Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Oil Oil Oil [10.12.2026]

Episode Date: October 12, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colp. I'm your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.

It's October 12th, Columbus Day, 2006. Hope you had a good weekend. I kind of sort of had a good weekend in that my Giants should have lost the game. then they should have won the game, then they should have lost the game, and the idiots running Washington commanders just totally screwed up the end of the game, and I got a tie,

and Philadelphia lost, and Dallas lost, so it was a good weekend for my Giants. Yes, when it's football season, that's how we roll. Anyway, on the other end, man, and, you know, I've gotten your emails and stuff,

What a void that my Winston is now in dog heaven. That all the things that you are used to, your habits with your dog, is now gone. I am so used to sitting in a certain chair, my archie bunker chair, and my dog barking at me to take, put him on the side and pet him for hours. And let me tell you, he was one of those dogs, just keep petting me, Dad.

Come on, let's go. What, you're stopping? No, no, no, no, no, no, no. And also, as I was walking where we keep his bowls, they're gone, all that. I already miss him big time. and I've been watching video and pictures and what can I say. Anyway, we want to thank you for all the kind words and all the emails we told you on Friday. We received it from many countries.

It looks like we all have something that we experience and that is our pets. I got one email from somebody with the pet parakeets. two parakeets. I've never had a parakeet. I've had dogs. I had a cat a very long time ago. I'm not a big fan of cats.

Nothing against them, but, you know. So anyway, I hope you all had a good weekend. As always, serious talk on everything affects you, and there's some serious things we're going to discuss today. We will do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry. The Morlocks in D.C., the lock. the cheaters, the thieves, the election, the debt, the deficits, the scams and shams and corruption, you name it, we cover it, and all that. And if you do not get this radio show in

your city, we'll post at garyk.com. We'll post on our X feed. If you don't follow us at X, do that. Put our name in and follow us. And if you like to email us, you just have to be nice and respectful because we'll always be nice and respectful back, even if we completely disagree. unless you know unless you like Hamas are terror loving you robbed a bank today you beat up an old lady or did something stupid unless all right so in case you don't know we got a lot of things going on today so we are taping the show it is 2.30 p.m. As I speak we'll close it out a little after three and I want you to listen carefully because we're going to get deep into thine markets in some very important areas. We're going to start with the semiconductors. So the day the Philadelphia Semiconductor index broke back above the 50-day moving average was on September 21st. I believe it was a Monday. And artificial intelligence stock

started getting better. And for about, let's see, 34, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 trading days, pretty darn good. We were thrilled. Knowing that only one or two names were near highs, knowing that, and when we said this even while it was going up, there's so many names that aren't participating

that are way down in their bare markets. And then we had a little, little gap to the downside on October 7th, and then the bad day was Thursday of last week. That was the day we thought they stuck the fork in for now. A little did we know. Friday they gapped it up but finished poorly, and today they gapped it to the downside again. and as I speak, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down a juicy 327 points. Leading AMD is down 17. That's the strongest name, but there's some things that are sore thumbs that have me worried.

First off, we've been talking to about the memory slash storage of Sandus, Seagate, and Worst Western Digital. they're just getting smacked. Sand this down another 100, completely breaking the 50-day moving average. Seagate did that a while ago, and Western Digital just plain weak. And Micron is attached to them. That's rolled over and is sitting right on the 50.

If it breaks there, that will just be another one. And as we go through our list of about 100 semiconductor stocks, they really do look terrible now. Really. Intel completely rolled over. Breaks the 50 day. Terodyne had a beautiful move up, straight up, straight down, even more. Taiwan semi fails a breakout. Arm holdings, just crumbling. Broadcom never got going. Want me to continue? a lot of lesser-no names just absolutely smoked. So we're very worried on the semiconductors, but it's also this artificial intelligence trade.

We've been harping on symbol light as one of the strong names. It's down $118.18 bucks today down almost 11%. coherence down 27 to 285 Sienna down 47 to 403 Fabrinet symbol FN down 36 to 450 I can continue I think I've made my point symbol fix one of the construction guys

that broke above the 50 day smoked and down another 77 today it's a high price name 1600. That's still a big drop. So we're just letting you know, Wednesday and Thursday of last week woke us up. Woke us up. And Vidiot topped and continues lower. And I can go on. Very simply, we'll keep you advised. But wow. We're always hopeful, but not good. Now, let me just tell you what the supposed news is.

Out of China, something faster, quicker, better, smaller, this. Who knows? We've heard this before. Remember, Deep Seek? But we're really farther along, and something else as we've told you is going on. The bonds of some of these companies are getting hit hard. the credit default swaps to ensure have been skyrocketing in price. So we'll keep a very close watch, but we're just letting you know, since Wednesday, UG, UGH for the semiconductor artificial intelligence trade, that for 11 days, trading days,

man it was really nice to see and then you got a little clue and then a bigger clue than a real big clue and now they're really sticking it as always if anything changes we'll let you know but dang

and when I'm able to tell you the strongest name is down 10% today in L-I-T-E when I can start saying down 47, down 40, down 35. It's no fun. So we'll keep it in mind. We'll be watching closely. But this is UG.

UGH. UG.H. UG. Not UG But UG. And of course there is the rest of the market. We have been talking to about the broad market getting a little better. We'll bring that up next. And other things of note. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary

money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and education. needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 8-5-59. That's 888-422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Coltbaum Capital Management.

It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

Real quickly. Tomorrow, before the open. City Group, Domino's Pizza, Goldman Sachs, Johnson and Johnson, J.P. Morgan, United Health in Wells Fargo. So you got four big banks with two of them in the Dow. Johnson and Johnson United Health Healthcare in the Dow. Wednesday, Bank America, Black Rock, Morgan, Stanley, and State Street Bank for those, ASML an important semiconductor. Fassanel.

Okay. Thursday. Bank of New York Mellon, Schwab, PNC Bank, U.S. Bank Corps, and interactive brokers. So a lot more financials. Anything else of note? Taiwan Semiconductor on Thursday, Travelers, Friday in the Dow. That would be insurance. but also Friday, three big regionals, Regents Financial, M&T Bank, Truist, and one, maybe this is big, Citizens Financial Group.

So big financials week this week, big bank week this week, we will be yelping about it as they come out. Yay. Software. So software security stocks have been strong. And full and fair disclosure, I didn't buy. I was with 70% of the market getting hit with at the time the semis and others not doing great. I didn't touch and I could have made some cheese. They're getting hit hard today.

But this is after a real strong Friday. Friday they had a very strong day. They are given a bunch of them back. You know what I mean by these, right? CrowdStrike, Palo Alto networks. snowflake, Twilio. So they're getting hit pretty decently. But these are only pullbacks as of this second.

We'll keep you informed. Meta, up 28 bucks today. Meta's been somewhat of a wild stock for a big name. It went straight up on news of this muse. It's some AI thing. And then it just dropped from 779 down to 730, 13 in a matter of seven days, but it was from very extended conditions, somewhat of a straight-up move. It's up 28 today to 747. They mentioned something about Muse again. And I have not used Muse,

but I hear that a lot of people are using it. Maybe I'll try it. Maybe. I still use legal pads. When I got Alexa as a gift, I put it in my closet and covered it up. Now, what I do use is on Google, if I do a search, it'll also come out and say AI if you want a little bit more. Let's see. Hurricane Season when. So I click Hurricane Season When and it comes up and then I can click AI mode. That's about the only thing I've done.

I have yet to use chat cheap E.T, but my wife lives by it. My wife lives by it. I have hardly used any of this stuff. Hardly. And I do get made fun of. But I use this AI mode on Google. and it's pretty good. But I have to tell you,

I was watching somebody saying, oh, I can get airline tickets and tours. So can I. Oh, but it's better. No, it isn't. No. All right. I guess I'll check it out one day.

Anyway, but software pulling in today. Palo Alto Networks is down 20 Broke out at 400, went to 430, it's back to 398, welcome to my world. But that takes me to something else. Oil prices.

So let me start out by saying the president cuts some deal with Russia going against his own law of two weeks before that anybody who buys energy from Russia will be tariffed 100%. So is the president going to tariff himself 100%.

Anyway, we added up how much they're supposedly getting from Russia? It's like one day's worth of diesel. So it's meaningless, even though as usual, the president sounded like the greatest ever. I'm going to be generous today and just say, He embellished. And how do we know he embellished? Brent, crude, is up another $2 today. As I speak, $106.66.

And in case you don't know, Brent crude is what's tied most to gas prices. Most to gas prices. 106.60. for December delivery. That is not good news. Not good news. For airlines, for cruise lines, Uber drivers, lift drivers,

truckers, rails, anything that uses gas. That includes the thousands of products that are made with petroleum. Thousands. Products. made with petroleum. And the longer it stays up, the worse.

