Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Overdue bounce but... [09.17.2026]

Episode Date: September 17, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you hear, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you were listening. It's September 17th.

It's Thursday. It's 2006. I'm still jet lagged. You know, when we were across the pond, it was six hours later. So at 3 a.m. in the morning, it's actually 9 a.m. for us. And I'm waking up at 2 and 3 and trying to get back to sleep. Welcome to my world. Right now it's 4 o'clock, which means it's 10 p.m. I figure I'll get it all back by this weekend. We'll figure it out. Hey, in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. You know what we're going to do, right? We're going to do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry.

We're going to talk debt and deficits and scams and shams and corruption. And let me say, for the record, so many in D.C. from the top, economically illiterate that absolutely have no idea about economics. What you say? Yeah, I say. Maybe we'll cover that today. or maybe I'll be nice for a day, right? Anyway, if you don't get this radio show in your city,

we'll post at garyk.com, we'll post it our X feed. If you don't follow us an X, just put our name in, follow us. You like to email us, just be nice. Be respectful, we'll be nice and respectful back unless you know the line, unless you like Hamas or a racist

or robbed a bank today or beat somebody. You get the point. So, most important part of the equation today is what we told you could possibly happen. And we're talking interest rate environment. We stated and have been stating there is the potential. If the Fed raises rates, it will lower rates. And of course, when we say something like that, that sounds cockamamie, we have to explain. that the Fed handles the shorter term rates, the Fed funds rates.

It affects your money markets. Remember when Powell went to zero? He gave you the middle finger and screwed every one of you. Every saver got zero on their money markets. I'm not going to say another word on Powell. That would be number one. But when the market feels like the head of the Fed is an inflation fighter, The bond market will tend to be bought because people believe, hey, this guy's for real.

And long-term yields will come down. And when we mean long-term yields, the main one we follow is the 10-year yield because really attached to the mortgages and loads, but also the 30, the 5, the 2, 2 less so. And as you know, yields have been spiking higher because of the absolute unadulterated miscalculation on the war by the, this administration where nobody's been fired and we watched oil prices back into the hundreds again. Now, may I stop for the second and let you know that maybe here we go again, you know, the latest from our president, my president in the United States, this afternoon is that he is going to make a decision real soon on Iran on what he's going to do and whether he's going to annihilate

them and wipe them all. Who the hell knows? Does the guy take one day off? Anyway, so we're in that position where, for the record, if he does something of, let's see, how do I describe it? If he escalates it in a big way, which we don't believe he is. We believe he's full of crap. And I think he gets bored and decides to just say anything. But who knows? If he does that, I'm not so sure that's good news because we think oil can spike even more. That'll affect the market. It'll affect the bond market. So backing away, guess what the bond market did today? Yields went down. So for one day at least The Fed

Raising rates on the short end And saying we mean business about inflation In spite of the president Who by the way came out and ripped the Fed Not Warsh He's he's saying they're political The rest of the Fed Just remember everybody's the enemy

To him You're the enemy, you're the enemy The Supreme Court's the enemy now The whole world's Canada's the enemy Greenland's the enemy. That's a daily thing going on. It's nauseating. But I digress.

The important part of the equation. The Fed raised rates on the short end. The Fed funds. And that sends a message to the bond market that, hey, we ain't screwing around on inflation. So they raise, and by the way, it's not being courageous raising rates a quarter point. It's really not the biggest the deal. message that it sends. So we got the 10 year going from a little over 5% to 4947 down point 59. It may not seem like a lot and it really isn't a lot. And the fact is, as we have stated,

yields are stretched and extended to the upside and every time we get this stretch and extended, they pull back. So maybe that's what's going on. Maybe. You know, we'll see. My point is for a day, our thought process of the potential happened today. Let's hope it continues. Oil prices were down today, but they're off the lows. We'll see what happens. And of course, that's fluid as the president was out there again today with the, I don't know if you call it threats, but he's saying, I've got to make a decision on what?

Decision on what? What are you going to do? Next. So, as we have been saying to on this show, markets are oversold to the downside. Short-term basis. Yields and oil are overbought to the upside short-term basis. And we said to you, if we can get some relief on those two, we should have some sort of rally. The Dow was up 600 pre-market.

