Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - OIL Down...A Good Thing!

Episode Date: June 22, 2022

More Info At: http://garykaltbaum.comMore

On eBay, every find has a story. Like if you're looking for a vintage ban tea. Not just a tea. The band tea. You wore it everywhere. Until your BFF stole it. Now you're on eBay. And there it is.

Same tea from the same tour. The things you love have a way of finding their way back to you. Especially on eBay. Where else can you find that mint trading card you searched everywhere for? Or your first car? The one you wished you never sold. It has to be eBay. Shop eBay for millions of fines, each with a story.

eBay, things people love. Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum, straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Wednesday to 22nd of June, 2022.

I'm always asked, can you please tell us what time you're on the next day on television? So just let you know 9 a.m. tomorrow with Varney and Company on Fox Business. Just let you know and I'll try to remember every day because I'm pretty much on every day at certain times in either Fox Business or Fox News. Okay, get that out of the way. Ladies and gentlemen, before we get into the markets and today and all that fun stuff, what was it about five or six months ago? First off, you know, about 18 to 20 months ago, I started worrying about inflation, right? And the beginning of 21 bubbles popping, about five months ago, I'm going to guess it was about five months. Maybe it was six, give or take.

I started the show by saying, we are now going to do a whole show for the next two days on the economy and your job. and I think each day we spent five minutes on the market and I talked about the economy and your job and at the time I explained to you my simple worries that inflation will create deflation and it's pretty simple if everything you buy costs more but everything you buy costs more but everything you own drops, you got that big gigantic one-two punch. If you're a business and everything through the food chain is going up, and because of that, you are either selling less of something or making less on something, the outcome would be, the outcome that always.

occurs fewer people employed it's simple logic you know we can simplify it but no need to if you're in any business you know this it's just logic any owner of business when business goes down from high levels and at the high levels you had a certain amount of employees and business goes down so far you know you don't need that amount of employees now to be clear. There are companies that will not get rid of employees. They're that loyal. They'll eat it. But when all is said and done, companies are accountable,

whether it's shareholders, owners, you name it. So we did two shows on you. And we basically stated to you, make yourself indisposable. Make yourself the best at your company if you're working for someone or a company. Make yourself the go-to person, the one everybody looks to, the one that works the extra couple of hours when need be. Whatever that takes because it was my expectation that eventually and unfortunately unemployment. would start ticking up and we didn't know where it would come from we just knew it would come from and now we're seeing it and in the logical places you're seeing it in the whole crypto business

bubbles have popped businesses way way way way down and you've got to get rid of people base, their sales were down over year, over year, 35%. Guess what? Fewer people. It is now rumored, I'm not sure if it's been definitive. J.P. Morgan, going to lose, am I reading this right, a thousand plus people in their mortgage business? Why?

Mortgage applications have fallen off a cliff. It's just all very simplistic. It's all very simple. And the worry is, and it's a simple worry, it feeds on itself. It's a simple worry that you get into a vicious cycle that feeds and feeds. And what we mean by that, it's again simple. The more people that lose their jobs, the more people that are less apt to spend. The more people less apt to spend, the more people lose their jobs.

And so on and so forth. Thus, the worries. So we did two shows on that. And look, we don't know what that meant to you. We got a lot of feedback on it. we hope you listen to it very carefully because when you are working for others you got to make yourself indispensable you got to be that person the last person they would want to get rid of that was our thought process unless of course if you own the business you're the one that has to

make all the decisions so i'm just letting you know we're starting to see a little bit of it not a ton But I'm also letting you know, and this is the important part that I'm going to be nice and say the people at the Central Bank and Janet Yellen don't understand because they keep telling us that the job market's strong. But I know as a fact, the job market is the last thing to go. And why is that? Because businesses just don't fire. they start letting loose when they have real confirmation that they must get rid of people. Because what you don't want to do is you have a downturn and you get rid of too many people and then it comes back very quickly. And you've got to go higher back again.

And I don't know if you know this, but it costs more to hire than to keep. that's why it's really the last thing the last leg of trouble so i'm just letting you know as a a little warning shot and to be let me repeat really don't know if it turns into something real bad how far it goes but every one of you should start you know pulling out the measuring stick of your industry, of your location, where you are on the totem pole, take a real close look at how you are looked at, how are you thought of when you are working for other people. Because there's a chance here it's going to be of quite import in the months ahead, especially in some of these areas that got bubbled up

because of the largesse of one man in his whims and his band of merry men and women that followed him like Lemmings and we hope each and every one of you have no problem because I've lost the job in the past and I can tell you that was a pretty crappy couple of months I've had a job mostly throughout my life, but for a couple of months I didn't, and it was really no fun. And I can only imagine people that go from working every day, getting a solid paycheck, knowing there's something there to getting an unemployment check, and now having to go on LinkedIn and your rolodex.

