Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - SEMIS/AI pummeled [03.30.2026]

Episode Date: March 30, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening, March 30th, Monday, 2006.

Hope you're having a good day. Hope you had a good weekend. Hope you are not a Duke fan. as they handed Connecticut the game. I did not give out picks on Friday, but I must tell you, I had going to the final four, Arizona, Michigan, Duke,

and not Illinois. I forgot who I had. So I had three out of four going into the final four, and we'll give you picks for the final four. I got to tell you that Michigan, Arizona should be the final game. I bet the only bet I made this weekend was Michigan and they just blew away the other team and that was that but anyway I feel you know when you see something that just stands out so the young man that through the ball pass to where Connecticut got the ball and the man was

able to shoot a three-pointer from like the logo and hit it was asked the questions and as a freshman in college and he was a man's man took it. I've seen professionals not take it like that. Love seeing that. I think the guy's going to be a great professional going forward. Go check out the interview if you can. All right, that's enough of the sports today. You know when we say serious talk, we get a little more serious today on you and everything. The market's the economy, your job, your industry, the war, tariffs, all that are the oil prices, and what happens next. But we're going to do all market today. We have to, because we'll explain. If you don't go this, get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at

Gary K.com. We'll post on our X feed. If he'll follow us on next, you should. Just put our name in. If you'd like to email us, just be nice. By the way, we'll post it on the YouTube channel, Biz TV and other podcast apps. So, what do we try and do here? We try and guide. We don't tell you to buy sell shorter cover, but we will say on this show, this is leading, this is lagging, this is topping, this is bottoming. This isn't a bull market. This isn't a bare market and we're very descriptive even though we don't show charts on this and we always try to explain to you there are a few lines that we use when it comes to markets one of them is the weight of the evidence and that comes from stan Weinstein we stole it from him great technician what

greatest of all time i think and what that simply means when we say to you on this show we'll imagine if there's only 100 stocks in a group, in the market, excuse me. And let's decide that we know what an uptrend looks like. And those hundred stocks are in the definable uptrend. And they are all even. They're all 1% of the index. Well, you have an up trend in the index. Well, what happens if 25 of them stop going

up and start going down. Well, the index is getting a little headwinds. And of course, you want to avoid those 25 and stick with the 75. And again, you are assuming we know what an uptrend and a downtrend is. And by the way, things that go from uptrend to downtrend, they top out first and then they start heading down. But for the example, today we're saying they're going into a downtrend. And what if the 25 continue down and then 25 more go from uptrend to downtrend. And we'll define downtrend is stair stepping down, meaning instead of going up two down one, they're going down two, up one.

Well, the indices will probably be flat. 50 up, 50 down, they're all even, Stephen. And let's say they're all moving in sync up or down. But what happens if 25 more? heading the downtrend. And what happens if they all? You now have a definable downtrend in that index,

noting that they are all the same as far as influence versus what we have in the NASDAQ 100 right now where I think eight stocks are like 65% of the index. So we want you to imagine that. But the market is different.

We talk to you about 200 sectors and subsectors. countries, commodities. And I can promise you, I don't think I've ever seen 100% in bull markets and 100% of them in bear markets. Right now, we have a bunch of bare markets,

not in oil, not in oil at all. I can tell you that Johnson and Johnson and Merck are not in bear markets, but I can tell you Eli Lilly and AbVee and other drug companies are. So our job is to decipher, but really decipher when it's a big group, an important group, and the like. And it's doubly important to decipher when things go awry. And why would that be?

Well, because as we have explained to you, Wall Street is always bullish. You do know that, right? they're always bullish. You do know that by recommendations will only be changed after something dropped 75% for the most part. You know that, right? So we have a couple of more very important areas to add to the nausea. Two of the ports in the storm get added to the nausea, but this did not come out of nowhere. because one of those big areas we told you

Topton broke the 50 day a while back days ago and we also noted the strongest stock in that group reported gangbuster earnings that was still selling off and broke that all important 50 day moving average easily easily and that would be the semiconductors so

the semiconductors have performed admirably. The equipment guys, applied materials, ASML, KLA, Lamb Research, Micron, as DRAM prices, went vertical, Taiwan Semiconductor, persistently, pretty good. All pullbacks, even some vicious pullbacks, were bought up and ramped. But in the last few weeks, little complexion change in that price. has mostly lived below that all-important 50-day moving average, which is basically a line of good versus potentially not so good. And then Thursday broke down off of living below the 50-day

moving average. Friday continued and today slammed. Slammed. They took out the semiconductors and kicked them in a very bad spot and all day slammed. They were worse, but they only came off a little bit of the low because the Dow went from down 100 to up 50 in the last 20 minutes. But the socks today was down 315 juicy points. deeper below the top and deeper below that ever-important 50-day moving average. I have 75 semiconductor stocks sitting on my screen. Not one was green today, and most all now have broken support and or moving averages with a good taste of volume.

But it's not just that because last week we told you, Envidia broke vital support at 170. The head honcho, top dog big cheese, that has earnings acceleration of 33, 54, 60, and 82 sells off. A CEO that is out every day touting his company sells off? Up next. We'll keep going. We've got lots to say today. This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888-4-22-559. That's 888-4-22. 5559. That's 888. 422. 52559. Investment advisory services offered through Colt Bomb Capital Management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, Envidia. massive acceleration of earnings is trading where it did last July and is off the highs of 212 at 165.35, 47 is down about 22, 23% from highs, which by the way is not the biggest of deals,

except it was underperforming while the semiconductors were going north. and as soon as a semi top, it breaks that vital support. Not good news. Broadcom, the other big one, big top. AMD, another big one, never got going. And as I go through my screens, the all-important lamb research broke the 50-day moving average three days ago, dropped another 5% today. KLAC dropped another 4% today. ASML dropped another 4% today. Amat dropped another 4 and they're

all living below now. Now I always get the question. So they just broke the 50 day moving average. What if they have a good couple of days coming up? Well, I'm all for it. But we don't predict that. We deal in real time. And all we can tell you now, the way, weight of the evidence on the semiconductors. They worsened badly today in a market that had the Dow up 400 at one time. So I'd be wary of the semiconductors. I haven't been able to say that. As you know, when Micron breaks the 50, it's done.

It broke the 50 day at 400. It's $320.40 as I speak. down 35 bucks today, or almost 10%. And I've always told you that Micron is most leverage to pricing since pricing went vertical looks like gravity took over. Now, what could be the big issue with all this? Well, you know our line, over-owned, over-loved, and over-leveraged. What does that mean?

Well, the big institutions, they have portfolio manager, meetings every day and they're going over position and position sizing. And when things are going well, terrific, great, terrific, great. And we own a crap load of this and it's working very well. Yay, yay, yay. And then things go awry. And what do we mean by awry? Well, these institutions see these moving averages. And they know when something caves in, that means institutions are no longer defending those areas so they have to act in kind so what do these portfolio managers do in these meetings how many shares do we have and guess what they do sell some more and it ends up feeding on itself so i have no idea what tomorrow brings maybe they bounce i don't know today was about as

bad a day for the semiconductors as i have seen a long time terradine a leader breaks the 50 day. My screen, I went through it in our webcast a little while ago of the 75 semiconductor stocks. Most all have broken support and or moving averages. Recently, there were a few that looked like they were about to break out. They tucked their heads in like frightened turtles. So that's the semiconductors. But what else? There has been a grouping of the artificial intelligence stocks. And I've used the sector words optical memory, data, storage, energy, building slash construction of the data centers. And in the recent months, and it's been months, some of them have topped out badly. But that's okay because not everybody can be a winner.

but some of the companies that are involved in building construction, air conditioning, heating products that are supposed to do the job for, these data centers that are being built everywhere, built everywhere, the power generation stuff. Well, recently, they started doing something that you can excuse it, but having your file manager. After a good move higher, they started to trade what we call wide and loose. And what do we mean by that? And we described this for you already. It's where a stock goes from, let's say 300 to 500 over. the last nine months. A great move. But then it goes from 500 to 420, but up to 480 and down to 430. Up to 500, down to 410. Wide and loose. Often, widen loose after move up is a sign that the sellers are getting more.

of the upper hand and you better start watching them a lot closer. They beat the crap out of the AI data center storage memory building construction and all that stuff today. The initials, the symbols of some of these names that I've been harping on were blasted today. but they've had days like this before and they resolved themselves better for the time being. I'm not so sure they're going to resolve themselves better for the time being after today. Today felt like something of more import. So we are now very wary even on the strongest of names. and remember some of these have magnificent earnings and sales

but when a group changes its complexion doesn't really matter they're going to have to go through their motions of dropping pulling back or whatever till they decide not to but today was an eye-opener something like a coherent breaks the 50 day badly today and drops 10%. FN, that's a symbol. Down 11% breaks the 50 day. How about L-I-T-E? I've mentioned a few times.

Down almost 50 bucks today, 7%. By the way, all these at a little extra volume. Sand disk, down 44 today or 7%. Breaks the 50 day. VRT veritive that just got upgraded and broke out to new highs on Thursday down 7%. We'll do more on this up next. And some other stuff.

This is the one only Investors Edge. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Carl.

So we're highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to it. So, we just want to let you know a very suspect day for artificial intelligence land. The strongest name in the building construction has been fixed. Comfort system. Down $94 today, almost 7%. Oh, and it broke the 50-day moving average. Remember, the weight of the evidence. How about something like Sterling infrastructure? Same thing. Down 38 bucks today or 9%.

Oh, breaks the 50 day. Oh, 50% more volume than normal. Just letting you know. And there are others. But I think I've made my point. I have no idea what happens tomorrow. But boy, boy, for whatever reason. Now, last year there was Deepseek.

They crumbled. They washed it off. We've had other times washed it off. But we also have to add the Oracle that's gone from 345 to 138. We have to add Microsoft 550 to 358. We have to add Nvidia breaking those support levels. We have to add. and weight of the evidence says something is up.

And you know how we are. It is an absolute void on anything that breaks the 50 day, especially if it stays there. And now, now the semiconductors are living below and worsen, and a bunch of the AIs break below today and worsen. And I haven't even mentioned some of the names that broke below a few weeks ago. and worse than today.

One of everybody's favorites was symbol B.E. Bloom Energy, another energy. It broke the 50 days, six days ago, 150. Close it 119 today, down 10% on the day. It broke it days ago. So you're on notice. We're not telling you to buy, sell, shorter cover. We'll let you know things worse than those two big spaces today.

Now, interesting enough, the NASDAQ was only down 153, while the Sox was down 315. How can that be? Well, we're letting you know you had bounces in some of the other things. Meta, which was destroyed in the last few days, was up 10. Microsoft bounced today. CRM bounce 5 today. Adobe was up 5. Costco was up 12.

That's a top 10 name. and as I look to my left, believe it or not, the lesser tech today bounced. But when I look at the bounces, it looks like a fly on an elephant's butt. No down trends were changed. So we're just letting you know two very important areas, which doesn't leave a lot. Doesn't leave a lot. Oils, but oils took it on the chin today. they're very extended.

Defense stocks, you ready for this one? We think defense stocks have topped in the midst of war. Does that mean we're going to get out of the war? Well, we're 100% sure we will eventually get the hell out of this Iran thing. And I think we're pretty sure sooner rather than later, for obvious reasons. There's a midterm election, and their poll numbers are worse than Jock Etch and Root Canal. And that's the big question. Because you know what I hear from everybody?

And I can't blame them for saying it. When the war ends, the market's going to get going again. When the war ends, it should relieve oil prices, which should relieve interest rates. and the market will get going again. But there's only one problem with that. The market was doing nothing before the war started. It was range bound for months, with a lot of areas topped. You know the areas we told you about.

The private credit equity crap. Stocks were bombed. Other financials, housing. and housing related, how about the managed care like United Health? So for us, okay, I think that should be a one plus one equals two. Market does better.

I'm just not sure we're going to be off to the races. Also, before the war, inflation was picking up. The GDP last quarter was 0.7%, though we're told, the quarter we're in right now should be better. At least we're told that. The job market stinks. 87,000, I believe it was, lost last month, and six out of the last 12 months, jobs have been lost in this golden age.

Dude's funny. Anyway, so there was some issues beforehand. But I'm open to any and all outcome. Just remember last April. liberation day stocks dropped another 10% after already being weak and they had no choice

they were forced to change their mind and the Dow went up 2,000 points on that Monday quickly when it was leaked but they didn't couldn't want to deal with a leak so they waited to win today boom

2,500 points that was pretty much the low after a little backing and filling maybe we get the same I'm open to that. All I can tell you is of this second, boy, for the stuff that had been leading, it sucked today. Really bad day. Tomorrow is another day. But if the market had a mouth, it would have been yelling about these areas.

What else today? Well, it was much better early. The Dow was up 400. And I can tell you, at 3.30, it was down 100. finished up 49. So still not good because when you're up 400, you want to keep it. And the big indices, all of them are below the 200-day moving average still. And as we have told you, nothing good happens below that.

Just letting you know. And I must add also the Russell 2000 finished below the 200-day moving average today. Not good. And the mid-cap 400. Let's see how that finished. A little bit below the 200 day. Remember, this is the longer-term moving average. I say a very important spot is the 50.

You damn straight it is. But the 200-day, that puts you in hell. Now, you can break below and get back above. That's fine. But we don't move farther than our headlights go. And we believe in real time. So rough day. Not a good finish.

the fun good semiconductors KLAC down 60 ASMLL down 48 AMAT lower priced down 14 Lamb Research down 11 Terradine down 23 I can go on but you get the point with the Dow up 49 the good news is interest rates were down almost a stick today interesting enough though

oil prices were up another $5 even with the president and his minions all day talking good news seriously oil was up five bucks today while the president's out saying

oh they're ready to cut a deal they're cutting a deal they're cutting a deal they're cutting a deal we're coming out of this we're going to be over sooner right I would have thought oil will be down five So that's something we have to watch closely and unfortunately have to deal with on a daily basis. That one has me scratching my head.

And you get the point. Bitcoin bounced a little bit, but in a bare market and actually another bare flag. The Solas were trying to do better. They got squashed. Chinese stocks, really bad shape. Foreign markets, much worse now. The South Korea,

market was acting great, that's broke the 50 day. I got a lot of that going on. Up next. Whatever else is inside this head. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for?

One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I guess Jay Powell, The head of the Fed was in some confab answering questions. I want to throw up. As you know, I have complimented him for the last year. Ignoring the president because the president doesn't have a clue on economics, not a clue.

That if inflation's picking up and if interest rates on the long end are going higher, you don't lower the Fed funds rate. You'll cause more inflation. The president doesn't have a clue. So I give J. Powell credit for the last year, not listening to that crap. But as you know, I ripped him to shreds on his The Printing of Money that caused the 9% inflation. And not until it got bad, oops, I better do something about it. He was out today and talking.

And I had to throw up. Because he said that printing of money did not cause any problems. Did not cause any problems. I couldn't believe it. Staring him right in the face. He said research shows that purchasing long-term assets that's buying up bonds with printed money helps reduce interest rates and boost the economy. Yeah, he's right.

And destroyed everything and distorted. Do you see the problem with housing now? That's J. Powellitis. J. Powellitis. You print a $9 trillion. You rigged the bond market. You take the 10 year down to a half percent. Everybody gets under 3% mortgages.

Who the hell wants to sell? So there's no inventory. That means prices are going to skyrocket. Makes it unaffordable. Once you get the unaffordable, nobody wants to buy anymore. You end up with a ton of inventory and then prices get slammed. And that's where we are right now, all emanating from this dalt that said today, he was complimenting himself. I'm going to throw up. And now Trump wants to put in a guy,

Trump might as well have his hand, two hands behind his shoulder, just pulling the strings. Because all we hear from the guy are, lower rates, lower rates, lower rates, lower rates, let's lower rates, lower rates, let's lower rates into a higher oil price economy. Unbelievable. We're so screwed. Oh, and by the way, with $39 trillion of debt. It has risen $2.6 trillion in the last year under Trump. The U.S. federal budget deficit is a percentage GDP. Is now 8.3% in the 2010s it was 4.8.

In the 2000s, it was 2.3. They hate us. They hate us. And I'm so sick of all of them. Aren't you? I'm hearing from a lot of you all pissed off. And the markets are feeling it. Gary Woodland, he won the Texas Children's Houston Open yesterday.

Extraordinary. Life-threatening health challenges, brain surgery. And then to be able to compete at the highest level and gets PTSD to where he doesn't want to be out. but his business is being out on a golf course with a lot of people watching, not only there but on TV. How do you do it? And he came out a couple of weeks ago on TV and gave hope to every person out there that may be afflicted with this, that I know nothing about. And he goes on and wins a professional golf tournament. Unfekin-believable.

This is a triumph comeback of the human spirit, of resilience, determination. I loved it. He started crying when interviewed. I cried with him. If you have a chance, read this story and go watch the interview. I love these stories. They're inspirational. It makes you think about how good you have it when you are not afflicted with health problems or mental health problems. or anything like that, just things to think about. You take a couple of steps back and think about it.

This man moved me, and if I ever meet him, I am buying him dinner and shaking his hand, if he let me bought him dinner. I did want to bring that up, and that's a little of today. Miserable day for leading areas and leading names. I'm not sure what's going to come of it. There was rotation today, but the rotation wasn't the things that are already in their own bearish trends.

The oils were almost about it for bullish trends. They came in today. They're just very extended. And I'll look them over tonight. Palo Alto Network's CEO just bought $10 million of stock at around 147 a couple of days ago, was up seven bucks today on that news. but a warning and a word to the wise. We've mentioned about seven or eight big insider buying by CEOs and directors in the last few months.

They're all underwater with some underwater in a big way. Why? Timing is everything. You all have a great evening. Drive carefully when you get home. Do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family and hug your children. They will feel better.

You'll feel better. I promise. Check out this Gary Woodland story. Until tomorrow, have a great night, everybody. Bye, bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com.