Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Risk On Continuation
Episode Date: November 15, 2022Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbom, your host.
A thanks being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
It is Tuesday the 15th.
Yeah, I think so.
2022.
Hope you're having a good day.
We are here in our Paris-France offices.
Okay, they're not offices, but everywhere we go, around the globe, we take our office with us.
Just so you know, in my office, in Florida, I have four screens with backup screens, with the trading screen, with the chart screen, with the stock screens, and multiple stocks.
screens with my commodity screen and anything else I need.
Transporting with me. And it fits. You ready for this? In a backpack? A nice backpack. And the top of one of my
luggage. And then when I sit down, I put them together. They're right next to each other. And I'm at work.
anywhere I go, I have done this from every far off land around the world.
And it is a blast to know that I can do this.
Just transport office.
And what I'm trying to figure out how to keep improving it everywhere I go.
Right now, it is approaching 10 p.m. Paris time,
rainy and cold Paris, France.
And just so you know, the market here opens,
at 3.30, closed at 10. So we set our schedules when we do the trip to get everything done.
Today we did the Eiffel Tower at noon, went up to the top, walked around a ton, got a bunch done.
Tomorrow morning on a.m. flight, 1 a.m. in Florida, we're going to our Rome, Italy offices.
of course again, they're not offices.
It's where we go.
And what we do is very simple.
By 2 p.m., we're in front of our screens.
Ready to go, raring to go.
All our schedules are in the morning.
Everything I need to get done is in the morning,
and we go to work.
If we're in Hawaii and the market opens at 4 a.m.,
let me get this right,
am, either 4.30 or 3.30 a.m., depending on daylight savings. Do the same. But just do it backwards.
We're up at three. The good news is the market closes at 10, and we're on Wailea Beach at 11.
Got to do the radio show. So that's how we do it. And I must tell you, the amazing part about this is,
when I started in this industry, we had this thing called the Quotrek.
Our computers forget about it.
I still remember in 19, I'm going to say 96, maybe.
I'm going to guess 1996.
Margo Voisich walks into my office.
She was head of HR at the firm I was at and says,
hey, we're going to put you on inter-office email.
My exact words were, what's that?
My exact words.
So just letting you know, for all the peeps out there, anywhere we go doesn't stop us.
If we're in Asia, and we've been in Asia, we've been in Japan, we've been in China.
Guess what?
Guess we're working overnight.
Now that's not easy, I can tell you that.
Because you want to do things during the day.
but that's how we roll
and anyway we are here again
thanks for being with us
if you do not get this radio show in your city
you go to
GaryK.com
you can also follow us on Twitter
we'll post it there
you should follow us on our Twitter feed
we're very charming
and we are very
very sarcastic
and that's all we got right now
is charm and sarcasm
when it comes to all the things that are going on
And before I get going, I want to say a big hello to, well, how do I do this?
I'm going to wait till tomorrow.
I was going to say a big hello to somebody who we've been working with for a very long time with the radio show that's moving on.
We'll do that tomorrow.
I've got to decide exactly how I want to say it.
And that's story of our movements.
And then there's the markets.
And everything I've talked to you about as we move forward will be about Thursday of last week.
Thursday of last week.
Remember, I was in an airport, Miami airport.
We had a hurricane.
I had a drive down to Miami to get a flight that I couldn't do in Orlando because they shut the airport.
And on Thursday, I said to you, the complexion has changed.
We don't say that very often, but we said to you the complexion has changed.
Something happened that day.
But we got to go backwards again.
October 13th.
On October 13th, we stated to you, big washout day.
Big washout day.
What's a big washout day?
Markets heading lower.
Markets heading lower.
Markets heading lower.
And then it's down big.
It finishes up.
volumes heavy that's washing out the last of the sellers we explained it to you
that day our exact words that day were there's a very good chance we've seen a
good low for now October 21st that was a Friday we said to you we think we
have a confirmation of that low that was a Friday what was the problem until last
Thursday the market stunk it was all the
Dow names. What was I coming on this show saying? Honeywell, Caterpillar, IBM, well,
everything else was dead. In case you did not know, until Thursday of last week, the NASDAQ was at
New Yearly Lows. The NASDAQ 100 was right at New Yearly Lows. A few dozen stocks in technology land,
new yearly lows at the close on Wednesday.
