Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - revenge of the nerds [02.04.2026]

Episode Date: February 4, 2026

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Visit the prodesk or Lose.com slash terms for more details. Subject to change. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day. Thanks for being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening, as always. It's Wednesday, February 4th. It is 2024. And as always, we have lots to cover. but let me state for the record. Yesterday, we went coast to coast talking markets. And I must tell you, I got a lot of feedback thanking us for talking markets and only markets, which tells me, I don't know.

I guess when we do politics, you don't like Mr. Logic? You got to like Mr. Logic. Anyway, what we promise going forward, we'll do lots of markets, and when need be, we will interject with the Morlocks and them trying to destroy our lives, both sides of the aisle. And I know those on the right will say, what are you talking about? Trump's the greatest. And those on the left saying, Trump sucks. we do it without any bias, agenda, ulterior motive. And just yesterday, nothing really stuck out.

Nothing really stuck out. So we decided to do markets, and today we'll do as much markets as possible. But first, and by the way, We hope you listened yesterday because I think everything we told you yesterday pretty much came to fruition even more today. But we do have some near term. I wouldn't call them changes. Let's call them tinkering.

We're going to tinker a little bit with a couple of things. And then we'll take it from. there. Okay. Again, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it at GaryK.com. We'll also post it on our X feed. If you don't follow us on X, you should. If you'd like to email us, all you've got to do is be nice. We'll also post it on the YouTube channel of BizTV. So, for weeks, and weeks and weeks. There have been some mainstays on our thoughts on the market.

What are some of the mainstays? Number one, crypto is in a bare market. It wasn't dropping. It's not, don't worry. It's in a bare market. And by rule, bare markets will go farther and longer than anybody expects by rule all the tout artists will tell you every day's the bottom

by rule it'll decide for itself when it wants the bottom by rule when everybody gets bearish we'll look to see if it's getting better it didn't get better today had another rough day, but I will tell you this.

You know Bitcoin hit 125, right? 125,000. And you do know, I do believe it is under 75,000 now. I'm about to tell you, Bitcoin price, 73,467. Some investment outfit came out today and said it was going to 38,000. They didn't tell you it was going to 38,000. $38,000 when it's $125,000. They didn't tell you that when it was $120. They didn't tell you that was in $110 or $100 or $90.80. They're waiting for $73,000 now telling you it's going to $38,000, whatever. We'll pay attention to the market. The woman, you know that woman, two days ago called for $1.5 million on Bitcoin by 2030. It now has to go up more than 20-fold. for her to be right.

And I find, and I'm going to be very careful with my words, for my industry, that disgust me. It disgusts me. It pisses me off. Why? Because they parade her like she's George Soros, when her main fund is down to 50% since 2021, and if one person has been acting on her protestations, by the way, she's been saying this for a while, that's one person too many.

So we're just letting you know it remains an avoid. I'm actually surprised. There's been no let up. But then again, not surprised in that we told you specifically. specifically, if the 8 to 9 weeks of the recent lows get taken out, it will invite more selling. And that's exactly what it did. The low was 4668 of those, let's see, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 weeks. It closed at 4157 today.

That's IBIT. It's one of the proxies. And, listen carefully, new yearly lows. Did you hear that? New yearly lows for Bitcoin. Want me to repeat that? It's at new yearly lows. Ethereum, not new yearly lows, but close.

Ethereum has gone from 39, to 17 to 40 to 17 to half. So that is more than 50% obviously. And Bitcoin is now in the 40s. And I want you to remember a few things. Those people you're seeing telling you to buy every day, they don't know. They're in prayer mode now.

Do you understand that? They don't know if it's going to go back to 125 or go to 38,000 like somebody predicts. I don't know, but guess what I do know? It's in a bare market. And until it stops, it's in a bare market. And we hope you listened. Another part of our equation that was very loud by us.

Weeks ago. Not yesterday. Not a week ago. Weeks and weeks ago, in fact, we started beating the drums on Oracle. And we were just questioning every day, what the hell is going on with Oracle? How is it possible? There got 400 billion in backlog and the stock is crumbling. Well, Oracle, the break of the 50 day, was a 277.

it's 146 but we knew before then we thought the break of the $300 mark was troubled and then Microsoft the break of the 50 day was at 514 it's 414 now so you add up Oracle and Microsoft the two head honcho top dog big cheeses and then the salesforce.com that topped out over a year ago. And then you add in Adobe that is crumbled more than a year ago. Those are the big four, but you got to add one more, and that's SAP out of Germany. And that topped out badly at 313, and it's under 200 now. So once it broke the 50 day, we're on this show and telling you, avoid software.

