Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Quieting down [12.28.2023]

Episode Date: December 28, 2023

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Thursday. It is the 28th. It is 2023. hope you're having a good day as we head into the end of the year of 2023 and we go to 2024. I'm still trying to figure out where the 2010 to 2020 went. And just so you know for all you youngens out there, as you get older, the days get shorter and the years go much quicker. I just want to let you know. You parents that are having kids enjoy every minute of it. Do you know why? Because in a blink of an eye, it is going to be 10. And in a blink of an eye, it's going to be 20. I still remember when we did this radio show. My kids were very little on their birthdays. People used to call up and wish them happy birthday and sing them happy birthday. We used to give out prizes to those with the best renditions. We had boy bands. We had country and western. We had some hip hop. You name it. They were calling in. It was great. And now I have one son. Oh, my God. one's 28

unbelievable the other one is 32 unbelievable and am I mistaken in saying 23 95 to 20 he'll be 28 in December my bad so just enjoy every minute

I think so much of us take it for granted the days the minutes the hours the months, the years that we have our kids, just enjoy every bit of it. Make sure you stay on top of them. Don't stop on them, but let them know the things we've tried to tell you throughout the years about drinking is not cool. Drugs suck.

You know, cool is telling others. No. Seriously, and I mean that. And the good news is we're seeing more and more of that statistics have been coming out that teens are really, you know, not as. like they used to. And let's hope that trajectory continues. Okay, just want to start with that. In case you don't know this is Investors' Edge, serious talk on you and everything that affects you, the markets, your money, the economy, jobs and all, and everything else in between with every now and then comedy injected.

But right now we don't have a lot of comedy because there's too much strife going on in certain areas around the globe. We've been covering it. We pull no punches. You know where we see. stand and we're stunned but yet not stunned at some of the things we are seeing of the ignorant and the stupid and the moronic and the followers just hope one day they get it but as we tell you here tick-tac-toe tick-tac-toe you can never win the game so you don't play it i wouldn't even debate any of them and you know what we're talking about next if you do not get this radio show in your city. We'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on a Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you want to follow us on Twitter, go to Twitter, press the button and

join us. And email me, just be nice and pretty much everybody's nice. And we made this little offer in the last week. We're going to make it again one more time because, wow, we're getting a lot of donations and some sizable ones to the Boys and Girls Clubs of Central Florida. So what we did, we put together a one-hour webcast. And it's the most. important webcast we can ever put together we define bull and bear markets not in opinion but in physicality what do they physically look like and how do they top how do they go through the process of the bear market and how do they bottom and we did it all in one hour by showing you pictures of what a bear market looks like and what a

bull market looks like and why what exactly happens what's a moving average what why is it's so meaningful? And we sent it to our peeps that, you know, they're members of ours, but we sent it out to the public. We wanted to do something for the boys and girls clubs of Central Florida, and I should have probably made it a higher price. But we said minimum of $20. How's that? You go to BGCCF.org. BGCCF.org. You want to give a thousand, go right ahead. It's a tax deductible end of the year. Go ahead and do it. And we will send you off the webcast. and we don't want you watching it. We want you studying it and keeping it and going back to it.

And if you go through your stock portfolio and you see a bunch of names that look like the bear market, you have some thinking to do versus the good news is most things are in an up trend right now into the end of October. Most things are in a downtrend. So again, BGCCF.org serving thousands of great kids. children, teens around the Central Florida area, and every dime counts. We thank you in advance. Ladies and gentlemen, we're careful with our words here. In case you do not know, we pretty much listen back to every show. And by the way, starting next week, we will be putting at garyk.com a synopsis of each radio show.

a little top five of things we said on the radio show. It's up to me to do it. It's extra, but that's okay. And we're very careful with our words. We're just going to go back to July. To July to end of October, we were bears. And we ain't using that term, but we would come on the show and say 80% of the market was in downtrends. 15% of the market was doing nothing.

Another 1% to 5% were in shape, and it was a lot. of the mega cap names. It's really the only trades we did in those months. And we actually made money while everybody got cheased. And every day we'd come on and we'd say this sector, that sector, that sector, that sector, this sector, that sector, this sector, that sector, and downtrends. And also at the time, the only thing that was decent away from some of the mega-cap kept, some of the oils, because oil prices kept going up. And then came the end of October. and we really didn't know in the last couple of days of October what we noticed that yields could not get through 5%.