The worse. Oh my good. You ready? Lipstick, nail polish, eye makeup, hair coloring, perfumes, petroleum jelly, hand lotions, cold cream, shaving cream, shampoo, deodorant, soap dishes, toothpaste, detergents. Aspirin? Really?

contain refined petrochemicals. Artificial heart valves, pacemakers, stethoscope, syringes, IV bags, eyeglass frames, soft contact lenses, safety goggles. Smartphones, laptops, computer monitors, televisions, cameras, electrical tape, vinyl flooring, synthetic shag rugs, curtain. You get my point? The longer these prices stay up, you know what's going to happen to all these products? higher up next we'll talk a little bit more

on that and bonds which were closed today for Columbus Day this is the one only Investors Edge I'm listening to America is talking Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that

The crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Colbomb Comes highly recommended You're gonna feel better if you talk to him And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. So this is just my opinion. I think it's sickening that our president, number one,

is doing a deal with Russia on energy. When 10 days ago, he said he's tariffing anybody who buys energy from Russia, made it like the biggest thing ever and it's small potatoes. but it puts money in Russia's hands and the president had the nerve. All right, so let's be careful here. First, he says that they should have a new person running Ukraine because a deal could have been made a bunch of times.

No, a deal could not be made a bunch of times because Putin wants to take over Ukraine or a bunch of territory of Ukraine and no country would do that. That's number one. Number two, the president intimated that Ukraine started the war, which calls it the question, who the hell his side is he on? Freedom or a prick, like Putin.

And by the way, I'm not alone. Republicans are hammering the president on this. It's the weirdest thing. I'm friends with Putin and, gee, and the prick running North Korea, but Canada sucks, which calls into question for me, who is this guy? Making billions off the presidency for him and his family,

going after his enemies daily, while pardoning a bunch of white-collar criminals that don't have to pay restitution but gave millions to his super PAC or to whatever, accepts a plane from, What was that cutter? And I could go on and on. He got a guy arrested for supposedly damaging that reservoir in D.C.

That was a lie. Just to cover up that it was him and whoever he hired. And now oil prices, 106.5. They just dropped 8 cents. Yay. Anyway, it's all very unnerving because just remember, we were the ones that praised the hell out of the guy. A plus, plus, plus, plus on the border.

Loved it. A plus, plus, plus on giving the big gigantic middle finger to the colleges who would not protect Jewish students. Loved it. Crime. Loved it. And then we find out it was selective crime. Deportations loved it. Deportations loved it.

deport the criminals. Then we find out that deporting 70-year-old men that have been here 35 years or 30 years and have families and have paid taxes and have sons and daughters and grandsons. And you're just picking them up off the street and sending them to places they'd never been to. That lost the Hispanic vote. Have you seen the polls on that? And the independent votes destroyed. Gone. which is probably going to last into 28, unfortunately. So anyway, he does business with Russia. While he's telling everybody else they can't, or they're going to be tariffed 100%.

And then he says that the guy running Ukraine, defending the country, should be out of there. They need somebody else because he's not cutting a deal for them to take over Ukraine, which is insane. Insane. insane and what does it have to do with it

oil prices 106 and change what does it have to do with how your oil prices what does it have to do with wait till you see some of these products I mentioned they have to go up in price for the new stuff being made

they're not these companies are not going to eat every dime of these things are you kidding no way in hell so we'll stay on top of it, but really the theme today, semiconductors and artificial intelligence stocks are getting racked.

This is the third day in a row. A lot of breakdowns, leading stocks, topping out for now. Remember, we have earning season. We mention all the ones this week. It's not a big week as far as numbers, but a big week for names. And next week, I believe we'll go into the mags and the next two weeks, the mags and all that crap. We'll keep you informed on everything that gaps up, everything that gaps down, the guidance, the whole works.

And don't email me on the president. I'm telling you all facts, by the way. We're not even giving you opinions. We're giving you facts. And of course, all the people that love him that two weeks ago said, great move, president. Great move, president for sanctioning Russia and threatening others to. to buy energy from them. You know what they're saying now, the same people?

Great move buying that oil from Russia. It's amazing to watch. And by the way, the same thing goes for the other side. Duh. And as you know, we have no love for any of them anymore. I wish I was 10 to 15 years younger. I wish I was 10 to 15 years younger. In other news, oh, a marijuana link to rampant violence.

