Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Quiet but! [11.08.2023]

Episode Date: November 8, 2023

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today.

Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is Wednesday, November 8, 2023. Hope you having a good day. In case you don't know, this is serious talk about you and everything that affects you. markets, economy, job, unemployment, taxes, deficit spending, scams, shams, corruption. The Morlocks in D.C., you name it, we cover it. And if you don't get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at GaryK.com.

We'll also post it at our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you like to follow us, you should. And all you've got to do is go to X or to Twitter or whatever they call it. Put our name in. or press the button at gary k.com okay we're going to start with the market if you don't mind because without naming names there's somebody who's on one of those financial channels that have been on for many many years um we're not going to name names because we don't need to take anybody to task

it's cool. Anyway, this person came out and stated, you can't time the market. The stock market. You can't time the stock market. He went on to explain that this year, the S&P is up 14%, but just eight days explain the gains.

which is the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Because the S&P's up 14, but the equal weight is probably flat. But here's what does not, does not this person say. Nice English. This person did not say, you know,

if you scan 1,500 to 2,000 stocks a day, 200 sectors every country, every commodity, and you scan it for leadership and the opposite. You scan it for how many up trends and how many in downtrends, you spend thousands of hours studying what bull markets look like and what bear markets look like, and you have figured out a definable, definitive roadmap that markets must follow to be in a bullish phase or a bearish phase.

He didn't mention any of that. Let me explain why. Just another person that yaps and doesn't really work at this. But has no problem putting people down that works very hard at this. He didn't mention my name. He doesn't even know me. I'm pretty sure. I've met him once.

and I don't think he was being mean because I've met him and I had actually I met him at a wedding and he was a very nice man he just doesn't understand he doesn't get it you see he doesn't get that starting about three to four weeks ago on this show I had said to you

I'm starting to be wary of the oil stocks not because I pulled it out of thin air but because I scanned 150 oil stocks every night. And as we explain to you, how do things top, little by little piece by piece, inch by inch, one by one, and that's what started happening. Topps. Oh, and we know what tops look like. We know how they act.

How do we know that? Because you can't time the market. Well, we know it because we've studied thousands of hours. and interesting enough the oil stocks have not only topped but many have cracked and cracked badly but you can't time the market interesting from july to last week the beginning of last week all we did was play some mega cap tech names and made money on them while stock after stock sector after sector was trashed, as we were telling you to avoid those stocks after stocks and sectors after sectors, but you can't time the market.

Hmm. Mid-2021, we told you all the growth names were topping out, one by one, little by little, piece by piece, leading to November where they were all squashed. How did we figure that out? Because you can't time the market. Ladies and gentlemen, there is a select group of us that can. And that's because we work our arses off at it. And we do it with no bias, no agenda ulterior motive.

We let the market interpret to us. We don't dictate to the market. And if there are 50 stocks in a group and they're all bottoming at once, or breaking through the 50-day moving average at once, or breaking out to new yearly highs at once, we know something's up. Because we work at it. What a concept.

And then when we see an occurrence in the market that we've seen before, because we've studied for so long and so hard, we can go back on our software to that date and go to that. time and know, hey, look what happened then. And then I go to the box that's sitting to my left, which has thousands of charts separated in folders with date and kind. What do we mean by kind? Gaps to the upside. Gaps to the downside.

Breakouts, breakdowns, commodities bottom, commodities topping. That's how. So we weren't even offended. by what this guy said. And we got nothing against him. He's just one of the rest of the 99% of Wall Street that just buys you 100 stocks, charges you a fee when you can just go buy the S&P 500.

And then in bare markets, they tell you, don't worry, everything's okay. It'll come back. And when last Wednesday, out of nowhere, we said to you, we think we have a confirming low right now. let's see what happens. And so far, so good. With warts,

doesn't come out of thin air. Thousands of hours of study of the markets. Just like when we're done with this little diatribe, we're going to go through what to still avoid, even though we've rallied up. Because while we have rallied up, guess what happens while we rally up? We start taking notice of what ain't rallying up.

My goodness, we work at it. What a concept. Duh. Just wanted to start with that. And again, nothing personal. And I don't think he meant anything bad except Dufus just doesn't have an understanding of hard work. and really paying attention. You know what else they say?

You can't time the market. Okay, they say they can't time. Everything about the market is timing. Everything about what you do in the day is timing. Your choices and decisions. Timing. Just want to let you know that. I love people.

