Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Pivotal Moments [06.17.2025]
Episode Date: June 17, 2025https://garykaltbaum.com/...
Transcript
Discussion (0)
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Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk
Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary
Carlbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen,
happy that you are listening. It would be the 17th of June, 2025. Hope you're having a good day.
In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.
We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, possible wars, tariffs, you name it, we cover it.
Debt and deficits and big, beautiful bills.
Again, we will cover it without any agenda, ulterior motive or bias.
And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post on our Twitter feed, which is now.
We'll post it on the podcast apps.
And if you'd like to email me, all you've got to do is be nice.
We'll be nice back, no matter what.
Unless you like Hamas, then we've got a problem.
You get the point.
Ladies and gentlemen, there's been pivotal moments in time.
As you know, 9-11.
COVID.
The financial system almost melting down.
the Iraq war, I think we're at some sort of a pivotal moment now.
Don't know what the outcome is going to be, but in case you don't know,
the president of the United States, Donald Trump, has pretty much telegraphed,
and of course that can change, but he's pretty much telegraphed of using the United States
and knocking the hell out of Iran in their nuclear ambitions.
I don't know what form.
You know, they call them bunker busters.
We'll see how it plays out.
I'm a little bit perplexed why he would telegraph moves.
I would always thought if you're going to do something when it comes to war attacking,
you should shut up, but he's running the show.
and I say pivotal moments because it's a pivotal movement.
You don't know who takes what up, what side by whom.
I just want to give you some warnings, ladies and gentlemen, about some pundits in this country,
and I'm not going to name names.
You can go figure it out.
It's pretty easy.
they're a pundits.
Just remember, these people are just actors and actresses.
They will find a moment in time and try to figure out, ooh,
if I take this stance, will I get a million followers or 100,000?
Maybe I should take the exact opposite.
You get my point?
You have people right now that called for the annihilation of Iran,
and their nuclear in the past, but now say that Trump is a neocon and a war monger.
No, really, really.
You have people that have backed Israel with a fervor.
Israel's now a part-time.
And I can go on and on.
Be careful.
Deal in facts.
I've always been amazed how so many people are fans of people that have opinions,
Have your own opinions.
I say that even about me.
I get to give you my opinion on radio and TV,
but you should get your own opinions.
I've been wrong.
It's the way it is.
Anyway, I think we're at a pivotal moment.
For markets, well, let me throw some things at you.
Go look up the straight of Hormuz, H-O-R-M-U-Z.
It is in partnership owned by Iran.
I think, oh, my.
maybe a couple others.
It is a huge percentage of oil and natural gas
that goes through that nine mile wide straight.
And there's been little rumblings of Iran,
if attacked, even worse, is going to do something in there.
And I got news for you.
If that straight is damaged,
or an inability to get through, oil prices will spike a bunch.
But China gets a ton of their oil from there, and China, they don't want China pissed off.
So I'm not so sure they will, but you never know when people are desperate.
So we'll see how it plays out.
We live in interesting times.
You can decide on your own opinion, what you think is right, what you think is wrong.
We are spectators. I am not in the White House. We'll just keep fingers crossed that it works out well.
But man, oh man, we have been saying this is the most news-driven markets we have seen in ages.
And boy, oh, boy, that continues. If it ain't tariffs, it's war. If it ain't war, it's tariffs.
And the big, beautiful bill, which, by the way, looks stalled right now, which means,
makes your host happy because it has to be fixed because you have been conned by the Republican
party about what's in the bill.
They have the Office of Management Budget Director go on TV and have the nerve to tell you
the bill cuts deficits.
Oh yeah, cuts the deficits 1.6 from $22 trillion that it's going to go up in the next 10 years.
only in Washington's D.C.
can you lie out your arse?
Well, you fill in the blank.
Okay.
As we promise,
and people like it,
we do markets out of the get-go,
but today we needed to talk a little bit more
about the ongoings out there.
The Dow was down 299,
S&P 50, NASDAQ-180,
NASDAQ 100-218,
Transports 213,
advanced declines 12 to 30 on the NASDAQ, 13 to 28 on the New York.
