Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Quiet For Now!

Episode Date: April 18, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you were listening. It is April 18th, 2002.

It's Tuesday. I hope you're having a good day. Lots to cover, as always. In case you don't know, this is Investors' Edge, serious talk on you and everything that affects you and the markets and your money and the economy and your jobs and all that. We used to not have to worry about all the things that affect you, but since they become such gargantuan interlopers, we have to. I have to bring up something right out of the get-go.

I heard today, Kevin McCarthy, last eye looked, these Speaker of the House, they're trying to do a compromise on the size of government and government spending. I want to throw up. Remember what I have said to you. They're not Republicans. They are Republicans. And I'm not talking about you Republicans out there. I'm talking about the Republican leadership that is out there. Under Trump, they lied to all of us about who they were. When they were in power, Trump who lied, well, lied four times a day, he told us that he was the greatest negotiator on earth, the art of the deal, and he was going to cut the deficits in half,

and there was going to be no debt every year, and he lied, came right in and boom, started spending, because they figure out pretty quickly, man, if I spend a crap load of money, who cares whether it's debt or not, that goes into GDP, and I can sell myself. So they lie. So now the Republicans have taken the House over, and basically what the House does, they can come up with their own budgets.

They have power also to negotiate. There's no longer does the Marxist party. Yes, the Democratic Party, this Democratic Party is a bunch of control freak Marxists, worse than the Republicans. At least they can fight the Marxist party because God only knows what Joe Biden would have done. If he had another two years after what he did in his first two years, totally castrating the taxpayer. So Kevin McCarthy today, I hear it comes out that they're talking about, you ready for this? Well, what we're going to do is put in a proposal that government spending going forward can only increase 1% per year. notice my silence because you know what the next words are just another con artist so let's get this

straight in 2019 the year before COVID all of our federal spending was 4.4 trillion they're going to let Biden get away with putting out a new budget at 6.8 trillion now just so you know year to year I use the year before COVID because of all that extra spending. So from 2019 to now, they're telling us government spending has to increase 55%. Do you know how sickening that is? And for the Republican leader to come out, well, we just want to know what they should be doing is saying, well, lower spending. cut the spending. Do you know that Biden's budget of $6.8 trillion,

1.6 of it minimum is debt, deficit spending. And I got newsfea. I don't think it's going to be that good. I think it's going to be $2 trillion plus. So I have no hope. If I was Speaker of the House, I would cut spending year ago. over year. Why does government spending have to go up every year? Inflation? Kiss mine. You've been

raising government spending when inflation was zero, 5% a year, 10% a year. They need to start playing catch-up on the downside, and here's why. We're guaranteed. We're guaranteed right now, if nothing changes, one trillion of our tax dollars every year is going to go towards interest. That's more than our defense spending. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm trying to be an optimist.

They're freaking killing us. And remember, government only breathes and lives with our tax dollars and they just decided, ask screw that, we'll just spend as much as we want to. screw the taxpayer

oh and then we'll go after the rich and the wealthy and the successful because they don't pay enough their fair share which is another joke and another lie the wealthy pay all the taxes but these crooked politicians these corrupt politicians

have to where is the money so I don't have any hope and if Trump wins again he's a big gargantuan BS artist on us also If DeSantis wins, he gets a chance to not be a BS artist. By the way, it's down to those three. Unless Biden decides not to run, and who knows, you never know.

I'm not one like other people that have been for years saying dementia, this, that, but I will say this. Boy, does he look a lot older in the last year. And I believe there's a reason why they're keeping him out of big press conferences. And I am not one that use that button. So it's between those three. Nobody else. Ain't nobody else going to be able to get even.

And the Sanis is screwing up big time. He should have been running already. Trump's been kicking his butt with stupidity. Trump is Eddie Haskell. Trump is the guy in junior high that sat on the sidelines watching two kids with the little push fights yelling, and hit him, hit him from the sidelines. And I don't know if Trump can win the general, but he's sure going to win the primary.

If the Sanis doesn't get in soon, I got news for you. I'm already sick of Trump. I can't take this guy. I want somebody else. Oh, but he has good policies. Screw his good policies. I'll be president and do good policies and not do all that crap. And Biden's a Marxist control freak.

Moderate, you know what. And I'm not thrilled with the Santas and some of his extracurricular activities as of lately. Now he's talking about building a jail near Disney. Yeah, great. Can't we find somebody else that gets rid of ego? We the people. Low taxes. Trust the people.

Less regulation. If life was different from me, I would have ran years ago. But I, you know, I led a different life. because I'm logical. Low taxes. Regulation, but less. Trust the people of this country. Strong education.

Pay the teachers well. But make sure they're good. Strong defense. But make them accountable. Don't know if you notice that they didn't audit on the Pentagon. They can't find trillions of dollars, but nobody's making them accountable for that. Full backing of police.

You do the crime? You got a problem, bro. Not like in New York City if you shoplift 40 times. Nothing. So we're left with these three. Anybody else running Republicans is going to pull it 1% at best. I'd be surprised if anybody comes out of that. We'll see.

But I don't have much hope on where we're headed. The debt time bomb. Up next, today's markets. Quiet day somewhat. This is the one-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living,

specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-2-2-2. 5-5-9. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb capital management.

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. By the way, let me repeat what I said. We're guaranteed $50 trillion dollars they are going to be spending in Washington, D.C.

that they weren't supposed to spend. 50 trillion. It's a crime. It should be a crime. They should be going to jail. No, really. Well, they commit insider trading. I want you to think about this 50 trillion.

And just so you know, the major trajectory started with Bush. Last 23 years. They were starting to get going a little bit in the 90s. But since Bush, the compassionate conservative BS artist, That led into Obama, BS artists. That led into Trump, BS artist. That led into Biden, BS artist. And every politician.

And there have been some politicians in the last 23 years that try to fight it. They were drowned out. We're going to go to the point where our whole federal spending of the year 2000, soon, that will be interest payments. And you do realize when it all blows up, the people that caused it will be dead. working at Goldman Sachs or living in their big homes quietly with security, while your kids are going to be asking what the hell happened. And the media will sit there with their thumbs up their rear ends, and each side will blame each other.

It's your fault. It's your fault. It's your fault. It's your fault. You did it. No, you did it. No, you did it. No, you did it. I wasn't going to even mention any of this today until I heard the Republicans. Let's negotiate and we'll do this, but only 1% increase in spending. Only after they've already. What each and every one of you should do is just go Google the words, federal spending through the years. Make sure you did not eat within an hour of that. And then just have to ask yourself one question, where the blank is all.

the money. I'm disheartened today on this. We want you to remember something. We call the bubbles. We called the crashes the bubbles. We call the distortions. We called the inflation. We've called everything in advance. We're telling you, there's going to be a huge debt bomb. I don't know in what form it's going to hit. I don't know in what place it's going to hit. I don't know when it's going to hit.

But they're just laughing their asses off at us now. They're just cracking up at us. And the brutal lying to us. Joe Biden will stand in front of a Cameron says he has lowered the deficit markedly even though everyone knows.

That's a big lie. He's running record deficits. He's trying to claim lowering the spending from COVID. Look what I did. What a BS artist of immense proportions. Gargantuan proportions. I hope I'm gone when it hits.

That's all I know. You hear my fingers on the little table here? I've been hoping. All right, the Republicans got the house. Fight. They're already given up. Trying to tell you they're fighting. They're already given up.

You got Janet Yellen, our Treasury Secretary, that's supposed to defend our treasure, saying she's not worried if we go to $50 trillion of debt. That right there should have her disqualified. I wouldn't hire as dog catcher. Imagine our Treasury Secretary. Yeah, $50 trillion, no big deal. All right. Just, you know, we're an earning season now. Netflix just reported. The stock closed at 33370. A few minutes ago was down to 298. But it's 322 now. Only down 11 bucks. They guided below consensus, revenues below consensus, but blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, and blah, who knows where it'll finish. Maybe it'll be up 30 bucks by later. Everybody puts spins on things. The big thing about today's market. The indices didn't move, but there's some jello moving on the plate, and we will cover it, because as you know, we are not interested in saying the Dow was up, the S&P was up, the NASDAQ was down, the Dow was down, S&P was down, NASDAQ was down.

