Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Reversal of the Reversal of the Reversal of the Reversal.

Episode Date: April 12, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbaum, your host. A thanks to being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. I think it's April 12th.

It's 2013. I think it is Wednesday. I hope you're having a good day, ladies and gentlemen. Let me spend a few moments. First off, this is Investor Zed. Serious talk on you and everything that affects you with the markets, the economy, jobs, unemployment, taxes, deficit spending, scam, shams, corruption, you name it, we try to cover it. And we do it very seriously with a little comedy injected.

If you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. If you don't follow us on Twitter, you can go to Twitter. Twitter, simple as that. You may email me. Just be nice. And that's where I want to start. I got an email. His name is Sheldon. We leave out his last name. He's from Arizona. He gave me some very constructive criticism, saying I have too many, I guess, you know, the expletives that I use when describing certain people in this country that have led us astray. and we appreciate that. We absolutely appreciate that kind of constructive because he's right. It happens quite often where I don't lose it. It's pretty much not thought out.

It just comes out. And let me explain a little bit, and these are not excuses. They're explanations. So what do we all do every year? day, we wake up, go to work, try to do better for our families and ourselves, move up the ladder of success, enjoy our lives. Our expectation is our leaders of the country, our lawmakers, are working for us and not against us. We've used this language with you and we really mean it. We've never been more optimistic on most of us.

We've never been more pessimistic on most of them. And you really don't even need big explanations on them. All you have to do is look at the numbers, as well as a couple of specific things that came out of their mouths. And after all is said and done, look what they have put us into. but their hope and they have it right is that we're not paying attention because why we wake up every morning we got things to do we have things to do you know I have a pad I have things to do every day I have a list of things I have to get done how can I pay attention to them

and they've perfected it that we all pay attention elsewhere to the point point where they've created these teams. And it doesn't matter how bad they are if you're on their team, you love them. If they're not on your team, you hate them. They've created that and they've done it so well. On the left, it does not matter what that person on the left does. They're voting for them. On the right, it doesn't matter how bad that person they're voting from. They've perfected it. they've perfected that they know that we have all these other things to do while they are ruining us. Putting major headweds in front of us, that's where the expedives come from.

We can start with Obama, who seems like the nicest guy. Great husband, great father, never met the guy. But he lied on a huge piece of legislation. In plain sight, you have a guy named. John Gruber, one of his architects of Obamacare, on video, more than once saying we lied to the American public on purpose because we would not be able to get it passed. And the reason we were able to lie is because the American public are stupid. They knew it would not pass. If the truth came out that you can't bring all these people onto insurance and take care of pre-existing

conditions and premiums are going to go down? That's what they sold it on. And guess what? How's your premiums the last 10 years? While they tell you it's such a success, mine have skyrocketed. Of course, because we have to pay for everybody. Redistribution through health care. Go look at the video. But we have all these things to do and we got to pay attention to the person and we got to move forward. We can't we start time on that. Explitives. And then there's Trump, who I had such hope for. And I keep hearing, well, he had great policies. We have to put aside him the person. Really? Great policies. Do you remember what he campaigned on? Oh, I'm the greatest negotiator on earth, the art of the deal. And here,

is what I'm going to do. We're going to make sure budgets are balanced and we're going to cut those deficits down and he immediately walked in and boom, massive spending and six trillion dollars of deficits later. Donald Trump, who also begged and pleaded and cajoled the central bank for easy money and printing of money. He lied six trillion later. Explitives, not to mention all his other BS, which is nonstop to this day. And then there's Joe Biden, the moderate. I'm moderate Joe. I'm here for you, the man of the people.

We're going to do the right thing. I'm moderate. I'm moderate. I'm moderate. And now he's making Bernie Sanders look like Ronald Reagan. Never in our lives have we seen the numbers on debt and deficits. But he gets on his Twitter feed and looks into the camera. says what a wonderful job he's done on the debt and deficits. A gargantuan lie. Joe Biden.

And the one that really gets to me is when he said he's lowered child poverty, cut it in half. And you know he says how he's done it? A tax credit that moves him above the poverty line. I'm thinking to myself, my goodness gracious, all the staff members that work at all the boys and girls clubs of Central Florida's and how hard they work, to mentor these young kids, and to teach them and get them to feel important to work hard and educate so they can take themselves out of poverty and help their families out. And Joe Biden says a tax credit, a check is going to take them out of poverty? It's a lie.