So even though I had said to you, we thought a good law on October 13th,
we thought we had a confirmation day on October 21st,
we were unimpressed.
It was mostly doubt types, boring, stuffy, and we were worried.
We thought it could be wrong, heading into Thursday.
and then Thursday as we go back again we'll say it again we think that changed the complexion that said how long it lasts how far it goes we have absolutely no idea but we'll stick on it with you by saying Thursday change the complexion for what we call risk on areas NASDAQ NASDAQ 100, Techno
semiconductors, software types, and the like. Simple as that. The good news for us, the good news for you.
We've also nailed every counter-tren rally top pretty much to the day or within a day.
We'll see where this one takes us. We have no idea. All we can tell you right now is very simple. It's risk on. That can change.
we'll let you know when and again the definition of risk on NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 technology will throw in retail to a certain extent semiconductors and the like and since Thursday it hasn't been easy hasn't been easy at all what do we mean by that what do you mean by easy versus not easy well we call it the hook
what they do to you on Thursday
they gap the Dow up 900 points
they gap the Dow up 900 points
what they do to your Friday
all the relative strength stocks the stocks that were at highs
the stocks that were holding up best
they were crumbled them
wait a minute you have a risk on market
and they're crumbling the best stocks in the market
what gives
and then there's yesterday.
Markets up strong.
They smoke it to the downside to the lows of the day.
What happens today?
They gap it back up.
And what happens in the middle day,
they give it all back and more on some news
and then close it a little bit better with some warts.
You think this is easy?
It's a pain in the rear sometimes.
but when all is said and done, all we're trying to do, get the main trend right.
Up next, we'll explain more.
And today, and whatever else, I'm Gary.
This is the one only Investors Edge.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working.
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So let me be a little repetitive.
you don't mind. As you know, we guided you through bear market, big time. We guided you through
the bubbles, big time. The amount of emails, I've gotten phone calls from people I don't even
know thanking me. If I'm ever in Green Bay, Wisconsin, I'm taking you out to dinner. If you're
ever in Bangladesh.
I'm getting it from all across the globe.
People email me and thanking me just on the crypto.
And then we had some counter-trend rallies.
And then October 13th.
We didn't know October 13th was going to happen.
By the way, it's the anniversary of my Bar Mitzpah.
I know my first four lines of my Hath Torah still, by the way.
We just deemed it as we,
say we're looking at a photo album for familiar faces. We deemed that we thought a good washout.
Characteristics. You never know, but we've seen it before. And then we kind of back and filled a
little bit. Dow went up. October 21st, we had this confirmation day. Now, in Investors' Business Daily,
William O'Neill, they call it a follow-through day. And what that means is just a characteristic
of how markets bottom.
Doesn't mean it leads to a market bottom
just that every market bottom has had one.
And when we use the term market bottom,
we're not saying big bare market bottom.
We're saying a bottom for now,
and we'll see what it turns into.
You never know.
That was October 21st.
But I must tell you, as I've said,
you had that October 21st.
But on the way to that,
Wasn't impressed. Rallied up for a few days. On November 4th, you revisited that confirmation day on the S&P. On the NASDAQ was putrid. In fact, on November 4th, you went into the middle of that day. You had a closing bare market low on November 4th. Rallied up for a couple of days. And then on November 9th, the day before, you went into the middle of that day. You had a closing bare market low on November 4th.
rallied up for a couple of days and then on November 9th, the day before last Thursday,
NASDAQ was right at the closing lows again for the year.
Big bear market while the Dow was acting pretty decent off of a select few names.
And then Thursday.
And the best way to explain it, a big, fat, juicy, gargantuan gap to the upside where the market closes,
one place and opens that much higher the next day.
900 down points.
I think the NASDAGAPed up 560 that day.
Finished up 1,200.
I think NASDAQ finished up 700.
Don't quote me on that, but I'm pretty sure I'm close.
That's just Thursday of last week.
That was the same day off of bare market lows.
And that's when we said to you,
we think that changes the complexion.
And what did that do for me when I was scanning?
Just saw a lot of things turn up at the same time.
You know, when we scan every night, 1,500 stocks, minimum, 200 sectors, every commodity, every country.
Well, we do get specific in there.
That Thursday, we specifically, we look at everything,
but we decided to really double the effort on the real.
the risk on areas that have been destroyed.
And we deemed, we thought for risk on, the complexion had changed, which simply meant we thought
it had enjoined the A-low, that it joined in, putting in a low.
So Friday comes, and imagine this, the strength in the market, the things that it held up best
that I would tell me about every day.
A drug stocks.
Some big biotech.
Managed care.
Defense.
Insurance.
Got blasted on Friday.
And I'm thinking to myself, what the hell is going on here?
Wait a minute.
I'm just sitting there yesterday thinking, we got some good confirmation.
Well, guess what happened on Friday?
NASDAQ was up 200.
So you can call it a changing of the guard.
And you can now presume that the things that were holding up best were just holding up best
because they were kind of the safety areas.
Oh, by the way, consumer staples also.
That's Friday.
And then we go to yesterday.
Markets up nicely.
Finages at the low of the day.
As we did our scans, you know what we thought?
Ah, not a biggie.
Enough things that turned up.
maybe got extended too quick
pull back after all
1,200 down points, 900 NASDAQ points
and then we gap up again today
and get a hook
what's the hook? We have
this news that Russia
missiles hit into Poland which is NATO
and look it up that's not good news
you know what NATO's motto is one for all
all for one something like that
and the down one from up 400
to down 200
NASDAQ up 300 to only
up 50. And then it gets
unconfirmed. Nobody's sure.
Dow finishes up 56.
NASDAQ finishes up 160.
That's off of your
change of complexion third.
You think this is easy?
It's a pain in the rear.
But what you're hoping
for is that a trend
gets made. You know what we're great
at. Major trends.
Just the last bare market.
We showed our greatness.
Well, everybody,
Everything's fine. Everything's good. Everything's lovely. We're talking main trend, bare market.
And I do find it interesting, by the way. I do find it interesting that people like the head of J.P. Morgan came out right at the lows and said, we're going to drop another 20%. Interesting. I thought that was interesting.
And a bunch of, how do I call it? Dune Sayers.
decided to join in.
You know, permabairs trying to get their noticed.
Oh, yeah, everything's bad.
They weren't saying everything's bad
while we were getting trashed in the bear market
just maybe at the end.
That was interesting to notice.
So up next, that's a little bit of the story.
Today's action up next, news of the day.
I got some crypto comments again.
I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
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He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on its feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Colbomb.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
So just letting you know,
actually it's still unconfirmed,
but two dead after missiles hit NATO member Poland.
I mean, some are out there confirming.
This could be meaningful if it's confirmed.
You never know what comes of it.
And, you know, nobody's really done anything about Russia except Ukraine.
We've sent them arms and stuff like that.
We'll see tomorrow.
All we can tell you is, as of the second, the risk on areas are definitively doing better.
And today, again, did better.
How long it lasts, how far it goes, we don't know.
We just had to do an early webcast in the last hour of the market and we were going through things.
Most of these stocks that we're saying are a big help.
50, 60, 70, 80% drops, rallying up.
Some have rallied up 20% in the last four days.
50% rallying up 20% is still down 40.
60%
Rallying up 20% is still down 52
70% raling up 20% is still down 64
You don't want me to do 80% do you
Next, before I forget
Crypto
We're stunned
We don't seek out
We don't seek out
We don't seek out
applause
We don't seek out
To be the headliners
you know like Dr. Doom and all that
but there is nobody on this earth
that is called this crypto better than we have
nobody
describing everything and then everything that would happen
our quote from three years ago
two years ago one year ago that 90% of the coins
would drop 90% or more
with most going to zero
has come to fruition
Our other quote, at the end, the goblins will be outed.
Who are the goblins?
Well, this guy with FTX.
Who are the goblins?
Tom Brady.
He's a goblin.
Kim Kardashian.
She's a goblin.
And every one of these athletes and celebrities that didn't know what the frick they were doing had no clue was going on.
was in it just for the money, not given a crap about what they were in.
They're goblins.
And you can define the word goblin any way you want it.
Now, there's no way.