One of the greatest scams ever was marijuana. Yeah. Cigarettes bad, marijuana good. Just so you know, New York City is one big giant bong hit. Just want to let you know. Walk on any street, weed. And now they're finding out with the higher rate of cannabis is a lot of things going on. A lot of things.

things going on. Just let you know. And of course, we gave you a great opinion on marijuana stocks a long time ago that they're all going to crash. Oh, and they all crashed. That was as easy as the plant meat, beyond meat. There was no way beyond meat was going to grow like crazy. heck no sometimes you just one plus one equals two just like Kmart

I used to come on this show and say yeah I just want to let you know I went to Kmart again it's dirty it's dingy nobody was helping and there wasn't enough employees and the shelves were a lot of shelves were empty and then I walked into Target it was bright and cheery everything was full

The people walking around helping, went to Walmart. You get the point. Every now and then. And that's why we visit these places quite often, just to see. My favorite one I'm trying to figure out right now is Home Depot and Lowe's, because their stocks are just absolutely suffering. And yeah, they're much bigger now, but I guess that housing business right now is tough. And in case you don't know, some of the worst acting stocks in the market,

are the housing stocks. And again, seven and a half mortgage now. Well, we were about 6'1 before the war. That's a lot of cake. Just letting you know. What else today? Broadmark a little bit better. Insurance stocks are up.

Staples are up. Financial's a decent amount of green, but not much, and it doesn't matter. They're all reporting soon. We'll get a feel. Retail mixed. Healthcare, not a bad day. Oil's good.

Especially these refiners. But just, you know, nothing special. Advanced declines 2022 on the New York, 1626 on the NASDAQ. And again, we're right at 3 o'clock. Dow's up 165, but the NASDAQ's down 138. NASDAQ 100's down 256 because of the semiconductor index down 346, as I speak. Up next.

My travels of the weekend. This is the one only Investor's Edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge.

With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. So, uh, I fly back from New York City when I go up just about every other. other week. Saturdays. Don't go back on Sundays because if I leave Sunday, I'm leaving Sunday morning so I just not go back Saturday late. And when I mean late, anywhere between 5 and 8 p.m. And of course, it's a big corridor, New York down to Florida. Just letting you know, I could be wrong. And maybe it's a small sampling. Business is soft. And, And you know, I didn't even talk to the airlines.

Do you know what I actually do? I walk into the stores and the restaurants. And I ask them and ask them and then ask them and ask them. It's soft. Business is soft for the airlines. My flights right now, not full. And maybe Saturday's not as busy as other days, but still, it's a much different right now versus what it's been. The certain lounge I go into was empty.

It's always packed. I mean empty. To the point where the lounge I go to has two separate stations. It's a big lounge in the airport. it, they don't even put out the food anymore on that second area because of how many people. Maybe it's a small sampling. Just want to let you know. I've been wondering, will there be a point where oil prices, yields?

We'll see. I can be wrong. You know what I am right about? what happened what happened to restaurants do you know I was at a restaurant and they

charged to use a credit card you know when you order something and if you pay credit card because there's like a two or three percent you pay that extra like when I pay for rent or something you know I'll pay the extra

I don't mind a little bit but at restaurants, they're tacking on using a credit card, even for higher priced bills that they know you're not given cash. I'd never seen that before. I was told by my son, no, I've seen it before, but I hadn't. I'm also seeing all kinds now of other service charges. You know, in Italy, you go in any places. There's a cover charge.

small cover charge just to show up. I was in one of these Tuscan towns at night getting some pizza with my, and they, it was a little two euro cover charge to walk in. I'm seeing things like that now here, not to mention that they want tips everywhere now. You all seeing the same thing? paying restaurants for credit cards when you've never done that in the past it's been part of it are they even worried that it'll affect tips i'm the biggest tipper on earth at least my earth i was pissed off not at the the help and i didn't say anything but what is this the shape of

things to come everything now everything pick up a bagel they ask you for a tip dunkin donuts tip Starbucks tip anywhere tip the tips have tips and then they they put the tip in for the tax am I missing something I bet you'll experience the same thing anyway just wanted to let you know right now Dow up 180 and again you're a little better, broader market. I will tell you, I think I mentioned early last week or late last week, MasterCard and Visa are acting well, the two greatest bookies on Earth. Visa's a new all-time high. MasterCard is not there yet. But other financials not even close. Visa's an all-time high. Dang. Again, the greatest bookies on Earth. Capital One is not even close.

And again, little better today. We don't have a bad. advanced decline but then semiconductors artificial intelligence scaring the willies and we'll let you know if it changes gets better and of course during earning season what happens but also when i've been trained leading stocks sand disk breaking down sea gate breaking down western digital breaking down not so sure i want to see that and again to repeat Pete, oil, 106.51 as I speak. And I'm going to email my buddy who's a genius on the oil and ask him what he thinks. But I paid $4.89 for middle gas.

That's a lot. I think $4.49 for the regular. That's a lot. I do believe it was three bucks before the war. That's a lot. and Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob are feeling it. And that's why you're seeing the poll numbers for a certain party. Works then Root Canal and Jock Itch.

Have a great evening. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children, hug your pet. Have a great night, everybody. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garykay.com.

That's GaryKay.com.