Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Risk On Today!

Episode Date: February 14, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Valentine's Day. Men, hope you did the right thing. You got that? Is it okay for me to say that? Men, do the right thing? Anyway, I hope you having a good day.

You know, I wanted to start out. I have not talked about this once. Have you seen this train derailment in Ohio? Hazardous chemicals, including vinyl chloride. There's significant health issues going on there. And has this been covered enough? East Palestine, Ohio. work about explosions, 20 cars of hazardous materials.

I haven't seen the Transportation Secretary once on TV. What's his name? Mayor Pete. Five leaking cars of something called vinyl chloride, a cancer-causing explosive chemical ingredient. I'm going to follow it much closer. I have to freely admit it. I have not. I saw it,

and I read a article about, it, but I really didn't do a deep dive on it. And you know me. I love doing deep dives. Okay, today on the show, lots of news to cover. You know, I do tidbits. In case you don't know, in the morning, I have my iPhone, I have a Wall Street Journal app and the New York Times app. I go through every article. Seriously, and I pretty much 45 minutes can run through 100 articles. and I do that because some I'll read all the way, some I'll do two paragraphs and I'll know what the heck's going on, and then I email it to myself if I want to talk about it today,

and there are a few little thing of a bobs. In case you do not know, I read the Wall Street Journal cover to cover. New York Times, and yes I know, you got some hack, BS, biased, lefty, ridiculous people there but man but move them aside you got some great journalism going on there though again they are quite the on the left you will not see any positive articles on any politician on the right and they will kiss the arse of every politician on the left that's how it goes or just about um when you turn on if you're the local news tonight or the network news they're going to report the market to you

and they're going to tell you maybe it wasn't such a good day the Dow is down 156 points after being down 400 though um we're going to tell you it's the type of day we want to see remember what we have been explaining to you we like we don't mind if the Dow is down 150 points every day as long as the NASDAQ's up 68 the NASDAQ is up 88 and the SOX is up 64 and by the way that's off the lowest I can tell you in the last 15 minutes I think the NASDAQ was up 100

and why do we bring this up to you? It means risk on it's where the big institutions are placed in their bucks. I will give you a big disclaimer, a big caveat, though. Friday was the opposite. I'm not so sure markets have memory from day to day, but I can tell you yesterday and today, tracing out some really nice action

for the NASDAQ NASDAQ-100 semiconductor types. And I actually say that to you I got shaken out a little bit on Friday. No harm. Remember, when I trade, I never get in trouble. But I'm a little bit p-oed. It was a little too tight, such as life. Markets open tomorrow.

Anyway, I just want to let you know really good action. Really good. So I repeat, when I come and tell you a little bit, down, down 156, it was actually a really good day for the market. But I repeat, Friday was the exact opposite. So who knows tomorrow? What we hope for is what we call continuation and breaking above range. That will be moving out in Portante. Otherwise, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. You can go to our Twitter feed by following us, just put our name in or press the button at GaryK.com.

You can email us, Just Be Nice. We're nice. We're the sweetest people on Earth. Just be nice back. Do you know I have great conversations with a vowed Marxist? I have people that I email back and forth with that tell me I am a Marxist, I am government through and through. and we'll email back and forth respectfully. And I try to convert them.

I've converted a few. Try and explain to them all that is people. And others are just staunch. Nothing you can do. Do you know there's a story? Listen how crazy it gets. There is a woman, I believe it's in San Fran. Her sister was murdered by another man.

murdered in cold blood. She said that she does not want him to pay any penalty, does not want him to go to jail. She does not believe in people paying a penalty for crime and thinks all jail should be shut down. Now she's quite insane and she's a doofus, but there are actually people that believe this. Not thinking if there's never any penalty for crime,

why don't I just go rob every bank? Why don't I just commit massive fraud? Why don't I just steal? Somebody don't like beat the crap out of him, run him over. That's how stupid people are. Imagine your sister is murdered and just with a straight face saying, I don't want him prosecuted. I don't want him going to jail.

Hopefully that's not who I'm debated. Now, today's market wrap and somewhat important market rap with the Dowdown 156 is brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Rohrabak, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market. What is proprietary indicators go. Check it out. Investment-dash-models.com.

Dowdown 156. NASDAQ up 68. NASDAQ 100 up 88. The socks up 64. Transports up 168. Screw the Dow. Now, of course, there are stocks in the Dow there. down don't care big picture we'll take all the crappy Dow days we can get as long as

other areas are doing their job and we are very much big believers in the what we call risk on areas they would be technology internet software growth retail growth and they had a really good day today and some conclusions possibly can be made. One, for the software areas that are still down 50, 60, 70, 80, 90%, but are bottoming and are turning up, going from downtrends to flattening out to nascent uptrends, maybe those percentage losses have washed them out. Possible conclusion.

Because they're getting a little bit of life. and I would suggest if the semiconductors break above range that has been tracing out for the last couple of weeks that'd be another stair step up and needless to say that would be good and we're watching that and then some important names Tesla was up 15 today I don't want to tell you I sold half my position

I'm a doofus I still got the other up next more in the markets lots more I'm Gary this is the one known Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And well, once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for being with us today. May I make a little turn here? The President of the United States, Joseph Biden, names Lyle Brains.

as Director of the National Economic Council and Jared Bernstein is chair of the Council of Economic Advisors. First off, I am overly impressed with Jared Bernstein and the interviews he does. He's asked very tough questions. He goes on Fox, gets very tough questions. He answered him. Let me just say there's a bunch of BS in some of it, but he's just echoing the president. But I really am impressed with his knowledge. This Lael Brainerd that came from the central bank, nightmarish. Another, just another, money printing, easy money, dolt. Just like Powell.

Wait a minute, Gary, Powell's tightening. Yeah, he's forced to tighten. Don't tell me he's a big gigantic hawk. He's a dove. But he's forced to do what he doesn't want to do. Trust me. We're not. We'll leave that up to you.

so not thrilled with that and they have retreads from two decades ago in the Biden administration they're all just control freak socialist Marxists another rule regulation got a lot of emails and what I was talking about yesterday about the president going after the fees and I had some people push back on me I people push back they think the fees are terrible and should be well my answer to all that is what business are you in and what if they came after you and told you what you can charge and again i hate the fees they used to call them resort fees but they're doing them places that are not resorts do you know i'm a hilton diamond member and when i go to the hilton in new york city they charge like thirty five dollars and they tell you it's for internet but i get that free because i'm a diamond member it gets you some food but i get that that free because I get the lounges and I try to explain that to them and they don't care. And then the bag fees from the airlines, again, I've told you, I never thought they'd last.

I thought people would be so P-Oed that there's no chance they would ever last. I don't like them. Well, guess what? The overhead compartment is the most popular place now for your luggage. So people adjust. And the luggage companies adjusted with different kinds of luggage. My big issue is very simple. It's so simple.

What's next? What's next? And remember, there's every side. If you cut somebody's profits, prices go up somewhere else. Do you not think if you went to the hotels and cut out their resort fees, all of a sudden their prices would go up the amount of the resort fees? What do you think they're stupid? Anyway, just how to bring all that crap up. So, let's talk markets.

I'm just of the belief through exhaustive study of bull and bear markets. That there are certain areas that take much more importance than others. And remember, in 21, when all the growth in the tech were topping out, We remember how worried we were. And we stayed out of the carnage. Do you know when the whole bare market for tech, I think I probed Apple once, sold it within a day,

and I think that's it. Now, we can argue whether we're out of the bear market or not. I believe we are. And it doesn't matter what you label it. Do you know that the France market is at yearly highs? The London market's at yearly highs. Germany's close. You have some new yearly highs in the.

the market most things are way off the lows there's you know I just you know I think we're out of let's say we're out of the bearish phase just in case you think it's still a bare market and of course we've been able to within a day or two call the tops in the market real tops so if that occurs again we think we'll be ready but if we've said all along since especially january 6 this move has been much better than every other rally by far I mean by far. And good reaction to earnings, there were more today. Airbnb is up strong after the close today.

Closed at 121, it's 135. Remember, there are certain characteristics of bull and bare markets. And we always have this line, that doesn't happen in bare markets, or that doesn't happen in bull markets. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Just know, we have. absolutely no problem reporting to you the Dow's down 156 because risk on today and it was really all day it was pretty much all day let me tell you what else is starting to happen at least I'm seeing it

some IPOs come in public markets better it's accepting some IPOs we'll see what comes of that and as we've been stating all long crappy earnings being bought I'm still amazed the one that's there's a few that's out but sea gate tech disdrive last two quarters down 80 down 93 stocks gone from 49 to 72 still way off the highs but guess what if that continues it's going to leave that in the market with ridiculous overvaluation and when the market decides it's going to be easy to take it down but right now looks like risk on is about to make another move and if you would ask me that for that Friday, I would have said, eh-uh. Seriously. We freely tell you, Friday, when the Dow was up 150, was it? Yeah. Nasdaq was flat. Excuse me. When the Dow was flat, the NASDAQ was down 156 points. And now we're getting the opposite. Two days later. How is that? Well, it's called the Vertigo market. Vertigo.

And as we've stated for you, it's tough to break markets that have good internals and better chart patterns. In order to top them, you just can't top them. You've got to go through a process of topping out, which takes time. Versus when we're in the bare phase one day and we knew it. Up next. More in the markets. Whatever else comes to mind. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors, Ed. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited

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annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just. Just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome, once again, to Investors Edge. You know, I always get asked Gary, you know, the hedge funds, great hedge funds, they, I guess every quarter, they do a filing of their positions and what they moved. Shouldn't we just follow that? You know what the problem is? It's not in real time.

They can report something today, but they did something different. two weeks ago. So I don't know what to tell you. You get a feel, though. I mean, certainly you can follow Warren Buffett. He doesn't sell anything. I'm looking at his changes. Not much.

Dropped 6 million shares of U.S. Bank. Leads him with 78 million. So he dropped a little bit. Whoop he do. Not a lot of big moves for him. Yeah, so we'll look at that. And if something really stands out, we'll want to know.

And one of the things we do is when you have, have an ascending stock it usually means more mutual funds and institutions of buying it will follow that too and investors business daily has a little note on the numbers going up so that's good to follow but not in real time but you get a feel you get a good understanding because the stock's going higher remember for a stock to go higher you need the big money crowd to continue to pay up and why do they continue to pay up because business is great not because of short squeezes which happen every now and then and things I wanted to talk about today uh Nikki Haley for running for president which means

she's now the Antichrist you know any any time a Republican runs for president you are scum slees racist than the Antichrist doesn't matter Tim Scott is going to run for president also they're going to have to be careful about calling him a racist. He's black. And by the way, I love the guy. I would love him to be president. Be perfect.

No, I take it back. Nobody's perfect. I would absolutely no problem, Tim Scott being president. The balloons, I've had enough of it. Regulators are now ordering. firms to stop issuing something called a Binance stable coin. And in case you don't know, a lot of these crypto firms have their own little coins. Imagine if I created the Gary K coin.

I'd probably short my own coin. And as I've said to you, regardless of the con artists and the touts, all you got to do is go to coin market cap.com and look at all the coins and market cap and look how they've all just been wasting away all been wasting away there's still coins worth things seriously amazingly so market caps but I can't begin to tell you how many names have Zippo and with these market caps I can tell you try selling in size you got that you can't you can't there's also another cryptocurrency site I believe it is if you give me a second I'll coin ranking.com and you can go through them and I got to tell you some of them are still showing like doji coin at eight cents was 70 11 billion dollars in market cap is that many of them out there

really but then you go into the 23,000 coins by the way there's one called dr skull that's a zero that somebody came out with a coin Dr. Skull I'm not making this up 23,000 of them how about kitty finance coin

they came out with all kinds of bull crap and I can safely tell you most of zeros and I'm actually surprised as I look it's kind of more than expected to actually have a worth at this juncture please be careful

Donald Trump now mocking Ron DeSantis calling him Meatball Ron Now you know why that's true Because Donald Trump says he's not saying it Remember that One of the greatest

liars of our generation Is Donald Trump But I do believe Joe Biden Has taken the championship belt away from him though the Washington Post is not categorizing his lies like they did for Trump. Anyway, obviously, his advisors have not gone to Trump and said, you're losing all the independence because they're sick of you, because you act like a 14-year-old kid at Jim,

a little Marco or whatever used to call people, just ain't working anymore. but whether they're saying it or not, he ain't changing. And all I can tell you is every time he does that, he loses more people. I know it. I'm like a little sphere of influence, little old me. I know a lot of independents. I know a lot of libertarians that voted for him.

They wouldn't go near him with a 10-yard stick. Just tired. and now that you have some other less insane people running Republican and that's why I think Trump is going to end up not going into getting to the primary I think he'll back away

I could be wrong I've been wrong before happens every now and then but just let you know here he goes again Meatball Ron interesting Yale professor economics professor

he's proposing mass suicide and I got to use this word because this is what he's saying disembowelment of elderly people in Japan to deal with the country's rapidly aging society no I'm not making this up this is an actual professor of economics at Yale and he still has his job when do these people come up with this only solution is mass suicide

of the elderly he still has his job I wanted to tell you that one. That would be the crazy part of the day. You know this talk about Social Security and Medicare and all that? We're just letting you know. We don't care what anybody tells you. It's all gone bankrupt eventually. So you better start listening to people that actually think it should be looked at.

You remember, the scare tactics from the left, throwing grandmother off the cliff and stuff? They're part of the people that stole all the money. There used to be 16 workers for every retiree. I think it's down to one now. Remember, all the money is supposed to go in a lockbox. It didn't. It's gone. IOUs.

