Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Quiet but... [11.27.2023]

Episode Date: November 27, 2023

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colpom, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's my winning anniversary. Yes, today. November 27th. That's me. Hope you all had a good Thanksgiving.

Hope you're doing well. Hope you traveled safe. As always, we have a ton to cover. Serious talk on everything that affects you. We don't pull any punches here. We have no bias. We have no agenda. We have no ulterior motive except you.

Just you. We'll do the markets, the economy. war and everything else that matters and if you don't think what's happening in the Middle East doesn't matter

we need to talk but first if you do not get this radio show in your city we'll post it at garyk.com we'll also post it on our Twitter feed if you don't follow us on Twitter oh by the way it's X just go there put our name in and do follow You can email me, just be nice.

All you got to do is be nice. So I was up in the Northeast. Did not come across anybody tearing down posters that are kidnapped. They are lucky that I did not find any of them. I will tell you, as we've been starting the show with Israel, hostages have been coming back home. we have found out there are more, there's more and more depravity out there, more and more stupidity, more and more illness of people out there. You know, we always talk about here. I've never been more optimistic on most of us.

Well, it's a little less than most these days. The latest is, believe it or not, people are tweeting pictures of the terrorists. handing over the hostages, driving them, and you can hear them telling them wave and smile, wave and smile. And you have people that are tweeting, you see, they were treated well. Look how these kids and these hostages love their terrorists. Well, they don't use the word terrorists. You get the point. I don't know what's happened here.

The bottom line is tick-tac-toe. We are the belief you can't win, so you don't even play the game. You cannot debate these people. I don't know where they've come from. I don't know what's in their minds. I think they're all brain dead. If you ask them what river and what sea, they wouldn't know. If you ask them to show Israel and Gaza on a map, they wouldn't be able to show you.

It's like just follow the numbskull. That's what it comes down to. And you know that girl from where, wherever she's like from Sweden or Scandinavia or something like wherever that she's all for the climate and this and that and the media's put her out there hey guess what she's yelling from the river to the sea so she's another little anti-Semitic I can't use the word all we can tell you is we're happy that hostages are coming back they traded prisoners and they're celibate braiding these prisoners going home.

And I don't know most of them. But then I read about them, oh, this woman stabbed police officer. And they're praising her. Another woman, her face was contorted, distorted, whatever, from a bomb. And one person said, look what they did to her. No, she was a suicide bomber. And her bomb went off while she was sitting in her car. Just the things you learn, the facts you learn, remember, we're just missed the logic here.

We're just logical. Terror is bad. Rape is bad. Hostage taking is bad. Murder is bad. Really? So that's just a little bit of what's going on. One American has been released.

I praised the president upon when this happened as he took the side for Israel. but I must tell you right now, I'm looking for a word. I don't know what word to come up with when describing the president right now. Are people being attacked around the globe? Nothing. One American went, I'm just thinking, if I was the president and I represent America, I'm the head honcho, top dog big cheese. I want all the hostages back

But every one of my words To the bad guys Would be You have five days On the fifth day There's none of that There's no threatening No pissed off

Kind of I don't know Do you know where I'm coming from on that I want to praise him And I did praise him at the get-go. And he's taken vacations, and he's on the beach. And I'm just thinking to myself, I think the bad guys are laughing at him. And I don't think the bad guys are really worried about him.

Which means it's going to happen again. We'll keep you informed. We segue. Headline, Wall Street Strategist, Dial-up S&P 500 targets, the 5,000 for 2024, which is 10% from here. Hey, they're giving us the targets for the end of 2020. Ain't that great? You know, they never predict anything that really happens.

The targets are always higher. They didn't predict 21. They didn't predict 08. They didn't predict 11. They didn't predict 2000 to 03. They didn't predict the carnage still out there in growth stocks. They don't even mention that the Russell 2000 is still down 27%. This is an index, 27% from 21.

We're heading into 24. No mention of that, November 21, no mention of that. No mention of all the obliteration in financials, in regionals, and so many other places. just we'll be with the 5,000 by the end of 24 anyway guess what we're going to be doing we'll keep you in lockstep or one step ahead we will guide you in we'll guide you out

that's what we'll be doing nobody can predict the end of 2024 they're full of crap that's the game it's always higher they never see anything coming they didn't see the inflation coming. They didn't see the oil prices going up, going down, this, that, and the other thing. It's just the market's going higher. So just pay attention to what we have to tell you. We will not let you down. As of right now, the market's okay, much better since November 1st. The areas we are wary about are the oils. We think they're in trouble. And I think we're starting to hit some walls on some of the things that came off the lows. Just remember,

right before end of November, we had a thousand new yearly lows in the market. The broad market was gross, blasted, obliterated. Oh, they didn't tell you that either. On November 1st, we said to you on this show, we think the market had a confirmed day that usually turns into some sort of rally of unknown price and time, and it's been pretty good. And it's really been the floor lifting up. Even the small and midcaps are off the floor, and let's hope it continues. New yearly highs, there aren't a ton yet.

If we start seeing a ton, we know there's going to be longevity. This occurred because yields have tanked down to 4.4% almost. Actually, it closed at 4.389 today, which is huge, down from 5. Oil prices have come down. If they turn back up, that'll be a problem. problem. If they are starting to forecast a recession or a big drop in the job market, that'll be a problem. Everybody's talking about this so-called soft landing brought to you by J-Powell, but J-Powell has no control of anything anymore. He's like the third string quarterback. The free market's doing its job. If they'd only just retire and stay out of the way, we'd be much better off. All they have done is damage. That's all they have done. They missed everything from start to finish,

and they've enabled massive debt and deficits brought to you by the great Marxists in the White House Joe Biden. Up next, we'll segue to the markets. Lots to cover. I'm Gary. This is the one only, Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show, Investors Edge.

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. All right. So before we get to market, a few things of note that are starting to come to fruition that we said we thought would happen. It really wasn't a prediction. But we started to see it, a little bit of it.

Just letting you know housing prices are coming down. Just so you know, inventory is starting to pick up. And as more and more people see prices coming down, they'll get scared and more and more people start putting their house up for sale. That's how it works. Movement creates movement. That's how it goes. Movement creates movement. Here in Central.

And just so you know, here's the good news. A lot of pricing is fantasy land. I'm looking at some houses here in central Florida that went for three quarters of million dollars two and a half years ago. They're putting them up at 1.6. Now they may get lucky and have a doofus buy, but for the most part, we're seeing now. Price drops, and I'm talking higher end. I saw one that went from 5-5 to 4-5.

I saw one that went from 3 down to 2.6. And they're still ridiculously high. And if you go on Realtor.com, it actually has the history of price. So people, and here, I got to tell you, some ridiculous price things have been sold, but very few and far between. My expectation is that more inventory, more price drops. Am I looking for a disaster? Not at this juncture.

But just remember, everything Jay Powell has created has blown up. Just remember, the latest is the 3-8. the 3-8. Nobody wants to sell a home that has a 3% mortgage and get an 8, even though it's down to 7.5 now. And guess who created the 3% mortgage? I'd like to say the free market, no, it was Jay Powell printed to $9 trillion and took rates down to the bone. The 10-year yield was down at a half percent, somewhere in there, maybe even lower? 0 TNX

If I can find it Zero TNX The 10 year yield was down to Point 4 Point 4 And that was brought to you by him One man played God And we allowed it

Because Washington allowed it We're a bunch of imps We have no say in any of this It's not It hasn't been we the people it's we, it's them. So anyway, that's the latest. That's the worry, though.

What's blown up? Well, let's see. The meme stocks have crashed. The NFTs have crashed. The cryptos have crashed. Wait a man, Gary, isn't Bitcoin and Ethereum strong? Yeah, but they came out with 30 some odd thousand coins, and most them are zero. And the reason why Bitcoin, Ethereum,

and there's a few others, I guess, but they're owned by a select few that own a ton of it, and they can't sell. And if you want to believe Ms. Ark funds that it's going to a million, God bless if it does. Somebody's going to have to pay $999,999,999. So that blew up.

And then you got the marijuana stocks blew up, the SPACs blew up, the ridiculously price IPOs, blew up. Want me to continue? The hunks of junk blew up. I was looking over the NFTs a couple of weeks back.

The first, somebody paid $2.3 million, some rich hedge fund guy, he tried to put up, wouldn't pay $50. That's Jay Powell. No, he did not invent the NFTs, but

out of ridiculous, easy money just becomes utter stupidity. Now, I'll tell you what has not broken. Have you seen what some of the sports memorabilia's been going for? Holy crap. That's got to be a bubble. And frankly, I'm jealous. But there's a bunch of that going on.

I'm sitting here with a Pokemon card. I'm told's worth 12,000 bucks. I'm ready to sell. I'm going to give it the charity. That shouldn't be. that comes from easy money. All Jay Powell. And now the latest, the 3-8.

Oh, the other bubble was inflation. He caused it. I know it's easy to blame Biden. No. It wasn't the Putin price hike. It was Jay Powell. We told you beforehand inflation was coming. Printed $9 trillion, all that money chasing nothing, inflation.

And then Biden with his asinine acetate. 10-ass-11 spending, growth of government. He should be impeached just for that. If I was a congressman right now, I'd file impeachment for $2 trillion deficit, hamstringing the public, screwing you, we the people. That's what it is.

