Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - SEMICONDUCTOR TIME [12.11.2023]

Episode Date: December 11, 2023

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's a degree better. Explore more than 350-plus undergraduate, graduate and certificate programs at ASUonline.asu.asu.edu. Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Kaltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's December 11th. It's Monday. It's 2003. Hope you had a good weekend. I did. Very relaxing.

as we head into the holidays, things start picking up. I'll be heading up to New York back and forth twice to see the parents, do all the things you've got to do and go to the airports. And thankfully, I have clear NTSA, period, that gets me right through and all that funky stuff. Anyway, hope you're doing well. Lots to cover. If you did not know, this is Investors' Edge. This is serious talk on you.

and everything that affects you. The markets, the economy, jobs, taxes, deficits, spending, scams, shams, corruption, you name it, we cover it. Serious talk with a little comedy injected, but as you know, not so much comedy as of late. Because as you know, we start the show with what's happening, with Israel in the Middle East. And I just want to cover a couple of things.

I'll try to be quick, but every time I think I'm going to be quick, it ends up being a little elongated. So let me give you in a nutshell what's wrong. Sadd Night Live does a cold opening each week, and these schmucks, their cold opening was making fun of Elise Stephanick, who's the one who was asking the questions of the presidents. They made fun of her, hardly made fun of the president. presidents of those colleges. And the amazing thing, I had to look at up. Lauren Michaels, who runs Sagnight Live, is Jewish.

So I don't know what the hell is going on with this world. By the way, Cessaly Strong, who used to be on Sineight Live, was supposed to do the skit. She backed away because she was uncomfortable. So if you go watch the skip, they made fun of the girl asking appropriate questions of these presidents. I don't even know what to say. Now, as I was watching, I was like, you've got to be kidding me,

and they're going to get hit with this. And, of course, everybody's ripping up the shreds, but nothing's going to be done. Nothing's going to be said. Nothing. They'll just go on their merry way. You think an apology will come? As we move towards the president's one was fired.

Oh, no, she was allowed to resign. Oh, and she stays a tenured professor. The other two is still up in the air. One of them was defended big time by the college. The Harvard thing is up in the year. But here's the problem. It's not what they said. It's how they said it.

Did you notice no emotion, no compassion? It was just sheer emptiness by these three presidents. And then there's the culture. We have found out the heart. Harvard woman, I guess she, when she was interview and she put out this whole thing on, woke and racism and how were the whole country's freaking racist. One of those running Harvard. And then the other part of the equation, because I keep asking myself, and it's a valid question.

How did all these students become Jew haters? They're not Palestinian lovers. They're Jew haters. They don't care about Palestinian people. They're Jew haters. They're complaining about Palestinians

not a freaking word on Sudan or Haiti or Cuba or North Korea or Russia or Syria that only murdered what half million to a million of their own people

with mustard gas so we know but we i have to figure out where did they get to the point where they're so vile and vicious. And here's what I'm seeing on a daily basis. Professor after professor, after professor, after professor, after professor, after professor, after professor, after professor, after professor, after professor, after professor, after professor, after professor, after professor. at these schools. We're getting quotes from these people. We're finding out quotes that they actually put on their Facebook pages. Proudly.

Proudly. Here's one. From UC Berkeley, a lecturer named Brooke Lober. Quote, The notion that this was a massacre of Jews is a, fabricated narrative. She claimed this at a council, Oakland City Council meeting that Hamas massacre of Jews is a fabricated narrative. It did not happen. Israel and Jews are lying. And I got to tell you because I just, as I tell you, I use Twitter to have people push to me their writings.

and of course we check everything out. We don't believe anybody, just so you know. We trust nobody. We believe everybody's got an agenda on any side, so we do our own homework. We make sure. And it's just been a holy crap moment of how many professors at these colleges

and presidents at these colleges have created this. purpose. This is not by it. Just so you know, none of this is accidental. None of this is accidental. One of the colleges let Roger Waters speak. Have you seen Roger Waters and what he has done at his concerts and what he has said? By the way, Pink Floyd. They've let other just hateful want the death of Jews to speak at these colleges. Yet they won't Let those damn conservatives to speak because people will worry about violence. So we're just letting you know it's just more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more every day.

