Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Open wide [12.17.2025]

Episode Date: December 17, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Wednesday, December 17th. It is 2025. Hope you having a good day. Wish I had better news for you. We have lots to cover. Lots of things going down today.

And I mean big time. We really hope you've been listening, specifically on artificial intelligence and technology. We have been warning you about one after the other getting in trouble, worsening and some things happen today that's of note we'll get into that in a minute

in case you don't know this is serious talk on everything that affects you will do the market the economy your job your industry all the Morlocks from DC the president tonight will be speaking I think at 9 o'clock I'm told he's going to tell us what a fabulous job he has done

we'll get into that in a little bit. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post at garykade.com. Also our X feed. If you don't follow us on X, you should. Just put our name in. If you'd like to email us, just be nice. By the way, we'll also post it on our,

what else I post on other podcast apps and the BizTV YouTube channel. So let me start from now. Mike Ron, which has been a very short, strong semiconductor stock, just reported earnings, beat estimates, and guidance is really strong. The stock closed at 225.71, down $7. I have it up $13 in the aftermarket to almost $240, hit a recent high of $265. I have no idea what happens tomorrow, but that can't, Not help.

That's a double negative, right? That can help what happened today. So let me just report to you what happened today. And then we'll talk about the innards. The Dow was only down 228. Yeah. Is that a biggie? I don't think so.

The Dow was down... The S&P, though, was down 1.1%. The NASDAQ 100, though, was down 1.85%. And the NASDAQ was down 1.81%. The SOX was down 3.78%. But I gather will bounce because of Micron tomorrow morning. If Micron continues to be up off of, by the way, gangbuster numbers, they haven't done their conference call, but they have to report on the conference call.

But other things happened. Let's start with Oracle. And this has been one of our big worries. Oracle was down another $10 today to 178, topped out at 345. We've been talking about Oracle a lot. As we tell you, we're very big on asking questions, especially when there's outliers. You know what an outlier is, right?

Something out of the ordinary. And this goes for the good side and the bad side. We're always interested. I see an earnings report. A company misses Wall Street estimates, gives down guidance, and the stock rallies strong. I'm always trying to figure out why. I'm asking questions. But on the other end, we've had Oracle giving out gargantuan numbers. Backlogs up the wazoo. And the stock is crashed. and even more today. And we see their bonds drop. We see the credit default swaps, which is insurance for the bonds, skyrocket.

And then we see other artificial intelligence stocks, at least we're told, being squashed. This is before today. Well, they really got them today. For example, GEV that just GAPed up on a prediction dropped $72 today to

614 F-I-X It's one of those names involved with I guess the heating and ventilation of I guess maybe data centers and things like that Down $85 today

to $883 IESC down 50 bucks Broadcom down another $15 today which has it down almost 80 bucks since the earnings four days ago $80

ASML Holdings one of the equipment guys down 60 today AMD down 10 want me to continue it was carnage today. Caterpillar down 27 in the Dow. And as we have stated, we thought that Caterpillar was now moving on artificial intelligence stuff. Squish-squash. Notwithstanding tomorrow where Micron may or may not help.

In fact, I see in the aftermarket the queues up but two dollars after being down $11 today. I see the SPY up a buck 30. It's down seven to half bucks today. So we'll see what tomorrow brings. We're just letting you know they really squished and squashed

and squash the AI trade again today. And it's not just the AI. It's just a lot of high beta technology. stuff, EME down 28 to 600, AGX down 23 to 296. STRL down 35 to 283. These are all names that I have been told are based on artificial intelligence and the big

buildout of it. We deal in reality here. We deal in realism. Rough day. We'll see what happens tomorrow. What's the story? So Oracle had a $10 billion data center project in Michigan, and I guess there's this company called Blue Owl that was supposed to back it with $10 billion.

They've now backed away. Let me read something to you. Blue Owl came out and said they would not be taken on the $10 billion data center deal. Oracle came out and said they chose to go with someone different. Blackstone stepped in, but the market is perceiving Blue Owls' head. residency is a sign of concern over Oracle's debt. What's the issue? Oracle has $127 billion now of debt. $25 billion of debt is due within three years. They have generated $13 billion in cash flow of the last year, which is great, but with all the debt, they aren't expected to get back to positive free cash flow to $2,028.

