Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - semis lag [08.26.2024]

Episode Date: August 26, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. It's Monday. It's the 26th of August. And in the room I am in, it is currently 96 degrees, or is it 97?

I still don't have air conditioning, but I got two industrial fans on me. Should be fixed in the morning. You would think of this day and age, but no. And during the day, I had to put on a shirt and a suit to do TV. Imagine that. Thanks for joining us. Hope you had a good weekend. In case you don't know, this is serious talk on everything that affects you.

we will do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, unemployment, taxes, deficits, spending, sham, scams, corruption, the Morlocks in D.C., whatever we need to cover, we do, and of course, the election. and may I state for the record so far these are the proposals that have been flashed out of the Kamala Harris's campaign

price controls though they're backing off of it they obviously took a poll and it's polling a little bit worse I was going to make up something but I'm not going to Oh, that would have been nasty.

A 28% corporate tax up from 21. A capital gains tax going from 20 to 44.6% on the long. A 25% tax on unrealized capital gains. But don't worry. They tell us it's only for the wealthy. Do not forget. If you tax the hell out of the wealthy, it's not going to affect the wealthy, but it's going to prevent you for becoming wealthy easier.

You got that? You got that? Think about that. If they raise taxes all along the food chain to the high end, as you grow, as you get bigger, as you get better, as you become an entrepreneur, as you hire people, as you make $100,000, as you make $200,000, as you make $200,000, as you make $200,000, as you make, as you make, 300,000, the machete comes out and dare you make 400,000? You're a tax cheat. And of course, let us not forget. On video, we're getting rid of fracking. On video, we're getting rid of your health care. All government run. Well, they're telling us she's changed. But why does Bernie Sanders have a smile on his face. Just letting you know. Since

she's still not had a press conference, an interview, and since she was not elected, it was a coup and a scam, they waited and waited and waited until they know they couldn't do primaries, and they selected her. They knew that primaries is where tigers eat their young and everybody looks bad. So why have a primary?

One of the greatest cons on democracy we've ever had. So when they start talking democracy ever again, remember this. And I don't care whether you're left or right. Doesn't matter to me. I'm independent. I left Republican Party ages ago. as they went nuts. And under Trump really was out of it.

Though, I like lower taxes and less regulations, but I hate massive debt and deficits, under the guise of we need it. And whoever wins, they better be looking over their shoulder at me because I'm going to stay in shape. And in four years,

because I got to believe that debt's going to blow up under whoever's there. No, not kidding. It's something I'm really thinking about. I don't need to start in a school district. I don't need to start in a state senate. I don't need to be a senator or a house. I'll go right to the big matzo ball. And very simply, I would have done a hundred times better job than the last four presidents. 100 times. And I wouldn't been playing around with an 18 or 19 year old in the White House like Clinton did before that. And those are facts. Just look at the numbers. We deal in numbers here. We deal in facts.

So just let you know, I'm hearing Kamala Harris will do an interview this week. We have sent an email to them to do an interview with us. In that email, we stated, though, it will not be a friendly email. we will not be asses, I didn't use that word, but we will ask pointed questions on the massive debt and deficits under the last few years, the 10 million coming across in the last few years,

telling us inflation was transitory, and telling us the border was secure for the last three plus years. Do you think somebody in media is going to ask those questions and more importantly, follow up when they lie? I watched interviews this weekend. There was some random acts of journalism.

There was some random acts of journalism. I saw some important questions, but then the lie came and then no follow-up. I want to see one journalist say, come on, what kind of bull crap is that? For three years, you said the border was secure. Do I need to play the video for you? So tell us. I saw my very good friend Neil Cavuto interviewing Gene Spurling, a lifer in D.C. I remember he was there in 2000, whatever, he's an economic guy. And Neil just simply asked, do you take any blame for the high prices we are paying?

Nope. And I felt for my good buddy, Neil. And he actually did what you're supposed to do as a journalist. You follow up with, huh? What? What a concept. Holding the powerful to account. And we're going to do more of this as we move forward. Why? Because this is one big gigantic election coming up,

because we have already been told by the Congressional Budget Office who's notoriously low that our 35 trillion is going to 56 trillion in 10 years. Let's just say 70. just so you know this year, they just changed this year from 1.5 trillion of debt, deficit, to 2 trillion. Where were they?

I don't even, I have a rusty abacus, and I've been telling you more than 2 trillion for months. So just letting you know. We segue, ladies and gentlemen. We're end of August. I'm being told September's bad in the market. We don't listen to that.

somebody said today we're going to have a melt up we don't listen to that i heard somebody say today i'm not making this up and viti is going to drop 25% in september we don't listen to that we heard somebody else say and vydia is going to have another big move to the upside we don't listen to that we think we're pretty decent at this and we have absolutely no clue no clue the reaction to Nvidia's earnings Wednesday after the close. The number of the expectation is strong, but it's a good deceleration because you can't keep growing 400% every quarter. So there's nothing wrong with a deceleration.

It's supposed to be estimates is supposed to be for about 246, 150% earnings growth, I think. 64 versus 27 27 54 10 140 I bet you they come in with 70 so it'll be a good number what's the question how are they going to guide

is the price too high what are they going to say about cap X every time they yap the cap X the equipment makers the semiconductors get going and gap up, but they're acting terribly right now as we head into those earnings. That's all going to be interesting. Up next, more in the markets. Today, I'm Gary. This is the one only

Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number

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APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu. On eBay, every find has a story, like if you're looking for a vintage band tea. Not just a tea, the band tea. From the last show your favorite band ever played. You wore it everywhere.

Then your BFF started glaring. it, which is cute until they unfriended you and took it with them, which was not so cute. Anyway, now you're on eBay. And there it is, same tea from the same tour. Still living in your memory, rent-free forever. See? The things you love have a way of finding their way back to you. But eBay isn't just forgetting whatever your XBFF stole back.

It's also for that rare championship foul ball you caught, then heroically gave to the kid next to you. And where else are you going to find your first car? The one you wish you'd never sold, but now, you finally get the chance to take back home. For good this time. Shop eBay for millions of fines, each with a story. eBay. Things people love. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece.

I opened my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say, and she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there, listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's, it's your happy place. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to.

Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programs. grabbing with Gary called bomb it doesn't get better than this and what's again to investors edge so I started with Nvidia and we don't know it right now as you know we bought it after the split 50 let's see uh blah but a bit of the yeah about 50 sold summit around 68 sold the rest in splits was a blah blah blah blah in the 70s, I got to make sure I got my numbers right.

Made 75% on the second one. Anyway, we did good. Bought it again after the gap on last earnings. I think we paid 104. We sold down at like, I think one, don't quote me on this. 128, 130 maybe. And then we bought it again and lost a little money.

And then the market crashed here recently, and we never bought back in. So we're going into Wednesday after the close and we're just letting you know. I have three or four stocks on my screen of 80 semiconductor stocks above the 50-day moving average. We have told you the strength

in the semi-CIRUS, monolithic power, MPWR, Texas Instruments has been better with their crappy numbers, but supposedly I'm getting a little low down things are better and invidia and that's it if you go through a list of all the semis broadcom broke back below the 50 day today and then you just walk through applied materials klac lamb research micron is crashed uh terradine uh taiwans and there are some that have just

let me give you one you never heard of wolf symbol wolf it's a semiconductor It's gone from 140 down to 13. No, not kidding. AMD was down 5 today to 150. It was 227 in March. And today, the semis weakest of everything, down 131 points today. Never got above the 50 day. Touched it two days ago.

We'll see. We'll see. I certainly have no good range breakouts in them. Most are in what I call downtrends differing levels. A bunch of them have rallied up arm holdings, went from 188 down to 97. By the way, amazing. 188 to 97 in three and a half four weeks has rallied up quick with the market. It closed at 12890 today.

still down from 188 up from 97 by the way on that day it closed at 110 but still in an overall downtrend so letting you know most of all we are really watching the semis closely the good news it really has not affected the rest of the market with the NASDAQ down 152 today in the NASDAQ 100 down 204 and the SOX down 131, the Dow is up 65 today. Because that's where money's flowing. So just let you know the money flows financials, though they may have hit a little spot today, housing related, though they pulled back a little bit today, some economically sensitive, but not Not every one of them.

Gold, though in the gold miners, I see a few breaking down and a few strong names. Staples, not the store, but consumer staples. Food, drugs, not all. Beverage, tobacco has been strong. Household products like a Procter & Gamble or a Clorox. That's where the money's flowing. Value types. And then there's meta.

I stopped out. We're up 40% this year on meta approximately. And we finally lost a little bit on a trade with the meta. It was the strongest name coming out of this drop. And while all the stuff off the lows did better, it didn't make it. Rolled over today. Very small loss. Small position.