And there's no accidents here. And the amazing part about these two colleges that have kept these women as president so far is ill. The culture they created of racism, bigotry, and hate of one group of people is the most sickening thing I have. I'll take that back. Equal to some of the most sickening things I've seen as far as race. Hey, dude, slavery. But you get my point. And just go back and don't even listen to what they said.

Listen to how they said it. they're being questioned about vile vile mass death and murder and destruction genocide and their voice well you know kind of like I'll order the bang bang chicken from a you know cheesecake factory

yeah you know I was real reading from my newspaper today and did you know that the water in my city's bad That was their emotion. So just letting you know it's worse than I even thought. It's more of an, I guess, is the word epidemic can use epidemic for something going on at colleges? I think so. And I got news for you.

If they replace these people with the same, it doesn't matter. This is where your kids are going to school. and I don't think it's just these three. Anyway, you can follow me on Twitter or X, and you'll see what I post and repost and stuff like that. And just so, you know, I'm not blind. I see everything. I pay attention to everything.

Anyway, other news, and then we'll get into the markets. For all you people that hate Trump, and I'm no fan, you know that. I don't want him run the country. He is now kicking Biden's rear end in the polls. And Nikki Haley, even more. A memo to the Democratic Party. I don't think there's anything Biden can do to get his poll numbers up.

Just letting you know. We'll close that book up next. Then the markets. I'm Gary. This is the one on the Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum. Hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

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This episode is brought to you by Spreeker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing.

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, on the election, I was wrong. I thought Trump needed to do the debates, but the fact that he stayed out, his numbers are pretty darn good. We'll see what happens if it ends up being just one against him. I watched a couple of his speeches this week. he's more sick in the mind than ever and some of the things that come out of his mouth.

I don't want him being president. There are other people in that party that I think, what's the word I'm looking for? Not a psychopath. There's something not right with the dude, and I'm really worried about what he's capable of. I'm sorry to tell you that. That said, we also, Biden's got to go. he is the worst president. Let me fix that up.

We can't do much worse. What he has done with our debt and deficits and his just lies and his handouts and giveaways and his payoffs, in plain sight, by the way, are about as sickening as can be. And that follows the last guy. So just letting you know, for you and the Democratic Party, if you want Trump as president, you keep Biden against him. But let me state for the record, Trump can easily lose it if he keeps yapping away.

And things do change once it's one against the other. Next, Macy's was being brought out by a group of people. I think, I'm not sure if it's 100% done, but let's say it is. I just want to let you know. You know how people tell you think long term. You know these people on TV. You've got to think long term. Got to think long term.

Macy's, the buyout, will be at the price that traded at 1997. Just letting you know. And when I do my webcast with my peeps and I say, oh, by the way, on a yearly basis, this just broke out at 100. Oh, it was 300. Two years ago. Oh, think long term. just remember all that.

The people that tell you to think long time are full of crap. They don't tell you about all the destruction underneath the surface in the market. Just letting you know. Lastly, so I went to a restaurant Saturday for lunch. And as I sat down, my phone sent me a message. and it showed that somebody with my credit card bought a $900 Garmin watch. And I'm thinking, how is that possible? And it came to my business email address, shipped to my name with a Jacksonville, Florida

address, billing to me and my address. And as I stated, my credit card, it showed the last five numbers. But in order for that, somebody to do that, they needed my code, you know, the four-letter code on an Amex, to do that online. But the stupidity of these people, they got my business email address to put my business email address on it. So I saw it quickly, and I wasn't sure if it was real or not. So I went to Garmin.com, and I put the order number, and it was real. So somebody was able to get my whole credit card info, my home address, my business email address, even though my credit card is not used on that business email address, the stupidity of them.

And if it's not shipped, you can cancel immediately. And of course, I had to call Amex and cancel my card. And I'm thinking to myself, it had to be somebody who actually saw my card. In other words, a retailer. Because how can anybody come up with that four-digit code that's on the front of the Amex cards? And I have the address. And I was almost thinking about going there and knocking on the door and saying, you know, it's the holidays. just asked, maybe I would have bought your watch. But then I realized maybe it's some group

of crazies, and I just blew it away. I just blew it off. I'm contemplating, calling the Jacksonville authorities, because maybe they're doing it to others. I have not done that yet. I think it's only right as a citizen. I do that. But ladies and gentlemen, just watch your credit cards, watch your bank accounts, watch this, that, and the other thing. That was the weirdest thing that ever happened to me. It's really never happened to me before. Anyway, just letting you know that story. Nice little Garmin. I didn't know Garmin sells watches. It was 990 bucks for a Garmin watch. But the dummies, well, it didn't matter because the fact that the matter is, well, you know, it did matter. If I didn't hear about it in time and it shipped, they would have got it. I wouldn't have had to pay for it.

because Amex, you know, wipes it out. But then they could have really been in trouble if they got it. Anyway, what's your opinion on that, ladies and gentlemen? Should I call the authorities and go further with it or just let sleeping dogs lie? It's actually something I'm thinking about, believe it or not. I'm actually thinking about that. Okay. Sometimes there just are what we call outlier moves in the market.

You know what we mean by that. And some bigger than others. Sometimes there's ridiculous froth and speculation. You know what I'm talking about, right? The game stops, the meme stocks. You remember when marijuana stocks were going crazy? Well, we were telling you these things are worth 10% of what the prices are because there's no way everybody's selling marijuana can have a great marijuana business.

and they all dropped 90%. But they went crazy for a while. Today's action in itself, the indices weren't doing too much. At the end of the day, the Dow was up 150. But some of the moves in semiconductor land, wow. And we state for the record one word, government. So the semiconductors have been playing some catch-up to some other things.

And it was announced today from the Department of Commerce. The quote was tens of billions for semiconductor companies in the United States. On Friday, Broadcom, symbol AVGO, had their fourth quarter in a row of decelerating earnings and sales. That means nothing but slow down, which usually is bad for a stock. Up next, just wait. We'll have it for you. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-drop fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.

Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase. bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at Spreker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So in my normal world, if you're a growth stock and you have decelerating earnings and sales year over year, You're going to pay a penalty. And what I mean by that is simply this. From four quarters ago to this latest quarter, earnings up 23, 14, 8, and 6. Sales 16, 8, 5, and 4. Yet on Friday, Broadcom, which was down like 20 in the aftermarket on earnings,

opened up down 12 and finished up like 20-something. Today was up $85, 9%. It's a huge move for a bigger name. On the heels of tens of billions of dollars. And of course, when there's more semiconductors being made, Lamb Research up 32, KLA 10 Corps 24, Applied Materials 7, ASML Holdings, 14, these are the equipment makers.

They make them. The equipment. So semiconductors had a Bafo day today. Yeah, Bafo. What am I, eight? The SMH was up only 2.4%. Can that be right? The S-O-X, which is another ETF, was up 3.4%.

And the socks itself was up 3.4%. So beats the hell out of me. An outlier move on, huh? And then you had some other growth moves. It was a growthy day. a ton of names but the ones they got on a Chipotle up another let me give percent because a high price it's tougher a 2.4 percent booking holdings uh 2 percent uh Adobe who reports in two days two and a half percent into it 2 percent ricado libre two percent synopsis three and a half percent

Costco 2% Lulu Lemon 2.2%. Not everything, but man individual moves on the other end today I guess there was some rebalancing before today they were selling off Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Apple

they came back towards the end of the day but still down pretty decely we'll see if that irons itself out. But then semiconductors. I mentioned a few. AMD up five. AMD's earnings up for, revenues up for. Their earnings over the year down big.

Stocks at a yearly high. Which has me stating again, if these earnings do not start to get going, and probably in a big way, we're going to be left with some pretty serious valuations on some things. That said, If our government is going into our wallets and boy, this administration is graded it to pay off other students' loans, to give to buddies of the administration who are creating climate startups so they can get grants that they never have to pay back out of our pot.

I can go on and on. Well, they're talking semiconductors. and I gather the lobbyists for the semiconductor companies are getting paid crap loads at this juncture because they have been successful in extracting our tax dollars into their pockets even though these companies already make tens of billions of dollars. When I come back in the next life,

I want to be a semiconductor chip. That's all I can tell you. So very good day. Advanced declines were not that good. But Dow was up 157. He had Honeywell looking to buy out somebody last week. It went down right back up today. You know, the housing-related Home Depot.

They came in with a whopping 10% drop in earnings, 3% drop in sales. Guidance wasn't so good, but housing-related. Up another foreign change. Just not a lot to complain about. S&P up 18. NASDAQ only up 28, but NASDAQ100137. And just so you know, the NASDAQ100 ETF today, the QQ, was up 0.85. The QQQE, which is equal weighting, was up 2%.

The story is the mega caps had a rough date today on the rebalancing, and we'll see if that continues. So don't have much more to add. Yields were flat today. Oil was up a little bit. Dollar was up a wee bit. Gold is still fading away. And, you know, as a technician, that looked like a great breakout last Friday.

I did not buy any. I could have easily bought. I would have stopped already. Because as you know, our number one motto, when wrong, be wrong fast and be wrong small. But wow. And I gather it has to do with the dollar is getting a little bit stronger, which is not the end of the world.

It's just bouncing from its recent downtrend. And as always, we'll see what tomorrow brings, which brings me to the next part of the equation. The Fed is Wednesday. And everybody's yapping about the Fed and engineering a soft landing or a hard landing. And I just want you to remember they suck. They don't know what they're doing. They're imbeciles.

They create nothing for nobody except when they printed to $9 trillion. They created wealth that crashed. They created the inflation that killed Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob. And by the way, while inflation is down year over year, prices are still up, though good news oil prices have come down. Why?

Just so you know. We're producing more than ever. Do you know why? because all these bad oil companies have been able to get better at it and ease to extract versus years ago. Why? Because they're good companies. So that's good news because OPEC tried to get oil prices way up and they failed. They keep lowering production in order to move prices up and prices have come down markedly.

You've seen it at the pump, and that is great news. Good on that. Biden has taken credit for the production. That's the funniest crap I've ever seen. Dude takes credit for anything and everything with the has anything to do. The only thing he can take credit for is $2 trillion of debt. So that's a little bit of that. And again, with the gold, the gold bugs have got to be pulling their hair out.

Crypto. Hmm You can correct me if I'm wrong I know I said it in my webcast On the weekend But I'm pretty sure I said it on Friday on this show That I'm getting a lot of emails from people Should I buy Bitcoin

After a huge move And I think I put a little bit of a flare up into the sky on that That oh we've had this monster move And now I'm getting calls from people that have never owned Bitcoin should I buy? And I would email every one of them back, why are you asking? And they hate when I do that. They're asking because, oh, it's on the move.

Anyway, it got slammed today. Just letting you know. The GBTC was down 8.6%. Micro strategy was down 7.5%. And by the way, this is after a good move. admittedly. Coinbase, down 6%. And remember what we've told you.

We don't know where it's going. We'll just tell you if it's in a bullish phase or bearish phase, up trend or downtrend. But we just want you to know there's nothing there. There's no value to it. I know people are parade in front of you. Oh, it's going to go to $100,000, half million. The only way it does that, somebody's going to have to pay it. There's no earnings behind it.

There's no sales behind it. Remember they told you, oh, all these retailers are going to take Bitcoin? How did that go? Immediately, the retailers realized, crap. I just sold the car and got Bitcoin, and Bitcoin dropped 18% last week. So that ended. So we hope it goes to a million. Sure.

Fine and dandy. I have no bias. We're just letting you know. Our mantra at the get-go of all this was 90% of the coins. We dropped 90% or more with most going to zero. They came out with 30,000 of them, and most are zero. Up next, we'll put a bow on that. And whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you, expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step

closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen

apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, More microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. So, here's what I have yet to see on the Bitcoin. In the interviews, I have yet to see these. The interviewer say, so how do you put a value on the price of a Bitcoin or the Ethereum or whatever else? Well, there's some others.

