Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - OOPS!

Episode Date: November 2, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's November 2nd, 2022. And let's get rid of the pleasantries very quickly. we have lots to discuss. I was thinking to myself, how do I want to do this? Do I want to backtrack or do I want to start today?

And I decided I must backtrack to give you the background on where we are, how we got there, and then I promise we'll have plenty of time to talk about today. I hope you don't mind and I hope I do not bore you. And when I say bore you, I say that and mean that because we are dealing with them. So, unfortunately, somehow, someway, somewhere at a given point in time, it became the most powerful people on earth were not presidents or prime ministers. they were central bankers. It never used to be this way. What a central banker is supposed to be

is somebody that keeps the financial system stable. To keep the economy okay. To keep things okay. And they used to be on the fringes. What does that mean the fringes? Well, they used to move something around called the Fed funds. What the Fed funds are is money being moved around and loaned between banks. If I go to Google the words Fed Fed funds definition, excess reserves that commercial banks and other financial

institutions deposit at a regional federal bank, the interest rate that banks charge each other to borrow or lend excess reserves overnight. That's what it is. And what, as the economy would move here and there, central bankers used to move a quarter point, move a half a point. If there was some real trouble out there, move a little bit more. I remember in 98 we had the long-term capital blow up. I'm the one to get into that. Anyway, then here's what happened. And we started warning you at that moment.

We had a central banker named Ben Bernanke. before him Alan Greenspan and what they did they kept money too easy. It created the real estate bubble. And part of that real estate bubble was all the crooks on Wall Street leveraged all these things called mortgage-backed securities. They leveraged them five to one, ten to one. Some people leveraged them 20 and 30 to one. Why?

Because they always paid. Hey, if I can leverage something 10 to 1, I'm making 10 times my money what I normally would. and I have no risk. That's the thought process at the time. And then they found out, oops. So what ended up happening was everything blew up. The financial system was in disarray.

Lehman goes out of business. Merrill Lynch, Wachovia, countrywide financial. These people that were running in a lot of these places, not all of them were just crooked as crooked can be. The rating services were rating mortgage-backed securities, AAA when they were triple Z. There are emails that came out. people at the ratings agency saying,

why are we rating this thing AAA when it's a bunch of, I can't use the word, I'll use the word crap. None of them got indicted. The people that were running the show at these big investment firms knew about all the problems, lied about all the problems, committed fraud. Nothing ever happened to them. Not only were they not indicted,

you know what else happened, right? Not only were they not indicted. They stayed in their jobs and made billions. became billionaires. How did that happen? A guy named Ben Bernanke, who was the head of the central bank, who for a year said everything was fine. Don't worry, everything's okay. We know there's subprime lending. We know we're lending to people that may be less credit worthy, but don't worry because we have modern technology that helps us through this and everything's fine. He also went and said, housing never goes down. The economy is sound. Everything's great and all things crap to bed. What did he do? started printing $85 billion a month. What he do took rates down to nothing. That's what he did.

And of course, the market reacted well. I remember a guy named David Tepper, one of the great hedge fund managers came out and said, just buy the hell out of the market. They're going insane with easy money, and the markets love that, boom, boom, boom, and guess what the markets did. And then Janet Yellen came in as the Treasury, the central banker. And to her credit, and I'll take the way the credit in a second, she slowed things down.

The problem was she was involved with Bernanke. She was a culprit. But what she decided to do was slow things down, less money printing, slow down, slow down, do it slowly. We don't want to upset markets. And we went through some strife back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. But they never rolled back the printing of the money. They stopped.

They never really rolled back. And then came Jay Powell. And he said he is not a dove. he is a hawk and what he did was he started raising rates look at that and i was happy as all hell why because we want normality in the markets and you know what normality is just doing the right thing and then what happened markets went down too much we found out who j powell was he didn't care about the economy he cared about markets why would he care about markets why because the economy was based on the wealth effect they were so easy with policy

And by the way, not just us, but around the globe, that it created all kinds of crazy crap. This is by the way, this is before the real nonsense came in. And he decided to change his stance and what did the markets do starting Christmas of 2018. The next day, the markets rallied. J-Powell was on to the market. Markets rally. Guess what happened? Markets stopped going up.