And as usual, we told you, we have no idea how bad it gets, far it goes, but we're really scratching our head on Oracle and Microsoft because we keep being told they are the AI, AI, AI, AI, AI receivers and reset. You know what I'm talking about. And then little by little piece by piece, inch by inch, they broke them all. They broke them all. From Intuit to Service Now, to Workday, to Synopsis, to Autodesk, I can go through the whole freaking list, and they have just been destroyed with the IGV. That's an ETF, it's dropped from 118 to a close of, let's call it 84. That's 34 on 118.

30% up next, where it stands, and we're going to tinker a little bit. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your first? Your wallet. Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it one, once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun.

Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, let me tell you what happened in the last day. While we're telling you for weeks and weeks to avoid software, all of a sudden I see everybody talking about how bad software is. and the reason is is news came out that the reason this is going on is because this company Anthropic is doing things with their AI that is blowing the doors off of companies in the AI space, this, that and the other thing.

And as usual, the pundits, everything's fine. no worries while they're getting crushed but I noticed it was getting reported and reported and it got very noisy today how bad software has been after a 30% drop for the ETF there are stocks down 50 and 60 famous Palantir was down 12% today that's gone from 207 to 140 Last I looked, 207 to 140, that's over 60. Oh, that's over 30%. So here's a little tinkering. Typically, after a drop and then all of a sudden it's being reported left and right,

maybe we'll get some bounces. Maybe we'll get some counter trend. You know what the problem with that is? Something down 50 in bouncing 10 is still in a bare market. And it's still an avoid. So that's a little tinker. I don't know if it will occur or not. But typically, once it gets noisy to that side, we'll see.

Now, maybe I'm not tinkering. Anyway, software is in a bare market and just what they're telling me. And just so you know, there is a something called S-A-A-A-S. which is software as a service. What it is, it's cloud-based model that delivers applications over the internet on a subscription basis, where the providers manage security and infrastructure and things like that. And the worry is, all this AI will take the place of that.

And while some things bounce today, let me give you a few that didn't. Apple oven, APP down $74 to $387, Palantired down almost 19 to 139. That's just a couple. Just a couple. Others did bounce. Intuit was up $11. He's only one problem with that.

Intuit in the last three weeks dropped $160. Which, by the way, boggles the mind. So software remains in a void. Recently, we told you that gold and silver felt climactic, and that big two-down days felt like that was it for now. And we said to you, I think we're going to get some backing and filling, some time and price. They rallied it up, was strong early, not so great.

great late. I'm just thinking you're going to need to be patient in here right now along those lines. That's all. Patient. I'm not sure if the final move is in. What I'm pretty sure of, near term, the high of the last week, it's going to be tough to get through anytime soon. But we do know it is gold and silver, and we'll see how it goes. Next. We have been telling you that the lower beta value type areas have been getting the money flows. And I have to tell you another day of it today. And let me state for the record, I'm actually surprised about how much territory, some industrials, materials, and the like have covered in recent days. We took a void off oils weeks ago and have been telling you recently, boy, there's some things in new yearly highs.

That's another area. We call it our stuff area. It's oils, retail, housing, transports, travel, economically sensitive. Even consumer staples have been doing better. Guess what happened today? the Dow up 260, the NASDAQ down 350, the NASDAQ 100 down 447 today. Money flowing out of tech, money flowing in to the stuff. That is what happened today.

Best way I can explain it. Out of one into the other. and again, some of the moves from me, wow, wow. If I tell you that's something like W.W. Granger, which broke out yesterday, I think I mentioned it, up another 3.5% today. Or a Carlisle reports a 13% drop in earnings, zero percent sales growth, and it goes up 11% today. stuff if I tell you writer

broke out above 200 two days ago and is already up 6% Norfolk Southern Federal Express J.B. Hunt Union Pacific in the transports Old Dominion Freight

reports an 11% drop in earnings, a 6% drop in sales up 10% today stuff so we're just letting you know money's flowing into stuff. I harken back to William O'Neill telling me one day, if they start buying stuff and selling growth,

you're getting close to trouble. All I know is in real time, for the stuff, no trouble. But I got a few more things to mention. They came after the semiconductors today. Dropped at 347. Was down 500. The semiconductor index cracked the 21-day moving average today pretty handily. That's to be watched. Do you know why?

I told you, with how weak software is if they come after the semis, that's it for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. It will take out the 50 day. We'll explain that up next. On this, the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture

X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. you're going to feel better if you talk to. So, the NASDAQ today at one point hit 22684. That is 220 points lower than the finish. Yeah, I didn't even need an abacus for that. The NASDAQ was down 570 today at one time, closed down 350. but still on the icky side. And finish below the 50-day moving average.

Just letting you know. The NASDAQ 100 looks about the same. And very simply, if continues to stay below, bad, get back above, good, potentially good. And that's the story of that. But the bigger story for me, regional banks, rails, truckers, some on terrible earnings, firmer retail stocks, oils, firmer but certainly not in the bull market, the housing and housing related. Some consumer staples, Pepsi and Coke, are at yearly highs. Restaurants, can't be too excited there. Economically sensitive stuff. Yesterday, Illinois Tool Works on single-digit growth.

Yesterday goes from 263 to 278 on those earnings up another 10 bucks today. Let me repeat. Stuff. And we'll see where it goes from here. my middle screen that for a long time didn't even have to pay attention to, it is lighten up like a pinball machine. Let's segue. We warned you, what was it about, I'll tell you when exactly it was. In around September, we would come on this show daily and say to you these words, nuclear stop.

quantum stocks, rare earth stocks, drones, robo this, that, and the other thing, especially the ones with no sales. What you need to know is if nothing changes, they will all go back to where they came from. Now, what that means with nothing changes if these companies still have no sales. That was September. Every day. Let's go through them. Our poster child was O-K-L-O. Hit 194,

which gave it a $30 billion market cap with no sales. It's $68 now. Three months. $194 to $1.94. In that realm, there was one name that we told you has been public since like 2003 and still has no sales, but still rallied up because it's involved in nuclear. 31 down to 14 in three months.

How about 464 down to 251 for symbol L-E-U? Or how about 61 down to 27 for NNE? And then in quantum, how about 46 down to 20? Just picking a couple of out. How about 19 down to 8? Or how about the drone thing? 21 down to 10. And we are not putting these.

companies down we're just mentioning the stocks for all we know some of these companies going to be big time eventually we're all for that we root for success but we also know markets we also know markets and our thought process has come to fruition the rarest stocks it breaks our heart that every other week the administration is mentioning a no sales rare earth name. They mentioned one a while back and it went from 20 to 44, back to 11. They just mentioned again, just went from 20 to 32. It's already back to 23. It's got no sales. Here's one that just went from 20 to 12 in the last eight days in the rare earth. Here's another one, 32 down to 13.

You all be careful. We want you to remember something, and this is just fact. This administration and the pals have been promoting crypto, and it's being destroyed. And I'm not just talking Bitcoin. Other coins are down 70 and 80%. They came out with meme coins that are down 99%. You got to watch yourself. There's too much touting and shouting and shouting and too many insiders making too much money

at your expense in a lot of stuff that has no sales. We just tell you, you have to decide. Rules of the market. We don't care who's back in what. If you're buying no sales companies when the curtain comes down, you are going to lose your arse. And this is not an opinion. It is a study of every bull and bear market going back through time.

And it's already happened again in 90 days. And we didn't time it. We said eventually. And we also said we don't know what eventually is. Eventually came pretty damn quick. Now, I'm being asked every day, where do I think crypto's going? I don't know. All we can tell you is it remains in a bare market and had another crappy day today.

And guess what I saw today? on social media not making this up senators asking the president for the government to buy Bitcoin really quote some GOP lawmakers

push Treasury to buy Bitcoin you know it has me asking what senators own a crap load of Bitcoin and they're getting there you know what's you know what and they want government to interfere with it I will be so pissed off if the government buys Bitcoin. And that'll tell me the corrupt or even more corrupt than I even thought.

But they're out there. Senator Cynthia Loomis is suggested to the Treasury Secretary buy Bitcoin. She told reporters last year she raised the idea and would support action under existing executive authority. They have no executive authority to buy Bitcoin with our tax dollars. I hate these people. hates a big word. I loathe these people. Up next.

We'll wind it up. This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more.

comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly

spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. In the investors' edge with Gary Culper. In the news, Major League hedge fund manager and a big Republican donor is pissed off about this administration.

enriching themselves through some very closely knit deals. So obviously Mr. Ken Griffin has been listening to this show. We don't care who's in the White House. We don't want what Biden did with his family. We don't want to hear, oh, I didn't know anything about it. Of course he knew. You can go read what Ken Griffin said. We don't want to see this.

it's tiresome just remember we have no love for anybody we're no tank and the old line don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining when it comes to this we know corruption and self-dealing when we see it

and you do too don't you in the news those that listen to this show know that every morning I wake up and the today's show is usually on not that I don't watch the other channels,

but I usually watch the first 18 minutes of the Today Show every day. I just want to get a feel for what the networks are. I guess the word is promoting. You know they promote. So they push certain news to the front. So we like watching a network for 18 minutes. And I don't know if you've seen this story. it is front and center, so you probably have.

Savannah Guthrie, the lead anchor. Her mother, who's been on the show a zillion times, was kidnapped in Tucson, Arizona, out of her house. 85 years old, infirm, needs medicine or look out, I mean, medicine to live, blood spatters on the front porch, and in four days they can't figure out anything because she lives in Tucson on one of these streets.

You know, it's kind of deserty, and there's no lights. So they have no videos, and they don't know what the hell's happened. And I'm just thinking, this poor woman, who the hell in their sick, twisted minds? Now, there's some ransom notes out there. They can't verify whether they're real or not. Who in their sick, twisted minds did this? And man, I hope they find her. but every day that goes by she's 85, she's infirm.

And God, about as depressing as the pressing can be to see something like that. In the aftermarket, got some news. Alphabet reported, you ready for this? Not making this up. Closed at 333. Got this? Five minutes ago, it was trading at... $3.26 down $7.

It's now trading at $3.47 up $14 in the aftermarket. So we'll see how it goes. Obviously, they reported the market didn't like it, then they said something. And that's the story. I got for you on Alphabet. Coherent. That's been a strong name. I got it down $19 in the after the market.

to 192. A weak semiconductor arm holdings, 104 down to 96. How about O Qualcomm? Another weakling, 148 to 134. That's not good. But Google or Alphabet, that one has switched a little bit and is up in the aftermarket. I haven't seen the numbers yet. Tomorrow will be Amazon, who, by the way, Jeff Bezos is really getting it today because I guess they're firing a ton of people to Washington Post. And all the news is how he's a big billionaire and why is he firing a bunch of people? Whatever. News business is not easy. By the way, Google just dropped seven bucks.

So it's now only up six in the aftermarket. it. By the way, in that minute, it dropped $8. That's like $100 billion in market cap while we speak. And of course, that can change. So, wicked day. Best way I can put it. Revenge of the Nerds Day. I'll see what tomorrow brings. But Revenge of the Nerds. I'm still, and we told you, I'm still able to hold the S&P proxy we bought in late April. Still has not broken yet. Amazingly so. With all the damage some of these areas have had.

Quite amazing. And the Dow proxy still hanging in there. Other things, not so much. Hope we're helping. There were some other things going on today, like space stocks getting hit. But we haven't talked that much about them. and a few other sundry things. Just know that we'll keep telling you leadership avoids,

but you get to decide. It is your money. But I will tell you, this year so far, NASDAQ down a percent, small caps up a few, one of the weirdest starts of the year that I've seen a very long time, and we're just beginning.

And as always, if anything changes, we'll let you know. hopefully the noise out of DC nah there's no hope for that they're very noisy there just keep putting the best foot forward software think it could bounce in a bare market be very careful and we're going to do some studying here

on AI and software about why these stocks are crashing and people are saying it is because of the AI. I'll grant them that. You have a great evening. Drive carefully when you get home like we do. Quite simple.

Make sure you hug your family and your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise stay well, be well, get working out or something. I need a nap. Good night all. Bye bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, Go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25. percent off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.