Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - SMACKING THE MEGACAPS [07.24.2024]

Episode Date: July 24, 2024

www.garykaltbaum.com

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It would be, I wish I even knew what day it was.

It was such a crazy day today. But it is July 24th. It is Wednesday. It's 2024. Hope you're having a good day. Hey, in case you don't know, this is serious talk about everything that affects you, right? And your money and the markets and the economy and your jobs and your industry and everything else that's meaningful, everything else that matters. We put accentuation on the markets, of course, and we're going to have lots to talk about today.

We'll also cover things going on in Washington, D.C. as that is Muir importante at this time. A lot of things happening today. We're going to get to that later, if you don't mind. Really want to do markets right now. Because we had one of those moments today that, let me just say this. Our goal here, first and first,

foremost is to protect capital, and that's why we put equal weighting on saying to you what not. Avoid this, avoid that. It's why we do shows on scams. It's why every time somebody gets scammed and we read about it, we tell you about it and watch out for it. So the first thing we always want to do, hey, be careful of this. and that we try to give you reasoning behind it. In the case of beyond meat, remember when the stock was going insane to the upside,

and we just simply said to you, take a step back, and you tell me if eating plants instead of that great burger steak is really going to catch on in a way that it's going to grow and grow and grow, and you know what's happened to beyond meat.

Or the Rivian, when they brought it out public and within days they were touting it like crazy, but it had a $170 billion market cap and they hadn't sold a car. And the market cap was almost equal to GM and Ford, even though GM and Ford had 260 billion in revenues. And of course, Rivian dropped 90%. These are the things we try to do here. and a lot of it is easy. The Rivian, that wasn't hard for us.

It really was not hard for us. Beyond meat, wasn't that hard. And in case you don't know, we do a lot of work. We do a lot of homework. When I go to Publix supermarket, I don't just go there and get whatever I need to get. I will take the manager on the side and just ask questions about this, that, and the other thing. like they have this now prime drink. You know who Logan Paul is?

Who, by the way, is a great professional wrestler too. They have a drink. I want to know how well it's selling, so I will. And my sampling is not the greatest, but the manager will know about a region. So that's the type of leg work we do. But also, the reading of the markets, the following of the market,

markets, the putting the best foot forward of the markets. And as we have told you, we invented nothing. We did some adding to some things we learned, but we invented nothing. When I started in this business, I was in the penny stock business. I was in the penny stock business. And what happened was, I knew if I was going to stay in this business, I'd have to learn the business. And I have a buddy out of Tampa, Florida by the name of Bill Kind. I haven't seen him in ages, who showed me these blue and green books, the daily graph books that you now have online from William O'Neill and company. And he started showing me it. And I went to an O'Neill seminar in Boccaratone. At the time, it was free. And I just started studying and I realized over

time, boy, they have like a nice little roadmap here. But instead of me taking their word for gospel, I studied and studied and studied and practiced and tried and made error after error. And then I got a little successful here and there and then error after error and then successful and back and forth because to this day, I'm still learning. and throughout the years we realize that man the market does follow a script and what we mean by that is some of the lines we use with you is we're just looking at a photo album for familiar faces things like that and we've always said to you on this show we know the roadmap of things that are topping out things that are starting descending things that are going to in a bare market, things that are bottoming out, things that are turning up, things that are turning into a bull market. And of course, the only thing we tell you is when we think something's on the move, we never know how far or how long. We don't know distance. We don't know time. We don't know targets. We know direction. And the hope is always to find what we call launching pads.

in order to turn into uptrends. And we also know what has the potential to be a big up trend versus something that can't. And we know that by the type of stock or sector they are in. And the same goes for the other side. When something tops out, we get a feel for things. How far they have gone, whether we're going into a bare market or not, how extreme things have got.

