Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - OIL PRICE PLUNGE
Episode Date: October 4, 2023https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbom, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
It is October 4, 2023.
Hope you're having a good day.
We have a bunch of things to talk about today.
we're going to we walked you through a couple of things in the last few days of what if this happens
what if that happens and something happened today that is of import and hopefully it's on the good side
we'd like to get some good news we'd like to get some good action after what the nausea we have been
seeing for the last i don't know how many weeks months whatever all we can tell you is the average
stock has been an absolute horror show in the market. I mean, just so many areas, so many names
have been crumbling on the back of a huge increase in interest rates and oil prices.
And that takes us right to the point. But first, if you do not get this, by the way, this is
Investor's Ed. Serious talk on you and everything that affects you. You know that, right?
And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post on
our Twitter feed, which is now the X feed. And if you want to follow us on X, just go to X and put our
name in. And if you want to email me, all you got to do is be nice. Do you know I have one guy
emailing me all the time that is a total anti-Semite, completely admits it, and then tells me he's
not an anti-Semite. He emails me telling me, the Jews control everything, the Jews this, the Jews,
that but I'm not anti-Semite. I love people. Ain't they great? Okay, now that we got rid of the
greetings and the niceties, we've had two simple pet peeves, and we have warned you about them,
and we have guided you through the markets now for a very long time where little by,
what's the line I use? Little by little, piece by piece, inch by inch, stock by stock, sector by sector,
they've been crumbling.
And the only good thing about the market,
well, I don't know if it's a good thing about the market was
how far things have come down.
But in the last week, and this is of import,
because we sent out a little webcast today to our peeps
on a lesson on the oils.
And in the last few days we've been saying to
that the oil stocks have become mixed.
What we mean by that is
there's been a bunch of oil stocks breaking down
even though oil prices have stayed up or keep going up.
And then oil prices started coming down, and yesterday, they broke what we call support level slash moving averages.
In commodities, the stocks often lead, and we always tell you that on gold and silver, lead the commodity.
Today they crushed oil prices.
and by the way, they crushed oil prices, even with the Saudis, again saying they are not raising production to get prices down.
Well, here's the good news. What's our canned line? Nothing bad happens when oil prices go down and when yields go down. But we've had nothing but the opposite. Well, oil prices today drop $4.50. That's a huge drop for $1.10.
day huge and that was on the move of what the stocks were already doing now we didn't know that the oil
prices would drop four and a half bucks today but we knew that oil stocks were getting in trouble
and oil prices were topping a little bit but they plunged what is that what else does that do
well it takes a little pressure off the bond market why because the bond market's been moving up
on commodity prices, the most important commodity energy going higher as well as the debt and the
deficits, but we're going to put that aside for this second. So today, oil prices plunge, yields
come down a bit, markets go up. What did we say to you? Oil prices are stretched and extended
to the upside. Yields stretched and extended to the upside. Markets stretched and extended to the
downside. That turned today. Listen carefully. How long?
I don't know. How much? I don't know. All I do know is I think some sort of a low may be put in, maybe this second. And when I say that, I'm going to give you the final numbers. The advanced declines were still not good. Leadership, really isn't any. New yearly highs. I think.
I think I have four stocks, but definitively a bounce in a bunch of areas that have just been
absolutely trashed. And we're always mindful of what we call the down 10 up two. What does that mean?
When a stock drops 10 bucks and then goes up two, that's not bullish. When a stock goes up
six bucks and down 12 not bullish up two down 10 bad up 10 down too down too good best way to
explain it so today better day overdue and as we tell you we have no bias we have zero bias in the
markets. We adhere to what the markets give us and tell us based on our reading of them. And we'd
have nothing but downtrends and downtrends. And remember, all we've been telling you for weeks,
the only leadership was oils, which became mixed, uranium and coal. All three coming in, but oils
really blasted today. Most oil stocks broke support. Anything that didn't break support today,
anything that had not broken support before today broke today
and I think I found two names still trading above the 50-day move and average
so we'll go through the numbers with again it's just the day we don't want to get too
bullish we do want to say if oil prices stay down right now this second and yields
stay down good.
If they go back up, bad.
Direct correlation going on.
Simple as that.
Now also we've been talking about the Big Seven.
How what a huge, huge help they are to the big indices.
The best way to explain it is the Russell 2000.
I didn't even realize this till I looked.
going into today was down 30% from the highs in 2021.
Going into today.
