Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - OIL NOISY [01.14.2026]

Episode Date: January 14, 2026

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Coltbaum. You're host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you hear, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is the 14th of January, 2006. And I'm still getting used to saying 2026. Hope you're having a good day. As you know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you with now agenda, ulterior motive, or bias. We'll do the markets. They'll do the economy. Your job, your industry. The Morlocks in D.C. You know, they stopped talking about the debt and deficits, by the way. And one of those noisy days that that we must cover today because as we state, there is a hell of a lot of jello moving on the plate.

And that just simply means some of the action is wicked and wild, but mostly as we have stated to you about as news-driven market as ever. And it is because we have the most news, by the way, this is not a put-down. we have the most news-driven president ever, ever, by far. How much verbiage, the kind of verbiage. Some people call it transparent. Others would say maybe a little too much, but it's drop. We can just go back to April for the Liberation Day.

crashed the markets and then on the Monday they had to change the stance and it got leaked that they would change in their stance so they waited to Wednesday and went from massive tariffs

to not so massive and you know the rest of the stuff that we cover here but today especially news driven and it has to do with oil and Iran. But it also has to do with

we're going to be blunt again today on what not to own because the what not to own just worsens by the day. And it continues to be all the old favorites, all the mega cap,

I take that back, most all of the mega cap. tech. As we head into earning season, they're getting smoked continuously. On top of that, it is the software group. And I've had some people in the software industry email me and tell me the reasons why. And that's all well and good. Supposedly artificial intelligence is going to replace people. And when you replace people, you lose licenses. I'll go with that. But really, who knows? All we can do is tell you they are killing

software stocks starting with Microsoft. So, by the way, if you don't get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our X feed. And if you don't follow us, you should. If you'd like to email us, just be nice. By the way, we'll also post it on podcast apps and the biz TV YouTube channel. All right.

So let me start with, hopefully you've been listening on the avoid. In alphabetical order, let me describe Apple. It's only down 10% from the high. No big deal. But we're letting you know relative strength is head south, broke below the 50 day on a reversal. And the only thing it's got, well, let me say this. There are other things that are down 20 and 30 and 40. Broadcom.

By the way, these are all top eight stocks. Broke below the 50 day on earnings and can't get back above it. They've tried to rally at a couple of days in a stronger semiconductor market. Today, the semiconductors were very weak but came back strong at the close. The stock was still down 15 bucks today. Adobe, not in the top eight. Just a monstrous bear market for the stock that's been going. on for March of 24 and we've been telling you avoided since.

Salesforce.com. So that topped out in December of 24, 369. It's 239 now. And I have to tell you, on the last earnings report, to try to rally, and I have to tell you, at some big insider buying, and I have to tell you, yesterday it was squashed, and down, and down again today with a relative strength of 21.

And Dell Computer, not a top eight, just bearish, 168 to 118 as a recent. Microsoft, down another 11 bucks today and has broken longer-term support. The 200-day moving average and the lows of November and December between 465 and 470, close at 459 and changed today. Microsoft, that's a top five name. Meta used to be Facebook, down another 15 bucks today. Topped out, it's 800 approximately at 615. And recently rallied up, they had some news this, that, and they tried to get going even more and completely is rolled over.

Envidia only finished down 260 today. At one time today was down about five. rallied up late in the day, the NASDAQ will explain that in a minute. But, stock's done nothing since August, and it's off the high of 212, it's 1E3. And when I say a void, we're talking about new purchases. If you owned Nvidia right now, I don't know if I'd be a seller, but I got to tell you, if one more bad day, maybe I'd be saying it. Netflix, top 10, brutal bear market, one thing.

34 to 88 and no let-up. Oracle does not trade on the NASDAQ. I think it's New York. Topped out at 345 on monstrous numbers and monster predictions and monster backlogs. It's 193. And by the way, that's software. Qualcomm just topped out badly. Got crushed in the last few days.

SAP, a very important software stock. 313 to 238. Try to get going yesterday. They had it up to 255, reversed it down to 247, down another 8 today. Tesla, down another 8 today and living a little bit below the 50 day, not the end of the world. These are the biggest names, monster influences, and bearish phases of different levels. Simple as that. Listen to the names I just mentioned, and maybe it changes tomorrow.

know, we'll let you know if it does. But dang. And today it was actually worse. Until late in the day, the president said something, which we'll find out if it's true or not. And we'll get to that in a little bit. But I also got to talk software. We mentioned Microsoft, Salesforce.com, Oracle. I have to tell you, they are just blasting.

HubSpot, Workday, Service Now, crowd. strike, Z scale. Names maybe you don't know like a guide wire software, 272 to 170. This is areas we would avoid. Simple as that. And we've been telling you for a while on some of these big names, but software recently, go look at what they did to Autodesk in the last few. They're just murdering these things.

These are institutions, get me out of this industry. That's all I can tell you. We're just reading what's happening in the market and reporting to you. Get us out of this industry. And lower prices still has them saying, get us out of this industry as of the close today. So just letting you know. And the amazing part about this is the NASDAQ has not broken the 50 day and the NASDAQ Act 100 hasn't broken it, though it's teasing.

You got a little save at the end of the day from the press, but we'll find out soon if it was shooting at the hip. So the story goes, the president was having another one of his pressers, people standing behind them, people asking questions, and somebody asked the question about Iran, and Iran shooting their own citizens and executions also. Up next, what the president say and how did things react? This is the one only Investor's Edge.

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Firm. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, at 302 p.m., the president was asked about attacking Iraq.

And what's interesting is, and this is my problem, one of the questions was about that, and he goes, I don't know where you get that from, but the president in the last few days is saying, intimating the president, we're going to go into Iraq. Excuse me, Iran. Who might talk about Bush. Anyway, at 302, he was asked about the executions, the shootings, and the president states, oh, and by the way, oil prices shooting up again because of that.

The president states at 302. We have information that there's not going to be any executions, and they're going to stand down on the shootings. Oil prices tanked in a moment's notice. The NASDAQ, which was down 390, goes up like 120 points in two minutes. The Dow, which was, let's see, 490, got to get my bearings on the Dow. The Dow was never that bad today, but rallied up 100 quickly, and then back and forth, all on oil prices.

The USO, which is what I follow, that was sitting at 7516 within seconds, With 71.41. Now, you may not think that's big deal. It's a huge drop. And then bounced a little at the close. The problem is, if there are executions and more shootings, we'll see. The problem is the reports are there's still shootings. We'll find out soon enough. I hope the president is right. interesting enough on the day the NASDAQ dropped 238 points but at one time today

if I can get my bearings right 365 165 was down 400 the NASDAQ 100 was down like 440 finished down 238 and 276 respectively so still not a good day but held the 50-day moving average off of what the president said. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which hit 7598, and was down 150, closed down only 46.

All on the president's words, but it really didn't change much on those mega-cap tech names. and I think that they are such a huge influence. We've said this before that the big indices are going to have trouble really getting going unless they start performing again. Why? Because eight of them are 30-some-odd percent of the S&P and in the 60s of the NASDAQ 100.

And then add in the software. So just letting you know, specifically about those mega caps and the software. Just wanted to start with that. The semis, some of the glamour, which were very weak early, came back. They were still down on the day, but off the lows, I got to scan them. Other strength today? palladium platinum uranium anything with eum at the end coal the whole this whole commodity space gold and silver in spite of being ridiculously extended up again what's interesting to me is normally i would say to you oh we're screwed we're going to have big inflation but i'm pretty sure that

that the bond market would know that and the 10 year yield is not going up. In fact, it had a drop today. So Dow was only down 42. I think at one time was 200. Chevron was up. Johnson and Johnson's a new high. IBM down eight yesterday, up five today. Who the hell knows what's going on with that. But not really gargantuan movers today. Microsoft was down 11. That's your biggest mover. Amazon was down about almost six. Amazon has actually down from a year ago, which is quite interesting. The banks, poor reaction in Bank America,

poor reaction in J.P. Morgan, poor reaction in Wells Fargo, poor reaction in Citigroup that opens up today and finish down four. Tomorrow, I believe, is Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. So that wasn't good looking today. They broke the 50 day on Bank America, J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo. And pretty handily too. And on volume, that would not be Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob selling their stock. That would be the big institution saying,

we own too much in the banks. Let's lop off a few. oil prices. Oh, defense stocks, strong. Everybody likes a good war. The talk of, I don't even want to get into this Greenland thing. It pisses me off beyond the beyond. They campaigned for 10 years against neocons and interventionists, and they're the biggest neocons and interventionists ever. Well, second. And either you wonderful MAGA people, no, I'm not BS in you. And by the way, they were out here telling us what we have to eat today. Not forcing us, but telling us what we should eat. Yeah, that's what I want to hear from politicians. From Robert F. Kennedy. Yeah, you should be eating this, not this.

Kiss mine. Amazing. How did we get here? Oh, that's right. They won the election. Anything else sticking out? I mentioned the 10-year yield coming down. oil prices just reverse to the downside today,

but oil stocks still finish up but off their highs. And I think there's still some, okay, we'll see. As mentioned, defense stocks, that is from the president saying we should spend $1.5 trillion, not $1 trillion next year. But that ain't happening. But defense stocks are still reacting to it like, hellaciously.

and when I say that ain't happening, that ain't happening. Up next. What else is going on out there? It's Wednesday. No football picks yet for the weekend. We're 4 and 0, by the way. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off.

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The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,

sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more my podcast. microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself

for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. they bounced insurance stocks today that got trashed yesterday they bounced some financials today that got trashed yesterday

you remember they hit the credit card companies they were down again today pretty decently but mostly reversed into the green because let me repeat there's no way that's going to happen that the credit card company is going to be force to only charge 10%. No way. And you're actually seeing some pushback from even Trumpians in Washington, D.C. on that. Impossible. No way. Shape or form. So those reversed. And I've been thinking to myself, man, they smack the hell out of MasterCard. Should I just buy some here

fundamentally? Because there's no way that's going to happen. I haven't. But Mastercard hit 538 today, closed at 546. Visa hit 324, closed at 329. American Express hit 350, closed at 358. By the way, all still off the recent highs. Capital One hit 224, closed at 234. So they already had a few percent move off of today's lows. Mid-Camp. are up today small caps were up again today our commodity stocks pretty darn good advanced decline was pretty good also and the advance the climb was actually up on the NASDAQ with the NASDAQ down 238 NASDAQ 100 down 276 I'm gonna have to look that up because all I know is my left screen of a lot of NASDAQ is all red and of course the mega caps were all red today, every one of them. Some good red. No, big red. Good red is not good red is not good.

Good red is bad. And that's a little bit of what happened today. No doubt oil prices dictated some policy today. I continue to wonder about the gold and silver and that is and is that going to be a problem for the markets. That's not a big reach, just based on the past, but as of right now, all the markets are undergoing, a little pullback. I have yet to invest in any oils. They've been moving higher. I don't know how much, and I don't like news-driven everything. I think if we can get past this Iran thing, I think oil can tank. And then you're not going to want to own the stocks. I will tell you that under pressure because of the higher oil prices recently, airlines, cruise lines, hotels, travel related. But once oil tanked at 302 today, they bounced up,

but not a big fan. The Supreme Court was supposed to announce the tariff thing again today. They did not. Just stop teasing. That's all I can tell you. Now, my big question I get asked, if we attacked Iran, what would happen? Well, first off, if we did, it would be pinpricking. It wouldn't be this big, gigantic thing of a bob. It'd be pinpricking. But I also asked the question. If we did, what exactly do we go after? Are you going to do another operation and take out the head honcho top dog big cheeses? You know, Venezuela is just south of the U.S. there. How far is Iran from here? A bazillion miles away. And we obviously had good stuff on Venezuela and what to do. I'm not so sure we have the same for Iran, but then again, I'm not exactly in the no.

But I got to believe if we did go in, oil prices would spike even further, and I think that would put some pressure on. I'm just not sure. And maybe the president, I wish the president didn't speak up like that because if he's wrong, he's not going to look too good. And that's what I mean by sometimes you've got to zip it. To me, that would have been a good time to zip it. I would have said there's certain things that are going on that I cannot say. So that is an outlier at this point. By the way, the activists, the celebrities, not one, I almost cursed. Not one of them is speaking out for the Iranian people that are being killed about what the mullahs are doing, not one. And again, you know what it is? If it ain't the

Jews, it ain't the news. The good news is the media is reporting on it in the last couple of days. But the activists can go kiss mine. And the celebrities kiss mine. They can all rot. It's amazing to watch. They'll protect Iran, this place where the government's the destroyed it, but piss all over Israel. Anyway, there you have it. In a nutshell. What am I going to be looking for? You know, I love the glamour stuff.

I love that. The big growth, but they have been trading so wide and loose. I have this theme in my mind. If I see stocks trading up 20% and then down 18, and then up 14 and then down 9, And those are daily moves. I'm not tempting fate. And that's what a lot of them did. And are still doing.

Something like an L-I-T-E that has been a big strength. Not making this up. Went from 400 to 342 one day. The next day it went back to 400th. The next day it traded between 402 and 36. The next day it traded between 395 and 342. I can go on. I tend to just take a step back.

We look for tight trading in the market. Yeah, that's Winston Barkin. He's at the office today. Tight trading in the market. And in these areas, we are not getting tight trading at this juncture. If they tighten up, I will be thrilled. I am in hopes they tighten up, give us some good setups so we can jump all over them. That would make Gary happy.

But again, I want to go back. I think the president's put in a position now that we, hopefully he's right. We want freedom across the world. Hopefully he's right. And we're rooting from another point. I've been getting a lot of emails on the Fed thing. Let me repeat our theme. And in case you don't know, we get no credit for it, and we should.

We nailed Jay Powell when he printed to $9 trillion, took the 10-year down to half percent, with conjured up money to buy bonds, and we came on the show every day and said, too much money chasing too few goods is inflation and an unimaginable amount of money chasing nothing we're going to have soaring inflation went to 9%. When did inflation start coming down? When he stopped printing. When he had to raise rates because of the inflation he created. Well, what's happening now?

He took rates from 5 and a quarter down to 3.5 and a half and that's fine. But he's now buying bonds again. He's not letting the old bonds run off. And you have a president that wants 1% fed funds. What do I think happens? That's up next. On this, the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off.

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benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as, podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better,

Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In The Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. By the way, this is a lot. what I love about the president. There are people now out there saying that was all misdirection and we are going to attack Iran in the next day. I don't know what to say. It's just, it's so damn noisy out there. What I just try to do is just put my freaking head down and watch my stuff. And if I I'm wrong, be wrong fast and small. If I'm right, hopefully, they run them up.

That's all. But with this president, and by the way, again, this is not a put down, his press conference today was more than Joe Biden had in a year. And by the way, I will never forgive Joe Biden for opening up the borders the way he did on purpose. I will never forgive him for that. You could not be a worst defender of the country on what Joe Biden did. All right, let's go back. So, why did inflation pick up when Powell printed?

It's a simple rule, too much money chasing too few goods. Go look it up. But it wasn't just too much money. He printed to $9 trillion. took all that and interfered with the biggest market in the world, the bond market. It was fake money. And he distorted all price and yield, screwed you the saver. Remember you getting 0% on your money markets.

It was a gimmy. Inflation. Inflation is a monetary outcome. Central bank outcome. Too much. but Donald Trump is going to take over the central bank. I don't care he puts in. It's going to be a puppet.

Now, that central banker is only one vote out of 12. So they have to have some sort of majority. So it still has to be worked out. But we've had all these freaking executive orders. I don't know what they can try and pull. All I am just saying, very simply, if they go too easy again and the market doesn't want it, inflation's going to come back and then who's going to get the blame.

Simple as that. Now, it's become easier money, but the bond market is cooperating. Here's how I will know we're getting in trouble again. The 10-year yield have to go above 4.2, then 4-5, then 4-8. That's how I'll know. The market is a living, breathing thing. It has ears. It has ears.

It has a nose. It has a mouth. It hears, it smells, sniffs out, and then it reacts. The mouth is where it moves. That's my worry. how will I know we're going to be in trouble if the 10 year yield goes up while they're lowering rates the good news is right now while they've been lowering rates 10 years been stable love it I'm all for it but I know how this works I've studied it I understand it I get it we nailed it I'm hoping, don't know if it's going to happen, one day I can have a seat at the table with the prez on this, and I'll show him it. He may not listen, may not care, may blow me off, at least I'll have the opportunity to show him what happened when Powell did what he did.

That's when he should have been fired, and that's a little bit of that. But so far, so good, and mortgage rates have been coming down a lot. little bit because the president had his people, I guess do Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy up mortgage bonds? What's the problem with that? He's saying he's doing it for affordability. Really? But if you increase demand because of that, that's a problem. Prices go back up and it becomes even more unaffordable to buy a home. So kind of sort of darned if you do, darned if you don't syndrome, just letting you know. So that's how things work. I wish they are listening to me. I doubt they are. But that is basically the story. If government does too much,

It is going to cause distortions because eventually the free market will bite back. I can promise you. I can promise you. What's the line about? Don't screw with Mother Nature. Don't screw with the markets. And that's a little bit of that. So, Wicked Day, Wild Day.

You know what we think on the avoid front? The good news is big indices fine, mid-small's fine, transport's fine, commodities fine, oil's picking up, defense, news-driven, and until the big indices take out the 50-day moving average to the downside, we call. We just wish there was less than them, less of them. But that is wishful thinking at this point in time. you all have a great evening and drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family and your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise they will be well. Thanks for joining. I'm going to work out. Good night all. Bye bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

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That's Tommyjohn.com, CodeCompert. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.