And recently we hit moments. And I've been constantly harping on for, I don't know, months now, about how concentrated the market was, harping on it, to the point where today, and this is an amazing number. And by the way, this outcome comes from how good these stocks have performed versus the rest. The top six stocks in the S&P 500, that is 500 stocks in the S&P, six stocks are over 30% of the S&P, which means 494 stocks are 70%, which means these six have just gargantuan influence on the S&P 500. Gargantuan. Eight stocks are about 48% of the 9%. NASDAQ 100. So 92 stocks are 52%, 8 stocks are 48. So we have said to you, not tongue in

cheek, not sarcastically, they better never get these stocks because the indices will be in trouble. And we have rode these stocks because they have been working. Whether it was in Vittion January 8th and again on their last gap to the upside, recently Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Microsoft, Meta, Facebook or the like, which leads us to two Thursdays ago. You remember that day? So that day, the small and midcaps

really woke up. Remember that day? We came on this show and I believe we used the words they look like they came out of their coma. They had underperformed. In other words, they're the areas that weren't versus this narrow list, this concentrated part of the market.

And it wasn't just, we said six or eight, but it was the semiconductors, the AI trade, software was better. But really, it was just technology as a whole with a major influential part from these names. And you know the names they were. So on that same day, that the small and the midcaps woke up, they smacked the living crap out of those other areas, that it worked so well. And what did we say that day? It felt like a shot across the bow.

A shot across the bow. Imagine that, I'm trying to give a good analogy here. imagine if you're in war and you are advancing and there's nobody to stop you. Imagine that. And then all of a sudden you hit a brick wall of defenders and they start fighting back. That's what happened two Thursdays ago with those areas. And they got beaten up good that day. up next we'll walk you for a couple of weeks.

You'll get it. I'm Gary. This is the one only, Investor's Edge. Safeway and Albertsons have made saving easier than ever, with great savings on family favorites. This week at Safeway and Albertsons, Cosmic crisp apples are 99 cents per pound member price. And USDA Choice Beef Boneless Petit Steak Value Packs are $599 per pound member price. Plus selected sizes and varieties of Coca-Cola or Topo Chico Saburis are 599 each when you buy three limit one offer. Price does not include City of Seattle's sugar, sweetened beverage tax. Visit Safeway or Albertsons.com for more deals and ways to save.

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See Capital One.com for details. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-55-9. That's 8-88-4-22-5-5-9. That's 8-88-4-2-4-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to... Hey, this promises to be fun.

Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality products. Programming with Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. So, we basically just thought, hey, I think we got a shot across the bow. To what extent we don't know, but we thought that there was now a fight,

and sellers were finally gaining the upper hand. So that day, we sold a bunch of our tech. It left us with Apple and Amazon. Simple as that. They dropped the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ 100 on its head. Four days later, another shot across the bow. That was last Wednesday. Last Wednesday, yeah, we sold the Apple and Amazon out of tech.

and we love tech and we're out and we told you so. And the Thursday before Microsoft also we sold meta. And we got some emails from people, boy Gary, you're really. And we just said, here's the issue we had. And we had some issues. Number one, just what we have told you, the concentration of the stocks were beyond the beyond. So much money was coming out of so many places and going into these areas. And we felt there was a, I guess the word is, just get in that thought process.

Just getting that thought process. Because as you know, we always talk to you about human nature, fear and greed. And when portfolio managers get together in the morning, and they're looking and they see, hmm, how come we don't own any Nvidia the last six months? How come we don't... Well, guess what they start doing? It's the chase.

And we're not putting them down. This is not an indictment. Human nature states... that people going to look for the fastest horses, but if you're buying after a big move, you're buying out of discipline. So last Wednesday, the NASDAQ had another shot across the bow, and we're here telling you we're out of tech. And we never know what's next to come. We really don't, though we have a good idea of what's going on. Remember, what we talk about here is we know what's at hand. we don't need somebody to tell us oh we think the so-and-so is going to be so-and-so six months from now

we don't need that we just need what the market's telling us now and knowing we're in the midst of earning season that anything's possible somebody can announce something we get it we understand it so we look for what we call the weight of the evidence we scan 1500 stocks after the close every day. We scan 200 sectors and sub-sectors. We scan countries. We scan commodities. And sometimes we do it twice. And when we notice, hey, there's 80 stocks in this sector. Oh, 60 of them broke down today. Something's up. So we thought something was up. The NASDAQ dropped 655 points today. The NASDAQ 100 dropped 721 points today.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 292 points today. That's all I can tell you. They squashed it today as we go into more earnings season today. And we don't try to rationalize. We deal with what's at hand. They squashed it. Google was up $2 yesterday upon earnings. Do you recall that?