He started lowering rates. Markets rallied again. Markets started dropping again. He started lowering rates again. Then markets rallied again. And throughout 2019, it was back and forth between J. Powell and markets until October of 19. Before COVID, he decided to start printing money, even though the economy was in shape at the time. At least we were told was in shape.

GDP was in the two-threes. Unemployment was in the threes, and he's printing money. And then he lied to the investing public and saying, but what is not really, printing of money even though we know differently. And that had us in October of 2019 telling you buy the hell out of the market. He was printing money. And guess what happened in October of 19? Everything rallied into February of 2020 until COVID hit. And the market's cracked. What does Jay Powell do? Takes rates immediately down to zero. And you know, I really can't blame him for that. Why? We,

they shut down the economy. And then he decided to print trillions. And then markets kept going down. So he decided to print trillions more. And markets kept going down. And we knew eventually COVID would go away. It's somewhere along the line. We'll be back. But he printed more. Took us to nine trillion of printed money, unprecedented. I can't even begin to tell you how much that is. It's just fricking gargantuan. He got the people in Europe to do the same. Japan was already doing it. And what happened? The markets were off to the races. But what did the markets do also? It created gargantuan bubbles. Asinine, ass a 10, ass 11 bubbles. Things you wouldn't even dream of. Coins became mainstream. Coins? 20,000 coins came out of nowhere. And they got mainstream. A couple of names got

mainstream? They went insane to the upside? The Robin Hood traders. The short-squeased traders. Marijuana stocks, SPACs, money grabs by a bunch of crooks. Not all, but a bunch. 3D stocks, electric vehicles, game stop, AMC theaters, bed, bath, and beyond. Bubbles. And what did this do? It created the biggest wealth effect. wealth inequality in history. Why? Because he took rates to zero, savers get nothing, and he bubbled up all assets. Somebody paid 18 grand for an invisible sculpture. NFT showed up. What the hell's an NFT? People were paying $2 million for an NFT, that they can't sell for $250 now. Next up, we'll take you to today. It was interesting.

I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. I don't usually do this often. First off, thank you. I cannot begin to tell you how many hundreds of emails I got from you people wishing me well and the medical stuff. I'm doing great.

I have doctors calling me from across the U.S. I've had neurologists call me. I mean, amazing. Amazing. Your handsome and buffed toast feels loved. And I thank you. From the bottom of my heart, I can't begin to tell you what that means. Next.

Don't usually do this, but I'm going to put it out there. If any of you are at a company or run a company and are really good at it, I'm in the market for a good RIA compliance firm to be my RIA compliance people. We're on the look again. You got that? If you're based in Florida, the better. If not, that's okay. If you're in that business, but you're in that business.

I need you to be good. Email me at gharicay.com or gulp bomb at callbomb.com. We're in the, looking for compliance stuff. So, we got all these bubbles and ridiculous valuations also. Remember, we would get on the show and say to you, oh, this has no sales but a $10 billion market cap. How many times did we do that? to the big one Rivian

where it had a $160 billion market cap I believe almost as much as GM in Ford even though they had no sales at the time and GM and Ford had $260 billion in sales. It was insane and of course we yelled on TV and on radio about Rivian and I think it was 170

it's now 31 and still ridiculously overvalued. By the way they've sold a bunch of cars they had a deal with Amazon who owns a piece of the company anyway you get my point So the valuations got insane. Jay Powell created this gargantuan massive bubble, and we warned you in advance, and we warned you as they were popping.

They started popping February of 21. So market tops, bubbles pop, market worsens. We go into this bare market. And as we have told you and as we have taught you throughout the years, there are certain rules of bare markets. One of the big rules are, and nobody believes us until they experience it or see it,

And we didn't believe it when we were first told it by William O'Neill that in bare markets, in bare markets, a lot of the prior leaders of the bull will drop 70% on average. And guess what's happened? Some stalwarts are down 70% from the high. So we got these big bear markets. One of the things that J. Powell created on top of the bubbles and top of the ridiculous wealth inequality, the distortions are price. and yield on the bond market, which is now unwound itself in a very big way, the creation of all this, put the market's in big trouble. But one of the outcomes was inflation. Who warned you about inflation? You know, there's a simple economic law, too much money chasing too few hands

or nothing is going to create inflation. You combine that with the asinine spending out government. You combine that with Biden from day one saying we're going to do everything to halt production of oil, which had every speculator, investor, and trader, buy the hell out of the price of oil. And guess what happened to oil prices? Inflation. And of course, these people thinking they're omnipotent. Remember, every time he printed more money, markets went up. You've got to believe you think you're a genius. Look at me. I'm a hero. I'm making everybody wealthy. You got to think that's what they're believing. That is human nature, right? You do things and you get good outcomes. You want to continue doing good things, not knowing that the things you're doing is steroids.

And you know how bad steroids are for you. People are dying left and right of enlarged hearts. they're getting a vasconnecrosis of the bones to where they've got to get knee and hip and shoulder replacements and it wasn't real it was one man in his whims and just remember what he was doing he was on a computer he said this on 60 minutes he's just printing out the money just press the buttons and then he would rig and manipulate the markets so he's thinking he's God and the rest of them are thinking they're geniuses

and then inflation hits but if you think you're omnipotent, nay, nothing going to be wrong. Here I am to save the day. Jay Powell is on the way with his little cape. But unbeknownst to him, but known to us,

inflation. And what did they do? Him and yelling and Biden. We think it's nothing. Joe Biden, go look at the video. It's going to go away. That's why Joe Biden's so full of crap about the Putin price hike and all that.

Inflation was around nine months before the Putin attack. That's scumbag. So they did nothing about it while it was going on, said nothing except they came up with the term transitory, while all hell was breaking loose, and the bond market was giving him the middle finger, and they had a stop. so the juices that flowed for the markets were gone. He had to stop, and then he had to start raising rates. But what did he do?

He slow walked it. He had control the markets because he printed all this money, but once you're not doing that, you have no more control, so interest rates on their own went higher and higher and higher, and he slow walked it. And things worsened and worsened and worsened and worsened and worsened and worsened, to the point where you see what's happening in inflation. other reasons for it. No doubt the Russia thing and grains and supply and this and that.

But this was going on before all that because of all the printing of money. So we get a bare market and it worsens and worsens and gross stocks get destroyed and the bubbles are down 90% and everybody's groping for a low and this, that and the other thing. And I'm thinking to myself, everybody's still depending on this guy. Wait a minute. He has no steroids. left. And in fact, because of the things he created, he has to do the opposite of steroids. He's got to put the needle in somebody's arm and pull the steroids out. And guess what that did to markets? No choice. And these people that were complete what we call on Wall Street doves, easy money doves, all of a sudden are the opposite. Up next, we take it to today.

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America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is. just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbub. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, here is what has scared the crap out of me for the last month. You remember my line about Wall Street, right? Nothing's bad as long as the market's going up. You know that, right?

While I'm sitting there warning you about bubbles and interference in free markets with unimaginable amounts of printed money. Wall Street's just, hey, great. Why? Because they're getting crap loads of fees through IPOs and SPACs and this, that, and the other thing. Wealth.

And normally I don't watch... I have Fox Business Network on all day, but it's low because I got to work. And I was, in the last weeks I have recognized and read a lot of people

depending on Jay Powell and I'm thinking to myself wait a minute if you broke your right arm and you went to the doctor and he put a cast on your left arm are you going to go back to him and depend on that person?

No so here's a guy who created massive bubbles that have all crashed inflation, distortions, wealth inequality, bubbles popping everywhere, and I just felt everybody's depending on him. Him. The man who's been wrong 100%, which fast forward us to another Fed meeting and Fed press conference. We already knew they were going to raise rates three-quarters of point today. They raised the, what are we, three and three quarters four now on Fed funds. So he's finally played catch up. The 10 years at 4.05. So he's just below it. But the two years at

four, six. So he's not there yet. I shut my TV off. I didn't watch him today. I didn't listen to his press conference. I could care less what he said. What I do know is the market rallied up 400 points and finish down 500 points. That's what mattered. It hit 33-071 today at the highs. That would be 924 points higher. So we were up 419 points at one time. I don't really care what he said. I was told he raised rates three quarters of a point and was all over the map with the things he said. The initial reaction was, oh, he's pivoting. You know what a pivot is. Well, that means, well, you know, we've been raising three quarters a point.

We're catching up and we're going to slow it down. And the reason that was said because the market was up. Once the market started getting kicked in the teeth, all of a sudden, everything he said was bad. Remember, Wall Street, as long as the markets. So we're just letting you know this nascent rally hit a big wall. Before today, we've been warning you about the NASDAQ and big tech before today. This has been a Dow rally. We warned you.

What did we say to you yesterday? This is exactly what we said to yesterday. Bullish is when the NASDAQ leads, the S&P is behind, and the Dow lags. In bullish phases, the Dow lags, the NASDAQ leads. in bearish phases, the NASDAQ still leads, but down, and the Dow lags to the downside, but this time the Dow was leading, and that's worrisome. And we also pointed out how bad the big tech was acting, as well as the high beta tech software bombed out stuff that is already down big.

That was a worry coming into today. Well, the Dow finally came in, and they, smack the hell out of the NASDAQ even worse. Now tonight, well, let me just say, market hit a wall today. There's this thing on Wall Street. Whatever the market does on Fed Day, it does the opposite tomorrow.

We'll see, I have no idea what tomorrow brings. All I know is you hit a big gigantic wall. The NASDAQ acts like crap. Big tech acts like crap. We warned you about the big tech. That some of them may be the intels and Cisco's of 1999. We've told you that. And it was just a bad day.

Off of Jay Powell. The Savior. Now, what I will be watching now is to see reactions. I will start because people are going to be pissed now at Jay Powell. What did you do? Elizabeth Warren was out today. You know Elizabeth Warren. She committed fraud to make money and status.

She's a senator. Makes sense. She sent a letter to the Fed that they're killing the economy. No, the Fed isn't killing the economy. The market is. The market's leading the Fed. The Fed killed the economy two years ago, creating the bubbles, and now the bubble's popping. The Fed raising rates right now, ladies and gentlemen, is not killing the economy.

They're just plain catch-up to the real world, the market. You know, the free market. Simple as that. The free market's been speaking. the Fed's been slow walking I've been saying to the Fed's been like Usain Bolt running a race against me the Fed is me

or swimming a race against Michael Phelps the Fed is me so they're finally playing catch up I gather he said something the market didn't like today I don't know it doesn't really matter because when all is said done you know what we're about price and the market hit a wall today

We already knew about the NASDAQ and the big tech. And we'll do our scanning tonight and probably not see great stuff. The S&P, I believe, broke back below the 50-day moving average. After they just getting a teeny weeny above it, the Dow has been the leader. But again, I repeat, and this is a rule. It's not good news when the Dow leads. We told you that yesterday, specifically. They're just rules.

They're rules characteristics of bull and bear markets. They just rules. Based on what? The study of every bull and bear market. In the recent weeks, the NASDAQ was leading, we'd be much happier. But not only did it lag, but lagged woefully, and I got newsfea. I was telling my peeps last night a bunch of these names in bombed out land looks like they're going to break lows

and guess what happened today new yearly lows picked up so the market wrap brought to you by Investment-Dashmottles.com that's Jim Rohrabak one of the great market timers no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators go check it out

Investment dash models.com Dow 505 after being up four and change S&P 96 NASDAX 366 NASDAQ-382 SOX 74 transports 426 advanced declines did not end up good. Just a rough close. And let me repeat, off of Powell.

