Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - PERSISTENCE [08.19.2024]

Episode Date: August 19, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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VALA through 327. Selection varies by location. All supplies last. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Monday. It's August. I have no clue what day it is at the 19th, 20204. And as always, serious talk on everything that affects you, and we have lots to cover. amazingly lots to cover, an amazing three weeks of market action that I have to tell you, we always say to you, you know, we have boxes in our office of charts printed out.

And I have one I'm looking at right now. It says energy bear market, most under the 50-day rallying into the 50-day that was from a certain year. a few years ago. We have the 1987 crash. We have every bare market and bull market over the last 30 years. And what we do is we print out charts

for precedent. And we're very good at what we say to you is the photo album for familiar faces. And I was always impressed. When I used to go to a William O'Neill workshop, somebody would ask about a stock

and he would say, well, in 1967, so-and-so, so-and-so did the exact same thing. Let's take a look and they would post it up, and it was there. I must tell you, the last three-plus weeks, I'm not sure there's a lot of precedent out there. I'm not sure there's a ton to learn from as far as the strength. I'm not sure of how long it lasts or how far it goes. What I am sure of is I'm going to remember more than anything, more than anything, that vicious volatility, monstrous washout two Mondays ago. And I remember I sent out a note that day stating, I think this probably marks A-Lo. I'm figuring for myself so we'll rally up a little bit and then we'll see what happens we have pretty much

V-shaped up got back the lower high just so you know we dropped made a lower high on August 1st that was a Thursday Gapped down the Friday

Gapped down the Monday and just stunning and another day today where today, we didn't gap up. Today, there wasn't a gargantuan excitement, but today finished with a flurry of buying, and I can promise you it was not Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob, and something occurred by the end of the day that could be of very much import. And I've been asked for the last,

I was on an airplane I got asked about this. What do you think is going on? How does this happen? And my answer always is, I don't know. We do know somewhat of cause and effect was this thing with Japan, but we don't really know. We're never sure, but we're going to remember this. And we're writing down notes to ourselves every day about how do I, want to handle this if we ever see it the next time. The problem about saying that,

this has really happened three times, three times in 16 years, three times. And it's just amazing to me. Amazing. The high in 08 was 89, but that was in the middle of a real brutal bare market and it took a while. It took months for the volatility index to go from 89 back to 15. I'm looking at a monthly chart right now.

In COVID, it took a few months. Though it came down pretty quickly when the Fed did their thing. You know the Fed printed to $9 trillion. This one

days days crushed and then a terrific move back up that is now for the lack of better words

persistent as all heck for lack of a better way to say it and today which really impressed the hell out of me and I mean big time impressed it drifted

all day, and then into the close, they bought the crap out of the NASDAQ and the semis. And for the record, the record, the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100 are already back above the 50-day moving average. And back above the highs of that second vicious three-day drop. I don't have any complaints. usually I come on the show and I'll complain about something but that was one big hellacious institutional pounding

into the market into the close today of the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 types and I must tell you as I said to you last week if I had the market do my bidding I'd have it pull back for a few days had nothing like that in mind today

nothing like that in mind. Market stretched extended overbought on a near-term basis. It came in today that way. If a market stretch extended and overbought and keeps going, it tells you the word persistence. How can this be? What is doing it? Aren't they telling us recession, depression,

crashes, smashes, Japan, job market, don't know. The most important thing that happened today, at the close today, most important thing, they got back above the 50 day, and if it can stick, it'd be huge, if it can stick. There's no rule of thumb that it does stick. So we throw you if it sticks. we're impressed

we have no idea what happens tomorrow I can tell you that today at if I can find it I know I can find it somewhere at around 350

it was a good day in the last 10 minutes the QQQQ went from 479 to 481 Now, I don't know if that sounds like a lot. It really isn't, but in 10 minutes, at the close of a day, while the market's trying to get back what can only be qualified as a crash at, stunning. Leading the way, NVIDIA, with a V-shaped move up. remember the high and then the July 11th high and then the meltdown and then that Monday reversal

put A-Lo in you got the confirmation follow-through day last Tuesday that was not explosive but it's working when it stops we'll let you know but that was a damn good day for the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100, and we'll see what tomorrow brings. As we always say, we don't know about tomorrow. The semiconductors were weak early, finished up. Dow up 236, and you know what led the Dow today? McDonald's. Somebody upgraded them, saying they're selling a bunch of $5 meals.

