Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Powell screws up again [12.18.2024]

Episode Date: December 18, 2024

garykaltbaum.com

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by your food. store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,

your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. And maybe you won't be happy that you are listening. But we are here to tell you exactly what goes on on a daily basis. This is serious talk, Investor's Edge, on you and everything that affects you. We will do markets. We will do markets. And we will do more markets today. Let me state for the record the final numbers on the day.

as soon as I tell you, if you do not hear this show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com, we'll also post it our Twitter feed. And if you don't follow us on Twitter, which is X, just follow us, email us, just be nice. The final number today, the Dow was down 1123 points. I'll explain in a minute. The S&P down 178 points. The NASDAQ down 716 points. The NASDAQ 100 down 791 points. The transports down 454 points.

The SOX down 198 points and it was up early. Advanced declines 410 up. 3873 down on the New York, 546 up 3628 down on the NASDAQ. It was a horrific day. Let me set the stage. Coming into today, you had deterioration in the market. And we told you what areas to avoid. We have been telling you,

Avoid the oils. Avoid the transports. The airlines were fine, but the rest. Avoid housing and housing related. Avoid consumer staples. Avoid all the commodities, copper, aluminum, steel, and the like. Insurance we told you was under pressure, offer the managed care.

And we told you to avoid drugs and drug stores. We told you to avoid a lot of the retail. Waste management. Hospitals. Economically sensitive names and we highlighted Caterpillar and United Rentals. We said to you yesterday,

kind of for the first time, the financials, that they were starting to get a little bit icky. And of course, the semiconductors for a long while, notwithstanding a few names that have been strong. But really good money flows to be had in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ, Big Tech, and the like. But things were getting narrower. That said, oh, gold miners,

and gold, and China, and solars. But as we stated, good pockets of strength in the NASDAQ types. We have also stated to you something of import. And I don't know how to do a, I'm going to try to explain it as best as I can. as you know, I am no fan of Jay Powell and the central bankers. We have told you a thousand times they caused the inflation by printing to $9 trillion, but never got the blame because it doesn't behoove anybody to blame a non-elected official. And of course, Joe Biden poured the gas on that. they told us, don't worry, everything's okay. Everything's fine. And then they had to change their

stance to transitory. And all hell broke loose as inflation skyrocketed. And then once they stopped the money printing, the rate of inflation came down but left a lot of prices up. Which takes us to the recent. Markets been strong. Had a big move because of the election to the upside. But recently, as the Fed, now listen carefully, I don't know if this is going to explain it perfectly. As the Fed has been lowering there, what is known as the Fed funds rate, which just basically is what banks pay to each other and lend to each other or a certain number, but also represents whether the central bank is easy or tight or tight or easy,

which has had had a marked effect on markets every now and then. And we have said to you often, very often, every time we're on TV, we have said the same thing. Every time we've said the same thing. Every time we've said the same thing, watch the 10-year yield. That's the free market in case you don't know. You have the central bank that has their little things, short-term rates and things like that, the Fed funds, but then there's the real market, the free market. And that is the bond market.

and there's a bond market for 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, 2-year, 1-year, and you can buy up these bonds or sell them on a daily basis, the free market. And as the Fed has been lowering their yield, the 10-year yield, the free market has been going up. In fact, the 10-year yield hit 3.6 percent in the 10-year yield hit 3.6 percent in the 10-year yield. September and is up to almost 4.5 now. So the Fed is lowering their rates, but the real free market is going higher. The market is yelling and screaming. The market is yelling and screaming. You're going too far. and now the 10-year yield is above the Fed at 4.5, the 10-year yields at 4.5. Well, why would that make the market get blasted today?

It's the same thing I have told you. When the market wakes up to how wrong they are and how they miss the mark, the most important financial man on earth, it gets pissed off. The inflation numbers have been ticking up not a lot, but enough, yet he still lowered rates. Now, why would he lower rates seeing the 10-year yields spiking higher? It's because, listen carefully, human nature, normally lowering of interest rates, the lowering of interest rates has been a best. backstop for the market has been a good thing for the market, except when they get behind the curve.

