Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Regional Banks Drag The Market Lower [10.16.2025 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: October 16, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com, Code Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan. In for Gary Kay, who's out today.

Today is Thursday, October 16, 2025, and we have a great show for you tonight. As always, we want to thank you very much for being here. Before we dive into the show, and there's a lot to cover today, As you know, this is a show about you and your money and all the fun points in between. Just as a quick reminder, if you don't get the show in your city, you can go to GaryK.com, listen live or archive. We are live Monday through Friday, 6 or 7 Eastern. Also at GaryK.com. You can follow Gary on X, formerly known as Twitter by just pressing the button.

You can subscribe to Gary's morning notes sent directly to your inbox. You can email Gary about his money management services. Or if you want his premium posts, you can subscribe to Conviction, Leaders.com. There he shares play-by-play action with his members throughout the trading day, and he gives daily webcasts showing you the actions. You can see what he sees and see things happening in real time and see the market from his point of view. All of that with a free trial is available at convictionleaders.com. All right. So lots of notes from Gary. I'm going to read them really right at the front to make sure I cover everything because again, I'm the messenger.

so I want to make sure I do my job, make sure that the message is conveyed accordingly and properly. But the big headline today is the volatility that began last Friday continues. And typically after a big move up, which we've seen now over the last several months, we're even going back all the way back to April's low or, you know, the market's been up every single month since. We've had a huge move up. I mean, ginormous, right? So what happens? It's normal and healthy to see the market pause, consolidate, digest that pullback.

And we saw that we're pulled into the 50-day moving average earlier this week or a few days ago. And then bounce. It didn't touch the 50. But after a big move up, what's the message here? We're seeing heightened volatility. Yes, it's a little some nervousness or some jitters before the thick of earning season. but typically when you see big wild swings, typically, not always, but lots of times,

that shows you that investors are getting nervous. It doesn't mean a big selloff is coming or a crash. It doesn't, you know, none of the, it's just, oh, okay, volatility is picked up. If you notice, these big wild swings weren't happening over the last few months. And it means all things being equal, of course, and we'll see what the news is and what happens. every day, that, okay, maybe a little bit of it. For me, Adam, I'm taking a little bit more

of a defensive stance because the big move up, now it's consolidation time, especially when we see volatility start swinging. So it started last Friday. It's continued every day this week. Today, the big headline, regional banks, two of them specifically had concerns about bad loans. and that followed earlier in the week. There was some other issues with credit and so on and so forth. Zion's Bank, ticker symbol Z-I-O-N. And we have W-A-L. So those are the two banks, the regional banks that drag the market lower midday today.

Zion's Bank Corp is Z-I-O-N. That's down double digits. And then W-A-L, which is Western Alliance Bank Corp, same thing, down to. double digits. And what happened was they both reported or news came out that there's some bad loans, possibly fraud on their books. One of the banks, the collateral that the client had used wasn't there. And the other ones that they had a $15 million, whatever, you know, just some new, some disconcerning news, some bad news from regional banks about the health of their books and possible credit. So the KRE, which is the ETF that tracks regional banks, got crushed

today. It broke below the 200-day moving average on ginormous volume. So that's one big, you know, message. The regional banks are the clear headlines. If you want to dive in deeper, you can read the news anywhere online. It's all over the financial news. All right. Other banks as well were taken down because there's concern brewing that, hey, maybe that the credit strength of the economy isn't as strong as we expected. Jeffries, J-E-F. It's not regional bank, but that's down. Same thing, had a big move, distribution showing up. It broke the 200 day about a week and a half ago, maybe two weeks now. Let's see, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight trading days ago.

And now it's breaking down even more, going back towards the April low. So there's a concern here, clearly a concern. The XLF, which is the big banks, not the regional banks, broke the 50-day moving average a few days ago, rallied back into it, hit the 21 day, hit the 50, stumbled yesterday near the 50, and then boom, collapsed today. heading towards a 200 day. That's the big bank. So clearly people are concerned about the health of the economy and about the banks, the loans. All right. For now it's news for the day. We'll see if this spreads and gets worse. That's that's for the regional banks. All right. Next, gold going vertical,

parabolic, whatever word you want to use, going up ginormously. It is super extended. If you look at GLD, it's one of the most extended moves we've seen in gold in decades. Last time it had this kind of a run was 2011 to 2012, like that kind of time period. 2011, really. And then go back before that, Comaides had a big run in the early 2000s, go back decades ago. And to the 70s, 80s, that kind of move. But gold is just super, super, super extended. The GLD is 17% above its 50-day moving average.