So it was a rough day, and let me be clear.
It is my impression and belief today had to do with the threat
that the president has been putting out
in attacking or helping,
or helping Israel in dealing with Iran.
Simple as that.
You can go look on, I don't have true social,
but everything he puts on true social hits Twitter.
I am going to withhold comment on some of the things he puts out.
You know, he's President Trump,
and he definitely has his way.
again, I don't understand why you would telegraph things.
There's also an Israeli officials are putting out that the U.S. could enter the war against Iran as early as tonight.
And what does that mean? I do not know.
just a rough day for the market.
What was up today, oil prices, of course, were up $3,
but oil stocks weren't up that much.
Defense stocks bounced, and then there's a lot of red.
And then there's a lot of red.
Let me throw a few other things out to you.
As you know, we every now and then will do our little hundred stock test.
what if the market was only 100 stocks and 100 of them were in definable uptrends and you assume we know what a definable uptrend is
well that means you're in a bull market well what happens if 50 of them stop going up and start going
down well they'll offset the 50 that keep going up and you pretty much have a market that's flattening
By the way, we're assuming they're all equal.
1% each.
And then what if the 50 that go up flatten out and the 50 that are going down keep going down?
Well, then the market's getting in trouble.
And of course, if the 100 go down trouble.
We're just letting you know the ice is getting a little bit thinner out there.
You know what that means?
If there were 100 stocks in uptrends, let's just call it 20, are no longer in uptrends and are turning down.
I'm just giving out a number.
It's just an example that it's getting a little rougher out there.
Up next, we'll continue with that.
And much more.
I'm Gary.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
You're listening to.
Hey, this promises to be fun.
Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality programming.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It doesn't get better than this.
So, not a biggie.
Little corrections happen.
Pullbacks happen.
And of course, when the market loses momentum, weaker stocks will get
weaker quickly, quickly, and you'll lose a few things. I just want to make note of a few important
things. Well, some important, some not. We pride ourselves in knowing what bare markets look
like and have you avoid them. And what we do on this show is say, we don't tell you what to do.
We don't tell you to buy, sell shorter cover. We're just letting you know, this is an avoid for us.
One of those areas, solar stocks.
And of course, there's a lot of government thingabobs with government stocks like solar.
What we mean by that is, oh, you get money for this, for that, and you get subsidies and for this for that.
Well, this administration gave the middle finger to solar stocks.
And I can tell you that end-face energy down 24% today.
First, solar was down 18% today.
Something called Sun Run down 40% today.
Solar Edge, 33% today.
And as you know, we have been on a voids for solars.
I mean, we haven't been off a void in solar since 23.
Are you ready?
And this is what we mean when we mean,
when we do the little sarcasm on this show and say, yeah, just think long term.
Solar Edge in 23 was $313.13.
That's not even the high.
I'm just giving you we're topped out.
It's $16.
First solar was $306.
June of 24 a year later, it's $143.
End phase hit $340.20.22. It's $35 today.
Yeah, just think long term. So we're just letting you know, solars?
No, thank you. We stand fast on the avoid of solar.
Homebuilders. What have we been telling you about home builders?
simply avoid
the
XHB
the Home Builder Select
Index
ETF 126 in
November
it's 93 today
it's only about
26 27%
by my rusty
abacus
but still 2627
percent
you've only had one little
tease to the upside
during that time
and then you got Lenore
was up on earning
today hit a high of 114, closed at 104 and change. That stock's gone from 186 at the high last
September, 104 today. And by the way, this is probably the most well-run homebuilding company
out there. But the industry has its problems. We still believe the home builders are a voids.
Retail. There have been a few that are strong, but on the whole, we have been.
telling you you just you know avoid the most of the retail and boy oh boy have they blasted them
man oh man abacrombie and fitch was almost 200 a year ago it's 75 today a best buy 103 to 69
I just noticed lows
near New Yearly Lows
Matter of fact
Within 8 cents
287 to 212
Was 287 last October
Lowe's
Which always has me looking at Home Depot
Which is in the Dow
439 to 348
So we're just making a point
We really haven't had to do this too much lately
Because there's been enough the other way
But we're just letting you know
you'll lose in a little momentum near term.
