Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Small and mid [07.11.2024]

Episode Date: July 11, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Thursday. It's July 11th. It's 2024. And there are days where we say to you, lots to talk about and there are days that really lots to talk about

it's one of those days and in case you don't know this is serious talk on everything that affects you your life your job your industry your money the markets the economy and everything else

under the sun seriously we hope you continue to listen thanks for being with us and if you do not get this radio show in your city we'll post it at gary k.com we'll also post it on our twitter feed which is now x we'll also post it on podcast ops and if you don't get our twitter feed you don't follow us you probably should and if you'd like to email us just be nice if i sound a little bit different today because i'm up in new york

using the iPhone app and so my father's 92, my mother's 91 and you never know what's going to pop up but we consider my brother and I unbelievably lucky

we say that because at that age they are self-sufficient still live in their apartment she cooks for him but it's getting to the you know what I'm saying

when I say that my mom's in the hospital and she's got pulmonary whatever whatever and it's just really old age and you just don't know I think she's going to be okay they have outlived

all their friends and relatives by far, some very, very far. I have met 75-year-old people that can't take care of themselves, so we know how lucky we are, but I must tell you, it's still not easy. It's still not easy. So I'm up here helping out. I finally got to meet my grandson, Reese Daniel, and, And, of course, he was taken to me like there's no tomorrow.

And anyway, it's one of those things. And we appreciate all the input, all the well-wishes. Again, we have a little contest going on because I don't want to be a grandpa, so I'm getting a lot of names. and by the early next week we'll make the decision on what name I'm going to use for Grandpa, but I think we've narrowed it down to a few. So first let me start with away from the market for a second. I think it was nine months ago when we said to you on this show without any knowledge whatsoever. We didn't think Joe Biden was going to be.

the candidate for the presidential election. We never brought up his age. We never brought up any of that. What we brought up was the party and politics and the ability to win or not win and throwing one under the bus and tigers eating their young. And you're seeing

that in droves. There's no loyalty except the power. There's no giving a crap about somebody who won the election for you. It's get rid of them. You're seeing it and I almost feel bad for the guy, even though, as you know, I am no big fan of him or his policies. I believe that he is not going to be the candidate. They are leaking things left and right on him. The media who we have taken to task forever on this show as being a bunch of, how do we put this? It's not almost like they are. They're in their little bubble. They're all buddies and they all attack the same thing, the same way. You know what they're all doing now? They've all turned on him. They're all doing op ed's on them now always with the same line we love you but get the hell out of here of course

they don't use those words but you get the point they are getting celebrities to do the bidding george cluny did not go out on his own uh to do an op-ed on it i can promise you that nothing by accident in washington dc and uh i i don't think he's going to make it to the finish line how they do this I don't know in case you do not know a couple of things that most people don't know is all the money in the pot can only go to Kamala Harris running for the president if not the thing they're going to have to do with all that money is put it in a super pack if they if this does come about my best guess best guess is a primary that said, the reason that would not happen is Kamala Harris.

How do you not have the vice president move up? How do you not have the vice president be front and center at that point? And in case you do not know, and this is a fact that the black vote and Democrats have been closely aligned to the tune of like 90% Well in the last election I believe Biden were in the 70s and now it's down from there and there is a thought process that they can't win the election without the black vote.

Thus, you had Biden go to a black church last week. Again, the pandering piece of crap that he is but also most politicians. So we'll see how it plays out. We're hearing he's got a speech tonight. It's a need, excuse me, a press conference, conference. It's going to be a NATO, whatever press conference and everybody's watching. I believe the die has been cast. I don't think there's going to be any turning back.

The surprise for me now would be if he was up against Trump. And as you know, I'm no fan of either. It's a binary choice, though. It's one or the other. Whoever wins, if it's one or the other, I'll keep my fingers crossed. They do a great job. But we know what another four years are going to be like for Biden. Leave no doubt open borders on purpose. Gargantuan, not big, not large.

Gargantuan growth of government, spending, debt, deficit. reach and controls with rules, regulations, fees, fines, mandates, and now ridiculous insane proposals for taxes going forward. We don't know what we're going to get from Donald Trump. Though in the past, lower taxes, less regulations, those were two things. The rest, I would suggest, is up in the air. Personally, I'm going to continue to wake up, work my butt off to do better for myself, my family, for my clients, for my members, for you. And hopefully one day we find somebody that walks into Washington, D.C., and recognizes what we believe to be front and center,

and that is we the people. government doesn't without our dines and they've forgotten it we are their marks we are their means to their ends

they have proven that with 35 trillion of debt headed to 55 trillion of debt in every way shape and form I wish I could say better things I really do we take no joy

in taking these people on but they have earned the wrath and it's not just me it's the many and it's not just Republicans, it's Democrats it's independence I can't begin to tell you how many people

they recognize me from TV and they'll walk up to me at an airport or in a restaurant and you know what they'll say you're right Gary they all suck that's what I get a lot of last night flying here one of the attendants hey like what you guys do

by the way you're right we're getting a lot of that and it's not about us being right it's about them being wrong we hope things get better up next lots of things going on in the stock market that's up next on this is the one and only

investors edge hi I'm Gary Kalbaum hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge we're not just handsome radio people we manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income,

and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, Call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-59. That's 888-4-2-5-59. That's 888-4-22-5-5-9.

Investment Advisory Services offered through Call Bomb Capital Management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.

Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefit. you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer

to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. Hear that?

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Hey, let me repeat because I think it's important. We take no joy in any of this. We would rather be praising these people. And you do know we have no bias.

When October 7th happened, we think Joe Biden handled it very, very well. We praised him daily on this show. until he and his advisors got together, saw the poll numbers on some of the Muslim community, and all of a sudden wasn't such the champion. When these miserable pieces of crap were doing their thing on campus, by the way, have you noticed they're not doing it anymore? Have you noticed there's no more of that campus stuff going on? He stayed silent.

We don't go for that. So again, we really hope one day, and I don't know if there's somebody out there, I don't know, that they realize it's we the people, that they're just standing in our way. They're just getting in our way. They're the headwind, not the tailwind. I keep reading every day. Another one, I just read about a judge that. let a criminal out, 21 arrests. The last one beat the living hell out of his girlfriend within an inch of her life.

Pictures are bruised and bloody and bloated body from this man. The judge was begged on bail that if he's let out, if he gets out, he will murder the young woman. The judge lowered the bail, enabling them to get out within weeks. The woman, not only, I can't even tell you what this person did and murdered this young girl. I'm reading about these things every day. The coddling of criminals and the ignoring of the victims and the citizenry. every day I'm looking at stupidity. A lot of it coming out of California

from somebody who's the chalk to be a president of the United States that I would not let run a lemonade stand because of how stupid and in plain sight stupid there is from this man. We're looking for somebody who'll come in

and know you need government you need good defense you need good oversight all for it but believing that it is we the people and we need to be respected and that's not happening we'll keep you surprised if anybody

like that shows up we'll be glad to tell you about it ladies and gentlemen we segue So what have we been telling you very often the last few months? Oh, the NASDAQ was up 150, but advanced declines on the NASDAQ were 1,000 up 2,500 down. That's what you've been telling you. What else have we been telling you?

The top seven stocks in the NASDAQ 100 are 50% of the NASDAQ. 100, 33% of the S&P 500. We've been telling you that. And we've been saying to you, well, they better not get those seven because the index will have some problems. It's been going on for a while. What else have we been telling you that all we have owned are those big names and have made pretty good hay on those big names? What else have we been telling you? The rest of the market looks like crap.

Small caps and midcaps, the dead. Comatose. The economically sensitive area? Yuck. Transports. Very weak. A lot of the retail. Trashed.

Oil's bad shape. And the list pretty much goes on and on. What else do we tell you? If anything changes, we'll let you know. and sometimes changes can be slowly. Sometimes changes can happen over time, where we say to you, hey, just letting you know, this is showing up a little bit.

Recently, one of them was gold. We had said to you, gold broke out in February, early March, had a good run to April, but since April has done nothing. But a few days ago, we said it may be starting to come up the right side. Guess what? It's starting to come up the right side. Terrific. Today changes. To what extent? I don't know. Listen to those three words with a contraction.

I don't know. I don't know. I don't know how long it last how far it goes. But I do know when the market's speaking a little bit loud and a little bit clear on changes. And that is today

the NASDAQ was down 364. 2%. While the small caps were up 3.5%. The NASDAQ was down 2%. While the mid-term

caps were up 2% in change. The NASDAQ 100 was down 2.3% while the small caps were up 3% in change. The NASDAQ 100 was down 2.3% while the mid caps were up 2% in change. The advance declines today, wait to you hear that and then the outcome. I'm getting This is the one-only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.