That is huge for a big ETF, like gold. Super extended. I'm expecting once this move the bubble pot, not bubble, but once the move pops, you know, we can get just as quick on the way up, easily get a pull back into the 21-day moving average or into the 50-day. So, you know, there's a headline that came out today. Oh, gold's at a new all-time high. Should I buy it?

In my opinion, not right now. Let it consolidate. I don't like buying things that, you know, after a big move-up. I know that's the temptation, that's human nature, that's when people want to be buying it. But for me, I've learned things ebb and flow. And if you buy late, you know, if you chase, which is essentially buying gold up here, in my opinion, is chasing it. It doesn't end well over a long enough period of time. All right.

So that's the second thing Gary want to mention. Third, Oracle, ORCL, had a huge move in the middle of the day today because at an analyst meeting or an analyst conference, they had, hey, our cloud numbers are up. and so on and so forth and some good news there. Boom, the stock jumped. So that was a big move. Something we'll keep on the radar or watching. It had a ginormous gap up back in September when they reported earnings on the 10th of September. It was up, I think, 35, 36 percent, something like that in a day, making Larry Ellison, the head of Oracle, the richest guy in the world, richer than Elon Musk.

So, huge move up. Then it's been consolidating since then. All right, you've got volatility. I'm going to check in the notes from Gary, Oracle, gold, regional banks. Money flowing into semiconductors, AI, data storage, etc. It's a theme, you know, areas to look at and areas to avoid. You know, that's one area to look at that are working for now. Excuse me, that could change, but for now those areas are working.

And then at 1043 a.m. today, Eastern, on conviction leaders, Gary published a report, which I'll read to you, Areas to avoid. The title of the report is what is not? If you are a member, you can log in and click on the archive section and read it. But here you go. In past weeks, we've highlighted quite the few areas that we consider to be in downtrends, in bearish phases, in bare markets of differing levels. Every now and then you get bounced, but we continue to notice when markets weaken just a bit,

these areas are weak and their patterns just sell off hard, right? There's just a lot of weakness. So at the point of being repetitive, he's mentioned this before, he's saying we've already began seeing some distribution in areas like insurance, housing, airlines, cruise lines, hotels, travel. Look at booking.com, which is price lines pairing, BKNG. Good amount of retail. Some have bounced, but overall, not good. Auto dealers, private equity names, and now the financials with the regional banks. Food, beverage, tobacco, household products, and alcohol.

some exchanges, waste management, still plenty of medicals that are not in good shape. Healthcare, some are off the lows, managed care. UNH has been better since the crash, but it's still under some pressure. Restaurants just got mowed down and casinos look to have topped also. So again, the good news is money is still flowing into the tech AI semi areas, but these are lists that are to be, you know, that he's avoiding because, you can do when you avoid the bad, you're way, way ahead. That was the update of, you know, in the morning, this today after the open. Again, knowing where to be in the market, it's just as

important as knowing where not to be. Think of it like a zero point. If you start digging a hole, you're negative. You got to go down. The whole idea is risk and reward. It's binary. It's either you're risking, you know, you're going down, you're losing, or you're going up. You get a reward, right? You're risking money for the potential of a future reward. Well, if you to dig out of a hole. Let's say you have a lot of losses and big losses. You're down 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 percent. To get back to even requires a huge move up. So the idea is avoid those areas. So you're not digging a deeper hole for yourself. And we can get on the reward side of that equation. All right. That was a lot. Those are all the notes from Gary. So for today, again, just putting things in perspective, I've got a lot more to cover. But it was a very busy news day. So I wanted to make sure. I got the news out there for you front and center so you know what's happening. All right. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover.

I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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Everybody games. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion. of quality programming with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryKK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen at your convenience anytime you want from any device. I know sometimes I speak fast. It's a lot to say. So much of saying, so little time. But I appreciate everybody being here. Again, you can go to GaryKah.com.

You can rewind, fast forward, listen what I said over and over and over again. All right. So knowing the areas to avoid is really important. Knowing areas to focus on is important. Now, let's talk about my favorite part. I'm not on the show often, as you know, Gary covers every day. So the few times that I do come on over the course of a year, whenever he asked me to jump in, depending on the situation, of course, I like to go broad and give you some timeless advice that I've learned along the way, hopefully so it can help you. And zoom out, right, the 30,000 few foot of what I see, because I'm not. on often. So when I'm on, I'd like to give you guys, you know, something tangible that you can use to benefit from. So heightened volatility after a big move up, which is what's happening now. I've seen this before. It's watching the movie, right? Gary talked about when you go through charts, you look at, it's like an old photo album. You look for familiar faces, right? So watching the move, the market, it's, again, another one of those, so to speak, where we've seen these things before. So there is a possibility, notice the language, there's probabilities and there's

possibilities. Anything is possible in life. What we want to do is focus on the highest probability outcomes and plan for them and protect ourselves from the worst case scenarios, right? And that's really that simple. There's a chance that, or there's a possibility, the probability, whatever words makes you comfortable, but there's a possibility that the market has some backing and filling here. It goes into a pullback. correction where it just starts pulling back. It could break the 50. It could start getting some more distribution, especially if this regional bank situation start. There's contagion, a fancy word from 2008, which means it spreads. So if it does spread to other areas, we'll see, but there's a chance that

could happen. We get some selling. Now, even if that does happen, remember folks, the Fed is meeting soon and they're expected to cut rates. The stock market is near all-time highs. Typically, when the Fed cuts rates, that's bullish for the market. It's a tailwind and it's a strong one. Why? Because what happens is, and again, not always, is that it makes money easier to flow in the system.

So if there are problems under the surface with credit or in the economy, so on and so forth. Before the government shut down, we saw that the jobs numbers were beginning to slow down in August and some of the other months were revised lower and some pockets of weakness and the Fed came out in Jackson Hole in the summer and said, hey, we're ready to start cutting to get ahead of that slowdown. So there's a chance the economy slowing down. Tariffs are still impacting. People are paying more for that, so on and so forth. Inflation has come down a little bit but needs to come down more. Okay, great. But the door is now open for the Fed to cut. When the Fed cuts, that's bullish. So timeless lessons, the volatility is

picking up. That could lead to some wide swings in the market. And if it does, I'd like to be prepared. Somebody asked me, Adam, how do you handle, just a couple days ago, Adam, how do you handle big events? Earnings, news, government shutdown, jobs report, so on and so forth. It's a great question. Mark from Chicago. And I, Mark, if you're listening. The way that I handle it, them is I plan for them. Again, here's a timeless lesson, right? Plan for it. I don't know if the market's going to go down or up a thousand points tomorrow or next week or next month, but I can plan for the possibility of the market having a correction or a bear market or a pullback or whatever the case is. And I can plan for the possibility of the market having another leg higher or a melt-up,

right? The Fed can come out, cut aggressively, and boom, stocks are off to the races, have a very strong end of the year and beyond. Or the Fed could play hardball come out, not cut as aggressively as Trump wants, and the economy can get into some more trouble. We could, oh, the government shut down so we don't have economic data right now. It could open up and say, oh, things are really, really, really bad or whatever the case could happen, right? So anything is possible. What I want to focus on in the probabilities and then stack the odds of success in our favor. That's it. and know when I'm wrong before something happens, I have a stop. I know where I'm going to exit before I enter a position.

This way, to the best of my ability, of course, sometimes the stock gaps down on me or whatever the case is, but to the best of my ability, I'm able to protect the capital, protect the portfolio, you protect the family, so to speak, right? Once you protect the capital, you can grow. You know, in 2008, when things are going crazy, they're saying there's a return of capital and there's return on the capital. I want one, I want to be able to return of the capital. I want that money to grow. I want capital appreciation.

In order for that return on the capital to grow, I've got to protect the capital itself. And again, keeping those laws as small as a superpower. Now, when you do that, there's a delicate balance of how tight is a stop. If it's too tight, you just get chopped up, chopped up, chopped up. So again, it depends on everybody's risk tolerance. What I like to do is position size the position properly before I place a stop. But the stop is anywhere from 5 to 7% below my entry point. You know, 2, 3%, I've found, for me, it's just too tight.

the stock's going to go down after I buy it two, three, four, five percent. It happens, right? So depending on the stock's volatility, like how wide and loose are those swings? What's the average true range? What's the, it's a fancy word for Walter? What is the normal swing in that stock? Because every stock behaves differently, right? Some low biotech company might be, or high flying, you know, quantum computing stock might

be up and down four, five, six, seven, eight percent in a day. multiple times. But you find a Coca-Cola or a Pepsi, for that to move 7, 8% is huge and like abnormally huge for that stock. So again, know the stock, know the behavior. In finance, there's something called know-your-c-c-rule, the K-Y-C rule. You got to know-your-customer. Give them investments that are suitable for them. 80-year-old grandmother's risk tolerance is different than a 25-year-old, you know, a single person.

So same thing with your stocks. Know the volatility. Is this stock going to move 3%? Is that normal in a given day? Or is a 1% move big for that stock? Right? So again, know where you're at. You just have to look at the past, you know,

several months of trading action and you could see it. So that's that. So just, again, it's more of a spirit of the law, not the letter of the law. I'm not giving specifics as I've got to measure this and do that formula. I'll just ballpark it. In the last, you know, eyeball, the last 30 days, 60 days, 100 days or so, look at the percent changes and guesstimate it.

That's how I do it. You can get more granular if you want. I just guesstimate. And then, okay, I buy it. If it goes down 7 percent, I'm out. No questions asked. It goes down 5 percent. Either I'm out, no questions asked, or I begin scaling back or trimming or whatever word

you want to use, reducing the position. Some people reduce it 357. You know, however you want to do it, you don't have to blow out of the whole thing at once. You can keep some, but just scale back a little bit as it's going against you. However you want to do it or just blow out all at once. But again, the important thing here, folks, it's having a plan and being prepared for all possible scenarios. Remember, the market only go up down or sideways. That's a beauty of this, where you keep it really simple.

All right, everybody. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. Hope that was helpful. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only investors at it. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

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The crowd is just on his feet here. with Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan and for Gary Kaye, who's out today. If you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com or wind fast forward.

Listen at your convenience on any device you want. All right, a few things to keep in mind, folks. We spoke about volatility. Spoke about the regional banks. We're watching that. Spoken areas to avoid. Gary gave you a big list. Areas to focus on. You know, leaders, strength, weakness. Spoke about position sizing and risk management.

Really, really important topics. If you size a position too big and it becomes very difficult to hold it. In other words, an exercise I use, so a lot of people come to me with different questions, you know, this, that, and the other thing. And feel free if you want, you can reach out on fineleadingstocks.com or email info at findleadingstocks.com. And one of the things I do with folks, and this helped me out a lot, was understand what's happening in my mind under the surface.

So I'm buying a stock. Okay, great. But what's going on? What am I feeling? Understand that emotions, right? People usually buy things because they like them. not necessarily what the exact best thing is for them logically. We're humans, we're emotional creatures.

I know I shouldn't be eating a cookie. Guess what? I ate the cookie. Logically, it makes no sense, but I did it anyway. Somebody buys a house because they like it. Lots of times because they love it. Same thing happens with the stock market. People buy stocks, for the most part, they like.

I don't know anyone that has discretion over their trading. In other words, they're not following the system. they actually make their own decisions and they buy a stock they hate. I just don't know. I know lots of people love their stocks. You know, there's an old expression. You know, don't marry your stocks, date them. But going back to the emotions is I understand that I'm making an emotional decision.

There's, I justify it with logic. Oh, I want to be smart. I want to make sure I'm logical here. But one of the things was bearing, think of the weight of the shoulders. Like you're carrying the world the weight of the shoulders of stressed out, ah, whatever, right? Okay, great. When you have too big of a position in a stock, it causes you to make more emotional decisions and less rational ones. Even if the stock pulls back just a little bit, fear goes through the roof, and then what happens?

Panic and sell. It's just a normal pullback, but oh, my God, I got so much money in the line. And then you start looking at the dollars and not making – and then again, just scrambled eggs. the brain turns it to scrambled eggs. Happen to me so many times. Well, wait a minute. Think of a doctor. If they just sit there and look at how much money

they're making every minute while they're making the incision, you want them to be looking at their money or you want them to be focused on doing the right thing here. You do the right thing. But with this, the scoreboard is literally the right thing. You're literally looking at the money. You're making or losing at any given time. So that's important to keep in mind.

Now, the next thing to keep in mind, and this is important also, is how do you overcome that? If you take too small of a position, it's not going to move the needle for you. So to understand that if it's too big, it can cloud your judgment, you might sell it prematurely,

or not be able to hold through a normal pullback, because you see how much profit there is or you're scared about how much, you know, you give back the profit, is a simple remedy to this where you're stuck in your head. And if this doesn't apply to you, great. But if it does, you know exactly what I'm talking about,

is just go to one share. sometimes people can't pull the trigger because they're scared they're going to about what's going to happen a solution simple just buy one share and see if you can do the right thing with one share it's not going to kill you as long as you have stops and you're protected you can manage the risk and all that fun stuff just try it if you were stumbling or having a difficult time pulling the trigger there could be trauma there i'm not a psychiatrist or a psychologist i just happen to love the human mind and I love to learn about humans and behavior and what makes people tick and all this stuff and I've observed myself and studied myself and others, countless others over the decades.

I've been doing this now since the 90s and I've survived bull markets, bear markets, so on and so forth. It's human nature repeats itself. Walk into a crowded theater, what happens? You yell fire. People are going to run. It doesn't matter where you are, what language you are, how rich you are, how, you know, socioeconomic level, your education, your race, your religion, you create, any of that stuff, out the window, humans are emotional creatures with a logical side of the brain. There's an emotional side, there's a logical side. It's just how we're programmed. So a lot of people are very logical, including myself.

Oh, one plus one has to equal two. Well, sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn't. You buy a breakout. It could work in double and triple and quadruple. Look, gold broke out beautifully. Look at GLD back in September. Beautiful breakout.

It worked perfectly. I can give you dozens of breakouts that did not work as pretty as gold. GLD. But when they do work, wow, right? So to help, if you haven't difficulty pulling the trigger, how many times have you said to yourself, oh, I saw that, but I didn't buy it. Well, why not? Either there was a fear element, you were afraid or some kind of enter trauma, enter any other, any negative emotion, some reason emotionally why you didn't buy it, especially when you quote unquote, no, the logical side, I should have bought it. Or, B, you were distracted and you missed it.

You didn't have structure in place to protect yourself from the distractions. You were in a meeting, you were on the golf course, you were walking, playing tennis, whatever it was. And it happens to all of us. So the way I do that is protect myself by planning in advance. I want to know my ideas, my setups in the morning the night before, over the weekend, what stocks are on my radar, what looks good, what areas am I focused on, what areas are leading, avoid the lacking areas, so on and so forth. Because all of that matters.

You know, Google tried to break out today. 25670 was an old high from September. It got as high as 257-58, but sold off because the market sold off. Well, Google tried breaking out. It wasn't quite ready. It happens. It's a mushy. one plus one does not always equal to in the market or in life.

I wish it always did. Some areas of life it does. But lots of other areas, especially performance-based areas, like our business, investing. Professional athletes, they can sit there and throw a basketball, throw a free throw a million times. A zillion times. Tiger Woods can hit that golf ball and have a complete different outcome. Same guy hitting the same ball. It doesn't go where he wants it to go and to any reason you want of why that.

It's just our business. It's how life works. And the ones that are able to be disciplined, apply the logic, understand the emotions that impact the logical side of it are the ones that thrive. And my book, I wrote a book called Psychological Analysis, it's my contribution to Wall Street, is all designed to show people how to do that. Make rational, not emotional decisions. I talk about cognitive biases. I talk about mental walls. You ever do something hit a wall?