And remember what we said. Over 30,000 coins came out. Most are all zero. But leave no doubt there. There is more than a few that are still trading with some pretty decent market cap size. And you can go to that website I mentioned the other day and go look at it. called I forgot where is it um wasn't crypto watch wasn't no it was it was I'll find it in a second I have it here somewhere you know when you do a show you

should be ready with the things you're covering anyway I want to see an interview ask about how do you value it by the way it's coin ranking dot com There is a total of 32,664 coins that they try to foist upon your arces. And I would guess nine out of ten or zero, but there's a bunch worth of billion dollars or more in market cap. Have that it. So I would love to hear an interview ask, so how do you value it? And when they get the run around, ask again. No, no, no, wait a minute. How do you value it? So in other words, this company here, and you name a company, earned a dollar a share, and it's trading at $30. So it's 30 times earnings. The group usually trades it 27, so it's a little overvalued. They made $800 million. They have this amount of sales. Oh, they sell shrimp, and they're opening up more shrimp restaurants. They're

expect to open 15% more than they have now. I'm waiting for that question. I've yet to see it once. I've yet to see that question. And not just get the answer, because they're going to give an answer, well, you know, it's part of the Whatchamadugi, the sphere. No, no, no. How do you value it?

give me a reasoning on value. I've yet to see it. And I would keep asking until they punched me in the face. Seriously. And God bless her Kathy Wood with her million, she's updated a million a half on Bitcoin.

Price. And she originally said a million by 2030. So it would have to, well, it's now 40,000. It'd have to go up 25-fold. in six years. Not too many things are going to go up 25 fold in six years.

And I'm pretty sure, let's see, coin ranking has Bitcoin's market cap at almost a trillion bucks. Do you know it's worth 800? It has a market cap of how many times price of 806 billion. So she's trying to say it's going to be worth $20 trillion. in market cap in six years.

Based on what? I've yet to hear those questions. So we're not telling you, when it goes up or goes down, we say the same things. We're not telling you to buy, sell, short cover. Just know what the hell you're doing, know what to get into. And if you're wrong, be wrong, fast, be wrong, small. And don't be stupid if it goes into a bare market, because when these things go into a bare market, they get crushed. and if you don't believe me about being crushed, let's see, from November of 21, the GBTC went from 55 down to 7.5.

Now, can any of you stand to buy something at 55 and let it go down to 7.5? So just, again, I hope it keeps going higher. I'm still waiting for somebody to tell me what you value it on. That's all. we cover all bases here what we will keep doing is telling you if it's an uptrent or downtrend and as we said

I believe on Friday everybody's talking about it now which means plus it's very extended so you had one of these little vicious pullbacks here I will simply tell you I have no clue how much farther they pull it back

whether it ends tomorrow or keeps going for a while it just started today. Got a little too what I'd call frothy and saw a little too much excitement and the emails I get. Nobody was emailing me about GBTC when it was seven. Not at 10, not at 15, not at 20, not at 25 or 30.

Once it got the 36 sentiment, every now and then, it goes to extremes. and when sentiment hits extremes, bullish, we will yap to you about it. Now, the other part of the equation, a lot of people saying we're going to have a big recession in 2024, and they point to some very important things,

just so you know lending is contracting. That's usually a sign we're going into recession. The big inverted yield curve, that's a big sign you're going into recession. A number of jobs available now, really starting to head down, talk about recession. Recession. Leading economic indicators, you can go look that up. Recession. You know what's not saying recession so far? The stock market. And very simply, we have studied markets before they go into recession. They don't top out when we're in recession and it's already being talked about. Oh, look how bad the numbers are. They top out way in advance. And let me tell you what tops out.

that has not topped out. The airlines, the cruise lines, the rails, the truckers, all the things that were getting squashed from July to end of October, and all the things that bottom, November 1st, had have been rallying up. The economically sensitive, things like, let's see, United Rentals or the like, the financials,

so we're just letting you know, the market will give us a heads up. And in turn, we'll give you a heads up. And that's that. You all have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better, I promise. I think probably every day I'll be saying, happy holidays to everybody, travel safe, enjoy yourself, big smile on your face, and treat everybody as your equals. No, really. unless they're criminals, of course. Have a great one, everybody.

Peace out. Thanks for joining. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

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