It's screwing us, every single one of us. I watch the Sunday shows again this weekend, not a word. They had the economic advisor for Biden on not a word about the deficit. Not a freaking word. And they let him sit there, talk about how good the economy is, and why people don't think it's good. Put me on with them.

I'll have them on the ground. You've got to be kidding me. I can get a strong economy. I'll print $12 trillion. I'll raise government spending $5 trillion. I'll get a big GDP. Very easy. Anyway, a lot of crap going on.

not to mention we've got an election between the Ebola virus and the bubonic plague which one's Biden which one's Trump I don't know imagine any one of those two president for the next four years after next year

nightmarish oh but he had good policy yeah the good news is the Giants won again with a big offensive flurry they won 10-7 and that's that And we segue again to the market, kind of quiet.

Dow only, it was down 56, S&P, down 9, NASDAQ 9, NASDAQ 120. The transports were down 190, though. Advanced declines were down not so bad. New highs, not bad. Still not huge. And up next, we'll sink our teeth into it more. Thanks for being here. I'm Gary.

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Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

I don't have much in the way of complaints in the market. I will tell you a few things. One. A sentiment, how the masses feel about the market has gone a little bit coast to coast in a month, but in order for that to happen, you have to go higher. And that's what happened here. So it's normal to have sentiment go the other way. Not the end of the world by any stretch of the imagination. No sweat.

What sentiment does, you can end up hitting a little bit of a wall, pull back. and we have a better feel for markets, not necessarily on the move up, but on the pullbacks. Are they controlled? Are they rotational? Are they on lighter volume? Do leading stocks hold vital support levels? If that's the case, good. if we see otherwise not so good yields well the market was down today even though yields were down

very much today is that a change of complexion because as you know the direct correlation has been interest rates down markets up interest rates up markets down i don't think one day tells you much but we'll be watching and here's why as i have stated credit card usage is skyrocketed. Dead has skyrocketed. Savings rates have plunged. There's some outlier things going on with the consumer. Even though we're being told the consumer's fine, I'm not so sure.

The price of auto is at a record. Very unaffordable is rent and housing. While they tell us inflation is down, they can't snow me. What do I mean by that? Well, let me explain inflation. If the price of something goes up 15% in the last two years, but only up 3% this year,

well, that means the rate of inflation's down, but that means it's still up that people are paying for. Got me? And there's a lot of that going on, though. very, very happy to see oil prices down. That is huge, not just at the pump, but all the products that are made with petroleum. That is great news. But if the lower oil prices and yields are based on a big slowdown in demand,

And then we lose the job market. There's your good recession. The good news for you and I, they ain't going to bother me. I'd rather not happen. But guess what the market will do? The market will flush it out, and it'll tell us, and we'll be ready.

And you know what it'll tell us with? Oh, with the rails and the truckers, and the economically sensitive names start rolling over badly like Union Pacific did today I wouldn't call badly but not great if those areas start to gag

that'll be a good hint if the transports really roll over and I don't mean just pull back that'll tell me a bunch if the autos and auto well the autos are still debt except if Ferrari, the auto dealers gag will know. If the new yearly highs goes by the

wayside and the new yearly lows pick up, we'll know. If moving averages get taken out, we'll know. If the drops are on heavier volume and the bounces are on light volume, we'll know. If the stair steps start going south, we'll know. So don't sweat it. Don't fret it.

We'll be on it. The market has flushed out every good recession we've ever had. Well, recession, every bad recession we've ever had. We've studied it. The same thing

happens every time and the reason markets top is because recessions lead to much less consumer which leads to much less spending which leads to much less sales which leads to much less profits which leads to margin squeeze which leads to lower stock prices and And then at that point in time, you get the Fed lowering rates. Their rates in order to catch up with the free market rates that are already heading down. And the problem now we have is since Jay Powell's been wrong 100 out of 100 times, do you really not think he's going to be right the 101st? They're duffices.

They are the most overrated boobs on earth. No, they really are. I don't know if you know this. They don't have a clue about what's going on with the economy. They get these little sheets on a computer paper about the statistics. But their butler buys all the food. Their driver fills up the Bentley. They don't have a clue.

I've listened to these people in the past. it's nauseating. And let me add, our Treasury Secretary, Ms. Yellen, who used to be the head of the Fed, and before that she worked with Bernanke at the Fed, I think is worse than all of them. She has no problem with $2 trillion deficits. We do.

Earning season this week, well, let me just say, and you may or may not have heard, symbol ZS, Z scale. It is software security stuff, cloud security, all that kind of crap. It's down $13 and make it $12 in the aftermarket on its earnings. But it's had a good move. That's what we're going to be watching closely.