600. We were down 600 yesterday. Up 600 pre-market, but we only opened up about 400. We finished up 316, so got back half of the Dow loss yesterday. Yesterday, what did we tell you? Wow, the NASDAQ 100 finished up with the Dow down 600. The NASDAQ wasn't down that much with the Dow down 600. That's a near-term relative strength.

NASDAQ was up 439 today. the NASDAQ 100 was up 500 today. Very nice moves. Very nice. Oh, and as usual, what helped the semiconductors bounce. They've been in bad shape. Up about 3%, I think, 2.5% to 3% on the semis. Tech, as usual, pretty good day with some provisos that I'm going to mention to you in a little bit.

Advanced declines had a good. day finally. New lows still more than new highs though on both indices but of course on a update that'll contract the new lows and maybe some new highs show up and I'll even mention some in a little bit and that's today with a proviso because do you know what we just did in the last 45 minutes here besides watch family feud by the way it's my new favorite show This guy is Steve Harvey. I love this guy. Anyway, we'll watch Family Feud.

We scanned. You ready? The transports, the housing, the airlines, the cruise lines, the hotels, the biotech, the retail, the commodities, the consumer staples, the insurance, the restaurants, the economically sensitive, all the financials, all the semiconductors, all the artificial intelligence stocks. Oh, and all the Dow stocks. And may I state for the record, this is what I told my peeps. Tonight, all we're going to do is show you the good stuff. We'll take five minutes. If we showed you the charts that are in bad shape, probably take an hour or two.

That's the problem right now. With all the bad advance decline days, it really wrecked the patterns of individual stock. and sectors. Now we're not saying some sort of bottom isn't at hand here, maybe the bottom, but we're going to need some work, some backing and filling, some repairing, because I got news for the higher oil and the high yields has messed, messed up the travel stocks, retail, which by the way, retail bounced a little bit today. And as we've told you, there's two or three retail stocks in shape, Best Buy, Target, Abercrombian, Fitch, those are the three right now. Up next, we'll expound more.

This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income,

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Investment Advisory Services offered through Coltbaum Capital Management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

And what once again to Investors Edge? Thanks for being with us today. For four years, we ripped the stuffings out of Joe Biden. We have done about 75% ripping the president of Trump and 25% profusely complimenting him on a bunch of things he's done right. But I must tell you, for somebody that's a billionaire, supposedly a genius in real estate, he don't have a clue about the interest rate environment,

has no clue about trade. He has zero clue about trade. He thinks trade deficits. We're losing money. It's insanity. In case you don't know, we have a trade deficit with another country because we buy a lot more crap from them than they buy from us because we're bigger. He says that if we stop that, we make all that money back.

There's no money lost. Why? Because we're buying things. We're buying things and we're gaining the asset that. we are buying economically illiterate it's the best way and I tell them too he probably have the IRS audit me but I tell him what what that where you coming from and by the way the Republicans are ripping them on social media on all these things it's amazing to watch he's actually thinking that we'll lose all kinds of money on

trade deficits unbelievable the insanity of it Anyway, back on form. We'll even be the rest of the show. Because we do hope he does great things. Seriously. And he does have great golf courses. As I stated to you, we just, and just so you know, I can, I got fast fingers. I have a stock system, chart system where I can press a button and they just run one after the other, one after the other.

but what I'd rather do is just start punching in the symbols. And I know it by heart at this point in time. I pretty much in 30 minutes went through 1,500 stocks. Not kidding. And I got a very good feel and all I can tell you is what I do during that time. I can write down very quickly, okay, this is in good shape. Okay, that's in good shape. Oh, that's not.

And by the way, it was easy because I'd have to write down too many names. So we're just letting you know, had a good day today. I'm not going to complain. As we have told you, you know where we're sitting? We have the big indices ETFs right now because we're too scared of anything individual. And I can promise you, I would have stopped out of 100 stocks in the last four months. And the fact that they had a good day today, I'm a happy guy. Still going no place fast, they're range bound, but we'll take an up day.

But when we did this scan, and I'm running through the restaurants and seeing they've been bombed out, and today one of the leaders, Breaker International, worsened down 11 bucks today. No good. And then I go through the rails and the truckers. Oh, you know what? They blasted today. And I still don't see any news because it's almost like every day there's something new. The market's blasting something.

they blasted the auto dealerships today. Auto Nation. Oh, here we go. It came out. Auto Nation and other auto dealership stocks tumble after a Fed rate hike. The Federal Reserve raises benchmark rate by a quarter point. Yes, they're potentially making finance vehicle purchases more expensive and increasing dealers' inventory financing course. A quarter point? I'm not so sure of that, but okay, if that's the reason, that's the reason. And the bottom line is they crushed auto nation down 20 bucks today, 174.

Lithium Motors down 17 to 321. So just another area getting bombarded. And then I went through the consumer staples. And then I went through retail. And by the way, don't dare look at Nike. And then I looked at restaurants and don't dare look at McDonald's. And then I went through the insurance stocks. They've been blasting them recently.

And they were actually holding up pretty good. and then the semiconductors had a very good day today, up 353 on the socks, like 3%. Let's call it three, maybe 3-2 or 2-8, who knows. I'm not even going to look. And in my semiconductor list, I have one stock that was down today, Texas Instruments. But then I ram through all the semiconductors.

You ready for this? AMD in a big range bound but one of the best names. Micron, I believe just back above the 50 day, but just range bound. Nvidia amazingly just all over the map. I'm not even going to give it an okay. I'm just going to say it's hanging in there. Intel moved above a little first range above the 50 day today. Okay.

Taiwan semi sitting around the 50 day and hanging in there. and that's where it ends. Every other semiconductor stock is in different levels of bearish phase, bearish market, bare market, whatever you want to call it, with some names, way, way down. And then I did the artificial intelligence stocks. They look horrible. Well, first off, as you know, they got creamed on Monday. Yesterday they had relative strength, as I stated.

And today, the NASDAQ was up 439 and the NASDAQ 100 was 5.000. And you know what I saw? I saw something like Jable Circuit open up strong and finish down. I saw, let's see, Caterpillar was up like 30 and finish up 15. It's still nice to see up 15. CoreWeave was down three and a half bucks. I believe CN and Coherer up 15 or 20 finished up three and six. Light, it's one of my favorite names, relative strength-wise, down 25 bucks today.

So, for the record, as I said to my peeps, I can spend five minutes tonight on what looks good and acts well and is in shape. And if I did the opposite, it'd probably be an hour or two. Other areas that are, there's some decent stocks in the medical, but narrow, but some pretty, alumina. Moderna looks like it may have another leg up. Johnson and Johnson and Merck, they act okay. Actually, Merck gapped up on the Moderna news. So there's some medical. The refiners, the big refiners in oil.

MPC, PSX, VLO, very strong. Mike Ron and Sandus bounced off the 50 day-to-day on a gap. Dell remains the number one stock. Good day today. SpaceX, almost broke above a little range. today close just below there's not that many more I can even mention to you that's the problem right now may take some time up next what else we be seeing thanks to being here this is the one only investors edge we're listening to America is talking investors edge

he's got to be pleased with that the crowd is just on his feet here he's a Cinderella boy with Gary Coltbaum comes highly recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Here's some more strength. The software security opened down today, but CrowdStrike finished up three or four bucks. Other software names, Twilio up seven, Snowflake Up Seven, Rebounding, Octa up two. I think that may be a new high. Net up nine today.

Fortinette, another one. So that area. A narrow list of names, but some. good action there. I can also, you know, mention a few dozen software stocks that look like crap, but hey, there's some sore thumbs in that group. In the Dow, Apple nearing new highs again after gapping down. Salesforce.com software pulling back right now, but just got extended. Johnson and Johnson acts okay Actually acts pretty decent

Merck acts pretty decent Microsoft needs to get above 515 But it's had a good move off the lows And Vidiya I'm not going to say it's bad I'm not going to say it's good And Travelers

One of the stronger insurance stocks And Visa's been better But starting to get in a little bit of trouble And that's it for your Dow as far as decent to better. And the rest, ick. And don't get me started again on Nike, which I'm amazed they keep in the Dow.

I'll bet any of you that, let's see, by the end of the year, Nike's out of the Dow. I'll bet any of you. Disney, no, they won't take that out, unless it gets hit from here. And that's big, well, Nike's a big brand name thing too. I've been in a couple of Nike stores. Not great.