Because it finished down today $9. 5% for a mega-cap stock. Remember that. Influential. Tesla. By the way, Google's numbers didn't look so bad. They look pretty good. Tesla, though, down 30.

$30, their numbers didn't look too good. Tesla's like a top 10. And for whatever reason, Microsoft down 16 today. By the way, all of this on volume, NVIDIA, that cracked the 50 day. NVIDIA cracked the 50 day today. Down 8 and change today. Amazon down 6.

Apple, down 6. Broadcom, down 12, which by the way, just did a 10-for-1 stock split. That would have been 120. K-L-A-C, the equipment maker, down 52, but, hey, earnings. It's up 30 in the aftermarket. How do you like playing those swings? Lamb Research, down 50 today. That'll be up some on KLA-10 Corps.

ASML Holdings down 60 today. Monolithic power down 58 today. 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10% moves in tech today with the socks down 5.41%. So let me state for the record, another big shot across the bow today, notwithstanding, a crap load of earnings coming up and who knows, I don't know what's going to, I don't know. I don't know what's going to gap up. I don't know what's going to gap down I don't know what's going to gap up and sell off

I don't know what's going to gap down and get bought SMCI the super micro down $72 today and of course in that type of weakness the S&P was down 128 dot points today that's a big move for the S&P and of course the Dow

down 504 today that was a rough freaking day. It's the best thing I can tell you. Advanced declines, no good. Sea of red everywhere, except for food, drug, beverage, tobacco household products, and some medicals. That's the big picture as we have thousands more earnings to come as we move forward. That's it. Near term. Listen carefully. The market, these areas, are now stretched, extended, oversold.

We'll get to that up next. On this, the one-only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretched than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit. for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need. explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more Microsoft. microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. So, do you remember, I don't know, 10 days ago we said the oscillator. later and the market was very, very overbought,

well, we've kind of gone coast to coast. From very overbought to we're really oversold. So we could bounce tomorrow. But how do I put this? I think for right now, the dye is being cast, has been cast. Notwithstanding some individual stuff, on earnings. I can tell you, IBM is up seven bucks on earnings to 191. I can tell you, KLAC is up

$25 to $7.80. I can tell you service now, which closed at $7.30 is at $770 in the aftermarket. Ooh, $40. After dropping $35 today, though. I can tell you, Chipotle, which just did a $50 for one split, is up $5 in the... aftermarket to 56. The problem is it was just 69. So we consider that a bounce. Then I can tell you Ford though, ew, down 12% in the aftermarket. But what I can tell you is our thesis, our theme on technology, boy oh boy, into more fruition today, notwithstanding random vicious bounces at any time. They came after today, retail really bad today. They really smacked the heck out of retail today. They came after the economically sensitive stocks today, especially some

earnings that they smacked pretty good today. Simple LII has been a strong name, down 28 today, 5%. Roper, you probably never heard of it ROP, down 42 bucks today down, that was 7%. I can do others, but I think you're getting the point. So let me finish this part by just saying where things finished. The S&P dropped down all the way

right at the 50-day moving average. But the tone of it's so icky. I think any bounce they probably come after. We'll see. The NASDAQ at the close today finished below the 50-day moving averages. By the way, is down 1,300 points in 1, 2, 3, 45, 6, 7, 8, 9 days since we said shot across the bow. The NASDAQ 100 finished way below the 50, much farther.

below the 50 day than the NASDAQ. The Russell 2000, they were holding up so good today, the small and midcaps to the last half hour when they brought them down, still above the last good move from the two Thursdays ago. That said, we'll see if that can continue. The X-L-Y, which is consumer discretionary, big top today. The X-L-Y. And I'm just going through other symbols here.

Ew. They pulled back the housing, but still looks pretty good. The industrials, the X-L-I, that looks like it's rolled over. I can stop right there. Ew. It was just a big, fat, juicy, ew. I wish I had better news. We deal in reality.

what's the strength, the holding up the best? Well, things that react well to earnings, I can tell you that checkpoint software today, CHKP was up $10 today, into a new high ground on their earnings. I can tell you a company called Manhattan Associates was up 23 today, not at highs, but it was up 23 today.

How about a hospital tenant health care? Up six today, a lower priced. And I can do others. Remember yesterday Lockheed Martin, very strong earners. This is up another 13 today because everybody likes a good war. But it's getting a little bit more narrow and advanced the clients today with 754 up, 3284 down on the New York. 992 up 3103 down on the NASDAQ. And I, ew.

Notwithstanding, we'll see what earnings do to the next one. And the next one. And the next one. But a lot of stuff now is way oversold. Do you know that Thursday we sold meta at 530 something? It closed at 461 today. Pure luck. For example.

So we'll take it day by day. We've already getting emails. Do you think this is the start of a bear market? And a bare market means a while and a lot more. My answer is, and I mean this, I don't know. I don't know. What I do know is, is a bunch of things are getting busted up pretty good here. And as I stated, just a hell of a lot of red today.

A hell of a lot of red today. Again, notwithstanding, who's reporting next? And what's the stock going to do? And as we said to you, Chipote lays up, IBM's up, KLA 10 corps is up, I see this impige another semiconductor up 10. After dropping 30 bucks in the last two days, though. So we're going to have to see, oh, it's up 10, oh, but it's down 30 the last few days. We're going to be doing a bunch of that when we do our webcast tonight on anything's deciding to move or bounce.

But let me just again state for the record. Ew. Ew. Gold was stronger early. But that finished down today. Gold is what we'll call in range bound at this time. And the things that were icky got a little more icky today. They even came after some of the stronger oils today on earnings.

And that's why we always tell you with commodities, we kind of sort of just deal with the relative strength. GameStop is back to where that goofball bought. What up. whatever and that chewy that move doing the same thing don't get caught up in that

crap and let's hope this is fleeting how's that I can tell you we had a good correction from 165 down to 152 in late March April and they were off to the races

again so who knows I'm open to all outcomes but give me the evidence that the outcome is changing for the better. Today, they did not do that. In fact, it worsened. If things change, we'll let you know. We'll be double scanning tonight to try and figure out life in general.

Segway. Just letting you know my elbows, it's Bersitis. I want to thank Dr. Jeff, Dr. Xavier, Susan, a couple of others emailed me, sent me pictures. It's not a lipoma. I have bursitis of my elbows. And I think it comes from my working out and I've read up about it and I'm icing it and there's not much else to do with this juncture. They say if you get fever, that means as an infection. I don't have any fever. But dang, as you get older, so many freaking things pop up. It is getting depressing. Remember I had a few months of my freaking back spasms? By the way, they call it Ole Cranon Bricitis. I got like a golf ball on my right elbow and the left one small. The good news is I'm not in any pain whatsoever. And they say often it comes with

a lot of pain. And all I was been doing is, how do I get rid of Biscitis of the elbow? It says compression with a wrap or compression sleeve and icing the elbow 15 to 20 minutes, two to three times a day. But I'm smart. I'm going to see a doctor, just so we can take a look. And so I thank all of you. There's a bunch of you that emailed me and sent pictures.

It's good to have a radio show. Bersitis! Back spasms, Bersitis. I ain't letting up. I'm just letting you know. I'm going to keep work. But right now, I'm done with the weights. I'll do squats, abs, no arms.

Up next. Hey, what else is happening in the world? This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast.

might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Colpaw.

And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. So as we told you, as we go into the, the election. We're going to cover it with no agenda or tary motive of bias. Anybody who lies to you, we're going to call them out. Of course, the media is great at calling out Trump, so they actually do our job for us, but we'll keep doing that also. But, man, on the other side, so a couple of things, just so you know. Tonight, President Biden is going to be doing a speech to the nation

on why he is stepping down. Not stepping down, but not going to run. He has the media and his celebrities and the other politicians lying out their arses to you that it's on his own volition. He was forced out by the elders, the powers the bee, the crushing from the celebrity. and the politicians, and we are now finding out they threatened him with Article 25.

What I want you to do is go look at Article 25, and it's out there, and that would make a lot of sense. So he's stepping down, forced to step down. Now, the other side of the next scam is going to be, that Kamala Harris is now going to be the end-all, be-all, the greatest thing since Pop-Tarts. They're lying to you. In case you don't know, the media has never been happy with her. And to give you an example, Axios, who I have complained about to you before, in 2021,

they called her the border czar. They called her the border czar. And of course, she has done a magnificently terrible job with the border. Axios puts out something today an article about, oh, it's mistaken and the Republicans are full of it, that she has never been the borders are, even though Axios reported back in 2000, Axios comes out with an editor's note today, the grapefruits of these lying sacks.

This article has been updated and clarified to note that Axios was among the News Atlas that incorrectly labeled her the borders are in 2021 because they were called on the carpet. These media, they're insane. And it all comes down to they think we're all jackass stupids. so they think they can get away with anything. Anything. All the bull crap, they think they can get away with anything. They're out talking about Kamala Harris earned the nomination from the grassroots up.

That's what Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries are out there saying now. Earned from the, what grassroots were that? it was a selection kicking everybody to the curb. It's amazing to watch. It's like if I came on here and said to you, I just got off the basketball court with LeBron James, I beat him 2117 and he played his butt off.

It's like you walk outside and it's raining and you tell everybody it's sunny out. This is what they, they don't even care that there's video. they don't care that there's reporting they don't care that there are facts they're all talking about the record of Biden the greatest record of any president that's the line the people that

forced him out are saying the greatest record of any president really 10 million people through the borders massively higher prices for everything said it was transitory 2 trillion plus yearly deficits, massive amounts of debt. Afghanistan where the women have gone back into the dark ages.

The world is on fire in so many areas of the globe. But the greatest present of all time. And they say it with a straight face. But I'm letting you know when they go into the back rooms, I guarantee you they're looking at each unsight. I can't believe I said that. how the hell did I say that crap so we're just letting you know

we're going to cover it we're going to cover the policy issues we're going to cover everything they were out today saying that Kamala Harris is a moderate she wants a 35% corporate tax

she was one that wanted to defund the police and I can go on and on complete payments to anybody coming across the border for their health care and everything. On and on and on.

She is left of Biden who is left of Sanders. And we're going to cover it. Because we the people cannot take more of them. And that goes for all of them. We cannot take

a government that had federal spending just two decades ago of $1.8 trillion that's headed to $10 trillion a year. We can't take a government that's spending more than $2 trillion a year than we send to them. We can't take a government that now wants to do. Unrealized capital gains. Long-term capital gains from 20 to 44.

Wealth taxes. On and on and on and on. Giveaways. Oh, we like you, we're going to give you. It's got to stop. And we'll be reporting it. and it has everything to do with you, your industry, your job, the markets, the economy, the future, your kids' future, my grandchild's future, and we mean business. So stay tuned. It's going to be a bumpy ride. I'll be on with Stuart Varney tomorrow, 10 a.m. hour Fox Business.

network, check it out. We'll be on same time tomorrow, this show. Have a great one, everybody, and drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do. It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.

You will feel better. I promise. Peace out all. Serenity now. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.

Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.

That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.