Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Punch drunk! [12.19.2024]

Episode Date: December 19, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by your food. store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investors Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum,

your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you're listening. It's December 19th. It's Thursday. It's 2024. And in case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. Specifically right now, the markets. But of course, we'll do the economy, your job, your industry, the debt and the deficits, the election, the soon-to-be president, and whatever else I think matters as we move forward. Hope you're having a good day. If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

Melos posted on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you like to email me, all we ask you to do is be nice because we're always going to be nice back. Of course, unless you like Hamas, we move on. I have no idea what year it was, but many years ago, after being invited on Fox News to appear with Neil Cavuto, I got a call from Neil Cavuto. He had said to me that they enjoyed my work. And I remember his exact words.

They would like to solidify a relationship with me. And I became a Fox News business contributor. And amazingly, and I mean this, they keep re-upping me. Amazingly. they keep reupping me and to this day I'm a Fox News business contributor

I found out this morning Neil is moving on after 28 years with Fox he is moving on I have absolutely no clue what he's doing next but he's moving on just so you know my relationship with him

I've never had dinner with him I've never had a lunch. I've never had a breakfast. The only time I have seen him is in Fox News studios in Fox, either in the green room or in studio. I've appeared with him. I'm going to guess 500 times. I could be off a little to the less,

off a little bit to the more. He's been one of my inspirations. in case you don't know, you can go look it up, has been hit with more than a few bouts of health issues, and he beat them all, still has issues, and works as you know what off. He's always been nice, funny, brilliant, and most importantly, professionally, unbiased. He took a lot of crap from Trump and Trump people. I heard on Twitter today they was celebrating idiots. We have always said to you here we love our journalists just to be unbiased take on all comers. Hold the powerful to account whether they are an R or a D

and that's what he has done. When I catch a cold eye whine and complain, he's been hit with life-threatening illnesses. Never said a word. I am going to miss this man. Hopefully I can meet up with this man going forward. Obviously in a different setting. I have already been emailed who do I think is going to be and this and that,

and I have no idea. And that's the story. What I call the best thing, the business moving on after 28 years. And you will know about him if you go look at what his peers are saying about him on Twitter. Not the clowns. We loathe those in the tank. We wish Neil well.

big time well next I'm going in no particular order I have said to you in the past that we think we have a very good feel for things not because we know things but because we have a feel

for what's out there and how it's being presented as you know we were one of the few that every day came on here and said Trump was going to win and why and it was the exact reasons why. I think we're getting close to a hostage release by the scumbag murdering animals.

I have a decent feel for reporting. I'm just letting you know I would not be surprised if something happens in the next couple of weeks. And maybe it's because of a new president, I don't know. I think it would be partially based on Israel has kicked their terrorist asses, both in the south and in the north. But whatever the reason, and just so you know, I have no information, I just have a pretty decent feel out there. And boy, I hope I'm right. Boy, I hope I'm right.

next by the way what does that have to do with the markets and you and your money probably nothing next I am sure you have been hearing about the spending bill well

you know how we feel in the first two months of the fiscal year 25 our U.S. government is running a $624 billion deficit. Last I looked, that's $312 billion a month. Last I looked, if you extrapolate that out for 12 months, that's a $3.744 trillion deficit this year. And that doesn't include if interest rates go higher or the economy goes softer.

or the market tanks, less capital gains taxes. I don't pretend to be in the back rooms of the Republicans and the Democrats, but as usual, the Democrats are basically saying that Republicans, if they do what they do, you won't get your Social Security checks. It's a lie. This isn't going to run. That's not going to run. It's a lie.

Government never shuts down, just wanted to let you know. a few things will stop for a bit. So that's game on right now, which takes me to President Trump. You see, his enemies are the ones that kiss his butt and never says he's wrong. His friends are the ones who try to tell him, dude, what are you doing?

Well, we're going to do a little dude, what are you doing? He's going after Republicans today. He's blasting one of the best people in the Republican Party, Chip Roy, on his feed. This is nuts. This is nuts. You got the House, you got the Senate, you got the presidency, and you're going after the party. I'll finish it up and then the markets. And a lot of the markets.

This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

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That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Gambata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI,

coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have, have a legacy of building stuff. Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before.

Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right? My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point? with quantum. By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Hi, I'm Dr. J. Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with

pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health. with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat,

and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that, generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication.

