Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - OIL SHOWS THE WAY [06.23.2025]

Episode Date: June 23, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/THE BIG FIVE By Gary Kaltbaum June 23, 2025Oil drops.No…oil plunges.Yields plunging.2 fedheads telegraph a rate cut in July.Market sets up for higher.

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cbs.com or just come by store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,

your host day. Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's the 23rd of June, 2025. Hope you are having a good day, hope you had a good weekend. I did and I didn't. It didn't end up well. LaGuardia Airport, 3.45 p.m. flight left at 8.15. There was no weather problems. You know what they told me? ATC. You know what that is? It means they can't get their act together in the skies. Maybe not enough people in the control booths and all that crap. Air traffic control. What ended up happening was at 4.15, we knew we were late, and they kept changing it for

half hour, half hour, half hour, half hour, 8.15. I'm not going to say which airline, because I love this airline, I just think they really mishandled it yesterday. But we got home safe, all as well. and that is all. But man, oh man, that northeast corridor, hey, we have a lot to discuss. Some explanations today.

You know what I got today? Gary, can you explain? Can you explain how is this possible? Can you explain how the Dow was up 374 points? The S&P 57, NASDAQ 183, NASDAQ 100, 229. The transports 332. More than likely, you're listening?

I have a big change for you. Write this down. Mark it down. We have told you to avoid the home builders and housing-related stuff for months. We think they're bottoming here. Just bottoming. Not leading, but bottoming.

They went through their bearish phase and we think they're bottoming here. Just letting you know. Why would that be? We're going to explain the second. But we're going to do a lot explaining today because you guys are asking. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post on our Twitter feed, which is now X.

And if you don't follow us, next, you should. And if you'd like to email us, just be nice, nice. Okay? Just be nice. And of course, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets. will do the economy we'll do jobs

your industry your job Iran and all the news there part of the explanation so let's get going the market first off the market opened hot and they sold it off

why did they sell it off because Iran started attacking our bases in Qatar, Q-A-T-A-R, but then we rallied. And

oil prices were down a big, fat, juicy, $5 in change today. It's a huge drop. How is that possible? We just attacked Iran. The worry

of less oil. How can oil prices go down? Well, a few things. Number one. What drives the markets? What have we told you forever? We have told you to follow oil prices and interest rates.

Oil prices tanked today and so did interest rates, which have been going on for a bit. How can that be? Well, we have this motto that we have explained to you forever. explaining. It's not the news. It's how the markets react to the news. Now, some people would say, if you would be told, we just attacked Iran, and they're threatening to shut the straight of Hormuz, which is like 20% of all the oil out there and 30% of the liquid natural gas. Holy crap, we're screwed. And the fact that we attack them, oh, that's got to be bad. and we went after their nuclear, that's got to be bad. Well, you know who's been telling you it's got to be bad?

The ass clowns. What? Well, who were the ass clowns? The lefty politicians who were saying it was unconstitutional, which is a blatant lie, the president going in is certainly allowed to. There's a blatant lie that he cannot. and unfortunately politics have entered the fray

in case you don't know Bill Clinton bombed Afghanistan and Sudan George Bush bombed Iraq Barack Obama bombed Libya Syria Iraq Somalia Yemen, Yemen Afghanistan and Pakistan

Joe Biden bombed Iraq in Syria and he did that Afghanistan crap he didn't ask of any help from Congress and then there's the media oh they're so unhappy See the media when somebody on the left does it, it's hooray, hooray, but if somebody on the right does it, you get my point.

So if you followed the media this weekend, you would think the end of the world is at hand. And it's not. Explanation. You have a state, a rogue state, an outlier state called Iran, that the Arab countries can't. stand. They don't want any part of it. Just so you know, the Arab countries want peace and prosperity. They don't want all this crap. And you have an Iran that is threatened to blow up Israel and the United States and the Jewish states. They treat their women. They execute their women if they're not wearing one of those thing. Mabobabs. They went one threat too far,

and we knocked the living hell out of their nuclear. To what extent we don't know. And I know the president says total success, but you know this president. He exaggerates a lot. So we really don't know. But we've seen pictures. And it looks pretty damn good. You know how we praise the president about saving lives on the border because people aren't coming across and drowning or sitting in the back of trucks and dying of exhaustion or heat or whatever? Well, he's made the way. world a little bit safer right now. He's made the world a little bit safer because a nuclear Iran no go. So that's good news, number one. Number two, it happened quick and we're out. Number three, we have knocked the living crap out of their other artillery, as well as the heads. I mean, we, boy, oh boy, Israel knocked the hell out of a bunch of these terrorists. And they're not military, they're terrorists. And then there's China.