And by the way, on that note, make sure you have a damn good roller decks. You got that? That's the other thing I should have mentioned. I don't think I ever did. Have a good roller decks. You never know when it'll come in handy. So anyway, we just wanted to start with that today.

Just seeing a little bit of this, that, and the other. thing on that and it's of note up next more on that the markets other things and other stuff this is one only investors edge hi i'm gary colbaum hosted a nationally syndicated radio show investors edge we're not just handsome radio people we manage investors money for a living specializing in fee-based discretionary money management no big commissions just a fee on the assets that's managed we also provide a full range of personalized services including retirement planning for fixed income and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal

goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-422-559. That's 8859. That's 8859. That's 888-422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Colbomb Capital Management. Volatility is hitting retirement accounts and savings across the country. More Americans are exploring physical gold and silver for added diversification during unpredictable economic periods. Preserve gold offers straightforward education on how precious metals can be included in NIRA.

Text IHeart to 50505 for your free wealth protection guide, and with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Online reviews say I'm steep, rocky, and a difficult trail. Next time, I'm going to say, not if you're driving a Toyota truck. We know what we're made of, Toyota Trucks. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. This promises to be fun.

Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So let me just state for the record. I'm not bringing all this up on the economy and jobs to scare. Those that know this show, those that know me, we deal in the world of reality.

we do not deal in the world of fantasy when it comes to the economy, jobs, markets. Unfortunately, we believe there are just a lot of Pollyannas out there. Everything's great. Everything's wonderful. Everything's good. They'll look at you straight in the face and it's raining on them and they'll tell you it's sunny out. We've got to stick with the real. And what I am seeing right now, let's stalk Wall Street.

three months ago, and I speak to recruiters, three months ago, recruiters were very busy. There were a lot of job to be filled by Wall Street. It's completely dried up. Wall Street stopped dead in its tracks on new hires. And I'm talking about back office, I'm talking about compliance, operations, things like that. Why would that be? Of course, markets are down. That means trading's down.

Profits are down. Hey, let's cool the jets on more people. And of course, there are some jobs that have to be filled here or there. If they lose somebody in tech, they got to fill the tech. But that's a worry. And then you have real estate. So it is now out there. I don't know if it's definitive.

Let's see. I'm just going to Google JP Mortgage. JP, yeah, mortgage. Morgan. and yeah you know you can't type and speak at the same time jp morgan firing mortgage people let's see what comes up lays off hundreds in home lending after the rate surge and they don't come up with a number hundreds usually means 500 to a thousand so think about this and again we simplify things here you got a mortgage business jp morgan and the mortgage business has fallen

off a cliff. I don't know if you know this, but mortgage applications just gone with the wind. And a lot of these people, I don't know if the term is clerk. And I do not use that in a derogatory fashion. I know some people do. But these are people that take applications, speak to people on the applications, walk them through the applications, take them to the next department, which is the, you know, meeting with the bank or the actual the lending of it. You walk through the process. That's stop dead in its tracks. So let's say you had a thousand of these people. It's done.

It's over for now. Well, you hope it's going to come back, but what are you going to do? Keep paying 1,000 people when you only need, let's say, 500. No, you have to address it. And in case you don't know, it's not J.P. Morgan. It's that division of J.P. Morgan. And guess what? The head of that division is accountable to the mothership.

And when the mothership says to the person who's running the mortgage division, hey, why do you have this many people when we did this many mortgage applications four months ago? And now it's down 75%. Guess what? They may replace that person. The crypto, as I stated, that one's more of a gimmy. Well, mortgage is a gimmy, but crypto is a gimmy. They brought out Robin Hood, they brought out Coinbase to trade bubbles.

Now, we knew they were bubbles, but everybody else was caught up in the bubbles. When the bubbles pop and business goes to heck in a handbasket, guess what? Robin Hood sales, year over year, down 43%. So let's just say J.P. Morgan had to let go of 500 people. And they're in the mortgage business. And they can't find another job because that's what everybody else is doing. Guess what they go on? Unemployment.