You ever hear those words behind the curve? I've mentioned them plenty. When inflation was spiking and they were at zero percent behind the curve. When interest rates were going higher, real rates and they stayed at zero behind the curve. And they had to play catch up. and they went up to 5% and now they're on their way down actually 5 and a quarter but the rest of the market is saying something else

and they're not listening now I did not watch him today I have never I've hardly watched his press conferences I have been told he looked shaken I gathered he was watching the stock market up next we'll continue

We'll try to explain. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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My one advice to that, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. for example. If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today, with the goal of being 70% more productive, so we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it.

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to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.

And all of those things are not something that. generally if you have a healthy gut you should be living with so that's when we deep dive we deep dive into your medication we deep dive into your OTC medication and then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change here the full conversation plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the script a podcast from CVS pharmacy and iHeart radio listen now wherever you get your podcasts OnDEC is built to back small businesses like yours.

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and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So without naming names,

one of my good buddies writes to me, 43 years of doing this professionally, I've never seen a more clueless Federal Reserve. Powell seemed shaken up during the press conference. bring back Volker. That's Paul Volker for many years ago. If your quarterback overthrows every receiver or underthrows them in a football game, you'll lose the game. He's missed the mark again and badly. Now, I will tell you, I expected him to lower rates today. I did not expect a trouncing in the market. But while the market got hit, the 10 years, yield went up over a... Imagine this. He lowered his rates a quarter point. Rates went up a full point, the real market. That is why I've stated a thousand times just watch the 10 year yield. That'll dictate policy. And that's what happened today. So all I can tell you, listen

carefully, I'm trying to, because I know it's a tough day. We have all. already told you about all the areas you should avoid. As I am doing my scams right now, as I do this show because I'm ambidextrose, by the way, that's from Archie Bunker of all the family. They came after junk bonds today. They came after financials, which we told you yesterday the first time we're getting a little bit iffy and then anything sticking they were just coming after it today. Mid caps, small caps, big caps, mega caps, the strongest names, the weakest names.

And that's the story. I have absolutely no clue what happens tomorrow. What I do know is the areas that were already in bad shape worsened. And the rest of the market had a, what I would call a body blow. Does this mean we're headed for a bigger drop? I don't know. But as I do my scans, a lot of things turned down. let me repeat, I have absolutely no clue what happens tomorrow. For all I know, they bounce it.

And very often, the market will do a little bit of the opposite of what it did on Fed Day. Just leave no doubt, the man should be fired. Nothing personal. He really does believe he's in some sort of control when, as a lot, we have told you time and time again. The economy is the 350 million of us, with about 150 million of us going to work every day, doing better for ourselves and our family, not a man that sits behind a desk with a computer and presses buttons to print money, and then I'm going to lower rates a quarter point. Time and time again, I have stated this. Time and time again, I have said they are too

powerful and they should not be this powerful. Time and time again, I have said, I don't know how we got to the point where one man can print $9 trillion and rig the whole freaking bond market, which he did during COVID days. And he did not have to. So that's the story. The market worsened today. I don't know about tomorrow. Odds favor, we got some work to do. The talk of, oh, a Christmas rally. Well, that didn't happen today. I wish I had better news.

But the most powerful financial man on earth, the market opened its eyes today that said, you're a dummy. Again, nothing personal. These are the people that are in charge of our country. And we've got to take them on, just like we took on Biden for four years. And as we also have stated to you, the first two months of this fiscal year running over $300 billion deficits, which means this year we're going to go towards $4 trillion deficits. and he was out two days ago saying what a wonderful job he has done with the economy.

Yeah, sure, right. Now, does this market dropping have anything to do with that? I don't know. I don't try to rationalize everything. I just know today was Powlitis showing its face again. And that's that. Wish I had better news. I don't.

And as I'm doing more and more scans, just things turning down. And I'm making note more than anything of the financials that we're starting to get on the little bit of the uh-oh side. Interest rate sensitive stuff? Troublesome. The fact that I'm seeing the banks getting yonked, another area of trouble. And we'd avoid. And we'll see what tomorrow brings. I repeat, I don't know what happens tomorrow.

Things worsened today. A couple of other notes that we had said to you recently that there were no bears. Everybody's bullish, which is not the greatest thing. That was another point of contention. Does it worsen quickly? I don't know.

I don't know. but today was halacious. Haven't seen a day like this in quite the while. And we're going to get a new administration soon. Up next. Do I have any good news? That's up next on Investors Ed. Hello, hello.