Tom Brady, Kim Kardashian, and Reese Witherspoon, Stefan Curry had any intention, any
bad intention of this happening. Leave no doubt. There's still goblins. And then there's Wall
Street. I'm not going to name names. You should go look them up. Big fun people, hedge fund
managers, getting in, getting in close to late and then touting the crap out of you. And then as they sank,
continue to tout the crap out of you
and as they sank more
continuing to tout the crap out of you
and on and on and on
Miami comes out with the Miami coin
drops 95%
Mark Cuban comes out with a coin drops
99% to sit next day
and then we found out
we even know there were 20,000 coins
you know what that means? Probably 20,000 con artists
they were all trying to come out with a coin to be the next
dogy coin that came
out as a comedy act and went from zero to 70 cents i don't know where it is right now and then the
chief goblins the made-offs of the world the skanks the scumbags the sleaze bags the ones you want
if their men kick them right in the grapefruits and make them scream ah well you got one sitting in the
bahamas right now and i must tell you i never watched a video this guy once his girlfriend that was
running the trading firm, never watched the video of her. I'm now watching the videos. How
anybody gave them a freaking dime is beyond me because they're a bunch of doofuses and all they
did was just follow the bouncing ball because I became a millionaire, but you know what was based on?
Bubbles. That's all it was. The coins, the only value they had is the next person paying a higher
price. There's no earnings and sales growth to back any of that crap, not a lick. And as I said to you
on this show, how many dozens of times, it could have been dog crap and just people bidding up on it.
It could have been a leaf off a tree. It could have been a coconut. It could have been a piece of
carpet. Didn't matter. That's what bubbles are. We've urged you to go look up tulip bulbs.
Look what happened many, many moons ago. They did it with tulip bulbs. You better remember.
remember this. You know why. It will be repeated. You know why. Because greed is a very strong emotion where people put their head in the sand. Oh, I'm buying it because it's moving. Let me be clear. I think this guy will probably be indicted. His girlfriend indicted, maybe a few. But, you know, celebrities, nobody else. I believe Kim Kardashian had to pay a million dollar fine because she did not disclose she got paid for endorsing this crap. Miami Arena, FTX paid for it.
an auto racing FTCS endorsement.
That should have been your first.
And now we're finding out that tens of millions of dollars were funneled to the Democratic Party.
And this is not a political statement.
If it was the Republican Party, I'd say the same thing.
This guy's a nefarious piece of crap.
Any way, shape, or form.
And please remember it going forward, because I got news for you.
There's going to be a lot more dog crap going forward.
Right now, probably not.
bubbles have popped.
Be tough to come up with more crap.
We just want you to remember this.
And we nailed it for you.
And we're proud of that.
Big time, proud of it.
Big time, proud of it.
And it came from exhaustive studies
of bull and bear markets
and extraordinary popular delusions
in the madness of crowns.
That's the title of the book we told you to read.
We hope you weren't involved.
Unfortunately, we know quite the few that have been.
And a couple of people that we know went neck deep.
And we feel terrible.
Absolutely terrible.
Hopefully jail time is coming for these sleaze bags.
If you have a chance, go look at videos of this guy who ran FTX and his girlfriend who ran the trading company Alameda.
You'll think the same thing.
How did anybody give these people a dime?
Seriously.
Two duffuses.
That's what we call the greater fool theory.
One, then the next, then the next, then the next celebrity,
and the next athlete, and the next celebrity, and the next athlete,
and the next athlete.
Let us repeat.
Never forget this.
It'll happen again.
And all you've got to do is ask yourself, sound.
questions. What backs this? By the way, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, his partner,
have been yelling and screaming this also. They were laughed at for quite a while. Ain't nobody
laughing anymore. People's wealth went to zero overnight. Nothing to laugh about. Up next,
today's market wrap. This is the one only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One
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credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
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next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast
might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're
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What's in your wallet?
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In the Gester's Edge.
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Yeah, I was mistaken.
Envidia, did I mention that?
NVIDIA reports after the close tomorrow, not today.
I did want to mention also that Datadog DDOG,
that Director bought 50 million bucks worth of stock
about 15, 20% ago already because of this move in the market.
I'm hearing Stanley Druckeniller took a big position also.
He used to work for Soros, one of the geniuses of this world.
I'm watching it, I don't know, a shared DDOG.
This is one of these big beat-up software names.
Let's see it closed today.
At 86, the old high, and this is actually a good one, was 200.