But unemployment doesn't keep you afloat. It's a band-aid. And what are you going to do if you don't have a job? And you're on unemployment. Well, you may not be going out to. Delphrisco's for a big prime porterhouse steak. You may be going to the supermarket and still paying up for food, but you're watching your dimes. You get where I'm going? I'm simplifying, but what if it really starts to roll? That's how it works. In Manhattan, and I'd even know

this till I was at Manhattan again for the first time in a while, it's like dead there on Fridays. because you know what people are doing. They have the choice of staying home and working from home. Of course they're going to do it on the Friday. And what was interesting is one of my favorite restaurants in New York. I got in without a reservation. In New York City on a Friday night. Why?

So another part of the equation. And that's why we're bringing it up to you. We don't want any of you who work for others losing their job. And that's why we told you months ago, make yourself indisposable, make yourself the go-to person, make yourself that one where they cannot let you go or they are screwed if they let you go. We were not just whistling Dixie when we were doing that. And we hope you continue to listen. Why? In case you don't know, we have a very good understanding of business cycles.

We have a very good understanding of human nature. We have a very good understanding of how companies think, and not just think, but have to think, when things turn the wrong way. And again, we are not predicting anything except to say, as we said months ago, all the ingredients for trouble are there. and we're starting to see it in real time. And hope upon hope, it does not feed on itself. Hope upon hope. And the little good news, oil prices are down 10% in the last few days.

Good news, that could help. Interest rates on the long end have gone from 3.5 to 3.15 on the 10 year. That could help. But the train may be running down the tracks. and it is no help that you have an administration that talks higher taxes, windfall taxes on oil companies,

and all kinds of other crap. Up next, today's market, a little bit more. Thanks for being here, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours.

The most common side effects that may be experienced while using biz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer, dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if biz is right for you. Learn more at viz.com. Every day, the headlines shift, but the uncertainty never seems to fade. From rising geopolitical tensions to record U.S. debt and ongoing debates about inflation and money printing. Americans are watching economic forces that feel far beyond their control, and for many, that instability is showing up in retirement accounts, personal savings, and long-term financial plans. More people are taking a closer look at options that don't depend on Wall Street. Physical gold and silver have been used for generations as real

tangible assets during unpredictable moments like these. They're not about replacing existing investments. They're about adding a layer of diversification that has historically helped provide balance during volatile periods. Preserve gold focuses on education, giving everyday American straightforward information about how precious metals can fit into a retirement strategy, including options to hold them inside an IRA. To get your free wealth protection guide, text IHeart 2, 50505. And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Text eye heart to 50505 today. With the power and endurance of Toyota trucks, you can go to the most incredible places, like this valley, where the echo does different voices.

Hello! Hello! Hello! We know what we're made of, Toyota Trucks. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with Dad.

The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Hey, yo. I must tell you, you know what I do every day just to give you an idea? First, you know, at night we're scanning and I'm looking at what the market does.

And the market opens. And, you know, so you know, the Dow was down 400 early, NASDAQ down 100. And then we were up 200 and up 130 on the NASDAQ. That's how we. the swings were today. Jay Powell was speaking on the hill and just nauseating me, but not even Jay Powell nauseating me. The people asking the questions nauseating me. Imagine in one room, the people, the politicians that brought us the 30 trillion of debt, asking Jay Powell, who is printing nine trillion of money, screwing you savers, and creating all kinds of havoc in the

same room going back and forth. Nauseating. Anyway, so when the market was up like 100 today and the NASDAQ was up 40 or 50, it then got up 200 and up 100. When it was up 150 and moving up, I wrote a note and say, yeah, we're probably up and up 400 today. That's what I wrote. the Dow finished down 47. Anyway, the market wrap is brought to by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out.

Investment-dash-models.com. And by the way, the Dow dropped like 100 and some odd points in the last five minutes after going up 100 and some odd points in five minutes. Welcome to my world. So the Dow was down 47. the S&P 5, NASDAQ 16, NASDAQ 100, 19. The semiconductors just weak all day. Or just underperforming down 29. Transports 147.

Advanced declines 1922 on the New York. A little bit worse on the NASDAQ. There are no new highs, about 530 new lows. But, you know, we're pretty decent at understanding what the market's telling us. And let me just tell you what the market's telling us today. Economies in trouble. Well, first off, oil prices were down today markedly again. That would be number one.

