Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Nvidia's Earnings [11.19.2025 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: November 19, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary CultBomb. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan. And for Gary Kaye, who's out today.

Today is Wednesday, November 19, 2025. We have a great show for you tonight. As always, I want to thank you very much for being here. Gary's doing his annual Thanksgiving. Feast at the Boys and Girls Clubs, Central Florida. If you'd like to participate or donate in any capacity, feels free to reach out to the Boys and Girls Club at Central Florida. I've been there before.

It is a fantastic event. Big thank you to Gary for doing it. He does it every year. I think he's been doing it now for 20 years, something like that, 15? I mean, a long time. So it's a really, really fantastic, fantastic event. So that's that. All right.

Let's talk about the show. as you know, this is a show about you and your money and all the fun points in between. Just as a quick reminder, if you don't get this show in your city, you can go to garyk.com, you can listen live or archive. We are live Monday through Friday, 6 to 7 p.m. Eastern. Also, you can, if I go too fast, so you want to rewind, fast forward, anything along those lines, you can listen at your convenience on any device anytime you want by rewinding it, all that stuff. Also on garyk.com, you can follow Gary on X or on Twitter just by pressing.

the button. You can subscribe to Gary's morning notes and directly to your inbox for free. You can also ask him about his money management services. Or if you want his premium service, subscribe to Convictionleaders.com. That's convictionleaders.com. You can take a free trial there to get updates throughout the day, get daily market webcasts. You can actually see the charts, see the market from Gary's eyes. It's a great service. And that's available at convictionleaders.com. All right, a lot happening today, so let's dive right in. We had a market bounce from oversold levels. Intra-day, we had a huge rally right after the open, and then sellers showed up, and then you basically erased most of the gains right around, let's see here, 930, you got a huge rally

right into about 1015, 10.30, and then all of a sudden it started to just move sideways, 1040-ish in the morning Eastern time. You start rolling over, and you gave back all of the gains from the open, previously, you know, just briefly turn negative for the day. This is the NASDAQ 100, right around 12.40 Eastern. You move sideways for a little bit and then you had a nice little rally towards the end of the day at 255-ish into the final hour where you rallied into the close. Now, it wasn't a strong close. We closed in the middle of the range and we're still below the 50-day moving average. What happened today, if you look at a daily chart of the NASDAQ 100, you know, we were oversold, we rallied into the 50-day moving average and then sold off.

So now what's happening just for today is that the 50-day moving average became resistance or a ceiling where normally you, you know, if you're above it and you pull back into it, it's support, it bounces off of there. Today what happened was you rallied hard right at the open. You came very close to that 50, if not touched the 50, depending on the index that you look at, and then sold off hard right away. So clearly there's some resistance right at the 50-day moving average for now. Navidia reports earnings shortly.

I'll cover that when the earnings are out in about 15 minutes or so. And then we'll talk about the implications and what that means going forward. The S&P 500, by the way, if you want, you can take a look. SPY did the same thing. Strong, hot open, rallied hard, hit the 50, sold off hard, and then tried to rally back by the end. of the day, closed in the lower half of the range. Little sign of weakness here.

You know, Gary's mentioned this that the complexion has changed. The character of the market has changed over the last few sessions here. More distribution days has shown up, which is heavy selling. And we broke the 50. And we broke below November's low. November 14 and November 7, those two Fridays, we had those big reversals off the 50. You know, now we're below it definitively for this week. And that, well, we're right.

We're below the 50 for this week. I mean, that's the big news of the week. We were above the 50 since pretty much April, May, and this is the first time we're actually below it. So we'll see. Either we get back above it, and this is just a short pullback in a bull market. We hit new highs, or we start heading lower, and then we have another, you know, the pullback gets deeper. As of right now, this appears to be, I mean, this is still early, anything can happen, a normal pullback within a blue. market. The S&P 500 is only 4% below, it's all time high. The NASDAQ 100 is 5.8% below its all time high. The Dow Jones Industrial average is 4.7% below its all time high. Now, the actions under the surface is not as clean as that would suggest because a lot of these gains are due to a handful of stocks or maybe two handfuls. You know, the market, these indices are market cap weighted. So,

with stock like Apple, which has a huge market cap, has a disproportionate weighting on the index. So same with the big stocks, like Apple, Qualcomm, Amazon, you know, the Mac 7 stocks, meta, Facebook, you know, so on and so forth. A lot of these big, big stocks, Google, disproportionately, you know, impact the market. But under the surface, if you look at the Russell 2000, for example, that is way below, I guess more, it's in a deeper pullback. It's now 7.7% below its recent high. So that's one of those things where that's 2,000 stocks.