I think this guy bought somewhere around 65, 70.
And just to give you an idea what's happened since the low on Thursday, on Wednesday,
a data dog's come from 66 to 86
and all it's done in four days
and all it's done has got back the prior week
that's how bad things were
and it was a new yearly low at the close on Wednesday
and again let me repeat
I'm not telling you to buy it sell it shorter to cover it
and I don't own any
but certainly when somebody buys 50 million
and Stanley Drucker Miller's looking at it
I wake up a little
certainly not a leader and certainly not in the bull market
but definitely in a recovery like a lot of the other higher beta stuff that started getting going on Thursday.
As I'm sitting here, nobody's yet confirming this.
And by the way, this is an event if it happened, whether these missiles did go down in Poland and people died.
We'll see.
And read up about NATO and what it means.
Good information.
Today's market wrap coming to you from Rainy, by the way,
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Dow 56 was up 4 something.
Then it was down 200 and finished up 56.
S&P up 34, much better, in the Dow.
why because the NASDAQ up 162, NASDAQ 100 up 170, socks up 82, transports 84, all were much better but came off, whether it was the news of Poland and just, and the missiles, or markets are very stretched and extended and overboard just from this recent move Thursday, which gets me to my next point.
If I had the market do my bidding, and let me be clear, it doesn't give a crap about me, man, I'd love to see.
see three days of
nice controlled sitting slash
pulling back, settling
these things down because
some things have kind of come straight up
in the last four days.
Off the lows,
low level areas,
mid-level areas.
Interesting enough, even with this move,
New Yearly highs, not many.
A lot of work to be done.
And as usual, I will tell you,
I have no clue what tomorrow brings.
I don't even know if the market's going to
gap up or gap down tomorrow. That's how crazy it is these days. Trust is low. Foreign markets
playing a little catch up. Chinese ADRs that have been absolutely destroyed a very good three
days. I think that's part of the equation. Emerging markets playing catch up. That's part of the
equation. But leave no doubt, and I will say it again, yields and the dollar coming down.
are the driving force of the market.
If they start turning up, that could be a problem.
I take that back.
That will be a problem.
So we'll be paying attention daily.
And we're going to just bluntly tell you, this ain't easy right now.
It's tough.
The bare market was easy.
These whipsaws, these backs and forths, these...
The relative strength stocks, the ones holding up best getting trashed while the bottom picks up.
Welcome to the world of risk on versus risk off.
Other part of the equation I do want to mention, I still say earnings stink.
You know, Walmart today was up nicely.
Walmart was up nine bucks on 3% earnings growth.
There's a lot of that going on.
So let me state for the record.
For now, without a doubt, the driving force is the dollar, is yields.
But when all said and done, yields are going to stop somewhere, the dollar is going to stop somewhere.
I don't think the earnings and sales growth we are seeing with a lot of them down can really get things going.
Now, if yields keep buckling, let's say the tax.
Ten year drops the 3%.
Who knows?
Then we can really keep going.
So we'll keep watch on a daily basis.
But overall, earnings, blah.
There's some earnings reports that are good.
But how many times am I going to say to you,
geez, Goldman Sachs stocks is rolling.
Earnings were down 45%.
You know, the last four quarters, Goldman Sachs,
earnings down 11, down 42, down 49, down 45.
And I got news for you.
It's now only off the yearly highs of about 7% more than that.
426, 426 and 18, about 11%.
You can't be down 11% from yearly highs with earnings down in the 40s.
You know what that means?
Your valuation is skyrocket and eventually there's hell to pay if you don't get earnings going again.
So that is something else.
We are definitively watching.
So stay tuned.
We're staying on top of it wherever we travel.
And keep those thank yous coming.
We think the protection of capital at all costs no matter what is more important than everything.
And man, oh man, we did the bang up job during the bubbles popping the bear market and everything else.
So until tomorrow from Paris, France, you'll have a great evening drive carefully.
When you get home, do like we do.
It's simple.
make sure you hug your family, make sure you hug your children, they will feel better, you will feel better.
I promise, and by the way, hug your pet too.
They need it, I can promise.
Until tomorrow, from Rome, Italy tomorrow night.
Have a great one, everybody.
Thanks for joining us.
Appreciate your time at all times.
Bye-bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
Gary K.com.
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