Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Retail Time

Episode Date: August 16, 2022

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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eBay, things people love. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum, straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's August 16, 2020. And I'm going to stop right there for a second. As you know, we talk markets, and especially when they hit extremes, and especially when we go into the bare markets.

Because as we always told you, when we go into bare markets, you're going to get absolutely no help from Wall Street. And we had major meltdown starting in February of 21. all the bubbles, the short squeeze stocks, the SPACs, the no sales companies, whether they were biotech or whatever, the 3D, the marijuana stocks, the list goes on and on of utter destruction. And when we use the term utter destruction, we mean it. On top of that, the coins, the coin-related companies. We had some stable coins where people lost all their money overnight. We read articles of people that got involved.

You know, the Reddit crowd. And by the way, none of this is an indictment of Reddit or the Reddit crowd. Free speech. Free to act in a way you want to act. As long as you're not doing something illegal. or trying to screw people. And of course, then we had a bare market. Pretty vicious for a lot of areas.

And then on June 17th, A-Lo, July 19th, really, that was the confirmation. And less than a month, we've had a pretty darn good rally off of that confirmation day. And even today, we'll go through the good and the not-so-good. you had the retail area that has been absolutely bludgeoned, absolutely dead money, absolutely croaked. That may have woken up. And that's on top of what we've seen recently. The transports were dead, woke up. But that's not what I want to talk about from the get-go.

Amazingly, I must. I have to. It's incumbent upon me to tell you what's already happening and just wanting you to be careful with your money. As we always say, we're not going to tell you what to do. We're going to tell you what we think and what's happening and give you the lay of the land. And I have to state for the record, I'm stunned. that just a few weeks off of a bare market low, arguably a bare market low, we're already seeing stunning amount of froth and speculation.

And this is not a complaint. We're not complaining about it. We're giving you a heads up about it just in case. What do I mean by just in case? bed bath and beyond hit $28.60 today, closed at $20.65. That's what we mean. Oh, it was up 29% today still. At what point, it was up 80 some odd percent. Bedbath and beyond, a company that lost $2.83 last quarter, 25% drop. And do you remember, remember in sales, do you remember how when the bubbles were popping we would say to you? And we didn't say it sarcastically.

We came out and said to you, Coinbase is worth 50 bucks based on what we saw when it was 350. When Rivian hit 160, we told you we thought it was worth 20. And that was just based on value, real valuation. I don't think Bed Bath and Beyond is worth five bucks. Does that not mean it's not going to 100? No, because they're squeezing these things. Bed Bath and Beyond was $4.54 about nine days ago. Hit 2860 today.

What is that? About six and a half fold? On, I wish I can use the word, I'll use the other word, the crappiest. obviously you know what other word I'd rather use of news, a horrifying earnings report because it's a short, squeezed name. And we're stunned that this is happening, which gives us pause in that it's happening so quick. Because you know, we've told you about froth and speculation. It's indicative of trouble ahead. remember that

but of course we'll only worry about trouble when we really see trouble just recently you remember the latest one the worst one we've ever seen in history symbol hkd a $7.5

IPO opens at 15 goes to $255 in days giving it a market cap of almost $500 billion with $24 million in revenues. And we told you it's worth seven. It's back to 181, and we're amazed it's still there,

but it's gone from $2,550 down to 181. And we were warning you when it was making the move. In fact, the day it closed at, it hit 2550, it closed at 1679. We're yelling and screaming at you. If you know what we mean by yelling and screaming. And then MEGL, but another Hong Kong name goes from 4 up to 250 in a day. It's back to 14. 250 back to 14.

They have no sales or very scraps. And by the way, that HKD, the market cap is still $34 billion with 24 million in revenue. news. You can't short it. You can't borrow stock. And I can't tell you if they don't try to rally it up again. We're stunned. There were other names today also, but we're not even going to mention them. Companies that literally have nothing getting squeezed up, not even a month off of a confirming what we call July 19th. Number one. Oh, not to mention the no-sales biotex that we told you were moving three weeks ago into new yearly high ground. So number one, we're not telling you this is a sign of impending doom or impending trouble.

We're just letting you know quite often it is. Number two, and this is more important to your wallet right now. Just be careful. We don't know where these stocks are going. We don't. we just know when the, you know, musical chairs. Musical chairs. What happens when there's no chairs?

And somebody who got excited on Bed Bath and Beyond today at 2860 and decided to hold, it's 2065. On a company that pretty much should be five bucks, at best, maybe even less, just. just on how much, I mean just business is not good. No indictment in the company, we're telling you facts. They move GameStop a little bit today and others. I felt it necessary to start with this because let me repeat something again. I'm stunned. The ends of bare markets, let me explain how they usually end.

that's up next. And then today, lots to cover. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication.

We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting for, fresh or pursuing a lifelong passion.

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With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to investors. edge usually the end of bare markets usually wipes out all vestiges notice the big word i use them every now and then vestiges i don't know even know exactly what it means but i'm pretty sure i'm using it correctly i think it means like traces of if i'm not incorrect small amounts, I think that's about right, wipes out. The last vestiges of froth and speculation for a long time. Why? Because everyone is scared crappless to even enter the markets.

Froth, what's that? Speculation, are you kidding? So we're just letting you know primary, primary price volume leadership scanning 1500 to 2,000 names a night, 200 sectors, every country, every commodity to get a good feel for the markets. And as we have said to you, once we broke above the 50 day, little by little piece by piece instead of things breaking down, things were bottoming at the lows. Not everything but a lot. That's what we'll worry about. about first. But secondarily, holy crap, holy crap, they're at it again. And just so you know what I do, I have four screens in front of me. I have three screens of stocks with screens behind them. So in other words, in front of me is a screen of stocks, and I have other pages I can go.

go to. My fourth screen is the charts, and then I have this good feel for the crowd. It's my own little proprietary feel for the crowd, and whether they're going nuts again, a la the top in the meme stocks last year. You know what I'm talking about when everybody. It was the big talk. Couldn't get away from it on a daily basis. It is so noisy out there now again. A few weeks off a confirming low. People jumping all over each other. Yell and screaming, jumping for joy on bedbath and beyond. Don't worry that they can go and bankrupt. The stock's gone to 100 first. and you know what I noticed from the crowd when it hit 28 today

they're going wild at 26 the noise slows down a little bit oh don't worry it'll close at 40 they're actually thinking a $26 stock's going to be 40 the same day a company that's in dire straits and then at 24

a little more quiet 22 then 20 oh well that is what I'm seeing out there. And then the other part of the equation, and you want to listen to this, you know, I have this radio show.

I just got off of Neil Cavuto's Your World. About 1.8 million people just watch me for about five minutes. That's a lot of people. Which means there's a follow. which means I get a lot of emails. I'm getting a bunch of emails today on Bedbath and Beyond. What do you think? And you know how email it back?

Well, it was four bucks two weeks ago and the company lost $2.83 a share on a 25% drop in sales. And they're in dire straits. Then I'd get an email back. You know what the next email is? But what do you think of the stock? 4 to 28, close at 20, and those are the emails I'm getting. I'm giving you real-world stuff, ladies and gentlemen.

Now, I don't know if this is an outcome of people losing a lot of money and trying to make it back quickly. Don't know. Don't care. The only thing I do know, the insanity that cause people to... lose crap loads of money in the last since February of 21 is already back. It's already back.

And I can safely tell you, I don't know where it stops. I don't know where it ends. The only thing I want to convey to you, just please know where things came from, know what you're dealing with and always have some good stops in place, because when all is said and done, this is what I've repeated a thousand times during bubbles, eventually everything goes back to where it came from. That's how it works.

And in case you don't know, bed bath and beyond during the squeeze, went from three bucks up to 54, and it just bottomed at $4.38. Round trip. Now, what's driving it again? Again, I believe 30% of the stock is shorted, and I guess with a better market, they're able to get it going again. What's the other line I always use?

Just don't be the last one in. That's all. Just don't be the last one in. And just to make sure you do not put words in my mouth. I am not telling you to buy, sell, short, or cover. I'm not telling you what to do. I'm outlining for you what's happened recently, what's happened in the last since February of 21,

and what the numbers on these companies are, and the normality of what happens when the music stops. And I repeat, I'm stunned. I'm stunned. We'll keep you abreast of it. Good luck with it. Just know what you're getting into.

Up next. Today's market wrap. I'm Gary. This is the one-only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat.

And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio.

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Today, we're exploring deep in the North American wilderness among nature's wildest, plants, animals, and cows?

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The crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Coltbaum It comes highly recommended You're going to feel better if you talk to him Did I make myself clear And by the way If a stock like HKD

That's a symbol A 7 and 3 quarter IPO out of Hong Kong with a 24 million market cap and opens at 15 and goes to 2,555 in days. Does not signify something's wrong? I don't know what does. And we warned you, it's going back to where it came from. It's back to 181.

It ain't worth 181. It ain't worth 81. It ain't worth 21. We don't know how it gets there, but eventually it will. We're stunned. President Biden, they passed and signed the Inflation Reduction Act. Let me repeat to what we've been saying. It has absolutely nothing to do with inflation.

Another scam and another con from another con artist in Washington, D.C. Joe Biden is not alone. There are a bazillion of them there. 30 some odd trillion denotes con artistry of we're talking debt. Joe Biden has voted on over 30 trillion of that debt, yet he has the nerve and grapefruits to tell us, oh, we got this spending bill and it's going to lower the debt and deficits. That comes under the heading, don't piss down our backs and tell us it's raining. He knows they're lying.

He knows we know they're lying. But they don't care that they're lying because the bill is passed, and that's all they care about. And that's more domination and control over our lives with bigger government and more taxes over our head. They have the nerve to tell us it's not going to hurt anybody under 400,000, but we absolutely know it's going to. There is not enough. Let me stop right there. They're telling us they're going to get a bunch of money because the IRS is going to go out and go out. and go after the 1%

intimating and not intimating actually stating that people who make a certain amount of money or a bunch of freaking tax cheats and we're coming to get you think about that they're actually stating

into the camera for the record that if you make over this amount of money we're coming after you because that's where all the tax cheating is So when I went on with Neil Cavuto early, I said, are they trying to tell us if you make over $400,000 you're a tax cheat? But if you make $399, you're not. These people are insane.

So what they did, they came up with a bill, inflation reduction act. There's nothing that has anything to do in inflation. It's just tax and spend. And what do they do? They sit down with their political people and their marketing people. Okay, what do we do? our poll numbers suck because of inflation we see it so what what should we do oh just say it's going to lower inflation so they made it up out of thin air and they just brought it to you again another

con a big gigantic con i mean what have we said here they called trump a liar for four years they got nothing on trump these people wrote the book and uh the interesting thing They're not going to raise the money they say they're going to raise because, A, what do you think? Everybody cheats on their taxes? Hell no. People are pretty much honest. I don't know if you know that. That's number one.

And the billionaires. You know what the billionaires have they say they're going to go after? They have very, very highly paid tax attorneys and accountants. You know what they know? Every tax law and every loophole and they cover it from soup to nuts. It's not going to get any money out of the billionaires. And, you know, then really go after the billionaires in a big way. You know why?

Those are the ones that give the money. So where are they going to get the money from? Hey, you out there that breathes? Oh, that's right. Since you breathe, that's what's going to happen. That's all. And Neil jokingly said to me, oh, Gary, you're one of the whatever and they're coming after you. I overpay.

I make sure I overpay. Let him come after me. get a refund. Seriously, I'm one of those stupid people, but you get my point. So, another joke. They tell us you're going to save money and inflation, but you know what you got to do? You got to buy a solar panel and they'll give you a tax credit. You got to buy electric vehicle. They'll give you a tax credit. Oh, by the way, today, Ford raised the price on their electric vehicle, the lightning by 6,000 to 8,500. You know what the tax credit they extended?

Oh, 7,500. You're feeling me? You're catching my drift? It's sickening. It's so nauseating to watch this. And for the life of me, I don't know why sane people actually... I guess it's the politics of it. I don't know why anybody likes Trump, so.

I don't know why anybody likes Trump, so. I don't know why anybody likes this deal. I don't know why anybody listens to Alex Jones. Welcome to the world. How anybody can back this BS is beyond me. Climate? They're going to fix the climate with this? No, they're not. It's just more government, more control over your lives. And you know what the shame of this whole thing is? They're turning the IRS into bad guys. They're not bad people. The IRS isn't bad people. You know what they are? They're people that wake up every day and go to do their job in the best way they know how. And that's it. That's what they do. You think the IRS, these normal people wake up every morning, who am I going to go after today? No. Now, if they find

somebody that's cheating like all hell, that's their job. If they find something, that's their job. but now the IRS has a bad name. All this talk from the Ritees about all these IRS people are going to go after people, sick on people. So now Biden has turned the IRS into bad. And yeah, in any industry there's bad people. Remember Lois Lerner?

What an ass clown. And she was left off the, she let off the hook. That was under Mr. Wonderful Obama. So the con continues. on each and every one of you. By all parties. Both parties. One worse than the other.

Inflation Reduction Act. Good Chance retail stocks bottom today. On Home Depot and Walmart, Walmart beat the number after lowering the number twice. I love how that works. Home Depot number wasn't as bad as thought. and as I scanned earlier today, all the retail stocks, even the worst money-losing retail companies, look like they may have turned the corner. Not sure yet, I'll be looking at it after the close.

But when you have a chance tonight and you're scanning, I'll just give you a couple of names to see. I'm going to give you the worst names, American Eagle Outfitters. Stock's been destroyed. but has gone flat line for the last 10, 12 weeks, moved above that flat line today. That's what we mean by maybe turning the corner. AEO is the symbol. Abercrombian Fitch, ANF. Same thing.

Worst of. And I saw it in a lot of names today. Does it stick? Don't know. But it does add to the good action we're seeing in the markets. simply adds to the good action we're seeing in the markets on all the bombed-out areas that have basically turned up for now. And we still have no big institutional selling to report to you as a whole,

though they came after a few things today and we'll discuss that in the next few minutes. Up next, the numbers. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stouting. chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.

And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication.

And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating. FACTS FACTS about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our proclamation. programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu. So what do this animal...

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The Market Wrap is brought to by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators go check it out. Investment-mottles.com. Dow up 239.

What's up 370? In the Dow today, 18, 19, 21, about Home Depot and Walmart were about 160 of the Dow. And just really nothing was down. And everything, he had a couple things up a buck here, a buck there, but it was Walmart and Home Depot. I will tell you, Walmart, their earnings were down one. percent, but their revenues were up 8 percent, which was better than expected. That's Walmart.

Home Depot, they were okay numbers. Nothing special, but beat the estimates. And that's what, as we said earlier, retail stocks had a good day today. S&P up eight, NASDAQ down 25, NASDAQ 100 down 31. And let me say for the record, when the Dow was not that strong, today, the NASDAQ was down like 150. And when they sank the Dow into like the 3 o'clock hour and it was only up like 140, the NASDAQ was down about 70 or 80.

So the NASDAQ did not have traction today, but I would suggest it's overdue. I would suggest a lot of things are overdue to pull back, settle in, relax, take it easy. We've had a pretty decent move off the lows. And we keep getting asked, well, what's happening here? Depression, recession, inflation, deflation, well, you know, oil prices were down another two and a half today. And I must tell you, if go look at the USO, it's the easiest thing to watch. If 69.5. gets taken out, which just happens to be a little bit below the all important longer term 200-day moving average. That's potential for a major top in oil prices.

That's good news for you, the consumer. It's the Putin price cut. You don't hear that from the administration, do you? The Putin price cut? It was only the Putin price hike. Weakness today, oils, solars, and solars just need to pull back. Everything, software, growth, those higher beta names that have just

have come off the lows but a lot of them are not going to make them make it just so you've got to be very smart about it semis were weak today Tesla was up today 18 bucks finished down 9 so maybe that hit a little bit of a wall some of the biggies were down

Amazon was up but that's a little bit of the retail component. It was just a good retail day. A decent day in commodities. Retail was a story. Transport. Some of them were up today decently. Some of the economically sensitive. Some of the travel were up decently today. The consumer-oriented, better day. And again, lower oil prices. and financials had another drift higher. I got to mention it's not a big group. Auto Nation, A.N. Maybe trying to break out of a one-year range on a 2% drop in sales.

Penske Auto Group, another one on a 1% drop in sales looks to be breaking out. Group 1 auto, not there yet, but coming up the right side. the auto dealers, the auto parts retailers on the strong side. Costco was up, let's see, was up 14, finished up seven, no biggie, but most retail good. And that's the story. Really no distribution in the markets to speak of just yet, in spite of a lot of. talk that continues to be, oh, it's just a bare market rally. The pollution control, you know, the waste management, Republic Services Group, little bit into

new high ground, waste management, little bit into new high ground, waste connections, a little bit in almost new high ground. Three names in that group. Another small group. But we couldn't do that for a long time, could we? We can not even mention it because there weren't any. So, decent day. If we had a complaint, advanced declines, only 2218 on the New York, 1924 and change on the NASDAQ, so broader market not as great today.

I'll call it a no biggie, though. Gold still not happening. I got a lot of questions on marijuana stocks today and I was thinking, okay, did they start moving? Yeah, they were moving yesterday. So we got questions on marijuana stocks today. Chinese ADRs were down today. China's weak versus everything else.

But if we continue, we figure that's got to play some catch up. If we continue. And that's the story of the day. We have not been able to come on this show and say massive distribution day. in a bit, in a bit. And we've had ample opportunity. We've had some down days that got bought up. We think, best guess, oil prices keep dropping and may break down here.

Bears think that's signifying bad recession. If it's a bad recession, why is ADP at highs? Why is retail starting to move? You get the point? if markets are smart you get the point tomorrow be another day that all said have a great evening

I think it's just Tuesday right drive carefully when you get home do like we do it's quite simple make sure you hug your family you hug your children they will feel better you will feel better we promise lots of scanning to do tonight

It's one of those days. Peace out all. We'll be on with Charles Payne at 2 p.m. Fox Business tomorrow, and until the same time tomorrow with this show, take care. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

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