Listen to me carefully. China gets a craplode of their oil from the Strait of Hormuz. They have told Iran, do not close that up. And then there's our politicians. The crooked politicians, our politicians, that front-run things. Do you know a bunch of them bought defense stocks leading up to what we just did? They're crooks.

Well, they also bought up oil. And that's why oil prices kept going higher because of them and in relation to what possibly can happen. So we got to sell the news. And oil prices juice the market today because, lower costs in oil and petroleum is huge to the economy. It is a huge for the airlines, the cruise lines, people who make tires and sell tires. Do you know how many products are made out of petroleum? A craplode. So that's what did it. That's the explanation. It was a sell the news in oil. And I have to add another thing nobody's talking about, but you know me,

I'm very good at reading the Central Bank, those miscreants at the Federal Reserve. Last week, last week, a Fed head with the last name of Waller telegraphed a Fed cut in July. They do it on purpose. He let you know by not telling you they are going to, but saying, we think we can or will I lie. Anyway, he did that last week, and now today a Fed Vice Chair named Bowman would support a cut that is not by accident. We'll explain that up next. Explaining on Investor's Edge.

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With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So the next part of the explanation, how can the market go up when all this is going on? Interest rates have been dropping. The one-two punch of interest rates, the cost of capital, and oil prices dropping, creates better and bigger and higher profits. Of course, if they stay down.

Now, anything I tell you today, just realize the news is fluid. Who the hell knows what's next? We have to recognize that. But we are telling you, if nothing changes something, a mood. is afoot now. Interest rates down. Oil prices coming down. We knocked out a lot of their nuclear capabilities. How much we don't know. Israel took out a bunch of their terrorists. And the Fed has telegraphed that they're going to lower rates, which by the way means absolutely nothing to you and I. It does not affect the economy. They do nothing for nobody except markets like.

easier federal reserves. That's it. There's the explanation on today. With that hook of the central bank, Gary, can you be wrong about the central bank? Sure, but I've been pretty good with them, haven't I? And they don't do anything by accident. What about the tariffs, Gary? Well, that's a wild-com. card, but I have to believe, I have to believe, say what you want about the president. You have to believe that he saw that he crashed the markets. Listen, the people that love him will lie to you, but he did crash the markets and had to change that stance within a day.

So we'll give him credit for the pivot. And I don't think he's going to go back there. In fact, I think it's going to be a dying quail. To what extent I don't know, but obviously less is more when it comes to those tariffs. And that's today. And I know it's just today. But remember what we said in the last couple of weeks. I am going to put a little audible to what we said the last couple of weeks.

First off, we had said, if the big indices can break above the highs of January and February, that'd be big stuff and we'll invite more buying. And by the way, this is in a market that's not cheap. But let me put a little audible or addendum to it. If the S&P can break above the last three weeks with the NASDAQ breaking above, with the NASDAQ breaking above the last three weeks, that would be the good first start because it's been tightly range-bound action.

So the NASDAQ, that number would be, and 1980-O, approximately, give or take a point. The S&P, how about 60-60? I don't include the Dow, even though the Dow was strong today because United Health. And by the way, you know how good the Dow was being up 374? Amgen had some bad drug news and was down 17 bucks. That's six times one of six, six and four hundred and two.

It's like 110 Dow points. So we're not going to include the Dow. United Health is still down like 2,000 Dow points. But just let you know, housing and housing related. we think is bottoming. It's been an anchor. And possibly those transports can do... The transports are off the lows like most things.

But I think maybe if oil prices keep coming down. What else? Well, we've been telling you the big banks have been better. And I've got to tell you, when the market was getting hit today, Goldman was down $10. Finished up six. That's $100.000 points. And then some of the leading growth names that were coming in, very strong day-to-day for them.

You know the names. Netflix, up 22 today. Look like it may break another range. Spotify, up 23. And by the way, these are not gargantuan percentage gains, but these are the important names. I will tell you that Tesla, something about they had some. Robotaxi in Austin. Texas was up 8% today, was up more.

