Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - QUITE THE WEEK IN REVIEW!

Episode Date: November 4, 2022

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host.

A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's November 4th. It's Friday. And I'm cool that it's Friday. I don't have a lot of blood in the game. I don't know.

with other people are going through. But there was a lot of money lost this week. And today, a little bit, a decent comeback. And I'll get into today's action in the markets. But first, if you do not get this show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. And if you want to join us on Twitter,

it's quite simple. Press the button at our website, garyk.com. Or go to Twitter and put our name in. It's now owned by Elon Musk. Yay. And thanks for being with us. Really appreciate it. Did I say you can email me? Just Be Nice.

I don't think I did. Yeah, just be nice. And everybody is. I thank you for that. The markets. Let's start with that. It's not the Dow. The S&P, NASDAQ, NASDAQ, 100, Russell, 2000.

It's 200 sectors and subsectors. it's countries, its commodities. Our screens follow it all. We have certain terminology that we use. Today is one of those days. What we will do is call it an extraordinary two-way tape with a good outcome after a not-so-good potential outcome. But that's today.

What's the big picture? That's important. I'm going to bring up some things today that I don't usually talk about a lot, except we've talked about it in the last year, that will be mentioned today, and that is the dollar. Gives a crap about the dollar. We do. We'll explain why.

We'll talk the election. We'll talk. You know, when we tell you, seriously, when we tell you, when we tell you, we can't stand any of them anymore. There's a reason. They've all proven it. We'll do a little bit of that today, and I'll explain that too. But let's get going with it, because I have a lot to discuss today. The market wrap is brought to by Investment-Models.com.

That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market times. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. With his proprietary indicators, go check it out. Investment-models.com. So if you don't mind, if you don't mind, I'm going to do the Dow. Today. Because I want to let you know. No. Today, the Dow pretty much open, about 350 points higher. On the open, at 1045, it was up 615 points.

At 1205, by the way, we're not making this up. At 1205, it was down 33 points. 615 by 1045 down 33 points at 1205. At 220, it was still 1,948, still down about 40 points. I sent out a note to my peeps. Just let you know this thing is paper thin today. We would not be surprised if they just hit this thing up because of what we were seeing. And we'll explain the minute.

At 220, we were at 31948. We rallied up in 20 minutes at 350 points. Make that 300. And we ended up 401. 402 for the day. Gap up 350, up 650. up 615, down 49, up 402 at the close. That was today.

The laboring NASDAQ opens up today, up 205. By 950, not making this up, it was up 2. By 1045, it was back up 205. By 1205, it was down 50. Then the rest of the day it sat around until that 220 point, it was down 50 and rallied back up to be up 132 with a nice little boost in the last minute. No, really. Went up like 40 points in the last minute. Good, huh? Let me tell you good. What do we say to you about a two-way tape?

Today, Atlassian down 50 to 123. The Symbol's team, this was a leading software company. Ubiquity, down 28, 8%. That was near the highs. Service now down 24. By the way, this is off the lows. They rallied them. the last hour remember that twillio down 23 or 34 percent that's another software malina health member managed care this was the one that wasn't acting so well down 23 bucks today paycom down 20 six percent snowflake down 18 12 percent crowd strike down 14 10 percent end phase what was that one of those leading uh solar stocks down 14 was down about 20 market rallied it up. AutoZone 13, Medpace 13, HubSpot 13, Mongabee 12, ICF International 12.

How about this Funko? Down 59% to $8. AMN Health 11, Uman 11, leading managed care. Z-scaler, another software, 10. Wix.com, 10, build.com, 10. Appellus Pharmaceuticals, 10. Does it sound like a Dow that was up 400 at a NASDA? up 132.

Argenics down 10. Cloudfare, Net, down 9, 18%. I think this stocks down about 80% from the highs. Paylossity 9, Nextdoor Media, 9, Netflix. 8 and change. Tesla, 8. What? With the NASDAQ up 132, the Dow 5-400? Workday 8, Appfolio, 7-5, Palo Alto Network, 7-5.

Remember, these are off the lows. Analynt Pharmaceuticals, either the sevens, Alamo Group, Sevens, U.S. cellular, CyberArc, Elevance Health, another managed care stock. Census health care. Let's do the six. How about a Dowstocks? Salesforce.com. Down six and a half. Murphy, USA, 6.

