Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Putrid Monday

Episode Date: July 11, 2022

More Info At: http://garykaltbaum.comMore

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If you're 45 or older and at average risk, ask your doctor about the Colagard test, available by prescription only. Learn more or request a prescription at colagard.com slash podcast. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's 7-Eleven, 2022. So 7-11 and then double 11-22, which means absolutely nothing. And we thank you for being here. a great weekend. It is Monday. We have always lots to talk about. This is serious talk about

you and everything that affects you and your job and the economy and your money and all that crap in between. Seriously, all that crap in between. All right. Before the pleasantries, you know, we use the line in this bear market a lot. The line is, we hope you've been listening. So there's another thing that we told you that very simply, we hope you've been listening. And that's on Twitter. So here's how it went. Twitter stock topped out February of 21, 80 and three quarters. That's when a lot of bubbles started bursting.

We don't think Twitter was really the bursting of any bubble, except it. It was just one of those names that that was it, over. And of course, throughout the year, it went down up, down up until November when everything started to crumble. And October November saw stock after stock, sector after sector, which led to October 27th. And that was earnings. And the number sucked. and the stock had already topped out. There was no reason to own it.

And it went through a protracted bear market like so many other stocks. And then we had that counter-trend rally in March. And Twitter stock rallied up just like everything else. And then Elon Musk announced a buyout of Twitter

at $54 in charge. change on April 4th. Frankly, he should have done it on April Fool's Day. I digress. We simply told you if you own the stock, take the gift. We thought it was a gift. And we say we thought it was a gift because in the previous three quarters, Twitter's sales growth went from 74 to 37 to 22. Earnings were spotty at best. We call them all over the map, which calls into question, what are they doing over there? The stock gapped up on that Monday, closed around 50.

The next day hit 54 and a half. And then since had never seen that price. And we just said, take it. And as the days went, we had only two or three thoughts. The first thought was, we're in a bare market. This deal better get done. Or it's gone back where it came from. Number two, where are the other suitors?

You mean there's not one company, one platform, not one media, company that has any interest whatsoever? And the answer was no. And as the stock started to go lower in May, we asked again, where are the suitors? Because they can catch it on the cheap now. Not 54, they can probably catch it at 40. But no. And then the third thought, if this deal even gets done, it's going to be much lower than 54 bucks. if it gets done. And every day that went by was a worse day for the deal getting done. And then Elon Musk starts,

you know, we don't trust the numbers. We don't trust what's being said. We don't trust the company. And that was just telegraphing the eventuality that it was a goner. And on Friday, after the close, smart move, Elon Musk backs out of the deal.

And remember what we told you, that if there's no deal, this stock is $30. We told you that. Stock closed at $32.65 today, down $4.16. And now Twitter is suing him. I don't know. I keep hearing people saying,

oh, they have a, I don't know how they have a good case. How do you make somebody buy a company that person doesn't want to, especially when there's a breakup fee? And everybody gets to have a look at companies. Now, I'm told in the document something about due diligence. I don't care. Can't make anybody buy a company at a specific price. but leave no doubt it's going to be a pain in the arse for everybody involved especially Twitter

they've got to run a business so we were asked today what do you think about the stock here my answer is i don't know what we do know when we just put the pieces of the puzzle together the stock closed at thirty two dollars and sixty five cents today we're a suitors at thirty-five bucks, not 54, not 50, not 45, not 40. We're the suitors down here. Not one company speaking up. Not a media company, a social media company, whatever. We'll take a look, see at this company, and we think 35. You know, when Spirit Air, the frontier and Spirit Air, JetBlue came around trying to jump into the fray. There's nobody. Even at $32.67.

It's stunning. My answer is, I don't know. I'm not touching. Maybe somebody shows up. but I think this very much speaks for itself. The market has spoken. We hope you listened at the 50 to 54 level. We called it a gift.

We never understood the purchase in the first place. Now, what was also of interest today, which if you would have told me this, I would have thought you'd be lying. Elon Musk backing out of the deal, one would think that helps Tesla. And after the market on Friday, Tesla stock was up $20. And today, when they were opening, it was up $8 or $9. Stock finished down $49 today.