And remember, we don't speak to management. We speak to people that are on the floor and not great. And remember, who's the one that was telling you? We visited some Lulu Lemons and they were telling me at much higher price. Not good. That's what we do sometimes at retail. Our best thing we ever did for you guys was the Kmart versus Walmart and Target routine we did years ago.

Years ago when Kmart was trading, we would come on the show and say, okay, so we just want to let you know last night we went to Kmart. There was no help. Some of the shells were empty. It was dirty there. And then we went to Target.

It was bright and shelves were full. And it was all red and, you know, they got the red there. And then we went to Walmart. I don't know if they still have the greeters now, but there was a greeter there and the place was busy. Kmart went out of business.

Duh. That's how it works sometimes. And we do the same with restaurants. You can go visit these places. You get a good feel. Very easy to take your time and go check things out. I still remember, what year was it? Was it like 91 or 92?

The story goes that Barron's Magazine, it's a weekly that comes out on the weekend, did a front cover about Outback and how they were bearish on it, Outback Steakhouse, because people weren't going to be eating meat anymore. That was the big story. And all I know, I was living in Boca Raton at the time, and there was an Outback Steakhouse they opened on this street, not a big main thoroughfare, but this street,

Southwest 18th Street in Boca Raton, and Outback was in a strip shopping center, A strip shopping center. Two hour waits on a Wednesday. And guess what Outback Steakhouse did in the next couple of years? Skyrocketed. So we do a little bit of that. And dang, Nike, Lulu Lemon.

I'm interested in finding out what's going on with Burlington now is that stock just crashed. And Boot Barn, that stock just crashed. Let me add a lot of retail. stocks have crashed. And I also want to know what's going on with Best Buy that it's in a new yearly high. And I say that because Best Buy, what was last quarter's numbers on Best Buy? Revenue was only up 2%. But earnings were better. So obviously they're doing better with their inventory and selling things with better margins. I like going to Best Buy, by the way. I think it's a cool store. Good mix. I think they're pretty smart there. And of course, then there's the Costco.

Wow. I don't know how they do it. By the way, Costco makes, I don't know what the percentage, but I know it's near 100% of their profits on what you pay them to be a member. Their margins are so small on the bulk things that they sell. They're geniuses, though. Sam's Club owned by Walmart. Geniuses. BJ's geniuses. You know how tough that is? My father was a retail genius. He was in retail all his life.

And I don't know how these companies do it. But they're good. And same goes for supermarkets, by the way. They work on what? One to three percent margins. I don't know how you do that. Anyway, that's a little bit on the retail front. And again, I think I have three or four retail stocks that are in shape and a bunch of

of them are just in shambles. In shambles. And don't get me started with Canada Goose. I guess paying thousand bucks for winter coats or whatever finally got to them. That's not, they lost, losing money this quarter? That's the estimate. In case you don't know, Canada Goose stock has gone from 77 in 2019 to 7. Geez, got to stay on top of things, kids.

Got to stay on top of things. Anything else going on? I think the important thing is we got past the Fed for a big change, your handsome and buffed toast really likes this Fedhead. We think it took guts. Guts. I don't know if the words take on the president because you knew the president was going to come at them, but they meant business and it was 12-0 on the raid hike and the good news is the good news is yields came down today

but we'll need to see more I'd like to see the 10-year back at four and a half and if they go higher from here all bets are off if they go higher now I do want to let you know something which is not the biggest a deal to me because I'm not into seasonality too much. Just let you know supposedly the last two weeks of September the worst two weeks of the year. Not today though. I guess the next last two weeks start Monday, right? Lenore reported earnings. They were not good.

You ready for Lenore? Let me see if I can find the numbers. Revenue was down 9%. earnings were down 48%. Dang. And by the way, that's a very well-run company. Housing business is very

tough right now. Very, very tough. And just so you know, the people that run Lenore, some of the most brilliant people in the arena. But, tough business. And by the way,

they guided down for this coming quarter. softer orders. That's what they're saying. They're deliberately prioritizing volume over margin. They're accepting lower margins to maintain sales pace. They see eventual affordability relief, but we don't know what eventual is. Resale competition is intensifying. You're damn straight it is.

In case you don't know, highest inventory of housing in history currently, right? now in the United States and Lenar cut delivery outlook also ouch all right but stock was up today why yields were down and the stock's been brutally beaten up brutally and by the way that's another thing we've been doing daily just going online and going through for a few cities and see what's going on as far as inventory and pricing up next this that the other thing, whatever else. This is the one only Investor's Edge. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Thanks of being with us today. So, this coming November is going to be vitally important. we have an election.

And in case you do not know, I'm no fan of this administration or this Republican Party. In fact, I'm downright. I've had enough of them. But I have never seen a more illogical party in my life than the people on the left right now. Just some weird, just weird, weird stuff. And I'm not even talking about the extreme. idiots in the party. I'm always looking for logical moderates in both parties, and I think we've lost all of them.

They either were drummed out because of Trump, because Trump is big in the primaries. Let me tell you what's going on right now, and the things we have predicted for you are coming into fruition. Number one, we told you the independents are just running for the hills from the Republican party. Independents that were told no wars, no inflation, no corruption, balance budgets, or at least try. list goes on and on of complete unforced errors or just they suck the Republican Party right now. But you know what the other thing was we told you?

The reason why Trump won was because of independence and the Hispanic vote. What an unbelievable Miami, Dade County. Well, what did we tell you about the Hispanic vote and the DHSPatic vote? and the deportation mistakes that they have made. Not the closing of the border. The Hispanics love the closing of the border, believe it or not. But the stories are coming out every day of, oh, a 70-year-old man who's been here for 35 years and living a good life and he's got wife and kids and grandkids and pays taxes.

And he's just being picked up on the street and sent to a country he's never been to before. And nobody can hear from them. You can decide for yourself whether you think that's right or wrong. Because I know people that say every illegal should be out of here. Whatever. But we're talking elections right now. And the Hispanics are up in arm. And guess what came out today?

And we predicted this. A House Republican from Florida, Maria Salazar took direct aim at the the president and his immigration crack down. You know why she did that? Because we told you what was happening and they're realizing it. So just let you know the house is gone. We're going to have a Democratic house, which means in case you don't know, they get the committees. They're going impeach Trump. You can't get rid of them though because you need two thirds, but they're going to do that. They're going to investigate his whole family. They're going to subpoena every one of his families. they're going to go through the litany of things

and you're going to see the taking of the fifth for two years or better yet Trump's going to pardon everybody which is probably the best move at that point but I think the Senate I've been reading the Senate now I got news for you

there may be a Democratic senator in Texas because they put up this corrupt ass clown Paxon against the guy who can actually speak the Democrats may have both and you know what that means they're going to have a big edge in 28 and you know what that means

we may have I can't even imagine what they're going to be thinking about in 28 go watch them go look at their thoughts just remember what Biden did on purpose just open the border wide open

pick them up put them on airplanes to three in the morning and just sent them to different cities who those cities had to pick up the cost of all that in New York City hotels were shut down to bring them in and if you want to know why we're bringing this up

it has everything to do with you the market your money your job, your industry, and all that crap. So I'm just letting you know what's going on right now, and we're getting closer. And when I go to the gas station, by the way, I've been visiting gas stations every day, just taking a look.

People are pissed. MAGA people are pissed. I think what, we got 40-some-odd days left? Well, we'll see how that goes. Anyway, just giving you heads up on the things we been telling you. And unfortunately, it's going to, Saturday Night Live is going to have a lot of skits. Let me put it that way. Anyway, the good news, very good day today, bad news, the internals need work. What I'm hoping for now, pullbacks controlled, rotational, and further stair steps to the

upside, but we're going to need work. And I will tell you flat out, we're going to need oil prices to come down and yields to come down even more. And more importantly, let's hope they stop going up because they have been persistently going up and that is a pain in the you know what for you, the markets, your money, your job, your industry and the decision makers in this great country of ours. Tomorrow will be another day. I hope you're appreciating the fact that we are pulling no punches. We go after all that continue to intervene in our lives in ways we never imagined.

And 40 trillion of debt never imagined. Two trillion dollar yearly deficits never imagine. And none of them give a crap. None of them give a crap. They're laughing at us. Wish I had better things to report, kids. Really do. but we deal in facts here.

We deal in numbers. We deal in the fact that we're doing great things. Not sure about them. Have a great evening. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I promise. Stay well. Be well. Peace out. All. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.

To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Gary K. com. That's GaryK dot com.