Clearfield, 6. Yelp, 6. Solar Edge, another one, 6. Carvana. Get ready for this? Down 38%. Here's the interesting story. on Carvana. And this is true. As the stock was going higher, all I kept telling you,

I'm not buying this. They sell cars out of a vending machine. How is that going to work? And the stock skyrocketed. They kept losing a ton of money, but the stock skyrocketed. but they kept losing a ton of money but the stock skyrocketed bubbles it is now gone from 376 to 8 in change and there's a lot of talk out there about them and how much money they lose

remember one of the rules in bare markets curtains come down on anything that loses money and if you lose a ton doesn't matter what you sell Up next, a little bit more on this. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living,

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It doesn't get better than this. Well, that's Carvanna. A bunch of fives, a bunch of fours, a bunch of threes. The advanced declines were crappy but got better towards the end of the day. All I can tell you, on a day where the NASDAQ was up 132, and the NASDAQ 100 up 166, my whole, what I call high beta software, cloud. tech screen looks like the NASDAQ was down 130 so how is the NASDAQ up 130 today the SOX was up 105 it's a good day for the semiconductors good rebound let me give you for instance

today and we're gonna go in a little neck deep to give you an idea lamb research was up 26 today for instance good day you got that it just got back what it lost not only got back 26 of the 28 dollars it just lost from wednesday broadcom up 21 today good day got 21 on wednesday it was 480 it closed at 465 today you catch in the drift kLA 10 core was up 13 today is a buck higher than wednesday got trashed but other things much worse you ready for this before today apple this week in four days i didn't even realize it i may have mentioned it yesterday but if i didn't if i did i'm mentioning them apple was down 10.8 percent this week and finished down today what how did apple finish down

today if the NASDAQ 100 was up 166 it's weak apple finished down 11% this week unbelievable 11.15 Microsoft this week finished down 6.14% was down 9% before today Microsoft bounced a little bit today 7 bucks about 3 and a half percent Netflix on the week down 11.8% and was down again today. Tesla on the week, 9.61% was down again today. Amazon coming into today, down 13.64% and was only up a buck 68 today. That still 12% this week.

Google down 10% this week and it was up a $1.60% this week, and it was up about 4% today. It was 13 in change. Holy crap, huh? And you know how far these things are off the highs. Even Apple now is down 25% off the highs. So it was the semiconductors. And as I look at the socks,

for the week, it was still down 1.9% after rallying up decently today. And I'll have to look those over. Main trend in the semi-conductors. conductors remains pretty bad and pretty far down, but good day. That's what did the trick today for the NASDAQ, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and Microsoft was up seven, Google was up three. Did I even mention Facebook? Do I even need to anymore? Facebook on the week down 8.5%. It's up two bucks today. Qualcomm bounced $2.80 today. Qualcomm for the week, 11%. So imagine you only only only. You only

these great names, these big tech, magnificent, great names. You're crushed. And if you had them for the year, double crushed. Quadruple crushed. So that was the NASDAQ today. That I mentioned that VATIA bounced a little bit today, but that's still also way, way, way down. And they report in 12 days. So what happened with the Dow? Well, we've been telling you, The Dow has been leading. The other stuff's been lagging. It did it again today. We even name some names that have gone what we call U-shaped.

The money flows. Guess what? Caterpillar, up eight and a half today. That was one of them. Honeywell, Honeywell, up three and a half today. You got the bounce out of Microsoft. What was the other one? McDonald.

That was up a buck 60 today. And we had a couple of outliers. Nike stock has been acting terribly. Big bear market decided to be up five today. Didn't see any news. The financials, Goldman Sachs up nine, J.P. Morgan, up three and a half. They're acting pretty well. No argument there.

And both of them got back what they lost in the last two days and a little bit more. a stunning two-way tape we're out of the box I'm giving you all these names by the way there are plenty more I could have mentioned that were crushed today amazing but on the other end of the spectrum

a very good day in the semis a very good day in the financials a very good day in the commodities transports are up a couple of percent we call them stuff the stuff areas very good day. What would cause the stuff areas to have a very good day?

Well, we've talked to you about what we call direct correlations. Direct correlations. What does that mean? If something happens, it makes something else happen. Simple as that. Turn on your dishwasher, it cleans the dishwash. Well, hopefully. Open the refrigerator. You get something cold.

Well, the good news is my parents finally got that refrigerator. Do you know it took how many weeks? September 10th to October 28th. And on the fourth delivery, everything working great. Yay. That was the story for another day. but very good day in these other areas, but also a ton of jello moving on the plate on the earnings front.

And you better be on your game because when the market hits something right now on earnings, it plays no favorites. Of course, we've had the other side also. That's up next. On this, the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Cowboys. Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen. in apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step

closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella ball. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Okay. So just to give you an idea on earnings, Tupperware was down 46% this week. Atlassian symbol team. A pass leader. Down 38% this week. Twilio. Down 43% this week.

Paycom. Ah, that's okay. 11% this week. Gee, that's good. Funko, down 62%. By the way, this is a leisure toys. If you go to their website and check them out, guess what type of companies I never buy,

and I've missed some good moves? Fadish-type stuff, simple as that. Beyond meat. Certain toys. How about Appian Corp, down 23%. I mentioned Carvana. on the week, only 39%. Draft Kings, 25%.

And who saved your butt on that stock? I did. You remember that, right? What did I tell you? What was my line? They're just a bookie. It's like the lottery. How do you get paid out from the lottery?

The losers. Draft Kings. How do you get paid out? the losers and if there's too many losers what are the losers eventually do they stop playing but I got to tell you they've expanded so well do you know revenues are up 136 percent but do you also know that they I'm gonna make sure I get this right they lost a dollar a share for the quarter that there's shares outstanding 841 million they lost 841 million dollars

on $501 million in sales? No wonder the stock dropped 28% and is now $11 down from $65. What do we tell you about doing your homework? But here's the next part of the equation. I have something new for you. I have a potential change for you. I have something new that you should probably

look over this weekend. As you know, nothing is ever written in stone. Nothing is ever 100%. here is my disclaimer as I'm very smart to give disclaimers because the regulators God bless them for working their tails off I've got a heed to the regulators and make sure I cover my butt and that's a good thing too many think regulators are against you they're there to keep you safe and doing the right thing so the disclaimer is

we're not telling you to buy sell short or cover anything We're just telling you what we're seeing And we let you decide We plead with you to do your homework On anything we say And we're very careful about what we say here That's why we talk big picture And that's why we also talk

Hey today That's why we say today is the trees It's a one on a scale of one to ten I stole that line from the great Stan Weinstein The forest, that's the big picture. What's the main trend? What's the big trend? You know, the trend that's kept you out of trouble in the bare market?

So today, something happened. Listen carefully. Our dollar against all currencies is still in a main trend, up trend. But as of five weeks ago, hits a high, and may have, may have. hit that wall. In case you don't know and you should look it up there is a direct correlation between commodities and the dollar. A strong dollar hurts commodities a weak dollar helps commodities go look it up. Commodity stocks have not been in very good shape at all. We're talking about golden silver, copper and the like.

Well, we're letting you know today if you go look at a chart of copper, JJC, it's one that trades. It looks like it may have turned up today, a good looking one. Now, mind you, JJC only trades 35,000 shares a day and is only $18.60. So it is not liquid at all. I'm glad I'm telling you that. But it also represents the move. and if you just get a chart of copper, it'll pretty much show the same. So guess what?

Guess what charts look like that? Freeport, MacMoran, Copper, and Gold, JJC. Looks that way. How about something called Southern Copper, SCCO? Looks that way. You catch in the drift? That's what happened today. and I'm going to be paying attention to it moving forward.

In fact, I keep my screens based on these moves. So I added these names to my front screen today, not as leadership, but as possible turning. On top of that two other commodity names I follow closely, Rio Tinto, RIO, and BHP, look kind of that way also. Now remember, commodities are tricky mothers. They are subject to so many different things around the globe.

What somebody says, what somebody does in outer parts of Mongolia. But we're just letting you know you had that day today. By the way, on top of that, oil prices, this is not good news. When you have a chance go look at USO, it looks like that wants to start coming up the right side again what's the right side you hit a high you come down you sit around in and around the same price and then you start turning up that may have happened today and that's not good news for you guys with anybody with anything petroleum based 92 and a half bucks up almost four and a half bucks today so that's a negative oil stocks though

interesting, on a strong oil day, oil stocks were up and hot early, finish mixed at the close. Gold had a good day. Go look at GLD, go look at GDX, and you could go look at silver SLV, which looks better than gold. SLV, the silver looks like JJC, the copper. The gold, not yet. you know we're telling you and we use the word potential potential change today may be some sort of a confirming move in the dollar down commodities up maybe always want to see a couple of more cards come out of the deck on that but that's a change and we must add if the dollar keeps coming down that's good for multinationals here go look that up why Is it a weaker dollar good for the United States multinationals?

Google will give you that answer. Just letting you know. That was today, ladies and gentlemen, in a nutshell. Financial's good and semiconductors good. Kept the market in good stead, gave it a chance to rally up into the clothes. The stuff today good. That's commodity types, economically sensitive types, transport types. Keep in mind, they had a pretty rough couple of days before,

coming into today and I have yet to do my scans. Keep in mind that growth, software, high beta technology acts like the south end of a northbound jackass. And I think that's being nice. And Apple today with the NASDAQ 100 up 166 still finished down. The good news though, Apple hit a low today. By the way, Apple was up three on the open, four at the low, so it had a $7. move today. What's seven times 16? 7-217.7.7.7.422 billion market cap of Apple moving up and down today. Still finish down 50 cents. And still in of bearish mind. Just some stunning crap going on. Oh, did I mention the leaders? I got to mention that next. And then a little bit of news of the day. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors at you.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, Ready go. Action! In the Chester's Edge with Gary Culpa. You know what was interesting today? So we've been telling you daily, just letting you know the relative strength are these areas. What is relative strength mean?

It means, oh, these are the whole market's down 20, 30, 40 percent. These are within 5 percent of yearly highs. It does not mean they will stay with relative strength. We're just reporting to you. They hit a lot of those today. Seriously, they hit a bunch of those today. That was all weird. So this weekend, just so you know, what I do is I click on my little Thompson.

I go to Market Pulse. I put in the word H-I for highs on the week. And I will first start with the NASDAQ and see what's at New Yearly Hyes and why. Monster beverage is at new yearly highs. There you go. Energy, diamond back energy, new yearly highs. Gilead Sciences, New Yearly Highs. Packar.

That's one out of the ordinary, new yearly highs. In insurance, principal financial group, newly yearly highs. And I cull them, C-U-L. Then I go to the NYS. By the way, there's not many on the NASDAQ. and then I go to the NYSC and see what's there. And you know what I see?

Schlumberger, Exxon, Conoco, Chevron, EOG resources, Permian Resources, Marathon Petroleum, Enterplus. Guess what they all are? Energy. And of course, we've been telling you energy. But they all finished off the highs today, and the ConocoPhillips actually finished down today. And then we put all these on the front screen.

And you know what the problem for this market still is? growth leadership ain't squat in fact growth led down this week and a bunch stayed down in fact the big mega caps you know we talk about 40% of the NASDAQ 100 guess what they look like a horror show some bounce today some didn't now we're told by the bulls hey and the year seasonality It's got to be long. Okay. I'll let the market prove itself. You know how the market proves itself?

It stops going down. Can we have a market for a while where this stuff, as I say, the caterpillars, honeywells, keep going while these other areas stay dead or trashed? All I know right now, they are. And it just started in the last week, by the way. Just remember the bottom with the market bottom. 13. That was a Thursday. Confirmed on October 21st, the Friday. We'll see. On the earning front, earnings front, just a ton of jello moving on the plate. Hey, gap up 15. Oh, this one's gaping down

15%. So we're careful. The other part of the equation is China. Brutal, gargantuan bear market. Remember when it had some relative strength a few months ago? We said, just let you know China's relative strength. We ain't buying it. Why? you trust them? So there was rumor overnight that they're going to do better. The Chinese government will not be as strict on COVID, this, that, and the other thing, and it got bought up. I did not see any facts of that. You know what? I have seen video of Disney, of Disney in Shanghai. Stopping people from leaving or if they don't pass a test of COVID, they can't leave. Really? So we'll see.

Guess what? The Chinese ADRs bounce today. And maybe that has something to do with the semiconductors having a strong day. Keep in mind, the Chinese and its American depository receipts, that's what they're called. Alibaba, the Amazon of China. That person doesn't know I'm on radio. has gone from 319 down to 69 bucks. And that's at the close today and being up 10% this week. Just remember all that.

And let's finish it off. You're going to be inundated about the election this coming Tuesday. Oprah backs the Democrat in Pennsylvania. What's his name, Federman, the guy who had a stroke and all the credit to him having a stroke. stroke and doing what he's doing is amazing. Oprah political? Never done that before. That was quite interesting. Oprah, who cares so much about citizens, this guy wants to release a ton of criminals. Just saying. So you're going to hear from a lot of people this weekend on the election.

Just remember, listen carefully. Through all the elections, We're now with 31 trillion of debt. Just remember that. They're killing us. They're putting us in hock. And then they're all retiring. And the next person that comes in promises to do better. And they don't.

Climate change versus debt. Climate change is a 100 on a scale. One in the highest, 100 the lowest. debt is a one. The crisis will be the debt going forward. The crisis is the money printing. The crisis is the control freaks in Washington, D.C., and we keep exchanging control freaks for control freaks.

Oh, and now Trump on November 14th is going to announce his candidacy for the presidency again. Another control freak. He was only six. Six trillion in debt in four years. Just want you to remember that. I really think in front of the camera, they're cursing each other out, and behind the camera, they're laughing their asses off at us. The numbers tell us, though.

On to next week. Have a great weekend, drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

Get some exercise in. Alcohol's overrated. marijuana sucks. They just want the money for taxes and all that. Until Monday, peace out all. Thanks for you the kind wishes. Take care. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.