Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - One note [10.08.2025]

Episode Date: October 8, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom, your host. A thanks for being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's October 8th. It's 2025. Hope you're having a good day. We're here in Central Florida. It's hot today. That's the best thing I can tell you. Ladies and gentlemen, we are going to be succinct, in depth, and to the point today.

We will talk slowly and make a very important point of potentiality. I have no idea if potentiality is a word, but I put itty versus after potential. You'll understand where I am coming from in just a moment. Please listen carefully. You'll understand why. By the way, this is Investor's Edge. This is serious talk on everything that affects you. We do the markets and the economy and jobs and your job and your industry and the scams and shams and the corruption and the graft and the grift.

and all kinds of crap emanating from Washington, D.C. And you can read all about what's going on with this administration. You can go read it yourself. But we're not going to deal with that today. We're going to deal with the markets today because we have some pointed things to say today. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

Also on our X feed, if you don't follow us on X, you should. If you'd like to email us, just be nice. And of course, we'll also post it on the YouTube channel, Biz TV, and other podcast apps. Are you listening? No, are you listening? Good. The Dow was down a point today. The Dow was down a point today.

The NASDAQ was up $250. The NASDAQ 100 was up 296. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index was up 225 today. You got that? I would say the S&P, but the S&P is laden with the NASDAQ stuff. What do we tell you? The top 7 is 36% of the S&P. And they're all big tech.

Okay. We want you to listen carefully. We're predicting nothing. We're outlining potentiality. Maybe I made up a word. The Dow was down one today. The NASDAQ was up 255. Oh, by the way, gold soared again today.

The GLD up another $6. Dell computer up almost 14. Invidia 4. just remember some things are higher price than others. AMD up 24, they just signed that deal. Crowd strike up 25, snowflake 15, micron, 10, Taiwan Semiconductor 10, Sandisk 11. Are you listening? Good.

So back in 1999, an event happened. We were in a bullish market. in 1999. In fact, in 1998, in August and September, we had one of the biggest double bottoms in history. You had a big drop in the market because of long-term capital, I think it was. The NASDAQ went from 2000 down to 1357, bottomed, and in three months, we were up to 2533. NASDAQ. in February of 99, started to settle down and just drift.

It just drifted. And by November of 99, we had gone from January, 200 to about, actually only 2,600 in October of 99. But then, in 1999, the NASDAQ broke out. The date was October 29th above 2923. Let me repeat, October 29th, it broke out at 2923. October 29th broke out at 2923. The NASDAQ from October 29th to March 10th, went from 2923, to 5,132.

You got that? In that time, we're not making this up. The S&P only went from 1342 to a high of 1553. The NASDAQ went up like 80. The S&P went up 15. And the S&P went up 15

because of the NASDAQ types. You got that? The financials were in a bare market already. They were bearish. Other areas were bearish. The home building stocks, remember we told you the story, went down to one-time's earnings. It became something of a one-note market.

And then, of course, topped out. At the time, we had the most over-owned and over-loved concentrated area of the market in history in a select group of stocks. The NASDAQ went into an 80% drop to the bottom in 2003 with some wild swings during those bare market years.

In fact, the NASDAQ had since such big drops, you had unbelievable counter-trend moves on that. For instance, the NASDAQ went from 5132, down to 3,042 in two months, and rallied up to 4200 within a couple of months after that, a 40% move. You then dropped down all the way to 1,600, but rallied up to 2,300, quickly.

It's like 40%. You then dropped down to 1387 and rallied up back to 2100. An amazing rally. Everyone thinking the bare market was over and then dropped one last. time to 11008, 5132 on the NASDAQ down to 11008. The S&P wasn't as bad because the S&P had other stuff in it, though it dropped a bunch. That was an outcome of two things. Unbelievable concentration. in the markets. But number two, that'll be up next. Listen up.

This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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Back then, you had an amazing amount of speculation and froth. We have told you, and this is a true story, mutual funds would change their name from the technology fund to the internet funds. Companies were announcing adding dot com to their name and watch their stuff. stocks goosed to the upside. We also saw what would consider to be and found out after the fact some weird dealings going on. Vendor financing, where companies lent money to other companies to buy that first company's products. Interesting, huh? we're just setting a little bit of a stage here for you and just get you thinking of potentiality by the way i'm sitting here and i'm about to potentiality to see if it's a word it's a word

the possibility of something happening or of someone doing something in the future it's a word I did not know that. Look at that. You learned something new every day. The Dow was down one today. The NASDAQ was up 255. The banks were hit again today. Retail bounce, but remains,

you already know all the areas we think are bearish. Right? You know about the froth and speculation. we just mentioned yesterday that a man that went to jail for financial crimes involving drug companies mentions on Twitter that he liked an $8 stock and it went to $230 bucks in a day. Hope he sold. By the way, it's a no-sales development stage biotech that ain't going to have drugs for years. oh and it hit

230 and it's back down to 160 just letting you know hopefully you didn't buy it up there if and we're not throwing cold water on this just so you know we own the cues since the confirmation day right after

April 24th and have not sold I think we sold a piece we've owned the S&P since that time our positions are things like Robin Hood and Nvidia we just got rid of Tesla and bought a little back we made 70 oh and we own the gold 60 bucks in weeks so we're not throwing cold water because we're finding new stuff boy I got a bunch of names that we told them to our peeps today guess where all in technology land and mostly all having to do with artificial intelligence and the build-out of artificial intelligence, and the semiconductor equipment for artificial intelligence,

and the data centers for artificial intelligence, and the construction business for artificial intelligence through the data centers, and the energy companies to power for artificial intelligence. Because everybody isn't making announcements on artificial intelligence. By the way, we are not making fun of it. We're dead serious about it. Because the potentiality of this the next few months, we may see even more verticalness

maybe another word made up of these names and areas. AMD, advanced microdevices, was a laboring semiconductor until Monday when it was announced that AMD

is doing a deal with chat GPT. and went up 27% by the close. Open AI. Excuse me. It was up 37. The stock didn't do much yesterday, but went up 25 bucks today.

I didn't even see any news. So let me start by saying, potentiality. With a proviso. Another big word from your host, handsome and buffed. With a proviso, So we do not want to see more days that remind us of way back when.

Because based on precedent, if we get that same kind of environment, it will be the final leg before the air comes out. Now, we're predicting nothing. We're highlighting precedent. And when I see a daylight today where the Dow was down one, but you got names in one space in the market skyrocketing. Don't get me wrong, the commodities had a good day. Of course, commodities will continue to be decent if the dollar keeps crashing. So we're going to be paying attention every single day

because we're also saying companies not saying dot com or adding dot com to their names but everybody's announcing artificial intelligence I'm looking in announcements that are really not announcements

it's just marketing remember every one of these companies hires marketing people to have their stock strong their job is to promote the company Their job is to talk to the companies and tell them this is what's going on in the market and the world.

And this is where the best reactions are. What are you got going with? Artificial intelligence will continue along these lines up next. On this, the one only investors edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all. day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative

horizontal quick-draw-fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

Agents who are realtors do more than open doors. They analyze market trends, interest rates, comps. They can tell you about flood zones, mixed use zones, and decode acronyms like HOA, APR, MLS. They connect you to lawyers, contractors, even Phil, the Sewardcope guy. They negotiate, coordinate, advocate for you, close the deal with you, and hand the keys to you. They bring you home. Realtor's are members of the National Association of Realtors, right by you. got to be pleased with that the crowd is just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Colbomb comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to him so we're predicting nothing we're outlining everything the market is very much going towards one note and here is what

we will be watching for listen up if the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100 and the semiconductors start having the same pattern that we saw in 1999 forest off we're going to be in that's number one and we're going to ride it as much as we can

but back then was the end of a big technology boom off of some real suspect stuff. And when we are able to say to you, without an opinion but just stating the fact, that there is a bunch of this vendor financing,

and you can actually draw a circle and post all these companies on there around the circle and then intertwine them on lending and buying and buying and lending and lending and buying all artificial intelligence, whatever. It just reminds of some of the things we saw back then.

Now let me tell you about 99, just so you know. Out of the breakout, you had this drawn-out move with two visits down towards the 50-day and a big reversal, I believe it was early February. I'm looking now, 3748, within six weeks, 5132 on the NASDAQ, and that was it.

And throughout that first year, what did we find? We found companies doing just that, lending and have them buying, and it was nefarious. and companies like Lucent were bought out, I think, for a buck, if I recall, nor tell out of business. I can go on and on. And we are not predicting anything. We're not saying anything. We are outlining for you that we are seeing all these ingredients,

and we are going to try and take advantage of it like there's no tomorrow. And right now this NASDAQ, NASDAQ, NASDAQ, it's doing its thing. And all artificial intelligence, the socks broke out three, four weeks ago at 5,900, it's 6860, all artificial intelligence. And we are not telling you that it's not going to change the world. We're just here to tell you, the concentration in the market is beyond 99.

The money flow in institutions is becoming more and more towards the one note. If we start to see the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 go vertical, if only, be prepared. That's all. We're not predicting an 80% drop in the NASDAQ. But we are predicting if something like that occurs, that vertical-type move, an all-in-type move, where I'm getting calls from 90-year-old women wanting to sell their CDs and buy a nuclear stock, we'll know something's up. Just want you to be ready. But for today, I got breakouts.

I got high-volume moves. I got unbelievable reaction out of AMD. I got the semiconductors which had a rough day yesterday, got it all back and more today. I even have Apple that looks about ready to finally break out of the highs. I have software security that got trashed yesterday and right back up near highs. And we're going to be ready for the next names to come. simple as that as we head into earning season and then from earning season we're going to try and find

the next one last earning season you had a bunch of stocks gaping up like crazy on earnings blowups also and most of them gaped up so much too much that they've done nothing for three months and now a couple are starting to get out like a snowflake so we're going to be looking

for the next big deal not announcement but numbers because I do have to tell you in Techland you still have names like Salesforce Brutal Bear Market, Adobe, brutal bear market. You still have some of that.

