Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Shot across the bow [02.20.2024]

Episode Date: February 20, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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while supplies last, loyalty program subject to terms and conditions. Visit the prodesk or Lose.com slash terms for more details. Subject to change. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's Tuesday. Get it right. We just had a three-day weekend. It's February 20th, 2004. And as always, we're here to talk to you about

the sheer insanity of the markets, the economy, and jobs and unemployment, and taxes, and deficits, spending, and scams, corruption, elections, you name it, we'll cover it without agenda, ulterior motive, or bias. Why? Because when we talk about them, we can't stand any of them. Again, hope you had a great three-day weekend. Ladies and gentlemen, we're going to start right with the markets, which by the way, we'll be closing in about 14 minutes. We usually pre-taped right at the close, but I've got a couple of things I've got to do. So we'll be out of here in a little bit. There's certain verbiage we use when it comes to markets.

And the verbiage is meant to make sense. it is to convey to you our thoughts on the markets, where we stand, what we think. And when we do markets here, we're just not talking about the Dow and the S&P and the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100. We go through 200 sectors, countries, all of them

commodities all of them whatever we think the bond market whatever we think needs to be covered we will cover and we will use terminology

that explains our stance when we say a void that means a void when we say topped that means we think it's That means we think right now price is not going to go through the highs of where it was. When we say broke down, that means it has changed the playing field on how it was trading.

When we say the up trend is over, that means whatever trend to the upside it was, no longer. when we say the downside trend is over, the vice versa. And then we use some terminology, a simple phrase that we use, and that is shot across the bow. And what that simply means for us, for you, is the market has given a signal. a potential signal. You see a shot across the bow does not necessarily mean the end. But when we see important areas of the market

or important names of the market and we think the market is taken out a mallet and knocked it over the head. And then we end up with definable areas that we don't think can get back over. And then more and more names do that. We let you know. Last week, well, let's start with sentiment.

We have been worried about sentiment. Complacency. There are certain measurements that we follow, and we only care about them when they go to extremes. These extreme readings, when we're in a bearish phase, will go very bearish. What? What? It means everybody is now bearish.

Everybody's now to the bearish side. The market made them go to the bearish side. Remember, price moves people. Price moves emotion. But we really only care about it when it goes to extremes. And recently, we've had extreme readings on the Bulls, on complacency, on nothing can go wrong, on everything's going to the moon.

And that only occurs because the markets had a good run, certain stocks have had a good run, people feel a lot better. So sentiment has already there. That's number one. Number two, recent slippage. Slipage, what does that mean? Well, as we rallied up, there were fewer new highs. Well, what does that mean? Well, there's showing you that the indices may be doing okay, but the average stock not doing as well. Just the little thing we follow. And then a few stocks just get themselves in trouble.

Nothing untoward. And then came late last week, which may or may not meant anything. And that was one name. Super micro. Super micro. The stock had gone. insane to the upside until Friday when we had what we called a climactic move a blow off top now we're not

sure what it means because usually a climatic move the stock's got to be going for a long while and this wasn't but it did have a monstrous move in a short period of time and a climatic blow off means well after such a large move, you open up hot and you finish down, not only down, but you take away a bunch of days. So SMCI was down 200. And earlier today, oh, it was down another 105. But that's not the point I want to make. Because we'll get to that when the market closes because it's had what we call normal craziness after wild moves. the shot across the bow we're talking about is what's recently had its way in this market

has been semiconductors, artificial intelligence, software slash technology, and the like. On Friday, we did pose the question on SMCI. Well, is this the start of something? Well, we got some of that today. Today, they really smoked. Software, artificial intelligence, semiconductor, technology, though as we get towards the close, much worse earlier but still roughed up. And as you know, what we are about here is pattern recognition and our ability to decipher whether a move is over or not. And may I state for the record, that's not easy,

but you put your best foot forward. There's a lot of stocks today that we think probably hit that proverbial wall because they've had a good run. But now what we're starting to get is the big strength pulling in, the strength pulling in a little more, the not so strong getting in trouble, and the weak just getting busted up already. So we're just going to use the word shot across the bow

with a question mark, and we'll see what are the cards come out of the deck as we move forward. Now, I will state for the record, while the technology area finally got some comeuppance today, I can safely tell you that other areas were okay. The lower beta areas were okay. They didn't really get hit. big banks that have been on a relative basis pretty darn good, we're up a little bit today.

While the NASDAQ's down another 170 as I speak. Remember, the NASDAQ got roughed up last week already. Up next, we'll take you to the final numbers. We'll have a lot more thoughts. News of the day, whatever else today. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show. Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial

goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-59. That's 8-8-5-5-9. That's 888-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management.

Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script. where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us

live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just, like, chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat, and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomach kick every day.

Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy. and IHeart Radio.

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Reese's peanut buttercups. They go perfectly with music. Podcasts. And welcome back to the show. Even nature sounds. Oh, and the thing where someone crinkles tissue and whispers at you.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, I guess the NASDAQ, which was down 160 Friday, I got it down 162 right now with a couple of minutes left in the market. So 320, which by the way is a whopping 2%. Whoopty-do.

It is quite normal in bullish phases for the NASDAQ to be down 10, 12 in corrective phases. Oh, we're not saying that's going to happen. we are stating that possible shot across the bow that's what we're willing to say and we can't be certain and tomorrow after the close is NVIDIA but we'll call a shot across the bow

and any worsening will be a little bit more so stay tuned we're on top of it just giving you heads up, it may mean squat. But for a certain few names, it's definitely more than that. You have some what we call decent chart breaks on a bunch of names. Chart breaks.

The heck's a chart break. Well, it means it was on a certain road of movement, and it broke away from that movement. And in a negative fashion. But what have we said again? It's normal to get some pain in bullish phases. It's normal. And now what we get to do is measure.

Simply measure. What do we mean by that? Well, if we do correct some more, what doesn't correct? What keeps going? What completely ignores any correction? If it occurs, maybe this is just a little 2% nothing. I'm all for that. We're just giving you a little heads up.

We don't want to go further than that. If we have to go further than that, oh, we'll let you know. We're not shy. Of note in the market, Capital One is buying Discovery Financial. Discovery Financial today was up I got it here somewhere of almost 14 bucks to 124 Capital One was flat

I'm surprised that Capital One wasn't dead The big question is A Justice Department that stopped JetBlue From merging With Spirit Air Are they going to do the same with Capital One and discovery, and may I state for the record,

this is all about antitrust and monopolies and too much of the same business, I can certainly promise you that a merger of Capital One with Discovery Financial more than likely in the eyes of this Justice Department that has their greasy, grimy, slimy hands on the choking business,

I've got to think they're going to be a lot tougher. I got to think they're going to be a lot meaner. I got to think they're not going to let this go through. It'll all depend on the lobbyists and the lawyers and all that. And I say that, I hope the merge goes through, but you're now making a credit card company that was already huge into a

huger one, if hugeer's a word. And they don't like big. So we'll see how it plays out. I didn't even spend a moment on the deal because I know what the company is. What paid a penalty today? MasterCard. That was pretty strong until today.

Down about 4%. 16 and change. Visa less so. So little repercussion. And I bet you the people are MasterCard's going to be pissed off. That stood out. But otherwise, the Dow was only down 63. S&P, though, was down 30. The NASDAQ was only down 144. And I can tell you it one time today. The NASDAQ hit 15508, 122, it was down 266. And it was really ugly.

So let's call it less ugly by the clothes. I have yet to really get into my scan, so I'll know a lot more a little bit later. But a quick glance, as I said to you, says a little bit of damage today. A little bit. But overall, nah. But things went by the wayside. Support was taken out on some things. And adjustments should be made as we move forward.

And tomorrow's another day. And I got received a bunch of emails today about Super Micro. You know what that means? People are really like, wow, that was a big mover. And man, maybe we should, well, no, whoa, whoa, whoa. It hit $692 today. It was down $110.10. Finished only down $15 to $7.87.

It was $1,072 on Friday. My message to you, if you would like to play these things, have a lot of Maylocks and Xanax around. Because it is not for the feign of heart. I can promise you that. And again, let me be clear. You really can't tell by one day. We've had two. You kind of sort of can't tell by two days.

You know what I can tell by? The bounces. If the bounces are anemic after a drop And short-lived after a drop And then roll over and break the near-term lows Then it's game on Again, we're not there yet But I'm letting you know

Shot across the bell And as always if anything changes We'll let you know What hasn't changed gold miners, ick. China, which is bounced a little bit, still ick.

Most oils, ick. The metals and mining complex, ick. There's still a decent amount of ick. Up next, more on these markets. News of the day,

I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. J. Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down pharmacist to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal.

A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just I have a stomach kick every day, or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change.

Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and I. Heart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans. The case of the missing Reese's. It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're Reese's. What was that going to do? Stop myself. Tune in next time to see if I do it again. Spoiler. I will.

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You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended.

You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So advanced declines 1526 on the NASDAQ, 1623 on the New York. York, new highs a little bit more than new lows, but as we've said, new highs have dissipated, and just some weird, just some wicked stuff. You have some names, big cap names that have moved up and down three to five percent a day, whipsawing around. That's tough to measure. Our job again, give me the big up trends, give me the big down trends. And then sometimes you have moments where you get nothing.

And that's where you take a step back, hang out, be patient. Now what I did see today, interesting enough, was a lot of people already, already. Here's the top. It's over. It's over. It's over. It's over. It's over. All right. That's actually good news when you see that. And I don't want to get too technical, but these are the measurements we use. As a side note.

And I can tell you flat out, we see absolutely nothing, nothing, on what we call the overall bearish front underneath a little bit. We have owned the S&P since that breakout out in November.

Little bit off the lows. It has not given us any thought of selling as it rides up a nice little trend. We can promise you if that changes

we'll let you know. It wouldn't take a lot to change the trend but we just notice the complete inability for that overall trend to change. Again, though, underneath the surface, some shots across the bow and the areas and in the areas that had been working best. Tomorrow be another day. I do like how we finished,

though still a little bit roughed up. I'm getting a lot of questions, and I know why. the Fed. Are they going to raise rates? Are they going to low rates? What are they going to do? When are they going to do it? I've been trying to tell you, it doesn't matter. I don't know why that Wall Street and the pundits give them so much credit. I don't know why they give them so much that we have to deal with them. I get the point that this miscreant, Jay Powell printed to 9 trillion bucks and lifted

markets and a bunch of crap but he can't do that anymore and at this point in time what is he going to do real yields are lower than him if he lowers his rate terrific I guess that could help markets

it would do nothing for the economy If he goes from 5 and a half to 5, it's meaningless. Why? Because the 10-year yield, which is much more important at this time, is at 4-2. And that's what matters most. I just wouldn't worry about them. And why people are so worried, I don't know.

Now, if by chance Jay Powell tomorrow announces, oh, another quantitative easing. I think the Dow would go up 5,000 points. That's how crazy the market is and how much the market loves printed money. He'll cause more bubbles and then we'll croak again. But I don't think that's in the cards in any way, shape, or form at this juncture. Most earnings are out. Those are a few others. Home Depot reported today.

Was down eight pre-market finished up on crappy numbers. and then Walmart was up 11 and finished up 5. I am stunned and actually amazed. Walmart, which does 333, $650 billion of revenues, was able to grow their revenues 5% year over year. That's amazing. Let me repeat that. they do $650 billion in revenues a year.

And they grew them. Again, what a company. And I've always been amazed when the Marxist Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren complain about Walmart, oh, because of a union, this, union, that they do. Two morons. Do you know how many cashiers are now managers at Walmart, making lots of bucks, and have stock, oh a lot of them. Greatest cash generating machine in history, lowered inflation,

single-handedly with their pricing. Now, let's get mad at them. So Walmart, a big wow. In the news, and again, some of these things I find on the stunning side, and I don't know why. In case you don't know, a lot of companies in Wall Street had to kiss the royal rear end of the Al Gore types

on climate throughout the years. Oh, we got to do this, we got to do that, we got to do this because they say so. And they figured out what we've known all long, that it's a scam. Not that the climate changes, we know it does, duh. It's the scam of them coming into your wallets and making themselves filthy rich.

They probably listened to this show where we stated they used to yell and scream at us that we're scum if we don't believe them about global cooling decades ago. And then it warmed up so they changed it to global warming. And then we had a couple of years of freezing. And they look like idiots that they are

and they got smart. and I got to hand it to him. They came up with climate change. That way, no matter what, they're right. And every time we have some extreme weather, hey, look. But the con is, and Al Gore saying in 17 years, in 10 years with doom 17 years ago, the grapefruits on this con artist to tell us we have 10 years, even though the earth is 4.5 billion years old

and people fell for it. They made a movie. Look at the polar bears. I got news for you, kids. They're con artists. And Wall Street's finally figured it out. And no longer they cowtowing to these doofuses who have made themselves filthy rich off of this.

And you do know, Big Joe Biden just took 380 billion of our tax dollars, $380 billion, and handed it to John Podesta, Democratic hack, to give out on climate. What for?

They're going to stop the hurricanes? They're going to stop the tornadoes? I have news for all of you. They can't. It's a scam. The royal scam. Why not just come out and say, hey we need to do something about the pollution, do the best we can, and keep going at it.

You know why they don't want to do that and can't? Ain't going to get any money off of it. What's the use of that? Companies are already going green, a ton of them around the world. But they came up with this Paris Accord and not one country is following through. The other scam. Do you know why they can't follow through? because they know. Do you know what drives the world? Petroleum! Try getting rid of that,

said Leo DiCaprio. Up next, more news of the day, whatever else. This is the one only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS. pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day or I'm constantly feeling like gassy and all of those things

are not something that generally if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So, That's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts

about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Reese's peanut butter cups. They go perfectly with music. Podcasts. And welcome back to the show. Even nature sounds. Oh, and the thing where someone crinkles tissue and whispers at you.

