Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - SOFTWARE STOCKS CRUSHED [03.05.2024]

Episode Date: March 5, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

At Arizona State University, we're bringing world-class education from our globally acclaimed faculty to you. Earn your degree from the nation's most innovative university online. That's a degree better. Learn more at ASUonline.asu.org. Investors Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Kaltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's, uh, that's right.

I was out yesterday. So today is Tuesday, March 5th, 2024. And before we get going, want to thank Adam Sartan for doing the show for us. Yesterday we had a little appointment that we had to take care of, you know, a little scheduling thing. Hope you having a good day. Since Tuesday, I wasn't here yesterday. I hope you had a good weekend. We have a bunch to cover.

One of our great attributes here, one of our great attributes is being in front of changes in the market. One of our great attributes. When certain things are topping out, the ability to see them, the ability to know what's happening, the ability to get the heck out of the way is very important. and when we see things topping in the market, we never know what it's going to turn into. In 2022, when we called tops in the growth stocks, we didn't know they would crash. And they basically crashed. So in a couple of moments, we're going to talk about a very important technology area

that's under serious distribution here and getting worse. by the day, notwithstanding, there's some important earnings reports still to come out, and we'll see what happens. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.

We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us, you should just put our name in there. And you can email me, all you got to do is be nice. That's that. And as you know,

this is serious talk on everything that affects you. Serious talk on everything. affects you from the economy, jobs, the markets, the Morlocks in D.C. Go look up Morlocks and what they were and everything else under the sun. So I just want to start out today. In case you didn't know, it's Super Tuesday. But really, they should change the name to Super Tuesday. they should really change it for this election to nauseating Tuesday. As we get to choose between Joe Biden, the worst president of all time, against Donald Trump, who, let me put it best.

I can count on one hand good policies by Donald Trump when he was president. I can fill up a couple of books on nausea from Donald Trump. Joe Biden, I couldn't even put one policy on my finger. One good policy. And I think I have an encyclopedia on him of what nauseates me. There's a laundry list for that man. At least Trump lowered taxes, which is good. less regulations, which is good.

We like those. He did try to do something on the border, at least, which is good. We'll give him his due on that. The latest on Biden, he's blaming businesses for high prices. I actually thought it was the Putin price hike. Now it's business's fault. Didn't you know? Just want to let you know. Rich, wealthy Americans are tax cheats, according to Joe Biden.

And now businesses are just doing nothing but gouging you. It has nothing to do with higher input prices. It has nothing to do with mandatory higher minimum wages. It has nothing to do with anything. It wasn't the... When gas went up, it was... It was the Putin price hike. Nothing to do with Joe Biden.

He's perfect. Anyway, I repeat, it's not Super Tuesday. It's nauseating Tuesday. I'm sick to my stomach. This is who we're choosing on and, hey, such as life. And just so you know, before you get mad at me, I respect every single one of you and who you are voting for. I don't stand in that way God bless you

we all have our choices in life and that's that we leave it at that the only thing I don't understand about certain people how do you vote for people like Alexander Acacia Cortez

or Bernie Sanders to be representing your district or state control freak Marxist I don't know what to tell you. Anyway, we'll leave it at that. What else I want to talk about today? You know, I'm getting no questions.

Interesting. I'm not getting any elderly ladies that I don't know. Calling me up and asking me about Apple and Apple stock. Interesting. But I am getting calls from elderly ladies asking me about buying Bitcoin. Isn't that interesting how things work? No, no, no, I'm not making this up. I'm getting calls from people. I don't know. People I have no clue about. People asking about Bitcoin after it skyrocketed. Just letting you know. But not Apple. Do you know why?

because Apple stock is in its own private bare market. Bearish phase, downtrend, whatever you want to call it. It's not lighting up like a pinball machine. It's not going up 20% in five minutes. In fact, Apple stock broke the 200-day moving average, the longer term, broke that $180 mark that we told you about. That was of import. and is down 10 bucks this week down to 170.

And we're hearing news about in China, iPhone sales were down for the first six weeks like 30% or something. Nobody's asking about that. Isn't it interesting? Price moves people's emotions, and that's when they get in big, big trouble. We're not saying you should be buying Apple. It's in a bare market.

But when something is in the trees and has gone vertical, what have we warned you about GameStop when it did that? And others. And we're not saying that the crypto is not going to the moon. We're not saying that. We're not saying it's not going to double and quadruple even from here. We're just saying, always know we're thinking. have come from and please be smart. That's all. It's simple. Just please be smart. And no, if you decide to buy something

that's doubled in a week, you've got some risk. And I don't think people really recognize that. I really don't. I think people do lose their minds. Don't lose your mind. Tesla, Well, one plus one certainly equals two. First off, we have told you about Apple. We've been told you about Tesla. China's deliveries are much lower than expected. The lowering of prices continues. And there's your story.