Oh, it's only 2,000 stocks, don't worry.
There are 1,000 stocks at new yearly lows yesterday,
even though the S&P 500 and all the other indices are still not near the lows.
So it should be obvious that the broad market sucks.
the indices had a good day, but I want to just mention again,
you had a better day on the NASDAQ NASDAQ-100 with the advanced declines,
got positive at the close, but nowhere near where they should be.
So they are again putting money into a select few.
I'm going to mention one in specific in a little bit,
because it has me scratching my head a little bit.
and we'll go from there.
But most importantly, $4.50
plunge in oil prices today,
that is awesome.
Awesome.
Which means if it can just stay right here,
we're going to get some relief at the pump in the next,
I don't know.
You know they bring them down slower than they raise them up, right?
Even though they say they don't.
Yeah, sure, right. So we'll get into the full market wrap. The whole works, but I want to dress also. I received a hundred emails from people. Gary, comment on what the Republicans and everything that happened yesterday, as you know, they kicked out the speaker. Well, first let me comment on how stupid they are. How stupid can they be that they put in a rule that one person can get them to go to a vote to vacate?
Kate the Speaker of the House.
Do you believe
how moronic they are that one
person can do that?
And they did. And the
expectation
that the Marxist party was going to
save him? Do you know
that we're being told that
Pelosi told McCarthy,
don't worry, I got you back?
She don't have nobody's
back but her own wallet.
So he's
out. And everybody
He's hymn and honing about the word chaos.
Oh, it's chaotic now.
Oh, it's this and that.
Let me tell you what chaos is.
33 trillion of debt.
Skyrocketing on a daily basis.
That's chaos.
There's your chaos.
Up next.
We'll put a bow tie on that nausea.
I'm Gary.
This is the one only investor's edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum.
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Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
Now, I must tell you that this guy Gates, who's from Pensacola,
he actually did a speech yesterday about the $33 trillion of debt.
the two trillion deficits and was hammering away.
Now, I don't know whether he's full of crap and just using that to get his way.
All I know is I just hope more and more start talking about and do something because I was
looking at Biden today as he was talking about it and he had this little smirk on his face
and I'm thinking to myself this miscreant has taken our deficits and debt and has just
balloon them as spending
$2 trillion more than he's supposed to
should be impeached just for that
and he had this little smirk on his face I wanted
to vomit.
But I digress. You know I
can't stand the guy, but
you know the other guy I can't
stand. So I must tell
you I'm not going to name who. There is
a house member that I watched
on TV from Florida.
Not going to name him.
Once Donald Trump
as the Speaker of the House.
And just so you know, you can have a Speaker of the House
that's not in politics.
It could be me.
I want you to think about this.
The guy has 91 counts.
It has now been found out that Donald Trump was saying
when he was president
that he didn't want to be standing next to
an injured soldier
or a soldier without arms and legs
because it looks bad.
I got two words for Donald Trump
and an ain't happy birthday.
This guy should never be running the country again.
For you people that love the guy, God bless you.
There's others in the Republican Party that we should have.
Because that guy ain't working for you.
And the things he said about John McCain, oh, he's not a hero because he was caught,
Donald Trump wouldn't last one minute in a hellhole without whining and complaining and crying tears and crapping in his pants.
I shouldn't be president again.
And guess what? I think God's
favor he is.
But a congressman comes out and says
let's make him speaker of the house
the day after it's found out yesterday
that this guy's saying
that he doesn't want to be
standing next to an injured war
veteran? Up yours, pal.
God, I don't know.
You people that love him, you got a lot of
tolerance. God bless you. And
again, I respect
everyone, you know, even the ones that love the Marxist party.
I'm not going to get in front of you.
I think everybody has the right to think the way they do and what they want.
As long as you live within the rule law, God bless you.
Hope you respect what I think too.
I got news for you.
Nothing going to change.
We have told you to go look at a chart.
Just Google it of our debt and deficits.
All hell's going to break eventually.
And as we've stated to you, under no uncertain terms,
We do not know if it's tomorrow or 10 years from now.
Maybe we can go to 60 trillion.
But they're just crushing us.
They're just crushing us.
And I just pray that we get some sanity there because, again, I know it's coming down the pike.
So do you.
It's not hard to figure out.
I saw a study that thinks in 10 years will be 2 trillion going to interest every year.
2 trillion to interest.
And yet these people stand there.
up on TV, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
So nothing's going to change. It doesn't matter
who's the next speaker of the House.
