Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Revenge of the nerds [01.13.2025]

Episode Date: January 13, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Monday.

It's the 13th of January, 2025. Hope you had a good weekend. for those in L.A. affected by the fires, we continue to think of you. We're wishing you all the best. I had spoken to a couple of friends who live out there, not in the areas affected,

but very close within 10 miles. They cannot believe the devastation. That's out there. one of them said to they know the area even more than I do and I've never lived there but as I told you I've been there many times it is just miles

of just other destruction and it's still going on to a certain extent they have some fires contained but we are hearing in the next couple of days there is close to Hurricane force winds forecast in the next couple of days. 70 to 90 mile an hour wins, and who knows what's going to come of it.

It's up to 24 dead, 23 missing. And I was watching some interviews with a family that lost the sister, and they all lived on the same block, and all four homes were destroyed. and, you know, I always try to, man, what if I was in those shoes? I, you know, I can't imagine what some of these people are going through. And we are hearing that the many do not have insurance. Insurance companies have dropped home insurance in the last year. For that reason, too many fires.

And it really does leave you speechless. Unfortunately, what else leaves you speechless is the leadership there is a bunch of amateur, for lack of a better word, boobs. And maybe they'll learn from this and do better going forward. Let's take the positive, right? I doubt it. The media, as usual, sucks covering it. in that the goal of media

should be to hold the powerful to account they are acting as the governor and the mayor's lawyers and I'm serious when I say that and it's a shame we'll keep you up the date on it it's just a big wow ladies and gentlemen

we are hearing the best way to give if you want to help is the Red Cross we are also hearing that sleaze bags like Elizabeth Warren and Gavin Newsom has been telling you to donate to a certain email address and it's going to campaigns no, not making that up

so they're using death, destruction, and devastation. You can go look that up on the, you know, we don't make these things up. It's it's there. Okay, let's move on. Hope you had a good weekend. This week of importance is going to be financials week in that Black Rock, Bank of New York, City Group, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Cinovis Bank of America, M&T Bank, Morgan Stanley, PNC Bank, and U.S. Bank Corps, Regions Financial, Huntington Bank, Bank, Share, State Street Bank, Trueest, Webster Financial, small one. How about the Bank of the Ozarks? They all report this week.

They have been under pressure the banks. They had a better day today. We'll discuss that in a little bit. And I do have a bunch to say about today's action. I'll start with the masking, but try to give the positive spin. And as you know, we have no bias to what's working or what's not working. We have no bias to what's in a bull market, what's in a

bare market. We just look to find the leaders, avoid the lagging. We do it through names, sectors, countries, indices. Simple as that. So first let me start out by saying, you are going to turn on the news and they're going to tell you that Dow is up 358 points today. But they're not going to tell you it took about 330 Dow points just to get the S&P 500 positive today. They're not going to tell you that advanced declines with the Dow up 358 were down on the day. They're not going to tell you on the New York. There's 16 new highs and there's really none. and 289 new yearly lows.

They're just going to tell you that the Dow, hey, look, had a good day. And that's all well and good. I'm fine with that, except we have to look underneath the surface of that. By the way, on the New York, let's see, new highs. You ready? CF Industries, I believe that is a fertilizer company.

That's a new high. Chenier Energy. LNG. That's a new high. And we've been telling you the pipelines have been strong. How about Waters Corp? Medical numbers not that great. But that's a new high. I think that's my new high list for the New York. Yeah, I can't find another one really. And I'm looking. And I'm looking. I have something called intraccellular tech, but that's a buyout. A biotech got bought out. This one has sales.

About 600 million in sales was bought out for $13 billion. God bless them. So that's the not so good. You want to see with the Dow up 358, 3 to 1 positive. You want to see the S&P not finish up 9. By the way, the S&P was up the equivalent of about 60 Dow points. But we're not going to shrug it off. We deal with what we're seeing. Here's what we like today.

It was definitively what we call Revenge of the Nerds. For a very long while, we've been saying to you, avoid home builders, housing, steel, copper, aluminum, coal, rails and truckers. machinery, farm machinery like caterpillar deer. Restaurants, most of them, not all. Economically sensitive names, consumer staples, insurance, managed care. Big biotech.