That's important because it's a high beta name. DoorDash gets upgraded up almost 10. CrowdStrike up 13. Microsoft up 8. I'm pretty sure I can't complain much when the oil stocks get trashed. Oil prices get buried and interest rates are coming down. I can find some negative things. but the important part of the equation,

just some pretty damn good action today in a not so cheap market. Market's not cheap, but at any given point in time, market's going to do whatever it wants to do until it decides it's not cheap. So good day today, started good,

then all of a sudden yikes, and I'm thinking myself, nah, come on. And they just took it higher throughout the rest of the day with the potential here of a couple of more areas, bottoming, and we'll see what happens. We'll keep you informed on a daily basis and to see how it goes. And then the Dow stocks, I don't know what's going on with IBM, trading at 30 times earnings with minus 5% earnings growth in 1%. percent sales growth. That was up eight bucks today to a new yearly

high. I don't know if it's an artificial intelligence thing. Beat the hell out of me. But that stock is strong IBM. And by the way, that is an all-time high. And trading it 30 times earnings. $160, $5.50, $6.50, $7.50, $7.80, $9.80, $10.80. Let's call it about

20. Eight times earnings. Still ridiculous. For a no growther should be trading at 12. So something's going on. So there's some explanations to you or for you. I have absolutely no clue what happens tomorrow, but today was really good.

I was impressed, and I don't get impressed a lot. And if you're thinking, again, how can that be? with all that's going on, I'm letting you know again. It was a successful operation as of now. To what extent don't know? Nobody dead on our end. Tomorrow's another day. Up next.

More explanations. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by Colagard. If you ever printed out directions and hoped you didn't miss a turn, it may be time for you to screen for colon cancer. Luckily, things are a lot easier these days, even screening for colon cancer. When caught early, colon cancer is treatable in nine out of ten people. With more options than ever, it's key to start screening at 45 if you are at average risk.

The coligard test is non-invasive, requires no special prep or time off, and it ships right to your door, so you can use it in the privacy of your own home. With just three simple steps, setup, sample, and ship, completing your coliard test is easier than finding the right track on your mixtape. If you're 45 or older and at average risk, ask your doctor about the coliard test available by prescription. only. Learn more or request a prescription at colagard.com slash podcast. Do not use the Colagard products if you have had adenomas, which are a type of colon polyp that can sometimes become cancer. Inflammatory bowel disease or other hereditary syndromes, a personal or first-degree family history of colorectal cancer or a positive result from another colon cancer screening method within

that test's recommended screening interval. Colagard results should be interpreted with caution. A positive test result does not confirm the presence of cancer. Patients with a positive test result should be referred for a colonoscopy. A negative test result does not confirm the absence of cancer. with a negative test results should discuss with their doctor when they need to be tested again. False positives and false negative results can occur. Do you still trust the corporate media? I know I don't. Get the real facts, the inside story behind the scenes in the Senate and the White House and the U.S. Supreme Court. Subscribe to Verdict with Ted Cruz on the Iheart Radio app by clicking the attached link today.

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Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just done. his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Colbomb comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to him and welcome once again to Investors Edge and by the way when I talk about housing related that's Home Depot and Lowe's home Depot's been very weak was up seven and change today probably about 45 Dow points uh Sherwin Williams has been weak It was up 10 bucks today.

That's housing related. That's 65 Dow points today. And housing's been one hell of a slump. This is interest rate reasoning on the market. And pretty darn sure, July is going to be a Fed cut, which, let me repeat, ain't going to do nothing for you. Ain't going to do nothing for me. Could help the market.

I think that's probably getting into. to the market right now. Now two Fed heads are at it. And that be the story. And let me add again. I have this little grouping of growth stocks in one area of my screen. Good day. Good day. Pretty darn good day. Semiconductors. Okay day. Could have been better. Could have been worse. Banks. Good day. And what do we tell you about banks and semiconductors? And let's just throw in transports with the good day, economically sensitive with the good day. Interest rates down, oil prices down, and leave no doubt. Oil prices going vertical over the last two weeks were no help. And today got back, lost, excuse me, of that drop. Today's drop. Today's drop,

last six days. So it's very good news. And hopefully it feeds on itself. What's next in the Middle East? Beats the hell out of me. But if I was to use a professional wrestling analogy, the United States is stone cold Steve Austin. And Iran is a jobber. If you don't know what a jobber is in professional wrestling, that's just the guy who's out there losing. all the time. They got no game. And they're pretty stupid also. And interesting enough, did you see the ass clowns now with, they're now have Iran. They're protesting for Iran now. That's what they were protests. They're insane these people. I've never seen such morons in my life. Just so you know, they're not just anti. They're not anti-Semitic.

