Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - over-promising [12.18.2025]

Episode Date: December 18, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day. Thanks for being with us today.

Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's December 18th. It's Thursday. It's 2025. Hope you're having a good day. As you know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll cover the markets, the economy.

job your industry, the Morlocks in D.C., the president's speech last night, and anything they do that I think matters to us, we shall cover because it's just getting worse and worse. The government intrusion into our lives, whether a Republican or Democrat, they don't leave us the hell alone. They do not listen to my motto of secure the border, fight crime, lower taxes, get rid of onerous regulations, and then goodbye. Instead, you know. Hey, if you don't get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

We'll also post it on our X feed. And if you don't follow us and X, you put our name in, you follow us. If you'd like to email us, you just got to be nice. We'll also post it on the YouTube channel of Biz TV and other podcast apps. So, number one, we had a gap to the upside on the market today. Let me start out. They cave out an inflation number. As you know, I have said through the years, I don't trust any government numbers.

Just so you know, over the last two decades, they have changed the formula on GDP to make it higher than it used to be. change the number on inflation to make it lower than it used to be in order to make themselves look better. Well, there are two parts to this inflation number. What I'm seeing, but also it doesn't matter what I'm seeing. The only thing that really does matter is the bond market reaction. Did yields go up or yields go down? The inflation number, I don't believe a word.

They left out all kinds of stuff in the inflation number. It was rigged. I don't believe it. But I don't matter. It doesn't matter what I think. And by the way, there are others that are seeing the same thing I'm seeing. The only thing that matter is the 10-year went from 4.151 to 4.116. yields came down. So whatever the bond markets saw, they liked, I don't matter.

And let's hope yields continue to come down. As I have said to you fundamentally, there is nothing better than oil prices, energy prices, and yields coming down. There's nothing better than that for the consumer. So let's hope that continues. The president's speech. So I always have to preface it as to not piss anybody off. But as you know, we have no bias, no agenda, no ulterior motive. We don't see Donald Trump. We didn't see Joe Biden. We only care about policy. We comment on policy. And we comment on what's said and deeds and all that. And as you know, for almost for whatever the years Biden was there, I'm not so sure we had said anything good about him. I think his initial reaction to October 7th, we said some good things,

and then he was a jackass. Let all the colleges, the Jews get threatened, never said a freaking word, so he can kiss mine. With President Trump, we're half and half. And pretty much, the good half is A plus plus plus, but the bad half is, for lack of a better word, weird. Because if I said to you, hey, I met Novak Djokovic yesterday, and we played tennis, and I beat him 646-4, would you believe that? that, would you believe that? Hell no. Of course not. It's a blatant lie. It's just blatant. Last night's 20 minutes with just a bunch of blatant lies mixed in with some truths. And for somebody like me that is a conservative independent that just wants to be told the truth,

I don't think he earned one vote yesterday. And let me guarantee you that campaign speech last night was to win over voters. Because the poll numbers for him are terrible and they are worried about the midterms. So when you say $18 trillion, not true. When you say you're going to lower prices 500%. Well, that's impossible and somebody needs to speak to him. When you say inflation has been lowered, not true. If you say oil prices are down, true.

But inflation isn't lowered. Prices are still up. And you can go back and see. And then the other part of the equation, man, he just didn't sound. And the other part, isn't there a moratorium on how many months you blame the last, especially when you said, oh, it would take me a daze to fix. We're rooting for him. We have to root for him.

But we are rooting for him. But boy, oh boy, I believe that was a wasted opportunity. Wasted 20 minutes. And a lot of BS. And by the way, do you know how I know that also? my friends that are so big-time MAGA, big-time MAGA, are exhausted already. I have one friend, he is MAGA to the 10th power. He's had enough.

I just wish somebody. It should be me. If he would listen, I can set this whole thing straight. And the last part, the continual overpromising. What do we tell you about overpromising and under-delivering, especially out of Washington, D.C.? The over-promising and the overstatements, they're going to need to fix that up. They are out there today saying how great 26 is going to be and we're going to have 5% GDP. I hope we do.

But guess what? 5% GDP. If 3.5 of it is because of government spending, sorry, can't help you. So we're rooting for him. But a wasted 20-minute opportunity, just a manic campaign speech with a lot of untruths. Unfortunately, I can help him. He wouldn't listen to me. I could help him.

and unfortunately he had his people out today. Oh, what a great speech. You know who his friends are? Me. The ones that tell the truth and critique. You know who aren't his friends? The ones that tell him how wonderful and perfect and everything he does is fantastic. That's our take on the over-promise speech and the overdone last night.

And again, our belief this inflation number that came out today, boy, that ain't right. But we hope it is. But more importantly, we don't matter. The bond market performed today. And if the bond market continues to perform terrific. Terrific. Which has a segueing to the market. Last night, Micron, MU, gargantuan numbers.

and even bigger guidance going forward. It had all the pundits come out saying, you see, told you so, the artificial intelligence trade is just fine. Everything's going to be fine. Everything this, everything that. And you know, we have to tell you. No, it's not fine.

A bunch of stocks have already been trashed and crashed, but we'll watch the rest. and let's hope there'll be good winners coming out of it, we're all for it. Remember, we want markets going up, we do not want them going down, markets going down sucks. Up next, we'll talk about that reaction,

where we finished, and all that other stuff. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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The number to call is 888-4-22-5-59. That's 8-8-8-4-2-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,

and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X. card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit

for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your

show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, in about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.

You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. last bastion of quality programming with Gary Coltbaum it doesn't get better than this so let me do a little finishing up and again if I had the president's ear he announced last night that there's going to be checks for $1776 for 1.5 million troops terrific he said it is coming from the tariffs. And you know what we find out today?

It was already appropriated as housing expenses, rent, mortgage, and utilities. It's nothing new. It's not an announcement. But the president came, like he came up with something. It was done months ago,

as they took it out of the, quietly, out of the housing allowance, fun. And I'm thinking, doesn't he know this is all going to be found out? And does he even care? How about just saying, hey, let you know? Anyway, just another thing that, enough, you've done a lot of really good things that you don't have to embellish. But he won't listen to me. I'll probably never meet him. I don't know what to tell you. I really don't. Okay, now we're done. Micron, let's pick a part, announce gargantuan numbers.

They are a semiconductor company involved in something called dynamic random access chips or DRAMs, memory chips. The stock has been very strong off of pricing that has gone vertical. And what has done is had sales soaring, earning soaring, and they just made this Gargantuan announcement. So today, the stock closed yesterday at 225 and within the first bar today's 262. Nice. 37 bucks.

Closed only up 23. So they sold into it, and that's not a big deal. But what it did, it really lifted up. a very, very troubled market for tech and artificial intelligence. So the NASDAQ finished up 313 today. That's great. It was up at one time, 460, but still good. Got back a lot.

Yesterday I think we were down, what, 400 and something, so got back a bunch of that. Not thrilled with the finish, but we'll take it. The NASDAQ 100 finished up 371. We'll take it. Are we out of the woods? I'm not so sure. So let me explain. You know our little 100 stock example.

Imagine you have 100 stocks, and that's the whole market, and assume we know what an uptrend is, and 100 stocks are in an uptrend. Well, you're markets in an uptrend. Let's say they're all equal weighted. But then 25 of them stop going up and actually start going down. So you have 75 going up, 25 down. So it's a little bit tougher for the index.

And what if it goes 50-50? At 50-50, you're pretty much neutral. What if you go 25-75? Well, the market's going down. We're just letting you know, in spite of micron, I've got Lyft and Uber, the software security Palo Alto networks and Z-scale and CrowdStrike, the artificial intelligence names of Circle and Corweave have crashed. The company that's from Japan very much involved SoftBank bludgeoned.

Other what we're told artificial intelligence names like symbol B, E, C-R-D-O-N, NVT, VRT, crushed. Most of them bounced today. But they're now all in rougher shape. Dyer straits. Under resistance. So it gets tougher.

So I'm not so sure we're out of the woods. Name like Celestica, which was leading no longer. Broadcom was up three today, but it's done for now. off of earnings. Maybe they come out with an announcement. Dell croaking. I can go on and on, but you get my point. So I'm not so sure we're out in the woods, but it was a good day. The Dow, though, here's an interesting thing. The Dow today finished up only 65 points, but it hit.

And by the way, we're not making this up. It was up 480. So think about this. The Dow's up 480 points today. And you have the ability to have an unbelievably strong Dow day. And they just sell it off. That is what is known as distribution. And we look in the Dow and see what's going on there.

And nothing was down big, but a bunch of things were down. So I'm not so sure we're out of the woods. I think we probably stay a little bit mushy. but definite help today out of Micron. You had strong Seagate Western Digital because they are part of that realm. Sandisk part of that realm. And a few others. But again, others were not so great.

So we'll give today a good thumbs up with a proviso. Other areas, oils, back to avoid. marijuana, as you know, the drug-fighting president is making marijuana less evil, which irritates the hell out of me, by the way. Be careful. They did a little what we would call sell the news today because even though he came out and changed the class, they have this class number or letter to drugs. he changed the class today and does that make anybody

buy more marijuana it went from a Schedule 1 substance to a Schedule 3 with legitimate medical uses yeah medical uses up next what else in the markets

I'm Gary this is the one only investors edge guys it's no use putting it off the best time for an Underwear refreshes now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One

travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you. by Spreeker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet. here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Colbomb Comes highly recommended You're gonna feel better if you talk to him

By the way I forgot to mention this I am so impressed With our transportation secretary Sean Duffy I think this guy Has game He impresses the heck out of me

You know we've had You know that thing at the D.C. We had the problem with the shutdown. I think he just handles himself so well and really speaks not over your head. I think he's going to go far depending on what he decides to do. His wife is on Fox and Friends. I've been on TV with her a few times a long time ago. I think she's wanted to host on Fox and Friends on the weekend.

And I didn't even know this. They used to be, they started out on TV and on a reality show. I didn't even no idea. I was just reading up his bio. But really impressed with this guy. I think vice president or president could be in his watch him a dogey going forward. Really good. And really good presenting himself.

Good on him. There's some real good cabinet members. They have some others. Anyway. We're hearing a person of interest reportedly identified in the Brown University shooting. Yeah, they got the guy because they got better pictures.

Hopefully this is the guy. Hopefully. Because, I mean, the students. The students, man. and we'll find out what the motive is after the fact. What else? We'd avoid China. We'd continue to avoid all the consumer staples, and I've got to tell you.

One of the things President said is we lowered inflation and stuff like that and afforded, but I just think it's a bad thing to say. Imagine if you're watching him and paycheck. the paycheck and you're going to the store and you got to buy generic to save money and he's telling you how great he's... I got to tell you the supermarket.

As I was going today and I do a lot of the shopping they had a two for one on these bags I think it was Reese's peanut butter cups buy two for one. Buy this for $7.99 and you'll get two of them.

but those same bags used to be $4.99. So I didn't do anything for you. I told you about my wife. She used to this coffee. Used to be $899. It's $12.99. We used to get $2.4.1 at $8.99. You wait for the $2.4.1.

You stock up. They're now $12.99. I speak to the managers there. Forget the beef. And by the way, go to restaurants now to order steaks. Forget about it. get the shrimp. So I think they really got to be careful.

If I'm the press, you know what I'm saying? Hey, here's the story, beef, and here's why it's gone up. Here's what we're going to do to get it down. You actually give them what the recipe is to get it down. Then you're giving somebody hang their hat on. And you tell people, look, not much we can do about orange juice, because if you have a freeze in the winter, there's going to be less,

and prices are going to go up, but we don't have control of that, but let me tell you what we do have control of. That's what you should be doing. Because I got newsfea. There's no way a president can stop food prices. You can't. And sometimes you do something, it affects something else.

The talk of importing meat from, cows from Argentina, Pisses off the farmers here. He ain't going to do that. So, man, I should send them a tape of my show. I could really help him out. Would he listen? What else?

Consumer staples we'd avoid. I have to tell you the medicals have disappointed. They had like a two-week day in the sun. Yeah, that made sense. You get my point. And a lot of them just come right back down. just come right back down. You know what's stronger right now?

The restaurants are coming around. They have been a week, week, week, week, week for a long time. And I guess the last couple of weeks, they came out of their comas and they've been rallying up the right sides. I could tell you, Chipotle is up 20% from the lows. But mind you, is down 48% from the highs. So I'd call those bounces in bare, we'll see.

I noticed Starbucks today was up 5%. Broke above a little range with some volume. Bad numbers, though. Do you know earnings in Starbucks? Minus 23, minus 40, minus 46, and minus 35. But I will tell you this. The new CEO is doing something very smart. He's fixing places up.

In New York City where my apartment is, there's a Starbucks right there, and they fix the place up and you know what? It's busier. They have this thing called Back to Starbucks they're doing and they say it's starting to yield. Saying the simplifying operations

improving the in-store experience including faster service, better staffing and renewed emphasis on coffee quality. Anyway, maybe he's on to something and they're doing it with a lot of them. And remember our complaints about Kmart versus Target and Walmart. It's not that hard sometimes.

Think about your customer. Think about what they'd like. Think about whether you'd go there. And sometimes you get your answer. And Nike's down another two bucks in the aftermarket on their earnings. FedEx in the aftermarket. Up seven bucks. Stock's been acting better.

Beats by 70 cents. raises low end. Good. Speaking of that, I got to tell you. I ordered something from Amazon. Got it the next morning. They are so good. They got game.

And anything I order is cheaper than going to the stores. Man, oh man. They got game. They got smart. And made everybody improve. And by the way, in my neighborhood, there's tons of Amazon vans and trucks every single day. And in my apartment in New York City, 90% of deliveries Amazon, quite amazing.