Materials. And that would be the XLB. Chemicals. And the like. Oils, though we took them off a void a couple of weeks ago and we said to you, let's see what comes of it, though it's not thrilling when oil prices go higher. Let me state for the record, you had a very good day today. Oh, by the way, a bunch of financials also. You had a very good day to day in that revenge of the nerds.

Defense stocks had a strong day. Keep in mind off of a big drop. Example, Lockheed Martin was up $15 today, 3% to 483. It was $619 in October. Catching the drift. Elevents, one of the managed care stocks with United Health, was up 15 today to 396. It was 567 in September. And in the Dow today, well, you had some lift.

United Health was up $21 today to $541 and really coming on. It was just $475 three weeks ago after dropping from $622. That would be the equivalent of, let's see, 21 times six. It was about, and you add up the six and a half, it's about 130-something Dow points on United Health today, being the most important name in the Dow because it is price weighted and is the highest price. I also want to add Caterpillar because Caterpillar stock just went from 412 down to 350 before you can say, boo, got upgraded. I'll explain that up next on Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors' Ed.

We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

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with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvin Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example. If anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive

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is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com slash smart talks. Want to earn extra income for your business? Amazon Hub delivery is looking for ambitious business owners to assist with local deliveries. When you become a partner,

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Sign up to learn more at Amazon.com slash hub delivery. That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery. Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stockup savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, Oiraida, Silk, Capri-San, Bavarian Meats, and Charmin.

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. So Caterpillar was up a juicy $11.5.

Today after dropping about 60 some odd bucks since late November. On an upgrade, somebody came out and upgraded it, said this, that, and the other thing. That accounts for about 70, I'm just going to give a roundabout number, 72 Dow points. What was strong today? Metals and mining. materials, industrials, housing to a lesser extent.

Not all, but rails and truckers had a bid today. Oils with higher oil prices. Defense stocks that have been absolutely mashed. The managed care, as I mentioned them, insurance bounced, the consumer staple bounced, the economically sensitive stocks bounce. You know how I bring up United Rentals.

It was up 18 bucks today to $6.88. But it was $881 $7,8 weeks ago. So a very good day, but in the context of the last seven or eight weeks, a bounce. That said, I'm going to make a possible. statement, a potential statement, potential of that these worst areas put in a decent low for now. I did not say the low, I said a low, and when I say a decent low, I think they can go higher. Why? Because they dropped a long way. When I mentioned to you that Lockheed Martin dropped from 619 and was up 15 to 483 today,

there's nothing to keep Lockheed Martin from rallying up to $520 and still be down $100. You hear my dog in the background, by the way? He comes to the office. You have coal stocks. How about alpha metallurgic? AMR was up 18 today, 10% to 194. It was 452 last February. It was 255 six weeks ago.

That's what we mean by bounce. That said, we have to deal with the here and now. I think there's potential that these Revenge of the nerds areas put in A-Lo today and could take these areas higher in the near term. I am not 100% on that. I don't think I'm 75%, but sometimes you get what we call sold out, just enough selling.

They're done. Sellers get washed out. Sellers get tired. We may have seen that today. Again, not 100%. but I'm open to it. Now, as far as oils, they've come along much more, but that's because of oil prices go in higher.

Today, the refiners had a pretty good day, like Valero. And to have context, it was up six bucks today to 133. In fact, it hit 117 three weeks ago. So 117 to 133. It's a good move. It was 185 in April. but we do think some of the downtrends in oil names have stopped. You know, when we talk about trading below the 50 day as the 50 day descends,

well, a bunch of these prices have gotten back above the 50 day, which gives them a chance. We'll see. That said again, I don't know if it's great news that oil prices. We're up another $1.33 today. We'll see. But I just want to state again today, very much revenge of the nerds day, and it carried other things. And what I mean by that is the NASDAQ was down 300 today.

Finished only down 73. Why? Because the Dow that started slow lifted them boats. The question is, what came of that? I don't know just yet. Except to say a lot of stocks have really gone by the wayside.