It doesn't matter if it's Trump or Biden or any, you know,
until we get somebody in there with some grapefruits
and really shoots them down.
And they had the chance.
They had a chance.
You know, even though they had a small majority in the House,
that small majority could have told Biden, go screw.
you ain't running $2 trillion debt in any year.
Come back to us with much lower spending and we'll talk.
That's all.
But they don't have the grapefruits.
They're wimps.
We've got to get some tough people in there.
And get back to government for the people,
buy the people of the people and all that other stuff we used to hear.
That really did matter.
Because I got news for you.
They ain't working for the people.
They're working for the votes.
You know what the latest is?
And I don't know how they got to get.
Joe Biden just forgave another $9 billion student loans.
Imagine students took out loans and are getting forgiven.
Really?
So a government program that gives out money without ever means testing
whether people can pay it back based on what college they go to,
how much it's going to cost, and what kind of jobs are going to have later,
are now forgiving it.
And you know what they're forgiving it with?
The blob.
You know, $9 billion, they just forgave.
Just so you know, $5 billion is being added to our debt every day.
So it's just a freaking footnote.
They just don't give a crap anymore.
They're laughing at us.
They're shooting a middle finger at us.
They're shooting two middle fingers at us.
And they're laughing.
And unfortunately, the R's love the R's, the D's love the R's,
the D's love the D's.
And that's the end of that.
So anyway, just letting you know
what happened, whatever, it doesn't
matter. I'd like to say it does.
I don't know who the next
one. My guess is Steve Scalese,
but he has multiple myeloma.
God bless him. I hope he gets over that.
My uncle died of it many years ago.
It's a blood disease.
But that's my guess. That's
who's going to be it. But
nothing's going to change. And that's all.
and God, Trump, I just pray he wakes up one day and say, screw this.
I'm going back to my golf courses.
He should not be running this country.
Oh, and by the way, this congressman said Trump will cut spending.
Yeah, six trillion later.
Without COVID, that was Trump.
Three words.
I'm not going to say it.
All right.
So that covers that.
Got a bunch of emails on it.
Again, I just want to repeat, nothing's going to change.
They're not working for us.
But I will say this.
I think I mentioned this guy before.
This guy, Chip Roy, he's sane.
He's one of the sane people over there.
He makes sense.
He sounds like me.
We need a lot more of him.
Chip Roy, I'm putting that in.
He is from Texas's 21st Congressional District.
I like the guy.
I like what he says.
He sounds sane.
But one person cannot get the job done.
One person cannot get the job done.
You're going to need 218 people in the house that want to do something about the size and the blob of government.
218.
And really mean it.
All right.
Today's market, Dow Up 127 finished decently.
Up. Music. Up next, the numbers.
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to to tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com
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VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One
travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every
purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over
1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms
apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to
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He's got to be pleased with that
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All right
So
On thine market today
Dow up 127
I'm looking at the
Today
It hit
132 at noonish went all the way down to be down like 80 finished up 127 in the down today
Microsoft up 5 it's trading like a penny stock and just a few things up ones and twos weak with
what do we say about the oil chevron down almost four caterpillar down almost four commodities at a rough
day caterpillar's kind of commodity base.
Boeing down two.
Somebody's buying Airbus jets instead of Boeing.
Amgen down four.
But otherwise, most everything was up.
Russell 2000 was flat.
Again, the Russell 2000 was flat.
S&P up 34, NASDAQ, here's the thing.
176.
NASDAQ 100, 210.
But advanced declines were
2341 up.
1773 down.
That's hardly up.
Why? Tesla
up 14. Invity up
4.5. Microsoft up 5.
Facebook up 4. Google
up 2.5. Amazon up 2.
Apple got downgraded.
It was still up 1. Adobe up 8.
That's why.
And that's what we've got to be
watching carefully. Because
as we have told you, they better keep
those bad boys up because they're 23%
of the S&P.
By the way, Adobe was up 11.
23% of the S&P and 40-some-odd percent of the NASDAQ 100.
I think it's like 44%.
Was in the 50s, but the NASDAQ 100 decide to be a little bit on the smart side.
Weakness.
They crushed the oils today.
They blasted the coal stocks.
They've been going hand in hand.
Strength.
Well, you had a little bounce in housing.