And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, Upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to America is talking.

Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Colbomb It comes highly recommended You're going to feel better if you talk to him And welcome once again to Investors Edge

So With the NASDAQ down 364 And the NASDAQ 100 down 464 The Advanced Declines on the NASDAQ were 31 up, 9 down. What?

Well, what have we been telling you? The market's been selling the advanced declines and buying those select few. Today, the market sold that select few and bought up the names of the advanced declines. Simple as that. So what you had today? In the semis, I want to make sure I give you these numbers correctly before I give them. If you bear with me as it shows up, ladies and gentlemen, and you'll get where we're coming from. On the downside today, these have all been names that have been doing pretty darn well.

And there's not a ton of them. But it's what has been leading and what has been leading in a very, very big way. Lamb Research down 67. KLA 10 Corps 40. Broadcom 39. Costco, 38. Costco's in that top 10. Netflix 25.

Tesla, 22. Facebook, 22. Applied materials, not as large a bigger number, down 17. Excuse me, 14. Arm holdings, 14. Microsoft, almost 12. Synopsis 11. I can go on and on. Qualcomm 9, NXP semi-8. NVIDIA, 7-5.

Adobe 7 Taiwan semi 6 Micron 6 Google almost 6 Apple 5 and Apple's had a good run Dell 5

Amazon almost 5 so let me be a little repetitive here how long it lasts I don't know how far it goes I don't know it just felt like today you know when you

you blow up a balloon and sometimes you blow it up farther than it should go, well, I'm not saying a pin went into the balloon and the whole thing blew up. I'm saying you are holding the end of that balloon and you let it slip and a good chunk came in today. While that money found the advanced declines, the other stuff. Now, what happened early? What have we said to you also on this show? And we meant it. There will be no bad economic numbers going into the election.

Oh, come on, Gary. You're saying the government's lying about their economic numbers? Let me ask you a question back. A government that on purpose has spent $35 trillion more than this supposed to. We now know it's going to 56 trillion. You don't think they'd fudge numbers on. Let me to go one further. Do you know our government over the last two decades have changed the formula on inflation to make it lower than it used to be? Do you know that same government changed the formula on GDP to make it higher than it used to be? Interesting, huh? Anyway, we had said

to you, there won't be any bad economic number. So a great inflation number came in today. Yields tanked again today. The 10-year yield nicely down the 4.1-9-3 at the close today, giving the Fed more room to play catch-up. Remember, they're 5 in a quarter on the little Fed funds doofusiness. we're at less than 4-2 on the 10 year, which counts 10 times more. The fact that a better-than-average chance that they're going to low rates, juice the small in the mids, and sold the extended. Now, when you have a chance, go look at IWM and see what it did today. That's number one.

and you will see beautiful move up the right side back to the highs of the last I don't know six months we want you to keep in mind the IWM is still trading where it did not making this up

January of 21 three and a half years so maybe it's a start of a move up how much we don't know but that's good look technically. The MDY is the midcaps. While it is not up at the highs, the MDY, the high was 558, it closed at 546, good looking move coming up the right side today on the midcaps, and those represent a lot more stocks. What else? Regional banks, we have told you that the

small caps are laden with the regional banks. They were up 4% today. Why would regional banks go up nicely today? Yield's really coming down. That helped. What have we been wary about? We've been telling you to avoid housing. Why?

But acting like crap. A very strong housing move today. Why? Interest rates. Tanking. Simple as that. Housing related, strong. Economically sensitive stocks, strong. Financials, strong. With the move in yields down, the dollar goes along with it.

Guess what? Had a good day today. Commodities. So better day for the oils. They still don't look that great. bounced up nicely and that's part of the equation and some of the metals and mining had a pretty good day today but most importantly everything that wasn't working had a great day today I'm in the midst of my scans we'll see what shows up but on the whole IWM MDY representing small and midcaps we have no idea whether it lasts we have no idea where whether it's fleeting, just that was a darn good move today, as the money flew out of the areas that have been strong as all heck.

And our job at this juncture is we know the great growth is in the areas that are getting hit. They got very extended. We'll measure them. We'll stay on top of them. And we'll see how they go. And may I state for the record, just because Apple drives. A few bucks today. Stock just broke out at 200,

closed at almost 228 today. So it's still up big. But other things gave back a heck of a lot. Other things not as great. And I can guarantee you the people that keep going on TV and just buy the AI stocks to the moon aren't going to listen to Gary.

We're going to tell you something changed today. we'll keep you abreast of it day by day inch by inch sector by sector stock by stock they'll keep touting you come hecker high water we'll say to you we'll see how

it plays out changes changes that's what we got today and let me say it again not sure how long it lasts or how far it goes but the areas that were debt

woke up the ETFs for the small and mid the small back to the tips mids coming up the right side up next what else

I'm Gary this is the one only investors edge guys it's no use putting it off the best time for an underwear refresh is now Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker.

The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast,

might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Let me be a little bit repetitive. Because I think it comes down to the power of bigness and those seven stocks being 50% of the NASDAQ 100 and 33% of the S&P. Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and Vidaia. Top 10, you throw in TISLA, Costco. I'm not sure Netflix's top 10. Broadcom is, we think we've covered it. They all came in today.

Apple down 2%. Broadcom, 2.5. Amazon 2%, Costco 5%, Google 3%, Microsoft 2%, Facebook, 4%. Netflix, 4%. Nvidia.

6%. Tesla 9% with the advanced declines 31 up 9 down on the NASDAQ that's what we mean by the bigness seven stocks taken down an index

while the rest take the up the index the exact opposite of what we have been seeing which has me repeating again don't know how long it lasts don't know how far it goes we love growth

but only when it's working. I can tell you small and mid-growth today. They were working. I've been scanning them, not finding much there, though. Why? They're just not set up for great just yet. But if they do, we'll let you know. But again, as a whole, and that's what I wanted to bring up today.

As a whole, the smalls and the mids. IWM, M-D-Y, it's only one day, but could be one of those important technical analysis days. I think I've explained myself well. And I think we've explained ourselves well on the bigness of the select few. The air came out of them today and into other areas. By the way, the Dow was only up 32. But Home Depot was up 9. Why?

Housing and housing related. But Apple was down 5 and Amazon was down 4. There's your 9 on Home Depot. Microsoft was down 10. Apple Amazon Microsoft. AmGem was up 4. Caterpillar was up 2. McDonald's finally bounced 4.

There's your 10 the other way. That's why the Dow didn't do SWAT today. The transports, we have been blasting them on a daily basis. They got a lift today of about 2%. Not the end-all be-all, but why would they go up? Interest rates? The Fed and their potential. And we'll see if this potential emergence of the small and mids leads to an uptrend.

Remember what we try to do here. We're looking for launching pads that turn into uptrends. That's all we're looking for. There is potential that there's a launching pad today for the small and the mids. and on the big stuff pretty good potential that it hit a point in time where what have we been saying to you

some of them have gone vertical kind of normal in a sense there's your story tonight's webcast will be quite the quite I must state for the record not sure what's coming from it yet

yes I do and there you go yields down potential for Fed to cut even more, if not guaranteeing a turn. Other areas crypto ain't happening. Still in a void. No changes there. We mentioned to you the gold, but I don't want to go further than that.

Because why? There's a lot of stocks that remain in just crappy shape. Crappy shape. And just because they have a good day, does that mean in any way, shape, or form that everything just turns A-OK? Tomorrow will be another day. And, oh, by the way, I believe another inflation number is coming out tomorrow. There won't be any bad economic numbers going into the election, ladies and gentlemen.

and by the way we take no joy in saying that the socks the strong semiconductor index was down 205 today 3.5%

so again a lot of jello moving on the plate for those that have owned the Vanguard S&P 500 for 20 years you can ignore everything I am saying to you today. By the way, I mean that. Every now and then, I will get

a call from somebody. Hey, Gary, I'm interested in you managing my money. Okay? Well, I've been doing it myself and I'm getting old and here's what I own. And you know what I tell them? Keep doing it yourself. That's all. People that have owned the S&P for 20 years. Cool. All right, 6.30 tonight. You can turn on Fox and watch the press conference. We'll be a Vimport. We'll be back tomorrow. You have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. Until tomorrow, stay well, be well. I'm going to take a nap. Good night, all. get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their

innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000, airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.