And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Cashflow Crunch. On Dex, small business line of credit gives your business immediate access. access to funds, up to $200,000, right when you need it. Cover, seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today

at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota, all loans an amount subject to lender approval. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells. working you're listening to hey this promises to be fun investors edge the last bastion of quality programming with Gary cult

bomb it doesn't get better than this so and then you have Elon Musk going on Twitter and blasting the Republicans also what's the line about grabbing victory from the jaws of defeat

how about grabbing the feet from the jaws of victory Republicans have a bad habit of going after their own in public instead of in the back rooms and here we go again. We'll see how it plays out. You know how we feel.

The spending's got to stop. The growth of government has to stop. We'll see how it plays out. But I just want to let you know Trump is going after people in the Republican Party. I believe that's a mistake. Next, Mike Ron, I just want to point out, I just want to point out that Micron hit a high of 157 in June and recently hit a low of 84 rallied up to 114, backed off, was down almost $17 today back to 87.

So it's down about 40 some odd percent since June. We just want to point out into that rally, every analyst was raising targets and reiterating buys and putting strong buys on it. We just want you to remember a lot of the analysts are just price followers. And you need to be careful. It's just like some of these indices, the people that make the decisions on what goes into an indecs are price followers. They just took out Intel and put in Nvidia. Intel after it was blasted to smithereens, Nvidia after it was up 7 billion-fold. They took out Walgreens after it crashed.

They just put in micro-strategy into the NASDAQ1-Hod. even though it is just a Bitcoin hedge fund and leveraged after Bitcoin has a big move up. You all be careful. Next, I didn't want to use this woman's moniker because it's a very, I want to be careful here. I'm careful with this show. it's somewhat of a sexual moniker and she came out with her own meme coin it went to

drop 95% within hours she's getting her butt sued big time now off of being cute thinking oh I'm now famous for I'm not going to tell you what it is you'll figure it out yourselves. She's now being sued.

95% overnight because I'm going to do a coin. Yeah. Just want to let you know because in the recent past they've been ramping up no sales

a bunch of stuff in quantum computing in drones in robotaxies, even though some of these companies have been public for 20 years and still have no sales. And it's not,

I'm just going to pull one up as I am doing this. Here you go. A no sales quantum encryption company, whatever that means, out of the UK, went from five

in early November to 41 yesterday. No sales. Just letting you know they're starting to kick them in the teeth. That was down 27% today. I have another one here that hit 64 yesterday and closed at 36 today.

Up from 5. And we always get a, ask, don't you have the urge? Here's one that went from 1 to 26 since November 1st. Never traded down 41% today. Still has a $1.8 billion market cap with no sales. We'll just repeat what we always say about these things. Number one, it's nothing personal. But most importantly, eventually, ultimately, everything goes back to where it came from

if they continue to have no sales. In the meantime, a bunch of them, as I said, Here's one that went from 1 to 27 since October. Seriously. 27fold. And has a $1.8 billion market cap today at $15 with no sales. It's been public since 2008 and still has no sales. When they brought it out in 2008, it was $350, which is even more ridiculous.

So be careful. Big money is lost when you don't think. If you can catch one, God bless you. I hope you do. Don't catch the downside. Next, 10-year yield 4.57 today, a 0.76.7. Lowers his Fed funds to 4.5 yesterday and the 10-year-old 4.57. My good buddy Jonathan Hodig was on TV, I didn't even know this. Since the Fed has started lowering rates, their rates, the five-year has gone from 3.4 to 4.4. How is this possible? I'll explain. And the markets didn't finish well. I'm Gary.

This is the one only investor's edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell. host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Mbata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM Research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing. Whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together.

It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature.

Right? Yeah. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with quantum? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script,

the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask. at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy.

And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts.

Cash flow crunch. OnDec's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing,

and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at ondeck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDEC or Celtic Bank. On deck does not lend in North Dakota, all loans an amount subject to lender approval. We're listening to America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Here's the story.

The market. The free market. Not Jay Powell. He is not the free market. The free market is demanding higher yields across the spectrum. Demanding as the Fed lowers their rates. The free market is always right. You got that?

How many times in the last three years have I said the Fed is behind the curve? Well, here they go again. and when that happens usually the markets get pissed off so there all this talk about the Fed the market got hit yesterday because the Fed said oh they're not going to lower rates as much as expected no the market got hit because the Fed did lower rates because the market doesn't want it

now I don't know what's behind the door what the reason is why yields keep going up while he keeps going down. But it is not a reach to say the market is mad that he is not fighting inflation anymore that may still be around. But also,

the market may be looking at the deficit numbers. As I said to you, it is sick. sickening that the Biden-Harris administration, and I put it on their backs, is running in the first two months of this fiscal year. $312 billion on average a month, which will take you the $3.744 trillion deficit this year, which is obscene, unimaginable numbers that nobody ever think would happen. And economics 101 states the more debt is out there, the higher the yield, the lenders would be demanding. And how do they demand?

Bonds sell off, yields go up. And there you have it. That's what's going on. And that's why today you had a good bounce early. and they sold it off into the close. To give you an example of what happened today, after the big drop yesterday, the Dow at one time today,

was up 450 points. At one time today, 42-787. That's 440. It finished up 15 points on the day. The NASDAQA,000, All important NASDAQ. At one time today hit 19623.

It was up 270. It finished down 20. The NASDAQ 100 early today was a 21413. Was up over 200. Finish down 98. And change. So after a big drop yesterday, the market had a chance to just bounce today, and they sold it into the clothes. As we always say, I have no clue what happens tomorrow.

We're just letting you know today they had a chance to at least have a decent bounce and had it up all day. And they sold it off into the clothes. That's all. And by the way, they did sell it off into the clothes. Tomorrow is Friday. Next week is three and a half days. The week after is three and a half days is I believe we're half day before Christmas and a half day before New Year's Day.

And I don't have much in the way of redeeming wonderfulness. in today's action. Wish I can tell you more. Oh, there were stocks up. There were things that bounced, but they finished poorly. And may I state for the record, they're still slamming

what we call economically sensitive names. What do we tell you about United Rentals? Down another 13 today. What's going on? That this stock has gone from 900 to 700, In about six weeks, all important company. Caterpillar again down today. And others. This is of note. Housing stocks slammed again today. Lenar reported market did not like. Lenar went from new yearly high in September to new yearly lows at the close today. Earnings down 22, revenues down nine. Roughed up. What do we do now? Well, it's kind of simple. We are just listing every day, stocks that have hold up best, holding moving averages, even going up, though there are hardly any new yearly highs now.

And at the close today, I'm showing 54 new yearly highs on the New York and NASDAQ, 606 new yearly lows, advanced declines with 1345 up 2913 down on New York 1692 up 2437 down on the NASDAQ so not a great day there and what did we tell you about Bitcoin we thought it was just market based at this point in time got smacked around again I don't even know where Bitcoin closed but I do know it hit 107,000 right so Bitcoin price at the close today 97 so it's down about 10,000 on its weight of 49 million as some girl said on TV that was sarcasm if anything changes we'll let you know but we got we're under pressure again today and the market had a pretty damn good chance to have a good bounce but those

higher rates not good news and may I state for the record on the 10-year yield, the high in May was late April, 4.737. Please don't go through that. And the high in October of 23 was 4.997. We're ways away from that. So, we'll see how it plays out. the way backing up we're not p.O. to Trump but going after the Republicans. We just think you do it behind closed doors. He's already talking about primarying or getting somebody to go against

somebody and you, I'm sorry, tigers should not eat their young. We'll see how that plays out. And do not forget, I am the biggest deficit hawk. I am the loudest when it comes to what has happened with the growth of government, size, reach, spending debt and deficits. I told you we cannot continue the trajectory of Biden Harris. Well, by the way, I hear vice president still, she's still vice president, right, is getting $20 million for a book. It pays to fail. That's the rumor today, 20 million bucks for a book. God bless that

Listen I believe in capitalism If there's demand your supply I'd like to have 20 million dollars To write a book Good on her What else The worst get worseer The good keep pulling in

Tomorrow's another day I gather if yield start backing down We'll stick a little bit of a rally here I don't see an end of the world like 21-22, but you never know. And certainly there's some areas that are already in bare markets. Up next, what else we got for you? What else? This is the one only investors' edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Embatta. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing.

At IBM research, what we always do is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology?

There will come a point when it will mature. Right? Yeah. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Kondo? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large. large problem.

To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,

who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomach ache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you

should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can put it. probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Cashflow Crunch. On-Dex small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds, up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inval. or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com.

Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. On Deck does not lend in North Dakota, all loans an amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In the investors' edge. with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. A little aftermarket. FedEx is up 25 bucks in the aftermarket. On 0% earnings growth and revenues falling a little less than 1%.

So no growth has it up 25 bucks and they lowered their guidance going forward. So what the heck's going on there? A down-and-out Dow stock beat estimates. I'm looking. 78 cents. The estimate was 63 versus a dollar three,

so the estimates were for earnings to be down like 40%. Instead, earnings are down only 21%. And the stock's up six bucks in the aftermarket to 83. I love these people in their guidance. Hey, just letting you know we're going to say estimates are down 40% and we're going to beat it and still be down 21%. Look how good we are. And that's it for earnings.

I think Carnival Cruise Lines reports tomorrow. That's about all I got for you. Oh, US Steel reported, and they reported earnings. below. That's down two bucks to 29 and change. And that's your aftermarket report for today. So let me repeat. I have no idea what happens tomorrow. Let me repeat. Market had a real chance to bounce decently today. They sold it off. Who's they? The institutions. Could it change tomorrow? sure. But yesterday's holding some sway. Dow was up 460, finish up 15. Nasdaq finished down. Was up to, what I say, 250, 260. Nasdaq 100 finished down pretty decently. Bitcoin hit. Why? As I said, I think, you know, it's NASDAQ. Or somewhat of that. Anything sticking out good? Yeah, I got names. I got names that stick out pretty well.

By the way, Accenture and Darden restaurants gaped up today on earnings. Darden restaurants up $23 to $183 today. Symbol DRI. 10% earnings growth, 6% revenue. Not bad for a big company. Names that had been strong that came in, but I think on a relative basis, still strong. Amazon, Apple, Netflix. SAP,

Service Now Those are a few We're not advising buying, selling, shorting or covering, we're just letting you know on a relative basis MasterCard and Visa Two of the greatest bookies on earth acting pretty well

Versus other financials Not acting well Those are a few There's a few others Google I got to put Google in there I got to put Reddit in there Broadcom was down five today but

it just got really extended. We'll see how it goes. Am I in any mood to probe them right now? Hell no. But I can change my mind tomorrow. Why'd I say I don't think we're going into a bare market? Well, let me state for the record, there are areas in bare markets. You already know them. But as a whole, I'm just not so sure. Strength still in the airlines had a good day today.

hotels not bad not bad and anything above the 50 day and especially above the 21 day moving average there's your strength and as I said to is the market gets hit a little bit more there's fewer and fewer things

for me to worry about European markets the German dachs that has been pretty darn strong as of recent That's coming in a little bit, but not a biggie, but I will tell you that the UK and France acting very poorly. Yeah, Germany just pulling back right now, even though they're kind of in recession. Go figure. China, nothing happened there.

Brazil, forget about it. And I hear the Brazil currency is acting like the south end of a northbound jackass. Argentina stocks have been strong pulling back right now with everything else, but still on the strong side. Gold not happening, especially gold miners not happening. And as we said earlier, be very careful with the no sales crap. What I say before, one's down 40% and other one's down 27%. And you usually hear about them after they've made big moves. Markets are tough.

They're not easy. Don't make it tougher. Tesla was down four bucks today. was worse, was better. Still in the trees. That's another one of strength. But in the trees. Be careful of the trees.

The so-called holiday rally ain't happening just yet. Maybe it starts tomorrow. We'll advise. Be careful. Avoiding still oils. Defense. Manage Care United Health back down 10 bucks today.

A bunch of the retail. A bunch of the medicals like hospitals and, as I said, managed care and drugs. Definitely home builders. A bunch of the transports, though FedEx is going to open up nicely tomorrow. The commodity, steel, copper, aluminum and all that crap. Insurance stocks bounce today, but they're still... Eh? Consumer staples, food and beverage.

Financials under some pressure, not the end of the world, but... Definitely under some pressure. And a lot of them semiconductors. And now Micron, go bye-bye. Hoping for better tomorrow. We'll see how it plays out. Ladies and gentlemen, you have a great evening drive carefully. Tomorrow's Friday.

You know, I would be saying I should be on with Neil Cavuto tomorrow, the new one hour, but I'm not sure he's going to be on. I think today may be his last day. Anyway, have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise. Stay well, be well. Thank you. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive.

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