There are 200 sectors and sub-sectors. There's a bunch of countries. There's commodities, you name it, we cover it, and if things stand out, we want you to know. And there's been plenty, plenty of bare markets, even as we've rallied up. we had a meltdown in the financials. Better tone right now for some. But now we enter earnings season and anything be possible. It won't be the news.

It'll be how things react to the news that have our attention. Like a Netflix, which is only down 13 in the aftermarket. after missing was down 30 we'll see what tomorrow brings so today's market wrap the disheartening market wrap is brought to you by investment dash models.com that's jim morback one of the great market timers no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models dot com you ready for this the dow was down 10 the nasdaq was down four the s&P was up three NASDAQ 100 was up for.

Yay. Up next, the innards. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor said. Allergy season always has a way of sneaking up on you when you least expect it. One minute you're listening to your favorite podcast. You're locked in hanging on every word when bam! A surprise bonus episode drops.

Brought to you by allergies. The itchy, watery eyes hit nonstop sneezing kicks in. And a runny nose forces you. to hit pause. Suddenly everything is a trigger, the flowers, the breeze. It feels like even the trees are out to get you. Luckily, Kleenex ultra-soft tissues have you covered. They're allergist approved and silky soft to help prevent skin irritation so you can stay comfortable all season long. Don't let allergies put your life on pause, especially not when you finally got your cue exactly where you want it. Be prepared with Kleenex ultra-soft tissues. For whatever happens next,

grab Kleenex. Add them to your cart today. Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong. Healthy Choice Simply steamers are delicious and healthy. The Tray-in-Tray steam technology delivers crisp veggies and tender protein and tasty selections, like Healthy Choice Simply Steamers grilled chicken and broccoli alfredo. It's a satisfying meal with 28 grams of protein and nothing artificial. Healthy Choice Simply Steamers.

What having a. it all tastes like. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way.

Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSC. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I really was not going to do a thing on Washington, D.C. today until Kevin McCarthy. I will cut your deal. We'll raise spending 1%. That's all.

Really? That's all. Just remember McCarthy was around when Trump decided be a socialist for four years. Trump is socialist. Let me explain socialism. Running a $6 trillion deficit over your four years is socialism, kids. You got that? It comes in different forms and by different con artistry.

Just remember that. We'll know. Listen carefully. when the debt bomb hits. And you know I'm not a Cassandra. I've never been more optimistic in you and I, and most of us, never been more pessimistic on them. Here's how we'll know.

Do you remember a few days before they just cracked the banks? What did we say to you? The banks are starting to act really poorly here, especially the regionals. We said that to you. You know how we'll know? The market. The market. It's as simple as that. That is how we will know. The market will pick it up.

Just remember, the financials started underperforming a year before the market croaked back in 2008. It took months of rolling over the market and underperforming with the financials. The big money was betting on trouble with the financials way in advance. That's how we'll know. We went back, just so you know, in 1987, I worked at a penny stock firm. I had absolutely no clue about the markets. But what we did, and you'll just have to believe me when I say, we went back six months before, the crash and scan the market with no bias but knowing a crash was coming six months later

and we walked through the next six months the average stock was topping out three to four months we would own no stock before the crash the market will give clues when this hits and maybe it's not for 10, 20 years. I don't know. I didn't know we were just going to have a blow up in the banks. We knew it would eventually hit them, but we didn't know when and how. The market will tell us. There is nobody better in our industry, and we've proved it time and time again

in knowing when things are topping, whether it be a market, a sector, a country, or a stock, and then heading into the abyss. We did it for you on this bear market. Daily. Daily. We'll be ready if in... Not if. When?

As they continue to taunt markets and screw the taxpayer. I heard the Marxist Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders were on the warpath today about the wealthy and successful. Are you gonna come get you? You're not paying your fair share. Oh, this is Bernie Sanders.

Those bad corporations, you bad people. Billionaires. You billionaires. How bad you are billionaires. Yeah, good. Happy days. All right, what else today? Of note, just things standing out.

Housing stocks. Acting great. The new yearly high list. A bunch of housing stocks. Just letting you know, reporting the news. breaking out of range, housing. Now, I'll tell you what I'm hearing is that there's a lack of inventory. Okay.

