Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Sloppy Action Continues [04.10.2025 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: April 10, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kay, who's out today. Today is Thursday, April 10th, 2025, and we have a great show for you tonight.

As always, we want to thank you very much for being here. Some housekeeping before we dive into the numbers and do the market wrap and all the fun stuff for today's show. Just some housekeeping first. As you know, this is a show about you and your money and all of the fun points in between. Just as a quick reminder, if you don't get the show in your city, you can go to GaryK.com.

And the beautiful link there is you can listen live or archive, rewind, fast forward, pause the show anytime you want from any device all for free on GaryK.com. You can also follow Gary on X, formerly known as Twitter by just pressing the button or hit at Gary Koppelm on Twitter. or an X. I still call it Twitter. Also at GaryK.com you can subscribe and Gary's morning notes sent directly to your inbox for free.

You can email Gary, read the rest of his commentary posts, or subscribe to his premium service, which is convictionleaders.com. Once again, that's convictionleaders.com. All right. A few things here, some big things. Number one, we are in a bare market. That is just first and foremost, it's really important to understand that. in bare markets, surprises happen to the downside, not the upside.

The market wrapped for today. The Dow lost 1,014 points, almost 1,015, ended at 39, 59366, or down about 2.5%. The S&P 500 lost 188 points and about 3.46%, closed at 5268. and the NASDAQ composite lost 737 points, about 4.31%, close at 16,387. The Russell 2000 closed down even worse, which are small cap stocks, which I'll talk about in a few minutes, lost 4.7, 7% lost 91 points, closed at 182187. Now, a few things here. Again, surprises happen in the downside, not the upside, in bare markets.

Well, we're in a bare market defined by decline of 20% or more from the recent highs. Now, if you look at the indices, any of these indices, it applies to everything, but I'll go to small caps first, risk. You know, investors, they risk their money. The idea is they have a reward on the other side of it. And that's how markets work. It doesn't matter. Well, really, any investment for that matter. It doesn't matter if you're buying a stock, you're buying real estate, you're buying crypto,

Forex, a foreign exchange, commodities, or even buying a business. business. There's an element of risk, an element of reward. So what's happening is you have a situation where the risk appetite, I'm going to use some fancy Wall Street lingo and then simplify it in a second, but I'm going to give you what the lingo is and then explain to you what it means. It goes, it changes depending on the market cap. So all things being equal, smaller cap stocks tend to be more sensitive to risk on, risk off environments. So the Fed raising rates that will impact small caps typically more than the other market, the other indices, right?

Same with the midcaps. They're more sensitive than the large caps. So as you go down the market cap structure, they get more sensitive to events. I'm going to use events very widely because that's going to vary depending on, you know, the event that happens, whether it's the Fed or it's CPI, like what happened today, the consumer price index was released, or it's the tariffs or shmariffs or whatever the headline is, du jour. We want to look at putting the pieces of the puzzle together. We want to look at it as the probability.

Nobody knows what's going to happen for sure, but where the high probability likelihood of outcomes, and then where on that spectrum will these events? fall. So I wish I could share my screen with you right now, but I can't, so I'll talk you through it because you can pull up a, pull this up at home. But if you go to the NASDAQ 100, the QQ, and you hit a weekly chart, and you can go back, I don't know, five, six years here, go back to 2021 if you want, even four years. And you can see the highs in 2021 for the NASDAQ 100, the QQ, were, let's go ahead and give you the exact number here, right near 408.

I'm just going to use the round number, 408. Okay? The low this week was 402. I'm not making that up. Again, the high in 2021 was just above 400. So let's just say 408, it's a rounding number. But again, for me, it's the spirit of the law, not the letter of the law. So I want the spirit of what's being said, support and resistance.

What does that mean? It means every time a stock gets towards, let's say it's in a trading range, towards resistance, which is the high of that range. So let's say a stock goes between 50 and 55 for six months. Every time it gets towards 55, that's resistance. It falls. And then it bounces when it gets towards 50. That's support.

So think of resistance as a ceiling support is a floor. Excuse me. So all right. What does that mean? Lots of times, just how humans are structured, we have what's called cognitive biases. I talk about this at length in my book. It's called psychological analysis. If you want to grab it, feel free.

You can get on Amazon or Barnes Noble or wherever books are sold. And it was number one every day for three months when I first published it. So I'm very happy and thank everybody for the kind reviews and the nice words. But the whole idea of the book is to teach people how to make rational, not emotional decisions, especially with their money. So if you have a mind, you have biases, cognitive biases. And you can Google these. I didn't make any of this up. I'm just learning.

I'll make the rules. I just play by the rules, right? So I have a mind. I have a brain. And I'm a human. And humans are creatures of habits. We all have good habits and bad habits, strengths and weaknesses and blind spots, which I'll get to and admit it as well, and maybe later in the show.

And anchoring is a big thing. piece of that cognitive bias. In other words, we anchor certain events where there's an emotional attachment to that event stronger than other events. Could be in life, could be in the market, could be anywhere you go. So 408 was the high in 2021. And the entire bare market from second half of 21, really most of 2022, that was the high, that 408 level in the Q's. Well, what happened? You pulled back this week, well, not just this week, but you've been pulling back, really falling hard over the last four, five, six, seven weeks since the end of February, right, into early April. And now you're trying to bounce. And it's not a mistake or a coinkie-dink or, you know, coincidence or anything along those lines of why or where we bounced from. If you understand basic technical analysis, prior resistance becomes support. Not always. ways, but that's a logical place for the market to pull into and then bounce off of. And all that's happening now is the market's trying to bounce off of what was resistance for

years. It's 21, 22, and early 23. We didn't get over that level, that 408 level until I think it was, let me check exactly when it was. Yeah, it was the early 24, maybe late 23, December of 23. And then we kind of fell below it and then we really took off again in early 24. But that was an important level of resistance for a long time. Well, all right, we're bouncing off of there.

If you look at the weekly bar, you know, the weekly bar was a big bar this week coming up until yesterday. Most of those gains was yesterday, right? One day. You had Trump paused with the tariffs. He blinked and caved. And, okay, great. Market soars. Some of the biggest moves up and down happen in downtrends or in bare markets.

Why? because there's a confluence of factors. Number one, you have a lot of people short. Number two, you have value investors and want to step in. And number three, you have momentum investors step in and buy or traders. So the shorts have to cover when the stocks go up or the market goes up. They buy. That's how they get out.

That's how they cover. They're buying. Then you have the value investors step in. They buy. Then you have the market goes up even more. Then you have momentum traders come in, boom. Or the HFTs, the high frequency traders or the algos, whatever's going on. people buy. Okay, great. And then the value investors are rewarded because it's going up, they'll buy more.

There's more shorts cover, and then more people buy, and then so on and so forth. And it goes on and on and on and and that's more or less how you have these huge outlier moves and they tend to happen during bare markets. In healthy bull markets, you don't see wild swings like we're seeing here. In the last 15 minutes today, on Thursday, the 10th of April, the NASDAQ or NASDAQ futures shot up 300 points. It was down 1,000 and it ended up down 700 and change. I mean, that's in the last 15 minutes. And we wiped out a big chunk of yesterday's move. No bueno, like they say.

But that's what happens during week periods in the market. And we saw this before. Meaning what? Back a few months ago, Trump had an extension for the tariffs. Market rally a little bit. It was in February. Okay, great. Or end the January into February-ish.

Great. And then he kicked the can for 30 days. They have an extension for a month. The extension was over. Boom, stocks fell. Well, now there's a 90-day extension. What's going to change? And you see a lot of people sell.

Right? And just be careful with getting caught up in that. That's the important message. chair defense defense defense and Gary's been on it like white on rice up next we've got a lot more to cover I'm Adam Sarhan this is the one and only investors edge hi I'm Gary Kalbaum hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge we're not just handsome radio people we manage investors money for a living specializing in fee-based discretionary money management no big commissions just a fee on the assets that's managed we also provide a full range of

personalized services including retirement planning fixed income and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-422-559. That's 8859. That's 8859. That's 888422-5559. Investment advisory services offered through call bomb capital management.

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This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com. Listen live or archive. We are live Monday through Friday, 6 to 7 p.m. Eastern.

All right. And you can listen on any device for free anywhere you want as long as you have Wi-Fi. All right, beautiful. Well, you can even download the show and get it without Wi-Fi. But anyway, let's get back to task here. So the market, huge down day today. Dow's down over 1,000 points, 2.5%. S&P's down 180 points down almost 3.5%.

NASDAX down 737 points, down about 4.31%. and Russell 2000 down about 81 points. I'm just looking at the final numbers here, down about 4.27%. All right. So what happens? We talked about the NASDAQ having a huge run, the QQ, and then it pulled back and came very close. It undercut, just briefly, but came very close to Gent 2021's high.

The S&P 500 did the same thing. If you look at the SPY, you know, I always like to zoom out, especially when I'm on the show with you. I don't have a lot of time. Gary's on every day. I don't come on often. So when I come on, I want to give you timeless lessons you can learn and talk about some things outside of just the exact thing that happened today, right?

All right. So give you some nuggets you can use, right? SPY in multiple environments, bull markets, bear markets, so on and so forth. SPY. The highs back in 2022, which was early 22, was 479-ish, let's say 4-8. 47998 in the SPY. The low this week was 481. Two points away.

Yeah, maybe a point change away. Again, not a mistake. It doesn't always happen like that. But what happens is these long-term investors come in and say, oh, these are some levels, I'm going to defend, or I'm going to buy, or, or, or, or, plus couple that with the fact that we're so oversold that the market's due to bounce. the Russell 2000 never really got above its 2021 high meaningfully

and now it's retesting where is that the old chart highs in 2018 of 173 before COVID and the low this week was 171 you're at 181 now in the IWM which is a Russell 2000 basically hasn't gone anywhere since 2021 and you can go back it's a little bit above where it was in 2018 you. The midcaps, S&P 400, same thing. You have a big huge move. It erased the gains after 2021. It undercut the high there, 533. You're now at 490, so it undercut that 2021 high,

and you give them back all the gains in 2020-ish. That's a bare market, right? The mid-cap is S&P 400 is down 21% from the high. That's with yesterday's ginormous move. The Russell 2000 is down 26% from its recent 52-week high, and that's with yesterday's ginormous move. And if you look on it weekly, the Russell gave back, I think it was half of the move from yesterday, and you're now about to go negative for the week. It depends on what we closed. Last week, it closed at 181.19.

Right now we're at 181.57 in the IWM. And you can pull this up at home and, you know, follow along. on a weekly chart and just look at the numbers. So you're about to go red for the week. It depends on tomorrow. Now, tomorrow, we have lots of data coming out. One, you know, today you had CPI, which is a consumer price index, inflation data. Two, this is before the tariff.

So it's old news. The market looks forward, right? Another big lesson, I'm going to type Vervech for a second and I'll get back to tomorrow's data, is to look forward. I scratched my head for years. I did more than that. I bang my head against the wall. not literally, but I just didn't understand.

Data by definition is a rear view for mirror phenomenon. So the data that comes out, economic data, earnings data, the data looks backwards. The market's a forward-looking mechanism and it looks forward. I didn't understand that for a long time. And then when I finally got it, it clicked. So when you look, let's get back to the data for tomorrow. When you look at tomorrow, we have the PPI, which is a producer price index. All right.

And then we have earnings from the big banks. And it's not so much the numbers that matter because, again, the numbers are review merit. It's the reaction to the numbers. If we get these CEOs pretty much confirming that we're already in a recession and the numbers were lousy in Q1 of this year for the banks, that's not going to bode well for the rest of the market. Why? Because you have to ask yourself, how does the market, you know, these banks make money. They make money when there's money sloshing or money. around the economy. The economy is growing. Things are going well. That's how the big banks make

their money. Okay. When things get lousy or slow down, it puts some pressure on the financials. Less people are borrowing, less people are spending, less money moving around the economy. Same thing for the transportation stocks. I love to look at this stuff. I notice the language, I love to look at this stuff because to me it's fascinating. You know, look at the transportation index and you ask yourself, oh, you know, is the economy, what is that telling us about the economy? Well, the transportation index, the IYT, ETF that tracks the transportation index. It's in the bare market, down 22% from the high. And by the way, that guy also erased the gains from 2021. And it's about to read, same thing as the smaller caps. It's about to retest the highs from 2018. This is the same.

same level it was in 2020 right after COVID. And that tells us a lot, right? The financials, if you look at the XLF, that's an ETF that tracks the financials. So I want to see what the big banks report tomorrow. That's important. But more important, I want to see how the market and the individual stocks react to earnings. And by the way, same is true over the next six, seven, eight, nine, ten weeks until the end of the quarter. Because we're going to have hundreds, thousands of companies are going to be reporting earnings over the next few weeks and months. Right? They pretty much report until the end of the quarter, but the bulk of the earnings are the

next four, five, six, seven weeks. Delta, DAL, had earnings yesterday. Huge move. Today it's down 11%. And Delta is in a bare market. Down 44% from a 52 week high that was hit. in January, February of this year. Basically cut in half.

And yesterday, on earnings, you would expect the stock to have some positive fall through to the upside today. In a healthy environment or even a neutral environment, it would have, most likely. Today it gets clobbered. And when you have wild swings like this, heightened volatility, it reinforces the defensive stance that Gary's been talking about four months now. Why? Because how do you trade that? You buy Delta at the close yesterday. Today, you're down 11%. What? No, thank you. I don't want that.

I mean, it's tempting. Look, you're down 44%. You're so oversold. You're so stretched. Logically, you're going to pull, you know, you'd rally a little bit more. You'd go into 50, 52, 53. Somewhere in that area. No, down 11%. The next day. So just take your time, folks. Defense, defense, defense, defense. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only investors' edge.

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The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Sprecker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

You're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com. rewind fast forward, listen at your convenience anytime you want. All right, all for free on any device. All right, we spoke about the market, gave you the market wrap, spoke about some cognitive biases, some psychological analysis, and I spoke about know your strengths, know your weaknesses, and know your blind spots.

So one question I like to ask is what am I missing? What am I missing? Strengths, weaknesses, this helps me. find the blind spot. Strengths, I understand. So my strengths, I'm good at big picture. Weaknesses. I'm very bad. I mean vary with the capital V and capital B at details and small, like, you know, right left, super minutia, the minutia. I just, my brain does not work well. Training wise, I'm very good at longer term charts. I'm very bad at one minute charts. It's just I know myself. So therefore, I adjust when I trade and when I invest, I'm not looking at one minute charts.

At least I try not to look at one minute charts. Sometimes I do. I want to see the action, but I'm not making trading decisions. At least I'm trying not to off of simple, you know, off of one minute charts. It's just it's not my expertise. It's not my 40. Other people might be good at it. Great. God bless them. I'm not. It's just not my area of expertise. Stay in my lane. All right. Blind spots. What am I missing? What am I missing? I asked myself that question several times a day. And the other side is what can I do better? What can I do better? Why? Because as an investor, it's not manual labor. We get paid to think and we get paid very well to perform.

And we get penalized if we don't perform. Now Pearson Breaking News at helicopter crashes in the Hudson River. That's not fun. Hope everybody is okay. All right. It's a performance-based business. And what works for one person might not work for the other person. Think of an actor.

Clutie, Brad Pitt, Julia Roberts, and the list goes on and on of a, you know, top of the top of the best of the best actors, it paid a lot of money. And they perform very, very well. A producer knows if he puts Clooney in a movie, he's probably going to have X amount of dollars. So if I, let's say it's a dollar. If I pay Clooney 50 cents, I have 50 cents a profit. Hey, that's a good trade. let's go do that. Just add a few zeros on there and it's millions, right? 100 million,

50 million, whatever those numbers are. But you get a no-name actor. He's not going to pull the same audience as a very well-known actor that can perform and perform very, very well. And that's the magic. It's finding your lane, finding your area of, what's a good way of wording this, finding your strengths and then knowing your weaknesses identifying your blind spots and then really figuring out a way to help you perform at your best it's peak performance and it's funny because a lot of the things that come up when you ask the question what am I missing and just breathe you know in if you want to take a account have a system in for four hold for seven, out for eight. And blow out through your mouth, in through your nose, out of your mouth.

Just calms a nervous system down. You do that four times. And just relax. There's no rush. Just relax. And then you'll have thoughts that pop in your head. Write them down. You're probably going to forget. Whatever that first thought is that pops in my head, I used to ignore them, but go, it's just my head. It's just me. Oh, now I just write it down. It's like, all right, you'll see Pattern. Do it every day for 10 days. You'll be shocked at what happens. And it's not just what am I missing when it comes to markets. It's all over.

It's universal. Relationships, ideas, business, health, so on and so forth. What am I missing? And then second, take a break or if you want to continue, breathing and doing the questions. I mean, take a break, it up, walk around or whatever you want, come back. Same thing. How can I do? What can I do better?

What can I do better? Over time, this helps rewire your brain. And it controls that state of fear or the fomo, right? You fear you're missing out on the upside. And then fear when stocks are going down on the downside. Bull market, you have fomo. Bare market, you have just outright fear. This is a performance-based business.

