Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Persistence. YIELDS AND OIL [09.15.2026]

Episode Date: September 15, 2026

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Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. Did you hear that introduction? Straight talk on you and your money. But it's really everything. The markets, the economy, your industry, your job. everything that moves cause and effect that matters to you and as we have stated here and we

pull no punches and state for the record we do take in some gruff we don't give a crap who's run in this country we only give a crap what they're doing while they're running the country. We don't see R, we don't see D. We left the R years ago when we saw what the R was turning into and they've proven us right, unfortunately. And we bring them up all the time now because they are infecting the markets like they've never had before. They are taking over like we'd never seen before. And this is from a Republican Party. We'll have more to say on that throughout today's show because it doesn't end. But hey, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, debt deficit scams, shams, corruption, earnings, crypto, and whatever else comes to mind. I lost week one of Fantasy League because Jalen Waddle got two targets last night. I think he had one catch for two yards.

And Drake London got me nothing from Atlanta wide receiver. And I still could have won because I have Derek Henry and Taylor for Indianapolis and Zay Flowers who got injured before halftime with five catches and 150 yards. So I'm very depressed. But it's only one week. notice how we can segue all over the place here, ladies and gentlemen. Okay, if you do not get this radio show in your city,

we'll post at GaryK.com, we'll post on our X feed, and if you don't follow us on X, you should. If you'd like to email us, just be nice. No, just be nice. Just be respectful. We'll be respectful back. I have to tell you, we engage with the Marxists. We do.

And we do it in a way where I totally disagree with them. They totally disagree with me, There's no cursing, no four-letter words. Have a great day. Take care. Of course, if you like Hamas, you're racist, you robbed a bank today, committed a felony, we're not going to like you. So the Dow was down 328, the S&P 34, NASDAQ 204, NASDAQ-189, Russell, 224, 24, transports, 80, advanced declines, another miserable day, 1298 up, 32-59 down on the New York. York, 1452 up, 3415 down on the NASDAQ. And what that simply means is the internals and the

technicals worsen. That's all that, that's what it means. New lows, new yearly lows in the market, 885 on the New York and NASDAQ. New highs, I'm showing 169. But when I look at the new highs, as I always tell you, there's some weird crap in there. And if I really added up the numbers, They're probably about 60 or 70 new highs on both indices, which is not a lot. And I also will tell you that a bunch of oils are there, and the fact that oils are at new highs means oil prices keep going up. The one area that strength from yesterday was a little bit stronger again today, and that is the software, specifically software security,

because of the worry about this whole artificial intelligence crap. that by the way, I consider myself a smart person, a learned person, a person that reads a hell of a lot, and I don't understand 80% of this artificial intelligence stuff. And I certainly do not understand the talk of the end of humanity. Just so you know, that's what they've been saying. And I'm thinking to myself, wait a minute, are these the climate change people? The end of humanity? I still remember, what was it, Al Gore, 20 some odd years ago said in 10 years we're going to be underwater.

Remember that? But Al Gore made himself a couple of hundred million bucks off. God bless them. Anyway, so another rough day in the market, but what stood out, the sore thumb again, is that the 10-year yield went over 5% today, pulled back at the end, but is sitting at 4.996 as I speak, the 5-year, 4.826, the 30-year, 5.364, and the two-year, two-year yield. I've got to look that one up at the close today. 4.673 on the two. The feds at 3-5. I have newsfea. They should raise rates tomorrow. It will not affect your life and possibly can help.

If the market sees that they care about inflation, interest rates may come down on the long end. We'll see. I have absolutely not a clue. And I don't know how the market's going to react. I will tell you this on a short-term basis. Market is oversold. It is stretched. Sentiment is turned decidedly bearish.

Typically, that's good news if we get some relief on yields going up and oil prices going up, which, by the way, oil was up $3.5. bucks today. Again, do you know at the close today, Brent crude for November is $108.61. And unfortunately, listen carefully, we say with no joy, you have a president is walking in front of the camera and lying out his butt. Iran wants a deal. They're calling. me. They're laughing at them. I hate saying it. And the president's doing nothing about oil prices every day going higher, which when we say to you affects you and your money, go check what's going on at the pump now. And I got news for it. It's going to keep going higher. average gas price in the U.S. is now at $4.33.

And they're out today saying, well, Biden was higher. I got newsfea. Couldn't give a crap. And I got newsfea. Neither do the people. And I saw somebody I respect very much on TV this morning say, well, if it's higher oil prices or Iran getting nuclear, you know what the problem with that is?