Tesla. So we don't know what that's saying. Maybe that's more of the market saying something. All I know is a crappy day all around. and I gather Mr. Musk now having to deal with either a billion dollars of a payment or a lot of lawyers' fees. I don't know at this level. I'm just letting you know what I'm doing, and that is I'm not touching. And the low of the year was $31.30.

cents. The NASDAQ went even lower than that, so I would suspect if no deal gets done this bad boys in the 20s. And still no suitors. Remember, we're big believers in market forces. Market forces, the ability of people to make decisions with their own money, not like the Fed who uses fake money, we're not going to buy any. If that changes, we'll let you know. But 63 million shares today, down 11% says a lot. That is your Twitter story. Up next, full market wrap, wasn't pretty. Much more.

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stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APU.org On eBay, every find has a story, like if you're looking for a vintage band tea, not just a tea, the band tea. From the last show your favorite band, played. You wore it everywhere. Then, your BFF started glaring it, which is cute, until they unfriended you and took it with them, which was not so cute. Anyway, now you're on eBay. And there it is, same T from the same tour. Still living in your memory, rent-free forever. See, the things you love have a way of finding their way back to you. But eBay isn't just forgetting whatever your ex-BFF stole back. It's also for that rare championship foul ball you caught

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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promise. It could be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum.

It doesn't get better than this. So let me tell you a few things that's going on outside of stock market, which did not have a good day. See, when I put in homes for sale where I live or in and around, and I've told you what we really look at. for is the high end because that's where things went quite the insane. I'm just letting you know that the amount of homes up for sale has skyrocketed, absolutely skyrocketed. And what I'm also starting to see is little drops in price. Here's one that dropped from 1.295 to 1.1.8 to 1.5 to 1.8 195 just a hundred grand here's one that dropped from one one one five oh four nine sing a lot of that i'm also seeing some pending that ain't getting done but every day that goes by there's a ton more

and i must also tell you and i just got this today and i really haven't looked at it but tampa florida Crap loads up for sale there also that were not up three months ago. Crap loads. So central Florida, Tampa, Florida, West Coast. I'm going to do more work this week on other areas. We're just letting you know, seller's market, drifting into buyers market. I say drifting because we still don't think price has become what we call accommodative to buyers. And what that simply means, it ain't can be buying until price keeps coming down.

And why would price keep coming down? Because price at certain levels just ain't getting sold. So sellers have to make a decision. Pull it off the market or lower the price. As one lowers the price, another one has to match, especially around the same community for the same type of house. That is how it works. So we're just letting you know a ton of homes are now for sale. and by the way this is not just areas of Florida

I have yet to look at Phoenix Scottsdale area but I'm getting emailed from people that listen as well as other areas I'm noticing New York City it is now buyer strike because buyers now know listen carefully if they wait

they'll get it cheaper That's how it works. That's the psychology of the move. Months ago, if I wait, crap, I'm going to be paying a higher price. I better buy it today. Now it's, I don't need to buy it today because they're going to come lower. Oh, and by the way, here's eight more homes for sale in the community I was looking at. I have just given you a short master class on supply and demand in the real estate market.

Where it stops, I have no clue. How far it goes, I have no clue. We shall be watching. I'm looking at Tampa. I'm just looking at one that went from $2.4 million down to $1,999 million. So that person recognized crap. This ain't selling for 2.4. And I don't know whether it went straight down 400,000,

or it happened over a couple of times. And guess what? The house down the block. That's smaller. That still has it for 2.2. Now is to come down to 1.99 to match that. Or lower. So there's your master class.

And let me repeat. where she stops I don't know here's another one that went from 2.3 to 1.9 million in Tampa I'm looking at Tampa right now in Windermere Florida this is another part of central Florida I can't believe I can't even get through how many houses are for sale

above a million I haven't even gone down to 750 yet and again we're not a lead us here we're just letting you know that's where the big moves were the Eiffel Tower moves That's where we want to measure. We will also look at all prices. Of course, the cheaper houses cannot move as much in price, duh, but in percentage it can.

So I just wanted to give that out to you. It is a combination of two things. The morons at the central banks with zero percent interest rates and rigging and manipulating things to where mortgages were free money. And now that's changed. though we're off the highs the 10 year had 3. Almost 3.5. It's now 299.

But the affordability part. You have to realize that at those highs, I don't want to use the artificial word because it's reality, but it came from rigged and manipulated rates. And unfortunately, it's what caused the 08. And that disaster. And we're not saying a disaster's coming.

we're not saying that we're just letting you know what we're seeing in the market which means a little more of the wealth effect will be in reverse as we move forward simple as that simple as that again a five-minute master class in real estate business and just so you know this goes for land commercial real estate offices you're name it. And of course, the office business has issues. New York City, I'm hearing, offices are, this is what I'm reading, 30% full, meaning they're still owned by these companies, the leases are there rented out, but they still have the hybrid thing going on. I got to wonder what that's going to mean for that business going forward. So just some food for thought as we start on this Monday. By the way, it sounds like we're dowered down in the mouth.

We're just talking to you about business cycles. They are good and they are bad. They are amazing and they are crappy. Our job is to measure them for ourselves and for you. Up next, speaking of crappy, today's market. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong.

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With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.org.org. On eBay, every find has a story.

Like if you're looking for a vintage band tea. Not just a tea. The band tea. From the last show your favorite band ever played. You wore it everywhere. Then your BFF started glaring it. Which was cute until they unfriended you and took it with them. Which was not so cute.

Anyway, now you're on eBay. And there it is. Same tea from the same tour. Still living in your memory, rent-free. forever. See? The things you love have a way of finding their way back to you. But eBay isn't just forgetting whatever your ex-BFF stole back. It's also for that rare championship foul ball you caught, then heroically gave to the kid next to you. And where else are you going to find your first car? The one you wish you'd never sold, but now, you finally get the chance to take back home. For good

this time. Shop eBay for millions of fines, each with a story. eBay. Things. People love. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And well, once again, to Investors Edge. Do not forget we're entering earnings season. I will tell you, well, Thursday, before the open, J.P. Morgan, Morgan, Stanley.

Friday before the open, Black Rock Bank of New York, Citigroup, PNC Bank, State Street Bank, U.S. Bank, U.S. Bank Corp, Wells Fargo, Progressive, and United Health in the Dow. That's this week. So there's not a ton this week. I will tell you also Delta reports, Fassanel, Pepsi's after the close today.

I don't know if they came out yet. So not a big week, but those financials. and they've been dead money, the financials. Simple reasons. Number one, they're in the investment business. Investment business sucks. They're in the raising money business, and I can tell you there's hardly been any IPOs, no more SPACs. Very tough to raise here.

The amount of trading has slowed also. And also when interest rates on the long end go up and on the long end come down, finally, and on the short end go up. There's their margins. So that's the issue there, and we'll see what they say, and we'll see how they react as usual, and we'll get a better understanding. And next week starts thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands of companies telling us what's going on and how it's going.

We'll just sit here and watch to see how the stocks react. Anyway, today's market wrap is brought to you by investment. That's Jim Moraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. It's proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. Well, the big story today, when the Dow got up about 20 points, the NASDAQ was still down, I think, about 150.

And as we've always taught you, we'd rather have the Dow down 200 in the NASDAQ flat. that is what is known as risk appetite. The Dow, as we have told you, in bare markets, always, always holds up better than the NASDAQ. Very simple because they're the biggest, most liquid, and in some cases the most boring names in history there. And there's also some things like a Procter & Gamble, a Johnson & Johnson, a Coca-Cola. So if we go into recession, their recession resistance, they'll, hold up better. A Verizon that's comatose. And I can go on and on. Today, the opposite. And as soon as the Dow started dropping again, because it was down early, the NASDAQ was down about 260 early,

when the Dow was down, when the Dow started dropping again, the NASDAQ started getting hit again. And it just wasn't a good day. What did change today, and I want you to listen to carefully. carefully. We had said to you, and we know our exact words, the only area that's showing the potential for a bottoming process were the Chinese stocks that trade on the exchanges here. We also go on to say, but how do you trust the Chinese government on so many facets? And the Chinese government is the government that actually took out a machete and cut these companies off at the hips with massive regulations and dictates this that and the other thing plus I don't know if you know this and look we're just reading two people get COVID in the city they shut it down well we don't rationalize price

Alibaba down 11 today to 109 by do down 9 today to 143 need I say The Internet, China, E-T-F-C-W-E-B was down 13% today. The K-W-E-B was down 7% today. So that move may have been aborted. Now, we're hearing rumors about lockdowns or more regulations. When all is said and done, we care about what traces out. that was a pretty bad day and not good for the market

when pretty much the only area I'm able to say to you has potentially been bottoming out and it goes by the wayside and it's technology bent well guess what market rap brought to you by it did I say it yet well I'm going to say it again investment dash models.com that's Jim Rohraback one of the great market timers no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market

with his proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models.com NASDAQ was down 262, NASDAQ 10265. The SOX down 64. Advanced declines on the NASDAQ, 1100 up 3,300 down. I'm using NASDAQ. Now, the Dow is still down 164.