We all have. I call them mental walls, so on and so forth. And the idea is that fundamental and technical analysis are not enough to beat the market, in my humble opinion, if they were, everybody would own a few islands in the Caribbean. Something's missing. Enter that psychological analysis. It's my third piece of the triangle, if you will. Third piece of the puzzle.

Know yourself. Know your psyche. What's your relationship with money? Is it a good one? or can it be improved? What are my emotional triggers? What are things that happen? I own the stock.

It has a big position, a big profit on me. Great. How do I handle that? Am I sitting there losing sleep at night? Because of the market? Or do you have losses piling up? Or I lost three trades in a row, but the fourth one could clean or nine trades in a row. I lose one nine times.

The 10th trade, I make 10. Net net I'm up one. So I lost one nine times, right? So on minus nine, the 10th trade, I made 10. So it cleans up all those losses because those losses were small. The 10th one was a nice big win and then some. And on net net, I'm profitable $1 in that scenario. The other person's trading has nine wins, but quickly gets out.

Makes a dollar nine times. The 10th trade loses 10. Net net, they're down one. But they were right 90% of the time. It doesn't matter. What matters? The bottom line. Net net, what happens?

after the 10 trades or whatever, the 100 trades, whatever it is. Six-month period, three-month period, quarter, year, doesn't matter. Net, net, are you up, hopefully, or down? And if you're down, why? Study it. What are my, if you sit down with me and say, okay, what do I do? What's your training like? Tell me, oh, I just wing it.

I trade my phone as I'm driving to work and sitting in traffic. Okay, do you do any research? No, I just bought because it's in the news or whatever, right? It's up a lot, so I just bought it. there's no structure, there's no rules and regs, there's no procedures, there's no, it's just a whim, right? All right, you could do that, do whatever you want. It's the beauty of this business. But the ones that are very successful have structure.

And they know how to, they have an edge, right? The investor's edge. So, again, putting all this together. Hope this is helpful for you. These are some actionable things, takeaways. I think, oh, okay, maybe you should do one share. instead of 10 or 20. And then as you build up, you get more comfortable, you can increase it. All right. Up next, we've got some more to cover. A lot more, actually. I'm Adam Sarang. I want to

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You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culpa. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge.

I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kay, who's out today. If you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com. Rewind, fast forward, listen over and over again because I know I speak fast. I want to make sure I get everything in there that I can get in the short amount of time that I'm here. Spoke about the heightened volatility after a big move up. Spoke about Oracle. Spoke about the regional banks. Spoke about areas to avoid.

Spoke about how to handle position sizing and how to handle the emotional side of trading, how to create some structure, you know, planning things in advance. How to handle big events. I plan for them. Earnings are coming out in the stock or the government shutdown or the Fed meeting or the jobs report or the inflation report, whatever the case is. Plan for it. Now, your plan's not going to always happen. One plus one does not always equal to in the market.

That's okay as long as we protect risk and we respect risk. I have a investment system that I, little things I put together. It's called AMP, AMPD. A stands for advanced entry points. M is market conditions. Align yourself with the market. You know, if we're in a bull market right now, understand that surprises in bull markets happen at the upside, not the downside.

Understand that pullbacks in bull markets happen. Understand corrections in bull markets happen. They're normal. They're healthy. Nobody likes them, but they happen. Right? So be aligned with the market. Most of the stocks follow the market anyway.

That's the M. P is psychological analysis. Know yourself. Am I on tilt? Am I off? Am I emotionally charged up? Am I going through a major life event where it's distorting my ability to make intelligent decisions? Am I strapped financially where I don't have the money to think clearly and risk it in the market?

Or is money flowing in so well that I'm just being careless, which I've been on both sides of that coin before. And it's just like, oh, okay, a little bit loosey-goosey and I should not have done that. What's a big deal? and then boom, get blindsided, you know, not blindsided, but whacked over the head like band, bam, bam from the Flintstones. And then, all right, get back up again. Elton John's song, I'm still standing. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

You know, I'm still standing. Yeah, yeah, yeah, and beating the chest like Tarzan. You know, been through all that. That's how you survived since the 90s, trading the market and dealing with the dot-com boom and the bubble and the bust and then 08 and then rallying afterwards and then 18, sell off and COVID and whatever else is happening. all right tariffs this year you know so on and so forth but it teach you learn you learn I know I don't know so I've got one job in life it's to learn so I know I spoke about that we spoke about lots of

other things as well if you're taking too big of risk if your position sizing is too big it's very difficult to make rational decisions in fact most people end up making emotional decisions when their position size is too big it's just the way it works So a solution there, again, cut down the one share, and then you can slowly increase. Once you realize one share is no big deal, and you could put stops in, you could protect yourself, or however you play the game, so to speak, whatever you do from the execution side of it, by all means, go for it. And then get comfortable with one, go to five.

Get comfortable with five, go to ten. Of course, depending on your portfolios and everything, your situation is completely different. I'm just speaking in general terms. I don't know you, so I can give you, you know, this is all general. but this works for just about everybody. Things are off. Take a break. I've done that many times.

I've missed moves because I was not in a good headspace or I had some external event or or or or. And that's okay. It's just like an elevator in a building. There's always another elevator coming. If I miss an elevator, I'm not going to hop and pop and get angry. Just wait. Turn around.

There's another elevator behind me. The next one. Be patient. Same thing with stocks. I know I'm going to miss stocks. leading stocks, that huge move, whatever that move is de jour, it happens. That's okay. There's always another move coming.

There's always another monster stock coming. There's always another opportunity. And that's the beauty of what we do, folks. Getting the mindset right is super important. Being that eternal optimist, right? Having that optimistic viewpoint, it's a decision. Success is a decision. Happiness is a decision.

the best is yet to come. If you would have told me when I started trading in the 90s that the Dow would be where it is today, I'd be like, yeah, there's no way that's possible. Dow's almost 50,000? Crazy Adam? I would have said to myself. But yeah, Dow's almost at 50,000, 45, you know, wherever it is.

So be it. No big deal. That happens. It's growth. Understanding that now, I wish I did back then. I didn't, but now I understand it. It's normal. If you go back and look even further,

you know, go back 100 years. Markets up huge. See, in 1990, the Dow hit a low of 2,300. You're now at 45,000. Wow. In the late 90s, when I was around, so the big bubble had the huge move. It was at 4,000 or 5,000 somewhere in that range.

This is the Dow. Not the NASDAQ, not the S&P, the Dow, right? So the S&P to get. give you some historical context back then in, let's say 1990, we'll go back to that same date, was 294. Today, the S&P 500 is 6,600 and change. I mean just a huge, huge move. Right? The NASDAQ composite back then was 322. The NASDAQ now is 22,000-540-ish and change. So, I mean, you're talking, but of course, there were violent swings up and down, big bear markets. You can't just blindly buy them.

These indexes are made up of stocks. Many of those stocks aren't around anymore. I remember back then in the early 90s, there was a savings and loans crisis. It's not the regional bank now. It's the two that Zion and WAL, Western Bank Alliance, they're having trouble today. But there was a whole regional bank crisis in the early 90s. and we survived, we got through it. We got through every single negative thing that came.

So again, having an optimistic outlook is something that I've noticed a lot of successful people have. The best is yet to come. Doesn't mean that I'm blind. Doesn't mean that I ignore negative news. Doesn't mean any of that stuff. All it means is, okay, got to be aligned in harmony with the market. It's my way of saying harmony with the market.

A little play on the word harmony. I want to be in harmony. with the market. I used to fight the market for a long time. I'm bearish, the market's bullish. Ah, and just make emotional, and it's just in it, it was stuck in my head. So putting the pieces together, again, we're in a bull market, heightened volatility, short term, we could be in for some selling.

So we'll continue to monitor the situation and see how it unfolds. All right, the Dow closed down about 300 points. 45,952. The S&P 500 closed down about 42 points to 6629. The NASDAQ was down 107 to 22,562. So again, take your time. We'll see how the weather, wind blows us. Thank you very much for being here. This is the one and only Investor's Edge. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Gary K.com. That's It's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

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Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your first?

wallet. Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.