That would be good news, right? But what if the oil market is saying big trouble to come? You catch my drift? What if the market is saying? The economy gone in the crapper. That's not good news, is it? But nevertheless, oil prices were down nicely, which is great at the pump. The 10-year dropped from 3.307 to 3.156.

That can't be bad, right? But what if the market's saying, well, this is happening because recession? Well, let me go to the next part of the equation. Transports again weak? economically sensitive the hotels again very weak remember they were deer down 11

caterpillar down 9 agco down 4 in change J.B Hunt Old Dominion the truckers land star down the commodity stocks trashed and we warned you about that

the oil stocks trashed we warned you about that that's friendly up what are semiconductors for me they're economically sensitive growth and the economically sensitive part is a worry sign why what do chips go into everything so if there's less of everything being sold so not good there and economically sensitive stuff like the chemicals and and stuff like that, trucks and parts and heavy-duty stuff. And retail sucked today, the consumer.

So there are people emailing me. How does the market not go up big today with oil prices plunging and the 10-year plunging? Because when the market went down, it was because of the opposite. Well, we think that the consumer. component of the economy. Thus, we are talking to you more about the economy. And we'll continue to talk about what we think is best to talk about as we move forward. And we really, especially you employees, if you're an owner of your business, you're the decision maker.

Put yourself in your boss's shoes. Would you keep you? Are you expendable? Are you indisposable? And answer yourself honestly. Just food for thought. Other things going on today. The coins did.

And I got a lot of feedback from yesterday. And I repeat. And I have no... The guy who owns my... Micro Strategy who has watched his stock go from $1,315 to $170, made like it was no biggie yesterday. As we've told you, they turned it just into a crypto hedge fund there that just owns a bunch of, and they're getting buried. So those that are emailing me, asking, do you feel it's of value or cheap? And I would ask back, would you hear that from?

Well, somebody on TV. I would ask back to the emailer, tell me what the value there is on that coin. What is it based on? They would answer back, I don't know. And then I'd answer back, then why would you even consider investing in it? That's the emails I have right now. And we understand why. Those tout artists are very good.

Very, very good at it. it's dropped 80% before. In fact, it's happened three times. But the bubble never popped. This time it's popped. How do we know? They came out with 19,000 coins. Most of them are zero.

Are we telling you it's never going back up again or even going to bounce? No, we're not telling you that. I don't know what I'm meeting for dinner tonight. What I'm telling you, know your risk. And if you decide to, what's your downside? What's your fail safe? What are you going to do to make sure

if it drops another 50% that you're not part of it? And by the way, that's in anything you invest in. And unfortunately, the Massives and Wall Street have not done that on many occasions. So that's your little crypto talk today. and it was a really rough day for crypto in that it's not even bouncing now it's just feels like it's dead comatose in spite of them and i must tell you i've never seen people lose so much money that are so confident if i ever lost 70 or 80 percent of my money in something i ain't putting a

smile on my face and by the way that would never happen happen. We have fail safes. We don't screw around with the downside. So we hope we're giving you a little bit of the real in here because quite mui importante right now at this moment. And Neil Cavuto a little bit ago did a 30-minute interview with one of the White House advisors and it was really down to oil and the mixed signals from the administration. administration on oil. And the amazing thing is the dude from the administration says, oh, we're not, we're not browbeating the oil companies.

We're not. That's all they've done. Up next. This, that, and the other thing, or whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one known the investor's edge. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours.

The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer, dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. If you've been following the news, you know the world is dealing with a level of uncertainty that isn't going away anytime soon. Inflation pressures, global tensions, and the highest U.S. debt levels on record continue to influence markets day after day.

And the result is familiar to anyone checking their retirement balances or savings accounts. Volatility has become the norm. In times like these, people often look for ways to strengthen their financial foundation. Physical gold and silver have served that purpose throughout history. They're real assets that exist outside the digital and financial systems that tend to fluctuate during economic stress. They're not a guarantee and they're not a shortcut to wealth, but they can offer diversification when things feel unpredictable. Preserve gold is committed to helping Americans understand their options with simple educational information, including how precious metals can be held in an IRA. For your free wealth protection guide, text IHeart to 50505.

And with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Don't wait. Text Eyeheart to 50505. Online reviews say I'm steep, rocky, and a difficult trail. Next time I'm going to say, not if you're driving a Toyota truck. We know what we're made of, Toyota trucks. We're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. and walk once again to investors edge. So, markets. You ready?