I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Embatta. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we? always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes.

Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right? My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conta? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.

That is one that can run a very, very large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.

And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Cashflow crunch. On-Dex small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it.

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We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. I don't have highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

I don't have any good news in the market. Except the smiles will be wiped off the face of the Bulls. And everybody will get bearish very quickly. Maybe that's meaningful. Don't know. My job now, I'm scanning the heck out of it as I do the show. I would like to say at this moment it's time to all right, what's holding up best? But it didn't hold up much today.

Did not hold up much. I'm looking for anything that's green. And as I said to you, the advanced declines today were gross. But that's not new. We have been telling you about how the market's been weakening. But they really did the number today. they really did the number today. We'll be ready for anything.

Could this turn into a bare market? I don't know. But we do know how they potentially start and what the process is they go through. The biggest issue again is I believe they think lowering rates is the end-all be-all for markets but we have learned not when the market is saying otherwise. And in the middle of my screen, in the middle of my screen,

is something that says TNX, that's the 10-year yield. Close at 4.494 today, up 1.09 while he lowered his rate. under that I have the five-year yield up 1.32 today and under that's the FVX and then under that is the TYX 30-year yield which was up 0.80 and may I state for the record that dictated policy today

in a very big way what else happened today they got crypto Bitcoin got smacked Why? Because as we told you, we think it's like the NASDAQ. And as we stated, micro strategy down almost 40 bucks today. And just be careful of that. By the way, they just put it into the NASDAQ 100. Imagine the people at the NASDAQ 100 put a leveraged Bitcoin into their index. And when I say leverage, you know, there are ETFs that are three to one. I've seen days where it's true. I've seen days where it's. phrase five to one. Mostly three to one, I would suggest. And some days a two to one, but on the average three to one. And they put that in their index. Yikes. They didn't leave much as far as stones unturned. The strength came down. The weak worsened. The technical condition worsened.

could they just stop it you know we've had 10 down days though in a row in the Dow now i don't know by the way you know what the only Dow stock was up today what stock has been blasted recently united health why would that be up today because it dropped 130 dollars that's why so it rallied 14 i wouldn't look that as a success. You know what else was going on today, which was amazing? Quantum computing companies with no sales skyrocketed, even this market. I got one called QM, well, the symbol is QMCO, up 36 bucks today to $60. I'm not making that up. So there's a lot of froth going on too. By the way, they have sales that one, but lose a ton of money.

So there's been froth too. Tomorrow shall be another day. Let's hope they bounce the hell out of it. And you know what I'm really hoping? Not a word out of the mouths of these central bankers that think they're omnipotent, think they're in control. And remember what we have told you forever. They're not in control.

They're not the economy. and they always end up way behind. I probably should have watched that press conference today, but I think I've heard enough. So, I'll repeat, we'd avoid the oils, the gold miners and silver, solar's,

China, we'd avoid defense stocks. Even though the managed care stocks bounced today, we'd avoid them. and they can bounce more. We'd avoid drug stocks. We would avoid commodity stocks.

Steel, copper, aluminum, and that type of crap. Rails and truckers and the FedEx UPS types. We would avoid insurance, which really topped out with United Health in a big way. We would avoid economically sensitive stuff. That's construction slash building, slash machinery, slash materials. And by the way, if you go look at the XLB, holy crap. Most of the semis, by the way, this is all before today.

Most of the semis. And by the way, they were strong early. And I would now have to state, for the record, a lot of the financials, though, I'm going to have to do. a double take tonight, but they turned down today. Big biotech, waste management, and there's not many in that group, a lot of the medical slash healthcare, and if you go look at the XLV, you'll know what I'm talking about. You know, one I have not mentioned, I should have been, real estate stocks, real estate stocks I actually haven't mentioned those

I'd avoid them mortgage stocks home builders except for the real estate I may have mentioned real estate before all these areas we have mentioned to you already as a voids it just got worse today

and as I'm doing my scans right now again I'm pressing buttons with one hand and speaking with the mouth. Let's hope they can bounce this. I don't know. In the aftermarket, we're down a little bit. It was down worse and we're bouncing right now, but they were not too keen today. I told my peeps will probably have a longer webcast tonight. Because as I'm looking at things, man, oh man, especially regional banks, they came after them. We'll keep you informed. Small and midcaps came in hard today.