Darn it. Because man, oh man, that looked. good. But welcome to the world I live in of the unknown. Anything else stick out today? Not really. Real estate stocks. There's new highs in a lot of low volume things in real estate. regional banks, a lot of four-letter, no-volume regional banks and S&Ls off of this move with the Fed. And then my next part is, be careful about this Fed thing. I don't care what they tell you. He doesn't do anything for the economy.

He doesn't create a job. He's going to go from five and a quarter down to five. On the low end, he's going to go from five and a half to five and a quarter on the high end. Maybe he goes a half. Let's say he goes to four and three quarters on the low end, five. on the high end. The 10-year yield is already at 3.8. That's doing the job already. What is the 10-year yield? Your mortgages. A crap load of loans. The ability of corporations to float paper at lower yields helping their profits out. Now, your money markets have remained high because that

money markets are kind of like the Fed. Your money market rates are going to come down. What else has come down also. Oh, the one year yield, the two year yield. They've also come down, which is normal, which is normal. So a lot of things going on, a lot of jello moving on the plate, and then the blowups. Simple PDD. China name. A big retail name. A company that does like 40 billion in revenue out of China, mobile e-commerce. you ready? Down 40 bucks today to 100. PDD holdings.

Holy crap! And as you know, we haven't touched China and we saved a lot of money just by not touching China. They got issues. And as I told you years ago, when I visited there, we were in a car

driving down the highways and byways. They built cities, not buildings, but cities. that were empty. No, no, no, no, cities that were just plain old empty. And I saw a video a few weeks back, they were starting to blow up some of the buildings. So God only knows the balance sheets of China. A lot of government base building, debt, we'll see. All I know is Dang is it weak. Up next, we'll continue. And news of the day. This is the one only investor's edge.

Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.

Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. On eBay, every find has a story, like if you're looking for a vintage band tea. Not just a tea. The band tea. From the last show your favorite band ever played. You wore it everywhere. Then, your BFF started glaring it, which is cute, until they unfriended you and took it with them. Which was not so cute.

Anyway, now you're on eBay. And there it is. Same tea from the same tour. Still living in your memory, rent-free forever. See? The things you love have a way of finding their way back to you. But eBay isn't just forgetting whatever your ex-BFF stole back. It's also for that rare championship foul ball you caught, then heroically gave to the kid next to you.

And where else are you going to find your first car? The one you wish you'd never sold, but now, you finally get the chance to take back home. For good this time. Shop eBay for millions of fines, each with a story. eBay. Things people love. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon.

She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there, listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's, it's your happy place. You're listening to

America is talking Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here With Gary Colbomb Comes highly recommended You're gonna feel better if you talk to him And welcome once again to Investors Edge

In other stuff Bitcoin Six Month trading range Sitting in the middle of the range We don't really follow Ethereum Too much But that's much lower than Bitcoin versus Bitcoin. We'll let you know if it breaks down, even more breaks out. Be careful.

I also want to mention what we think we really do great for you guys here. We save your ours. When people lose their minds, we save your behind. And it happens every now and then. and quite often in a very big way. Because we have this little motto. Because sometimes they're just big sore thumbs. I remember beyond me. Do you remember that? And how it was touted.

You remember that right. and I had no idea what would end up happening, what the stock would do. All I know is it hit a high of like $230 back in 19, 230 in 19. And I was I was just thinking to myself, how long is this plant-based food growth going to go for. Doesn't it have a shelf life? 230 down to six. And we didn't know it would go from 230 down to six.

We just know it 230. I think it had a $12 billion market cap. And you know what we did? No, really, we did. Small sampling. We went around. Some of these places started putting plant-based food onto their menu.

And we would just visit small sampling and pretty much to a person they were like snickering. Nobody's buying it. On the other end we did a little small sample this weekend.

Kava. I'd never been to Kava. But the stock was up huge on Friday with 35% sales growth made a lot more money than expect and I'm like, I got to see this. They, a

Kava here in Lake Mary, Florida, which by the way, Lake Mary Florida won the College World Series. Yay! Here in Lake Mary, Akava bought out a Zoe's kitchen, and it's not the easiest place to get into. You've got to

make, from the highway, you've got to make a left turn and come around and go into a little strip shopping center. It's a pain in the rear. It's such a pain in the rear, there used to be a Fridays that shut down. There was a Pizzeria Uno that shut down. There was a, there was another one, I forgot the name. Three different restaurants shut down. I went to the Kava on Saturday, about 1 p.m. Very busy. And I ordered something and it was very good.