Some of these software names that have had good moves, well, how the stock's going to react. I will tell you this week, tomorrow after the closes crowd strike, into it, network appliance and workday that'll be important rest of the week salesforce dot com Wednesday after the close that's a Dow software name snowflake and synopsis after that Dell later in the week so quite a few important names this week in an otherwise not a big week for earnings reports in number I haven't talked about it much. Gold.

Go look at a monthly on gold. If it breaks up to all-time highs, you'll know it because we'll tell you. It's getting closer. Gold stocks continue to underperform. Huge underperformance in gold stocks versus the metal. Gorgantuan underperformance of gold stocks versus the metal. and I must tell you, I have no clue why.

Really don't. I do know Newmont mining, which is a lot of the indices of gold, the ETFs, woefully underperforming. Normally, I'd want to buy the stocks. You want stocks to outperform the metal. Ain't happening. I do have a few stocks in gold land at New Yearly highs, all very low-priced.

Simple EGO. Oh, by the way, we're not advocating buying them or selling them or shorting them or covering them. We're just reporting to you. AGI. H-M-Y. K-G-C. You can go check them out for yourself.

Up next, what else is going on? This is the one-only investors end. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refrable fresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for

25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

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What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge with Gary Culpa. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. More than three dozen members of Congress have announced they will not seek re-election next year. Some are going to run for Senate.

The others getting the hell out of Dodge because they know how bad they screwed us. Look what they've done. Look what they've done. We have more. deficit this year. That's government spending above and beyond what we send, even though we're at records of what we send them. The deficit is bigger than all of the federal spending back in the year 2000. Again, Biden should be impeached just for that. Forget Hunter Biden, but they're all running for the hills. Screw us and get the hell out of D.C. I want you to

remember this. Nothing by accident. And Joe Mayer, The Yuts is going to be running for president on the independent side now, which I have no idea who he's going to take votes from. The bubonic plague or the Ebola virus. We'll call Biden the bubonic plague Trump the Ebola virus. How's that? 350 million people in this country, and those are the two misfits that are going to be front and center running for the president of this country. sickening. Manchin says, I got duped. Joe Biden duped me. Or I wouldn't have signed off on that scam of a deal. Yeah, you got duped by a guy who can't even walk up and down steps. And he's

going to run for president. Yay. Kids, when I tell you, become great at your jobs. Make sure if you work for somebody, that they know you're the best there is there, so you never have to worry. If you're an owner, work hard, market yourself well, because the headwinds they keep put in front of us are unimaginable. Three dozen, minimum, and it's early. Just wait. Just wait. I'm really in a good mood, by the way.

When my giants win, I'm in a good mood. So I go to New York. My wife has COVID, and now she doesn't have COVID, but now my other son has COVID. And I hung around him the whole time I was there, but I don't have COVID. How does that work? By the way, he's just, it's just a flu-like symptoms. He slept the day away today. Still don't want to screw with it, though.

But that was the few days I was in New York. Did not see my parents. They wouldn't come. They wouldn't see me. Oh, your wife has COVID. Were you around here? Yes. Now you're not coming over here.

My family. But I don't have COVID. I tested myself twice. Sorry. You're around it. So, uh, I just hung out. Abercrombie and Fitch. Decker's Outdoor.

Lulu Lemon. Skechers. Costco. Just some retail. with a lot of retail dead, these retail stocks are sticking out. Just letting you know, amazingly, and me being jealous, Abacrombie and Fitch first had some earmarks back in May of 23. Gapped up, not a new yearly high, but first sign.

drifted next earnings report Gapped up again Did nothing for seven weeks Then got moving again Sometimes it's tough Reported earnings again which were Bafo gaped down And reversed up

And hit another new high today Quite stunning May I state for the record Abercrombian Fitch who is to know the stock is trading even with this rally

lower than where it was in 06 17 years ago amazing and I must admit normally I'm visiting these places to see what the heck's going on I have not done my leg work yet

I know they own Hollister I believe but mostly Abercrombie and Fitch I must check out what the reason is and give you an example Revenue Up 3, up 3, then an up 16 and an up 20 And earnings have just exploded

Congratulations Not very easy To turn around Retailer like that Skechers may be doing a little bit of the same less so. So I just wanted to bring up some retail in a sea of crappy retail. And I mean some retail stocks have been obliterated.

All right. Yeah, I sound a little P.O. today, but a billion a half bucks was added to our debt today. What can I tell you? Make that $3 billion. I got to start adjusting. You have a great evening, drive carefully when you get home, do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Same time tomorrow. Good night, all. Bye, bye. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X. card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.