And he weewee's on all the staff of all these great organizations around the country trying to do their best for these kids. lie. So expletives, frustration to where now, ladies and gentlemen, we're near $32 trillion of money spent that they were not supposed to, $32 trillion, to the point where very soon, listen carefully, the amount that we have to pay just for the interest on that debt and defense is going to be more than our whole federal spending of the year 2000. to the point where Joe Biden had the nerve to propose a $6.8 trillion budget, a 55% increase from 19.

I use that year. That's the year before COVID. Unimaginable amounts of control and taxes and size of government, standing in our way with rules, regulations, fees, fines, mandates, You name it, the latest. Is they're going to force us? You want gas vehicle? Screw you.

We're going to make sure you have an electric vehicle. Even if we don't have enough charging stations, we're doing it. If we don't have enough minerals, we're doing it. Come heck or high water. Because I'm Joe Biden and I'm the president. So expletives. Expletives. Tell the people who live in Iowa and Idaho

and Texas. Don't worry electric vehicles when they have to travel hundreds and hundreds of miles of open land. So expletives, that's where they come from. So if you're offended, I apologize,

and here is my vow. I'm going to do the best I can going forward. Up next. Today, this is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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When it comes to snacking, Skinny Pop just makes sense. Deliciously Popped, perfectly salted. Skinny Pop, for a reason. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things. Like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks.

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With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And let me finish up. I'd even get it to Jay Powell. How do you feel about him, ladies and gentlemen? How are your CDs? What were you getting on your CDs a year and a half ago? What were you getting on your money,

market rates. You know where that money went? He gave it to the banks and lenders. That's where the money went. That's what he did. Warren Buffett complimented him today. And I'm thinking to myself, well, Warren Buffett is the greatest investor of our time. A mensch.

Love the guy. Love the guy. But boy, does he have it wrong. Look what a man in government did. distorted all price and yield, created massive deficits, enabled massive deficits in debt. Instability beyond the beyond. Bubbles up the wazoo that all crashed. Inflation that they didn't see.

Catching up to inflation. And we'll see if he goes too far the other way. Expletives. Explitives. And he gets a pass from all these people there in D.C. expletives. That's where it all comes from. Imagine a trillion of our tax dollars very soon is going towards interest,

not towards the roads and the bridges, the airports, the streets, the elderly, the infirmed, the children. Interest on the debt they created. On purpose. Expletives. And that's where it comes. comes from now they're not the worst expletives on earth this isn't satellite but I get it and my good man Sheldon we hear you and we're gonna do the best we can never gonna promise never gonna guarantee but we'll work at it we'll use different verbiage different

language hopefully come across the same way but they're killing us It's utter destruction underneath the surface. And the only thing they have going for them is us. And every time we take a step forward, they kick us in the grapefruits. And that's where my statement comes from. I've never been more optimistic on most of us, most. I've never been more pessimistic on them. They don't stop.

It never ends. It's a lie a day. And they're big lies now. And like the movie The Blobids grow in love. leaps and bounds. And you know what's going to happen. And we predicted everything else that's already happened. So it's going to blow up.

I don't know what form. But you know, the other part of the prediction is, they're just going to blame each other. He did it, he did. Do you know Joe Biden blamed Donald Trump on Afghanistan? Donald Trump had nothing to do with what Joe Biden did, leaving Afghanistan like a rookie. Notice I use the word rookie instead of a different word I was about to use.

See, I'm working on it. This is what we're dealing with. This is what we're dealing with. You know, Trump's been indicted, right? The Republicans are backing him. The Democrats are laughing at him. If the Republicans indicted a Democrat, the Democrats would be livid and the Republicans would be laughing.

Neither side cares. It's only about their side. Don't worry about the people. Don't worry about what's right. So 32 trillion later. And now they're telling us, the Congressional Budget Office is telling us, oh, we're going to add another 20 trillion in the next 10 years.

And amazingly, that is not headline news every day of the news. We can't survive economically if that happens. And you know what? It's going to happen. Because there's nobody stopping it. the Republicans are talking a big game now. They said nothing under Trump. If Trump wins or DeSantis wins,

guess what Trump or DeSantis will do? Same thing. And the Republicans won't say anything and all of a sudden the Democrats are going to care about spending. It's the greatest con in history, and they've perfected the fact that we have lives we've got to lead. Because if we ever really took our time to see what they're doing.

There'd be 10 million people on the lawns of the Capitol in the White House, and maybe then they'd be hearing us. That's where the expletives come from. I do it for me and I do it for you, but we'll work on it. And if you don't believe me, go like at the video of Jonathan Gruber, go look at the videos of Obama and Trump on what they campaigned on, Go look at the debates on Joe Biden, the moderate guy. Go look at what he's been saying about how he's cut debt and deficits now

and go look what the deficits going to be this year post-COVID. It's a record. It's a gargantuan record all-time high and he's patting himself on the back. Expletives. Hey, today's market rap is brought to you by Investment-Models.com. That's Jim Rohraback. one of the great market timers no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market risk proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models.com so here was today and every

now and then we got to do today back and forth we opened hot we had a better inflation number we're up to we'll use the down up 200 then down 70 back up 200 then flat back up 100 then down i think with a few minutes to go down 80 we finished down about 40 today on the down the s and p finished down 16 the nasdaq opened up 100 then it was down 70 and then it was back up 40 finished down a hundred and two at the lows of the day today it one is one of those weird wicked days. And as you know, all I care about is getting some main trends right. There aren't really main trends. Gold right now looks to be in a main trend. Everything else is a lot of mush. There's 33 new yearly highs in all of the NASDAQ and the

New York. I have yet to do my final scans today. Today will not go down well on a resume in that we were up very nicely early, had a chance to come back and be up and finished near the lows. Tomorrow's another day. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors edge. For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll. Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships, and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down. Often without clear warning signs, in season three of the visibility gap,

Dr. Guy Wynch and his guests explore how these pressures show. up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of the visibility gap, a podcast presented by Cigna Healthcare. No matter the occasion, snack time should be easy. That's why Skinny Popcorn keeps it light, airy and endlessly delicious. Skinny Pop is made from just three simple ingredients, delivering an irresistible taste without being complicated. Skinny Pop simplicity allows you to freely enjoy as much popcorn as you want.

Just open the bag and enjoy. No overthinking. tough choices. When it comes to snacking, Skinny Pop just makes sense. Deliciously popped, perfectly salted. Skinny Pop, popular for a reason. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things. Like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted life for weeks don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way talk to your doctor or pharmacist today sponsored by gsk we're listening to america is talking investors edge he's got to be pleased with that

the crowd is just on his feet here with gendarada boy with gary coltbaum comes highly recommended you're going to feel better if you talk to so i i really don't know what to make of to except we just have this thought process that when market has an opportunity to do something and it doesn't it's of note and in case you don't know for the last week or so the market is in what we call little handle what does that mean you go look at the side of a coffee cup and you got this little handle there it's like a little you and the market had a chance to move above that handle range. And on the open, it was trying. They sold it off. And then they tried again,

and they sold it off. And they tried one more time and sold it off. With the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, I do believe finishing pretty much at the lows of the day, just off the lows. We had this little last three minutes rallied up on the day. I think the Dow was down. Let's see. The Dow actually 33, Whoa. That was down 88, rallied up in the last four minutes. Still down 38. But we hit 33-85, 8-9-5. So we're up about 2-10 at one time. And that's a lot of minutia. But when you're dealing with very tight trading ranges, minutia matters. I love that word minutia. I used to be a great, just so you know I was a great spelling bee person. sixth grade Sheila Schuster beat me from winning the school and she never even remembered. I don't remember what word I lost on. And now we're going to watch because what we have now is, for example, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index finished today sitting. Now listen to these numbers.

50-day moving average, 3,052.24. The socks finished at 3,052.52. It held two days ago. It held three days ago there. Held a week and a half ago. It held in mid-March. Not so sure it'd be good news if it fully breaks it. And it was pretty much weak all day. Pretty much week all day. that's to be watched. Remember the mega caps

that were really helping the market? As of this second, it could change to mark Tesla living below the 50-day moving average. Amazon finished below the 50-day moving average today and broke the big $100 level of note. Google

had a little breakout, a little range four days ago and has now tucked its head in like a frightened turtle to be watched. The Almighty Apple sitting on the 21 day moving average, a stronger moving average, it needs to hold. Real strength remains in

