Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - OVERSOLD BOUNCE [03.12.2025]

Episode Date: March 12, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com, CodeCompert. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum. I'm your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is March 12th. It's Wednesday. It's still 2025. Hope you're having a good day. As always,

serious talk on everything that affects you, the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, the doge, the doge, the new administration, the old administration, debt and deficits and scams and shams and corruption and inflation and whatever else comes to mind. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. You know, we once had 90,000 followers. And overnight we went to 30,000 when they shut me down.

This is before Elon, when I said on X or when it was Twitter, that Bernie Sanders' economic policy was communistic. Somebody complained, they shut me down for a day. When I brought back up, I lost 60,000 followers. No, not kidding. and they never came back. And I never market it. So what can I tell you? We have it.

We have. I think we have 35,000, which is not bad. But I'm not Beyonce. All right. Today on the show, things that matter. Everything that matters. Let's go markets. So yesterday, we had this situation where the Dow was down,

was about 480, but the NASDAQ was only down like 30. So definitive relative strength. The Dow today was down another 82. The NASDAQ was up 212. So in the last two days, I'm going to give approximate. The Dow's down like 560 points. The NASDAQ up is 180. So the money flows for the last two days are going into the bombed out, blown up, destroyed technology, artificial intelligence, software technology arena. I consider it a bounce. I'm not sure I can go further than that. I would love to. And what do we mean by a bounce? It's pretty simple. simplistic. Let me take a few. Meta, Facebook, drops from $741 to the close on Monday of $598. It's rallied up 20 points. Still down 120. That's what we mean. Simple as that. Not so sure I need to go.

further. But we'll give other examples because Invidia today had a good day. It was up seven bucks to 115 and three quarters. It was 143.44 about two and a half weeks ago. That's what we mean by a big drop and a bounce. I suspect the bounce is not going to last long. What we have been taught throughout the years is when you have a bounce after a big drop, you get these thing called an ABC. A is the down move. A B is a rally up. The C is a retest. And we'll know a lot more on the retest on how it pulls back and all that crap. Very tough market. Brutally beat up a lot of areas. And some areas, the transports were down another hundred today.

which has me questioning the economy. The airlines, by the way, the transports is a closing new yearly low today. The airlines, when we've had Delta, come out and say what we reported yesterday. Businesses got issues. The other part of the equation, ladies gentlemen, I'm not kidding when I say this to you, United Airlines is going to retire 21 aircraft. Let me tell you what the highlight is. Blaming, plunging demand. As I said to you, my last couple of trips to the airport and on flights felt like a little bit light. The airlines has 500 aircraft on order, but many of those are intended to replace existing aircraft.

Here's what they had to say. It started with the government. Government is 2% of our business. Government adjacent all of the consultants and contracts that go along with it, probably about 2% to 3%. That's running down about 50% right now. So a pretty material impact in case you don't know. The surrounding counties around D.C., the amount of homes for sale, has skyrocketed. And of course, as I have said to you, this administration is determined to cut down on the size of government.

Yay! I read today that they look to have 70,000 people out of the Veterans Administration. And I was thinking to myself, wait a minute, it's the Veterans Administration. You can't do that. And then I find out there's 480,000 people that work in the Veterans Administration. 480,000 people. So leave no doubt. The government part of the economy is on the dwindling front.

I'm happy about it. I believe they created this gargantuan blob. I hate anybody losing their jobs. I'm not happy about that part. But in any situation, if you have a thousand people doing the same job, if you're a company and you have a thousand people doing the same job, what are you going to do?

It's called the bottom line. They've never cared about the bottom line because they've been using our money. So this is unfortunately a necessary evil. And I think the people that LinkedIn are going to be very happy with how many people come to them. What they're also saying, United is we've seen, seen some of it bleed over to the domestic leisure market.

The good news is that international long-haul Hawaii premium all remain really strong. For good reason, of course. Hawaii, you know. You know, I've been, I think I'm 13 times to Hawaii now. I love that place. So there's some definitive moves afoot that's going on out there. which takes me to today's Doge moment

something I'm not surprised about you know there's all this talk about the USAID has had all these billions of dollars run by Samantha Power who try to say we're only 1% which is 50 billion dollars well I don't know if you heard about this but the USAID official is telling staffers the shred and burn documents.

Really? An agency that's been spending $50 billion of our tax dollars every year? Burn and shred documents. Shouldn't the people that are burning and shredding documents should be up on Capitol Hill right now?

Seriously. Seriously. I didn't see news cover this too much, did I? Huh. I think Doge has done a good thing. thing. I think the world will keep standing. I don't think I need to do anything else in a doge moment at this point in time just to let you know what I believe to be a bunch of corrupt

blankety blanks are destroying documents. And we'll leave that as the doge moment for today because I'm going to have plenty tomorrow that I'm going to save. The continuation of finding out, that they have been given us the taxpayer, the middle finger, forever, continues. Brought to you by a pliant media, one would think all this news with Stacey Abrams and these others, billions of dollars, billions, tens of billions, hundreds of billions, you would think the media, you know, the investigative media would be licking their chops to look at this and do something about. it. Nope. All they're reporting on is Elon this and Elon that. Welcome to the media. Up next, what else is going on in the market? Lots more. I'm Gary. This is the one-only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary

money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets. that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22. 5559. That's 888422-42559. That's 888. 422-5-5-9. Investment advisory services offered through

Coltbaum Capital Management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with

unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. Agents who are realtors do more than open doors. They analyze market trends, interest rates, comps.

They can tell you about flood zones, mixed use zones, and decode acronyms like HOA, APR, MLS. They connect you to lawyers, contractors, even Phil, the Sewardcope guy. They negotiate, coordinate, advocate for you, close the deal with you, and hand the keys to you. They bring you home. Realtors are members of the National Association of Realtors, right by you. It's time to switch on the integrator units. the brain cells working you're listening to hey this promises to be fun investors edge the last bastion of quality programming with gary cult bomb it doesn't get better than this uh let me take you off

the uh beaten path for a second i don't know if you know this but i've said it quite a few times here i study and what i do is i study successful people and i study what characteristics they've had their stories. I've read about their life stories. And I would say most all of them have the same characteristics. They worked harder. They worked smarter. They worked longer. They studied more. They had more passion. They treated their employees as partners and with dignity. and we've told you about the first book I ever read was Roger Storback, a great real estate guy. I didn't read it because he was the quarterback in real estate. And I've read lots of stories about a lot of success stories and something hit me last night because I read that Junior Bridgman passed away.

Now, you may not know who he is, but he used to play for the Milwaukee Bucks and the Los Angeles Clippers. and retired. He became a billionaire, a basketball player, a black man. Huh, wait, what? We're told the black man can't make it in society. Anyway, junior Bridgman ended up a magnificent success story that died yesterday. He was fine. He was at an event and just died of a heart attack.

some leadership event and just passed away. He was a self-made billionaire after getting out of basketball. He eventually ended up owning 100 Wendy's and Chili's restaurants around the country and ended up with 450 restaurants through his company, which was Bridgman Foods, which were sold in 2016. He also had enterprises like, Coca-Cola bottling operations. He owned Ebony and Jet Magazines

and also the Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville. Estimated net worth of $1.4 billion. Now, we don't measure people on money. We measure them on success and doing the right things. And he was always given back to his community and the University of Louisville and Louisville athletics and for young ones. I've never met the man.

but I was kind of devastated when I heard the news. It was only 71 years old because this is one of the people I've studied. The other basketball player I have studied, and you should read up as Jamal Mashburn. Another major success coming out of the NBA. Oh, a black man. Go read up about Junior Bridgman. Go read up Jamal Mashburn.

By the way, go read up about Magic Johnson, who has turned communities around by getting involved on a business basis. One of the greatest things that has ever happened to me was when I was part of this little company called Trading Markets.com, I used to write for them and be a part. We had an event in Vegas, and the keynote speaker was Magic Johnson. and Larry Conner's the owner of trading markets.com, I'd like you to interview him. What? In front of like 800 people. And I was already doing radio and stuff,

and I guess he thought because I was doing radio and TV that I'd be good at it. I was so nervous I can't begin to tell you. I got to spend a half hour with Magic Johnson before and got to know him a little bit and all the great things he's done. And he told me after the interview, I asked them the best question he's ever been asked. And that was the one thing I have noticed about people like you, Larry Byrd, Michael Jordan,

whether it's the first ambition game in the first minute or the last minute of game seven in the NBA championships, you will dive for every ball until your elbows are bleeding. why you three are like that and so many others aren't. He loved that question, and he started going into how his father worked the overnight shift. I think it was some auto company in Detroit. Anyway, go read up on these people. These success stories, greatness.

And if you have kids, Have them read up. Because how do you become great? You mimic great, don't you think? That's why when I hear Bernie Sanders say, oh, we need a four-day work week. I say, go screw. You think Junior Bridgman worked four days a week?

Bernie Sanders is a mediocre money grubber that has lived off the taxpayer's whole life. I'll work four days. What an ass. Anyway, I just had to bring that up because when I saw that, I never met the guy. It hit me. And it also tells you about life.