And on my left screen, in the lower market cap screen, a lot of stocks been left for dead. It's a lot of narrowness right now, kids, and we're going to try and mine it for all its worth. next week we've got earnings for banks after that one by one by one by one the tech going to be showing up and reporting and we'll be up early we'll shut it down late and go through thousands and thousands of these earnings reports for what they say, but more importantly, the reactions. And that's the story. While all this is going on in AI land, the job market is weakening,

the construction market is weakening, the housing market is weakening, manufacturing is not great. The consumer, very much cost conscious. And you have the president fibbing about it all, telling the world, we're the hottest thing going, and we're not. Now, GDP, in the threes. I gather if you took out the $2 trillion of deficit spending, it would not be. I don't blame the president, his job is to market as much as he can. And as you know, we love the man for what he did with the border, saving lives, while the last guy, the worst president we've ever had, wanted to screw us as he went out. 10 million, 15 million through the border, being flown 2 a.m. in the morning to cities

costing those cities billions of dollars that could go to veterans and homeless. I'll never forgive Joe Biden, never said a word about Jews being terrorized on college campuses. Trump is, we give them all that. Anyway, that's a little bit of the potentiality. And we'll stay on it day to day. And let me be about as blunt as possible. If this occurs, you ain't going to hear it from anybody because they haven't done the studying and the post analysis that we have done of the precedents of past markets and just be clear about it.

It's all about fear and greed, ladies and gentlemen, those emotions never go away. The motions of fear and greed are the same as they were in the year, 1900. You can go back to the cavemen. Fear and greed. Our job, measure it. And when it goes to extremes, exploit it. We think there's potentiality. We're headed for some extremes.

We'll see. We'll be on it day to day. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, or whatever else. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,

and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

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In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. In the news, they have arrested this SOB that started the fires in California. I'm hearing the guys from Central Florida. And I'm thinking to myself, he's just a wormy, scummy, sleazy SOB, and there are dead people, lost lives and homes. And there ain't going to be anything they can do to that SOB. Think about that. And turns out, he was happy about it.

He wrote up some things. He was happy about it. They got him. Unbelievable, ladies and gentlemen. That's all I got to say. Palisades fire arrest. In the news. Well, yesterday was October 7th.

Two years. And hmm, something weird is happening. You see, right outside of Fox News in New York City, a bunch of, and let me be clear, Hamas lovers were out there where one man threatened the country with terrorism in plain sight. You can go look at the video, and I'm thinking to myself, wait a minute, you have somebody saying that October 7th is going to happen here, not should is going to happen here. And he wasn't arrested for terror threats.

And just remember, these are extremists. And also, unfortunately, a bunch of numskill followers. Yeah, I'll just follow it. They wouldn't even know, most of them don't even know how to spell Israel, couldn't find it on a map, what's Gaza? They probably spell it GASA. and I was thinking to myself, boy, there are a lot of people out there. They were celebrating the two-year anniversary of murder and rape of innocent people.

That's what this was yesterday, a celebration. And I have to tell you, I was going to be disheartened. But I realized, I think in this country, this 300, 150 million people. And I'm going to guess there's 225 million adults. Right? Am I right? That's about right.

Maybe 10,000 people were celebrating it. That means 200 and some million were not. So it's just a bunch of schmucks. Morons, ass clowns, duffices, no lives. jackasses, pinheads, dumb asses that'll never produce anything in their life, never create anything in their life, but hate, screw them, tick-tac-toe. But, man, if I'm president of the United States and I had somebody up there threatening the country with a terrorist attack, oh, that dude is in front of the CIA and the FBI right now. What were you saying? And that little wimp, wussy coward, give me a lawyer. That's what would have happened. I'm actually surprised. I'm actually surprised that something was not done.

At least that's what I'm hearing. And for all these people, However the amount, tearing down hostage signs, celebrating terrorists, Hamas, murder, rape of women, beheading of children, burning them to a sinner, to a cinder. For those celebrating, typically you'd say, I feel sorry for them, screw them. Let them live in their dirty bathtub. and that's it. And of course, what we are seeing, fortunately, employers are finding out who these people are, and they're getting their asses fired, left and right,

and let them try getting another job. So I'm actually not disheartened. I'm heartened of the 200 and so-off million that are not celebrating it, and do not like terrorists, or terrorism. And that's my take. We're hoping that, we're hearing that, possibly that, the rest of the hostages will be let go. Let us not forget who these people are. They're murderers and rapists and animals and would do it again if they have the chance. We will not

forget that. We do not think this administration is going to forget it. And whoever the next administration is, let's hope they understand it, because these people are not of this earth. They're nothings. And unfortunately, some are around us. I've encountered a couple of people tearing down posters of hostages in New York City. I do the opposite. I don't yell and scream at them. I laugh at them and I make fun of them. I had one of them challenge me to a fight. I said, go ahead. Nothing happened.

What are you going to do? On that note, you have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise stay well, be well.

And pay attention, kids. Have a great one. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary. cult bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four

times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.