Facebook. Quite interesting. I'll never call a meta. Microsoft under just a little bit of pressure. Nvidia, one of the bigger movers may be rolling over a bit of here and as we've said to about Nvidia last three quarters

earnings minus 51 minus 50 minus 33 that stuff better improve we'll see what comes up they report they don't report to the end of May so we had a CPI today I think we have a PPI tomorrow

but a good CPI a perceived good CPI did not help today and I have no clue why the market sold off I just know that it did sell off. And as you know, there are things I am worried about. If somebody just said to me, just the fundamentals, well, credit card usage skyrocketing, savings rates plunging, just that one-two punch on nerves. Access to credit looks to be tightening, and of course could be

the outcome of smaller banks at this juncture. We had the banking issue, which may or may not have gone away, that we had to have our central bank with no capital backstop losses on the bonds that they distorted. Do you know what they did? Imagine if you bought a bond and it was down 18 percent and the Fed came in and said, don't worry, we'll mark you at even. Wouldn't that be great? That's what they did for the banks.

So they wouldn't have losses, even though they do. And of course, the issue there is that if they hold to maturity, they're good. And we understand that. So what they're trying to do is bide time. But just remember, that came out of the distortions of the Fed. They took rates to zero, and in order to make any income, you had to go past 10-year yields. All that craziness enabled Austria to float a 100-year bonds at about 8 tenths of a percent.

I'm hearing it's down 60 percent. Of course it is. Which means you're going to have to hold it 100 years to get your money out. And it was sold out, amazingly. That's how crazy things got. If that wasn't the biggest bubble, I don't know what it is. And we told you that was the biggest bubble. brought to you by one person who's still in power.

Boy, where are my expletives now? Anyway, fundamentals. The consumer, they say is 65 to 70% of the economy. Well, to be watched. It's the best way I can put it. To be watched. I've also said to you, I'm worried about the job market. I think it was now about 45 days ago.

I said within 90 days, I think we're going to see some effects. We're getting some of that, but nothing bad. It's slowed up, but nothing bad. Let's hope it stays that way. Because with the consumer, the numbers I just gave you, well, didn't give you the exact numbers, but go look at the charts. If we lose the job market, it'd be trouble. Hope it doesn't happen.

We're all for the good. But call me wary, call me worried on what they are doing. Again, the expletives, which I am going to do my darndest. Maybe I'll just say the word expletive every time I'm thinking of something. Maybe that's a good move. I'll figure it out. I am flying to New York tonight. I'll give you a lowdown on how the airport was tomorrow.

I'll give you a lowdown on what city life looks like in New York and what's going on. And just so you know what I do, I speak to a lot of people in New York City. I go into stores, I go into shops, I go into markets, and just ask them what's going on. Get a decent feel. Get a decent sampling. How do you think I knew about all these drug stores having to lock up? Toothpaste! Toothpaste!

It's come to that! Insanity run amok, ladies and gentlemen. It's the best way I can explain it to you. But no expletives today. And thank you, Sheldon. We appreciate all constructive. We are not perfect. We can promise you that.

But we do put our best foot forward with a lot of hard work, a lot of intensity, and a lot of passion for what we do. And how we do it. And you may email me any time. Also in the market today, oil price is up again today. just letting you know whatever you see at the pump now if nothing changes here another 10 to 15 cents

give it about a week not good news every 10 cents every 10 cent movement and gas prices over one year period 10 billion whoppers out of the economy not to mention what it does for airlines cruise lines

drivers you know when oil price were really way up there every time I got into an Uber or a lift we had the conversation I asked them and they just get in by up next thine news of the day I'm Gary this is the one only investors edge for many men mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll work pressure financial stress changing relationships and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down often without clear warning signs in season 3 of the visibility gap. Dr. Guy Wynch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of the visibility gap, a podcast presented by Cigna Healthcare. No matter the occasion, snack time should be easy. That's why Skinny Popcorn keeps it light, airy and endlessly delicious. Skinny Pop is made from just three simple ingredients, delivering an irresistible taste without being complicated. Skinny Pop

simplicity allows you to freely enjoy as much popcorn and as you want. Just open the bag and enjoy. No overthinking, no tough choices. When it comes to snacking, Skinny Pop just makes sense. Deliciously popped, perfectly salted. Skinny Pop, popular for a reason. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things. Like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it. But I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way.

Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Hitch.

With Gary Culper. In the news, speaking of what's going on out there in the world. San Francisco. Just letting you know, and just the things that I follow and I do matter, and sometimes they're in one place,

but it speaks volumes. In San Francisco, they opened the Whole Foods Market at 8th and Market Streets. They're shutting down after a year and change. Safety. San Francisco, isn't that Nancy Pelosi's joint? I think so.