Their own intelligence told the White House they're not even close to nuclear, not even close, close, close, not even close, close, yet the president came out and said two weeks till they had it. He made that up. We'll keep watching. We're very disappointed with our leaders right now.

And by the way, if we sat down with them, we would tell them what we think. Then we'll probably get tax audited, but, you know, such as life. Little sarcasm. But what else? Because of them. The Treasury Secretary was out intervening with the long bonds. He was buying up long bonds to buy short, which is bad news. Why?

Because then you're depending on short-term rates, and you've got to keep. pressing and pressing and moving and moving. Anyway, since that occurred, nothing but higher prices for yields on bonds. And he was asked today in front of Congress and he said it's been a success. So you have the Treasury Secretary

look in the camera saying it's a success, what he did when it's been a miserable failure via pure evidence, yields going up. So I'm just letting you know we're very worried about them. They're being very dishonest about what's going on from the war to yields to what they're doing, not to mention all the other crap that's going on.

We're very worried about this. They have missed a gargantuan opportunity after that Bozo the clown, Biden, letting 10, 12, 14 million people in at the border on purpose, which he should have been impeached for. They had such an opportunity to do great things and do the right thing and what's going on. I'm reporting it to you. Up next, in-depth markets, a lot of sore thumbs.

This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 888-4-22.

5559. That's 888, 422, 52559. Investment advisory services offered through Coltbaum Capital Management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay. Two more things out of watching. Washington, D.C. So as you know, the president is offering $5,000 to each and every one of us. But they're moving things a little bit now.

If you're too rich and too successful, maybe you're not going to get the $5,000. In other words, this Republican administration are a bunch of socialist Democrats, picking and choosing winners and losers, if that's the case. But I'm letting you know that's not going to happen anyhow. They're calling it a dividend. Let me explain to you what a dividend is. It is something that comes from profits of a company or revenues from a company. Well, our company, the United States, is running a $2 trillion deficit.

That's a $2 trillion loss this year, yet they're going to send us dividends. Who are they trying a kid? And the Treasury Secretary said today, oh, it's not going to be from debt, my arse. Anyway, it's not going to happen. It's just the thing before the election to get votes. it's not going to happen. Do not spend the money first. Next, there's something called the Clarity Act.

And in case you don't know, it is a 600-plus page bill. And what it's supposed to do, let me put it in best words. It's supposed to establish some regulation, regulatory framework for digital asset markets and all that crap. which has me asking, there's no revenue, no sales, no earnings, no product, no services. It's just a asset that moves up in price and down in price. Regulatory what? But I digress. It tried to get through the Senate today, and it was blocked.

50 to 49 on a procedural vote, and they're saying it's a major set. back. The bill, I guess, needs to get 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, by the way, and then go to the floor, so it fell flat. There was a handful of Republicans against it. You know what happened? And don't ask me why, because I don't know. But Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped markedly, coin-based drop, circle internet drop, micro-strategy, Robin Hood all dropped. I don't know why they would drop if there was regulatory it beats the hell out of me i don't know i'm just letting you know what happened there in case you don't know so rough day for the crypto oil prices up yields up crypto down advanced declines miserable uh again strength in some of the software names software

security uh some oil strong but i got to tell you some oils a week also uh What can I tell you? Which takes us into the cause and effect. As you know, we have been telling you a main cause and effect. If oil prices are going up, airlines and cruise lines are going down. If interest rates keep going up, housing related will go down. Economically sensitive will go down. Companies that need a lot of debt will.

will go down because they're now paying up. So we're just letting you know a couple of things. We continue to tell you to avoid consumer-oriented areas, starting with retail, which got kicked in the teeth again today. As we have told you, there have been a few names that have been strong. And they kind of still, Abercrombie and Fitch is strong. Best Buy just broke out a range yesterday. Target's been strong.

But I got Newsfeed. another name that's been strong is five below. It decided to drop 14 bucks today. And don't get me started with Burlington and Boot Barn. They're crashing these stocks. By the way, we're very careful with our words. When we say crash, we mean they crash them. So that's retail.

We've already discussed airlines, cruise lines, direct correlation, and of course other travel. Hotels are getting hit. But you know what got hit hard? today also real hard what have we told you about restaurants in the last couple months we mentioned to you boy B J R I strong B J's restaurants strong even though earnings are down what else a cheesecake factory strong strong strong that's another one what else Brinker International Chili's right strong but a lot others weak well I got news for you the strong are breaking down the weak

the weak are crumbling they went after the restaurant stocks today with a fervor and that's bad news why again cause and effect consumer-oriented stocks you can now add the restaurants, all of them getting in trouble. And then some, like Wing Stop, has gone from 302 to 100 since February. What the hell's going on there? Shake Shack. I've never eaten a shake shats still. Has gone from 107 to 58 since April. So just let you know you can add another consumer area

to the nausea and its cause and effect oil and yields there's your story and if they continue higher bad if they come down good and again and again

we're very oversold yields are overbought oils overbought but I could have said that two days ago and I'm afraid the credibility out of D.C. is being shot to the ground more and more, and that ain't helping.

When the president comes out today and says, Iran wants a deal for the 7,000th time while they're lobbying ballistic missiles at our bases in the Middle East, that's not good news. So we hope for better news going forward. As we tell you, we don't have TDS, we don't have Trump derangement.

syndrome, we want him to be successful. We'll stand right with him. But man, oh man, unforced error after unforced error. And they're going to have their, you know what's handed to him in November. To a party that is the most illogical party in the history of time, that being the current party on the left. Thankfully, we'll have gridlock. And they will have, and they will not be able to get anything done in the two following years. And that's a little bit of our take as we will get more in depth in the markets. That's up next. I'm the one and only Investors Edge.

I'm listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better.

if you talk to and welcome once again to Investors Edge thanks for being with us today so as you know we were in Europe and we were doing a little perusing my take uh it was not peak season when we were there because i guess peak is july august but i do want to let you know i thought it was slow i could be wrong but i have been there where i was a few times different times of the year It felt slow. Slower. Not bad. Not really bad, but just slower than I would expect.

Crowds. I know what I expected. And crowds were not plentiful. We landed in Pisa and stayed at a hotel just for one night. near the Tower of Pisa, which is pretty damn cool. I'm still trying to figure out how it holds up. And that was on the busy side,

but not as busy as I have seen. After that, we went through many a town in Tuscany, including the most popular, felt on the slow side. Don't want to mention which. but felt on the slow side. I don't know what that means. Felt on the slow side.

Airports. Well, I went through Heathrow going and coming. Couldn't tell going because we got in like at 5.30 a.m. But coming back, that felt pretty decent. Felt on the busier side, but nothing big time. So we'll see what comes to that And as you know, we look at the numbers Of all these countries

And you know, growth not great And of course, debt heavy And we'll see Of course, in London, Buckingham Palace, very busy People love going in front of Buckingham Palace And so do I, by the way And taking pictures And we went to this place called the Camden Market

Usually we go to the Borough Market But we've never done the Camden Market but we've never done the Camden and it was good to see that was busy so for anything good I will tell you London felt pretty strong London tourism looked pretty darn good

that is one place that stuck out just let you know just let you know we have been doing a little bit of our small samples of businesses here And as we have told you, there is a prediction that this quarter that we are in,

we're going to have a 4% gross domestic product quarter, which is a great quarter. I want to see the internals of that because I got to tell you, I'm not feeling that. And every now and then, you could have an import move this way or that way that makes the quarter that much bigger, but comes right back down the next. I want to see if that occurs. At the very least, and I don't think I can say this loud enough, if yields keep going up and oil prices keep going up, nothing good is going to come from it.

And I worry, Trump ain't even talking about it anymore except to say Iran wants a deal, which is not true. that's all we're getting now out of that. And yes, I am surprised. It just keeps spiking higher and higher and higher. And in case you don't know, you think oil prices are high right now, if nothing changes, wait to you see about five days from now. Yeah, about five days from now.

Wait. And diesel, I had a rental car. in Europe, I've never ever filled up with diesel. It costs me 66 euros for a half a tank of diesel in Europe. What do I hear about diesel here? Was it six bucks? Diesel price in the U.S. $6.27.

You know who I feel for right now? Uber drivers, lift drivers, anybody driving, that pays for their own gas, and that is a crap load of hardworking people, eating into their profits because of a war that is completely miscalculated and nobody fired, which is really amazing. What else? Tomorrow's the Fed. Expectations, they're going to raise a quarter point. The administration says that that is bad. We say there's nothing bad about it. It's just playing catch up to the free market of yields of investors, traders, and speculators that set the market, not government.

They'll be playing catch up. and possibly will provide relief because it will be seen as somebody on the job versus Powell who was throwing money out of a helicopter which caused massive inflation. That's at 2 o'clock tomorrow. And as you know, we never watch the press conferences of the Central Bank. We may actually, I doubt we'll watch it live.

may actually tape it and watch some of it. Want to get a feel for this guy so far. We like what we are seeing from afar, but jury still be out. And it's good to see it looks like the president will stay out of the way. Feels like if he does raise rates, the president's not going to call him a moron

like he did with Powell. I think they made a little handshake. if you're going to hire me to do this, you've got to leave B. Anything else sticking out? Oh, by the way, did I forget McDonald's in restaurants? McDonald's is at a new yearly low down from 342 to 252 since February. New yearly low for McDonald's.