They hate this country. Communist, socialists, and we're finding out a lot of them are being paid to show up. What a bunch of scum. A bunch of scum. Hater of these countries. They produce nothing. They create nothing. They yell and scream and get in away.

They don't care. They didn't care about Palestine and the Palestinians. They cared. it was Jews. They don't care about Iran. They care that it's America. These people are lost in space. I couldn't believe what I was seeing. As I have stated to you, they're now very boring. They're no-nothings. I laugh at them. Let them keep protesting. You know what we'll do? We'll keep working. We'll keep working hard, creating, producing, being great. while they walk the streets. Unbelievable. Iran. They're murderers.

They're terrorists. Stunning. Absolutely stunning. In other news, Oak City wins the NBA. Tyrese Halliburton, man, oh man. Buses Achilles in the first quarter. He may miss next season.

Seven game series. but I must tell you I really am not a fan of the NBA anymore. Teams win if they're hot at the three-point or they lose, if they're not. I used to like it when they were banging in the middle. They need to start thinking about that. Their ratings are not as good as they used to be. We'll see. In other news, I'm not so sure I can come up with much more.

It was an eventful weekend. I spent it with my father. I got to tell you, his brain is 100%, his body. He's going to be 94 in October, not easy. But I hung out with him. We watch four episodes of Superman. They have the old Superman on. And then we watch the news and some golf and hung out.

And then I spent six hours at an airport and flew home. Yay. Yippie, yeah, yay. next up there is a bill a tax and spend bill but lower taxes and much higher spending coming out of the republicans real soon they're trying to get it done by July 4th I don't think they have any shot as I've told you 50% of the bill I love 50% of the bill sucks actually 30% of the bill sucks Actually, 30% I love, 70% sucks. The republicans have conned you and are still conning you into believing that they're doing everything they can.

On the debt and deficits, it is a lie. It is a blatant, bald-faced lie. We are doomed to $40 trillion, $4550. They have the head of the OMB going on TV and saying, we're cutting $1.6 trillion over 10 years. That's off of $22 trillion of new debt. It's amazing that these Cretans will get on TV and say with a straight face that they're cutting $1.6 trillion,

even though it's going up $22 trillion. Oh, that's right. That's what Joe Biden did for four years. Anyway, it comes under the heading. You know our heading, right? They all suck. and again for the thousandth time, let us hope the bond market never wakes up

and sees how much debt we have and now yearly deficits, which are going to run $2.2.3 trillion a year. Let's hope one day the bond market doesn't wake up and say, holy crap, and all of a sudden, you're paying 10% on your mortgages.

and if you think I'm kidding, I'm not. I measure my words quite carefully. They are playing with fire, and they're shooting a certain finger at each and every one of us. And why would they continue to do this when they have a chance to cut back on all the Biden crap? Here is why. If they would cut a trillion dollars out of spending,

that's a trillion dollars less that goes to GDP. The government is included in GDP. Debt is included in GDP. It doesn't matter whether it's debt or real. And they have a midterm election that they worry they will lose if the economy gets too soft because they did the right thing. That is your story. I would say it to all their faces, including the president, because whatever he says they will follow.

So he is not a debt and deficit president. Up next, what else we got for you? Thanks for being here. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by Coligard. If you ever printed out directions and hoped you didn't miss a turn, it may be time for you to screen for colon cancer.

Luckily, things are a lot easier these days, even screening for colon cancer. When caught early, colon cancer is treatable in nine out of ten people. With more options than ever, it's key to start screening at 45 if you are at average risk. The coliard test is non-invasive, requires no special prep or time off, and it ships right to your door, so you can use it in the privacy of your own home. With just three simple steps, set up, sample, and ship, completing your colagard test is easier than finding the right track on your mixtape. If you're 45 or older, and at average risk, ask your doctor about the coliagard test available by prescription only. Learn more or request a prescription at colagard.com slash podcast. Do not use the colagard products if you have had adenomas, which are a type of colon polyp that can sometimes become cancer. Inflammatory bowel disease or other hereditary syndromes, a personal or first-degree family history of colore