This is why their credit default swaps are up 200 percent in the past few months. Bond market is hedging aggressively on if Oracle can't pay back the debt. The only way for them to pay back, that's $500 billion, $500 billion in the need of revenue. RPO, they call it. If they can't generate that revenue, they won't have the cash flow to show they can pay back the debt. As a result, any data center play now falls within the same bucket. The market thinks they're all over leverage, can't pay back the debt,

may not get a return on investments on their cap X, don't deserve a premium. These fears may be misplaced, but it seems to be driving the AI, sell off today. There you have it. And it's not just today. It's not just today. By the way, RPO stands for remaining performance obligation. It's about contracted future revenue not delivered. Up next, we'll continue with this and whatever else. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Hallbaum hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

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That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb Capital Management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.

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Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. Hey, it's Howie Mandel, and I am inviting you to witness history as me and my Howie Do It Gaming Team take on Gilly to King and Wallow 267's million dollars gaming in an epic global gaming league video game showdown. Four rounds, multiple games, one winner,

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. By the way, I forgot to mention if by chance, if by chance,

I win tonight's Powerball lottery which is one and a quarter billion dollars if by chance I win it you all have a great life I'll be either in Tuscany

or maybe in one of those overwater bungalows in Bora Bora I freely admit it I'd be gone that's a lot of cake. I enjoy what I do in life, but that's a lot of cake.

You know what the good news in Florida is? You're allowed to stay anonymous. Not all states can. In Florida, if you open a corporation and designate, you can remain anonymous, and that would be me,

so you would never know it. But if I'm gone, you probably could understand. Anyway, only put up what you can afford because the lottery is a scam. It's a con. You do know that. I only get involved when it's above like 400 million. Like, it would be terrible if I want a $200 million one. It's one of the greatest cons on the American people because it feeds on people that are

not wealthy and are in need. And they use marketing like, you never know. Yeah, you do. Yeah, you do. And they made it tougher to win throughout the years. And I believe Powerball, you pay $2 now per ticket. Mega millions is five per ticket. They really hate you.

But I play when it gets big. I'm a hypocrite. I admit it. Anyway, that's our little lottery story. And I don't need that much money. I don't need a lot to be happy. But I probably, you know, put the feet up and say, screw it. And that is all.

So that's that area. And let me repeat, good reaction on Micron, though Micron is really tied to something called DRAM prices. and they've gone vertical, and I can promise you, they ain't going to stay vertical. So that's going to be watched also. Tomorrow be an interesting day. I'm gathering they'll bounce things up in the morning off of Micron. If Micron stays up, and let's see if they are able to hold a bounce,

because I got news for you. today they kicked the snot. I can say that, right? Out of the nose on many. Remember Tesla broke out yesterday? Tesla broke out. That was me yesterday. I was down $21 today.

And do you know why? They just kicked the teeth of the higher beta stocks today. And Tesla being one of them. So everything artificial intelligence, construction energy data center, just kicked. But they also got software security crouched right down another 18 bucks. They're also really coming after the froth. You were warned. You may thank me.

and a lot of them are down 50 to 70. We told you they were all going to go back where they came from. We did not know the timing. It just happened to be recently. Where it ends, we don't know. But as we always tell you, if companies have no sales and they continue to have no sales, they all go back to where they came from. Simple as that.

Crypto, not a good day. And I got to tell you, early in the day, they rammed crypto to the upside. and he sold it right back down, right back down. So some things that we have warned you about, notwithstanding we'll see tomorrow, but coming to fruition. Coming to fruition. But money flows elsewhere.

The hotels are acting just fine. They looked like they were going to break out. They came straight down. They v-shaped back up there near the high. The cruise lines acting okay. Most transport's acting okay. Steel acting okay. Gold's okay. Silver is insane. Better tone in some of the metals in mind like coal. Platinum is at a new yearly high palladium. Have I thrilled you yet? The banks. No real problem with the banks. Some pullbacks. Some hold it. The regional's not bad. Other financials decent, though I'm starting to see some other financials getting hit. Insurance, much better. So money definitely flowing.

Oil's got hit hard yesterday. Bounce today, but I'd avoid. Oil prices that were down big yesterday were up big today. You know what the story is. It went from yesterday that Russian, Ukraine, or close to today, maybe not. so close. But also tonight, the president's speaking. And there's all kinds of rumors. Somebody came out and said, we're going to attack Venezuela. I don't know. We'll see. Somebody also said the president tonight's going to tell you how great the year is. Well, I have a little message

for the good man. As you know, we have no bias, no agenda, no ulterior motive. We only care about policy. That's all we care about is policy. We don't see people in the White House. We see policy. And it makes some people mad, but we don't care. We don't care. And the problem this administration has is they're overpromising and they continued overpromise. Just remember when they came in, they said this would be done in the month. They said they were going to cut the deficits. They didn't. They said they were going to cut spending, they didn't. They did a little doge but never followed through.