McDonald's, one of the bare market stocks that had just turned the corner, on crappy numbers, coming up the right. side very nicely. S&P up 54, NASDAQ 245, NASDAQ 100, 257, and I think the NASDAQ was up like 80 points in the last 10 minutes. Up next, continuation, and the Democratic National Convention. I'm Gary, this is the one-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, Comfort, perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

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This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I don't know if there's anything else I need to say except wow. And all last week we were saying the same thing about that Monday, about the volatility day, the washout after a crushing. the one thing that is perplexing is

how can a Japan that raises rates a quarter point crash a market and then decide to roll that back and then okay to get back the crash but keep going. We'll see. Will we take out the old highs? Beats the hell out of me. But nothing we saw today

says we possibly won't. And I thought I had got done with all my scans at 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. I probably got to do them all over again because of the last 10 minutes. But leave no doubt as we taught you. And we have taught you this. When the big money crowd buys into the clothes. There you go. By the way, the NASDAQ, let's call it 17. 83 points in 10 minutes into the close. 83 big whoppers into the close. Now warning shots and video reports next week.

We'll see what happens. Palo Alto reported after the close. It was originally down $20 on earnings. It's now up $9 on earnings. I'll take a look at them in a little bit. And that's the story. Just what a freaking comeback in the market. You know, we never predict here.

We always tell you we interpret, but don't think for a minute we don't write down notes to ourselves about what we think could possibly happen. That's always in our file manager. I can tell you in any of our thoughts would not have been. the NASDAQ getting back the 50 day in less than two weeks of trading. Why? How far down we were? We were far down. The semiconductors dropped 28% to the low.

The NASDAQ I think 16 to 17. And that was from a lower high, meaning it dropped, it put in a little shelf, and it tanked. again, we'll see what tomorrow brings. What else today? Broad market, advanced declines finished well at the end of the day. The semis were weak all day, finished green. The financials, they were up but nothing spectacular. Transport's up 1.30, still very weak.

Oils were up a little bit, no big deal. Nothing to do there. Some of the big biotech strong. One name I did not touch because of earnings was Regeneron. earnings have been spotty broke out at 1107 it's 1196 in about eight days um what else do i got for you just overall housing bouncing maybe putting in a low here i'm a little agnostic on that at this juncture and the 10 year yield again down a quarter today the 3.867 3.867 3.867 3.866 stunning

so I was on TV today and I didn't know what happened but all of a sudden Charles asked me people out there are saying it looks like the 87 crash and I'm like what what do you mean looks like the 87 crash

well because back in that year the market was really going well and starting in September it started topping out and then it rallied back and then crashed. So could we have the same type of thing? First off, crashes don't happen often. Secondly, as we have told you, we went back to the 87 crash and we try to do it with no bias. Not easy to go back to see what you have done and have no bias, but we try to do it with no bias. We could safely say we would have been out of the market for the crash of 87, not knowing

it was going to crash, but every stock was breaking down. A bunch started breaking down in September. And then on October 6th, which was the, trying to think what day that was. Yeah, October 6th was a two. Tuesday, we saw a top. The 50 day got taken out on the seventh. Yeah, we would have been out on the 8th. And of course, the crash was that Monday, which was the 19th.

We're not seeing that as of yet, so I would not worry. What we are seeing is dang. That's what we are seeing. Dang, I'm impressed. And now we'll see what comes of it. To what extent we don't know, we'll do our scans find out. We see some actually good little setups from low levels, let alone breakouts in some of the big names. And if they continue higher, that's good news.

But the real story today was just persistent Nvidia, throwing a little Tesla, throwing a little Adobe. AMD bought some company was up six bucks today. just good day. And due to the fact, I have absolutely no complaints. That would probably be down 500 tomorrow. Again, we have no clue what happens tomorrow. We don't even try to even suggest the next day because sheer insanity is taken over the last three weeks.

Oil prices down, good. Crypto-flatish, no biggie. Range-bound for a while. Get asked about that every day. And my left screen, pretty green. That's all the beat up, busted up, technology stocks that had not come back. Green Day. I can't wait to scan this tonight.

And we'll see what happens. As always, any questions? You can email me anytime. It's just a big wow even for us. An outlier event in a sleepy summer in the market. Up next, what else is going on? I'm Gary. This is the one only investors, Andrew. It's no use putting it off.

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comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker makes the whole process.

simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. All right. Let's segue. You got the Democratic National Convention this week. And as you know, we don't pull any punches. we think one of the greatest con jobs in history was they waited and waited and then kicked Joe Biden's butt out by threatening them in any way, shape, or form, who knows, and made sure that there wouldn't be any primaries so they could have Kamala Harris in there, because primaries would have had one going after the other.

and going after the other and going after the other. The media refuses to jump all over it. They kind of report it. What are the greatest scams? You know, there's talk about elections and stuff like that and democracy. Don't ever believe the words out of these people about democracy, that there was no democracy in the election on the side of the Democratic. Party this year for the presidency of the United States.

I never want you to forget that. We're also finding out, here's the other part of the equation. Are you ready? It is now being reported what we told you for a very long time. It is now being reported that, oh, Joe Biden was on the phone calls with Hunter Biden and the Biden family. when they were shaking down all these other places and got 20-some-odd million bucks in their coffers for doing nothing. And that Joe Biden was the big guy and all that funky stuff.

It's now being reported, do you know why? Because he doesn't matter anymore. Another part of the scam. The next part of the scam is the people that kids, He kicked his arse out, threatened them to get out, are all out there saying, what a great president he was. What a magnificent job. Mount Rushmore, 10 million illegals in here. Okay, let's call them migrants.

Massive inflation that they said there wasn't any and then said it was transitory. prices much higher than they were three years ago. Two trillion dollar deficits. While they tell you, they've lowered the deficit and just absolutely lie about it, the media covers that up. And now the latest, the latest. Have you noticed they've all gotten together the media and the Dems now talking about they're joyful. the joy of this convention. So we want to make sure you know the joy, the joy, the joy.

They have raised government spending from $4.4 trillion the year before COVID to $7 trillion. Biden does not get blame for the year before COVID. The federal spending now is more than COVID years. the deficits are they're spending two trillion more than they are supposed to they refuse to account for where a ton of it went on climate and things like that joyful the congressional budget office says because of this trajectory and by the way it's not just Biden it's Trump it's Obama it's Bush but Biden gets the championship belt because of this trajectory the sea CBO says we're going to 56 trillion of debt in 10 years. That's in a year for the next 10 years. But we know the CBO is always low. So let's talk 65 to 70 trillion in debt.

Joyful. Joyful. They're calling for major tax hikes. Joyful. An unrealized capital gains tax. Joyful. A much higher long-term capital gains tax will just wipe out long-term capital gains. business. A will be fair about it, a wealth tax which they've already tabled, but it was on the table for a while.

Joyful. Price controls. Joyful. Government running industry by telling them what they can charge. and if they go over, threaten them. Joyful. Even though they have evidence after evidence after evidence of other price controls tried that all turned into disaster. Joyful. They're going to tell you for the next four days how much you need them. Joyful. That your lot in life will never.

ever get there it should be without them, joyful. That your lot in life is where it is because everybody is screwing you. They're gouging you. Even the supermarkets that get one and a half percent margins are gouging you. Joyful. Do I need to go on? Joyful. Remember what I have told you.

If I was running for president, lower taxes, less regulations, a government, but efficient and effective, and get the hell out of your way, and let you flourish. That's all. That's joyful. Them? Control freaks. Nothing more. They've never been successful at anything they've done. So they got into politics.

As far as Vice President Harris, they're going to try to wipe away the last three and a half years of 10 million migrants, gargantuan move in prices that you are paying on so many things. Afghanistan. Debt and deficits. She wasn't there. Do you know what they're telling you now? Joyful? On day one.

Well, day one was three and a half years ago. We'll be watching. And as always, you get to decide. You know where we stand on both? We're actually a little bit depressed about the binary choice, but we deal in reality here. If the election was today, believe it or not, I think she'd be winning.

Because in typical fashion, the other candidate is stepping all over himself. We're hoping advisors, well, they should be hoping advisors get to him because by calling a woman dumb is not going to get a woman vote. That's all. That's just one little example. Whoever wins, we'll wish them best. We'll critique them like crazy And we'll compliment them if they do well

That's what we really want We want to be able to compliment these people But they are nothing more than control freaks And we're nothing more than their slush fund And one hell of a gigantic slush fund we are And it's getting worse by the day Lastly, they're going to have Bill Clinton speaking. If I had a daughter, I wouldn't let him within 50 yards of that daughter.

But he gets to speak. Up next. What else is going on? This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative

horizontal quick-draw-fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen,

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast, might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. All right. One hell of a day today. just so you know on the days we have gapped up I didn't come on here that impressed

just saying wow we gapped up I get impressed when you have calm quiet and then they buy the hell out of the market into the close that's when I get impressed again we'll see what tomorrow brings gold was down a lot early not a lot but down finished only down a little bit and gold stocks much better than the gold today

and that's what you kind of sort of want to see. And I would just be jumping all over myself talking more about the market. It was that good of the close today. Now remember, there's massive overhead resistance ahead. We just got back the crash. Just so you know, all we did is get back the three-day crash so far. So if there's more to go, terrific.

Hey, in the news, you know, we always talk about the things that affect you and your life and your money. And we do think crime is one of the big things. And by the way, there's this, all this talk Republicans are saying that under the Democrats, crime is worsened. And the Democrats say, here's the statistics. Just so you know, crime statistics will be played with. You do know that, right? Here's one. A violent career criminal who allegedly murdered his twin sister in Jersey last week

was released on bail a few months ago after shooting a bystander in the back. And I'm thinking to myself, this is New York City, by the way. I take a Well he shot It happened This just happened New Jersey But he shot somebody

In the back in Manhattan And I'm thinking to myself A man Shot somebody in the back By the way with two bullets Hit him And you give him bail Now I know there's laws on the book

But there's also Judicial What's the word I'm thinking of Judicial reference where a judge can say, you try to murder somebody in code blood? No bail. Have a nice day. See you, trial. Anyway, he murdered his twin sister. And I just had to bring that up because, man, oh man, do I read a lot about these things? It's happening at so many places. Think about that. In the news, I have told you time and time again, I am not a conspiracy theorist. I believe that nine Levin was not an inside job, though there's, I know people that do believe that.

I don't believe in Bigfoot of the Lochness monster. I do believe we landed on the moon, but I do believe JFK was murdered by more than one person, and all you got to do is look at the Zupruda film, that they had no idea was there, and they still tell you, it's not true. There's something weird going on. I had to bring this up. Why? because this really does affect

not the market I would say do you know ex-president Trump was shot in the year almost died have you been reading about what went down picture

that I could be wrong but the murderer was on the phone with somebody right before he was doing the shooting? Have you heard anything on the investigation whatsoever? I haven't, have you? And now this. Think about this. Remember, I'm not a conspiracy theorist. This piece of crap, try to assassinate an ex-president who's running for president now, and in the meantime murdered an innocent man. You got that? They

cremated his body. Who made that decision? Is that the right call? Is that the right move? The guy tried to assassinate an ex-president and the candidate on the Republican side for President of the United States, just months before the election, and murdered another man. And they cremated his body. And I'm just adding all these things up, and then I remember Jeffrey Epstein. who had so much on so many powerful people that obviously were sexual predators also, that in jail we're being told that somehow the cameras weren't working on the most important prisoner in that jail, the guards were nowhere to be found, and the leading coroner, Baden, came out and said he was murdered,

but they have come to tell us, he committed suicide. And I'm just starting to wonder because I'm a logical guy. And these are the people that are coming to us from on high about what we should know. Just how to bring all this up

because I'm just wondering, are these the people that are running the country? And if you don't know that these are the people that running the country will affect the economy and the markets and life in general. We'll leave it at that for today. But a great day at the end of the day. Have a good evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do, quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. No TV tomorrow as of now. We'll be back on radio. With another conspiracy theory, maybe.

Have a good one, everybody. Peace out. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryKK.com. That's GaryKK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details.