And we noticed every time it tried, it got sold down. The yields, meaning bonds were bought up. And due to the fact there was this direct correlation between bond yields and the market, direct, I mean completely direct correlation. we took notice. But there was really nothing to do until November 1. That was the day we had, notice, a confirmation day. It's just another characteristic that shows up when a market's going to turn from downtrend to potentially uptread.

We use the word potentially for the simple reason. Just because you get one of these confirmation days does not mean it works. Because in the first week, if all of a sudden big selling comes in, it's going to fail. But every time we've had a bull move, one occurred. But not everyone led to a bull move. So on November 1st, we came on the show and we measured our words. I remember it well telling you, we're just letting you know we had a confirming follow-through day today. We're not sure what it means, but potentially a low is being put in the market because potentially, a highest being put in on yields.

And we had zero clue, not a clue, what kind of move we would have in two months, because who was to know that yields would crash? And I use the word crash in a good way because yields coming down is a good thing. That's the cost of capital. And in case you don't know, the cost of capital goes all the way through the food chain

from you to eye to the biggest the corporations on floating bonds. If they can float bonds at yields one or two percent lower than the highs than they were, they're saving a ton of money. It goes down to the profits. And if higher profits means higher stock prices. On top of that, mortgages went from eight. I think we're down to six, seven maybe. Not the greatest thing because we're threes, but six, seven better than eight.

as well as other loans and just up and down the food chain. On top of that, the dollar went along with it. In case you don't know, the dollar will rise as rates rise. The dollar will fall as rates fall. Go look why. We're not going to get into the whole thing on why. It's just how it works. Not a 100% correlation, but pretty darn good.

So for two months, wow. And during those two months, we had some wow days. what we call gap up days, where at 8.30 in the morning, an inflation number would come out, much better than expected, which would have yields, gap to the downside, which had markets gap to the upside. I think we had a couple of five, six hundred point days. And really, at the open, up next, we'll connect the dots. You want to hear this. This is the one only Investors Edge.

Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.

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That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. Investment advisory services offered through call bomb capital management. Economic headlines keep shifting, but the uncertainty remains. Market volatility, rising debt, and global tensions are affecting retirement accounts and long-term savings. Many Americans are turning to physical gold and silver as tangible assets to help diversify their portfolios. Preserve gold provides educational guidance, including how metals can be held in an IRA. Get your free wealth protection guide when you text IHeart to 50505. That's IHeart to 50505.

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Learn more at APU. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there, listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's. It's your happy place.

It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

So, we had a big gap day on November 2nd. We had a gap day on November 3rd. We had a gargantuan gap day on November 2nd. 14th and the areas of the market that were in big downtrends turned into uptrends. With many a stock going coast to coast, which is out of normal. We call it outliers. Stocks went from new yearly lows. Imagine that to a new yearly high. The Russell 2000 New Yearly Low into New Yearly High. Now, why would that happen?

Well, let's go to another part of the equation. Listen carefully, take notes, and we don't say that often. Because Jay Powell took rates down to nothing and kept them there. Leading to the point where in the week of March of 2020, the 10-year yield was under 4 tenths of 1%. invest in a 10-year bond and get 4 tenths of 1%. It bottomed in August of 20 at 5 tenths of 1%. So anybody who wanted any kind of yield had to go out there. The 30-year yield, 30-year yield was 1%.

Asinine, ass a 10, ass 11. By the way, brought to you by one man in his whims. one man in his whims, sheer insanity. And what happened was all these banks flush with all kinds of cash needed to make some return. So they went out long and got their arses kicked. Because the longer you go out, the bigger capital loss, if interest rates go the other way. and because Jay Powell lost all control of the bond market because the inflation he created, even though he gets no blame because he's not a politician, rates skyrocketed.