All I know is housing stocks, really strong standing out. I'm going to give you some symbols to scan. We're not telling you to buy them, sell them, short them, or cover them. But these are some symbols. TOL, the Toll Brothers, Lenar, L-E-N, K-B-H, K-B-H, GRB-B-K-B-K. D-H-I, M-T-H-M-H-O. There's some housing names, just letting you know. We also want to let you know you had some bad reaction to earnings.

Goldman Sachs, earnings came out. The stock was down today, $13, but only finished down $577. What does that mean? Perceived bad news. not being sold off. State Street Bank yesterday hit a low of 6562, closed at 72, 68, closed at 7490 today.

Real bad perceived numbers. Couldn't continue to sell them off. Shorter term, that's what you want to see. J.P. Morgan, which had perceived good news, gaps up at 135. It's 141 in three days. Keep in mind, all these financials have been weighed down from that crumbling. So they're playing what we call catch up. But leave no doubt, before earnings came out, we thought they were sold out, but you had to wait for earnings?

We continue to believe they've got a little bit bit here, noting there's a bunch more that are reporting earnings soon. Noting that. Schwab, everybody was worried about Schwab. Schwab yesterday at the low. was it $49 after earnings close at $52.77 hit $50. Keep in mind it was $82

before all this crap happened. But our job is to get a feel also. Is something sold out? Do they have an ability to sell it down? Where is the potential ability to continue to sell down? I can tell you a lot of the regional banks.

If you look at the KRE, which is the regional bank ETF, adding budgeon and maybe a rhyme and a reason in that J.P. Morgan said they got a ton of deposits from smaller banks.

Maybe something like that's going on. If I owned financials and this is not an indictment of them, I'm just, this is pure stock market talk. I wouldn't own a small regional bank at this juncture. Price movement has not proved itself as of the second.

and if the KRE happens to break below 41.28, possibly start of another leg down and maybe another shooter drop somewhere. Not a prediction. But technically, 4128 was the reversal low of March 24th, near a term 4167. Back to the aftermarket, Netflix, which closed the 33370,

hit 298 almost immediately, it's back to 328 only down five and change. I'm looking at their numbers, they stunk. Earnings, $2.88 for Netflix. Last year's earnings, $353. So what is that? Another 20% drop in earnings. Sales only up 3% year over year. Another low single digit.

And keep in mind, the stock hit an all-time high of 701 November 19th, 2021. But as of this second, another initially perceived bad news. They can't sell it off. Of course, we got a whole evening and tomorrow the open. Tomorrow earnings, you ready? ASML Holdings, important semiconductor,

Morgan Stanley, important financial, travelers in the Dow, important insurance, U.S. Bank Corps, a regional. after the close ibn and the dow tesla we're earning is supposed to be down 75% by the way up next more this that and the other thing whatever else i'm gary this is the one only investors edge allergy season always has a way of sneaking up on you when you least expect it

one minute you're listening to your favorite podcast you're locked in hanging on every word when bam a surprise bonus episode drops brought to you by allergies The itchy, watery eyes hit, nonstop, sneezing kicks in, and a runny nose forces you to hit paws. Suddenly, everything is a trigger, the flowers, the breeze. It feels like even the trees are out to get you. Luckily, Kleenex ultra-soft tissues have you covered.

They're allergist approved and silky soft to help prevent skin irritation, so you can stay comfortable all season long. Don't let allergies put your life on pause, especially not when you finally got your cue exactly where you wanted. Be prepared. with Kleenex ultra-soft tissues. For whatever happens next, grab Kleenex. Add them to your cart today.

Enjoying a healthy dinner that tastes great means eating out at a pricey restaurant, right? Wrong. Healthy Choice Simply Steamers are delicious and healthy. The tray-and-tray steam technology delivers crisp veggies and tender protein and tasty selections, like Healthy Choice Simply Steamers' grilled chicken and broccoli alfredo. It's a satisfying meal with,

28 grams of protein and nothing artificial. Healthy choice simply steamers. What having it all tastes like. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things. Like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did.