Little bouncing consumers.
staples, a very little bounce in the financials, and I got to tell you, even today, Bank of New York
down, Bank America flat, Comerica down, City Group down, U.S. Bank Corps down, Trueus, down,
Northern Trust down, State Street, down, Capital One, down. Huh, they bounce the semiconductors,
of course, they've got to bounce the semiconductors on a day like today. They bounced the economically
sensitive, the insurance, they bounce the restaurants.
They bounce some things.
Change of trend, didn't see much.
The only, well, I'm not going to say only.
Tesla, just going to mention, not telling you what to do, Tesla bounced back above the 50-day moving average
and actually has this what we call coming up the right side look to it, though.
we'll see
Facebook
still don't know why they changed name to meta
continues to be very tight-knit's trading
and what do we mean by that
it's just not trading wide and loosen up and down a lot
if it can break above let me give you a couple of numbers
313
that'd be really good
and could indicate something
Google
holding the 50-day moving average
but after that
Netflix looks like crap
Adobe
hanging in there
nothing great
Nvidia
we'll call a little bit better
need some more ump
I'll give you a number on Nvidia
would need to break above
I'll call it
452
which by the way has to be
close to the 50 day moving average
Microsoft
Yeah, not much to say there.
So that's the story of some of the biggies.
But overall, better day, and again, let me be repetitious.
That's a word, right?
Oil prices plunging is mooy importante.
Yields coming down, mooy importante.
And the more oil prices come down, maybe you get a little better of the bond market.
And by the way, the 10-year yield is just so stretched upside.
I would not be surprised if it came down.
Let's see, close it 4-735.
I think it can come down to 4546.
We'll see what the market does.
Now, now that I suggested some positiveness,
let me give you the other side.
if the plungin oil is indicative of trouble on the horizon for the economy
and all this inverted yield curve stuff amongst the other things we mention about savings rates
and credit card usage and the like if that is indicative of a market saying uh-oh on the economy
well then you know what takes over profits margins valuations and markets can go down because of that
but right now in easing of the commodity today and may I suggest that looks like a pretty darn good
top on oil for now real good top for now nothing but good news on that
fundamentally for you at the gas pump and on a lot of things you purchase.
What ain't happening?
Gold, I got to tell you, no matter what happens, gold can't find the friend.
Same with silver.
China.
Nah.
The solars.
Nah.
The underbelly technology.
Nah.
What the hell is the underbelly technology, Gary?
Well, it's just that the big seven, which by the way are not strong,
but they have held up much better than a bunch of technology stocks that are down 30, 40,
50, 50, 60, 70, 80 percent.
And there is still plenty down 50, 60, 70, and 80 percent from the highs in 21.
A lot of people forget that.
Anything else I feel positive about?
I saw some bulls, you know, some charlatans, forget they were bullish two weeks ago and turned bearish all the sun.
That's good news.
We don't mind that.
That could be something.
We're open to any and all outcomes.
Now, here's what you need to do every day right now.
If the market's going to get better, there's one very important thing that has to happen and will happen.
the new yearly high list will expand.
And you know what the job is?
You look at the new yearly high list daily.
Because potentially, if we can get a decent up move,
even a decent counter-tren rally,
the new yearly high list shows you
where the big strength is in the market.
And unfortunately, as I stated,
I got one, two, three, four names.
Seriously, I got four names out of the bazillion states.
stocks on the New York and the NASDAQ at a new yearly high. New yearly lows today were still
over 700, down from 1,000, but still over 700. So the insides of the market is still suspect,
but definitely a better day today. And a good close. You know what we say about the closes.
We have no clue what happens tomorrow. I think we say that every day now, and I think it's a good
move to say that every day. It gets you to understand the short term anything's possible.
But we're gratified that oil price is plunged because, man, oh man, them bad boys have been
persistent to the upside. And them dogs don't hunt. I can promise you that. What else going on
in the news? Well, by the way, I got a bunch of emails thanking me for never mentioning
I'm not going to mention her.
Well, she's the most famous singer on earth now that does all the concerts,
and she's dating a football player.
Because everybody else has been mentioning it.
In the news, the feds,
wait to you hear what they spent $3.3 billion on.
Much more. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
It's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
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and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John, comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X.
card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit
for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000
airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge
access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,
and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.
The good news is Sprinker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen,
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big
thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might
someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're
going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to
What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.
Action! In the Gester's Edge, with Gary Kulp-Bah.
In the news of federal officials have been blasted, but nothing's going to happen.
