Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Oil Prices 7 Month Low

Episode Date: September 7, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Wednesday, September 7th, 2022. Here to talk about everything that we think matters to you, your job, your money, the economy, life in general, via the markets, and whatever else comes to mind as we don't shy away from any subject that we think, affects you in ways that we have stated to you have been quite unimaginable quite unimaginable

by the way I was on TV today I decided to say the word proliferate I got it on the third shot periphery proliferate proliferate that was embarrassing

hopefully well nobody emailed me Anyway, so ladies and gentlemen, I want to get right to the point, right to the important, right to the things that we think matter. And not matter small time, but big time, quite the big time. And, you know, we market ourselves as the best technicians on Wall Street. And we mean it. No, not kidding. We actually mean it. We've put the time.

We put in the effort. We've put in the study. We've put in the understanding that nothing is ever 100%. So when wrong, it's okay. Be wrong fast and be wrong small. What a concept. But we think we pretty much nailed this bad boy. So the first thing I want to do is cover.

The two things we have stated to you are most important to your 401ks, your money and the markets. For a very long while, it was God, J. Powell. God would print trillions and trillions of dollars bubbling up asset prices to valuations unimaginable distortion of price and yield unimaginable

the screwing of savers with zero percent rates unimaginable and amazingly did you hear any politicians you know the ones that care about you so much we're for the people I don't think I heard one politician say anything

anything about central banks screwing every saver with zero percent interest rates did you I didn't fast forward throughout this bare market we have been telling you

number one what to avoid what's still hanging in which is not many. What may be emerging like the first day of this year? We said energy. What's the cause and effect? I was on TV with Neil Cavuto last week, and I believe I said to Neil,

I've said this time and time again, just watch oil prices and yields. I said to somebody, I forgot who it was, that Jay Powell, no longer matters. And they said to me, you're saying

Jay Powell no longer matters, and I said that is correct. And I said it because, and I say it to you today, they've just fallen way behind. They're not even part of the playing field. They can move markets with their words. They can make things move on a short-term basis,

but they don't matter. And why? Because we told you. If the 10-year yield, which is your mortgages and so much else is 3.3%, but the Fed is 2.3%, what are they? Just way behind. On my industry, in my industry, they call it behind the curve. I don't care what you call it. We say it's him racing against Usain Bolt. So we said to Neil, watch oil prices and watch yields. And why? Well, it's very simple.

And we're simply amazed that more in my industry amazed that nobody else sees this. It's plain and simple right in somebody's face. The direction of yields and oil prices have dictated a ton. almost 100%. The only way Jay Powell factors in again is two things. Number one, if they

wake up tomorrow morning and decide to lower rates or print more money. That's number one. Or number two, go too far above the market. In other words, the real market is at 3.5.

3% 10 year yield and they decide to go to 4.5% because we've got to fight inflation. And the markets have been in pretty good lockstep, in pretty good lockstep. We just dropped 10 to 12% in the market in the last 14 days before today. S&P 10, NASDAQ 12. And we've said to you, well, we're now oversold. We're stretched extended to the downside. Dose of bearishness is now showing up, but we've seen nothing yet that turns the tide. We've also said to you, just want to let you know, oil prices are now down to what we call seven-month support.

What does that mean? For seven months, every time they get to this certain level, they stop going down and they bounce back up. that's seven-month support in oil prices which is breached today and bigly and if oil prices come down what does that relieve it relieves

the specter of inflation and what would that do to interest rates bring them down a little bit oil prices were down another five bucks today yields were down three quarters of a point today

hey guess what happen to the stock market today. If oil prices going up and yields going up hurts the market, notwithstanding Jay Powell, who we have said to you, just doesn't matter anymore. Market wrap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Moraback, one of the great market timers. No great errors with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-mottles.com. Dow up four. 435, S&P up 71, NASDAQ up 246, NASDAQ 100 up 248. The semiconductors only up 40, though, and transports only up 73.

But 1 plus 1 equal 2. Up next, we'll keep going with this. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So Gary, what does this all mean? oil prices break a seven-month low. Isn't that good news? Doesn't that mean something?