The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Investers Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. By the way, Tesla, I'm sorry, estimates are for 85 cents versus last year's $1.7. That's what I'm showing. 85 versus $1.7. That's what I'm showing. I'm going to make sure that's correct.

Yeah, it looks that way. I think that's correct. And in case you don't know, Tesla's had to lower prices five times this year. And just remember, to lower prices five times for any product, it is not because you are a sweet person and you are generous. Just remember when anybody holds a sale, it's not because they're wonderful.

it's because they need to move inventory, sometimes quicker than others. That's why we're always watching retailers that have too much inventory, always trying to get a feel. That's why target stock crumbled, crumbled. So Tesla should be interesting tomorrow. And let me just give you a few others. Tomorrow after the close, Lamb Research, important semiconductor, discovery financial, another bookie. They're credit cards. Synchrity Financial.

American Express on Thursday before the open. Just my American Express bills. Keep that stock up. Blackstone, Comerica, D.R. Horton, another home builder. That'll be interesting. Union Pacific, a very important rail. Taiwan Semiconductor. Snap-on.

New Corps, Steel. Seagate Technology, CXX, Railroad. Friday, Procter & Gamble, a down name, SAP. Very important. And by the way, here's the thing with what's going on. SAP is a software company out of Germany. Last four-quarter earnings, down 33, down 51, down 46, down 44. Yet the stock is rallied from 78 to 127 off the lows.

Still way off the highs of 170. But got to believe. Just remember, if earnings drop 50%, but the stock rallies 50%, where does that leave valuations? So I'm constantly looking at guidance. Is the guidance getting better? I'm constantly looking for that. Is guidance getting better? And SAP's earnings for this quarter that they're going to report this week is for earnings to be flat year over year.

So much better than down 40%. Let's say they beat by 10%, and they're up 10% for the quarter. You still have four quarters prior down 40% on average. We'll see. We'll see. Same thing for Facebook and video. I'm watching as guidance. And just so you know, I'm able to tell by the things I have,

has guidance been moving up or down? in the quarter. And it really hasn't. All I can tell you, some of these things that have had moves better have some pretty good earnings going forward or at least some good guidance. By the way, Netflix only down four bucks in the aftermarket now, which is pretty damn good considering I'm looking at their numbers. Blah. Big blah. So let me just state for the record it's going to be a fun next three weeks. I don't usually use hyperbole when like others do. where they say the most important earnings report in history, the most important in history. This quarter earnings is, I'm going to say just a very important earnings time.

The good news is, so far, absolutely so far, reactions are fine. By the way, Netflix now is only down 70 cents in the aftermarket on crappy numbers. By the way, their guidance for next quarter was supposed to be $3.8. They're now saying $284. Revenues to be below consensus also. What does that tell you? The market. If we were in a real downtrend right now, I think this stock would have been blasted.

So there's your Netflix. And of course, that can change. And of course, if they're doing a conference call, they're going to put a good spin on everything. And by the way, I don't know if you know this. I don't know exactly when, but you can't share passwords anymore. I think they're starting in Europe and we'll see what happens. Anyway, that's your Netflix. So I'm not going to apologize for how we started the show.

I'm just letting you know we weren't going to start that way. And then I listened to the BS. Our Treasury Secretary doesn't think $50 trillion in debt matters. And that just tells you who she was. She was head of our central bank for a while. and you know we call them just a bunch of easy money dults easy money debt-laden dults look up the word dalt it describes them very well without using a real expletive and they just don't care because they're all going to be dead when the debt bomb hits or you know somewhere you know she collected a quarter million dollar paychecks to speak for a half hour to big wall street firms made our bucks told them hey listen if he wins i'm going to beat Treasury Secretary, I'll take care of you. Oh, wait a minute.

That doesn't happen. Nah. None of that happens. Just call me disheartened. But if the market decides, if the Dow decides to go to $50,000 first, so be it.

Just remember, we let the market decide at all times. We let the market do what it wants at all times. No bias. A gender or ulterior motive. We're just letting you know. We'll be ready. That all says. you have a great evening drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Hopefully for better news tomorrow. Peace out all. Thanks for joining. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's Gary K.K. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did.

The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSC. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,

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