Retirees pay. Get paid by workers of today. Needs to say politicians, they've earned my nickname for them. Scum. So just letting you know. Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, House of Cards, if nothing gets done. We don't know exactly what the answer is, but something's going to need to change. Retirement age, taxes, because you can't back out of them.

They've stuck them so deep in the mud, there's no way you can change. If they did Social Security years ago, instead of the way they're doing it, government-based, and just did it you-based, you, the individual, where money came out from your paycheck into an account and when it's a 10-year bonds it'd be in your control and you'd have a lot more money now welcome to government up next more in the markets this is the one only investor's edge

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What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like,

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See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culper.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. What dates today? Valentine's Day? Great. You know when you realize you're a doofus? meeting today at 2 p.m. and I forgot about it was today. Oh well, duh wasn't the most important but should have been there. I'm not going to tell you what it is. What else did I have to mention today? Ah, in case you don't know, Joe Biden put in a stock buyback tax of

1%, which is really nominal. And notice, now we want it 4%. Now we want it 4%, knowing, Nothing can get through. Just trying to be Mr. Marxist-slash-socialist after the fact. Everything's a tax. What did Reagan say? If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. If it stops moving, subsidize it.

There's your answer. And lastly, interesting. You know how they want to get rid of gas cars. A new report. You ready? Not making this up. From some of these greeny leftists.

They just put out a report. University of California wants no cars. I'm not making it up. The headline, The Climate Crusaders are coming for electric cars too. A new report makes clear the ultimate goal. Tiny uncomfortable apartments. bicycles for all. Now you would think that's comedy. No, it's real. Just remember. We want you to

remember a few things here. We're at almost 32 trillion of debt. There's no Social Security money. It's just today's workers paying retirees. That's not what they told us. The marketing of it makes you believe everything's fine. The scare tactics are a joke. They're telling you to buy solar panels that cost a ton of money, but they'll give you a tax credit. Go spend 60 grand that you can't afford for an electric car, but they'll give you $7,500 bucks if it's the right car. They're going to run $1.5 trillion in deficits this year, even though they're telling us how great

they've been with the deficits. By the way, we're not making this up. It is three card money. Look at my left hand. Let me steal from your right hand. Imagine. A thousand times the president has said, what a great job he's done with the deficits

and how he's loaded him big time. We're going to have a record yearly deficit this year, notwithstanding COVID. It's amazing. And that's why he says he's taking the championship belt away from Trump. Inflation number came out today. It's still elevated. Interesting enough, interest rates were up today.

3.761 in the 10-year, but the NASDAQ still acted well. Quite interesting. Let me give you a worry. I'm not so sure the market will be happy if the 10-year yield gets back above 4%. It's 376. And believe it or not, it sounds close, but it's still a decent ways away. Still a decent ways away. just want to let you know.

And without a doubt, rates have ticked up here recently. The 10 years just gone from 335 to 376. So mortgage rates will go back up again, a decent amount, if nothing changes. And again, we'll be watching. You know, all the talk is central banks and what they're going to do. I was on with Liz Clayman today saying, okay, we can talk. central banks, I'm more watching the real world of yields. That'll dictate. If yields can stay under 4% and just hang out, that would be okay. If they start moving the wrong way, it's called the headwind.

And the 10-year yield is back above the all-important 50-day moving average now of import. And of course, the dollar. I watch the UUP. It's a dollar index. If the UUP breaks above 2806, but then more importantly, 28.33, that would be a negative. Dollars also a pretty good correlation with markets. And of course, the housing market, we're just letting you know, I'm going by the areas I look and I look at a bunch. Seeing a lot of arrows down. So price is definitively coming down. I start with the big guys because they're in fantasy land.

I've seen some houses here in Central Florida that were $7 million, now $5.2 million. That's where you've got to be careful, kids. Sellers are still in what I consider to be fantasy land, living off of when mortgage rates were free money. When mortgage rates were free money, they're not free anymore. I believe it remains a buyer's market in most areas. Some areas in Florida are still on the strong side because we're getting a lot of people from other states. But you can tell, teetering, and that's being nice, to be watched.

The job market remains strong, no complaints. There are areas, but normal. It's normal for technology companies to get rid of people. right now they overhired COVID it's normal for Wall Street to get rid of people why mortgage right mortgage applications way down though they bounced a little IPOs there haven't been any the deals less crypto ton of firings why in the crapper so you'll see there'll be more but overall dang I'm impressed tomorrow be on with Charles Payne 2 p.m. hour

Fox Business Network, and same time tomorrow, this most important show in your life. Right? So you have a great evening. Drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better. No, really, I promise. Have a great one, everybody. And when I say drive carefully, we mean it. Bye, bye, all. This has been Investor's Edge with Key. Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.

To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.