Real hard. The bigger caps that have been doing so well were not immune. Tesla dropped 40 some odd points. Keep in mind it rallied up like 100 and something. That's an example. Meta down 20. Netflix down 30. 30. Yeah, you know, I'm reading this off to you and saying, damn, if anything changes,

we'll let you know. Up next, we'll think of something. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Gambata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes.

Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right? My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Kondo? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.

That is one that can run a very, very, very. large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola,

who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more

than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Cashflow Crunch. OnDex, small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank.

OnDec does not lend in North Dakota, all loans an amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready. Action! In The Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa.

You know, I am... Hey, yo. What day's today? Wednesday? Yeah, Wednesday. Oh, let's see. I did not work out this morning because I had blood taken today. Once a year.

I'm setting up for my once a year checkup. But I have already done 10,000 steps jogging whatever, walking fast. incline and tonight I will do legs I will go to my gym do squats and leg curls or extensions got to get them quads happy and I'll probably do 15 sets because your Hansman buff toast is getting back never got out of real shape but man those bad back spasm sent me back. And I just wanted to take my time to get back through it. And so far, so damn good. And my advice to every single one of you, because I got to tell you, I meet a lot of people in my little, you know, life that I have, got to get in shape. Because as you get older,

it gets so much tougher. Your metabolism is slower. It's tougher to work things off. And, you know, every now and then, you know, I don't go out often. You know, I'm like a little homebody with my dog Winston and my wife. A lot of people drink a lot of alcohol, man. That's a bad crap, man. That should be in moderation. This year is a big year for me in drinking alcohol. I've had seven drinks this year. Last year, I think I had eight. I may have one going into the end of the year. I'm not sure. And I got to tell you, walking is great. Every 20 steps is a calorie. I don't know if you know that.

Every 20 steps. I learned all this. Anyway, that is your exercise portion of your show today. Anything going on in the news? Well, the Republican Party just passed a bill or I guess they got to do so they call it a continuing resolution

they promise once they're in power that there'll be no more of this and Doj, Elon and Vivek will take over okay sure anyway there's a lot of P-Oed people today that the speaker of the house funneled through the continuing resolution and our debts going higher and our deficits going higher. That was in the news today. Though I do have faith that Elon and Vivek will get the

like I know them, huh? I've never met them. I hope to. We'll get the job done, but it will still take the Republicans from Trump to the House and Senate to pass. And I can promise you the left's going to fight them big time. And you know what they're going to say. Oh, you're throwing grandma off the cliff and you don't care about the children and this, that and the other thing. You know that's what they're going to do. Let me repeat. In the first two months of this fiscal year, Joe Biden's deficits, averaging $320 billion each month, which will take us to a nice little round $4 trillion by the end of the year if nothing is changed. By the way, their other BS, well, it's already been spent.

Yeah, they know what they're doing these people. let me repeat I don't think that was part of today in the market I believe today was Powellitis the illness we have had for a very long time and again he has gone too far this time the easy way I wish I had better news I don't I'm looking at aftermarket action with down a little bit, nothing bad. But it was a doozy today. It was a doozy. And I'm thinking to myself,

if I'm J. Powell, what am I doing now? Oh, he's on the, he's on a whatever, how many Fedheads are there? 15 people are on a Zoom right now. What the hell happened today? Well, they should be listening to this show because I know what happened today.

They don't listen to the markets. And the market's bit back today. That's all. The quarterback went 0 for 30 today. If anybody watched his press conference today, please email me. Let me know what your take was. I'd like to know about his demeanor as well as his answers.

actually I'll get his answers. Let me know his demeanor or anything that sticks out. And I hate even bringing this up. I don't want this guy to be of import, but he is. Any other big news that showed up today? Not that I think matters. Not that I think matters. Today the market was a sore thumb.

Oh, Senate Democrats introduced the bill to abolish the electoral college. to restore democracy. Did they forget Trump won the popular vote this time? The people that have saying that Trump's going to destroy democracy, looks like they're the culprits. All right, wish I had better news. Hopefully a better day tomorrow. I'll be on with Varney and company.

I believe the 11 o'clock hour Fox Business Network tomorrow. Check that out. And until then, have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise. Stay well, be well. Have a good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it.

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