I really have no new yearly highs. The only areas that were really holding up, remember, all I kept saying was if you had to own energy, energy, energy, that is topped out and topped out pretty damn good. We're talking the stocks here. They've topped out all the commodities. Some coal names have held up pretty well. They had a rough day today. and as far as any leadership whatsoever, there's none. And it's very often, excuse me, this doesn't happen very often.

I think maybe once or twice, where I've got nothing. You know, we knock it down to 200 sectors. I don't have a sector in bull mode. Not one. Now, I've said to you, the Chinese stocks, the 8,000, ADRs, American Depository seats, they trade here. They're the only things with the potential bottoming process going on. I use the word potential because I'm not sure just yet.

And we also have to worry about a Chinese government that's insane. After that, I got squat. You had a good reaction to some Medicare payments yesterday to United Health. It was up another nine today after being up 28 yesterday. That sticks out. But I got news for you. Up $37, and it's still down 60-some-odd bucks from mid-Apr. But that goes in the file manager, and it lifted some of the other managed care slash HMOs.

That's not in bull mode. It was 37 bucks a recovery in two days off of some Medicare news. And by the way, Einstein couldn't figure out the Medicare news that I was reading. It had to do with payments and they give you all kinds of acronyms. I don't know what the heck. And I have to look it all up. And if this happens, that happens. All I know is the market liked it.

But that was after a hundred point drop. And then as I do my scans every night with no bias, just remember, I have no bias. Show me a bull market. I don't care what it is. I got bupkis. I got bupkis. Now things we do see that are not in bull markets, but maybe the worst is over. You know all those bombed out stocks on the growth arena that topped out all last year into November,

with a lot of them down 60, 70 percent? A bunch of them have stopped going down over the last few weeks. They have found an area I'm done. For now, doesn't mean they're not going to break from those levels again to the downside. But for now. So guess what we're doing? We're watching them. Why?

Do you know how we knew everything was topping? Because they all topped it once. November. There are few that led up to that. What if we see all of them, or a good amount of them, break above these levels they've been putting in in bombed out lows.

Now, they're certainly not leadership, but we wouldn't mind catching bear market lows, but I can tell you, we're not there yet, not there. But I'm letting you know we're keeping watch on them. Big time. Big watch. Foreign markets, yuck. And when I tell you, and it's amazing I can even say this,

the people running central banks in Europe and Japan, they're worse than Powell. much worse. They're insane. They're worse than Powell. And of course, Europe used to be a guy named Mario Draghi, who now, I don't know what the title is in Italy. President of Italy?

Because he was Mr. Easy Money, printing money, and the markets were good at that time? Not anymore. Now they got Christine Lagarde who ran the International Monetary Fund, the IMF, and she's a nightmare. of easy money, distorting everything. And may I say crushing the euro. And I must thank her for that because I'm going there next week and it's much cheaper to go to Europe.

Yay. Even the pound has come down a lot. That would be England. I think when I go to Croatia, it's the Kroner. I'm going to have to check. Yeah, I think so. I think you can still use the euro there, though. So anyway, foreign markets, no help.

No help. And just so you know, every day, when I scan, I'm looking for outliers. Anything, any sore thumbs, give me a sore thumb sticking out. I got a handful. Eli Lilly, trading above the 50-day moving average in a trading range going back, about three months. tiptoe through the tulips. Auto zone. Six-month trading range, but up just a little bit off the highs.

I keep it on my screen. Are they in bull mode? No. But they're holding up. And I got newsfe in this market. Holding up is really good. But I can count on one hand. Here's a symbol you probably don't know.

United Therapeutics. THR. That's near New Yearly highs. Infectious disease, therapies, and stuff like that. Smaller cap. Doesn't trade a lot. It's on my screen. I'm already running out of names. That's your leadership. I can't even go further. Therein lies the issue. There will come a day when I get on this show and say, this symbol, that symbol, this symbol, that symbol, this one, that one, this one, that one, I will promise you. We'll name them. With the usual disclaimer, we're not buying, selling, we're not advocating buying, selling, short, and covering. The shippers, we told you topped out three weeks ago, they've been crushed.

Agriculture, crushed. Remember, in bare markets, they get them all. Have a great evening, drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. It's simple. To be brief, make sure you hug your children. Good night, all. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryKK.com. Online reviews say I'm steep, rocky, and a difficult trail. Next time, I'm going to say, not if you're driving a Toyota truck. We know what we're made of, Toyota trucks. This message is. brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.