Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Oil Prices

Episode Date: August 24, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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eBay, things people love. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum, straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you were listening. August 23rd, it's Tuesday.

I think the Mets lost to the Yankees last night in the game one of the subway series and that's not good news. Anyway, we're here to talk ladies and gentlemen, we hit you right between the eyes. We deal in reality. We curry no favor.

We don't see left or we don't see right. We see you. And we're just going to start the show with just a bunch of bad news. Not necessarily on the market, which was down today. But as you know, we have a keen eye and we've got big eyes. We try not to miss anything.

And we try to take everything in with no bias. And we know how big of bias there is out there. So we're going to start out with number one. Hope you don't mind. President Biden has been telling us how great he's been with the debt and deficits. and we've been laughing it off. You see, when you spend all kinds of money on COVID, and then you stop spending all that money on COVID,

you're going to lower the deficit and debt and spending. So we knew it was con artistry. Not unlike any other politician, he just happens to be the president. I am not pleased to report to you that unfortunately, The White House has to report to us, we're going to have a $1.3 trillion deficit in the year $2,023 fiscal. Interesting, huh?

Your president lied to you. And to be clear, that means they are spending $1.3 trillion more than the ton of money we're sending to them. And they've made it norm. They've made it mainstream. And the media says not a freaking thing. my friend Neil Cavuto talk about it

everybody else the Republicans can't talk about it because under Trump massive deficits so that's number one the con game continues and Gary what how does that affect me

no really how does that affect me well number one your government's lying to you that doesn't affect you number two they're doing something they're not supposed to do.

Number three, they're doing it at numbers unimaginable. Number four, they used to fight all over this. They used to fight about it. Number five, where the hell's the money going to? Is it being used efficiently and effectively? Hell no. Next. President Biden tomorrow is going to announce that if you are a student,

you make less than $125,000 a year, they are going to forgive $10,000 of your student loan. I don't know if that's yearly going forward. Well, it depends on who's running the show. What's my problem with all this? Isn't it great that people get forgiven $10,000 of student loans? Isn't that good news for that student? Here's the problem.

They tell you it's free money. They tell you. They're doing such a wonderful thing for you. A new analysis shows that the forgiveness plan could cost up to nearly $1 trillion over 10 years. Don't worry, it's not going to affect you. Everything's going to be fine. Next. Good news if you're a buyer, bad news if you're a seller.

Housing prices are really starting to come down now. Now listen carefully. I hear all the statistics coming out of all these places, and I take them into consideration, but I'm a hard copy guy. I'm going online and going through many areas. And I just went through just a couple of areas in central Florida today. 50,000, 100,000, 25,000, 75,000, 100,000, 50,000, 200,000 price drops, which means there's going to be more price drops. And if they don't sell on the price drops, there's going to be more price drops from the price drops.

So just letting you know if you're a seller, you're screwed right now. if you're a buyer you're happy as all heck if you're patient of course and just because I think I've got a very good feel for it in many areas we're not even near equilibrium

next you know there's Europe you know there's China you know there's things called global I'm just letting you know the United Kingdom new export orders fell in the Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index to 41 in August, down from 46. Germany is at 41, down from 43.

I can't begin to tell you how bad those numbers are. 50 is equilibrium. 51 is expansion. In case you don't know, Germany is important. The UK is important. I worry globally. China, numbers are terrible. So just letting you know,

there's something global going on. I don't know if you've read about the energy crisis over there and natural gas and things like that. And Russia's shutting down there, natural gas thing for three days, forcing prices up. I'm just letting you know these are things that are going on. Bigger debt, bigger deficits, housing prices coming down, which is not good news, by the way. It's called a wealth effect in reverse. And Europe, which I'm watching closely. and I have some really good contacts in Europe business-wise.

They're less than thrilled. So I know, I know, I know, I know. We're starting out very morbid, but we deal in reality here. What does that mean for markets? Well, here is the worry. Just so you know, I'm going to say the next part emphatically. See all these numbers? Normally all these morons at the central banks.

would be lowering rates big time and printing the hell out of their printing presses. But they can't because they've created all that massive inflation that they got to work on first. And the only way to do that they think is to do the opposite of what they've done. In other words, boxed in like mixed nuts, let me repeat, under all normal circumstances right now, Jay Powell would be lowering rates down to zero and printing the crap out of the printing presses. He can't.

And the same goes for Europe. By the way, the European Central Bank is still at zero percent, those nut cases. So just reporting to you the morbid news. But we deal in reality here. And unfortunately, the people that caused it are still running the joint. And you've got a Marxist in the White House. that lies a lot after coming off that last guy who lied a lot up next today's market wrap movers of the day news of the day lots going on today i thank you for being here i'm gary this is

the one only investor's edge hi i'm gary call bomb hosted a nationally syndicated radio show investors edge we're not just handsome radio people we manage investors money for a living specializing in fee-based discretionary money management No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-422-559. That's 888-4-22-55-9. That's 888-4-2-4-2-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Colbaum Capital Management. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong.

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be. Firm. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Remember we told you there was one more of those Hong Kong-based companies that came

public and went insane to the upside? Simple GCT, $12.5.5 dollar deal went to 62 within a day. Yesterday closed at 48. Am I right in saying this? closed at 42. It was down 16 today to 26 bucks on its way back. Just letting you know. I want to mention also

Bed Bath and Beyond is $8.78. We told you when we had closing days in the mid-20s that it was gone back to four. But we also said we don't know if it's going to 100 first, but it'll go back to $4.08. It's $8.78. cents and all of a sudden nobody's yelling and screaming about

it in the chat rooms and all that. GameStop just went from 48 to 33. AMC I was asked today about they did some other stock, a preferred, I can't figure it out, but stocks going lower

and we hope you listened. One of our worries has been the ridiculous froth and speculation in the market, and look how quickly they already unwound it, causing major, major losses in the market. Let it not happen to you. Bed Bath and Beyond was 30 bucks a few days ago. It's $8.78, and now the talk is all over Wall Street that they will not be able to cover their debt.

And there's also rumors they have talked to bankruptcy attorneys. I'm just reporting to you what's out there. You can see for yourself. I have no clue whether they're going to file bankruptcy or not. All I can tell you is they'll losing a crap load of money, and maniacs drove that thing up to $30 and screwed... If I was running regulators right now, if I was running it,

anyone with one of those voices on the web would be getting a phone call from me and asking them to come visit us. because I want to see if they're front running, what they're doing. We've got to get rid of all that. There's so much money being lost. It's not even funny. What about on the way going up?

Nobody's catching that on the way up. It happens too quickly. So again, from me to you, your pal, your buddy, your friend, be smart. It just went from $30 to $8.78 in, what, four days? and people were crapping in their pants about getting in. It's the next game stop. It's going to 400 bucks. I like to find those people.

There are opponents. Next. Twitter. So here's the story. A security person at Twitter came out and said, Elon Musk is right about everything. Twitter people are full of crap. The amount of followers or people on Twitter

and as BS, there's a bunch of bots. And we knew that would affect the stock. It was down $3.15 today to $39.86. Volume was almost double. And we keep getting asked, what would we do? We're just not playing it. That's all. We're just not going to play it.

If a deal does not happen, I think the stock is 30. Maybe. If they keep losing money. money, 15. So be careful. I don't know what happens, but I gather this gives ammo to Elon Musk. Twitter already came out and said the guy's full of crap. I saw the guy's interview. I'm no FBI guy to see if the guy's blinking and lying or whatever. All I can tell you is what he said. Good luck with that one. And that is our preface to today's show. All kinds of. kinds of fun stuff. Oil prices are up another $3 in change today. That's not good news.

Yields were up today after being down early. That's not good news. Remember, costs, costs matter big time because they matter all the way up and down the food chain. when you go to buy something and the price is elevated, that means the person that's selling you it got it for that elevated price. That means the person that produced it produced it at an elevated price. When prices are elevated, there's less demand because there's a finite amount of money. when there's less demand problems. And the problem with inflation, it can stay elevated even with, you know, there's all this talk,

and it's stupid talk. Nobody wants to believe me when I say this. You know all this talk, oh, we got to hurt the economy and hurt demand in order to cure inflation? They don't know what the hell they're talking about. And I'm saying everybody, Nobel Prize winners, ex-Secretary of Treasuries are saying, we got to lower inflation by screwing the economy, getting demand down. That's not, that doesn't lower inflation. Because demand drops, what, what?

