Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - revenge of the nerds [10.16.2024]

Episode Date: October 16, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by your food. store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum,

your host. A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's October 16th, Wednesday, 2004. Hope you're having a good day. In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. We will do. The markets. The election, the economy, your job, your industry, the Morlocks in D.C. that use us as a slush fund. And everything else that matters, we try not to miss a beat. And of course, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. And if you'd like to email us, just be nice. Because I'm nice back. That is all. We move forward. Ladies and gentlemen, on a personal note. As you know, we had two dogs, Winston and Cosmo. Cosmo passed a few years back. That was sudden. out of nowhere got diagnosed

and it was really bad and just downhill very quickly and then Winston who is my shadow that's the best way I can explain he's my shadow everybody is jealous of me

because of how much Winston pays attention to me. And two years ago, he was diagnosed with aggressive cancer, and the prognosis was not good. Did surgery. A year passed, he's great. But these cancers come back. We did another.

Two years, he's great. He's not supposed to live that long. and now he's 12 years old. And his type of dog lasts 12 to 14. Well, the aggressive cancer has now spread. So tomorrow, my Winston is going to have some, I guess what you would call serious surgery. They say he should come out with flying colors. But they're talking about now, if you don't.

do it versus if you do do it and I must tell you it's one of the toughest decisions of my life. I love this dog so much. Again, he's my shadow and what's funny, you know, they talk about how much it costs and it costs a pretty penny for the surgery and I'm like to get an extra six months or an extra year that you don't know if he's going to get an extra six months or a year. That's what I've been going through the last couple of days. The best way to explain it to you. And those that have dogs and feel like I do, which is most all of you, you know what I am going through right now.

If we are doing the surgery, he's going to have two weeks of, we can't he's not allowed to jump he can't do anything let's put it that way and so we're setting his little pen up because he's not going to be able to jump or anything like that it just I must tell you some of the toughest days I've had in the last few days making decisions and I bent the ear of the surgeon, I think, five or six times in the last two days, making sure we're doing the right thing. I got to tell you, wow. That's all I can say.

Tomorrow will be the surgery, and plus I'm juggling the parents, meaning my wife is going to be this weekend watching my dog while I'm up in New York with the parents as my father turns 93 this coming Sunday. So quite the circle of life stuff going on in the Colpom household right now, both parents, man's best friend, and just trying to keep the head on the swivel, as they say, just letting you know. And we're telling you all this because we think a lot of you go through this same stuff and by the emails we have received from those who've had to take care of parents. Yeah, we are not uncommon, as they say. moving forward as we segue ahead.

6 p.m. tonight, well, let's see, hold on. Well, I don't know what time you're going to be here in this show, but if you're hearing it beforehand, Kamala Harris will be interviewed by Britt Bear on Fox News, who along, I believe, with Neil Cavuto, the two best, and he will be fair but tough. It's what we want to see. I am tired of the love-ins. And you know what we mean by that.

The picking and choosing who's doing interviews and kissing the rear end. You know, we're trying to hire somebody to run the freaking country. And you know where we stand on this whole thing. As my nanny-annie used to say, Oveasmeir. I don't know how we got here. How many adults do we have in this country? What, a couple of hundred million? And we end up with these two.

And I know for the people that love Trump and the people that love Harris, we respect you. Big time. We get it. We understand. And we'll never ever argue how much you care about them for whatever your reasons are. We just think that people's lives should not be dependent on any president. And we just try to deal in facts here and through both parties. We're nearing 36 trillion right now of debt done on purpose.

That's just our take. So Brett Baer tonight at 6 p.m. Eastern time. And again, some of you hear this show before, some of you after, we move on. I do want to mention as we segue a little bit into the market. You know Stanley Drunken Miller is, right? Used to work for Soros, one of the great minds, great stock people, great market people of our time. I'm just quoting him and said, he thinks the market is convinced that Trump is winning. And just so you know, right now, the market is really starting to buy up economically sensitive stuff.

and we're talking airlines and cruise lines and building slash construction. I'm just repeating what he said. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing. I'm just letting you know because I think he's pretty smart dude. So just wanted to throw that out to you. And when we get to the markets today, a big wow to what I call Revenge of the Nerds. Revenge of the Nerds. And we'll get to that in a little bit.

Last thing, and then we'll really get into the crux. You guys having the same problem I have when you subscribe or you're a member of something and how easy it is to sign up, but an act of God to cancel. Have you gone through that? Without getting into it, I was member of something. something, I canceled after they did a recurring charge. Okay, how do I get my refund? Oh, you have to email them at this email address. And then I email at the email address and it comes back as a bad email address. So I did the smart thing and called up Amex and said, hey, just let you know I'm not

going through this crap. Can you, uh, you know, handle it. Amex is handling it. Have you I guess you guys have dealt with that, right? Because it's quite often. I once had a... I had no idea I was getting charged like 995 for something classmates.com or something like that. I almost had to threaten them to stop. Yeah, I think it was classmates.com. Dude, stop.

No, stop. No, really, stop. And Sirius Satellite. actually they're much better than they used to be but my charges keep changing and what's this for and what am I being charged for you got that too I get a lot of that what exactly am I being charged for

well you've got the VIP plan well I didn't sign up for the VIP plan well let me tell you what the VIP plan is anyway check out your credit card bills ladies and gentlemen I just thought I would bring that up to you. Check out your credit card bills.

So where do I want to start today? Oh, the markets. Up next. We're going to start with the semiconductors. And then we'll get into what's leading. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalpom, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Hey, thanks a big with us today. So let's talk the semiconductors first because I got to tell you, well, first let me say that yesterday, A.SML is a Dutch manufacturer semiconductor equipment, and they were supposed to report this morning.

And by accident, they say it got put on their website, and the stock just crashed yesterday because of a 50% drop in orders. And when I mean crashed, The stock went from 873 and closed at 730. Am I right? Yeah. It took down applied materials, KLAC, Lamb Research, and the rest of the semis. And I'm thinking to myself,

how to hell any semiconductor stock going to come back. And as we have told you, most semiconductor stocks are in downtrends. There's three or four that are strong. There are a few others that are kind of range bound. And the rest downtrans. Well, they croaked these things. And amazingly, today, ASML was down another $47 today, which had KLAC.

By the way, these are not fly-by-night companies, down another $25. And applied materials down $6.5. By the way, all 3 to 4%. ASML 7%. And Lamb Research, down 3%. They crumbled them. Amazingly, though.

And Vidiya, which tanked yesterday, was up $4 today. And still in this big, base that looked like it was going to break out two days ago until yesterday. We'll see. Now, as you know, we are learned people here, and we will read certain people who we think have game. And there are people out there that are saying, well, AI has separated itself in the

semiconductor space from everything else, meaning phones. there's a big worry about iPhones and how many phones are going to be sold going forward PCs and the like so we're just letting you know this second this can change

it's Nvidia but still in the five month trading range about four and a half five months Broadcom which got tagged yesterday also is in that same range and better. But after that, I got some names that have just crumbled besides the one I previously mentioned.

So just letting you know, which takes me to the other part, there are some very smart people that think AI is malinvestment. What that means is people are overbuying and there's going to be held pay eventually. And if that is the case, oh, forget about it. But as of right now, the market certainly does not believe that. So just letting you know, they crumbled those semiconductor equipment stocks again today, but the Sox, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was up 10. The rest of the market, though, I just caught Revenge of the Nerds. And what do I mean by that? United Airlines was up eight bucks today, 12% to new yearly high, on a 9% drop in earnings and a 2% up in sales.

But they say things are going to be better. The transports are up 300 today. I believe the transports closed at a yearly high. Yes, they did. Not even close to the highs of November of 20. but at a yearly high and not at the high of July of 23 more than a year back but the transports and then we have housing small caps midcaps regional banks the KRE the regional bank ETF is at a yearly high though again

way off the highs of January of 22. So we're getting towards three years. And 78, 60 minimum, about 20 some odd percent below those highs, but definitely much better. Been coming on for the last four days. A great move in regionals and in banks in the last four days. I don't own any. Very good move. and of course you had to wait for earnings

and even the crappiest of earnings reports are being bought it's the best way I can put it go figure transports banks regional banks other financials master card and visa visa's playing catch up to mastercard after being crushed recently

Capital One financial credit cards and then you have these economically sensitive names. You know the names. I mention them to you. United Rentals, W.W. Granger and the like. Restoration hardware got the upgrade today. That was up 16 bucks. Their earnings were only down 57% year over year.

Go figure. Revenge of the nerds. Just letting you know. How long they last, how far they go? I don't have a clue. But they're happening right now. They're happening. Building slash construction and the like.

Happening right now. Growth rates? What else? Uranium. When you have a chance, go look up URA. It's the global uranium total return. index and see what it did today. It's not at new highs, but swiftly coming up the right side. And one of the names that's a play on it is CCJ, Kemeco. Uranium. Talk about Revenge of the Nerds.

Up next. And what else? I'm Gary. This is the one only investors, Ed. Having MG can make cooking difficult, but over the years, I found some really helpful tools and tips that I'm excited to share. Hi, I'm Alicia. I think cooking should always be fun, creative, and of course delicious. These black bean burgers are hearty, full of flavor, and MG friendly. You're going to love them. Check out Alicia's Black Bean Burger cooking video and other recipes

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The Stork Lint has six-door dresser. is perfect for denim, sweaters, and everyday essentials. And if the kids are taking over your space, TroFest storage boxes make sorting toys and art supplies easy and clean up fun. From primary suites to playrooms, IKEA has storage options that adapt to your life and help you keep what matters most. Don't sell anything you love. Store it instead.

Shop IKEA Bedroom Storage today at IKEA.us slash bedroom storage. Success starts with your drive. and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop.

You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. We're listening to America is talking Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here With Gary Coltbaum

Comes highly recommended You're going to feel better if you talk to him And welcome once again to Investors Edge And then we have earnings reactions Morgan Stanley up 6.5% today Broke out of range three days ago just to piss me off because I can't buy three days before earnings and goes up seven bucks today. For example, we mentioned UAL, United Airlines.

The last time I bought an airline, I believe was, I'm actually going to go take a look right now. the exact who it was jet blue in the year 2003 I believe and it did not last long because it topped out late 2003 and then croaked into

2009 that's the last time I bought an airline but they are strong right now can't argue the point synchrony financial reports earnings up 6% today, SYF, that broke out

five days ago. And now it's extended off of the earnings report. Even things like a U.S. Bank Corp. Up 4% today. On a 2% drop in earnings and a 2% drop in sales

because that's what happens. And the rest of the week we'll have Blackstone Travelers in the Down, Netflix, Taiwan semi-intuitive surgical, Procter & Gamble in the Dow, American Express in the Dow. So good day today, except for a lot of big tech.

The NASDAQ 100 hardly budged. Hardly budged. But the Dow up 330, why? Well, United Health was down 45 bucks yesterday. It was up 15 today. That's 100 Dow points. Goldman was up seven about 47 Dow points

after reversing on their earnings and just nothing well Amgen was down three Apple was down two no big deal Microsoft still laboring was down two and a half was down at one time today I think like six bucks stock very much laboring

just not a good time for the big tech but a good time for revenge of the nerds and may I state for the record I hate the nerds but that's where the money's flowing right now and we'll see where it takes us

what else did I have to mention to you I'm not saying this is bad but I have a few nuclear stocks that have no sales skyrocket today and do you mind if I don't mention them you can go look up what nuclear stocks nuclear here's one develops portable nuclear energy solutions total sales zero was up 37 percent today here's another one uh designs and deploys advanced fission

power plants was up 42 percent today Total sales, zero. Here's another one that was up 39% today. By the way, these are mostly lower priced. Designs and develop small nuclear modular reactor technology. Total sales, zero. And this one I'm mentioning looks like it came out as a SPAC. In March of 21, went from $10,000, down.

down to 2 is now up to 19, up 6 bucks this week. So we'll let you know there's this no sales speculation in nuclear right now. I don't know why. If you do, email me. But that's the story. Nuclear, with no sales. I bet if they had sales, they go down in price. so I wanted to mention that to you

Midcaps MDY edges into new high ground the Russell 2000 not there yet but knocking on the door Of course if I bought the Russell 2000 Run for the Hills because I stopped out twice In previous months It teased twice

And failed twice Because the regional banks would fail. Maybe they don't fail this time. And that is all. Dow up 337, but S&P only up 27, NASDAQ 51, but the NASDAQ 114. Transports are juicy 314. Semis hardly budged, but small in midcaps, and nerds. And that's not putting them down, it's just revenge of the nerds. When I have Let's see the movers today. Bank of Montreal. That moves. Synchronicy financial. T.R. Price. Norfolk Southern. And as I mentioned, United Airlines, dang. Tomorrow is another day.

I can't really complain about today except I had two stocks that were down. Big Tech. Full disclosure. Yesterday, as we segue a little bit, I had said to you about the election, what happened to campaign finance reform? How is it possible that somebody can raise a billion dollars? We just want you to remember how they lied to you. We, the slush fund, were lied to that when they came up with their campaign finance reform, they told us it would take money out of politics. You remember that? Well, you know what I got today?

As I was perusing in the morning, 16 billion total in donations total in 2012. In 2014. $16 billion for all the elections. There's your campaign finance reform. form. Those of you who love the left, those of you have loved the right, those of you that hate the right, those of you that hate the left, we're just letting you know, they all lied to you. Thus, we have no skin in the game because we think they all suck, some worse than others,

defined by they lied and 36 trillion of debt right now just wanted to let you know I had no idea and then I'm looking 16

billion dollars 16 billion by the way by comparison 2008 was 5 billion 2012 6 but campaign finance reform was supposedly to take the money out of politics. Uh-huh.

Uh-huh. Uh-huh. Just find me one that keeps our taxes low. Regulations, you can have them, but not onerous. Balance the budgets and get the hell out of our way. Strong defense. 100% backing of our police. and are firemen and women, anybody in uniform, pay teachers more than they are getting paid,

fix the education system. Have you seen our math scores? Just let you know. Fix the border, which I'd be able to do within 12 months. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, or whatever else? This is the one only investor's edge. Life with CIDP can be tough, but the Thrive Team, a specialized squad of experts, helps people living with CIDP make more room in their lives for joy. Watch Rare Well Done. In all-new reality series, Rare Well Done offers help and hope to people across the country who live with the rare disease CIDP. Watch the latest episode now, exclusively on Rare Well Done.com. Ever feel like your bedroom's running out of space?

Here's the good news. You don't have to sell your favorite things to make space. With IKEA bedroom storage solutions, dressers, wardroves, full closet systems, even storage boxes. You can hold onto it all. Your vintage banties? Keep them. Those limited edition sneakers? They stay.

And yes, there's room for your childhood teddy bear too. Need to organize a walking closet? The Pax wardrobe lets you customize shelves, rails, and compartments. so every item has a home. Too many clothes and not enough drawers. The Stork Lint has six-door dresser is perfect for denim, sweaters, and everyday essentials. And if the kids are taking over your space, Trofast storage boxes make sorting toys and art supplies easy and clean up fun.

From primary suites to playrooms, IKEA has storage options that adapt to your life and help you keep what matters most. Don't sell anything you love. Store it instead. Shop IKEA Bedroom Storage today at IKEA.us. slash bedroom storage. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.

apus.edu.edu. Or listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investers Edge with Gary Culper.

And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. So Winston will have a cat scan tomorrow, the surgery, as long as the cat scan goes well. And he'll stay at the hospital overnight. Come on home. We're going to put up this pen for him

because he can't jump on anything. And I guess we're getting one of these small things around the neck because he can't touch the stitches. Oh, my poor little Winston. And when I tell you, he's my shadow, he's my shadow. And how did we get Winston? My son Aaron, when he was in college,

five months before he knew he was moving to New York City, he rescued Winston, and dropped them off at our doorstep, knowing he was moving to New York. Best thing he could have ever done, 12 great years. And we're hoping for 13 and 14. But we do know, I made sure to look it up today, 12 to 14. So even with this scourge of cancer, he's lasted, lasted, he's lived more than 12 years now. And happy is all hell. And believe me, it's been racking my brains whether even do this surgery. Because I know he's going to go through crap for a couple of weeks. Man, the decisions you make as you get older in life.

Speaking of that, you know, we're a little bit all over the place today, but we like talking personally as well as markets. And again, it's Revenge of the Nerds markets, small and midcaps, big tech not really happening right now. Airlines, cruise lines, housing almost, transports, stuff. So we're just letting you know, I just turned 64. And if you met me, you wouldn't think I was 64 in case you don't know. But I have to tell you. And then, you know, I kept in shape and whatever. But then I had six months of back spasms.

Took me a few more to really get going. It is amazing at this age, if you are not working out, how easily you go downhill. So, and I'm still in shape. You should see some of the golfers I was with this weekend. I rode up last night for two hours, a gargantuan plan for this age to make sure not only stay in shape, I'm gone for it. I'm not letting age get me. I'm going to get back to like when I was 30.

I'm going to start slow, build up. And the reason I'm doing this is because I have checked out others this age that look like Schwarzenegger. So if they were able to do it, why not Gary? So just letting you know. And if you want to join in, let me know. We'll tell you and show you what's going on. I woke up this morning did 15 sets. three rounds of boxing, 20 minutes on the inclined trainer, that was before 7.30 in the morning.

And tonight, doubling up, there you go. How's that for a show today? We got dogs, we got exercise, we got elections, and we got revenge of the nerds in the market. And remember, massive amounts of earnings to come and so far even crassive. Crapy numbers. Seriously. Even crappy numbers are getting bought in the financials. The greatest bookies on earth. The banks and the credit card companies, they're great. They're bookies. So that's going on. And we'll let you know if things change. I always get asked about the indices. All I can tell you is that since November of last year, a certain percentage, we've rode up the S&P 500. I'm going to say about 80% of the time. There was a correction starting in March into the end of April, and we sold as it topped out, bought back in in May. Then it topped out again, sold second time. We bought a third time and lost a little on the fourth time the recent one we're on our way and let's hope it continues i was thinking to myself last night if i just put a hundred percent of my money back in last

november and did all this and not even have to deal with any stocks i think i may have been better no actually not because there's the invidia move the meta the facebook move as well some other things we tagged but we're always contemplating we're always thinking we're always thinking how to improve in a business that ain't so easy. I know what they try and tell you. Just think long term, everything is great and just own it. I can show you a thousand stocks, maybe more throughout the years. A lot of them are gone.

A lot of them, they told you how to hold for life that are gone. We're down 50, 60, 70, 80 percent, or more. Just remember that. but right now S&P almost back to the highs again after a couple of crummy days especially those semis

that they cracked again today amazing crash in semi equipment companies that AI better stick so we're just letting you know where the strength is it's your job to scan your job to decide. We're just telling you what we're seeing.

That all said, don't forget tonight, 6 p.m., Brit Bear, Fox News, with the vice president. Till tomorrow, have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise.

Stay well, be well. Have a great one, everybody. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gets. Gary cult bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing

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