Let me get my five minutes. At 235 minutes after his, when he started talking, you hit 33071. You dropped 400 points in five minutes, rallied up 400 points in five minutes, and then trouble. And did I have any idea today what the market? market would do? Hell no. Hell no. Tomorrow? Hell no. Big picture? Probable wall today. But leave no doubt, worst area is NASDAQ types. And I'm not so sure that's good news based on rules. As I look to my screens, yakes. Just noticing in retail Costco 16, Dillard's 21, Decker's 16, Lemon 14.

Not so sure those are good numbers. Up next. This, that, and the other thing, and whatever else. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step

closer to your next dream destination. enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

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your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! It's about time. What is the bad news? Well, since he's been wrong 100% of the time, and since he went too far, ridiculously too far to the downside on rates and on the upside of printing money, that created bubbles that have now crashed

with a debt-laden economy, and I mean debt-laden. If the 10-year yield stays, at 4%, but he decides to go 5 or 6% with Fed funds, then he gains control again. But the other way, the other way. So stay tuned. I have no idea. We had a 900 point spread today. we could bounce 300, we can keep going down. I don't know. That's the short term.

That's the trees. That's a one out of ten. The big picture, probably hit a good wall today. The big picture, big tech acts horrid. The big picture, technology acts hard. The big picture, growth tech software, acts hard. And I'm not so sure that's great news. simple as that.

That's the best way I can put it. I suspect Dow holds up best if we continue, as it does. Areas that have been strong oils, they took it in the teeth a little bit today. That got hit. Pullbacks in most everything. Trust back to very, very low.

I've been playing it very close to the vest. And we'll see what tomorrow. brings. Again, there's this little thing that whatever happens on Fed Day, the opposite happens. We'll see what happens tomorrow. I have no clue. I freely tell you that. I have no clue. I wish I had a clue. But these guess the gaps, impossible. I just want to repeat something. We had a 900 point spread today. Oh, by the way, in a matter of hour and 25 minutes. so anything's possible. They can bounce it up tomorrow.

But bigger picture, I'm going to say that I'm going to do a lot of scanning tonight and say, oh, a lot of highs are in now. And I repeat that growth slash tech slash software slash higher beta, not very good at all. And to repeat, that's what leads. in other news, I just got to report to you the nausea. Remember, we did it to the Trump administration when he was in power.

We went after him for his BS. We got to be fair and square. The White House put out a tweet today about how, hey, everybody, your Social Security is going to be up big time this year. We're working hard for you. The reason why Social Security payments are going to be way up this year, because they're attached to inflation. guess what the White House did when everybody ripped them on it? They took down the tweet. How's that?

Nixon, I believe in the 70s, put in something for Social Security to go up with inflation. And guess what? You know how they were checked on it? Twitter. Now that Elon runs Twitter, both sides get checked. Interesting how things work, huh? They removed it. And when asked about it, the press secretary who I would not want her job, turned into Ralph Cramden with the homina, homina, homina.

I really think this president has taken away the championship belt. And I really do at this point, championship belt on lying from the last guy. but the Washington Post who wrote every lie of the last guy and did articles on it say nothing about this guy why what do we tell you about politics they don't care about us they only care about their own team

just remember that that's why we have to do the job that they don't do and we don't pull any punches we have no bias, no agenda, no ulterior motive, just to keep you in good stead, because the minions won't. Anyway, I thought that was cute. Yeah, look what we're doing for your Social Security percentage went up big this year. Yeah.

Welcome to my world. Anyway, crappy day. We'll do double scans tonight. We have an idea what we're going to find. I wish we had better news, but whatever they did or whatever they said today, the market reacted in a very bad way. And tomorrow is another day. Any questions?

Email me at gharicay.com or gulpam at callbomb.com. And again, I'll say it again. Thank you for all your well wishes. Can't begin to tell you what it means. Have a great evening, everybody. Drive carefully. When you get home to like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family.

Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Stay well, be well. And let me do it again. Thank you all. Much appreciated.

Until tomorrow. Peace out. Bye bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.