So clearly the big cap tech stocks for the most part have been holding up the market. And under there there's been some deterioration happening, so on and so forth. So again, something to keep in mind. The market had a huge rally from April's low all the way up until October's high. And then Palantir, another AI institutional sweetheart, if you will, reported earnings in early November a few weeks ago and it gaped down. And then since then, the market and the AI trade specifically have been under pressure. A lot of these AI stocks have been falling because we're in a situation where you have just questions about valuations. You basically think of a rubber band.

You went too far too fast. it's normal for the market to pullback. If you look historically, 5% pullbacks in the S&P happen historically several times a year. Or they're normal. They're garden variety. They just, they happen. So right now we're down about 5% or a little bit less than that in the S&P, but the indices are about 5% pullback.

It's a pullback. Anything below 10% is considered a pullback. So 9.9 and lowers a pullback. 10% to 19% is correction territory. And then over 20% historically is considered a bare market. Now, just because you're down over 20% doesn't mean that you're going to go down 80. Just that's how typical Wall Street defines these corrections versus pullbacks, so on and so forth. So right now we're just pulling back.

The action under the surface, as Gary has mentioned, has gotten weaker in many, many names, which I can go through and share with you in a few minutes here to give you a deeper dive. But now it's just a little defense here. Defense is key. We had a huge run from April until October. Now the market's pulling back. I'm playing a little defense here. I don't want to push it.

Give the markets some time. If we get back above, when we get back above the 50-day moving average, then all of a sudden, and we start seeing the bulls getting control, some accumulation days start happening, up days on heavy volume, big up days that's actually stick, like Gary says. They don't sell off and close in the middle of the range, the lower half of the range like today. Then my, I guess, positioning will change. I'll lean more bullish and, you know, look to be buying stocks again and so on and so forth. But for now, Adam, I'm playing defense.

It works for me. And I'll just take it. Let this pull back, give this pullback some time. Maybe this pullback. That's it. It's over. Maybe we get a 4% or 5% pullback, 6% pullback, depending on the index you want, 7. And then all of a sudden we just hit new highs in the next few weeks.

That could happen. That's plausible. Think about, think in probabilities. It's not just what. possible, anything's possible, but you really want to stack the odds of success in your favor by looking at what's probable. And then rating it that way. What are the high probability events? When I cross the street and I look both ways, most likely I'll be okay if there's no cars coming and I cross the street in a quiet residential neighborhood where there's not a lot of traffic. All right,

I'll take that trade, if you will, you know, I can think in trades where it's risk versus reward. And I'll cross the street. Why? Because the risk of a car. coming out of nowhere a thousand miles an hour. I'm exaggerating. Just illustrate the point. And then hitting me or me falling or whatever, it's very, very low. I'm going to cross the street. As long as I've done my due diligence, fancy Wall Street word, do my homework, make sure I look both ways and then cross when it's safe. So the probability of me crossing in that hypothetical example, very high. Same thing with markets. Anything can happen. But what are the probabilities, right? Stack the odds of success in your favor. And you can use the 50-day moving average as a guardrail.

above the 50, Boino. Below the 50, no, that's simple. Above the 50, good. Below the 50, no good. So, for now, take our time. We'll see what happens with Navidia. The market, let's see here, we closed today.

The Dow was up 47 points to 46,138. The S&P is up 25 points to 6642. The NASDAQ's up 131 to 22, 564, and the Russell closed up about three points to 2352. Now, another thing that I'm watching are the number of breakouts versus the number of breakdowns. Movers up versus movers down, so on and so forth, because that gives me a look under the market's hood, which I'll get to in a few minutes. But for now, suffice it to say, we're pulling back, we're below the 50, I'm going to watch the 50 going forward.

Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. I want to thank you very much for being here. This is the one and only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells. working. You're listening to Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

In case you're just joining us from just any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen at your convenience for free on any device and rewind it and fast forward anytime you want. All right. So we started off by talking about market, market ended higher today, under the surface, it hit a wall by the 50, pulled back a little bit, close in the middle to lower half of the range, depending on the index you're looking at.

That's a subtle sign of distribution. Still a little bit of selling pressure. Nothing major, just a little bit. Now, under the surface, there's lots of something called internals in the market. There's number of stocks advancing versus declining. That's a popular indicator. Another internal people use are. are the number of new highs versus new lows. Another market internal, the number of stocks above the 50 day versus number of stocks below the 50 day, above the 200-day number of stocks below the 200-day, so on and so forth. There's so many internals. What I like to do when I built my own tool to do this is I love looking at breakouts, finding stocks breaking out. I love looking at stocks breaking down, setting up to breakout, and movers up and down, new highs, up and

and down, all-time highs, 52-week highs, which I'll get to all of that in a few minutes. So the tools available on breakouts and setups.com. Feel free to take a free trial if you like it. And it gives me real-time breakouts, real-time breakdowns, real-time setups, real-time movers, new highs, new lows, stocks gaping up, stocks gaping down, and extended hours. Breakouts, extended hours, breakdowns, extended-hour stocks up, extended-hour stocks, down. Right now, we're in the extended hours, right? The market's closed, but a lot of companies, including the video, are going to be reporting earnings. How do you make sense of all of that

madness? So it took me years to develop this, but I was able to get the data and organize it into an extended hour section on breakouts and setups.com. Again, this is my site, nothing to do with anybody else. and in it, I've got an extended hours breakout section. So I can see stocks that are breaking out in the extended hours. Extended hours breakdowns, same thing. Now, you can see stocks moving in the extended hours. There's an orange candle. It shows you the actual bar where the stock is actually moving, which I think is pretty neat.

So that's that also, extended hours up and extended hours stocks down. So in real time, after the close and before the open, every day, I can, click a button, see all the stocks going up before the open, all the stock's going down. All the stocks breaking out. All the stocks are breaking out. To me, it's very helpful. Stream. Now, another way of looking at the market internals is by looking at ratios is a fancy word,

which means look at relationships. So on breakout and setups every day, we've got breakouts that update in real time. We've got 17 stocks that broke out today. Okay. The breakdowns, we've got 49, even though the market was up. We only had 17 breakouts and 49 breakdowns. What does that tell you? You know what it tells me?

That the market, under the surface, more stocks are breaking down than breaking out. Not good. Or lean defensive or bearish, whatever word you want to use, right? Okay, little caution. Not the end of the world, but little caution. Next, we've got movers. I've got movers up and movers down. So I've got 192 movers up today, and I've got 299, almost 300 stocks moving down.

So 192 up and 300 down. But what does that tell me? Right away, instantly. Okay, there's more movers down than stocks moving up. Remember, the market folks, it's a market of stocks, a stock market, but it's also a market of stocks. So that's important. Why? Because if a lot more stocks under the surface are moving down, there's weakness there.

A lot more stocks are moving up. Hey, there's strength there. It's a tool that I use to just gauge, look under the market's hood, gauge the health of the market. After that, I like to look at stocks gaping up. Today, on breakout and set up. There were 15 stocks gaping up and there were 12 stocks gaping down. That's even. That's not a big sway here or there.

But the market was up today. So interesting to see that number not, you know, skewed more bullish. But, okay, I'll look at that. Number of 52 week highs, we have 52 of them today. 52 week lows, there's 131. So 52 stocks made a new one-year high, 52-week high. And on the downside, we had 131 stocks made 52-week lows. All-time highs.

We've got that date all. So 24 stocks hit an all-time high today and 33 stocks hit an all-time low. All right. So that's a good way of gauging the internals of the market where I can see under the surface how many stocks are breaking out. If you don't know what a breakout is, simple. Let's say a stock is a base or a fancy word moving sideways for extended period of time. let's say for three months. It's going between 50 and 55.

Every time it gets near 55, it pulls back to 50 and then bounces back to 55. Does that for a few months. Resistance is 55. Support is 50 in that example. If one day it breaks out above 50 on super heavy volume, that tells me that the big institutions are buying. Like Gary says, it's not Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob doing the buying. It's a big institution.