But stock can't get out of its own way right now. The number one question we're getting is what's wrong with Nvidia and how come it's not doing anything and how come it's down from the highs and how come it's not done anything in six months. I think it's got a $4.2 trillion market cap. And I think they got some serious, serious competition going forward. Remember what we tell you about capitalism? When you are the leader, people coming after you. And you're seeing other companies with their own chips cheaper. We'll see if they're better.

We'll see if they're marketed better. All I can tell you right now, we don't own any Nvidia. it's weak and it better hold that 170 area. That's all I can tell you. If it don't hold the 170 area, we shall be talking. Why? I'm not so sure the semiconductors are going to hold up.

The artificial intelligence play has already been fractured a bit. You got some stocks down 50, 60% that they told you you got to own. if anything changes we'll let you know but man oh man there's been a lot of money lost and your job is not to listen to the tout artist up next other news of the day this is the one only

investors end it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day there's zero chafed thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel. level credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. By the way, I am getting a lot more people agreeing with me on that. inflation report. But I don't care that they agree with me because the bond market reacted well today. And for me, that's all that matters. If the bond market acts well, that's everything as far as I'm concerned. If the bond market goes the wrong way, then we shall talk. Huh. Boy, more and more people. See what you see. Dig it. New yearly highs.

I went through them. Do you know there's a lot of small banks and S&Ls at New Yearly Highs, regional banks? There are. A lot of them are lower priced. A lot of them don't trade, but man, oh man, they have snuck up. They are not at the highs of Silicon Valley Bank event, but on a one-year basis, all sneaking above. I did not find one technology stock at New Yearly highs today. not a 1, which tells me a little bit.

In fact, on the NASDAQ, just so you know, on the NASDAQ today, that was up 450, that finished up 300, there were 195 new yearly lows on the NASDAQ today. Only 100 new yearly highs, and by the way, out of that 100, a lot of nothing. And as I look through the new yearly lows, wow, I-Robot, which is going bankrupt, this latest nightmare of an IPO Fermi, FRMI, F-R-M-I, where I guess something's going on, that they're not going to get something, and that's an AI thing. Didn't that help you out? Aren't I go with the news?

And I'm just looking at the names inside enterprise. I don't need to go through all of them. It's a hundred and ninety five. Mobile Eye Global. Boy, we were touted on that one. Wasn't that some autonomous driving camera solutions, something like that? New Yearly Low. How about Lee Auto? A China-based company. Electric vehicles. New yearly lows. In fact, getting near all-time lows. Not so sure that's all good news. How about something called Mara Holdings, another one of those digital asset thingamabobs that was touted to us.

It's gone from 23 to 9 since October. And then we got the Bitcoin. Here's your segue. So you had a big day on the NASDAQ today and crypto reversed to the downside to finish in the negative today. And I have to tell you, I'm going to give you a couple of numbers. If I-B-I-T takes out 4668, if GBT takes out 64-44, look out,

that would be bare flag breakdowns in Bitcoin. which will invite more selling and see a micro strategy and coin. By the way, micro strategy. May I repeat again? You're welcome. 457 to 158 since July. And the CEO is still going on TV and much ado about nothing. We're just going to keep buying the Bitcoin.

Stunning. I'm wondering, is there a board there? Does the company have a board? Because I got news for you. If I'm on the board, I'm kicking his ass out. But I guess he's like the Elon Musk of micro strategy. Again, if I'm on the board, that guy's gone. You're telling investors everything is just fine.

while your stock is down 65% since July? And what is your strategy? Oh, we're just going to buy more Bitcoin that's going deeper into a bare market. Sorry, your handsome and buffed host does not understand. I don't get it. And we hope you've been listening. We had no idea how bad it would get or how far it would go. We knew that.

because of the leverage. If Bitcoin went down, it would go down more. And Bitcoin since that high is down 69-20-2. How about 27% micro-stratage is down in the 60s? That's all you really need to know. So going into Tamar, eh, good day for the NASDAQ.

NASDAQ 100 but I am considering it a good bounce not so sure I'm going to go further than that the patterns are becoming very wide and loose KLA trades down 50 and up 50 Tesla up 20 down 20 up 20 tight action is the making of bullish markets wide and loose is the making of uh-oh markets and you know what we mean by uh-oh by the way on the marijuana again the story goes that the reclassification is basically is saying we're making marijuana more safe they did stop short of fully legalizing. You can go read about it. Under the U.S. Controlled Substant Act,

the Schedule I drug is high potential for abuse. They're taking it off one. Guess what? It has high potential for abuse. This should not have been done. You all have a great evening. Drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will for better. I promise they will be well. Thanks for joining. go work out. Take care of yourself. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes

or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture

X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.