We're still going to have massive deficits. We're told now it will be lower than expected. We'll take anything. But then there's the rest. Affordability's a hoax. No, you better get rid of those words. You better get rid of those words. You'll lose the election on those words.

Golden Age? Up next we'll talk about the Golden Age. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.

And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code. Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next

dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the

next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So I'm told tonight that they're going to tell you how great things are. Let me tell you the facts. The job market stinks. It's not good at all. It's not depression.

you can use a word maybe very soft. I don't know about recession, but it's not good at all. And as you know, I'm in the big belief. There's a couple of things going on. I do think artificial intelligence matters, I think, but I think a lot of it's the tariffs. We warned you months ago that there's no way companies can plan on hiring or firing or expanding or contracting

when they don't know what the hell their expenses are going to be because the president changes the tariffs every other day and that's what he was doing. The good news is recently much less so. In fact, I don't think I've heard him talk tariffs. Well, I take it back. Five days ago, I believe he was on TV saying tariffs, the most beautiful word in the dictionary.

I wanted to vomit. Makes no sense. I'm a tax-cutting president, but I love tariffs. That's like saying, I'm a tax-cutting president, but I love hiking taxes. Huh? Anyway, as you know, I've told you this before. Taught my kids, don't lie. because if you lie

eventually you're going to have to cover up for the lie and eventually you may have to lie again for that lie and eventually somebody's going to find out and eventually you can end up with a reputation of lying and anything you say people are going to be what checking it out that's why I check out anything any politician says because they're all full of crap

but there are other things you teach your kids. A, you better treat the person who cleans the toilet as well as the CEO that's in that building because if the toilets get stopped up, you are S-O-L. Another thing is never over-promise because then you end up under-delivering. And when you promise something down the road, I'm not so sure they're going to believe you. And this administration is the over-promising kings of the world that needs to stop. Again, I wish I had the ear.

I could help them out big time. They keep saying they're going to be lowering costs, but then you can't. Just so you know what inflation is. When Wall Street and you hear about inflation, that is the rate of inflation. It is not about prices. It's the rate of inflation up or down. Prices that have already gone up, stay up and keep going up. Now, of course, with commodities, hey, if you have a good weather in Florida and you produce a lot of oranges, orange juice prices could come down.

Then the president put tariffs on coffee. Guess what happened to coffee prices? They went up. He took the tariffs off. But I got news for you. Go into the supermarket. Beef to the moon. And of course, the issue is the herd of cows.

Not so big. Need more cows. But then the president says we're going to import more cows from Argentina. Pisses off the farmers here. What's that called? Vicious cycle. no win situation. And then you go, when you have a chance, go into the potato chips aisle and go look at the size of the regular bags.

They're now a little bit bigger than the small bags, but you're paying the same price. Go look at the party bags, the size of the old big bags. You know, there's small, size, party. It's all changed. It's a nightmare. Coffee. There's a certain brand that I buy for my wife. G-E-V-A-L-I-A, I think it was.

I only wait till they do two for one. And they do that every three weeks, and then I stock up. It's $12.99 for each one now. I can tell you it was $899 a year ago. And the list goes on and on and on, but the president keeps telling everybody, I'm the affordability president, but then he tells everybody it's a hoax. And then he says, I'm going to do, you can't. Overpromising.

And that's how you lose elections. He should stick to number one, greatness on the border. number two, deportations, but fix that up because he's losing the Latino vote big time. You can't deport a 75-year-old man that's been here 60 years since he's a kid and has lit a very good life. In other words, you're a yutz if you deport that man. I don't care what anybody thinks. But he's illegal. Kiss mine.

It's called humanity. I bet you get a little hate on that, but I don't care. So we'll see what happens tonight. I don't know if there's something going to come down on Venezuela, so I don't know if you know, but we're getting tough on them. And you know what? I don't mind getting tough on Maduro. He's really not the guy running the show.

He lost the election big time. He's a thug. I wouldn't mind him out and putting some capitalist in there or have a capitalist win, an election, but I don't want Trump running the show there if in fact the guy gets removed. Trump one said he has no interest in interfering in other countries and I'm not a nation builder.