This guy was in great shape and just dies of a heart attack. At the age of 71. He grabbed his chest. He told them, I believe I'm having a heart attack. They ran them to the hospital and did not make it. We move on. We segue back. So when we look at markets,

we don't look at the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, by themselves. We look at 200 sectors, sub-sectors, countries, commodities. And then every night we'll scan about 1,500 names and all the groups. We've had a real shalacking here as of recent. people are wondering why the many you're out saying don't worry the many many

are saying don't worry just pay attention we always think markets do things for a reason we've seen moments where months ago the market got trashed because an event which was Japan and came right back

Japan had that issue whatever the issue was I wonder about something else at work here. When the airlines are plunging, travel is plunging, economically sensitive

are plunging. Up next. News of the day. More on the markets. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy

John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's Shave thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a 300,

annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

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He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. By the way, to give you an idea, the Dow this week is down 1,450 points or 3.39%. The NASDAQ had a real rough Monday. The last two days, the NASDAQ, let's see, 17468, is up 180 points exactly in the last two days. The Dow in the last two days, 41-9-1-1 is down 561 points, so you get where money is flowing.

The worries transports at new yearly lows. I mentioned yesterday, and there was no relief today, the definition of transports, is they move the economy, whether it's people, packages, commodities, big industry, we're at new yearly lows. That is checkmark number one. Number two, things like United Rentals, that was up a little today has gone from 900 to 600. They do 16 billion a year in renting things for building and stuff like that. Other economically sensitive names, the same, just blown up. Homebuilders, New Yearly Lowe's on home builders while the 10-year yield has gone from 4-8 to 4-3. Another check.

Retail. New Yearly Lows. Abercrombie and Fitch. That was a very strong name. Best Buy just blew up on earnings, which weren't very good. Target New Yearly Low today

Walmart fine but just wet topped out and is down you ready for this 105 to 85

it's about 18% in three weeks just to name a few in retail it gives me pause

because the market has its way of flushing some things out. And maybe it's the reaction to tariffs. I don't know. I don't know. All I do know is the reality of it. And another day, even though the NASDAQ was up nice, advance new highs, new lows on the NASDAQ, there really were no new highs. There were 191 new yearly lows still.

The big banks, they bounced a little today, but they also just beaten up, blasted in the recent past. Goldman, 672 to 535. in three weeks that is I believe 67 134 getting close to that 20% others are the 20% big banks we already knew regionals were on the weak side because when it comes to comparing regionals to big banks everybody remembers when the regionals got blasted and trust is lower than the big banks. That worries me. We told you about the companies that are the ones that go out and buy them up, fix them up, take them public. Black Rock, Black Rock, you know them. 1,084 to 9-10 in the last four weeks.

Blackstone 200 to 140 that's a bare market Apollo Group 189 to 135 and that's after being up five bucks today Colbert

Kravis Roberts KKR 170 to 114 in four weeks and that was up the last couple of days what's up with that check mark and then the next

part. The semis have been wicked for quite a while. A ton of them have been blasted at or near New Yearly Lows. What's with that? Checkmark. And of course, the highly touted artificial intelligence that had some bouncing today, but they're still way, way down. All this has me watching. the economy even more than I usually do. That's why yesterday I asked each and every one of you if you can email me with your experience, with your job, your industry, what's happening in your city, email me at gawrhicagallbom and callbom.com or gulpbom.com. If you own a restaurant, work at a restaurant, work in a mall, own a mall, anything, I want to hear from you, especially if you're seeing some softness. We want to get a feel. I've already done my own little channel checks

with businesses I know here in Central Florida. We'll report to you on that the next week or so, but so far, yeah, a little bit on the soft side. I have yet to do my Disney and Universal channel check, but I don't think is there ever a bare market at Disney or Universal here in Orlando? though. And Universal's opening up this new epic universal. I think it's called Epic. I'm going to have to check that out. So we're watching real closely here. Markets have their way of flushing things out.

As you know, I am not a fan of the tariffs. There are tariffs being put on to us and tariffs we've put on to them. We backed away from some bigger ones, but there were more threats out today. We'll see what's next up for those threats. I can't overemphasize enough that tariffs are taxes on us, on consumers in business, so why are we raising taxes when we're being told that lowering taxes help the economy. I've had quite a few people email me, taking me on a little bit in a very respectful way. They don't disagree with the definition, but they think it's the right move and it's tactical and reciprocal is good. Okay. Hey, my hope is it all works out. My worry, it's a higher tax. And it drills a lot of uncertainty into the system. So we'll see how it plays out.

We think there's a component of that working on the market also. Has to be. And let's hope there is not a chilling effect. My other little worry, this administration, where so many things they're doing right, they sound a little bit too much like they think they're omnipotent and can't do anything wrong. You know when your biggest trouble is when you think, you can do no wrong. We'll see how it plays out. I don't cross my fingers. I don't believe in that. We'll just hope that their decision making works out well. Again, no fan of the tariffs. I love

what they've done on the border. I love what they're doing with the campuses. Love it. less regulations, love it. Up next, this is that, the other thing, or whatever else. I'm Gary, this is the one only. Investors Edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Sprinker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads,

meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Inversters Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. As mentioned, not just United, Delta cut their profit forecast by 50 to 70% blaming eroding consumer confidence. We're going to pay attention to that, kids.

We are going to pay attention to that. Travel is a big part of this economy and the airline stocks are really getting hit hard. Stay tuned. We'll be on it. Which does take me to Southwest Airlines. I talked about it yesterday. I have to tell you. You know when they do articles online and then,

at the bottom you can see reactions to the articles. We'll see how it plays out. But people are pissed off at Southwest Airlines. Not about the seat structure. You know, as you know, Southwest has a seat structure. First one in, you get to choose your seat. The biggest problem Southwest has had recently is people have been lying about their health and getting on early and then doing a dance on the airplane.

And all of a sudden, 80 people are on the plane before anybody gets on. So they're going to go to premium seats? I know that's a good move. But the one thing Southwest did and promoted themselves big time, every advertisement from Southwest, baggage-free. Well, they no longer can market that because no longer is baggage-free. Unless you're a premium member. of their whatever whatever, you know, frequent traveler thing of the bob.

And I was just noticing to a person, dang, are they pissed? I'm done. I'm not ever flying Southwest. They don't care about me. Felt I was part of a club. And now they kick me in the you know what's. That's the type of things. And hundreds and hundreds and hundreds.

We'll see. In case you don't know, there's been a private equity company being involved. And they did a study and they said something about they think they're going to make a billion a half bucks off of baggage going forward. But there was another study that says you're going to lose a billion a half of market share. We'll see. There are people that have said, I fly it because of the luggage thing. Not anymore. This will be a potential case study going forward.

Because all they're really doing is going to where everybody already is. Charge for a bag. If you're a premium member, you don't get charged. And I gather if you buy a good seat, you probably don't get charged for a bag. Stay tuned. Look at all this news out of the airline industry this week. Not thrilled. Walmart has told their Chinese suppliers to please absorb.

cost of Trump's tariffs. Interesting. Now you would think the Chinese would say okay to a certain extent, you know why. Do you know how much in dollars Walmart buys? Oh, a bazillion. I'm interested in seeing what comes of this. That's big time stuff. Just remember, bigness can see. save you a lot of money. That hit me today. And there's a little bit of your news. What's working? Gold, miners. China, though in pullback mode. I can't say insurance anymore. I can say a few insurance stocks are still in shape. A bunch of them broke down. But as I look at the new yearly high list, there ain't much. defensive issues were working. We pose the question is that money just getting parked there. Well, they're hitting them right back down. European banks have been strong and a smattering of things. Warren Buffett stock, Berkshire, strong. Some of the exchanges, strong. In the Dow, 3M, strong. And when we use the word strong,

they're not necessarily going you know what to the upside, but they're not getting hit. It's all relative. Wish I had better news. The number one question I'm asking, do you think the big indices will end up in a bare market of 20% or more? I have stated to you, I'm not there just yet.

But that doesn't matter. The fact that the matter is they're in downtrends right now. Little bounce today could have been better, could have been worse. Dow didn't finish well today. Adobe after the close, important software stock. Closed at 438 and change, it's 424. And it's already weak stock.

That's not good news. Boy, oh boy, we can't catch a break right now. Other earnings this week? Not much to report. William Sonoma. I hear they have good kitchen stuff. That's about it. If anything changes, we'll let you know, but definitely a good time to be sitting on sideline with some of the cash.

As always, we don't tell you what to do. You get to decide. It's your money. And frankly, those that have owned the Vanguard S&P for the last 20 years need not listen. You've lived through bull and bear markets, smash it. and crashes, COVID, this administration and that administration, and we would just really at new yearly, new all-time highs, though I think we're about 7% off on the S&P now. Is that about right?

61, 47, 559, 5. Yeah, about 7%. And that all said, you have a great evening. Drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. and they will feel better, you'll feel better.

I promise they will, be well. Serenity now. Have a good night, everybody. Bye-bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero-chafe thanks to four times. more stretched than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you

by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.