And that's where we had that bank run. You know they were blaming Silicon Valley Bank for this, that, and the other thing? No, it was Jay Powell that caused it and just bad investing, bad forced investing, to the point where Bank America over $100 billion loss on the bucks. they became quasi bond funds and his rates kept going ire the losses kept coming

and coming and coming and that's why our central bank with no money just words backstop them but what happened right at the end of October yields crashed started crashing these banks especially a lot of the regionals that are in the Russell 2000

that where bond funds got better because price of the bonds got better. And the KRE, the regional bank, it's an ETF, went from 37 at the low. It's 53 in two months. By the way, still off the highs of last January of 65. Oh, by the way, still trading where it was in 2007. But I digress. So it's these moving yields, direct correlation, which gives me a moment in time to pose the question to myself. What if, remember, they're moving targets.

What if yields start backing up in earnest? What do we mean by in earnest? Well, not just a bounce. You see, I would tell you this. it would be normal yields that are 3.85 at the close today, 10 year, to bounce up to 4, 4-1, and be in a major downtrend. But what would happen if that happened? Well, I'm just letting you know, regardless what you hear from everybody else.

You know, all the bulls are out now, patting themselves on the back when they were drinking a lot of Maylocks in October and taking Xanax, unless the direct correlation changes, market's going to come in. It'll correct. The financials will correct. Why? Direct correlation.

What else would happen if rates went higher? Well, the dollar would bounce also. The dollar going up is bad for multinationals here. Dollar going down. It's even helped things like 3M, which has been dead money forever. By the way, 3M stock is still trading where it did in 2012. In fact, 3M is up 20% since 2004. Man, that sucks. But I digress again. So I'm just letting you know because I know what you're seeing.

I know what you're saying. They're being paraded out now. The permables. They were crying in their soup when the market's going down. All of a sudden they're geniuses. They are so sure themselves, 2,024, 5,500 S&P. Somebody's got 6,000. Continuation. Earnings this, earnings that. Jay Powell engineered a soft landing. The dude couldn't even cook a scrambled egg. We're letting you know if rates go back up, the market will come down unless the correlation changes and as of this second has not. That's what we're here to tell you and we'll be on top of it. And as you know, we've been saying for a few days, yields are about as oversold, stretched and extended to the downside as we have

seen. And the market stretched extended to the upside and overbought as it. And overbought as we have seen. Are we at a moment? Are we getting close? Possibly. How would I know? Cracks in the armor. Cracks in the armor. What are cracks in the armor? Well, as we scan a ton, you just start to see a few here and a few there getting in trouble. You then start to see a little bit of stair step down. You start to see some advanced decline figures not as good. And then you start to see a little bit more of a process of working off the extended conditions, which by the way, is not the end of the world. I can tell you flat out right now the Dow that closed at 377. If it dropped to 367, a thousand points, not even 3%, be normal. So I don't know if I'm trying to give you a hint.

I just want to make sure you know that the market's going to do what it wants to do regardless of what they're saying right now. Up next, we'll keep going with it. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. Volatility is hitting retirement accounts and savings across the country. More Americans are exploring physical gold and silver for added diversification during unpredictable economic period. Preserve gold offers straightforward education on how precious metals can be included in an IRA. Text iHeart to 50505 for your free wealth protection guide, and with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver.

Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch

with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say, whatever a nine-year-old, wants to say. And she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there. Listening.

That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's. It's your happy place. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here.

He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. and welcome once again to Investors Edge let me take a moment to send a message to Nicky Haley The Civil War

was really all about slavery slash the economy in case you don't know there was what happened was a movement in northern states to abandon slavery

Simple as that. In the southern states, there was an economy based on agriculture. And they had these huge plantations owned by whites. And they depended on slavery to perform a bunch of whatever. Go read up. Simple as that. Go read up about it. I think Nikki Haley knew it.

but for some reason these politicians get it in their brains that they have to answer certain things a certain way. By the way, part of it also was states and federal rights, if memory serves me right. Anyway, memo to Nikki Haley. And then, of course, Lincoln, go on and on and on and on through it. It would take me about three hours. And then there's somebody I really like. I would love to buy him dinner. It just seems nice.

And he's on the other side of my aisle. My aisle, I am a balanced budget, economically conservative Republican, economically conservative Republican that is sick over Biden's $2 trillion deficit. Rokana, Congressman, is jawboning the Fed into lowering rates. and he actually made the statement that if he doesn't lower rates, he is going to reelect President Trump.