So the stock trades on average, a million shares a day. And that day, you have 50 million shares trading. It's clearly the big institutions gobbling it up. And it breaks above resistance. Two very powerful catalysts. Breakout above resistance, above the trading range. And did it on volume. Two very, very good catalysts.

Now, it doesn't mean every breakout's going to work. That's just, that's what a breakout is. What's a breakdown? Same thing but the opposite. 50 was support. Think of that as a floor. You broke right below 50. You're now at 48, 47, 46, 45.

And you crash through support on heavy volume. Again, big institutions are doing what? They're selling, not buying. Breakout is when they're buying accumulation. A breakdown is selling and distribution. Just inverse of each other. That's it. Now, in order for that stock to double, let's say he's trading between 50 and 55,

if he's going to go to 100, what has to happen? He has to break out about 55 first. That's the power of breakouts. Not all breakouts lead to new huge rallies, but all rallies begin with a breakout for the most part. Not every single one, but let's put it this way. all the stocks that I've studied in history, even in current markets, present market included, Palantir, Amazon, Apple, Tesla, Navidia, all these big true market leaders that have ginormous moves have breakouts, and many of them break out multiple times, stage one base, stage two base, so on and so

forth. That's the power of breakout. That's why I follow these breakouts like a hawk because I want to keep my finger on the pulse and stay in harmony with the market. It's my way of saying, stay in harmony with the market. Why? Because three out of four stocks follow the broader market. So if I'm in harmony with the market, I'm not fighting the tape anymore. In the old days, I used to fight the market. Oh, I'm right. I didn't understand this 20 years ago, 30 years ago. It took me a long time to learn, but it was my ego. I was making emotional decisions. In fact, that was even worse because I thought it was rational. I'm a logical person, right?

One plus one equals two. I know that. Look at my actions. Actions were emotional. So, superpower, learn how to make rational, not emotional decisions, but that's a whole other story.

Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I want to thank you very much for being here. This is the one and only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero chafed thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel. level credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

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The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome one. Once again to Investors Edge. In case you're just joining us

and miss any part of the show, you can go to garykate.com. And wind, fast forward, listen at your convenience on any device you want, 24-7, all for free. All right. So we spoke about the market. Had a big rally right at the open,

hit the 50 days, sold off in a nutshell. Okay, still has distribution, meaning some sellers are still in control. Okay. We have earnings coming out. Market closed. Let's talk about some of, earnings, sorry, Palo Alto Networks, PANW, I was looking at the Charter Palo Alto Networks,

a cybersecurity stock, PANW is a ticker, down about 6% after hours after reporting earnings. Navidia's earnings are out. Initially, it's up about 3%, about 4%, that's going to change a lot. They just came out. The VDIC's Q4 revenue at 65 billion plus or minus 2%. The estimate was 62 billion. So revenue beat. The Vitis C's Q4, let's see, third quarter data center revenue at 51.2 billion.

The estimate was 49.34 billion. Beat again. The, let's see here. Yeah, it's up about 4% now. So it's going to move a lot, but it was top line revenue came in 63.7 to 66.3.3. the estimate was 61.9. So 63 to 66 is bigger than 61. Stocks up after hours.

So, and we'll see what happens. The gaming revenue, 4.3 billion, the estimate was 4.42 billion. So a little bit light on the gaming revenue, but outside of that, the revenue came in higher. We'll see what happens with earnings. It just came out.

So Navidia's Jensen Hung says, Blackwell sales are off the charts. So he's bullish. Stocks up. That should be bullish for the market. We'll see what happens tomorrow on Thursday during the day and where Navidia closes. If, I mean, immediately when this company reports earnings after hours, it's thinner trader, traded, excuse me, it's not a lot of volume.

And you have a lot of movement. So you could be up. Navidia's up 4.5% right now. It could be down by tomorrow's opening. They have the earnings call. We'll see what happens. We'll see how the market reacts to it. You know, we've seen this many times before where a company initially is up,

goes down. Or in Palo Alto, Palo Alto Networks, PANW's case, I use a ticker just so I don't mess that one up, PANW's case, it's down 6%. I've seen it before where that's the knee-jerk reaction. By tomorrow, it could close higher. Actually, IBM just did that recently. It sticks out in my memory, because if you want to see a strong reaction to it, you can definitely see IBM, where it reported earnings,

sold off, closed the upper half of the range. It was down a lot in the after markets initially. And the next day was getting new highs, something crazy like that, where it was just, whoa. So, yeah, the headline here is Navidia shares rise after fourth quarter revenue forecast tops estimates. Now it's up about three and a half, three point two percent. So again, we'll see what happens. The AI demand is strong. That's going to counter some of the fears that we've seen with the AI bubble or the AI valuations. We're too high, so on and so forth. We'll see where the NVIDIA closes tomorrow. More importantly, how the market closes tomorrow and then for the week. Because if this thing just,

rallies and then sells off hard, then that's not going to be a good sign. If this rallies and continues to rally, that would be a great sign, especially for the market. If the NASDA can get back above the 50-day moving average and the SPP can get back above the 50-B moving average, we get some more volume here, that could take us into a strong end of year if we get there. But again, we have to get there. So other highlights from the Vidiya's report, Q3 Networking Revenue 8.19, estimate was 7.7. So it looks like they beat on many things. Cloud GPUs are sold out.

So he's got, yeah, just demand is super strong. So now the stock's up about 3%. So again, it moves a lot. And we'll see what we are tomorrow by the close because it gives people time to digest the numbers and also people to trade the numbers. That's super important. You know, it's up 2.9%.

So again, 2.5. We'll see what happens. If we sell off tomorrow or NVIDIA closes down big tomorrow and sellers show up, it's probably going to drag the rest of the market down to. Just that simple. A lot more obviously matters. It's not one stock. But decades ago, there was an old saying in the market before I was around it.

What's good for GE is good for the market. Why? Because at the time, GE was the Navidia of the day or Apple of the day. The last 20 years, Apple dominated with the iPhone sales. And it was one of the true market leaders. Navidia now is the institutional sweetheart or institutional darling of the AI stocks because it makes the chips that power all the AI pretty much all the generative AIs. At least they have been doing that recently.

Other players are trying to get involved as well. But, you know, Navidia is a big piece of that AI trade. Also, they use their chips for crypto. Crypto had a huge run. Even though Bitcoin, Gary's been all over this, but Bitcoin turned negative for the year, believe it was yesterday. And it's continued to sell off now. So again, a little risk off environment.

I think Bitcoin is down over 35% from the high recently. I'll check. But again, we'll see what happens. For now, this Navidia report, it's not up 15% or 20%. So, okay, I'm not expecting much tomorrow. That could change. And again, I'm open to anything. But for now, just take our time.

There's no rush. Yeah, Bitcoin, I have it down 30% from its 52 week, from its all-time high. hit 126,000, and now we're right around 90,000. So that's 30% correction. You know, that's a lot. Bare market. I mean, technically, anything more than 20%, like I said earlier, is it bare market. So you could say Bitcoin's in a bare market right now, down more than 20% from a high.

Lots of times it does that, not just Bitcoin, but big movers. And then it just shoots right back up again. That's why I use air quotes with the bare market because down 20 is not a lot. You know, even Navidia, I think last I checked. Let me check here. I wrote an article this morning for Forbes with Navidia and I saw Navidia was down. I think it was 12% from its high. So we see this a lot. I've seen 25, 30% and then just shoots right back up again, these high flyers. But for now, Navidia is up after hours. That's the important thing. It's doing its best to find support near the 50. For now, the 50 day moving average in Navidia and VDA is a ticker is being defended. And that's a good sign.

And pretty much, I was going to say all eyes are on the video, just about all the eyes in Wall Street are on the Vida's earnings because that's really the engine for the entire AI trade. And the AI trade, a lot of these AI stocks have been under a lot of pressure recently ever since Poundeer's earnings. So we'll see what happens, or just a few weeks ago in early November. We'll see what happens now going forward. Again, just be very simple, filter out all the noise, use the 50-day moving average as a guardrail. like Ray Dalio talks about. The semiconductor index, the SMH, is bouncing off the 50. Okay.

After the video's earnings, it's up a little bit after hours. Okay. Noted, right? Like Gary says, okay. We'll see what happens. But the NASDAQ is below the 50. The NASDAQ-Q-QQQ and the SMP is below the 50. Just watch the 50.

You can go deeper and go into the weeds and talk about this and that. The other thing at the bottom line is we want to stack the odds of success in our favor, the probability of success. semiconductors, the SMH pulled into the 50 and is now bouncing because of NVIDIA. Okay. Why am I mentioning that? Because it is one of the leading areas in the market. The semiconductor index, SMH, is up 38% year to date with this pullback.

It's down about 9% from the high from a few weeks ago. That's a huge move. 38% in the SMH just this year. The S&P 500 is up about 13% this year. So you can see a huge difference. So again, I'm looking for a little bit of. leadership. Why? Because by definition, those are the stocks that are leading the market higher. Even down days, their stocks breaking out. Not a lot, depending on the day and depth and how severe

it down it is, but I still want to find those stocks that are moving up, hitting new highs. I'm not just going to buy it blindly because it's hitting a new high or it's breaking out, no, but it's a good starting point. Focus on leadership. And Newton taught us what, an object in motion does what, stays in motion? Not always until an equal opposite force stops it, but in the markets, you know, the trend is your friend. So you find these leading groups like the semiconductors now and they're pulling back into the 50. It's a pullback in a bull market. Most of these pullbacks in bull markets are just that.

They're pullbacks. Every once in a while, the bull market ends and then you get a bare market that follows, a washout and you have a huge decline. But most of the time, these pullbacks are just that short in size and short in scope. We'll see if this becomes another short-term pullback or something more severe. Again, time. Like Gary says, let more cards come out of the deck. And not to fight the market. I can't emphasize that enough.

I've done that, made that mistake so many time for years. You know, they say a wise person learns some their mistakes and wiser person learns some other people's mistakes. I want you to be the wiser person and learn from my mistakes. Don't fight the tape. Don't fight the market. The tape is the old days. They used to have ticker tape.

Just don't fight the market. Instead, be in harmony with it. And there's only three things the market can do. It can go up. It can go down. Or it can go sideways. And that's it. Right?

So let the market go sideways for a little bit. It's normal. It's healthy. Let it pull back a little bit. It happens. All right. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Saurhan.

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Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the guesters' edge.

with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge in case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show. You can go to GaryK.com or wind fast forward at your convenience on any device. All right. So we covered a lot. First, the market. Use the 50-day moving average. Is it line the sand.

Above it is good. Below it, not good. Meaning accumulation distribution, buying, selling. You know, above it, the bulls are back in control. below it, a little bit of, it's under pressure. Rally's under pressure. That's it, just that simple. Navidia reported earnings.

Last I checked, the video's up after hours. You have about 3.3%. NVIDIA can, yeah, so far, the numbers are just strong. I mean, you can go any which way you want about it. The numbers are just strong. So right now we have a situation where all eyes are on the video or just about all eyes in the market are on the video. Why? Because it's the institutional sweetheart.

or darling of the market, especially for AI. The AI trade has been a leading group. Semiconductors, the SMH, leading group. And for now, this should be good. If it sells off tomorrow or the rest of the market sells off, that's not good. Maybe get a deeper pullback or deeper correction here. But for now, it's a good reaction to the numbers.

You're up 3.5% in one of the most important stocks in the market. Okay, move forward. So spoke about not fighting the market, spoke about emotional decisions versus rational decisions. In my book, it's called psychological analysis. If you haven't read it, you want to. By all means, please pick up a copy. It's on Amazon or Barnes & Noble. If you like it, please leave a nice review.

The idea there is in one sentence teach people how to make rational, not emotional decisions with their money. Most of us I've learned make emotional decisions, and we think we're making rational ones, but it's really emotional ones. Why? Because humans are emotional creatures, but we also have emotional side and logical sign. People buy things they like. I've yet to meet anybody that has had a huge purchase, bought a house, bought a car, bought a huge laptop or computer that they just despise. I mean, they just despise it. I haven't seen it. Just literally, never seen it. I've seen many times or they buy a stock they just hate. That I've seen happen because it's again, look at my language, the emotions behind it.

So part of the book was number one at Amazon every day for three months after I published it, largely because A, there's cartoons in it. It's the only investment book with cartoons. B, it's a third school of thought. There's fundamental analysis, technical analysis. There's psychological analysis, my little contribution to Wall Street. And then next, it teaches me people how to make rational, not emotional decisions. decisions with their money. So how do you do that? Adam? Well, there's lots of ways, but one of the

easiest ways is understand we make emotional decisions. Think about your biggest purchase ever. Did you like it? Did you love it or did you absolutely despise it? Most likely you liked it or you loved it. Think of a positive emotion can be associated with that huge purchase. I mean a massive purchase. I mean buying a stick a gum or, you know, even buying a, just buying big, big price tag where impacted you, right? So our money, people are emotionally attached to their money. So when you're making decisions, understand that the default setting, it's an emotional decision. Now, you're going to find logic to justify it, not walking around saying people just buy what they like with no logic. No. There's something called confirmation bias in psychology where we have cognitive

biases. If you have a mind, you have biases. It's just that simple. I want to know what they are. I outlined a lot of these in the book. But one of them, it's the confirmation bias. I've made a decision. I'm going to find logic to confirm my decision. That's already made because I made the decision.

And a lot of this happens without us even realizing it. So, okay, if that's the case, how do I protect myself? Guard rails. Do the work in advance. This way you're prepared.

This way you're not caught up in the emotional, oh, stocks up, stocks down, boom, buy it, and then sell it. And in out, in out. There's no plan. find inflection points that matter. Points in the chart.

Breakout points, breakdown points, maybe resistance points, maybe moving averages, trend lines, whatever works for you. Find something where it becomes a catalyst. Something has changed that warrants action. And that's it. Before you enter, no. Answer these three questions. Know where you can exit if you're wrong. Know that statistically most trades don't work.

And that's okay, providing you keep the loss small and you let the winners run. And know where you're going to, how much you're going to risk. So where are you going to enter? Where are you going to exit if you're wrong? And how much are you going to risk of your portfolio? That's it. Those are my questions. And then I'll look at the stock or look at the investment opportunity or the decision I'm going to make.

It applies to everything. Thinking trades is how I think. It's like a trade. Everything boils down, every decision to a simple risk versus reward. It changes depending on the actual decision, of course, and the impact of it and so on and so forth. But the whole idea is understand, okay, there's two sides of our mind, right? The logical side, the emotional side. Usually we're buying things, we're buying stocks with an emotional bias that impacts or clouds of judgment.

And don't take my word for it. Just look at your actions. Look at the actual actions you're taking. Not the words you're saying of what you think about yourself. Look at the actual actions. So a helpful way, another helpful tool is the post analysis. Print out your trades. When you buy something or take a screenshot, write down the reasons why you bought it.

And then why you sold it. And then have two folders, a winning folder and a losing folder. Winning trades go in one folder, losing trades going the other folder. Do that for 12 months, 18 months. I can't guarantee it, but I almost guarantee I'm pretty confident here that you're going to come out learning a few things about yourself if you do it consistently. Right. Someone said a great line to me one time.

He goes, we're not buying and selling stocks. I said, what are you doing? He goes, we're buying and selling risk. It's risk versus reward. And do it with relentless consistency. Anything that you want to accomplish in life, any goal you have, any thing that you want to do to improve, to grow, to get better, that lights me. up, all that stuff, the personal growth. We upgrade our cell phones all the time or software on the

computer. To me, it's I'm the user. Thinking myself as a character. I want to upgrade the user. And that I just light up like a Christmas tree on because it's life changing. One nugget can, wow, can totally change everything. I just read the other day that life rewards action, not intelligence. A lot of smart people get in trouble, especially in the market. But it's what action are you taking? emotional decisions, rational ones, so on and so forth. Can you learn from your mistakes? Mistakes are teachers, not enemies. Again, mistakes are teachers, not enemies. So I believe that's all the time we have for today. As always, we want to thank you very much for being here. Thank you to Gary for his amazing Thanksgiving that he does every year. And this is all our time.

This is the one and only Investor's Edge. Thank you very much. bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garyk.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with

code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital1.com for details.