I'm just asking, what the hell is going on with McDonald's? I'm going to have to look that bad boy up. I know I read something. But man, oh man. My cousin used to have a restaurant, artists working people, my cousins, used to have a place called Mr.

Cody Island on 163rd Street, North Miami Beach, and they worked their tails off. That is one hell of a tough business in case you don't know. By the way, they had great hot dogs and canishes and did a great business. This is way back when.

I get asked often about buying oil stocks in the last week. Nobody asked about buying oil stocks, but now they are. That gives me some hope we're late in the move. The noise usually happens late in a move. And as I stated, give me oil prices down, give me yields down, we'll get a good rally, especially in the ones with the big cause and effect. Up next, this, that, and the other thing. And whatever else, this is the one only Investor's Edge. You're listening to

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. if you want to know a big reason on oil prices

let me read something to you Iran's leaders were never going to passively submit to slow strangulation facing Donald Trump's blockade of their ports in the near total loss of their oil exports the regime is now striking back

across the Middle East aiming to inflict enough damage to force America to relent In the last seven days, the Houthi rebels, go look it up, in Yemen, have broken out of their highland strongholds and advanced down the coastal plain, seizing key positions alongside, but you haven't heard of this place, the Bob Elmandeb Strait, where the Red Sea meets the Indian Ocean. ever since Iran began attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the Bob Al-Mandab Strait has become the principal outlet for Saudi Arabia's oil. The kingdom has managed to reroute about two-thirds of its exports more than 4 billion barrels per day via the Red Sea. Iran is now doing everything possible to wreck this alternative. Guess what? Oil prices going higher.

Iran is determined to inflict pain on themselves in order to inflict pain on the others. It's the best way I can put it. And the market knows it. And the market knows it. Their strikes have damaged hundreds of structures at U.S. bases. This is from the Pentagon, by the way. It's also detailing the extent of the United States munitions shortages, even though the administration says no. Guess who we believe?

So that is what's going on, kids. And until, I hate putting in these terms, until something gives. We're even surprised where things have gotten to. We're surprised. Our bet would not have been where oil is now. We were worried about the yield front. We've been worried about that for a long time.

And we do believe a component of it. Other countries are just selling it, getting rid of it, because they're tired of, you know, And that is a big component, ladies and gentlemen. It's a darn big component. We believe our leaders forgot that the leaders of other countries have egos just like them and will protect their countries just like them. And we think a lot of them have had enough and they basically say,

Kissar, you know what. And they're selling our bonds off. and you know we're not going to get our leaders to apologize or to back away and look like, oh, look weak, that be the story. Until we say otherwise, consumer areas avoid. We're worried about a lot of financial areas. Restaurants, airlines, cruise lines, hotels, housing, housing related. They're avoids.

healthcare mixed. I can give a case a few things look strong. Others, see ya. There's some new highs in healthcare today. A company called Revity, RVTY, New High. Merkin, Moderna just had a real strong move, though they're settling down.

And then there are others that have been... Eli Lilly breaks out and massively fails. For me, the big story is the internals. advance decline figures, pitiful. The new highs versus new, well, it's now new lows versus new highs, pitiful. And we're going to need a change of complexion in oil and yields to change the complexion. It is the defining force by far, by far, in ways much bigger than they've been. been in a very long time. Don't dare look at mortgage rates right now. They're up, up, up, up.

The housing market becoming more of a buyer's market because massive amount of inventory and still fantasy land prices. If you're buying bid way under, especially in neighborhoods where a bunch of them are for sale at the same time. That's the good news I can give you. The other good news is the big indices are not far off the highs, which are amazing, but underneath the surface, worse than the big indices. Sometimes the makeup of the big indices keep them higher. Let's hope it stays that way. Small and midcaps, much worse right now. And that's coming from the advanced declines, the average stock. So tough going. Again, a slow week for earnings, but tomorrow, what we call the most overrated people in government are front and center to tell us how they're the economy when they move a quarter point up or down.

Hopefully, Warsh, if he's just a little better than Powell, I'll be a happy guy. As always, you can email me. at GaryKee.com or G-Callbaum at callbom.com. We do webcasts every night for our peep sometimes two a day. You have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise I'll be on Varney tomorrow, 9 a.m. hour of Fox Business. Check it out. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.