That's only a certain extent. Prices stay elevated because central banks. Too much of that in the system, them. And while they've raves rates, all they've done is catch up with the market. They still have not shut down there. printing. And what I mean by that is they were supposed to undo it. They haven't undone it. Yeah, undone it. They haven't even started. They lied. They got to roll that back. And maybe that does something. So when you listen into all that, oh, in order to cure inflation, we got a stomp on demand.

No, that's not true. They're hoping and praying. That's true. So not a great day. there. That oil prices are going up and the 10-year yield 3.054. It was down to 2.5 recently. Leave no doubt markets are gagging a little bit because of this. Whether or not it continues to gag, I don't know, but I can promise you this. No, I can't promise it. I can't promise anything. I can't guarantee anything. It is my belief that if prices keep going up, especially energy and yields keep going up. Not much good's going to happen. Up next, today's market wrap, moves of the day, whatever else today. I know, it's a morbid day. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with

pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with.

So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication, we deep dive into your OTC medication, and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong.

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or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDec's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, On-Dec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on-deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On-Dec or Celtic Bank. On-Dek does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval. You're listening to. America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is. Just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

So today was the primary in Florida. You know what primaries are? It's where one person calls the other person an ass, and the other person calls them an ass, and they're both fascists, and they both suck. And the end of the world, they will destroy the world if you vote for them. Don't you love elections?

Yay. I must tell you, it really doesn't matter who you elect right now. The massive debt and deficits are already there and it's going to continue. And there will be a point in time where the balloon goes too far and will rub up against a pin. Just let you know. Just let you know. they're taunting markets. Remember, there are our opponents. They are not our advocates. They are not on our side. They are opponents. Every one of them. Both parties.

They are our opponents. And some much worse than others. These defund the police people. As I've always said, here's what you do about those people who want to defund the police. Let's test it on their neighborhood first and then advertise that their neighborhood no long we'll have police. Watch how quick they hire their own private security.

These are the fun, the police people, are the stupidest schmucks I have ever met in my lifetime. You know who keeps the peace? Police, knowing they're there. But Gary, I saw a video. There are bad ones? Hell yeah, there are. In any industry, anything, there's going to be bad.

You do your best to root them out. Get rid of them. So that defund the police people have a special place in my heart. Defund their neighborhood. And then advertise it and see them move very quickly. They won't even hire security. They'll move. Why?

Because they don't give a crap about you. What do they care about your safety? So it really doesn't matter who you vote for. Some are better than others. Some are worse. I can tell you, leave no doubt some of the red state governors are much better than the blue state governors. governors who are nuts, bigger control freaks.

And you see crime and, oh my goodness, what I'm seeing in Seattle right now, what I hear from my peeps in Portland and what's going on in those downtowns? Just on that, it's an important vote, I would say that. But on the fiscal and all that, doesn't matter. Today's market wrap is brought to by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. But his proprietary indicators, go check it out.

investment dash models.com. Dowdown 154 S&P 9, but the NASDAQ was flat and the NASDAQ 100 was only down 9. The socks was up 20 bouncing a little bit. What was the story of the day? Oil prices and oil stocks had a good day. Though I must tell you by the end of the day, a lot of oil stocks gave back a decent amount of their gains, not all. but definitely that was part of the day. A commodity is better day with a weaker dollar today, but not as strong as the oils. And just a mixed bag of slop today. The semis were up today,

but they had a big hit over a few day period. The growth, not a good day. And as we said to you that, remember, we were talking about the state, their steps up off the lows, but keep in mind these things are down 70, 80% from the highs, a lot of them. Well, they hit the wall on Friday, all turning down. A bunch of them are going to New Yearly Low Ground now. That's not good.

A bunch of them breaking below support. That's not good. And we always ask the question, why is something down 70% and something up? A, the valuation part, but B, what else is to come? We'll see. Anyway, so not a good day for the high beta growth, whatever, whatever, whatever. The day today was about oils, commodities. Some commodity-based stuff.

Caterpillar and deer. It's commodity-based. I think fertilizer, that's commodity-based also. Agriculture, good day. But the rest pretty much a bunch of slop. Not much I can take out of it. I do want to mention one name Palo Alto Networks. PANW was up a juicy 61 today.

This is one of those software security companies that have really, they actually have accelerated their earnings over the past couple of quarters and a real strong day today. And we're going to keep that one on watch. Nothing you can do until earnings come out. I did want to mention that name because it did stick out. That was a sore thumb today. Other software security stocks got bumped up a little bit in sympathy.

In the doubt, a couple of things of note. You know how we've been saying managed care, good relative strength? Well, not a good day for them today. Maybe a little top in place, not 100% sure. The bigger biotech very weak. What's interesting is some of the, how do I put this? some of the very frothy and speculative biotech no sales biotechs are on the strong side that's weirding me out how are the speculative biotech strong but the meaty biotechs getting slammed answer is beats the heck

out of me but i'm not so sure that's good news not so sure gold was up today as i said commodities were up today. But for me, the big story. Oil prices, that's number one. And I will say oil prices are up about 10% from the recent lows. We'll see what that means at the pump because I will tell you here in Florida, I'm saying like 320, 330. I know national average is 390 because some of those common estates are ridiculous. But here in Florida, I'm seeing like 320 and 330. But that will change if price. sticks up and the 10-year yield 3.054. By the way, the two-year yield is 3.3 something, so the inverted yield curve is still going on. They call it the 210. And as I reported to you at the outset

on this show, I'm watching Europe. I'm watching Europe. And just remember, this is going on. They're still at 0% interest rates. They're still at 0%. New yearly lows. New yearly lows. doubled new yearly highs on both the New York and the NASDAQ today. Already, that's so weird. 140 new yearly lows on the NASDAQ, 67 new yearly lows on the New York. Less than thrilled to see that. And as I've said to you,

if you own stocks at New Yearly lows right now, I'd be reviewing. If you couldn't rally up in the rally, I'd be reviewing. And just remember, stocks are at new yearly lows usually for a darn good reason, something up. And this is where you gauge things the best. You rallied up. The easiest to isolate weakness when you rally up. And when you start pulling back, if those names are already gagging and gagging badly,

it tells you everything you need to know about what the market thinks, not somebody's opinion, what the market thinks. And that's what counts the most. God bless all the analysts on Wall Street. We pay no attention to them whatsoever. They're quite conflicted. Imagine you had a buy rating on a stock and your whole firm's buying the hell out of it and it's down 40%. You're going to change it from a buy to a hold there?

You should. Unfortunately, it ends up they're forced to change it once they're down 70%, which we just saw. Stunning. Some stocks down 80%, and analysts go from buy to a hold. That's why we always tell you, watch your stock. I don't care who's managing your money. Who's doing what? Watch your stock.

Up next. What else? I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept

as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating. chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut,

you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation plus some fast, Fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.

Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong. Healthy Choice Simply steamers are delicious and healthy. The tray-and-tray steam technology delivers crisp veggies and tender protein and tasty selections. Like Healthy Choice Simply Steamers, grilled chicken and broccoli Alfredo. It's a satisfying meal with 28 grams of protein and nothing artificial.

Healthy Choice Simply Steamers. What having it all tastes like. Cashflow crunch? On Deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover, seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses

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What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpe. In other reporting news, my fantasy draft is after a day after Labor Day.

I'm going to really start studying this week. I have picked number seven. I'm hoping to get Najee Harris from Pittsburgh. Though people tell me, wait a minute, you have a new quarterback. Don't do it. Now I'm going to go with him second year, and he look really good as first. But I don't know if I'm going to get him because I'm hearing me go quicker. We'll see how it goes.

I always want to take two running backs in the first two picks, but there's some really good wide receivers, so we'll see. And they really separate themselves from the pack. We'll give you a synopsis of it next week as we get closer for Labor Day. I will be in New York City for Labor Day weekend with my family. Hopefully the weather's nice. But you know what I realized about weather today? We haven't had even an inkling of hurricanes.

Here in Florida, I shouldn't say. say that. I know I'll jinx it. But I'm just letting you know we haven't had anything. Nothing. Usually we spend our summers on the NOAA website with the track

of it's coming from West Coast of Africa all the way. Not one. Huh. I wonder what Al Gore would say. Yeah, I know what he'd say. Everything.

things climate change. Con artistry of its finest. All right, let's go through a synopsis and our thoughts. Housing. It has become a big buyer's market and we expect it to be much more. And I think if you're patient, especially in what the areas that were hottest, we think there's a ways to go on the downside. We saw some experts on TV say, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah.

Oh, that was three weeks ago. They're not so nah, nah, nah, nah, anymore. We explained to you how it works. At the highs, people were jumping all over each other, paying a higher price than the actual, what people were putting the price out for. And that stops. And then all of a sudden, the affordability factor comes in, and then interest rates go up. And that one-two punch makes it tougher to buy, which means less buyers.

And then all of a sudden, no buyers. or hardly any buyers. At that point in time, inventory picks up slowly at first, but then in a huge way. And that's what we're saying. And as inventory picks up and people saying there's too much inventory, well, they've got to start lowering prices to move that inventory. And that's where the process goes. And that's where the process starts. and as I go online, like right now I can put in Denver homes for sale.

I'm doing it online. And I can go to Realtor.com. That's one of the places you go to. Or better yet, you can go to Zillow.com. And the reason I like that one is because it gives you a map that comes up right in front of me and it gives me Denver. and the surrounding areas of how many homes are for sale.

And they're just tons and tons and tons. You can't even count how many. And you recognize that wasn't like that three months ago and three months ago. And then you could go into different areas like a Green Valley ranch. And you can go and say, holy crap, there's 40 of them in there.

Make that 50. And then Cherry Creek. And then you can go on there and go newest and see what prices the new ones are coming out. And then you can click on high to low. Highest priced ones. And you know what I noticed? The first one I'm looking at is high priced on the market for 167 days. That wasn't happening.

The second one on the market for 62 days. This is how you do this. Here's another one, 59 days, 20 days, 28 days. here's one price down $150,000 here's one down $250,000 that's the process and you can do that any city around the country in real time

and it'll give you a real good understanding and you don't have to listen to anybody in what they think I go to Miami now holy crap tons by the way this one for 150 million bucks 19,919 square feet on Brickle Avenue. It's one of those islands, I guess.

But it's been on the market for 207 days. They ain't selling, at least at that price. $150 million. Holy crap. But that's why I like Zillow. I can see that map. And you can see where the concentration is of how many people are selling. And then you can narrow down the areas like a coconut grove down in Miami.

So do this homework for yourself and you get a real good understanding. Everything's changed. And now the job is just to sit back, relax, and see how long they stay on. And you will notice the longer they stay on, the more prices will come down. And the good news with these websites, it shows you prices coming down with a nice little arrow. This is how we do it. supply and demand this is how we get a feel for markets

supply and demand this is where we're going to know the wealth effect which is a huge part of the economy and I think a huge part of the economy going into COVID why it was so good the wealth effect of markets and housing we don't want to see that change but it's changing

the only thing we don't know to what extent we don't know to what extent, but we do know the more that go on, bigger trouble. If anything changes, we'll let you know. But games on. That all said. Tomorrow I'll be on with Charles Payne 2 p.m.

on Fox Business Network, and of course, same time tomorrow we'll be posting this show. You all have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. First off, be careful the lightning and thunder. If you live here in central Florida, daily thing. Make sure you hug your children, hug your family. They will feel better. You will feel

better. Got a lot of feedback on the marijuana. All of you agree with me. So good. And until tomorrow, have a great evening. Stay well, be well. Stiff upper lip. Peace out all. Thanks for joining us. Bye bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Gary K.com. That's Gary K. Today's episode was brought to you by Simple Mills, the feeling of the sun in a delicious snack. From their tasty crackers to their crunchy cookies, Simple Mills snacks taste good and are good for you because they're made from purposefully chosen ingredients. That purpose, lifting you up, never weighing you down so you can keep shining through the day. Find Simple

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