Safety. Whole Foods, Herodilit is a flagship store, and they're shutting it for now. Safety. What do we tell you? What is the number one job of any government official, and that is the protection of the citizenry. Yet, in some cities, they've disincentivized young men and women from becoming for police officers. because the way they're talked to and treated and looked at. So a lot of these cities have less. They just elected a new mayor of Chicago who came out and said, we need more social workers, not police. While in many areas of Chicago, it's the Wild Wild West.

Quite interesting to follow all this in certain cities, and you know which cities we're talking about. Speaking of California, listen to this one. In case you don't know, in California, the Democrats hold every statewide office, everything. And they have supermajorities. Do whatever they want. Boy, are they doing it. Go look at the taxes and the rules and regulations and, you know, the fees, all that crap.

I take back the word crap. They're now pushing legislation, these supermajorities, that create hurdles, gargantuan hurdles to put in ballot initiatives to repeal or alter laws passed in the prior two years which has always been on the books they're called ballot reforms

we have mayor in Florida you know if they want a penny sales tax you know things like that it's becoming a communist state run by the select few but the voters keep voting a minute they're taken away democracy there. You know they complain about January 6 and all that? Which, by the way, they're right about.

In California, they're trying to shut down all dissent. Anything that goes against the Grand Pubas. Quite interesting to watch. I have to bring up the diet industry. You know, I've been reading a lot about this OZempic. Turns out that people losing weight on this pill. And I think there's a couple of others. One's called, I don't even know if I'm Manjaro. And that may be an injection. Ozempic could be an injection too, right?

Anyway, the diet industry, which is gargantuan. Gargantuan. We'll see how it goes. Let's see, Ozempic, Wagovi, and Mangaro. They are block buses for Novo Nordisk, which by the way, the stock is strong. And now Eli Lilly's stock is now gone up big in the last week on this Mangaro. And basically, the drugs are kind of just destroying long-held beliefs that diet exercise and willpower the weight of weight loss. Well, I got news for all of you.

It is diet and exercise for weight loss. So I'm studying up. I'm no doctor, but I'm studying up on what these pills actually do and how they're. cure weight loss or cause weight loss. And I'm reading up about it. And there is some side effects and things like that. We'll see. I'm just letting you know we have seen so many waves of different things on weight loss.

Pills, this, that, and the other thing. You know, 3 a.m. in the morning. Yeah, take the pill. You lose 75 pounds. And at the bottom, Superman couldn't read the size of the letters that's a unique example only. You can have to eat three bananas a day and run six miles every three. You get my point. I'm just letting you know to lose weight calorie deficiency versus what you would spend. It's calorie deficiency and how much calories you get rid of by exercise. That's all.

if you take in 2,000 calories and you knock out 4,000, it's 2,000 to the good. If you decide to go to Cheesecake Factory and have the Godiva Chocolate cheesecake on top of the, let's see, big crusty French toast with, you get my point. That's how it works. Time tested. But I guess doesn't sell so much because who wants to work out? and who doesn't want to eat the Godiva chocolate cheesecake at Cheesecake Factory. It really is that good.

But you get my point. You should read up about it. And I'll tell you what else I'm reading up is I told you I'm on this AI kick to learn about it. So just letting you know if you can get this article in the Wall Street Journal, I can't post it because it's behind the paywall. Just the article is titled, What is Chat GPT, what to know about the AI chatbot? read it, really good information and easy to understand. I'm learning more and more, and I'm using it and trying to figure it out, and we'll see where it takes us.

Looks like it could be big. I don't know. And I'm reading this talk on medicine, how it can spot strokes and other diseases do facial recognition? Hopefully this is correct. I still remember AIDS was a death sentence. Multiple myeloma, you were dead in the year, and I know people have lived 10, 15 years. It's going to get better and better and better.

We're going to be watching. Anyway, you all have a great evening drive carefully. We'll be from New York City tomorrow. And when you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. I promise you, they will feel better.

You will feel better. And to my good friend Sheldon in Arizona, my heartfelt thanks for putting me in your thoughts and helping me out. You'll have a great evening, everybody. Did I say don't forget to hug your children? There you go. Have a good night. Bye-bye.

This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu.

By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK.