Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - SNAP BACK [06.16.2025]

Episode Date: June 16, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

At CVS, it matters that we're not just in your community, but that we're part of it. It matters that we're here for you when you need us, day or night, and we want everyone to feel welcomed and rewarded. It matters that CVS is here to fill your prescriptions and here to fill your craving for a tasty and, yeah, healthy snack. At CBS, we're proud to serve your community because we believe where you get your medicine matters. So visit us at CVS.com or just come by our family. store. We can't wait to meet you. Store hours vary by location. Investors Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary

Coltbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is June 16th, 2025. It would be a Monday. Hope you having a good day. Dads, hope you had a good Father's Day. Hope you had a good weekend. As always, lots to cover. And right now, just a ton to cover. Serious talk on everything that affects you, whether it's the markets, the economy, your job, your industry,

wars, tariffs, Immigration We'll have a segment of We Told You So Today on the show Because as you know I am Mr. Logic I'm the most logical man

Out there And Our Logic got another one Very much right We'll get to that in a little bit But first if you don't get this radio show in your city We'll post it at GaryK.com Post it on our Twitter feed, which is now

Exxin. If you don't follow us on next, you should. And if you'd like to email us, just be nice. Because we'll be nice back as long as you don't love Hamas and all that. So over the weekend, missiles reign over Israel and Iran.

Buildings destroyed. People dying. More threats. over the weekend you had oil prices spike again and we had a bad day in the market on Friday off of this

and I will freely admit it to you that on Saturday I'm thinking we're going to open up down 500 down points why just how I explained it to you're watching it on TV right? You're seeing what's going on right is worry about what's next.

Will it escalate? And then, don't ask me why. You know, we have this little motto as far as markets. It's not the news. It's how markets react to the news. How many times have I told you in bare markets,

good news will be ignored and even go down in price and bad news in bare markets will just crush the stocks or stocks in bull markets or bullish phases

good news will be bought up with a fervor bad news won't go down that's just the way markets work I get that asked that all the time when people are perplexed in the markets. If those numbers were so good on earnings, why is the stock down 10%.

I get that all the time. If the number is so bad, how's the stock up 10%. Just recently, Oracle announced a whopping 4% earnings growth. They did say they'll accelerate some, but it had an outside. move. It's not the news. It's how the markets react to the news. So I don't know what drove things. There's been rumor of this, that, and the other thing that Iran is looking to get a way out of all this. And then you hear differently, I don't know. All I can tell you is oil prices down a buck 37 today, a buck 30 and change. All I know the Dow at one time today was up.

give me a second I'll give you the number at one time today 42707 that's 190 was up 507 at one time today it still finished up 317 go figure I don't know why and the funny thing at 3 let me make sure I get the Dow rallied 50 points in the last minute of the day

it was actually only up 260 57 and 50 points in one minute. S&P up 56, NASDAQ, up freaking 294 points. Now we know going into today that the semiconductors have been relatively strong, but Friday got hit because the market got hit. They just bounced back today like nothing happened Friday. 294 in the NASDAQ 306 NASDAQ 100.

the semiconductor index up 155. The transports that got hit hard on Friday were up 216. Advanced declines pretty darn good. Financial strong. Just good. Stocks came down. Drug stocks were down. A few other things were down.

But overall, whatever you saw this weekend, market could care less. Today, will that change tomorrow? Beats the heck out of us. But I'm going to give you the same thing I gave you early last week. The Dow's not close because of United Health is 2,000 Dow points to the downside,

but if the S&P can break above 6147, that's the high of February. That shall invite. more buying, I would suspect. If the NASDAQ can break above 20,004, that's about 1% in change. If the NASDAQ 100 can break above 22-22-2-2. No, that's really, that was the high. 2-2-2-2-2.

2.2, 2. Yeah. Those would be moving above the high. highs and moving above the highs usually invites more highs will keep you abreast of the situation. What we surprised about today, yes. Yes, as I said, I was figuring we were going to walk into a 500 point drop and it was a good day. In fact, the open today, at the open, at the open, the Dow in the first let's see 42-429 was up 200 before you can blink again admittedly was up 507 only finished up 317 with a nice little 50-point pop at the end of the uh the market day

but it all counts and as I look around my screens retail had a good day airlines had a good day Of course, oil prices dropped. Transports. I mentioned the semis. The semis are strong as an ox. That's all I can tell you. And if I give you the semiconductor, let's see, I really don't have it a resistance point. I can give you the high of last week, but that's not real lot of resistance. 5302, we close at 524.

What I can tell you, you got. resistance all the way up to 5,900, today advanced microdevices up 10. This has been one of the weaklings. Volume, by the way, was 99 million average dailies 43. What happened there? On a rumor, supposedly they got something with Amazon. And I was looking around, can anybody confirm anything? Why is the stock up 10 on something that can't be confirmed? I don't know. Don't know. That was the story. Oh, by the way, but has not received confirmation of it, but we're still up 10. It's not the news.

It's how things react to the news. Strong move in Goldman Sachs today, J.P. Morgan, the Big Banks, we told you they were acting much, much better. And just overall, good freaking tone. I can't even come up with anything wrong today because gold was down. That's okay. Oil was down. That's okay. The drug stocks were down. They're defensive. No biggie. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

Welcome to my world. It's a fun place to be. Other movers today, let's see, Facebook was up 20. They announced that they are going to do advertising and do some charging on their WhatsApp. I don't have WhatsApp, by the way. I have Instagram, but I don't use it. I just look at things and I never post. Though I may think about doing that one day.

I have a Facebook account, but I never post. I'm on Twitter, and I always get asked, I never really talk about the stock market on Twitter. And I have to tell you, I see a lot of other people in my business posting on Twitter left and right. I don't know how they do it. I'll explain that up next in the rest of the market. And I told you so.

That'll be later. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

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Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Let's see. headline Israel underestimates Iran's military strength missile attacks kill 8 more

sirens shakes and sonic booms fourth day of battle iron dome tested like never before U.S. Embassy damaged in Tel Aviv regime fights for survival now Tehran wants to negotiate with a question mark market didn't care

again and I can't say this and we're saying this because when we go into the next bear market Wall Street will tell you everything's okay the news is good as we go into a bare market we want you to remember that it's so important it's vital remember in bare markets you get no help from Wall Street. Always be wary of the people that have to be fully invested 100% of the time. Are they ever going to tell you to get out? Hell no. That's why we do what we do. We stay on top of these markets and we stay away from bare markets. And while the markets rallied up, the home builders haven't. For instance, the managed care stocks destroyed, United Health and others. defense stocks they were big time up on Friday they got slammed today

Lockheed down 19 bucks today Northrop Grumman down 18 why would defense socks skyrocket Friday and blasted to the downside on Monday they're still fighting going on it's not the news it's how things react to the news. Simple as that. You know what else I'm getting? I'm getting the feel

in certain very important areas that the economy's not that great. They're going to report a 3% quarter for this quarter, but that's because they're getting back from what they took away because of trade in last quarter. You know, I'm in the airports all the time.

Almost every week now. And I go to the Delta Lounge at LaGuardia or here in Orlando, and I can tell business is down. I've been on flights that were half full, and we're talking flights that are usually full. I speak to my Vegas peeps. Vegas is very weak right now. Just getting, we already know about the housing business. Fantasy land's coming down. inventory is skyrocketed

it's not going to be like 08 but it's in the midst we'll be watching remember what we have told you even though we know what you hear whose rich dad poor dad is calling for a crash Harry Dent calling for a crash and even if it doesn't crash he'll say he was right

there's no chance we're going to crash unless Mr. No-it-all in the White House does that 145% tariff again and does another liberation day. But absent that, the only way we go into bare markets, the economy's got a crack. And all I can tell you right now, the market doesn't see it. I've never seen a recession or a contraction of importance when the financials are acting well.

the semiconductors are definitely acting well here. So stay tuned. Very important. Now, there can be areas in trouble. Just remember, industry after industry after industry, different things. What else? The big banks, as I stated. Goldman today was up 18, finished up 14, and looks like it's going to try to go back to the old highs of February.

GP Morgan up 540 looks like it's going to try. try to get back to the highs of February. We'll see. The one volume was kind of light today, but just good moves. Also, the retail, not bad today. And I got to bring up a stock, and I don't usually do this. You know who the big short guy is, Michael Burry? I guess they have to report hedge fund things. He sold off everything and bought Estee Lauder. This is like weeks ago. I think it was 50 bucks at the time. It's 74, up another seven bucks today. I'm going to have to start

following this guy. I like following people who show they got game. Wow. I just noticed that. Very good. And by the way, yes, they'll order earnings down 33,

revenue down 10. Maybe they got a things are better. Bitcoin. Hanging in there. Failed a little breakout. Axe okay in here. No complaint. Gold pulled back today because it's like the anti-market.

Markets up, gold down type of thing. And our dollar was up a little bit. Gold looks fine. As long as GLD stays above 302.85, it's in good stead. That's a 50-day move and average. The gold miners look okay. Just normal pullback here. China had a better day.

And that's getting a little bit interesting. Some of the names. When you have a chance, you're going to look at FUTU tonight. FUTU Holdings. Investment Bank are big earnings in sales. Eight-month trading range trying to bust out. We'll see if it does. And I'd like to complain about something in the market today,

but I don't have much. volume just remember volume in the market is conviction we like moves on volume especially the upside moves I've seen plenty of downside moves on no volume next we told you so so we told you so when the president was doing those crazy ridiculous tariffs we told you that if the they don't change up these tariffs, they're going to crash the market worse. Up next. I got another I told you so. And much more. This is the one on the investor's edge. This message is brought to you by KolaGard. If you ever printed out directions and hoped you didn't miss a turn, it may be time for you to screen for colon cancer.

Luckily, things are a lot easier these days, even screening for colon cancer. When caught early, colon cancer is treatable in nine out of ten people. With more options than ever, it's key to start screening at 45. if you are at average risk. The Coligard test is non-invasive, requires no special prep or time off, and it ships right to your door, so you can use it in the privacy of your own home. With just three simple steps, setup, sample, and ship, completing your Colagard test is easier than finding the right track on your mixtape. If you're 45 or older, then at average risk, ask your doctor about the Colagard test available by prescription only. Learn more or request a prescription at colagard.com slash podcast. Do not use the Colagard products if you have had adenomas,

which are a type of colon polyp that can sometimes become cancer. inflammatory bowel disease or other hereditary syndromes, a personal or first-degree family history of colorectal cancer, or a positive result from another colon cancer screening method within that test's recommended screening interval. Coligard results should be interpreted with caution. A positive test result does not confirm the presence of cancer. Patients with a positive test result should be referred for a colonoscopy.

A negative test result does not confirm the absence of cancer. Patients with a negative test result should discuss with their doctor when they need to be tested again. False positives and false negative results can occur. Do you still trust the corporate media? I know I don't. Get the real facts. The inside story behind the scene.

in the Senate and the White House and the U.S. Supreme Court. Subscribe to Verdict with Ted Cruz on the IHeart Radio app by clicking the attached link today. Paid for by Truth and CouragePack. Not authorized by any candidate or candidates committee. Truth and CouragePack.com. OnDec is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, OnDex loans up to $400,000 help make it happen fast.

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America is talking. Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him.

So, we had told you that they had better get off that tariff crap or else we think that he never did the pause and by the way I believe the date is the 90 days is July 9th there is no way he's going to unpause but we believe the Dow at 425

would be at 3,4-5 right now if not worse that was a worldwide tax we might as well have voted January it yelling in as the president of the United States with those tariffs. That's how bad they were. Global tax.

And we told you they're going to have to knock those out. There's no way. They were crashing the markets. And of course, the apologist will tell you it was all planned out. Horse crap, it was planned out. He made a huge

mistake and to his credit, corrected it. I'll give him credit for that. Well, we told yourself again. And for all you people that voted for the president on deportation, we told you so.

There is no way in hell. They're going to be doing all those deportings. Oh, they're going to deport. But there's no way in hell. And what are they doing? Just like he did all these exemptions on tariffs? Just letting you know they're exempting farms, hotels. Do you know why? The farmers and the hotel owners told them,

you ain't getting any food? And we're shutting our hotels down. So he's put an exemption on them. And other leisure businesses. Do you know what's next? We're telling you sell right now. A crap load of construction, delivery, Uber and Lyft drivers, here we come. Now they're talking a big game now.

The president came out. We're going to amp up the deporting, especially in the blues. No, he's not. He's going to exempt the hell out of it because he has to. You see, Mr. Logic says, and by the way, I don't. blame the president. Just remember what's happened in the past years. Biden let them in.

Like crazy. People have been coming here illegally for a very long time. And you know what's happened recently? And you get to decide whether it's good or bad. We're reading real true stories of men who have been here for 20 years working, paying taxes have work permits getting picked up and put in jail or whatever they, wherever they put them, before deporting them. You think that's the last thing? It's not his fault.

It's been the system forever. It's been the system forever. People just have come in and they're getting these jobs. And if you keep doing these sweeps, they're going to be shutting hotels. Uber's going to lose a ton of drivers, so is Lyft. Construction, look out. And my commentary has nothing to do with illegal versus legal. I'm just stating facts.

And why am I bringing up? Because I got news for you. It affects markets in the economy. So letting you know they got that wrong to their credit. They're changing for those that voted for him on deportation. you ain't get in your way. The good news is they're getting rid of the crooks.

They're getting rid of the criminals. But they're going to have to do some adjusting to logic, to logic. And I know there's people, and I don't call them hardcore. They have their beliefs that believe all illegals should be sent out of the country. And I'm not going to argue it. Who might have argued your belief?

But the problem is, It can't be done because of how the system is. Unless you want everything shot to hell. We'll keep you up to date on it. But we told you so. It's the way of the world. Missed the logic. Just logic.

Told you so. In the news, did you see this? I'm sure you did. This ass clown who's going to be spending, his rest of his life in a six by nine murdered and some people in Minnesota, people that were in politics. I'm a little weirded out because he's being charged with murder two. Murder one is when you plan it out, but they're doing murder two. What are they morons in Minnesota? Are they insane? Are they insane? It's tough.

world out there to be in any kind of politics right now, ladies and gentlemen. I know is a fact that a lot of these politicians have big time security right now, and there's a lot of threats. Remember when I told you that I spoke to some operatives about running for the house seat? They talked me off that ledge, I could tell you. They scared me straight. I like my life. What can I tell you? In the news, there was a military parade, and as usual, a bunch of morons are saying it was bad. What? To honor our brave young men and women is bad? I'm sorry.

I'm going to disagree. I told you one time I went paintball with my sons. I got hit with one of those things. I got a welt on my side. I was whining and complaining like a little baby. But these military, they go into harm's way. I've been to events for building homes for heroes, and I've met men and women that have no arms, no legs,

missing eyes, and they have a better outlook on life than people I know that have everything by the you-know-wats. They risked their lives for us. What a great thing to honor them. Oh, it was like North Korea. No, it wasn't. So many people are weird. And then, of course, there's these protesters.

Do you know what they're doing now? They change from Palestine to Iran. Do you know they were holding up posters for Iran now? They're professional protesters. Talk about the insanity. They're professional protesters. They want to feel part of something and they see a bunch of people in a street.

Oh, I'm going to join. Hey, show me Iran on a map. Uh, what? Show me Palestine on a map. A lot of crazy going on. And then there's Greta, this little twerk, said she was kidnapped. How ironic. Said she was kidnapped by Israel.

Kidnapped. While people that were really kidnapped are still being held hostage. Just another. Just another. Where do these people get their ideas from, their thoughts from? Let him go live in Iran and see how good it is there. Try being a woman in uncovering your face in Iran. Yeah, that's the ticket.

That all was in the news this weekend. I think people can protest whatever they want, but be logical. Up next. Tomorrow. What do I think? This is Investors. edge. This message is brought to you by Colagard. If you ever printed out directions and I hoped you didn't miss a turn, it may be time for you to screen for colon cancer. Luckily, things are a lot easier

these days, even screening for colon cancer. When caught early, colon cancer is treatable in nine out of ten people. With more options than ever, it's key to start screening at 45 if you are at average risk. The Colagard test is non-invasive, requires no special prep or time off, and it ships right to your door so you can use it in the privacy of your own home. With just three simple steps, Set up, sample, and ship, completing your Colagard test is easier than finding the right track on your mixtape. If you're 45 or older and at average risk, ask your doctor about the Colagard test available by prescription only. Learn more or request a prescription at colagard.com slash podcast. Do not use the Colagard products if you have had adenomas, which are a type of colon polyp

that can sometimes become cancer, inflammatory bowel disease or other hereditary syndromes, a personal or first-degree family history of colorectal cancer, or a positive result from another colon cancer screening method within that test's recommended screening interval. Colagard results should be interpreted with caution. A positive test result does not confirm the presence of cancer. Patients with a positive test result should be referred for a colonoscopy. A negative test result does not confirm the absence of cancer. Patients with a negative test result should discuss with their doctor when they need to be tested again. False positives and false negative results can occur. Do you still trust the corporate media? I know I don't. Get the real

facts, the inside story behind the scenes in the Senate and the White House and the U.S. Supreme Court. Subscribe to Verdict with Ted Cruz on the IHeart Radio app by clicking the attached link today. Paid for by Truth and Courage Pack. Not authorized by any candidate or candidates committee. Truth and Couragepack.com. Cashflow crunch. OnDak's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it.

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On deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans an amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

Before we get back into the market, let me just make another comment. Anybody watched the U.S. Open? I watched it with my father yesterday. and Saturday felt good to see professionals leaving balls in the rough now you know how I feel

they made that course did you see some of the greens it's like playing Gooney golf anyway what a great win I love when somebody actually earns the win somebody that's never been in the position

before this 34-year-old. They called him a journeyman, even though he came second to Roy McElroy in the players this year in a playoff. I think he's had a couple of top tens. They called him a journeyman, and he started out with five bogeys, hit the ball that took a shot,

hit the flag, and bounced 50 yards down the hill. Total bad luck. Imagine a golfer's psyche that has never been in that position. That's five bogeys on the front nine and looks like he's out of it. And what does he do? Comes back and he comes back

and he comes back to where he's tied. And then he stripes one on 17. Stripes. So 300 and something yard hole within 15 feet. Two putts for a birdie goes up. And then on the 18th hole hits a 65 foot putt. like he placed it in the hole and wins 4.3 million

exemptions up the wazoo for the masters and every big tournament for years I love that that was great to see and did you see like people veterans like Adam Scott shot nine over and I believe he was tied for the lead at the turn and all the greats

splat anyway, congratulations so J.J. Spahn is his name. That was great to see. And lastly, in our sports, well, two more things. I believe Florida's up

3-2 in the hockey. Boy, they gave away a couple games going. Tonight's basketball. I believe that's 2-2, right? ESPN.com. No, that's not ESPN.com. let's see what we got going there tonight yeah 830

2-2 back in okayc big win by okayc and now that's your sports for the day it's not the news it's how the market reacts to the news I have no idea what the market does tomorrow but boy after Friday a yeoman's job today

of taking out a certain finger and shooting it back at whatever happened Friday in the market. And in spite of, there's a lot of crap still going on between Israel and Iran, oil prices came down. The market gapped up. Your handsome and buffed toast thought we would walk in today to a 500-point drop. The opposite happened.

Could have been better, could have been a lot worse. New Yearly high lists, things like Darden restaurants, Darden restaurants. New Yearly High. For instance, got some restaurant stocks. The semiconductors, strong. They were dead.

Huge bear market into the crash for the semis. Now they're in the midst. Massive, massive base between 4,8,500 and 55500 going back from September to February.

You're now in the middle. Had a change. chance to really pull it back Thursday, back to what I call support areas. Instead, jammed right back up today, even with the weaker names like AMD on news that we don't even know if it's real or not. It's not the news. It's how things react to the news. The Big Banks, Goldman, was hit hard Thursday. Right back up on, excuse me, Friday, right back up to Today, J.P. Morgan, very important. Edges above a little range. May I repeat, not much bad happens if they stay in shape or even improve. And it wasn't just the big banks today. It was things like

interactive brokers, LPL financial, Ameriprise Financial. Some of the investment banks, transports had a better day after getting trouts. And I actually liked the way retail acted, though still plenty of retail stocks in bare markets. Pleasantly surprised today. And may I repeat, if the highs can get taken out, and we're like 2% away, that will invite higher prices.

That's how bullish phases work. We are not guaranteeing that. We're not even predicting that. We will be ready for it. Technology stocks, not just the semis, the AI, do I dare say this nuclear crap with no sales? Yeah, that irritates the heck out of me. The quantum stocks with no sales, getting bids.

Getting bids, don't be the last one in, please. Remember, no sales companies, I don't care what they sell or what they do. always go back to where they came from if nothing changes. I can't say that any louder. There's a lot of money to lose if you're not careful. We talk quality here and quality means big earnings, big sales growth, great products, great margins, and that doesn't guarantee that works either. Bond market, still cooperative.

The Fed, Wednesday, they don't matter much right now. And that's that. Until tomorrow, you have a great evening drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do, quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better.

I promise they will be well. Thanks for joining. Same time tomorrow. Peace out. By the way, we're off on Thursday. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryK.com. Do you still trust the corporate media? I know I don't. Get the real facts, the inside story behind the scenes in the Senate and the White House and the U.S. Supreme Court. Subscribe to Verdict with Ted Cruz on the Iheart radio app by clicking the attached link today. Paid for by Truth Encourage Pack. Not authorized by any candidate or candidates committee. Truthancouragepack.com.

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