Well, looks like that's not true either. So there's a lot going on, a lot of noise, and we're just here to let you know in many areas of the market, ice is getting thinner, especially tech, but money has been flowing elsewhere, and we'll keep you advised on that. And today was just plain brutal, brutal day for the growth arena in every way, shape, or form. We'll let you know if that changes. But this is a continuation of what we've been seeing. Oh, by the way, the Senate passed a $900 billion defense bill today.

Just let you know. In the year 2000, I think we spent $300 billion on defense. Yeah, I think that's about right. $900 billion on defense. And as you know, I think the number one job of leaders of a country is to defend the citizenry. But $900 billion per year? I bet I can save $100 billion and still be fine. Just my thought.

900 bill. Go look at every other country spends on the fence and report back to me. Wait to you see how much we spend on the fence versus everybody else. It's stunning. Ladies and gentlemen. quite stunning. I'm just looking right now, anything else. With Micron up, Western Digital's up a little bit, Seagate's up a little bit, sandisk up a little bit, but still not a lot of movement, which takes me to NVIDIA. Well, we've warned you. NVIDia's on the ledge. You do not want it to break down from

right here. Just letting you know. We're pretty good at pattern recognition, and that is one icky, pattern that is losing relative strength and don't know why don't care we read the tape hey up next this that and the other thing and whatever else I'm Gary this the one only investors edge guys it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast. might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge.

With Gary Culper. You know, in the news, let me tell you what's happening out there. other parts of everything. It is now coming out on the Bondi beach that the police, many of them stood down and coward. Boy, there better be an investigation on that. I've been reading up a lot about the people running Australia and stuff and how they have allowed anti-Semitism and hate and threats of life in the streets. They say maybe they'll get tough now. The UK Manchester has announced they are no longer going to let anybody yell out death to Jews and all that crap, that they will now be arrested. I'm thinking to myself, you weren't arresting people before saying death that they want to kill Jews?

Really? Really? A Jew was attacked in New York City yesterday by somebody, yelling, can't say it on here. He'll be arrested. Will he be let out quickly? These are all my little questions. You know where we stand on racism of any kind, any race creed or color. but between the colleges and big cities, the allowing of. And we're now finding out that the two perpetrators of Bondi Beach were at these other get-togethers yelling death to Jews.

Well, their death to Jew yelling, they meant it, obviously, right? By the way, it was a father-son. that must be one hell of a talk over at the dinner table. Must be quite interesting at the dinner table. It's all heartbreaking. It's all heartbreaking. Racism against any race, creed, color, gender denomination, I don't get.

Never understood. But somehow it's out there, and I don't know where it's going to take us. but we'll fight the good fight, but we're just one person. I really believe most people are not, and unfortunately, the bad, are very loud. If I was the President of the United States

or the governor of a state and somebody's in the streets threatening death, I'll find a way to arrest them and indict them and try them. and put him away and then market that I put him away. That may be the next person that's thinking about it doesn't. Back on the markets. Look how we segue by the way.

Micron just dropped back about seven bucks. That's not great news. So they announced huge gargantuan amazing earnings and it is still up in the aftermarket, but it's only about 3.5%. We'll take anything after today. My message to you is what we have said to you. We own no individual technology stocks,

and they're being slaughtered now. You have some very important names in bear markets. Some brutal bear markets. They are a voids. A warning shot from me to you is being. careful of what you hear. I saw somebody on TV today. I wrote down what they said. This person has been bullish on Corwee from 187 to 65. I quote, investors just don't understand. Did you hear that? Investors just don't understand. That is what is known in my world as denial of facts. And as we tell you, it's not the news. It's how the market acts on the news and reacts to the news.

And it is pattern recognition and outcome. And when in bare markets, surprises will happen to the downside. And I must tell you, that was one heck of a downside today in the tech arena. A lot of 5 to 10 percenters. I'm looking through my movers. And let me just state for the record. Ew. Ew.

ASML 6 percent, Palantir 6 percent. Oracle 5 percent. AMD 5 percent. Tesla 4 percent. Caterpillar 4 and a half percent. Ew. And those are big caps. A lot of smaller caps in the

teeth. Typically, we're supposed to get bullish seasonality in the market. I ain't seeing it. Just in the areas I mentioned earlier. So be careful, tough sledding. And may I state for the record, January couldn't get very interesting. You'll have a good evening. Drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. It's simple. Make sure you hug your family and hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Until tomorrow, peace out all.

Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero-chafe thanks to four times more.

stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.