So I studied psychology. I'm not a psychologist, just to be very fair. psychiatrist. I'm a normal guy who just has a urge, just a burning desire to excel and win. It's a competitive business, right? That's what attracted me to this business way back in the 90s. I fell in love with it because it's an arena that I can compete in and I can win in it's based on one thing and one variable only, my intellect. Not my size, my intellect. If I go play basketball, against Shaquille O'Neal, there's no way I'm going to win. It's physically impossible. Guys, two, three times my size. Okay, I'm not going to become an NBA player. It's not going to happen.

The market's similar situation, but there's no restriction from a physical standpoint. Mental standpoints, I've got one job to learn. It's been the story in my life. It's that simple. And then share what I learn with others because it's extremely rewarding. It's the acts of service, right? If you can find a fulfillment, fulfilling life, it serve others. I have a foundation. It's called Happyface Project. You can go there happyfaceproject.org where I'm helping now people learn life skills. They don't learn in the classroom. It's called happyfaceproject.org. I started it, you know, things like financial literacy, things about emotional IQ, how to handle situations where you're uncomfortable, so on and so forth.

Right, just things they don't teach us in the classroom. I mean, there's the whole, you can see everything on the website if you're interested. But the whole idea there is what? it's the close that education gap, the difference between what you learn in the classroom and then real world skills. I have young kids. I can see there's a huge gap. I can see from my own life experiences, things I wish I would have learned 20 years ago, 10 years ago, how to have more awareness of not just my behavior, but my reactions. An event occurs.

I have the choice on how I react to it. That was huge, right? You can't control what happens to you in life, but you can't control how you react to it. That set me free. One of the many things that set me free. Why? Because you have the ability to say, oh, okay, hold on a second here. I can choose how I react to it.

I teach my kids the same thing. Someone says something mean to you in school. That's okay. It's their choice. They have a problem. They're the ones that have a problem, not you. You choose how you react to it. The market goes down.

I have a choice. How am I going to react? Buy, sell, hold. Simple. If I'm in, I have a choice. Am I going to buy more? Am I going to sell it? I'm going to hold.

Market goes up. Same three choices. If I'm out, I have two choices. I'm not going to hold. I'm going to either buy it or sell it. Or the third thing is stay out. I guess hold is stay out. It'll be hold.

Hold my position of not having a position. Right? It's just that simple. and then simplify things as much as possible. Have a game plan. We had a follow-through day yesterday, which is a big update. You had that trifect I talked about. Short covering rally by the dippers showed up,

value investors, and then the momentum traders. Boom, boom, boom, boom. The move happened maybe in an hour, but most of the move happened in a few minutes. But let's just say the second half of the day yesterday, just to be generous. That was it. the rest of the week, it's been relentless selling.

And you go back the week before or the week before that or the week before that. You've been down every single week in the NASDAQ 100 except for one week in late March. Every other week you've been down since the end of February. That is how the market speaks. Same with the S&P 500. And that one up week in the end of March was, eh. just a little bit. So I always like to say the market's speaking

and then ask, are you listening? That's our job. Remember, most communication is nonverbal. All right, up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarian, and this is the warning moment investors edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal. a quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. used relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and

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Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge with Gary Culpa.

And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan. I want to thank you very much for being here. In case you missed any part of the show, or if I went fast, I have a tendency to speak fast, you go to GaryK.com, you can rewind, fast forward, listen at your convenience 24-7, all for free on GaryK.com. If you want more from Gary, I recommend Convictionleaders.com. It's a great service. It's his premium service. He gives daily webcasts, shows you charts, let you see the market from his point of view. You can see things that he sees,

and you can help put connected dots. And he also gives a whole lot more. Intra-day updates, several times a day, so on and so forth. All right. If you like him on the radio, you really like his conviction leader's service. You can take a free trial. If you like it, stay. You don't like it.

It's not for you. That's great, too. All right. That being, or don't, up to you. That being said, well, this is an investor's edge. So for me, I'm always looking for an edge. The market, right? We are still, even with today's sell-off, extremely oversold.

and sentiment levels are very bearish. Think of a red light green light. After every green light, what happens? You get a yellow and then a red light. After every red light, what happens? It goes green, and then so on and so forth. Same with markets. Very rarely do you have a situation

where it's like a waterfall just decline. It happens infrequently, but it happens. Right now, the environment is we. week. That could change and it could change quickly, just like what happened on Wednesday. But we want to see follow through. So what am I looking for going forward? It's a number one, the market not getting crushed like a day like today. You know, you're not down 4% or 3% or just not down. Let it be up, have an up day. Have an up week. Let's see where we close tomorrow. I don't know if I'll be back tomorrow or not.

or if Gary's going to do it, depending on his schedule. But if we have a strong close tomorrow and it's an upper half of the range, this will be a good weekly bar. If it's a lousy close or we just have a lousy day tomorrow and we're down, it'll erase the gains for the week and we'll end mix or lower. No, bueno. We'll see. But just understand there's so much damage, technical damage,

that it requires two things. that Gary's mentioned before. Time to heal the wound and price, better price action. I want to see the market, A, go up. B, have stocks, leading stocks. Break out, repair the damage, come up the right side of this base, of build new bases, and that's what they're doing now. Break out of these bases, so on and so forth.

You want to see what leadership is? What's working in this environment? Very little to nothing. Gold. Look at GLD when you have a chance. Beautiful action there. Nice big base, had a nice rally. January, February, March, pulled back into the 50, and the last three days, boom, took off.

Even yesterday when the market was up a lot, gold was up. Not so much for silver, interestingly enough. Silver has been weaker. But gold acts strong. GDX is a gold miner's ETF. GDX, J, or the junior. minors, you know, GDX are the major ones and GDXJ are the minor or the juniors. You know, that's been an area of strength.

Outside of that, very little is working. You know, I love leadership. These stocks are building bases. And then we'll see what happens after earnings. There's a Spotify, for example, SPOT or Netflix, for example, that are doing their best to hang in there. They're building double bottom patterns or, you know, they're trying to hang in there. They're not getting mauled by the bear. Netflix reports in seven days, right?

You have other stocks like a Tesla, was a leader after the election and then just got crushed. Went from 488 down to 217. Now you're at 252. No, no, not good. And Navidia even had a huge move, was a massive leader, topped out in November at 152, trying to get above it in January, 153, and then now it's at 107. And it just fell to the high 80s. I think it was it, was it 86, 87, just a few days ago.

So we're still oversold. Very high possibility here. Ready for this? We go up or we go down. That's how difficult it is to trade a market that is trading like a penny stock, like Gary's mentioned. These wild swings, I mean, the NASDAQ rally 300 points thereabouts in the last 15 minutes of the day today. That is massive.

And the other indices, too, just wild swings up and down. To me, I want to wait for higher probability outcomes. It doesn't mean you can't do whatever you want. I want to buy, sell, hold. Whatever you want to do, do it. I'm just letting you know what I'm looking for. I want the patient to heal some of give it time, give it price. I want to see healthier action.

I love leading stocks. I love finding leadership. Why? Because what makes a stock good? If it goes up after I buy it, that's it. Earnings, all that other stuff. Sure, that's also good and important. But really, I want to see the stock go up after I buy it.

By definition, I'm looking for leading stocks. And I'll filter out the lagging stocks. I want to find leaders. And so far it's slim pickings. But we're entering earnings season. We're entering, we'll see what happens tomorrow with inflation with PPI. After that, we've got earnings. Earnings, earnings, earnings.

And then, of course, tariffs and uncertainty around tariffs. Now, they asked me, why is the market going down? I was in the local news last night in Bloomberg, the day before Monday and twice and over the weekend. Why? The reporters are asking me, why? AP called a bunch of other people too. Okay, great. It's simple.

Four reasons. tariffs mean earnings go down. Wall Street likes higher earnings, not lower earnings. Two, it means possibly inflation goes up. Three, high likelihood of a recession. earnings go down even more. And then four, markets like certainty, and this introduces a tremendous amount of uncertainty.

Not just what we're going to do with tariffs. It's kicking the can for 90 days. That's fine. What happens after 90 days? Maybe we'll kick the can again. It will have deals. Who knows? All we know is right now the environment is not ideal, but we're very oversold. And those sharp rallies happen during weak environments. So just take my time. And if I miss a day, or I miss two days, or I miss three days of games, that's okay. There's no rush. Defense for me is Paramount. Defense, defense, defense, until the environment improves.

So believe that's all the time I have for today. Thank you very much for listening. As always, this is the one and only Investor's Edge. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

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