They spent $3.3 billion on office furniture during COVID while nobody was working from offices,
including $250,000 on solar-powered picnic tables for the CDC,
and $120,000 on luxurious leather recliners for just one U.S. Embassy.
what does this come under?
They don't give a crap about you.
It's so bad that $3 billion is just a freaking footnote.
It is 60% of one day's debt.
That's how bad it is now.
That's how sick it is.
Now imagine if somebody made the decision,
we're not going to spend this $3 billion.
We don't need new furnishes. Let's just stick with the old furniture.
But let's do this.
$3 billion.
What can we do?
Well, let's contact the program directors and speak to them about children that are hungry across the United States.
How much food can be bought with $3 billion for hungry children or children.
the United States and for how long.
Nope.
Why do that?
Just remember when you see a politician standing up there in front of the camera like Marxist Joe Biden says,
we don't have enough money, we need to spend more, they're full of it.
They're lying sacks a monkey crap.
Only $3 billion.
No big deal.
A footnote.
Yay.
In the news.
Have you seen this sphere?
in Las Vegas.
So they got this new place that
they just, you two just
had the concert there. It is the most
amazing looking thing I ever seen. I got to
go there. Go look at this
sphere and they are able
by the way, it costs $2.3 billion
and
they get
$450,000 for just one day advertising
because just so you know the
you put an advertisement, it's
on the whole thing.
It's amazing. Go look at the
video of the inside and outside of the sphere in Las Vegas.
And by the way, I think it's owned by the Madison Square Garden, James Dolan, who I hate.
Look what he did to my necks.
In the news, hey, the New York City mayor who said, come one, come all, is now going to visit Latin America to tell migrants they won't get five-star hotels in the Big Apple.
Please don't come here.
Be careful what you wish for.
Isn't it amazing how these sanctuary city doofuses are now pissed off that they've given sanctuary?
Don't you love hypocrisy?
In the news, here's a beauty.
Marxist, Alexandria Casio-Cortez is calling for higher taxes on New York's top 5%.
So now, 250.000.
$250,000.
If you make $250,000 or more raise taxes,
Marxists just love your money.
They just love your money.
It's not bad enough that so many New Yorkers have moved out,
gotten the hell out of there,
and moved away from their district because of,
what do you pay, 13% New York?
And then their city tax also?
So they want to raise the 127,
threshold to two you got to keep paying to two fifth something to that effect they want to target the
top five percent instead of the top one percent there you go marxists follow the money yay by the way
she is the same women that did a photo op when trump was president at the border crying over the children
that were in cages and now there are thousands more children
that are basically in cages, and she don't go to the border anymore.
Ladies and gentlemen, these people suck.
Again, they do not work for you.
They work for themselves, and they nauseate the living heck out of me.
And that's the news.
By the way, I'm mistakenly, the Saudis are going to continue to cut one million barrels per month per day until December.
that's what's going on and oil prices still dropped and that is good news and let's hope you know
how I feel about oil and yields it is going to be so big for the market going forward I mean big time
so let me repeat oil plunge today yields came down better market still worried that they're
buying up the big seven with advanced declines not even close but we'll take it we'll take any
update right now because it's been so bad.
Stocks are so deep in their corrections
that you can get bounces at any time
randomly, but it does not change the major
trend. We will let
you know when trends change.
You know why? You can't hide
them. And you can assume
that we have a decent eye. We
haven't seen, we already scanned 1,500
stocks. There are some names
that are stronger than others. There's actually
some strength. I mentioned four new yearly
highs. I saw no real trends changing today except oil topping. That is a definitive change for right now.
We don't know how long it lasts. We don't know how far it goes. Let's hope it continues.
And again, that mixed bag of oil stocks topping out in the last few days, we're telegraphing it.
Now the other part is bond yields. You're finished at 4735 on.
the 10 year. The lower the better, the higher the worse. Simple as that. The housing market
stalled. Nobody wants to sell because they don't want to trade a 3% for an 8% mortgage.
As I look at how much business is going on in central Florida, stalled as well as others.
Prices have been coming down, but that's selective. You'll need inventory.
to really come around for that to happen.
Hasn't happen yet.
That all said, I'll be on with Varnie and Company tomorrow at 10 a.m. hour.
Check it out. Fox Business Network tomorrow.
Until then, you have a great evening drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do.
Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better. You will feel better.
And if your father's 92 years old, big hugs.
Have a great one, everybody.
Thanks for joining.
Peace out, all.
Bye-bye.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum
on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garyk
dot com. That's GaryKK.com.
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