Breaking support and or moving averages, leaving the market a lot narrower and narrower which gives us opportunity and what do we mean by that? Well, we isolate the big strength. What doesn't go down while so many

things go down? And that's what in the midst of doing. And that's the story. Revenge of the nerds day-to-day and finished well. We like when the market finishes on a decent note. I also lastly want to mention just one name on the beta front this second, Tesla. Because early in the day it was down about 15. Yeah, 15.

finished up 11 and in fact Tesla in like the last I don't know few minutes just jumped $10 and has a constructive look to it and I mention that

because it's probably the highest beta big name to watch and if that's doing better well maybe things can get going again not sure, not clear.

But that's Tesla. And by the way, that's off of, they missed on their most important number. Deliveries. But the many are out there saying, oh, they're much more than cars. They're going to be robots and robotaxies and other things. And time will tell.

All I know is earnings up nine, revenues up eight. That's all they had. I think they'll have to do better when all is said and done. But that was important for the market at the end of the day. Transport's up 144. That bounces. You know, transports have been hit pretty damn hard also. But I'm going to call it, even though the internals not great,

I think it could be an important day for the rest of the nerds, but only one day. not such a good day for what we call growth beta stuff like that but they were better by the clothes but you know what i do want to do before the show is over ask you to thank me because we warned you about the froth and the speculation we warned you that we don't know when, but eventually they will all go back to where they came from. That's up next

on Investor's Edge. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Gambata. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do is answer

what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithm, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes.

Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. Right? My cell phone is a mature technology at this point.

How far are we from that point with Conton? By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Amazon Hub delivery wants to partner with your business. Help your business.

Help your neighbors. Discover a new stream of income for your business when you partner with Amazon Hub delivery. You and your team will deliver Amazon packages to customers in your neighborhood on a schedule that works for you, and you'll be paid for every package you deliver. Getting started is easy.

There's no delivery experience required, no long-term contracts, and you receive weekly direct deposits. earn more, gain exposure for your business. Apply today at Amazon.com slash hub delivery. That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery. Know a local business that would make a great partner, a local coffee shop owner, florist, automotive shop, dry cleaner, you name it. Refer a business today and earn $500 when they successfully join the program. Visit Amazon.com slash hub delivery to learn more or refer a partner. That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery.

Now looking for hub partners in your area. Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stock up savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for storewide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, Oiraida, Silk, Capri-Sung, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more.

Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Okay. So as we always tell you, we believe. the most important job we have is to make sure very much make sure very very very much make sure at the most inopportune time that you are not losing your butt so recently we saw a bunch of other areas we are a bunch of no sales companies

were exploding to the upside just on a theme even though they had no sales. And let me explain to you when we say no sales. If your young son or daughter went onto the corner and opened up a lemonade stand and sold one glass of lemonade, they would have more sales than these companies where some of them ended up with five billion dollar market caps which is you take shares times price and you get a market cap people would pay five billion dollars for a company with no sales because it's a theme it's a theme and we said to you,

these are the areas that are going insane. And we also said to you, we don't know how far they go to the upside. We don't know when they go back to the downside. We just know that eventually they will, if nothing changes. You don't know if some of these companies come out with something great and all of a sudden sales and earnings go insane to the upside. The first thing we warned you about was quantum computers. We warned you.

And the CEO of Nvidia came out and stated that, eh, ain't going to be a quantum computer for 15 years, maybe even 30. Well, that didn't help. So, for the record, here's one that's gone from $27 to $6.5. in 14 trading days. I didn't give you out the symbols going up. I'm not going to give them going down. Here's one that went from $11.41 to $3.83 in seven days.

And mind you, all the noise on these stocks were after they were already up big. How about the one that went to $90? It actually went from $3 to 90. and about seven days it's gone to 20. How about this one that has gone from 22 to 6 in four days? We're still in quantum. 11 to $2.85 in seven days. We'll finish off with the last one, 53 to 16 in about seven days.

but we're not done. How about the nuclear? This one didn't go as big, but it's gone from 33 to 20 in three days. I'm not going to mention names. It has no sales.

How about this one's gone from 32 to 22 in three days? No sales. Another one with no sales. How about 32 to 18 in three weeks. These are again nuclear.

Okay, we'll get past that. And then we have what am I picking out here? Okay, let's try this one. 14 to 7 on something called the Internet of Things. I'm not

making that up. How about drones? 24 to 11. And again, we repeat. No sales. No, really. How about 78 to 15? And by the way, we're not bypassing the fact that these things had gargantuan moves to the upside.