In case you don't know, politicians are not to interfere with what they call an independent Fed. And Rokaneh obviously doesn't realize the market's already doing the job. You're 3.85 on the 10-year yield. The Fed's at 5.5. How do I?

put this. They're not even the same vicinity. The Fed will be lowering rates to catch up with that. But they're going to do it at a time. Swifter if the economy falls off a cliff. Anyway, just message to Rokana. Another one that has no clue about free markets. They were all into control freaks. Oh, Jay Powell's got to do this. Jay Powell's got to do that. We got to do this. Go away. of you. You're killing us. You're destroying us. You're nothing but a headwind to us. Imagine if our government was really doing a good job and is efficient and effective. Imagine if they were. We'd be doing 8, 9, 10 GDP, but guess what? Their power base is us. And if they don't have enough of us, $2 trillion deficit this year. From Joe Biden who got off vacation yesterday and went on

vacation today. He's in St. Croix. After being on vacation before that, God Almighty, man, oh man. Nobody worse than this man. And he gets to pat himself on the back because GDP's strong when it's our GDP, not his. It's our economy, not his. of us wake up every day to go to work every day. What does he do? He hardly even works. How often do we even see him? I move on. So we really weren't trying to give you a hint. We're just letting you know, we think we're probably close to a little bit of give back. We think we're probably close. We think we're probably close. to some bounce in yields and the dollar,

which means the market will probably pull back some. That said, the technical condition is such that controlled pullbacks will be the best thing the market can do. A controlled bounce in yields is really the best thing that can do. If it worsens, we'll let you know. We're just letting you know. We think we're close. That's all.

That is short-term talk. It is not big-picture talk. The short-term is the trees, not the forest. There's only certain areas that are still in not-so-great shape. Most other areas are in up-tree. friends of differing levels. But if I'm able to come on this show and say to you, which I cannot yet, semiconductors have topped, financials have topped. If you hear that from me, that's when you'll know. We'll have some corrective work in the market. And of course, we'll see what kind. If in fact,

that does occur, we're just letting you know we think probably we're getting near. And I'm I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to say that in that we're due. We're just due. That's all. Take it for what it worth, what it's worth. And of course, we'll be on every day to guide you. Today, the Dow was up 53. The S&P was up one.

NASDAQ down four. NASDAQ 100 down 8. Transports down 23. Advanced declines were flat, a little bit down on the NASDAQ. oils. So we have been mentioning oils to you. We're on watch to see if the worst is over. We're not sure. They've been rallying up a little bit. They still remain in trend, not big down, but trends still.

And they rallied up into the declining 50-day moving average. And if you go watch that webcast, if you donate to the Boys and Girls Clubs of Central Florida, you'll see what we mean about bearish phases and rallying up into the decline. declining 50-day moving average and just let you know that's what the oils did today they ran right into the 50 day and as of the second failed and why oil prices down a couple of bucks today so oil stock's not a great day gold since so many so many your interest still can't get above that big gigantic big gigantic range going back years getting it's close It's close.

And you can watch it in the GLD and the P.HYS. They're just two ETFs. PHYS. They say that's the physical and whatever. You can look at both. They pretty much look the same. But gold stocks, for the most part, continue to very much underperform the metal.

Through the years, that's what's been going on, which has me a little perplexed. But I just deal with the market. decides for us. So just giving you a little bit of movement today. Just a little teeny bit. Just a little teeny bit as we head into the new year. And just so you know, we measure our words very carefully and we don't say things to say things. We say things because we mean them. And we try to put them in tones of vicious versus not, meaning vicious move down and up versus not. And we'll see what tomorrow brings as we head into the year.

Why we have an open market tomorrow beats the hell out of me. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, I'm Gary. This is the one only investors' edge. The record U.S. debt, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and constant market swings. Many people are rethinking how to protect their savings. Physical gold and silver have been used for generations during uncertain times to diversify, not replace traditional investments. Preserve gold helps Americans understand these options.

Text IHeart to 50505 to get your free wealth protection guide and explore how precious metals may fit into your retirement planning. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.

Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half. and hands me a piece. I opened my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say.

And she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there, listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's,

it's your happy place. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Hitch.

With Gary, Duh-na, da-na, da-na. I'm still waiting to hear if Russia's going to tour again. They kind of telegraphed it, that they're looking to find a drummer or have a drummer, and they're going to tour. Boy, oh, boy, would that make me happy? Because all the rest of my favorite bands are old as dirt. But amazingly, some of them...

Man, Mick Jagger. I saw him a year and a half ago at Hyde Park in London. It was about a year and a half. Let's see. Yeah, about a year and a half. He was 78 at the time. Holy crap. He was moving like a 22-year-old.

Unbelievable. Tell you, keep in shape. Keep in shape, ladies and gentlemen. At any age you can do it. And you know how you know it? For all of you out there, just go on any site about training. transforming and see what people are doing. You know what they do. No more whoppers, no more large fries and onion rings.

No more 4,000 calorie meals. No more beer. Oh, Gary, you're getting rid of all the fun. Well, you have to decide on your health. Simple as that. Where do you want to be? And we do have a very, I think, from what I, just the view as I walk through airports and go to a rea. You know, a lot of people need to, you know, do you know how much health care spending dollars we would save? If Jess, we get a 10% improvement from the masses on weight, oh my goodness gracious. It's gargantuan. Gargantuan. If you just drop the alcohol. Holy crap

Just the alcohol Anyway Don't mean to preach But I think I know what I'm talking about Just remember Miss the logic In the news You know

There are days Where there's just not a lot of news Not a lot going on just today Except the things that have just continued to go on Which wish we It would stop like a New York City restaurant. They have three of them.

A newly owned open New York City restaurant, it's a Palestinian restaurant. Has an anti-Semitic seafood menu titled From the River to the Sea. Yet the owners say, Oh, we don't mean anything by it. What? You don't mean anything by it?

Kiss mine. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. Yeah, let's just kill all the Jews. And let's have it on our menus. And then tell everybody, oh, we don't mean anything by it. I saw that today. What, they think of the...

That's going to help business? That stood out for me today. And then these JFK blocking JFK airport, LA Airport, do you know they arrested these people? Do you think they got arrested with felonies? by the way, I think you got terrorism in there, threatening, stopping commerce, insurrection. We heard that word before. No, they're being cited.

And then they're going to do it again. And then one day they're going to block an ambulance and when somebody having a heart attack and they're going to die because these ass clowns are blocking the roads. and will they be charged with accessory, the murderer, manslaughter? No, they'll probably get a lollipop. And therein lies the problem. As we tell you, Mr. Logic, it's very simple how you stop crime. You punish the crime. And you make the punishment enough that the next person has to think twice about doing the crime.

Mr. Logic. Interesting, huh? All these shoplifters do you? think they would keep doing it if you are, if it was in felony, indicted with a felony, mugshot, and minimum stay in jail. You're going to have to go to jail if found guilty. Minimum, whatever it is. They'd stop.

But no, we're reading about people that have been shoplifting and arrested 34 times and let go with no bail. and they go 35th time, why would they care? And that's what worries me. Selective. That's what's going on. That's in the news. Every day.

And you don't have to look for it. It just shows up. It's in many cities now. And you know what the good thing we're seeing, though? Citizens are finally pissed off. And they're trying to do something about it. and even Democrats in Democrat cities that let this occur are getting pissed. And for the life of me, I have no idea while the leaders of these cities let it go on.

And of course, they'll let it go on until it affects their lives. And then they'll think twice. You know, it's big in D.C. now? Carjacking. Do you know they're given instructions to drivers in D.C.? on how to avoid the carjackers. Watch yourself at lights. Be careful. Look to the left and right and behind you.

Lock your doors. Do you believe in Washington, D.C.? You have to be instructed on how to avoid carjackers. It's true. We're not making this up. That's Washington, D.C. Where the president is. And have you heard him say a word about it?

I can news if I was the president. That wouldn't be going on in D.C. But I digress. One more day for the year. We will be back tomorrow. Keep on listening. Have a great evening. Drive carefully.

When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise to the last day of the year trading. Have a great night, everybody.

I'll be on with Cavuto. Noon tomorrow. Fox Business. Have a great one. Bye, bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong, passion. Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu.edu. So what do this animal, and this animal, and this animal, have in common? They all live on an organic valley farm. Organic Valley dairy comes from small organic family farms that protect the land and the plants and animals that live on it from toxic pesticides, which leads to a thriving ecosystem and delicious, nutritious milk and cheese.

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