Not 100% sure, and there's some cause and effect going on.
I mean, wars and tariffs and big beautiful bills and, you know, changing of minds.
So just letting you know, we're just feeling a little loss of momentum.
And as I go through my screens, I find more.
maybe insurance stocks looking a little topping out here is that potential i noticed the uh consumer
staples a bunch of them in trouble you know the food uh beverage not tobacco tobacco stocks are
strong i got to tell you who spoke cigarettes these days i don't think i know really anybody
who smoke cigarettes but i got news for you philip morris is still doing 40 billion in revenues
The spin-off, what is that, Altria Group, 25 billion in revenues.
Do you still smoke cigarettes?
Do you know I smoke one cigarette in my life?
And I was coughing up and almost vomiting.
I was trying to impress a girl when I think I was 16 years old.
And when I was, I was like, I ain't doing that crap no more.
Anyway
Just letting you know tobacco stocks are just strong
Really?
Airlines
Avoid
It's the best way I can put it
Avoid
And now that oil prices have been going north
Doubly avoid
I mean there are some stocks that have just been beaten up
In the airline industry
And by the way they were strong
They were strong from
August of last year up until
December. Delta's gone
from 70 to 47.
So we're just making
a little bit of a point today because we
really haven't had to that much.
Yeah, we're finding.
And I think it's a combination
of the oil prices and
the most news-driven
environment
we have ever seen.
And by the way, part of that
is the unbelievable transparency
of Trump.
Do you know we, I don't think there were weeks and weeks.
We didn't even see Biden.
And if we did see him, he was on the beach.
Or he was just walking around, never said a word, never held any press conferences.
Trump is out there every day.
If I had to give him credit for some, boy, oh boy.
If I was president, I'm not so sure I'd be out there as much as him.
But God bless.
He likes doing that.
He did leave the G7 meeting.
They just came out of a big security meeting for two hours, and that's the one where they don't leak anything out of that.
But Israeli Channel 12 is coming out and saying they think there's a thing may be tonight.
We'll see.
Up next, more on the markets, news of the day.
This is the one only investors' edge.
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If you ever printed out directions and hoped you didn't miss a turn, it may be time for you to screen for colon cancer.
Luckily, things are a lot easier these days, even screening for colon cancer.
When caught early, colon cancer is treatable in nine out of ten people.
With more options than ever, it's key to start screening at 45 if you are at average risk.
The coliard test is non-invasive, requires no special prep or time off, and it ships right to your door,
so you can use it in the privacy of your own home.
With just three simple steps, setup, sample, and ship, completing your colagard test is easier
than finding the right track on your mixtape.
If you're 45 or older, then at average risk, ask your doctor about the coliagard test
available by prescription only. Learn more or request a prescription at colagard.com slash podcast.
Do not use the colagard products if you have had adenomas, which are a type of colon polyp that can
sometimes become cancer, inflammatory bowel disease or other hereditary syndromes, a personal
or first-degree family history of colorectal cancer, or a positive result from another colon cancer
screening method within that test's recommended screening interval. Colagard results should be
interpreted with caution. A positive test result does not confirm the presence of cancer.
Patients with a positive test result should be referred for a colonoscopy. A negative test result
does not confirm the absence of cancer.
Patients with a negative test results should discuss with their doctor
when they need to be tested again.
False positives and false negative results can occur.
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I know I don't.
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We're listening to America is talking.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with Dad.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
You know, there are certain things that drive a person.
Sometimes there's a hot button that hits you.
You know, you always read stories about people.
Oh, the light bulb went off in the head.
The Amazon CEO.
Let me read to you.
He wrote this to the employees.
employees of Amazon.
Today we have over 1,000 generative AI services and applications in progress or built,
but at our scale, that's a small fraction of what we will ultimately build.
We're going to lead in further in the coming months.
We're going to make it much easier to build agents and then build or partner on several
new agents across all our business units and G and A areas.
As we roll out more generative AI and agents to change the way our work is done, we will need fewer people doing some of the jobs that are being done today, but more people doing other types of jobs.
It's hard to know exactly where this nets out over time, but in the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce as we get efficiency gains from using AI extensively across the company.
as we go through this transformation together, be curious about AI.
Educate yourself.
Attend workshops and take trainings.
Use an experiment with AI whenever you can participate in your team's brainstorms
to figure out how to invent for our customers more quickly and expansively
and how to get more done with scrappier teams.
When I first started Amazon in 1997 as assistant,
project manager. I worked on leaner teams that got a lot done quickly and where I could have
substantial impact. We didn't have tools resembling anything like generative AI, but we had
broad remits, high ambition and saw the opportunity to improve and invent so many customer
experiences. Fast forward 28 years and the most transformative technology since the internet
is here. Those who embrace this change become conversant in the
AI, help us build and improve our AI capabilities internally and deliver for customers will be well positioned to have high impact and help us reinvent the company.
You know what I took from this?
First off, the guy started as an assistant product manager in 97 and in 2025.
He's the freaking CEO.
I forgot the guy's name.
I think it was karyokities or something.
It was like a Greek name.
started out as a busboy at a hotel Disney,
the contemporary resort,
and then ended up running all the parks.
First thing I take away,
work hard at your job, kids.
Be better than the next person.
But you know what else?
Do you know what else?
He says, be curious about AI.
Educate yourself, attend workshops, and take trainings.
guess what Gary's going to do?
You damn straight.
I've been learning about AI,
but I'm going to believe this CEO of Amazon
that those who really know it and embrace it,
I'm going to learn everything about it.
You know me, I've told you this before.
When I get on top of something, I get on top of it.
Remember the Iraq war?
That stupid moronically run war?
By the way, I had nothing against them going into the Iraq war.
And by the way, the Democrats want some bunch of scumbags.
Most of them were all for it.
And they only turned after Bush didn't know how to run the war with Rumsfeld.
I learned everything about the different groups and tribes over there, the Prismurga and all them.
I knew more about what's going on in Iraq than Bush and Rumsfeld at the time.
Anyway, that's what I'm going to do with AI.
And I'm not so sure it's going to be that easy, but I'm going to find out.
And if I can help you guys out with it also, I'll be glad to.
I've been reading up about it, but around the edges.
I have an understanding, but I don't think anybody knows what the real outcome is going to be going forward.
And I will tell you, they're doubters.
There are a bunch of doubters out there that think, boy, everything that's out there is already out there.
We'll see.
Anyway, I just wanted to read that to you from Amazon CEO.
It moved me.
Sometimes the little things move me.
Just like, I believe it was Roger Storback that taught me.
That was the first book I ever read on business.
I'm not sure if it was him or somebody else.
Always write down a things to do list for your every day
and make sure you get it all done.
I think it was Roger Storback.
If not, it was somebody else.
And, of course, how to make friends
and influence people. Very important book.
Made sure my sons read that book.
And I try to tell them a few things.
Number one, learn people's first names.
People love being called by their first names.
Always important.
Treat the janitor better than the CEO.
Always important. Remember I've done that with you guys a lot.
The waiter, the waitress, the bus boy, they're not been.
Ethiopia. You're not getting your food without them. Then I clean the dishes without them. Just remember
all that. Anyway, just some of the little things. And treat people nice. Unless they like Hamas,
then you kick them in the teeth. So a little bit of this and a little bit of that today.
But the bigger for me got some deterioration in the market here. And I don't think it's a big deal.
The fact is we're back near the highs. And that's the big.
where resistance could come in, but we want to make sure it does not worsen. So we'll stay on top of it.
And of course, we will not own stocks in bare markets. So anything that breaks down and starts
heading the wrong way, see ya. And of course, anything that gaps down, lowers the numbers.
Recent Lululemon. Boy, they got some issues, Lulu Lemon. By the way, think long term. That
Stocks gone from 423 to 235 since January.
I will visit a couple of those stores in the next week or so just to get a feel for what's going on.
But their sales decelerating year over year.
That is not going to help.
And as I told you, I think there's a lot of price consciousness going on now.
A lot of price consciousness.
Yehu charges too much, just letting you know.
I think there's a little bit of that.
going on right now. Bitcoin may be topping out also near term. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe. Not 100%.
But maybe possibly along those lines. Silver. Gapped up again today. Another new yearly high.
Must tell you that. Gold is not at a new yearly high. Gold has been much stronger, but gold still acts fine.
The gold miners, act fine.
So gold and silver, act fine.
Apple, bear market.
You know, when we talk about classic bare market roadmaps,
Apple's been tracing out of classic bear market roadmap since mid-February.
Classic, classic, just letting you know.
Oh, and we didn't tell you to buy sell short a cover.
We're just letting you know it's in a sense.
its own private bear market, while other things have been doing much better.
So a lot of jello moving on the plate kids.
What's next?
Don't know.
But we'll stay in touch.
But think a few things in your mind.
If oil prices keep going up, what does that affect?
I don't want to own airlines or cruise lines.
Think about that.
Because of how much oil.
they use, that cuts right into profits if not hedged.
Little things like that.
And then the home builders, man, oh man.
Not a good place to be right now.
Fantasy lane prices have been coming down around the United States.
There's a few pockets that are real strong, but fantasy land coming down.
It's where people that bought a house for 500,000, three years ago were putting it up for
1.2 and think they can get it. And some get lucky. Next up, this that and the other thing,
and whatever else. I'm Gary. This is the one known investor's edge. This message is brought to you by
Kola Guard. If you ever printed out directions and hoped you didn't miss a turn, it may be time for
you to screen for colon cancer. Luckily, things are a lot easier these days, even screening for
colon cancer. When caught early, colon cancer is treatable in nine out of ten people. With more
options than ever, it's key to start screening at 45 if you are at average rate.
risk. The Colagard test is non-invasive, requires no special prep or time off, and it ships right to your
door, so you can use it in the privacy of your own home. With just three simple steps, set up, sample,
and ship, completing your Colagard test is easier than finding the right track on your mixtape.
If you're 45 or older, and at average risk, ask your doctor about the Colagard test,
available by prescription only. Learn more or request a prescription at colagard.com slash podcast.
Do not use the Colagard products if you have had adenomas, which are a type of colon
polyp that can sometimes become cancer. Inflammatory bowel disease or other hereditary
syndromes, a personal or first-degree family history of colorectal cancer, or a positive result
from another colon cancer screening method within that test's recommended screening interval.
Coligard results should be interpreted with caution. A positive test result does not confirm
the presence of cancer. Patients with a positive test result should be referred for a
colonoscopy. A negative test result does not confirm the absence of cancer. Patients with a
negative test result should discuss with their doctor when they need to be tested again. False positives
and false negative results can occur. Do you still trust the corporate media? I know I don't. Get the
Real Facts, the inside story behind the scenes in the Senate and the White House and the U.S. Supreme Court.
Subscribe to Verdict with Ted Cruz on the Iheart Radio app by clicking the attached link today.
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You're listening to.
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In the Wester's Edge.
With Gary Culpa.
You know, I don't know if this happens to you.
I'm getting a bunch of things
that I'm being charged for
that I don't know that I signed up for
I'm getting things
from something called Google Workspace
that I'm paying for
I don't remember signing up for a Google
workspace
you ever any heard of that
I'm going to have to look into it all I know is I'm getting
$20 charges on that
I get these little charges from Apple too
I don't remember signing up
let me tell you
I think there's a lot of that crap going on.
Man, oh man.
Tamar's the Fed.
The expectation is he's going to keep rates exactly where they are.
And by the way, if he was going to lower rates,
you can blame the president for him not lowering rates.
Do you know why?
A big part of the Fed is that wanting to stay independent,
and if they lower rates, they're going to be looking to look like they are
not independent because the president doesn't shut his mouth on the Fed.
Got a lower rates, got a lower rates, point lower, point lower, point lower.
I've been telling them, tell him to stop saying that.
And then maybe a lower rates, which will mean nothing.
President doesn't have that right.
He's wrong.
The fact is, if he lowers rates on the short end, the long end may go up and that'll
hurt the economy. When the Fed came from five and a quarter down to four and a quarter on the
little Fed funds rates, you can look up what Fed funds rates are. Ten year yield spike
higher. And that's your mortgages and a lot of your loans that are tied to that 10 year yield.
Anyway, that's tomorrow. And unfortunately, he's going to have another one of the stupid press
conferences. I haven't watched one. You know why? You don't say anything.
blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
And the questions are even worse.
So that'll be the Fed Wednesday.
Thursday is June 10th.
The market is closed.
I'm still waiting for them to close the market the day after the Super Bowl.
They keep threatening that.
And then we'll head into July, and you know what July is, right?
Earning season again.
And I think earnings will be fine.
Just so you know, the economy, according to GDP,
is fine this second quarter.
It's picked off the negatives of the first quarter,
and that was on imports and exports.
So the expectation is like 2 and a half, 3%,
which is a good number.
But after that, we'll see.
As I have told you, I promise you.
I can't do that.
I can't promise.
It is my opinion
that if we will have economic strife,
the market will know it,
it'll crap out beforehand.
Just remember when the market was crumbling because of those tariffs,
it's because the economy would have crumbled if those tariffs stayed in place.
Just letting you know, the economy would have crumbled.
If Liberation Day tariffs stayed in place,
if the 145% tariffs on China stayed in place,
that's a promise.
Small businesses would have gone out of business.
big businesses would decide to eat it or charge the customer by the way i believe it's walmart that
is uh raising prices on a few things the whole big inflation though rate of inflation is lower and that's
good but now with oil prices spike and higher if they stay up uh that'll affect things but total inflation
is still up then i mean what i mean by that is prices just go in the supermarket the chips the party
bags are now the size of the regular
bags the way they used to be.
But at the same prices,
the Hershey's, the little Hershey's,
the big bag, used to be
1099, it's 1599
now. And I can
go on and on.
So prices are still up there.
Well, they come down, beats the hell out of me.
If the Fed wanted
a lower rates tomorrow, they could.
You know how I'll tell you when they shouldn't do
something? If he wanted a lower
quarter point, that'd be fine.
not going to hurt anything, I wouldn't go a half.
Just remember what we've told you.
Jay Powell doesn't matter.
He only mattered when he was printing to $9 trillion
and distorting the hell out of everything.
And then, of course, creating the inflation,
and then the dummy never saw it coming
and said it was transitory and that had to play catch-up.
You know, he's another person that is lucky.
He has us.
Just remember all these presidents with these stupid moves
and these morons with our debt and deficits,
they're just lucky they got us.
We do all the heavy lifting and all they do is screw us.
Every one of them.
Almost every one of them.
37 trillion of debt says so.
All in all, though, let me repeat.
Getting a little bit of deterioration here.
Not a ton.
A little bit more.
Still would avoid the home builders, a lot of the retail.
The airlines, the rails and truckers never got going.
The bull market right now is gold, silver.
Oil is more of a recovery.
Semiconductors have been really good.
They had to pull back today because of the market.
Just letting you know, a little bit of deterioration.
If it worsens, we'll be all over.
you. Oh, that's right. The solar's also. One added note, remember we told you how foreign markets have
been better than ours? Well, they still are on relative basis. I'm seeing the foreign markets
topping out a little bit here. So that too. That'll say, we'll see what happens tonight. There's
rumors about us doing, we'll see. Anyway, have a great evening, drive carefully. When you get home,
don't do like we do. Very simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will be well. Always a pleasure you listening.
Have a good night, everybody. Bye-bye.
This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in
contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.
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