Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Only Monday And Already Whipsaw.

Episode Date: January 9, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Explore more than 350-plus undergraduate, graduate and certificate programs at ASUonline.asu.org. Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's January 9th. It's Monday. It's 2003. And I actually signed some checks, 2023 today. Before we get going, as you know, I always give you out my picks for playoff. We used to do all the football weeks, and we were so damn good, but it's a pain in the rear.

We usually do playoffs, and we usually do the NBA finals, NCAA, NCAA finals. Tonight is the championship of NCAA football, Georgia against T-A. ECU, and normally I give out a pick. And as you know, I'm really good at it. My record is like amazing giving out picks. I must tell you, I don't have a clue about tonight's game. Simple as that. Georgia is favored by, I think.

Let me see what they're favored by now. This will take about 30 seconds. Georgia is 13.5, I believe, was high as 15. Over under 62.5. Should have bet the over in the semifinal gains. They were scoring at will. I don't have a feel for the game except to say, if I was making a bet. And I'm not going to, I don't think.

I think these teams score it will. I watch those two games. That's the only thing. 62 and a half is a lot of points, though. That's nine touchdowns. I don't like size points 13.5. But I think George is the better team. Anyway, if I had a back against the wall, I'd go over 62.5, but not a big one.

Anyway, how to start with that. Also, DeMarne Hamlin has already left hospital in Cincinnati. He's already going home to Buffalo at a hospital there. They say he's doing great. I got to tell you that he's dead, if not for the medical staff that saved his life. He's dead. I mean, amazing story.

They brought them back to life twice. And in case you don't know, this young man had a go-fund me that raised $2,500 for toys for kids. A fantastic thing for somebody to do. It's up to $8 million now. $8 million. $8 million. bucks. And every now and then I read about how the America is not generous. Eight million dollars given. Awesome. Anyway, we wish them well. We move on to the playoffs for the NFL. This coming week, I'll do that tomorrow. Playoffs are coming up. Giants. I think they're underrated. We'll get into that too. But of course, you know this is a show about you and your money in all points in between the markets the economy jobs

unemployment taxes deficit spending scam shams corruption and the nauseating nauseous i use the term human beings carefully those people in washington dc just letting you know that it's now come out they now are saying what we have already told you for months in spite of this president lying out his butt this year we're going to have a record deficit of $1.5 trillion that is after COVID spending's over so he lied record deficits none of them care though the republicans are now speaking very loudly about debt and deficits and one of them today was speaking about cutting defense spending. Whoa.

What have we been telling you here? There's nobody stronger on defense than I, but $858 billion. When just in the year 2000, it was $300 billion. And they did audits and the Pentagon can't come up with where the assets are of a couple of trillion. What's wrong if we cut it from 858 down to 800? You don't think they can cut and lose nothing? I think they can cut and lose nothing. There's no inefficiency.

It's all inefficient. It's all no accountability, no oversight. If you let me be the overseer, I guarantee I can cut it and they wouldn't lose a thing. So anyway, that's all going on in D.C. right now, and it's a mess. and I walked into today. I thought Friday's action was terrific. They gaped the market open today, and they sold it off today.

A nascent rally, notice the big word nascent, and that's how you pronounce it, nascent rally. I used to think it was nascent. From the three weeks, remember, we got trashed in December, now sat around for three weeks,

and had a real nice move Monday, Friday. We walk in today, we gap up looking really good, and something happened on the way there, and we'll go through it. As well as news of the day and other stuff today. Thanks for being with us. This is Investor's Edge, serious talk on you and your money, and everything else in between with a little comedy injected when need be. If you don't get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post on our Twitter feed.

It also goes on these podcast apps, and we are in the midst. We'll be throwing it on YouTube where you're going to be able to see charts as we do the show. Very soon. Got to get compliance approval first. Got to make sure that's first and foremost. So let's just get going early as we head into earnings season. Market wrap brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers.

No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market was proprietary. Indicators go check it out. Investment-mottles.com. Dow was up approximately 300 points this morning. No, not kidding. Finish down 113. The S&P today hit a high of 3950. It's about 55 points. Close down 3.

The NASDAQ today hit 10807. That'd be 165, 172 and 60. Was up 238 points. Finished up 66. The semiconductor index at one time today, 2745, was up 110, finished up 50. I was so excited this morning and I don't get excited. As always, we have no idea what tomorrow brings. We'll figure it out.

That said, we also want to mention last week, while the market started getting better, we warned you about certain sectors. We're actually topping out. They all worsened today. and we may have another area that may also be topping out. And one of the favored growth retailers coughs it up today, which has me stating to you, just remember, earning season coming around.

You never know who's going to cough it up. Know when things are being reported. That's up next. This is the one and only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Sprinker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun.

Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So let's go through it. For starters, Lulu Lemon. I hear. their apparel is very high priced.

That's what I hear. Down 9% today, down 30 bucks on what some consider a profit warning. Margins would decline in the quarter and set earnings targets below what Wall Street had expected. That's what we mean by one of the favored growth retailers that may not be so growthy anymore. And if it's the higher price,

and I've said to you on this show, it's much cheaper at discount places, but kind of sort of the same stuff without the name. I just wonder, there's something called price sensitive in the retail industry, or really in any industry. It's how people feel about price and whether they are making decisions on price. What have I told you in the last few months? If you go to the store Here in Florida, Publix Winn-Dixie, a lot of Publix. And you go into the paper aisle.

You know what you see sold out? The Publix brand. Because it's cheaper than Charmin, unless you see good deals. I just bought some Charmin, and I can tell you, $7.50 off of. I'm a very good shopper. price sensitivity so lulu lemon next last week one of the sectors we told you that looked like it was

topping out was defense stocks lockheed martin down another 14 today northrup grumman down another 26 today that continues. But I've got to give the cause and effect because headline defense is now a Republican target that Kevin McCarthy

the new Speaker of the House put the U.S. military on the budget block and that's what I mean by oh, were they listening to this radio show? And remember there's no bigger

advocate of the defense of people are the security of the people. But really a logical question is we're going to spend $8.58 billion tax dollars this year military-wise. It was 320 billion in 2000. What has happened in 23 years that we almost have to triple it? It's a good question that at least should be some oversight and some accountability and just look at it. You think any of these politicians even look at what it goes into, and there's nothing wrong with that. And if you're able to knock out 5%, and everything's just fine, so be it.

If you need it, keep it. But pretty sure there was a cause and effect for that today. And I'd be wary of these stocks right now, and they were one of those areas that we were telling you, were holding up pretty well. Northrop Grumman was right near a yearly high just five days ago at about 548. It's 495 already. Lockheed Martin, well, hit a new yearly high at 499, late November. It's 458 already. What's the other one? LHX, which is L3 Harris. It's gone from 255 to 201 already. I would just be wary of the group, especially now on this news that may be. And I don't the republicans can get anything done they can propose but just remember the veto pen by the liar

in the white house so defense stocks uh next i just want to just go through uh this little list if you don't mind it's uh the companies that are all uh the the firings i just want to let you know and I want to give you an explanation because there is a cause and effect that people just think, oh, look at all these firings. Salesforce.com, 10% of workforce. And of course, the stock is rallied on that.

Well, just so you know, what I believe has happened is they overdid it during COVID. And that's going to be, a theme as I talk about a lot of this. Goldman Sachs, 3,200 jobs starting this week.

Think they overdid it. Now think about Wall Street. What did we have going on? A gargantuan bubble, a massive amount of IPOs, SPACs, private equity deals, and guess what's not going on now? Do you know there's like no IPOs? What else?

Mortgage business. Well, interest rates have come down. That helps. mortgage business still. So what do you got to do on Wall Street? You got to cut down to kind of sort of pre-COVID or pre-Bubble and then work back from there if need be. Amazon, well we know that. 18,000. Amazon ramped up like crazy. They were the grand poobah during COVID. Delivery City. Guess what's going on now? Less of. So Amazon, Stitch Fix, 20% of the company's salary jobs. Personalized shipments of apparel, shoes, and accessories. Sales down turns.

Vimeo. Video sharing platform laying off 11% of staff. Duh. Over did it. McDonald's. Planting to make difficult decisions about changes to corporate staffing levels, the fast food company said with trim or reorganized corporate staff, even his plans to expand it.

business. That's a little bit weird. I really don't have an answer for that. But you're also hearing about a lot of technology, the cloud business. Just so you know what's going on around the globe, data centers that we're going to be built aren't, and data centers that were built are not being used. Why? Because they're not needed. Because the expectation of business post-COVID for some of these areas, simply put as less so. Is it. Is less so. The mortgage industry, less so. Crypto. You know many people were

fired in crypto in the last few months? Like everybody? Sarcasm. Of course, why? Trading of Cripo has gone into the toilet. In spite of the con artist, still touting you to buy it.

So just letting you know, and I have to believe just my thought process, some of the discretionary spending areas. We'll see. Up next, more on that. More in the market. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit

for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Sprinker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. By the way, Something that has absolutely nothing to do with you and your money, but due to the fact I have a radio show, I get to talk about it for one minute. I haven't read as the book. I haven't watched any of the interviews. I've watched outtakes.

You know, you get things sent to you. This Prince Harry guy, do you remember like when you were in junior high school and two kids got into a fight? you know one of those pushing fights on the gym floor you know the push fight that nothing ever happens but there's always one snot-nose kid that's on the sideline yelling hit him hit him

that's this Prince Harry seriously he's complaining that oh he got into a little fight with his brother oh darn how horrible he's complaining everybody against as he sits in his $15 million

Montecito mansion where everything sucks while he got $50 to $100 million from Netflix and book deals where where where where I want my privacy oh but I'm going to sit here and do interviews

all over the place he is the person sitting on the sideline yelling hit him hit him I gather his poll numbers are less than root canal right now. The victim. The victim. We're victims. It's amazing to watch.

And they don't even realize it. I gather they have nobody saying to them, what are you doing? Nobody gives a crap. Oh, but the ratings. Yeah, they'll have ratings. It's something that's the monarchy. And then you're going to have to keep doing it

Or keep doing it because you know what you're going to end up happening. You're going to be in the dustbin. Nobody's going to give a crap eventually. Go away. And he's putting everybody under the bus. Remember he said that they were racist? He's no longer saying that anymore. Really, the worst thing you can say about somebody is that you're racist.

And then all of a sudden, nothing on that. Anyway, that's my Prince Harry crap. Speaking of creeps, so the president goes to the border and does a photo op. And you know what he does? Let me tell you what the administration did. They got rid of the migrants that were coming across the border. They took the photo op to where nobody could see anybody crossing, even though a bazillion people are. And he blamed the Republicans.

Now, you know I can't stand the Republicans either, but this is nothing to do with them. This is all on this guy. I even got an email from somebody. The reason this is happening is because Republicans are saying that the border is open. No, the reason it's happening is because it's open. And they know it. If I was president, the board would be shut. And I would tell every one of these people wanting to come here, we want you to come here.

But you're going to do it the right way. You're going to do it a controlled way. And you're going to earn it. And we'll do everything possible to help you and the future in your life. I think there's two million people. Two million people. That's not a border. It's not a country.

All for immigration. All for it. By the way, what do you tell the people who came here legally? Money, sweat, toil, tears, years, and then became citizen. What do you tell them? Ha ha, suckers? Anyway, back on markets. So I want to concentrate a little bit on, we told you about defense stocks.

We warned you about the managed care stocks. and very simply we saw what remember when we saw the market topping in November 21 we said to you and the gross stocks topping would just let you know all these things are topping and then we use our usual line we don't know how far they go or how long it lasts the bare market and it turns out for a lot of growth stocks they went down 50 60 70 80 percent well that's not going to happen to the managed care stocks and by the way that's HMOs health maintenance organizations We warned you they were topping. Well, they're even worse today.

Even when the market was up today, 300. So just letting you know, you manned down another 10 today. United Health was flat today. Hit 500, closed at 490. M-O-H, one you may not have heard on Molina Health, down another 5. He's gone from 340 to 296 in like the last 6, 7 days. Signal one of the stronger names Just topped out at about 3.30, it's 303, and ELVL events,

which was Anthem, just went from 540 to 470 and 7 trading days. So just letting you know that's an area that's topped out. And we're not telling you to sell it if you own it. We're just letting you know it topped out, and you get to decide what you do. But we can tell you we just would not be buyers of any right now. until we say to you, we think it's bottomed. Next, though, we also told you big biotech.

We mentioned to your biogen, topped out. It was down today. We told you vertex pharmaceuticals topped out. It's down seven today. And that's really topped out. Broke below the 200 day. Regeneron, worried about that, though it had a decent Friday, but still below the 50 day.

Regeneron was down $56 today to $680. Drug news, but if you're bottoming out, you have bad drug news, you don't drop $56. If you're topping out and you have bad drug news, you drop $56. But not done. Simple NBIX. Neuracrine bioscience is down 15 to 108.

12%. United Therapeutics. that one's been strong, held up well, down 11 today to 265 break in the 50-day moving average. So big biotech I'd be very wary of. And there are others, but those are mainstays. But I have to add, I mentioned managed care. It's medical. Big biotech.

I've got to tell you, I've got to add other medical areas to that. there are some drug stocks now that look like they're topping out. Eli Lilly down 13. And by the way, a lot of reporting earnings soon. That could change playing fields, but we're just letting you know. So Eli Lilly down 13 bucks today. Looks like Toppy, if not more. And I'm just noticing Pfizer has never been as strong as Eli Lilly,

but not very good. Ab V, ABBV, looks like it may be topping out. Hasn't broken yet, but looks like. So we'd be a little bit wary on drug stocks. Oh, in the Dow, Johnson and Johnson, may have topped out today. Not 100%.

Big strength Dow, Merck. Big strength. Down four and a half today to 110. Still okay. But remember, if groups get in trouble, they usually get them all to a certain extent. I'd be scanning a lot of the drug names and other medical stuff today. I would talk about medical parts, medical research. We already mentioned to you like WAT last week, which got crushed from $350 down to $3.20 in one day.

So just another area. And we want to accentuate positives too, but we think it important in markets that have just crushed people in the last year, 18 months. We're pretty good at what's topping out. Pretty damn good. So just letting you know these areas, less than thrilling. Now, we also mentioned to you, there's been some. some small no sales biotechs that are at new yearly highs that's still around but there's no sales we have this little motto we have no interest in owning something when we wake up in the

morning and the placebo does better than the drug in phase two trials and the stocks down 50% we'll let you decide and guess what full disclosure we miss big moves on the upside on no sales biotext. They've done that. Full disclosure, we miss all the ones that drop 50% overnight. Up next. More in the markets. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Bester's Edge. With Gary Culper. Um, um, um, um, here's your playoff schedule, by the way.

Seahawks at 49ers, uh, dolphins at Bills, Ravens at Bengals, Chargers at Jaguars. Oh, because they won the division and charges did not. Giants at Vikings. Now, the Giants, I believe, beat the Vikings the first game of this year. Cowboys at Buccaneers. That'll be interesting.

Come on, Buccaneers beat those cowboys. Who is not in the wild card? Let's see, KC. I guess they have a buy, right? And who else has a buy? Oh, Philadelphia has a buy. Anybody else have a buy? I'm not sure. Anyway, those are the games this coming,

week and we'll see what happens. And by the way, in my fantasy league, I was in last place this year. I was in third place in total points scored, but big time in last place and total points given up. It's the rot of the schedule killed me this year. The second place team in my league had less points than I had. That's just the schedule eaten me alive this year. I had a great team. Even with injuries.

But if each week you have the second best team and just by happenstance you play the first best team, you'll lose that week. I had a few of those. And just so happened, if one player would have the best week of their year, I played against them. Kelsey, I played against them his best week of the year.

Jefferson, I played against him his best week of the year. Mahomes, I played against them his best week of the year. Brady, who had nothing weeks leading up that he had a week where he, like, through five touchdowns, I played against them. That's my fantasy football this year. So I'm not down on myself because third best points. I have no control to schedule. That was my fantasy football.

Okay. What else? We told you we thought that energy stocks, a lot of them are topped out, and we still are on that. But some not so much. The OIH, the oil services, a good last three days on stronger oil prices. I'd just be careful. The XOP, the oil explorers, weak as all can be. go look at the XOP versus the OAH, you would think they're in different industries.

Well, they are, but in the same oil. The XLE, the big oil, in between. So I still think a lot of those are topping out and I'd be wary. The strength, there are a few names that are much stronger than others. I can tell you something like a Tidewater TDW, New Yearly High. I can tell you Schlumberger, SLB, close to New Yearly High. but then I can tell you let's see what's a weak one

pioneer natural resources so you've got to be very selective in that area solars we told you we thought solar's had been topping out and we were right on that and phase was down another six today just so you know this was the

favorite stock of all the relative strength growth players for good reason. Strong earning, strong revenue growth, and new yearly highs in late November or early December. Can I tell you? I bought it once. I bought a very small position. I stopped out the next day. But more importantly, as we told you, we thought others were topping.

We figured they're getting them all. They got it. It's gone from 339 to 227 in weeks. which means you always got to keep focus. Other names like S-E-D-G, big top. The one name that has stuck out of strength is first solar, but even that's having trouble. Got a big upgrade on Friday, rallied up,

was up nicely again today, still finished up. But you can tell, it's the strongest name, but a little hint, a little lesson. If you got 30 stocks in a group in 29 or in a bare market and one's real strong, they're going to get that one. How do we know? We've studied it. So we're really not fans of Solars. And I want to add one more area to be watched.

Remember we mentioned that Hershey's had topped out? How dare they top out Hershey's? Seeing some others in the what I call Consumer Staples area. Maybe. Not 100% sure. I call it indications. of topping out. Not 100% yet. So I'd be just a little bit wary of those two at this juncture.

But leave no doubt the big biotech, the defense, the managed care. Those are real topped. I mean, real topped. And again, cause and effect. The Republicans trying to lower spending on the fence. Even though I don't think they'd be able to get away with it. Well, I take that back. because the Marxist party always loves cutting defense.

So maybe they will be doing some of that. I doubt it's going to be a lot, though. So Monday sucked. Had a real strong day in the first half of the day, off of a strong day on Friday, and gave back 400 Dow points, gave back all the S&P, 240 on the NASDAQ, down to 66. Maybe tomorrow's better.

All I can tell you, It's the pain in the rear. It's not an easy market. Not an easy market today. And you know I. We've been away from the bear market for 15, 18 months. And what have we done? We do some small counter-trend buying.

We've made some. We've lost some. But we've kept it tight as all tight can be. I also have to add, you know, we've been telling you also, insurance has been the strongest group, best charts. they were hit today remember we mentioned Travelers in the Dow

gave back the breakout today broke out of Range Friday gave it back today don't know what that means but not thrilling let's hope better day tomorrow you'll have a great evening drive carefully

when you get home do like we do it's quite simple make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you will feel better I promise. Tomorrow, do I have TV? I'm not sure.

But same time tomorrow. We'll be back doing the show, being our charming persons that we are. Thanks for joining. Always appreciate you listening. Have a great evening, everybody. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.

To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.