Anyway, I thought that was funny. as I scanned 1,500 names again today, 200 sectors, every country, every commodity, and I'm already done. And the market's closed just a little while ago. And what I'm going to do after the radio show, I'm going to get on my inclined trainer, because my back's 100% now, and I'm getting back in shape because I had 14 weeks of sitting on my arse. And then what I'm done, I'm going to hang out with Winston, and then I'm going to scan again. because you can't time the market. Up next. What's not keeping up?

And lots more. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559.

That's 888422-5-5-9. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment advisory services offered through Colbomb Capital Management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a good-drawn.

Game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Okay.

Market wrap. And brought to you by Investment. That's Jim Morbock, one of the great market timers, no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment dash models.com. Well, I want you to listen carefully because yesterday was a bad advance decline day. You see, we work at this. And we notice on a day like yesterday where you had a bad advance decline day and we do know the market got in trouble months ago because of a bad advance decline day. a daily basis. We know that. We had another one today. So I can tell you the Dow was only down 40,

but the S&P was up four, the NASDAQ up 10, the NASDAQ 100, up 17, but advanced declines on the NASDAQ were 1,500 up 2,500 down, and on the New York, 1700 up 2,243 down. And there were more new yearly lows than New Yearly highs on the New York and NASDAQ and more than triple new yearly lows than New yearly highs on the NASDAQ. While we're off the lows of recent, just letting you know. And how do we know all this? Oh, because we work in it. Just letting you know. So, here's the easy part. Oils bearish continue to avoid. Had another rough day, a dollar 70 down on oil. down to $79 depending on what you're looking at.

Very good. Good to see. Going to help out at the pump. You're back to where it was in August. The yield on the 10-year down 0.48 to 4.523 under the 50-day moving average. That's good news. The bad news, again, new highs versus new lows or new lows versus new highs, and advanced decline sucked again.

What else? The Russell 2000 was terrible again. Small caps. And they rallied up with everything recently because everything rallied up. But man, oh man. It's like watching the Giants against the Chiefs, small versus big cap. And boy, I hate saying that. Then again, it's like the Giants against any high school team these days.

Gold miners, not acting well. I mention oils. Metals in mining. Copper, aluminum. You know, that type of stuff. You can throw steel into that also. Big biotech and a lot of biotech. Not acting well.

Media. Have you seen the media stocks like Paramount or Warner Brothers that was absolutely trash today, GM and Ford acts like the south end of a northbound jackass and I'm being nice. A lot of the health care. Acts terribly.

Drugs, not Eli Lilly, but Bristol Myers, Pfizer, Glaxo, Johnson and Johnson, Abbott Labs, act terribly. Off the lows, but still relatively not good, the regional banks. Utilities have rallied up, but the kind of sort is still in the downtrend.

Same with the industrials. Tobacco stocks trashed. Japan may have topped out. Their ADRs have been doing okay. There's a chance they may have topped out. And then, of course, in the semis, the semiconductor index has been rally. up, but really on the back of a few big names, just like some of the indices, because I got

news for you. Don't you dare look at Terradine or Texas Instruments or some of these other stocks that have been trashed while Broadcom is on the potential of breaking out of a six-month range, NVIDIA is trying again, and so on and so forth. And then, as you go through the list, I just noticed Best Buy is back below the lows at new yearly lows of the year than last week when the market bottomed. For instance, so just letting you know there's still plenty to be desired in the market while a select group of mega caps

will throw in software now off of some earnings and that's going on again in the aftermarket it looks like and reaction to earnings by the way not to mention big banks not so great I didn't even mention oh did I mention solars that are at new yearly lows The good news is there's playable stuff, there's things working.

It's back to narrow as all heck. That's the best way I can explain it. Back to narrow as all heck. And you know what that means? Narrow is all heck doesn't usually end well. but narrow can go along for the ride for a while. Just letting you know. By the way, Disney report in the aftermarket.

Did they report? Did they report? Ooh, it's up a buck and a half in the aftermarket. Yay. And for those, think long term. Disney is down 60% from two and a half years ago. One of the greatest brand names in history is down 60% from two years ago. they'll still tell you to think long term.

Just so you know. Disney. So just keep that in mind. Because you can't time the market. You know who should have been timing the market? Well, the amazing part about what we do is every now and then there are sore thumbs. When Rivian came public and it was 170 bucks and we said it wasn't. was worth 20.

Just based on valuation. It was an easy one. But one of the other, we thought it was easy, but it took time was WeWork. So WeWorks bankrupt. I guess they'll be out of business. They're doing something with debt and something, and bondholders have lost a you-know-what's in it. I saw another story on We-Work today. I'll explain.

This is the one only investors at. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to. to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably

already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. Here, he's your Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, we work.

We knew it. Just like another one we nailed for you guys was beyond meat. It was a gimmie. Plants. Yeah, there'll be a certain segment that people eat plants. But come on. Anyway, that stocks down a bazillion percent. Anyway, we work.

Our thought process turned out to be true. And our thought process was they were breaking up all these areas of an office and doing these leases to people that can get out of it too easily. That's number one. And very one person, two person, three person. And we just thought any day. downturned, they're toast. The other part of the equation was they never made money. All they did was lose money. But you never know. But interesting enough, and I wish I knew these people, because I would say, you give me one-tenth of one percent of how much I'll save you.

Softbank, in case you don't know, is this conglomerate that owns all kinds of businesses, they invested $16 billion into WeWorks since 2017, while we're telling you this thing ain't lasting. And the people at SoftBank are a lot smarter than me. But sometimes you get caught up. And days before bankruptcy, they had to write a check for $1.5 billion in addition. Unbelievable.

It was a debt payment to lenders. And as we said, was one's valued at $47 billion. And they can, I don't know how it's going to work. They can convert existing debt into equity and reorganize. And who the hell knows? They lost their butts. And it was easy. It really was.

It was easy. At least we're concerned. And then another article came out today that I have to cover. And it pisses me off. Because as you know, we have been one of the loudest voices under the radar on debt and deficits. And now you have this Marxist control freak in D.C. that has supersized them. And the amazing part about supersizing them, after what Trump-Oabom and Bush, Bush did, you would think you couldn't supersize it anymore.

Oh, but they did. So we're just letting you know, now they're writing about it. Here's somebody, whatever. The U.S. government's debt is projected the past $50 trillion in a decade. Growing $5.2 billion every day, according to an analysis from the Bank of America. Where the hell these clowns have been 10 years ago when we were screaming about this? eight years ago, six years ago, four years ago, two years ago. Now they're worried.

And by the way, 50 trillion in a decade they're saying, horse crap, we're going to hit 50 trillion in seven and a half years, not a decade. Because as it grows, it compounds on the growth. and we've yet to get to the point where all kinds of maturities come up that were at much lower rates, now going to be a lot higher rates. And on top of that, wait to you see what happens to revenue to the government

when we go into a deep recession. I don't want to say they did this on purpose, but I wonder these days, because you know what they're going to do, do. They're coming for your wallets. They screwed you. They're corrupt as corrupt can be. And then they come at your, they did it in 08. We ought to give them $800 billion to give to their friends in Wall Street. Those corrupt individuals. Just so you know, the CEO of Merrill and, was it, Merrill Bank America? The two CEOs colluded. and knew inside information that they did not divulge to Wall Street about how bad things were. And they got away with it. Loans were, bad loans were coming off the books before earnings and put back on after earnings.

Nobody got indicted. I'd be indicted. Anyway, $50 trillion. I say in a decade will be it. 55 to 60 trillion of debt, and God only knows what happens from there. But don't worry, they have some economists in the tank that say you don't have to worry about the debt because we're the United States of America. Just remember, they're using us, they're killing us.

And you have miscreants like the head of the central bank going up and saying, look what he's done, he's brought inflation down, up yours, pal. You caused it, and now you're bringing it down? They think they're God. Anyway, I had to bring that up because now people are writing about the debt and deficits. Now they're all worried about the debt and deficits. The Republicans are now worried about the debt and deficits. They're really going at it now.

They've got to do something about the debt and deficits. but under Trump they didn't give a crap about the debt and deficits they didn't care that Trump's tariffs were destroying farmers and Trump took our tax dollars and paid off the farmers they would scream about it if the Democrats do it the Marxist party do it but not if they do it so just letting you know the cesspool remains and we're headed to 50 trillion but don't worry the NASDAQ was up today. Everything's going to be A-OK. And that's pretty much, do I have anything else?

Well, there were some elections yesterday. I don't know if you know it. Governorship here, this, that, and the other thing, state houses here and there. And the Democrats, I guess I'm hearing wipe the floor with the Republicans. And, you know, we're not ones, what, have I ever brought up abortion on this show? Maybe once or twice.

the Republicans lost some seats just on abortion. You know how smart the Democrats are? They ran ads in certain states showing a 12-year-old girl. One was a 9-year-old girl saying, I'm pregnant, and they're going to make me have the baby. And that went over a ton of people. And I'm going to guarantee you,

by the way, I'm not taking aside here. I'm just telling you what happened. Just not taken aside. Just telling you what happened. Those are the ads they were running. Never thought, with everything going on with the economy, people are voting on that. Go read up about it. Just letting you know.

Because we got to gear to the next election. When the bubonic plague versus the Ebola virus for president. Biden against Trump, that's who we're voting for. I don't know how with 300 million people in the United States, that's what we end up with. Sad. The bubonic plague versus the Ebola virus. Yeah. And you all know it too.

Even you lovers of Trump and Biden know it also. Come on. Segway. Oil down, yields down. Good to see. market overbought, but really couldn't come down today because oil down yields down. Simple as that. And we'll see what tomorrow brings.

Earnings reports, just so you know, we've got one part of our screen that show the best reaction to earnings. And we'll see how it plays out. That's what we find big leaders. Up next. This, that, and the other thing, and whatever else. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your. first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers

the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker makes the whole process. simple. You record your show,

upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to What are we waiting for? You're waiting for. One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Wester's Edge.

With Gary Kaltba. You know, I want to go back to the start of the show. Don't usually do that, but I feel I need to. Let me repeat a few things. I do think they're of importance because you've been sold a bill of goods. and there's no guarantees there's no guarantees

that hard work and studies gonna pan out we just want to let you know what we do do you know as I am speaking I am going through every earnings report

from after the close to see what's reaction well and what's reacting poorly and why. Like Disney is up three bucks in the aftermarket to 8745 still way down. But they beat by 11 cents because everybody's sandbags these days. 82 cents. Revenues rose 5%. And maybe the worst is over. and the subs were up for their Disney Plus.

Parks and experiences were up 13%. That's good. So we're going to spend time tonight on that important name. And maybe that's turning the corner. Because the other part of you can't time the market is the other part that is of import. We also recognize that. sometimes your greatest of gains will come from big names that have been down and out,

that get their act together. And when they're getting their act together, they're so under-owned, under-loved, and under-leveraged that you may have a nice little, wind going forward. That's the other part of what we do. It's understanding. Watch the big worry, the machinations of the market. Now, we don't know Disney's up three in the aftermarket. Maybe it finishes, maybe it opens down 10 tomorrow for all we know. Or up 10, we don't know. We also don't know what it's going to do from here. But unlike those that say you can't time the market.

we're going to do our job and go through it and then we're already looking that oh Disney if it opens at 87 1⁄2 is now going to open up above the high of 8619 in September and 8628 in October and probably it's putting in a decent bottoming formation but you can't time the market yes you can I just want to repeat again. It's hard work. It's arduous. It's a process.

It's knowing you're not going to be right 100% of the time. But when you're wrong, be wrong fast and be wrong small. And then when right, which by the way is the toughest part, let them run. And trust me, that is the toughest part. So that gives you understanding of what we do. Just Disney. Just bringing that up. That we're already drawing lines.

We're already looking at the map. Remember what we say? The roadmap. Bull markets have a certain roadmap. Bear markets have a certain roadmap. Bottoms have a certain roadmap. We're not joking. Tops have a certain roadmap.

They look a certain way. They act a certain way. There's a chance Disney may come out of its slumber. But even if it opens up 10 tomorrow, what if it finishes down on the day? That means they sold it. You just don't know. You just try to put the pieces of the puzzle together based on, as stated, thousands of hours of study, of markets, and of the greatest people.

ever in the markets. What did they look for? What did they do? What were their concepts? And as we always state, we're just looking at a photo album for familiar faces. That's what we're looking for. That's how we already know.

And it's aftermarket, it can change, that Disney is breaking above 10 weeks. and a place where it hit twice within pennies, and potentially you have what is about a two and a half, three-month bottoming formation. And how do we know that? Study of thousands of hours. Because you can't time the market.

Right? Now we also see something called duolingo gaping up, something called HubSpot, Twilio, even MGM, and we'll see what tomorrow breaks. But all we know with the close again today, big cap versus small cap, another crappy advanced decline, but yields down, oil down, and fundamentally that's good. Cost the capital and cost of energy.

Nothing better than seeing that on the way down. You have a great evening drive carefully. I'll be on with Varney tomorrow, Stuart Varney, the great Stuart Varney, 10 a.m. Fox Business Network, don't miss that. Until tomorrow, you have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Thanks for joining all. Peace out. Bye bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garyk.com. That's GaryK.com.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with CodeComfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com. Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.