It's kind of like Chipotle like. You get on. line, you go up there and you go through the things and you pick what you want and you go through. My only issue with it, it was really slow going through the line. They'll need to fix that. But these are the little things we try to do and I'm going to get a little, there's 309 Kavis now, at least that's what it says here. I'm going to see how many they can end up with. If they end up with 2,000 of them, stock's gone much higher.

I do not own the stock yet, but these are the things we do. So I'm bringing this up because recently, and I'm not making this up, in spite, in spite of the stock spiking before and dropping 90%, 80%, whatever it was, in spite of some weirdo touting it, in spite of it, they got GameStop able to go from 10 up to 6%. 65 bucks in four or five days where that roaring kitty doofus goes on and puts up a cartoon character and people start jumping all over each other. And then he made the mistake. He did a, you know, a video with himself. And he's a moron. And by the way, I'd say it to his face, it's 21.

And it's breaking down right here. And maybe it goes again for all I know. They already said their business is worsening. we hope you listened. We were mentioning it every day. What did we say it's going to go back to where it came from, as we always do? And again, we're not saying it's not going to happen again because the world's insane. Just no value. Don't pay $20 for a $1 bill. Next, the Trump stock. And again, I always have to do the disclaimer. Nothing political. We warned you.

We actually said on this show, the stock's not even worth a dollar valuation-wise, except you have his name. So you got to add that in what that means we don't know. But they ran the sucker up to $79 in March, dropped it to $22, ran it up to $56. And we're sitting there telling you, we said a dollar, but then we said, but you got to add his name. But single digits. And when this is nothing to do with Trump as a politician or running for president or president or whether win is going to lose. It has to do with there's 176 million shares outstanding.

It still has a $3.8 billion market cap at the levels it's at. And they pretty much don't have sales and they lose a lot of money. It's gone from 79 down to less than 22. Now, maybe they'll put something together with it and whatever, but there is nothing going on with the company. nothing at this juncture. So just letting you know, and I can talk about the Rivian at 170, we told you was worth 10. And these things don't happen often,

but sometimes you get one of these extreme crazies. Crais. And we're going to have more eventually. Do you know there was a China stock back in 22 that went from 12 up to 20? 500 in days, it's three bucks now. And frankly, I don't even know if you could have traded it. It doesn't trade a lot.

I don't even know if you could have sold 2,000 shares as it was going crazy. I gather you could. I don't know what would have happened. It was crazy. Just be careful. And you really sometimes just have to think, what's the logic? The electric vehicle stocks, big trouble. If Ford is losing hundreds of thousands of dollars each cars, what do you think the small ones are losing?

It's simple. Demand, it's just not there. You know what the demand is. Hybrid. I think that's going to be the name of the game going forward. And don't get me wrong. On my block is one of those big Tesla. What are those things?

The trucks. Weirdest looking suckers, but boom. One of my buddies has one of the SUV Tesla's loves it. It plays Christmas music at Christmas. So I'm not arguing against them. I'm just saying demand. The pain in the arsory of having to charge versus not charge. That was logical to us.

Complete logic. And you'll be able to see it. Kmart versus. Target versus Walmart, Kmart Garn. It's almost like they did it on purpose. Just look, feel as a consumer, and easy to see it in restaurants, retail stores, and the like. It's how it rolls. So just wanted to let you know a couple of more we warned you about have crashed.

And we'll keep watching. Up next. News of the day. This is the one only investors' edge. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.com.

EDU. On eBay, every find has a story. Like if you're looking for a vintage band tea. Not just a tea. The band tea. From the last show your favorite band ever played. You wore it everywhere. Then your BFF started glaring it, which is cute until they unfriended you and took it with them. Which was not so cute. Anyway, now you're on eBay. And there it is. Same tea from the same tour. still living in your memory, rent-free, forever. See? The things you love have a way of finding their way back to you. But eBay isn't just forgetting whatever your ex-BFF stole back. It's also for that rare championship foul ball you caught,

then heroically gave to the kid next to you. And where else are you going to find your first car? The one you wish you'd never sold, but now, you finally get the chance to take back home. For good this time. Shop eBay for millions of fines, each with a story. eBay, things people love.

One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low, Shh, listen. So we sat there, listening.

That was the first time I learned that, quiet can feel full. Hershey's. It's your happy place. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

In The Wester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. So, uh, as you know, I've been telling you about my parents, and boy, we've been receiving a lot of emails from all of you that are in the same position. We searched far and wide, up and down, and all around. We finally found somebody. We now have a living six out of seven days a week. It costs a hell of a lot of money, worth every penny.

She started today. My brother calls me up, and his exact words were, this is a godsend. because it turns out great experience with the elderly and elderly with whatever situation my parents have. And just so you know, up until four months ago, I took my mom to a Broadway show. She would cook for my father every night and lunch every day. Can't do it anymore. She had a stroke, the emergency surgery, and amazingly, that, They said nothing. No paralysis.

Has her speech. But as we days went past, on a scale of, let's say she was at a 70, as far as energy-wise, whatever, we're down for 50, maybe 40. No more cooking for my father and just hangs. 91. Father's going to be 93, October 20th. Absolute blessing. But at the same time, I feel them. When I'm there, I feel my father and his, my father was almost played Major League Baseball. Great athlete. Was in the Coast Guard. We used to play touch football. He was the quarterback down now, pump it go along in the streets of North Miami Beach, Florida.

169th Street in North Miami Beach. We moved to Florida, Concord Plaza. Then the embassy house. And I can feel his frustration of what he cannot do anymore, having to have a walker, needing help. So on one end, magnificent. On the other end, it's tough. and my brother's been the freaking hero

because he lives there. As you know, I'm there every week. I didn't go this weekend, though, because I had some... Doctor said not. I had the surgery I told you about. But I'll be up there for Labor Day. I had to cancel a wedding for Labor Day.

And I'll meet this young lady who's taken care of them and hopefully... In the news, well unfortunately I don't own this but Babe Ruth had what is known as a cold shot many years ago it was an historic game against the Cubs

in 1932 World Series and he was being heckled and he reportedly responded by pointing deep into center field and then he hit a home run well the jersey was found and saved and authenticated somebody bought it for 900,000 let me make sure what they paid

$940,000 in 2005 sold for $24.1 million. God almighty. $24.1 million, the largest ever. Out does, I think there was a Michael Jordan something or other, that it out did by a mile. Until 22, no piece had broken $10 million. But that year saw a mantle card and a jersey one worn by Michael Jordan blow past the threshold. They actually thought it could sell for $30 million. And by the way, there was mustard on the jersey, they say.

In the news, whoa. The Atlantic Ocean is cooling. It's baffling scientists. Did you hear that? I bet you the news isn't reporting that, are they? Because it does not fit the agenda. I bet you Al Gore is not coming out and saying, It's cooling.

In case you don't know, the Atlantic Ocean is on a cooling thing above right now. I don't know why. I don't care. But there's been a cooling of the waters in the Gulf as well as a large portion of Atlantic, and I'll tell you what's good. We're hurricane season. Cool the water, less powerful hurricanes. Let's just hope that's the case.

Just want to let you know. What was it 20 years ago, Al Gore said we had, We were doomed in 10 years. Up yours, Al. While he's worth a couple of hundred million dollars with, what? Created green energy companies, gets grants that he doesn't have to pay back, gets on his private jet to go on his yacht. Yay.

I saw Leo DiCaprio was on a big, like, 100-foot yacht this weekend. I look at the Daily Mail. He's another one that's preaching the climate. Leo, nothing personal. Up yours. Just tiresome. It just tiresome. And when they tell you got 10 years,

just remember, the Earth is 4.5 billion years old. Never forget that. They're full of crap. Big crap. Large crap. Cow crap. And it's all about money. It's all about your wallets.

And they're doing a great job. By. $350 billion of our tax dollars goes to a democratic hack for climate, and they have yet to give us a list on where that's gone. Though we do hear they spent $7 billion on charging stations, and there are eight. So you know what we think of these people? We believe in we the people. Not them. It's simple.

And we're tired of them. Tired of them telling us how smart they are and how good they are. and what they have to do with our money while they're running $35 trillion of debt, $2 trillion yearly deficits, who's the failure? Hey, that all said, I'm getting out of this room. You have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Get out of the room, that's 95 degrees.

Find your children, give them a hug. Find your parents, give them a hug. Very simple. They'll feel better, you'll feel better. Until tomorrow, same time. I think I'm off tomorrow TV. Peace out all. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.

To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive. An American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh or pursuing a lifelong passion.

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