Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Semiconductors Lead

Episode Date: April 10, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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while supplies last, loyalty programs subject to terms and conditions. Visit the prodesk or Lose.com slash terms for more details. Subject to change. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Coltbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host day.

Thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's April 10, 2003. It is Monday. And let me just start off by saying, at the end of each show, We do a little go home, hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

We started saying go home and hug your children. The day of the Columbine incident, the Columbine incident, the Columbine murders. I think how many years ago is that? Hold on. Columbine, April 20th, 1999, for almost 20. Four years. I have been ending the show the same way. I don't want to get into why, and it has nothing to do with my family.

But hint, hint, hint, as often as you can, as often as you want, make sure your family and your kids know how you feel about them. okay has nothing to do I'm not mentioned that because of my family just I'm mentioning it because of families that I know okay right out of the box and since we mentioned 1999 that was the year that the bubble of 2000 that set the stage for the worst bear market I think in his history for the NASDAQ that dropped 80%, NASDAQ 180% out in 1999. And since then, we have stated to you, oh, several thousand times, that when all is said

and done, watch the semiconductors. We're getting right into the crux of something here, ladies and gentlemen. This is what I've been saying to you forever. since 2000 I would suggest to you that 90 some odd percent of the time if not a hundred watch the semiconductors they have been amazing leaders to the upside and leaders to the downside and what I mean by that is kind of simple you can't have a real bull market without the semiconductors. Now it used to be financials and then it went to financials and semiconductors. After 08 we were able to back out the financials because during 0708

the market rallied without them. And then of course, they led the crash in 2008. One of our best calls in history was in 2007 that whole year. We were just saying to you something was wrong with the financials. When the market, I remember the Dow rallied a thousand points and the financials couldn't budge. The big financials with the Dow rally a thousand. and points. And then when the Dow came in a thousand, they led down and led down badly.

And then when the market would rally up a little bit, they were hesitant. So they had this, they lost the leadership quality, but they showed us the way, and little did we, we had no idea that disaster lied ahead. We had no idea. Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Countrywide Financial, Wachovia. Who else went out back then? We had no idea. You know who did have an idea?

The market. But since, it's pretty much the semis. And when we say lead, very simply, they hold up best in good markets and corrections. When they crack, it will be indicative of the rest of the market, the eventuality of the rest of the market. And you don't have to believe me. If you have some stock software that you can just go back. My software allows me to go back daily, weekly, and monthly to the beginning of time. I can change the date.

and all I can tell you as I have done this study, I don't think the word is uncanny. I just think it's how it is. And why would that be? Well, semiconductor chips are in everything, almost everything, and they have basically moved the needle. And why am I bringing them up today?

What matters so much today? Well, this morning, very simply, NASDAQ was getting smacked around. And as you know, the NASDAQ is pretty important to the market as of late. And guess what the semiconductors did? And guess where they did it? Well, number one, they held. What happened then? Market followed.

Where did they hold? What is the most important? important area we have harped on forever because it simply works that area where the big institutions stamped up to defend the 50-day moving average. And as I go through name after name after name after name, name after name, name after name, after name after name a bunch of semiconductor stocks today along with the semiconductor index held the 50-day moving average to the penny on some names the semiconductor index undercut it by two points by the way two points on an

index that's over 3,000 and they bounce slash rallied up and market got better throughout the day. Now does this mean they're going to get going? No, we didn't say that. We just said they held an important area. And again, market followed. And a NASDAQ that was getting blasted early came back and followed them. Now we get to see whether they decide to bust out of range. If they do, market's going to be better. If they don't, maybe they sit around. If they break below today and its lows could be of import.

So just letting you know, when we give out the final numbers, there wasn't a lot of big movement today except for this area. when we give out the numbers, we'll let you know that the institutions bought the market up in the last 10 minutes. Hmm. Interesting. What did they notice? What did they react to? The semiconductors. Again, once again, amazingly so. And we'll see where it decides to take us. It does not mean we get going. We're just letting you know that today, today the market recognized it sought understood it got better throughout the day and finished on the i think the high note of the day and that's the story and when we do our webcasts and we do our scans

it's amazing how we look at photo albums looking for familiar faces and the those familiar faces continue to show up. Up next, today's market wrap. And anything else. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living,

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Skinny Pop is made from just three simple ingredients, delivering an irresistible taste without being complicated. Skinny Pop simplicity allows you to freely enjoy as much popcorn. as you want. Just open the bag and enjoy. No overthinking, no tough choices. When it comes to snacking, Skinny Pop just makes sense. Deliciously popped, perfectly salted. Skinny Pop, popular for a reason. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your

shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. All right, today's market wrap brought to you by Investment-Dashmodels.com. That's Jim Lorback, one of the great market timers.

No gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market with his proprietary indicators. Go check it out. Investment-models.com. Now, I'm going to give you out the final Dow first. It was only up 100. But I have to tell you, it was the whole day. It was never more than 60. In the last 30 seconds, it rallied 60 points to be up 100.

Right at the close. The S&P only finished up four. And of course, that same thing. The NASDAQ finished down three. Finished down three. At the low today, the NASDAQ was 11924. It's down 157. The SOX at the low today was 3,042.

The 50-day moving average, 3,04. It finished at 3126, up 55 points. Just improvement throughout the whole day. The semis. And let me be clear about how this works. These big institutions will recognize when something's being defended or something is cracking. That's the strength. That's our edge.

that's what happened today. Does it mean anything for tomorrow? Well, since we don't have a real big trend, not yet, but you never know if it starts. And if you look at the semiconductor index, you will notice on March 13th, it undercut the 50-day moving average and got back above. On March 15th, it hit the 50-day moving average within two points.

On March 28th, got within 15 points. On Thursday, hit it within a few points, and today the same. That is what we call symmetry. What does that mean symmetry? Oh, it simply means that there is a recognition of support. And keep in mind, the 50-day moving average is not stagnant. It is a moving target. As price moves up, the 50-day moving average moves up as price moves down.

The opposite. And what the 50-day moving averages, you're just adding up the last 50 days, the closes. Get your number, divide by 50, and it's a smooth-out line versus all the squiggly wigglies of the daily moves. and all we can tell you is throughout history and we're going back ages it is the definable area and when I was scanning throughout the day I found 15 to 20 of the semiconductor names

that tagged it and bounced tagged it and bounced and then there were some other names outside of the semis that tagged it and bounced will it continue we'll see success today that's what happened today and i say that with the NASDAQ down three NASDAQ 100 down 11 but as i said the NASDAQ was down 160 something early in the day so we're going to chalk this up to a very good day and if NASDAQ as we enter earnings can break above the last seven days. That would be Mui Importante. Same for the NASDAQ 100.

Same for the S&P. All sitting in tight action right here. And we're not even going to say what odds favor. We'll just react if it happens. That's all we want to do. And what's our edge? 99.9% of Wall Street doesn't follow this. And even if they did, they wouldn't know what do with it as as we've told you wall street is fully invested vehicle fully invested vehicle come heck or high water watch the guy on tv today come out oh i'm bullish i'm buying wait a minute you've been a hundred percent invested you have no cash how are you buying oh i'm going on tv so i got to tell people on bolsh but you've been bullish all the way down by the way that would be me interviewing we got these people's number

their numbers up. My favorite one is the person been saying to buy Tesla all the way down. It finally had a good rally, gets on the tube, gives himself a pat on the back. Even though he was telling you to buy it 400, 350, 300, 250, 200. We call that the broken clock syndrome. And we also call it the charlatans syndrome. We hate charlatans in this business. And there's a lot of them. And if you don't know what a charlatan is, I put it in a way, they simply pretend to be something they are not. That's all.

So good day, and the NASDAQ was down. Good day. S&P was up a measly four points. Good day, the Dow is up 100, which doesn't mean a lot to us. It's where it was and where it finished. That's what we define as a good day. now Friday starts massive amounts of reports not in number but names on Friday J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo City Group, BlackRock, PNC Bank and the most important down name because of

price because it's price weighted. United Health, a $515 name will be reporting. Estimates are to be up about 11% in earnings. They usually beat. We'll see what that means. The managed care stocks had been very weak until Medicare decided to give them a crap load of money in the latest, you know, every year they come out, okay, this is what we're going to pay you.

By the way, have you ever been in hospitals these days? How big they are? How gigantic they are? I was in one in Lauderdale in Hollywood, Florida this weekend. Oh my goodness. They're like a city. these hospitals. How do they get paid?

You got it. I think I'm in the wrong business. I should own hospitals or storage. Remember my story in college. I had to put in the summer, I put stuff in storage and I told a buddy, man, we should start a business. Just storage.

Damn, what a doofus. There's a stock called Public Storage, PSA. They all they do is storage. It's been around. since forever it was seven bucks in 1990 it's 300 today storage up next this that and the other thing and whatever else I'm Gary this the one only investors edge for many men mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll work pressure financial stress changing relationships and

traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down often without clear warning signs in season three of The Visibility Gap, Dr. Guy Winch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of the Visibility Gap, a podcast presented by Cigna Healthcare. No matter the occasion, snack time should be easy. That's why Skinny Popcorn keeps it light, airy and endlessly delicious. Skinny Pop is made from just three simple ingredients, delivering an irresistible taste without being

complicated. Skinny Pop simplicity allows you to freely enjoy as much popcorn as you. you want. Just open the bag and enjoy. No overthinking, no tough choices. When it comes to snacking, Skinny Pop just makes sense. Deliciously popped, perfectly salted. Skinny Pop, popular for a reason. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it. But I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks.

Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So there is a lot of talk that we're going to have a credit crunch. Our answer to that will let the market dictate policy. The market will tell us if their big trouble lies ahead. We're being told that we're going to have a big recession, if not worse. We'll let the market decide.

If we're going to have a big recession, a deep recession, the market will know it. We're being told that the dollar is going to go by the way of the dodo bird. That noise has been picking up a lot in the last week. Interesting, the dollar was strong today. We'll just watch the market. The market will let us know if the dollar goes by the way of the dodo bird. We're being told, oh, I've told you, earnings stink. We're being told we're heading into even worse earnings into a deep earnings recession.

We'll let the market decide. We'll just watch the market. the market will tell us everything we need to know. We're being told by some. Inflation is going to accelerate. And of course, oil prices have backed up a little bit, went up a little bit because of OPEC. If inflation gets really out of hand again,

really starts to accelerate, that means the Fed's going to have to continue to do what they're doing and probably means trouble for the market. But we'll let the market decide. The market will tell us everything we need to know. If the markets decide to croak, it'll let us know as we will go into major downtrends. There are others that are saying we're going into a,

deflationary depression. No, they are. They're out there. We're letting you know. We're just going to let the market decide. The market will tell us everything we need to know. We'll just watch price. And we'll just watch the market.

There's not many people that tonight will scan 1,500,000 names, 200 sectors with sub-sectors, every country, every commodity, just to get a feel on what the heck is going on. We will. Do you know why we will? Because we want to stay ahead of the game. And by the way, it's no game to us. That's why. It's quite simple for us.

We will work harder. and longer and smarter than everybody else in this industry. That will not guarantee wins or losses. It will guarantee that we'll have a very good feel on just what the heck is going on out there. And as always, try to put our best foot forward. Simple as that. with no agenda, bias, or ulterior motive. We'll let the market decide.

I have news for each and every one of you. You can't hide bare markets. You know how you know you're in a bare market? Try buying something. You know how you're in a bull market? Sell something. And watch it keep going up. We try to simplify things for your kids.

And it still ain't easy. We have outline roadmaps. We did not invent it. We did not invent it. Some of the greatest technicians on earth did. We studied them. We studied under them. We studied with them.

We learned. We learned from some of the greatest hedge fund managers. Like a Paul Tudor Jones with one time he said these following words, I know many other people that have a better win rate than, me and a much better win rate than me than I. But it's what I do when I'm wrong that has me beaten their asses. I don't think he said ass. When wrong, be wrong fast and be wrong small, when right, try to let him run as far as the eyes can see. But Gary, haven't you sold something off after losing a little bit and then it's skyrocketed? Oh yes. Full and

air disclosure. Some of my good wins, though, were buying something a third and fourth time. Because you never know when you're buying something. It's just not the right time, the right market. So what you have to do is be persistent and stay on top. And again, no bias. No agenda, no ulterior motive. You see what you see. You know what it looks like. You're looking at a photo album for familiar faces. And look what I found. And Bill O'Neill is famous. Gets asked about a stock. He'll say, well, it looks like so-and-so from 1957. And then you go look at the chart from so-and-so in 1957 and yeah, that's how much time and effort that man put in. That's how much time and effort we have put in. And it's still not easy. These days, we're

we're dealing with so much more than what we used to have to deal with, namely, the interference of a select few people playing God with our lives and our future and the markets with their moronic, imbecilic, debt-laden decision-making, power-hungry maniacs. That's why, every night, regardless of the news, we put our... head down and we scan with no agenda ulterior motive and bias. I can tell you flat out. If you just listen to some of the news right now, a lot of the news right now, hey, Taiwan's going to be invaded by China. That Russia-Ukraine thing's still going on. The list goes on and on. I have to tell you, if I was just listening to the news, I'd have my head under a blanket and never

buy another stock, but we know differently. We'll just keep paying attention. Markets are a treasure hunt. Very often you have to be very, very patient with them. Bear markets will prey on your wallet. Also pray on your psychology. We won't let it happen to us. And we will not be influenced by the permibuls or the permibers. They are of no help. The permabills are no help in a bear market. The perma bears are no help in a bull market. They never change their stripes.

So why even pay attention? We don't. It just shows up. Sometimes you just, in life, you see it. We don't react to them. We react to what the minds. market tells us. Up next, news of the day. This is the one only investor's edge. For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll.

Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships, and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down. Often without clear warning signs, in season three of the visibility gap, Dr. Guy Wynch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen. to the new season of the visibility gap, a podcast presented by Cigna Healthcare. No matter the occasion, snack time should be easy. That's why Skinny Popcorn keeps it light, airy and endlessly delicious. Skinny Pop is made from just three simple ingredients, delivering an irresistible taste without being complicated. Skinny Pop simplicity allows you to freely enjoy

as much popcorn as you want. Just open the bag and enjoy. No overthinking, no tough choices. When it comes to snacking, Skinny Pop just makes sense. Deliciously popped, perfectly salted. Skinny Pop, popular for a reason. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things. Like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles.

Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard. way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK. You're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Again, thanks of being with us today. In the news. Well, unfortunately, it looks like a small bank in Louisville. an ex-employee went in there and shot it up and multiple people are dead. One police officer

shot in the head looks like a I guess a suicidal Louisville bank employee shot dead four co-workers injured nine others he lost his job I'm going to go murder people looks like I don't know whether he killed him

or whether a cop, a police officer took him down. As usual, the talk about guns pervades the air. We just want you to remember something. And again, we say this with no agenda, ulterior motive, and no bias whatsoever. The Republican side won't do anything. We already know that. But the democratic sign, they're just full of crap. They've had ample opportunity to do whatever they want to do. Obama had a super majority, could have done whatever he wanted to do. Biden did not have one, but he had all three parts of government and the bully pulpit. What did he do?

He did nothing. We just want you to remember that. the reason why the Democrats won't do anything and just flap their gums all the time, it goes back to why one of the big reasons they lost in 94 was the assault weapons ban. That's what they blame on losing, and they don't want that to happen again. We're just telling you, you go back and read it yourself. We're tired of both parties, and we're particularly, tired of any of them that flap the gums. You know, like Joe Manchin, the supposed moderate

that signed off on a $1.8 trillion spending bill with $380 billion of our tax dollars going to one man, John Podeska, a democratic hack, to give out for climate. Joe Manchin, and now he's complaining he got lied to. No crap. So we just want to let you know. every time you hear the gun thing, and just so you know, I'm, I believe in the Americans' ability to defend themselves. I believe in that amendment. I really do. But nobody does anything. No movement.

Zero. Just nothing. Nothing. And we can get into it for two hours. but you get my point. It's a fruitless endeavor of flapping gums. That's what it is. A fruitless endeavor of flapping gums.

Remember, this crime, they are outlier events, but a death is a death. We'll say a little prayer for, you know, we're reading about this a lot these days. In the news, I love how now everybody agrees with us. What are we telling you about bubbles?

Who created them? A Wall Street Journal op-ed. Turn off the Fed bubble machine. That's the headline. Trying to ramp up aggregate demand serves no purpose if supply is constrained. The guy named Andy Kessler, I guess he writes op-eds for the Wall Street Journal. Guess what? He's telling you now, we told you.

Years ago, got to get rid of these central bankers. They should not be able to print a $9 trillion, take rates to 0% and screw everybody. And then create bubbles, and then the bubbles pop, and everybody loses their arse. So there's another person that now agrees with everything we've been telling you for years. Seriously, in the news.

Speaking of the Fed, you know what they're doing, studying? Something they're not even supposed to be involved in. The climate hoax! The Fed is forcing big banks to produce complex reports on their climate vulnerability. What? What? The San Francisco Fed hosted a conference on climate change in May. 27 Fed Economist participated.

You think they've produced any research, high-quality research? They did a couple of studies. My 12-year-old goddaughter do a better one. These central bankers that have no clue what's going on are now getting at the climate. Feel better now? That was in the news. In the news, did you watch the Masters? I was supposed to go on Saturday.

I'm so glad I didn't go. It got rained out. I would have been really P-Oed. John Rom. Great player won it. Brooks Kepka faded. Phil Mickelson ended up second place,

52 years old, was throwing darts at the end. Awesome. If you've never been to the Masters and you like golf, you've got to go once. Just so you know, you got to get in the lottery to get the cheap tickets after that.

some bucks. Sandwiches are a buck 50 to two and a half bucks. They sell a million dollars in their stores when you're there an hour. One of the most beautiful serene places on earth. If you're a golfer as you walk in to the place, you're mesmerized. So just letting you know if you've never been there, do it once. I've been there three times and I'm pissed off. I haven't been there more.

I'll be going next year. I still have never won the lottery, though. I think I've been doing that for 30 years. That was the Masters. NBA season, the play-ins start in the next couple of days, and then we go to the playoffs. We'll be covering that and giving you some picks. We're good at it.

That all said, you have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Really. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

We'll have a big webcast tonight on the semiconductors. You can check it out at Convictionleaders.com, if you'd like. Until tomorrow, peace out, all. Thanks for joining us. Good night. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to garyk.com.

That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.

Learn more at APU.apus.edu.edu. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, Like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way.

Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK.