Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - SEPTEMBER YIKES [09.03.2024]

Episode Date: September 3, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at cvs.com or just come by store we can't wait to meet you store hours vary by location investors edge with gary coltbaum straight talk about you and your money now from the biz talk studios here is gary cult bomb and welcome once again to investors edge i'm gary colpom your host day thanks of being with us today

glad you here ladies and gentlemen happy that you are listening we're in september it's uh september uh i don't even know oh third two thousand and twenty I want to thank Adam Sarkhan for doing the show on Friday. I was flying up to New York to see my parents, and you know the story there. I don't need to... The best way I can explain it, one's going on 93, the other one's 91, and potluck. That's the best way I can put it. My mom had a stroke.

I don't know, about six, seven weeks ago when that really took her down. and had some trouble and we're doing everything. Got to live in finally. We're learning so many things from you. We have mentioned this on air and I can't begin to tell you the hundreds of emails of your experiences. And it sounds just like the same experience I'm going through and my brother and my parents, of course, going through. And you just put your best foot forward. and you just be there.

And you just be there. All right. That said. And we thank you for everybody helping out. This is serious talk on everything that affects you. The first thing we do is markets. Though some would say lately the first thing we do is the election, but rightfully so. but today the first thing we do is the markets and when we say serious talk oh we mean it and we think our best shows

have to do with when we tell you hey don't buy that game stop up here that guy roaring kid he's a jackass hey the trump stock valuation the stock should be a dollar and we go frankly we didn't get much pushback on that from trumpians because we would always say this is not political we're doing a show on you and your money and the trump stock hit another load today at 18 bucks down from 79 we meant it when we do a theme show about beyond meat and talk logically that it's a fad and there's no way it's going to be this big end all be all. Why? People like this steak and burgers. When we tell you on this show, we're getting the feel. And it didn't happen in a day, but we went through the motions with you

that the electric vehicle business was heading south in a big way. That's our best shows, the ability to convey to you and protect. your capital when the noise is loud when all heck is breaking loose in 2021 as every growth stock started breaking down all the favorites we were telling you we don't know what this is going to turn into but we do know if we go into a bare market the average growth stock will drop past leader 70%. How do we know? It's time tested. We think these are our best shows.

And we say to you on this show also when it comes to the market, and we mean this. Our goal is never ever to be in a bare market. We lose money, but we buy specifically, and we sell doubly specifically. will never be in a bare market. And you just have to assume we know what a bear market looks like, acts like, how it downtrend, how it goes through the motions.

When we do our webcast for our peeps, we just walk them through. There's a reason why we have been saying on this show avoid oils. Except for a few names that stick out like pipelines, avoid oils. There's a reason why we've been on avoid casinos. I can't begin to tell you how long Las Vegas Sands been on a void. Throw in winds resorts. How about China? And on and on. So I just want to start off with NVIDIA. We try to be very careful with our words here because we know,

and we tell this the people that want to come with us. We just want to let you know if we buy on Monday and change our mind on Tuesday, are you good with that? And we can tell if they are or not, because we believe the markets are like Gumby. They're very flexible. They can change on a dime, though most often there's a process. but as the process plays out, we're pretty good at getting that feel. So we just want to start with Nvidia

because it is the most talked about stock in the market, taking over for Apple. Nvidia, and this is not an indictment, we're not making fun of it, we're just doing a little radio. the end-all be-all, the stock you have to own forever. Though we know better, there's a rare few you've been able to own forever. They also told you to own Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, forever. So we know better that it's okay to hold long term.

just make sure what you are holding is working long term. That shouldn't be difficult to think about. So, NVIDIA, why do we want to start with it? It's because we really do believe every now and then there's that one stock, sometimes two stocks, that are what we call, And they say influencers. I know there's influencers in social media and stuff like that. We believe that a lot of the semiconductor move was driven by it.

We've complained on this show about other semiconductor stocks going up even though their numbers were terrible because of the what the possibility is from. NVIDIA, we also have told you, and we don't do it very often, but we were really strong on it, about the breakout in NVIDIA in January and the gap on earnings in May. But recently, NVIDIA topped out. We had said to you, we believe it topped out, which doesn't have to be the end of the world at all. But we also know that stocks that could get in trouble could drop a lot are very often the ones that had the biggest moves. So when Nvidia has been trading very wide, very loose because the market got trashed and it dropped from 136 to 90 and then close that day at 100, just rallied up to 130 in a matter of 9, 10 days. but earnings were ready to come out on earnings it did something we weren't thrilled with

and we have said to you all long we don't own it now on Thursday it broke the 50-day moving average and in case you don't know what that is that is the very important area of the market and we explain up next on this the one only investors edge hi I'm Gary Kalbaum hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge we're not just handsome radio people we manage investors money for a living specializing in fee-based discretionary money management no big commissions just a fee on the assets that's managed we also provide a full range of personalized services including

retirement planning fixed income and educational needs all to assist you in achieving your financial goals understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-2-5-9. That's 888-4-22-55-9. investment advisory services offered through call bomb capital management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola,

who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like, chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach egg every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut,

you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it.

With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.apus.edu. Cash flow crunch? On-deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it.

Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat with flexible draws, transparent pricing and control over repayment. Get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. On Deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. So, Invidia broke below the 50-day, and basically all the 50-day moving averages. You add up the last 50 days closes. You divide by 50, and you get a smooth outline when you chart the stock on whether it's

an up-trend or downtrend. And it broke it, which is not great news, but doesn't have to be the end-all-be-all. Doesn't have to be the worst thing possible. We came into today, and what we have had recently, and we believe is a very split market. When I do my scans, we've noticed a few things. Number one, the most defensive areas have better relative strength than most other things. Not all, but most. And what do we mean by defensive? Well, if the economy craps out, what are the things everybody still needs? Not necessarily. wants, but needs. I got a few. If you have a baby, you need diapers, you go to the bathroom, you need toilet paper. If you want to eat, you probably want to look at General Mills or Campbell soup or Mondalese or Post. If you like sodas, Pepsi or Coke. If you drink beer and alcohol,

which for some reason people need, you can deal with things like, let's see, Constellation Brands, STZ is the symbol there. What else? Well, you need to clean, right? You don't want to live in a pigsty, right? So you've got to get things like Procter & Gamble?

How about Church and Dwight? I believe that's baking soap. and laundry detergent. How about toothpaste and toothbrushes? Colgate palm olive. These are the areas that if the economy craps out, they benefit because you're still going there. What gets hurt? To a certain extent, luxury goods, except you have a big separation between the middle class and the rich right now. Families, maybe instead of seven days at Disney, they're going to go for four. These are wants, not needs. What else if the economy's crapping out?

Well, the word demand comes to mind. If there is less demand, what goes down? Commodities. Commodity prices are based on demand. You ever see trading places? At the end, the orange juice futures. well when there wasn't a big I think it was this way

a big storm or whatever and the crop was big enough and there's plenty there price comes down well if demand is going to drop what's going to drop oils oil prices

copper to build aluminum uranium things like that what else well there's probably an issue with economically sensitive stuff, which includes semiconductors. And if you don't think semiconductors are economically sensitive and cyclical, I got some,

you know, you get my point. Now, normally, markets go through this process and we listen. We think the markets have a voice. And all I can tell you today, and this has been going on a little bit. bit, but not as bad. They crumbled the semiconductors, led by NVIDIA down 12 to 107, furthering its corrective work. Other semiconductors, I won't use the term blowed up, but they were smoked today. I can tell you that KLAC was down 78 bucks to 741. I can tell you, Lamb Research was down $55 to $765, I can tell you, well, you get my point, because

NVIDIA was down today $12, which was before the split, $120. Now, of course, if NVIDIA is leading down, what does that mean? Because it has been the end-all-be-all, the talk of artificial intelligence. And we pose the question to you, what if, there's been over ordering. And as we have stated to you, and we kind of have a feel for the semiconductor industry, we're not geniuses, but we've studied it. And quite often through the decades, there was so much hype, so much touting,

that all these semiconductors overordered. They bought more because they were worried about shortages. But if it gets to the point, think about this, that they have too many and the economy tips over, it leads to what is known as semiconductor glut, which will go directly back to NVIDIA. I don't care what they say about artificial intelligence. So we're just letting you know today, they smack the heck out of NVIDIA. they smacked the heck out of semiconductors but what interested me was it wasn't just that they smacked the heck out of

Microsoft they smacked the heck out of it Google which I guess you can call it AI booking holdings down 95 bucks even Apple which had been pretty strong in nothing but Good talk about it. Down six bucks today. But it wasn't just that also. Oh, by the way, the semiconductor indexed, the socks, was down 400 points today at the close.

400. And the interesting part about the seminar is I want you to listen carefully. As we rallied up, remember the V shape we talked about? The semis have been the weakest of the areas, the big areas. the big areas, while financials were better. And now the semis lead down today. We own no semis. We don't own NVIDIA.

We're just letting you know, we're not telling you what to do, we're letting you know they're in trouble. And as I scan the masses of the semis, yuck. And as we've stated to you, there was only a few that were strong, The rest were, guess what? Up next, the rest of the market. I'm Gary. This is the one only investors at.

Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomachache every time that I eat.

And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication.

And then at that point, we can put it. probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Cash flow crunch. On-Dex small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds

up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com.

Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or Celtic Bank. OnDec does not lend in North Dakota, all loans an amount subject to lender approval. They're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to. So, hello, what's up? When we look at markets going down or up, but more going down, we look at how much territory and what type of tone.

The semis gave up a lot of territory today, and the tone. and the tone was ick. One of my words, I-C-K. But what also interested me today, and we're not throwing out the reach here, oh, this means this or that, we're just reporting to you. Goldman Sachs down $23 today?

That's been one of the better financials. In the Dow, Caterpillar, down 16 today? In the Dow? I'd like to say Boeing is down 13, but they've been dead money anyhow. A lot of territory today on a lot of things. Recently, our favorite setups to possibly break to the upside were in this building slaps. construction area that weren't moving higher but they were really hanging let me give you some names some you may have not heard of wait to you hear what they

did today well first off you may have heard of United Rentals and they rent equipment economically sensitive down almost $40 today over 5% W.W Granger Gw WW. What do they do? Lighting and plumbing and tools down $25 today. Remember what I said about territory and tone? GE down 10. Maybe I haven't heard of symbol LII, which is Lennox International. Yeah, you've heard of the Lennox. Down 28 today. Now there was a construction number, which was not good. but under the guise of our line, it's not the news, it's how things react to the news. The market was screaming today.

We got some economic crap coming up. And I know it's only one day, but that was a hell of a lot of territory. I'm not done. Decker's, deckers, uggboots, down 60 today. Now, these are high price, but it was still 6.5%. You may have not heard of Arista Network, symbol A-N-E-T. It's down $27 today. 7%.

Netflix, which had been acting pretty darn well and been getting nothing but positive comments from Wall Street, down 26 today, tone, and how much territory? And I'm just letting you know, there was a lot of territory to the downside today with a lot of crappy tone. And some of the names I have just mentioned have been some of the stronger names in the market. Forget about the weaker names. I can tell you a weaker name like synopsis, computer design, down 40 today. 7.6%. So I don't know. I heard and I hear September's not supposed to be good and don't worry. It'll be a bad September and October will be great.

We don't work that way. I don't know what's going to happen in October. I know what happened today. We still came in today with a lot of cash, but anything we own, except one. There was one name that opened up today, and we said, get us the hell out and worked out fine.

But we had some ETFs that we gave back. The good news is ETS will not come close to what a stock will do in that ETF. The Dow was down 626 today. It's 700 before a little bounce at the end. S&P 120. The NASDAQ 577 and the NASDAQ 100, 615? The semiconductor's 400? The Russell 2000.

I heard last week we had. had to own the small caps now. They're starting up again. They were down 3% today. The midcaps almost 3%. I've already done a big scan. I know one thing sticking out like a sore thumb. The semiconductors lagged up and now led down. Being the semiconductors are very economically sensitive and has been the leading group in the market, that for me is a wake-up call. Housing stocks have been acting well because of lower rates. Rates have been coming down and they still smoke the housing stocks today. I stopped out of that today.

Small. We never lose big. So we're just letting you know, whoa. commodity stocks bludgeoned steel, copper aluminum, uranium we said that earlier

steel is near nearing the yearly lows I heard oh tariff this and tariff that or the Justice Department not letting this or letting that it's not the news it's how things react to the news and man

the market gagged today led by NVIDIA and it is still overowned, overloved, over leveraged, and we'll see how it plays out. The AI plays got smoked also today and I did a lot of crossing out of names except for Procter & Gamble, Colgate, Church and Dwight, Coca-Cola, United health, these HMO managed care stocks have become somewhat defensive medical. Not their drug stocks are defensive, but there's a bunch of drug stocks that act like crap. Tobacco stocks.

I thought everybody hated nicotine. Tobacco stocks on the move. And that's where my ears are open, the market's speaking up, at least for right now. economy and I got news for you. Jay Powell can lower rates all he wants. If the economy goes into some sort of deep ick, that's valuations and that's profits. We'll see. We're just reporting the news to you. A pretty miserable day to day heading into September. Looks like they were right. they did say there have been a few that said

September's a bad month we knew coming in don't own the semis don't own oils the other areas we told you don't own that but man oh man the S&P

was acting good back up at the tips housing stocks acting good they took out a little machete today and went tomorrow's another day and as always we tell you we have absolutely

no freaking clue what happens tomorrow. And there you happen. Those are the numbers. Of notes, before we get into, because I wasn't here Friday, that interview as well as a couple other things going on out of DC. We were asked about this. So we're just mentioning the Buffett indicator. That guy Warren Buffett. He's pretty smart, right? He has this indicator total U.S. market value versus slash GDP. It's supposedly one of these ballpark measures of how expensive stocks

are at any one time. It's being said that it's now sitting at 200%. If the ratio approaches 200% as it did in 99, you are playing with fire, and that's per Warren Buffett. And as you know, Warren Buffett's sitting on 300 billion

of cash, putting his money where his mouth is. We're watching that. Up next. What else we got for you? This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions

you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating. chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach ache every day.

Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu. Cash flow crunch?

On-deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat with flexible draws, transparent pricing and control over repayment. Get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. OnDak does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. With Gary Kulp. Okay.

Hey yo. We weren't here Friday. We were flying. Thursday was the interview on CNN. Let me just be clear and concise about my thoughts. It sucked. Let me explain. CNN wasn't interviewing Kamala Harris, who refused to do any other interviews and still has not. The country was interviewing Kamala Harris. via CNN. It was incumbent of this young lady Dana Bash to represent us in that interview. And it was crap. Sure, she did the, you said in the past, no fracking, but now you say you can frack. What changed? Hey, that's real tough.

That's real tough. tough. And what do you say about changing your stance? Oh, that's real tough. We sent an email to them that we'd give $100,000 to the favorite charity if they let me interview and we have not heard back. These should have been the questions representing you, the people that were not asked. and let me be clear, not asked on purpose. Were you part of trying to get Joe Biden out? Will you show us your phone records between you and Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Obama, and even George Clooney? Did you speak to any of them about taking Joe Biden out?

That wasn't asked. What else wasn't asked? Between yourself, Joe Biden and Mayorkas, the head of Homeland Security, security for three years said the border was secure. And during that time, 10 million people came across. Please answer for that. And she would have come out and said, well, we tried to have a bill here and Donald Trump wouldn't want to go for it. No, we're talking about the three years. Right after you came in, Majorcas said we are proud that we rolled back all of Trump's immigration policies. and 10 million people are through

and Majorcas has also stated that he has no clue where some of these people are and whether they are terrorists. You were part of that. Why should people trust you on the border? That was not asked. You keep saying, the administration keeps saying

that you lowered child poverty in half. How does a tax credit take any child out of poverty? well it puts them above the poverty line can you show us one child that came out of poverty because of an extra check that wasn't asked the president keeps saying he lowered deficits and the debt but you are running record deficits of two trillion dollars this year he is also stated and you have also stated that you are cutting debt by three trillion over the next 10 years, but the fact is it's 20 trillion minus your supposed

$3 trillion. How do you square with that? That wasn't asked. Part of your spending package was $350 billion to John Podesta, a lifelong Democrat for climate, yet John to Pedesta has had nothing to do with the atmospheric climate. Can you give us a list of what? where that $350 billion has gone, and whether it went to donors,

friends, or relatives, who opened up companies, startup companies for climate in the last two years, was not asked. Joe Biden said when inflation came in, when he came into the office, inflation was 9%. But it was actually 1.5% when it came in.

It soared months later. isn't that a lie? Was not asked. You and the administration said inflation was not bad. Then it changed the transitory while it soared. What did you get wrong? That was not asked. You keep saying Trump tax cuts exploded the deficits.

But here are the numbers on this poster board. Revenue soared at the same time. The deficits are. coming from a gargantuan increase in spending of the government. And if you just kept spending where it was three years ago, we would have no deficits. What do you say about that? Nope. Wasn't asked.

Just how much government should spend each year was not asked. Federal spending was $4.4 trillion the year before COVID. And now spending is higher than even the COVID years. What do you say about that? was not asked. You mentioned your values haven't changed. How is it possible to say that when your stances are things are polar opposites from just a few years ago? Isn't that out of election convenience?

That wasn't asked. I would say it to her face and I'd be nice. Dana Bash, you're a biased journalist. we saw your interview with J.D. Vance, where you were much more with tone and inflection, and follow-ups. There were no follow-up questions of blatant lies that even fact-checkers have come out of the multiple lies during that interview. But you sat there. Lastly, Vice President Harris, we are now seeing interviews.

videos of Venezuelan gangs walking around with AR-15s in apartment buildings and then hacksawing off the doorknobs, threatening people and shaking them down. Why haven't you with the president spoke up about this and why haven't you sent in the National Guard to eradicate these people? There you have it. Tomorrow I'm on Fox Business Network 1 p.m. tomorrow. Too bad I didn't do the interview. check me out tomorrow same time tomorrow hopefully the market's better tomorrow because it's sucked today have a great evening drive carefully when you get home do like we do quite simple make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you will feel better i

promise stay well be well serenity now i'll have an air conditioner on thursday good night all this has been investors edge with gary coltbaum on biz talk to listen to past episodes or to get in contact with gary go to gary k dot com that's gary k dot com that's gary k dot com Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU.APUS.edu.

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