It was down that much, then it was up 20, and then it drifted off at the end of the day. S&P down 45. Transports down 151. Advanced declines in New York, 12 up 28 down. sucked, really no new highs in the market. What was interesting today, oil prices came down a little bit, not much, but yields really came down a bunch. We were at 3-1, we're now at 299. So that's the 10-year,

and who knows what that means. And just a putre a day, you know, it was green today, Hershey's, Hormel, Kimberly Clark, Church and Dwight Clorox, that was green today. Not much else. And you know how we talk to you about, well, you got all these stocks that have been bought. We used the term bombed out. These companies that were leading into last year and then have just crashed 50, 70, 80 percent. And we've been saying to, you know, they're trying to stop going down. They're flatlining at some bottoms and some of them have moved off the lows. They were terrible today.

They got smoked today. So that was not good news. And remember how we told you, Google down 200. 60 and four days up 270 and four days remains in a bare market that down 74 today that's not good and we also mention also Tesla down 49 bucks when Musk is getting out from under now maybe there's some other thought process in there maybe just not a good day and we do not like when the Chinese stocks which were the only things that we had told you bottoming process potential. Now, there's still areas that are relatively strong that don't even know it's a bare market.

The discount dollar stores. Defensive. Some of the food and beverage. Defensive. Some medical. Defensive. Managed care. But as we said in our webcast and we said to you last week, why are no

sales biotechs at new yearly highs. We keep hearing everybody's bearish, but they're buying up biotechs with no sales. One of our other worries weeks ago was, why does GameStop go up every up day? People are speculating in GameStop. What's the hell what? What? So it was just a big fat glob of slop today. Coins did not have a good day. You know, We think of them. We don't need to go further on, though. We'll just keep telling you that they're in a bare market. We'll see how it plays out.

But just overall, a putrid day today. And we'll see what tomorrow breaks. That's all. You had a good week last week. Volume very light, though. We told you that. Just remember what bull markets are made of. It's when institutions plow into things.

and you know their conviction because a company that trades five million shares a day trades 12 and is up a bunch. Last week when Apple had some good days, the volume was 40% of normal. You know what that is? It's a bounce after a drop. Cannot go any further than that. I'd love to go further than that. Can't go further than that yet. there will come a point and there will come a day

where I'm able to report that good stuff to you. Not today. Wish I had better news for you. So crummy day, crummy market today, worse than the Dow down 164. Actually much worse. As we head into earning season, maybe tomorrow's better.

I've yet to scan. But I have an idea what I'm going to find. as always if you have any questions email me at garyk.com or g-call mob at callbomb.net and on Twitter we hope you listen. Up next, uh this, that, the other thing, whatever else. This is the one only investors edge. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong. Healthy choice simply steamers are delicious and healthy. The tray-and-tray steam technology delivers crisp veggies. and tender protein and tasty selections, like Healthy Choice Simply Steamers' grilled chicken and broccoli Alfredo,

it's a satisfying meal with 28 grams of protein and nothing artificial. Healthy Choice Simply Steemers. What having it all tastes like. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at appu.apus.edu. On eBay, every find has a story. Like if you're looking for a vintage band tea. Not just a tea, the band tea. From the last show your favorite band ever played.

You wore it everywhere. Then your BFF started glaring. it, which is cute until they unfriended you and took it with them, which was not so cute. Anyway, now you're on eBay. And there it is, same tea from the same tour. Still living in your memory, rent-free forever. See? The things you love have a way of finding their way back to you.

But eBay isn't just forgetting whatever your XBFF stole back. It's also for that rare championship foul ball you caught, then heroically gave to the kid next to you. And where else are you going to find your first car? The one you wish you'd never sold, but now, you finally get the chance to take back home. For good this time. Shop eBay for millions of fines, each with a story. eBay, things people love. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Inverester's Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. By the way, there's all this talk that Elon Musk can go to jail and all this stuff. Come on, stop.

They don't even put armed robbers in jail in some cities. You see what's going on in New York City? A man was trying to protect himself and his family at his own bodega. And on video was saying to him, please, we don't want any trouble, we're not any trouble. And this guy... what? They defend themselves and the assailant is dead. They arrested the owner. Now, they backed away on certain charges, but they're insane in New York. Incentivize bad behavior. You can't defend yourself. Go look at the video. There's so much insanity out there. Really is. Some of the

things I saw this weekend of importance. The New York Times in the Washington Post, both had articles intimating. President Biden is not up to the job. Too old, not with it. Now, mind you, that is the New York Times and the Washington Post. They are the mouthpiece of that party. So guess what's going on? The tigers are eating their young. Expect more of it. I'm pretty damn sure he's not going to be the candidate in 24, but that's just the guess. But nothing happens by accident from these newspapers in circles of that party. So I just want to let you know. That's how it works. Nothing happens by accident. They're going to be out. And that includes Kamala Harris, who's, wow, wow. What else did I notice this weekend? you know, politicians, politics is about getting elected the day after they're elected and marketing of it.

The job is to lie. If you're in power and things are bad, you could just got to lie your butt out. If things are good, oh, it's all because of you. And vice versa. If you're out of power and the things are bad, you blame the people in power. if you're out of power and things are good, you come up with something. It's a cesspool and that's why we can't stand any of them. But we can only take the temperature and only really care to take the temperature

or those that can affect change, the ones that are in power. And of course, the republicans are not in power right now. They will get the house in November, which means January. and I was thinking they were going to get the Senate, but they got some pretty crappy candidates in very important states. So I think there's a chance that Democrats could keep the Senate. But if you get the House, you are got all the committees and they're going to go after Hunter Biden, whatever else,

in revenge for going after Trump, and there'll be no investigations on Trump because none of them care about you. They're just all about their party. But man, oh, man. They sent the Labor Secretary out this weekend because the Treasury Secretary has no credibility whatsoever. She made the cardinal mistake of saying,

oh, I was wrong. Never admit you're wrong when you're in politics. You always say something to the effect of, well you know kind of sort of i digress the labor secretary made the treasury secretary janet ellen look like einstein you know average americans right now 469 coming in today at the at the gas pump keep in mind that's an average here in florida i'm i'm saying low fours of course in uh communist california it's much high which makes the average higher and other states they're they're just deaf they're just

blind and they're just dumb to the real world issues that are going on there and I was on TV today and except I said to Charles Payne man oh man I put my hand to my face about the labor secretary and just either lying or just not getting it not in the real world and I say tongue and cheek I just think that they're drivers put the gas in their car and the butlers do all their shopping for their food. I don't think they really do know. When my family decided to give out gas cards a couple of months back, you should have seen how happy people were. And these are for families that need some help.

That's how bad it is. I was getting hugs upon hugs for $50 gas cards. They just don't get it. They're handing the keys of the kingdom to the republicans who talk a great game, but they're full of crap also. But I'm just letting you know there's nobody on top of the situation. I said to Charles Payne today,

the best thing that can happen is they just go away and leave us be and let the market forces deal with it. But no, they keep proposing higher taxes for corporations coming out of a pandemic, and they say that's going to cure inflation, this is the people run in this country with absolute moronic, imbecilic thought process. By the way, they believe it. So I have no hope or confidence at this juncture, but we'll keep our fingers crossed, we'll keep our ear to the ground,

we'll keep our eyes wide open. And maybe the Republicans who get the house can affect some change. doubt it. Anyway, I wish I had better things to tell you today, but it wasn't that good of a day. Hopefully better tomorrow. You have a great evening. Drive carefully.

We deal with reality here, ladies and gentlemen. And when you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. You hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Until tomorrow, same time.

Thank you for listening to the show. hope we are of help at least with twitter with we were peace out all take care travel safe bye bye this has been investors edge with gary cult bomb on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to gary k dot com that's garykay dot com success starts with your drive and american public university is here to fuel it with affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.appus.edu.

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