Hello. Look, I'm not here to judge what you listen to. I'm here to judge you for not eating Reese's while you listen to it. Reeses. Ashley, go back to the nature sounds. Nice. Yeah, that's really nice. Cashflow crunch? On-deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to 200. thousand dollars right when you need it cover seasonal dips manage payroll restock inventory or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat with flexible draws transparent pricing and control over repayment get funded quickly and confidently apply today at on deck.com funds could be available as soon as tomorrow depending on certain loan attributes your business loan may be issued by on deck or celtic bank on deck does not lend in north

Dakota all loans and amount subject to lender approval you're listening to What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Hester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. By the way, you know what they got the weather people doing?

Go turn on the weather people now. Do you notice the maps? They're brighter red. The storms look like, holy hell. They're using words like, massive. Everything's now massive. Oh, look at the storms there. It's massive.

And leave no doubt. There's some bad crap going on. There's floods in California. What? We've never had floods before? Really? Haven't had tornadoes before? Please help me.

The first week I ever moved to Florida, a tornado hit my apartment. That was way back when. there was a year in central Florida we had three hurricanes come through and that we didn't have any for years and you know what they told us that's extreme weather not having hurricanes for years we just want you to remember that we want you to watch your wallets this is how you get the 34 trillion of debt

it's stunning to see how many have fallen for it when I see that Greta girl, that young girl from whatever, what we found out she's also an anti-Semite to boot. She's got people following her like she knows. We're going to keep coming. By the way, I want to make sure you know this. Anything we tell you, we would get in Al Gore's face and to say it right to his face. All these celebrities and people telling us what we have to do

and then they get on their private jet to fly to the yachts. we'd say it straight to their face. We don't give a crap about them. And when all hell breaks loose on the debt, we just want you to remember this is where it's come from. This is where it comes from. Them. In other news, got to bring this up.

One of the stocks we follow very closely in the software security space, and this could have a little bit of an effect tomorrow, Palo Alto Networks just reported, closed at $366. It's at $318 in the aftermarket. That's one big giant matzabal in the aftermarket. We'll see what that does. It will hit the rest of the software security stocks. We'll see what else it does.

There are certain names. You know, we talk about. Caterpillar, FedEx. Well, in the software, Microsoft would be the head honcho, top dog, big cheese. But this Palo Alto is one we watch. Down 48, initially, we'll see if that continues. Just letting you know. Ick.

Ow. Yuck. Ooh, that's not good. In the news, you know, we never mentioned this, but I got to mention this. I went out to get the mail a little while ago. A SpaceX just went up right over my. Not over my head, but as I look towards Port Canaveral, it's so cool to be in central Florida, and then look east, and boy, oh boy, rockets going up.

Elon Musk, he was so loved, and then all of a sudden he got logical, and now he's like the most hated guy on earth. What do we mean by logical? Well, what do I tell you about Mr. Logic? debt is bad they're conning you they're scamming you deficits are bad they're ripping you off

they're doing this they're doing that and he called them out and guess what he is now the antichrist that's how it goes unfortunately in the news Nikki Haley

says even if she loses South Carolina her home state to Donald Trump she is staying in until Super Tuesday. Now, let me state for the record, I have a better chance of winning the high jump at the Paris Olympics in the summer than Nikki Haley has in beating Trump now.

I don't understand why people whine and complain about her staying in. I would. When you have somebody, that has 91 counts on him, I would. But people whine and complain. I don't know why. But as I have told you, Trump is a 100% lock at this time.

And I do believe there's any chance of his issues legally to stop that, which makes the next nine months sheer insanity. And as I told you, another royal. scam is what they did in New York with Trump. One man, a judge, and one woman, an attorney general, who said she was after him before anything came of it. In my world, not the legal world, but the world of logic, this is a laffer. This was a laffer. This was a laffer. If anything, there should have been a fine of 10 million bucks and that's it. There was no crime that they can charge him with. No jail. Everything was done through the banks. The banks were good with it. And I can promise you,

anybody in real estate that goes for loans, you start high. You take them down. The other thing is the Trump name. That carries big bucks with it. So just letting you know there's a lot we're going to be dealing with the next nine months. Anyway, we'll see about NVIDIA tomorrow. Palo Alto tonight.

Shot across the bow. Have a great evening drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise. As always, thanks for joining. Peace out. all. Good night. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Coltbaum on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common side effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dim or dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if

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