We were just warning you that eventually, and I don't know what happens tomorrow, I just know what eventually happens to no sales companies. Do I have to do others? I don't think so, do I? I think I've made my point. Let's do a battery name that's gone from five and a half to two in seven days. And by the way, these show up on my screen after big moves because they're coming from like a dollar, some of these things. So we'll repeat.

We have no idea what happens from here. Maybe they bounce them up. Maybe they rally them up. Who the hell knows? I don't know. What I do know is by precedent in the study of bull and bear markets, they eventually go back to where they came from. I know this because we've gone through thousands and thousands and thousands of names. So we hope you listened.

We do know there are some people that did do some buying of these things. And the good news is they did some selling after they heard from us and did not get carnaged. We'll leave it at that. We'll leave it at that. All in all, good finish to the day. Tesla, interesting. As I believe that's the high beta name. Better day for the big banks by the clothes, but they all report later in the week, and I have no clue how they react, but normally they react pretty decently. Normally. The 10-year yield hit 4.8 today, did not bother. the Dow and did not bother the NASDAQ from coming back pretty decently. The semis were down a lot early. The Sox was down 49, 29, 29, 76 was down 108 finished only down. I take it back.

Only down 17 from being down 108. That's good to see. Now let's get some freaking leadership. I want to be able to come on here and say this busted out of range on big. volume. That busted out a range. New high list picking up. That's what we want to see. Today, worst was first. But a good worst was first. What we mean by that is they covered some territory some of these areas. Tomorrow there will be another day. Seems like that O'Neill thought that January's I think he was on to something. So far, it's a crazy January. For the month, the Dow is only down six-tenths of one percent.

The S&P, seven, eight-tenths of one percent. The NASDAQ 1%, it's not so bad. NASDAQ 1001%. Considering there's been a serious amount of damage. and the Dow is still down about 2,800 points from its recent high of early December. No biggie. S&P down about 4% from its recent high. Another no biggie so far.

Underneath the surface, biggie. Lots of stocks. I heard the average S&P stock was down 18% from the highs. That was from my buddy Charles Payne. 18% from the highs. I'm writing that down. I forgot to write that down. Up next, I got an Apple Watch.

That's next and more. I'm Gary. This is the one-only investor's edge. Hello, I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of Smart Talks with IBM. I recently spoke with IBM's new director of research, Jake Embatta. We discussed his vision for the future of quantum computing. At IBM research, what we always do, is answer what is the future of computing, whether it's coming up with new algorithms, coming up with better AI, coming up with quantum, or coming up with just how do different accelerators

go together. It's our DNA to answer the question of what is the future. Isn't it a perfect problem for IBM because you kind of need to have a legacy of building stuff? Yes. Building actual physical machines. Yeah, it's why I came to IBM. I wanted the experience, the culture of building hard things that others have not done before. Where do you imagine we are in the timeline of this technology? There will come a point when it will mature. My cell phone is a mature technology at this point. How far are we from that point with Conton?

By 2029, we'll build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer. That is one that can run a very, very large, large problem. To learn how IBM is building the future of computing, visit IBM.com slash quantum. Amazon Hub Delivery wants to partner with your business. Help your business. Help your neighbors. Discover a new stream of income for your business when you partner with Amazon Hub delivery. You and your team will deliver Amazon packages to customers in your neighborhood on a schedule that works for you. And you'll be paid for every package you deliver.

Getting started is easy. There's no delivery experience required, no long-term content. contracts and you receive weekly direct deposits. Earn more. Gain exposure for your business. Apply today at Amazon.com slash hub delivery. That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery. Know a local business that would make a great partner, a local coffee shop owner, florist, automotive shop, dry cleaner, you name it. Refer a business today and earn $500 when they successfully join the program. Visit Amazon.com slash hub delivery to learn more or refer a partner. That's Amazon.com slash HUB delivery.

Now looking for hub partners in your area. Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stockup savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for store-wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, Body Armor, ORAIDA, Silk, Capri-Sung, Bavarian Meats, and Charmin. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more.

Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culper. So, uh, my son, Eric got an Apple Watch. and I thought it was the coolest thing and I've never even looked at an Apple Watch and he bought me one and I have it on now and dang does it do a lot of good stuff

man oh man I'm digging it just letting you know Apple's not paying me to say that does a lot of good things you know what I love about the health part your heart rate your heartbeat I don't know if blood pressure is on.