Of course it does. You got to... Of course it does. It does a few things. Number one, you already know how oil prices have come down markedly from the high. You know, it's the Putin price cut. Well, since it was the Putin price hike,

isn't it the Putin price cut? We just like making fun of lying Joe Biden. Love the guy. You know, there's the big mouth liar in the last guy and then the soft-spoken liar in this guy. But all the same. Anyway, oil prices, gas prices already down. The products that petroleum is involved in will come down.

If price stays here, It doesn't move. In two weeks, you can have another big drop in gas prices. What does that mean? Well, it means the consumer is going to have a hell of a lot more money. It means airlines, their expenses go down. Cruise lines, their expenses go down. Drivers of Uber and Lyft and truckers and everything,

their expenses go down. Shippers, their expenses go down. If expenses go down for everybody and everything, who benefits? The airlines, the cruise lines, the travel, the retail. And how do we know this? Because guess what's happened over the last year? As oil prices gone up and yields have gone up, guess what's gone down into big bear markets? Retail and travel and airlines and cruise lines and truckers and this, that.

and the other thing and housing so today is only one day but it was a important day oil prices broke seven-month lows which begs the next question hey gary do you think it stays down you think this break will have oil prices going lower well here's a little rule that we follow the longer support holds and then breaks the more important the break is just like the longer resistance holds and price breaks above the more important now we do know we're dealing with a commodity here wait a minute Gary how can oil prices go down if rushes we just follow price odds favor This was an important move today in oil prices.

Odds' favorite sticks. To where we don't know, how far we don't know. Are there any worries behind it? Of course. Does it mean that demand is dropping off? Alleged, could be. But all we know right now is that oil prices broke support. Hopefully it sticks.

If it's not going to stick and it's going to go back up, it'll go back up quickly. In other words, it won't go down, stay down for a month and go up. It'll go up in the next few days. But what else? Well, if this inflationary trade keeps going down, if interest rates, we're talking the market, not that doofus J. Powell. If inflation wanes, if interest rates kept going higher because inflation going higher, what do you think interest? rates can do, possibly come down? Well, interest rates came down decently today. Still have a lot of work to do, but decently. And of course, the market reacted well. That said, some caveats, some disclaimer, we were down 10 to 12 percent in the last 14 days.

S&P NASDAQ. We were, as we said to you, oversold. And what that simply means, and I believe we mentioned this yesterday, just something went down too far, too fast, and out of the norm. Barishness had finally picked up

by the measurements that I follow. Remember what I said, I think it was yesterday I said it. Certain things we follow that were quite bullish a week ago, quite bearish yesterday. And that's good news. So we got a good day today.

What else happened today? That we like. Not love. Like a bunch of names. Remember they, there were good reaction to earnings in a bunch of names. And they all miserably got hit.

But that was because the market dropped 10 to 12%. Just the best. out all of them today held certain support levels that we follow. Of course, you know which one. That all-important 50-day moving average, Tesla held it yesterday. Amazon held it today. For example, names that you problem, the simple M-S-C-I, N-E-L-T, M-E-L-I, D-X-C-M, all held the 50-day. So some symmetry there. The next thing that needs to happen is we need the big indices to get back above the 50 day, and that'll need a little bit more work.

If that occurs, good. If it doesn't, bad. Use the lows of the last four days as some support. Short a term, it's only four days. longer term support is something that's been sitting there for months, as we said in the oil prices. If the market turns tail and breaks the last four days, that'll be another uh-oh moment. But for now, very good day today. Throws a little hopefulness in there.

A little bit. And hopefully builds what we call in the market a higher level. low, meaning this would be a higher low than the low we saw in June and July. It's only one day, but a good day. We'll take it. More I'm next. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Gambata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is

the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology?

There will come a point when it will mature. Right? My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Kondo? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with

pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with state. stomach issues, we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach ache every day.

Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script,

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With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. And let's go into real important stuff. Now we're talking real important. You ready?

Here is my starting fantasy football team from last night's draft. Quarterback Josh Allen from Buffalo. I'm thrilled with that. pick. Running backs. I'm going to give you two running, we're allowed to play each week two or three running backs. If we play three running backs, it's two receivers. If we play two running backs, it's three receivers. So running backs, Najee Harris of Pittsburgh and Joe Mixen of Cincinnati. Wide receivers, Keenan Allen, T. Higgins, Adam Thielen, tight end, Zach Ertz. I got the number one kicker in the league, Justin Tucker, and I believe the number one defense, the bills.

That's my starters. Behind them, who I can put in any time, I'm not thrilled with what I got, but that changes all the time during the year because in the first week somebody shows up and you get, you know, you go through waivers. But I've got the starting running back for New England, Harris, though there's some. a rookie that's also pretty darn good. I took DeAndre Hopkins, great receiver, but he suspended for six games. I believe it was performance enhancing drugs. Better known as PEDs, am I correct? I think so.

Anyway, six games. I got him in the 10th round. So I already had my team, I figured that's a good one, and if he plays well, I got McKissick, a backup in Washington Redskins, but, man, the guy gets a lot of plays out of the backfield, and Gibson is injury prone. I have Gala Day wide receiver giants. I'll keep fingers crossed. Chase Claypool, I got in the 15th round. He's a starter, and I got me Cole Hardman, KC, wide receiver also. I got this running back rookie named Pacheco, and that's my team. I think I got a pretty good starting team. I think, I think, is going to have a good year, but he's older, and I'm probably going to

have to back him up with somebody. The Buffalo guy, tight end. I'll probably go there. And then the rest is luck. Last year, I had Christian McCaffrey, the year before, Christian McCaffrey, and both times, he went out and by the way you know what I named my team this year I can't even say it let's just say it was a letter McCaffrey's hamstrings you can imagine what the letter is right you know what letter it is the one that comes after E so there is my fantasy league I like my team but again it's all about injuries and you got to get lucky our waivers is it's an order so if you pick 10th, you can go first in the first week in waivers and it's, you know, as it goes. So you've got to get lucky. You never know in the first week if somebody goes down injured and then all of a sudden

you got the second running back and everybody jumps to get them, but, you know, the guy who's first in waivers can pick them up. And that's a lot of luck. Anyway, I think I have one of the top teams. And there was some weird picks as usual. And that is your important news of the And all you fantasy football buffs, you may email me and either compliment me or blast me. So what am I going to do tonight as far as my scans? Well, on a daylight today, I already scanned how many stocks? A lot. I start literally at 340 and I just keep going and going and going until I start the show.

and we'll scan again. Number one, anything at new highs is an outlier. The problem is most everything that has had new highs has failed. Recently, though, waste management stocks, there's only three of them that I follow. Some managed care stocks, it's not like they're flying, but they've really held up well. and this is the first day off of a low after a 10 to 12% drop.

And waste management stocks had a good day. And there's one solar stock that broke into new high ground today with volume today. First day off of a low. EnPH. We're not telling you to buy it, buy it, sell it, short it, cover it. For all we know, it's going to drop 10% tomorrow. Or go up 10. don't know. We're just reporting to you the first day up off of a low after 10, 12 percent.

It breaks out today on more than double volume. Solars is the other group that's been very strong. And of course, that's the largesse of government. Thank you, Joe, Mr. Climate Biden, doing the good deed for these companies, giving them the taxpayer dollars. anything above the 50-day moving average good, anything below bad. Anything, just so you know, bull markets are made of stocks pulling back to the 50-day moving average, but ascending, what we're finding is stocks have been descending into the 50-day moving average that has crashed along with price, and we mentioned a few names already to you. We're going to watch those very closely.

And there was about 30 of them. And they all had a good day today. NASDAQ, NASDAQ, NASDAQ, S&P, Dow, and very much the semiconductor index is actually way below the 50-day moving average. Others less so. They all need to get back above. Sox remains very weak to semiconductors. The financials measured by the XLF back onto the 50 day, but needs a lot of work.

Utilities strong. Why? Potential for interest rates coming down. Utilities are port in the storm. Recession resistant. For the most part. Don't tell that to the utility companies in Europe right now. but definite relief today.

Love to see oil prices drop. The Putin price cut is at hand, and hopefully yields continue lower. We'd love to talk bullishly to you. Good one-day relief rally with a little bit of umph. O-O-O-M-PH. Of course, oil was down today. Oil stocks were mostly down, a fewer up,

commodities were down today and interesting enough for a change the dollar was down today that's been on the move so that's today's story and hopefully it continues still a lot of work to be done and one thing we did on our scan is how many things were still below everything and still in bare markets a crap load but we'll take it Earnings this week, not much. Of import? Yeah, not seeing anything. Game stops up two bucks after the close.

Yay. And that's today. We'll be an interesting webcast tonight on this market. But I'm going to do a double scan first. Just to get a feel. By the way, in the aftermarket American Eagle Outfitters, you want to know retail, the stock has gone from a high of 39 June of 21 to 11.5 today.

I got it under 10 bucks in the aftermarket. A lot of retail in bad shape, kids. A lot of retail in bad shape. Tremendous comp. Up next. This, that, and the other thing, and whatever else. This is the one only investors edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM.

I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake M. Beta. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to, to have a legacy of building stuff,

building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature.

My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point? with quantum. By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Hi, I'm Dr. J. Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health. with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,

who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat, and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.

And all of those things are not something that, generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.

On Deck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews, On-Dec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at OnDec.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On-Dec or Celtic Bank. On-Dec does not lend in North Dakota all loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Kaltba. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm hearing there's some inflation numbers coming out Friday. Screw that.

Just watch oil prices. I mean, so many people watch the wrong things. It's amazing. You know, I've posted many times. The Fed and Central Bank's money printing versus the S&S and P-500 goes hand-in-hand it's gone hand-in-hand don't know why people have to look at so many other things stunning anyway let's add it up again we had mentioned coming into today that a lot of people were turning bearish that have been bullish that's number

one number two we already had a 10 to 12% drop depending on which index you were looking at three, oil prices were on the ledge. I think those the words we used yesterday. Oil prices are on the ledge. And oil prices broke that ledge today. We think that's important. Does that mean the market's off to the races? No. But certainly a good day today. And we saw some things we like today. A, a breakout that may be sticking on volume. I know it's only one. B, a lot of 50-day hold. I noticed Costco. 50-day hold. That's another name. Are we out of the woods? I don't know. All I can tell you is if the lows of the last four days continue to hold good. If they break,

look out. A ton of stuff is still in bare markets, and right now we consider it a bare market rally. Bounce. Could it abort tomorrow? Absolutely. just so you know during this whole bare market we have called near-term lows i think four times before this and i can tell you one time it led to three days up five days sitting around and then tank another time it led to about 13 days up four days sitting around and a tank then there was one that lasted three days sat around for two weeks and tanked

and then we had the last one which lasted about one two three four weeks sat around for a week and then tanked we'll see what this one brings you know how we'll know It's simple. The lows hold. More leadership shows up. Support holds for very important names.

The big indices get back above the 50-day moving average. They're close. One or two good days. The pullbacks are controlled and on lower volume. The rallies are stronger and on better volume. And we're more. get a couple of what we call higher lows. In other words, we can draw the stair steps. We can draw it going upwards instead of down. Then more new yearly highs show up, new yearly lows

dissipate, and of course we're going to need, that's my opinion, oil prices and yields to cooperate. Right now, it's just one day off the lows. But we think this oil move could be of import, of import. And again, I want to repeat, it's oil. It's a commodity. You're dealing with OPEC. You're dealing with Russia, Ukraine. There's outliers out there. Extraneous things that can move it. We know that. But damn, damn, damn. That war's still going on. You got all kinds of problems with Russia

and all that stuff. I hope you've been reading up about that. And oil prices still tanked today. You know, another part of this is interesting. OPEC said, OPEC said they would not cut production. Or they would cut production.

Or stay right here. You would think oil prices are going up. They're the opposite. So whatever is it work here? Good. Let's hope it sticks. So again, one good day after 10 to 12 percent. We'll take it.

The thing that sticks out, the oil prices. Which if stays down, should provide relief to yields. which should provide relief to Powell. The problem, he's a human, and he's a dufous human. Not sure he's going to listen. That's for another day. Also want to mention they're going to be raising rates again in the next week or so. That means your money markets are going to go up even more.

Just want to let you know I'm happy for you. You savers out there are no longer screwed as bad. Still screwed, but not as bad. In case you didn't know, the two-year, you can get like three in change. It's better than zero. The three-month, you can get three percent. But you lose it in three months. You get your money out, but you have to redo it.

So good day. I'm going to relax for a half-hour workout, then webcast time. You'll have a great evening. You all drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.

Email me what you think of my, you NFL nuts, what you think of my draft. And any other suggestions of thoughts. Until tomorrow, I'll be on with Varney tomorrow at 10 a.m. On Fox Business. Stay well, be well. Bye, bye, all. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

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