or a positive result from another colon cancer screening method within that test's recommended screening interval. Colagard results should be interpreted with caution. A positive test result does not confirm the presence of cancer. Patients with a positive test result should be referred for a colonoscopy. A negative test result does not confirm the absence of cancer. Patients with a negative test result does not confirm the absence of cancer. Patients with a negative test result. test results should discuss with their doctor when they need to be tested again. False positives and false negative results can occur. Do you still trust the corporate media? I know I don't. Get the real facts, the inside story behind the scenes in the Senate and the White House and the U.S. Supreme Court. Subscribe to Verdict with Ted Cruz on the Iheart Radio app by clicking the attached link today. Paid for by Truth and Courage Pack. Not authorized by any candidate or candidates committee. Truth and Couragepack. Cashflow crunch. On deck's small business line of credit gives your

business immediate access to funds up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota, all loans an amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! With Gary Culper. So after the close today, KB. Holmes reported earnings downside guidance. Let's see how it trades tomorrow with a group that we believe good chance is bottoming. By the way, caveat, if interest rates spike higher, the group will not bottom. but it looks like they want to go lower.

And of course, add in the Big Mata ball, the Fed. I'm pretty sure they are going to be lowering rates in July. I believe they're at the end of July, if memory serves me right. End of July. The president broke his silence on Iran's weak missile strike. but Iran says they're not done. I would say they better be careful. It is definitely a big wild card,

and it is something that we do not know how it plays out except to say our military is pretty damn good. And I think they mean business, our military, and are people that run it from the problem. president on down. We'll keep you abreast of it with no bias, agenda, or ulterior motive. I do not believe we'll ever have boots on the ground there. We will not do that Iraq thing. And do not forget, you see these Dems who are full of crap now, just so you know, most all of them were for the Iraq war. They all voted for it back then. It was only when

they handled it so poorly that all of a sudden they say, oh, WMD, you lied. Just remember, ladies and gentlemen, politics. They don't care about you. They care about their power and their seat. And they'll say anything and do anything to win elections. And by the way, this is both sides of the aisle. They have proven it time and time again. Big time. time and time again, back on markets. Let me be a little bit repetitive. If the S&P can get above 60-59, which by the way is a half percent from here, then we're going to tack the old highs of February, 61-47.

And I think odds favor? I think odds favorite. NASDAQ, 19,000. 800, a little less than 1% from here. And just so you know, we've really, the market's done nothing for about four or five weeks now, and which is that, that's good. The high was 20,204. That's about almost 3%. The NASDAQ 100, 22222, and we don't think it's going to take much.

All the talk is about the V shape. well, the reason why we had a V shape is because you had a crash because of the president and a rally back up because of the president. They realized they crashed the market. They had a lie about it, of course. And that's okay. All these politicians, what they have to do is protect themselves by BSing us. And now if they're smart enough to not do those tariffs again,

I think we can be in good stead and have a good next few months. Transports are getting better. We'll see. We mentioned the home builders. Oil prices tanking. Let's hope that continues. By the way, I'm seeing oil down in the aftermarket, even more. Wow.

It's showing down $6.50 now. It does trade after the close. if it stays down the pump at the gas station is going to be a lot cheaper in the next two weeks uh bitcoin uh pretty much sat out today until the end of the day and x okay uh held the 50 day moving average if you go look at the i b i t that's one of the the ETFs, 50-day moving average, 5686, it hit 56-63. The GBTC, 50-day moving average, 78-90, it hit 78-51. So that held.

Tesla, up 2627, as I mentioned, the Robotaxi. They had some sort of thing at the Austin, Texas. And let me repeat what I think. There's all this talk now. I saw some expert that came out that actually says there will come a day where none of us will be driving cars anymore. It'll all be driverless. He also came out and said there's a very good chance we will never own cars down the road. That will be all pickups.

And I was thinking to myself, you not so sure of that but then again I thought the iPod was just another walkman so who knows I will not get into a drive-less car just so you know I let a Tesla drive me around a couple weeks ago as I said but I was right behind the wheel it was pretty cool I have to admit it It was pretty damn cool. There's just no way. That's what I call risk management. The market's placing a very big bet.

A very big bet. We'll see how it plays out. Tomorrow, beyond Varney and Company on Fox Business Network, I believe the 9 o'clock hour in the morning. Check it out. And until tomorrow, you'll have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will be well. Thanks for joining. Peace out, all. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero-chafe thanks to 14. times more stretched than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game

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