They haven't done the whole thing yet. You're sleeping. It does a whole thing on your sleeping. That is so cool. Workouts, everything. And my iPhone is on there. The whole thing got shifted on there. It was very easy to do.

Well done. I got the, it's the iPhone, the I watch 10. It's the new one that just came out. Just letting you know. Hey, in the news, I had no idea about this next thing. In the news, private firefighters are getting like $2,000 an hour in Los Angeles for people. Did any of you ever thought there were private firefighters? I always know this private security.

Private fire, I had no idea that was a business. It's booming in L.A. Just letting you know. Wow. Speaking of that in the news, and this is going to be quote-unquote homeowners are facing an insurance crisis, and it's going to get real interesting on how much is going to be the cost to the insurance companies and the payouts and whether they're going to do the right thing. you know a big industry is the insurance adjuster industry that works for you the homeowner boy oh boy and i was just adding up the numbers and i know they're talking about this amount of

billions and that amount of billions i don't think they know what the amount of billions this one's going to be i got a sneaking suspicion there is going to be some sort of or have to be some sort of big changes between insurance, states, and the homeowners. You know, we have a big thing going on in Florida with the condos and home insurance going up a lot. I do know all state raised home insurance in California, 34% year over year. And what was it? State farm, like a good neighbor, state farmers there.

They canceled a bunch of policies in the last year. I gather these insurance companies are going to hire a lot of marketing firms to get out front of this on how they're very good people. And I'm not putting them down anyway, shape, or form. But it's going to be game on as far as messaging and things like that. In the news, overpromising and underdelivering. I'm just letting you know if any of you are listening from the Trump camp stop the over-promising

just so you all know I just want to let you all know they're not deporting 10 million people there's not going to be a ton of deportations on day one I'm just letting you know they're going to be good on the border but they're over talking it.

It's not going to be easy on legislation when you have a sliver in the house. Remember, the house throws out the bills. Inflation. Prices ain't coming down so easy. Presidents do not get prices down

at the supermarket. They've got to back off of that. If they do what they say they're going to on the size scope reach of government, got the shot. But if he starts begging the Fed to lower rates when they shouldn't, like Trump did in his first term, that could be inflation.

Inflationary. Tariffs. He's not doing big 100% tariffs. I don't know why they're saying they're going to do these massive gargantuan tariffs. And you know why? It'll create shortages and higher prices. Now, little tariffs, even medium-sized tariffs, targeted tariffs, are not a bad thing, especially dealing with income poops like China.

But this whole tariff is a beautiful, most beautiful word in the dictionary. No, tariffs suck. You know what the goal is? To get everybody else off their tariffs on us. Negotiate well. 100% tariffs, ladies and gentlemen, you will see unemployment rise, inflation rise, the economy south.

So that's not happening. Just letting you know. Hope they are listening. Because one of the first thing I taught my sons we do not over promise and under deliver. And we think they're doing a little bit too much of that. Lastly, let me finish up. I said this about 10 days ago and I'm repeating it.

I think there's going to be a hostage deal real soon. I'm getting rumblings and I'm pretty good with the rumblings. The question is how many are alive. We'll see what happens. Hey, you have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family. make sure you hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Good day for the revenge of the nerds. Let's hope we can find some leadership soon. Peace out, all. Stay well. Good night.

This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Want to earn extra income for your business? Amazon Hub Delivery is looking for ambitious business owners to assist with local deliveries. When you become a partner, you and your staff will deliver packages to customers in your area on a schedule that works for you. With each package delivered, you'll gain extra income and exposure for your business. Plus, Amazon Hub Delivery makes it easy to get started.

There's no upfront costs, delivery experience, or long-term contracts required. Sign up to learn more at Amazon.com slash hub delivery. That's Amazon.com slash H-UB delivery. Hey, it's Ryan Sechrest for Albertsons and Safeway. It's stockup savings time now through March 31st. Spring in for storewide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in-store tags to earn on eligible items from Celsius, body armor, ORA-Ida, silk, Capri-San, Bavarian Meets, and Charmin.

Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event-long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you shop in-store or online for easy drive-up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions.