Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - ONLY POSITIVES

Episode Date: January 26, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the Biz Talk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's the 26th of January, 2022. Now, get rid of the pleasantries. Get rid of the niceties. Is that a word? Let me explain our theme, our thesis, our discipline on how we work this.

Since mid-21, well, I take that back. Since February of 21, we started telling you about all the climatic moves and all the crap that they were topping and they were done. In the midst of 21, we kept highlighting name after name after name after name after name topping out. November of 21, after so many growth names have already topped out, whatever was left, huge top altogether. absolute and utter destruction. We nailed it for us. We nailed it for you.

Little did we know at the time that interest rates would do a moonshot, persistent move up almost vertical from 7 o'clock up to 1 o'clock. And is that happened? markets kept going lower. And then the morons at the Fed, while we're telling you and our TV audience, that inflation is here. Yet they say it's not.

And then when it reared its ugly head, they said it was transitory, it would go away. And then when it didn't go away, they had to start playing catch up. They had to start raising rates. And we went through this process of bare markets. And every time yields would come down, we would get counter-tren rally. And then when yields would go back up, we'd come down again. and there were some stocks that actually had their ultimate bottom in June, July, even though in October we broke those lows.

That's just how it works. And we worried how on the move up the Dow was leading. That's not good news. And then we topped out in December a nauseating. December. An absolute nauseating December. And we had warned you how bad the NASDAQ was. It wasn't too hard to warn you. It was what it was. Fast forward to June 6th. I take that back. January 6th. The NASDAQ was probing the lows. The S&P was a high. low. The Dow even better. But we always worry that the Dow is just 30 names. You know what we mean by that. On January 6th, we used the three words we use every time we think we're about to get a rally off of the latest drop. We use the third. We use the three

three words again. Change a complexion. After the drop for about 13, 14 trading days, the market back and filled, back and filled, back and filled. And I will tell you on January 5th, I was worried about the NASDAQ breaking the lows. And you couldn't blame me because you were pretty much at the closing lows on January 5th. January 6 change that change a complexion January 6th what what is what we call a confirmation day but we've had those days before and what have they turned into some of them turned into pretty darn good rallies some of them turned into okay rallies some of them didn't last two days

you never know because then we use the next part of our language have to see what cards come out of the deck next but something a little bit different happened at that juncture you see the NASDAQ hit a low in October hit the same low in November and hit that low again in December

it had a longer time to settle in hold those lows charts were forming better Hope was better but I repeat need some more cards coming out of the deck we are just letting you know

nothing but improvement companies reporting the crappiest of earnings gaping up if they gap down they just turn back up Microsoft the case in point yesterday which is 11.7% of the NASDAQ 100 down 10 on the open it was up 10 pre-market and then they guided badly down 10 that's terrible finished only down a couple up seven today there's another part of

the equation and that is what we don't pay too much attention to unless it's important big down trend lines if you take a look at the S&P 500 and just go back to the highs of November of 21 and draw a line down to the high of March of 22 which takes you to the high of August which takes you to the high in early December we have now edged above a downtrend line excuse me going back to December of 21. Does it stick? We'll find out soon enough. We're just letting you know we had another very good day today that finished at the highs of the day with strong internals and companies heading topside on the crappiest of earnings numbers. And we're letting you know on this move, technical condition improved even more today. The worst thing I can tell you this second, we have a lot more earnings to come out. You got 26% of the NASDAQ 100 reporting next week. You have a bunch

after the close today like Intel, which is getting crushed again in the aftermarket. Strong-name KLA 10 Cor, it's down about $14 in the aftermarket. That's not helping the aftermarket. V's is up $4 in the aftermarket. We're just letting you know if this move above this line sticks, we're going higher. Up next, more on this. I'm Gary.

This is the one only investors' edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show, investors edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

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Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on

the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Garry, called bomb it doesn't get better than this welcome once again to investors edge i continue to not understand why intel remains in the down by the way boy their numbers were terrible we'll see what happens for market so let us go through our simplistic our simplistic run on the market run through the market remember we can simplify things for you if there were only 100 stocks in the market that's it just a hundred and let's say they're all of equal weight and let's assume we have a good eye for what is an up trend and a downtrend bullish phase or bearish phase let's just assume that and we have a good eye and we

We have identified those hundred stocks are in an uptrend. Forget what kind. It can be an unbelievable uptrend from seven up to one, little less eight to two. 830 to 2.30 is slowboat, but uptrend. If a hundred of those names are doing that uptrend, the market's in that uptrend. to fast forward instead of nibbling at it, if 25 of them stop going up and just flatten out, not go down, but 75 are still in that uptrend. You're still going up, but not as well. And you have to recognize those 25. Now, what if those 25 turn down? Well, those 25 are now

offsetting the 75 that remain in the uptrend. So guess what the overall market's doing? Oh, it's not going up as well. And then what if another 25 top out and join the downtrend? You have 50 up, 50 down. You're washed. And you better be in the good 50. Because if you're the bad 50, you're losing butt.

what happens if that other 50 that's going up tops out turns down joins the 50 that are heading down there is your downtrend in the indices that is your bare market that's what we identified for you now let's say those hundred stocks throughout a good period of time kept doing the two steps up three steps down one step up, two steps down. You're in the bearish phase. You're in the downtrend. But then what happens? We're going to speed it up here. If 25 of those names flatten out, well, the bear market is not as bad.

Well, you still have 75 going down. You better not be in them. but those 25 are flattening out. All right, we'll see what happens. What if the 25 start turning up? They are now offsetting the 75. What happens then? If of the 75 going down, 25 flatten out, stop going down and turn up.

You're now offsetting the other way. And then 25 more flatten out at the bottom and turn up. You now have 75 up. 25 down. The market's now turning. It's getting better. But the 75 turning up are not with oomph. They're going up.

Some better than others. A caterpillar at New Yearly highs. But a Microsoft is turning up, but just off the lows. Remember, not everything's in sync. we're just letting you know, assuming we have good eyes. The reason why the markets can't crack now is because too many names have done that turning up. Of unknown price, unknown time,

and the technical condition in the market, we told you this a week ago, is the best we have seen since the highs, and we have had better rallies off the lows because we've had more time during the bear. Notice I have not said a word about recession. And as we've said to you, all these people call them for recession,

as we've stated to you, the market is a lot smarter than us and them. If we're going into recession, why is Caterpillar at New Yearly Highs? Why is the loved at Footsie at New Yearly Highs? Why is the industrials on the move? United Rentals, If that's not an economic name, I don't know what it is, was up $39

today on a gap to the upside. Recession? No chance. Maybe down the road. And then, as things turn up, what do we start to look for? The last stair step down. Because in order to turn up and stay up, you've got to continually move above range, move above range. Move above range.

We have no idea what tomorrow brings. But the S&P today closed above that downtrend. And the advance declines daily very good, the reactions, the crappy numbers very good, though we got thousands more to report. And as I stated to you, Intel sucks in the aftermarket, and KLA 10Core, a stalwart of semiconductors down 17 bucks in the aftermarket. We'll see.

But we're just letting you know, them stair steps, not all. I can tell you that the rail's been trashed. The managed care stocks suck. The waste management companies, yuck. A bunch of the staples have topped out. But that's why we expand from the hundred stocks, as we know this, 200 sectors and bazillion stocks out there. And we watch them all. So just another improvement day today with a lot more earnings to come and not much more to tell you except that and man when I do my webcast and I'm gonna show them that sea gate technology today STX was up five bucks earnings down 93% revenues down 39 blackstone was up four bucks and change

earnings down 61 revenue down 70 up next more on the markets more on the markets this is the one only investors edge this message is brought to you by the One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next. big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're

going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with Unlevenor. limited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltobob.

comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to and well once again to investors edge and the market can be down tomorrow can be up tomorrow it can be down a couple of days it can be up a couple of days we're just letting you know more and more stuff turning up in the face of crap seriously unbelievably bad numbers and then you look when you see those unbelievably bad numbers and you see the stocks up. You want to look at guidance. Maybe the company's saying, oh, just so you know, our numbers stunk, but going forward, not even seeing that much. So fundamentally, I got news for you. If earnings don't get going again, oh, there's going to be a wall. We're just letting you know for now, in real time, this second, notwithstanding, we have no idea what happens tomorrow.

Intel and KLA 10 Corps are getting smoked in the aftermarket. It's early, though. Just a lot more improvement today. And I think we gave these numbers out to you a while back. 4,000 S&P, and we've gotten through that. 4101 is the high in December, 419. is the high in September. That's the S&P.

The NASDAQ 11-5-71 is the high in December. Where 11-5-12, we'll see what tomorrow brings. A break above these levels, Dow has been much stronger. That needs a little bit more work for where it is, but it's still stronger than both. And when we do our scans, we do them without any bias. assume we know what it looks like. And just so you know, the great Stan Weinstein,

and we've urged you to get his book on Amazon, Secrets Profiting and Bull and Bear Markets, it's dated, they have the GM indicator in there, but he does this stage analysis. It's different from O'Neill, in that he looks at bottoms that go from stage four to stage one, stage two, which is the uptrend. One is it stops going down, starts the turn.

I think we've got a lot of stage twos going on now. Now again, how long it lasts? Beats the hell out of me. Remember, we read to you what Grantham said yesterday. He thinks it's going to disaster along the way. We read further, though. He thinks into April we're good. We'll see.

We don't believe in that stuff. We just believe in dealing with what's happening right in front of us. I can tell you what looks like crap, but I can't say much bad about the market. In the oils, Exxon breaks out today. Big oil. Exxon breaks out. Only issue, they report in next Tuesday.

Chevron, big day today and a big buyback. They report tomorrow. I would have been all over those two today. Especially Exxon. why would I buy an oil? I think it's going higher. Tesla, back above the 50 day, volume 66% and better than normal. Interesting how it was doing nothing in the aftermarket, and then Elon Musk spoke and said,

no, things are great. Market believes it. Or maybe the market's just better. Keep in mind to close at 160, the high was 400. Keep that in mind, by the way. But if it holds the 50-day moving average, and it's the first time back above since September, you know what that means? It's good news. It's a start.

Of course, if it breaks back below, not good. We just mentioned to you, KLA 10 core and Intel bad semiconductors. STM microelectronics, nice gap up today on strong earnings. On the other end, Texas Instruments, bad reaction on earnings. That's what we mean by. you better get underneath the hood. I mentioned to you bad earnings. New core, steel stock.

Up 13 today to 169. Earnings down 39, revenues down 16. That's their worst quarter in a year, and the stock's rallying towards the old highs. Steel Dynamics, another steel name. That broke into new high ground today on their worst earnings report in the last year. Earnings down 24, revenues down 9.

What gives? Beats the heck out. of me except if the market's a forward-looking indicator it better be looking at good stuff going forward and of course we had a GDP out today better and expected at 2.9% remember everybody's been telling you recession we were telling recession a long time ago we had six months of it but once caterpillars started getting on the move and European markets on the move there's no way we're having a recession market's smarter than us It's smarter than you.

It's smarter all those geniuses. How can this also happen to Fed? They're tightening. We don't care. You know why? We told you just watch yields. Yields just come down from 4.3 to 3.5. Now, does that mean we go higher from here?

Hell no. We're just letting you know. More and more into stage two. Turn in the corner, stair steps up. Out of that morass. M-O-R-A. ASS, go look it up if you don't know it. Some people don't know that word.

Don't even ask what some people have said when I've used that word. They put it into two words. You can figure it out yourself because people are insane. And today's market wrap, finish at the highs of the day, brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohrabach, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out.

investment dash models.com. 205 on the Dow, 44 S&P, 190 NASDAQ, 236, NASDAQ, SOX up 47. Transports were flat, but they were down like 200. In the Dow, Salesforce.com, up nine. They got an activist in there. We mentioned Chevron up eight and change.

Microsoft up seven. That thing was down 10 in the aftermarket. Goldman up five. That got trashed on earnings and is trying to rally up. All we can tell you is, let's hope this continues. That's all we can tell you. That's all we can tell you. Notwithstanding a bazillion more earnings to come.

And 26% of the NASDAQ 103 names next week. Besides the rest that are coming at you. China had another decent day today. And that's your story. Yay. Your 401k's. doing much better. By the way, we were down 300 on the open yesterday, same thing the day before and came back those two days. What's a sign of a better market? Bad opens, better closes.

Guess what we closed it today? The high of the day. What does that signify? Institutions, positioning. That's how they do it. Not making it up. Advanced the clients at the close today, another good day. And it wasn't really that good during the day. Gold was weaker today. By the way, I saw a marijuana tout today. Somebody's been telling you to buy marijuana stocks all the way down 90% gave up today. Another reason why, watch your stocks. Never lose big.

Always have a fail safe. And when I say this guy was a tout artist, oh, he was a tout artist. No, we're not going to mention his name. He gave up. You would think after 90%, you would think after 50% maybe they would cry uncle. No.

And of course, we were right. They were wrong. Up next. What else went on today? This is the one only investors, this message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. used relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Wester's Edge. With Gary Culpe.

So let me throw cold water just a little bit. day by day if things change we'll let you know but it's tougher to change markets when so many are turning the corner it's the best way i can explain it when so many are turning the corner and when so many crappy earnings reports not only don't go down but get bought up with a fervor uh in the news by the way you you know what i think of polls right you want to know jobs. How is it there's 300 and some odd million people in this country, yet they will tell you a poll of 1,000 people, this is what the United States thinks. How full of crap can people be? Oh, they're scientific. Scientific! What is it? 200 and some odd million adults? A poll of a thousand people? And then they, you know what they do with the poll, though? If they want to make the Dems look better, they kind of have more Democrats being

polled and if they want the republic. You get my point? I should start that business. It's another con, poll of a thousand people. Remember the polls that Clinton was going to kick Trump's butt in the election? How'd that go? I bring that up because, you know, I can't stand any of, but I was just looking here. 19% of Americans have a favorable view of Kevin McCarthy.

He's now the Speaker of the House. I bet you they didn't even know who he is. By the way, I can't stand him or any of them. I think they all suck. But I just read these polls and I'm like laughing. And people use it as gospel. In the news, the SEC is now floating a ban on Wall Street. street activities linking to 2008 crisis.

You know what band that is? What have I complained to you about? I guess maybe they're listening finally. Goldman Sachs, now get this, created mortgage-backed securities and sold them. And you know, when they sell them to somebody else, they put it a package. And when you sell somebody something, you know what you're doing.

Hey, go buy these. These are, you know, we put these together. other. They immediately went and short of them. They knew they sucked. And Goldman Sachs made a ton of money. And you would think they would be cited or fine. Maybe somebody indicted? No, nothing happened to them. But now the SEC is coming in and wants to ban the ability for any of these entities to go short products that they sold to others, which should be the Norm. Talk about unethical. The commission voted 5-0 to repropose a long-delayed rule that would prohibit conflicts of interest. I got news for you. Me? If I start playing conflict of interest, I'm going to be shut down. I have no connections with D.C. Goldman Sachs does or did. What else today that I can talk to you about? Well, I have. I'm not. I'm not. I'm I can get back into the debt ceiling madness, but we already know what's going on.

They're a gargantuan con job. At least the Republicans are trying to do something about it. And the things that come out of the mouths of people like Chuck Schumer, another lifer who has destroyed the future of this country. If we don't raise more debt and the Republicans are going to take food off your table and they want to cut your Social Security and your Medicare and your Republicans are bad, I got news for your kids. If we don't do something about this blob, Schumer and Biden's government, well, it's all their government.

We're screwed. Joe Biden has taken spending from $4.4 trillion to $6 trillion, and that doesn't come out of them. It comes out of us. And of that $6 trillion, $1.5 trillion is going to be debt while they lie about it. So just want to let you know all that crap's going on today also. Yay. Isn't that great? And by the way, tomorrow I'll be on with Charles Payne, not Charles Payne, Neil Cavuto, 12 o'clock hour.

Saturday will be on with Neil Cavuto on Fox News in the 10 to 12. And we're going to be talking about that wealth tax alliance that I spoke about yesterday. Because these states are insane. Nine states are trying to come up with laws that if you left five years ago, they can go and roll back money out of you. Based on your wealth. definition of control freak Marxist They're not going to get anybody moving to their state that has means

They're nuts They have no understanding of economics running the show in these states And interesting those nine states Huh Yeah New York, California, Washington Want me to continue? chiefed by Marxists.

And by the way, I don't use that pejoratively. I mean it. They're Marxists. They're control freaks. And they do it with taxes, fees, fines, rules, regulations, mandates, a kick in your grapefruits. And I really like the Eagles this weekend. The only thing keeping me from really jumping all over it. I come up with my own line before I look at a football game.

That feels like the line should be six or seven. They're only given two and a half. And when I see a line like that, it tells you they are begging you to bet the Eagles, which scares me. But man, oh man, I've watched them closely. Not to say San Fran is bad, but Eagles are at home. Rookie quarterback on the other team? Anyway, we'll talk about that more to more. The other game I have no feel for, and you don't know if Mahomes is injured.

Anyway, you'll have a great evening. Drive carefully. We're going to have to deal with a couple of gaps down, a couple of semiconductors tomorrow. We'll see what happens. And when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I promise. Again, we'll be on Neil Cavuto, 12 o'clock hour tomorrow. Neil Cavuto between 10 and 12. Tomorrow, Fox Business, Fox News on Saturday. And have a great evening, everybody. Really appreciate you listening. hopefully this continues. Bye, bye, all.

This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details.