Versus some of these artificial intelligence semiconductor companies that are raising their estimates on, much stronger demand than expected. Tesla has to lower prices, which lowers margins, which lowers profits, which lowers stocks. There's your dynamic, ladies and gentlemen. And that's why we tell you, A, number one, always watch your stocks, but B, always know about demand and supply. The price for use, Teslas are way down now. demand

companies like Ford they ain't producing electric vehicles like they did hurts no more electric vehicles nobody wants them and remember you have an industry that

our wonderful control freaks in D.C. We're giving away our tax dollars to buy these cars up next we'll expound and then today I'm Gary this is the one only investor's edge Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs,

will carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital, management. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with

pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach egg every time that I eat. And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point,

we can probably identify something that we can change. Here the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick podcast for all you true crime fans. The case of the missing Reese's. It was me at the store with my mouth. Motive? Um, they're Reese's. What was I going to do? Stop myself. Tune in next time to see if I do it again. Spoiler, I will. Wow, that had everything. Reeses, suspense, reeses. OnDec is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment,

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You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. and welcome once again to Investors Edge Next

A gold In case you don't know We mentioned it on Friday yesterday Gold did indeed move into Basically broke out of everything And we'll see where it takes us Had another update today We'll see what happens from there

Gold miners Are much weaker than the gold relatively, but it played a little catch-up over the last two or three days. But still looks there. Next, software stocks. Now, we're going to give a disclaimer. After the close, one of the important software names called CrowdStrike reported their earnings. This is one of these security software companies. As I write this, CrowdStrike was down $16 today to $297, but is up 50 bucks in the aftermarket on their earnings.

This is one of those software security stocks. Before the close today, they were beaten a living heck out of software stocks. Here is what I would have been saying. Before CrowdStrike. You ready? I've got 50 to 75 software names that have either topped, to topping your topping with some just absolutely done in bare markets of differing levels. It started last week.

We've had some real bad reactions to some. names and this is possibly a warning shot possibly a warning shot. We bring this up because, remember this is what we're saying before CrowdStrike. We're bringing this up because in 22, this is how the tops occurred. Up trends, flatten out, trade wide and loose, break the 50 day. report earnings, get smoked. That's what we would have been saying. The next line we would have been saying,

we're now very wary of software stocks. Anything below the 50-day moving average is off our screen. And may I state for the record, there are a lot of them. Now, after CrowdStrike reports, this is my addendum. Let's see if CrowdStrike helps them out tomorrow. How's that? Without a doubt, they'll bounce.

Without a doubt, they will bounce. Leave no doubt they will bounce tomorrow off of this. First off after getting just beaten up badly. And probably the most important software security name, as of this second, Upstrong, even though, by the way, they beat estimates, but it's not like they blew them out. They raised estimates, not by a ton, but we only deal with what the market thinks. So we're just letting you know, as I look to my left at the screen of all these breaks and software and some other things,

CrowdStrike better save the day tomorrow. Or this is a group that's going by the wayside and not the most unimportant. group going by the wayside. There's your software. Now let's get back to crypto. We are never going to tell you what to do. Just be careful. That's all we're saying. The moves in some of these stocks, not the crypto, but the stocks that are involved with them, 10% in a day, 20% in a day. micro strategy today was down 21%. And you're ready for this? And I'm not making this up.

It was down $283 today to $151. It's up $60 in the aftermarket. They're trying to tell us, these are good things to be invested in. And they're trying to tell us, oh, this is not a bubble. No, it's not a bubble. An inanimate object that has no sales, no earnings. Oh, but there's a bunch of ETFs that you can buy in it. It's not a bubble.

That's what they're telling us. Okay, for the sake of believing them, just be careful. Know what you're dealing with, know what you're getting involved in. Because if you're on the wrong side of the trade, you can lose your R so quick. your head will spin. I have no idea what it's going to do to mark. Well, it's up 60. Make that 55 bucks in the aftermark.

Just drop $5. But again, I want to repeat, there's no bubble. Everything is A-OK. I just want you to remember when Bitcoin crashed. You remember that? There's only a year and change ago. It had crashed. Where were these people?

Doldrums. We're just letting you know. that's the Bitcoin. The artificial intelligence, I have to tell you, the NASDAQ was down 268 points today. It was down, I think, at one time, maybe 340. Let me see. 15862 at the lows, 3877, about 340.

With the NASDAQ down 268, NVIDIA is up $8 today and AMD was up. Super Micro, which has been just insane because they were added to the S&P yesterday. Well, it was announced over the weekend, the stock soared. Today hit a low of 976. We're not making this up. 976. It closed at 1,097.

120 points by the close and is up another 20 in the aftermarket. Be careful. We just ask you. to be careful. If you were on the wrong side of these trades, let me repeat, you're losing your arse. Don't lose your arse. Up next, we got some more for you. This is one and only investors edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jay Goodman, host of Beyond the Script, the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CBS Pharmacists.

Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like I get a stomach ache every time that I eat and it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication. And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeartRadio.

Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Reese's peanut butter cups. They go perfectly with music. Podcasts. And welcome back to the show. Even nature sounds. Oh, and the thing where someone crinkles tissue and whispers at you. Hello. Look, I'm not here to judge what you listen to.

I'm here to judge you for not eating Reese's while you listen to it. Reeses. Ashley, go back to the nature sounds. Nice. Yeah, that's really nice. On Deck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps. OnDEC's loans up to $400,000

help make it happen fast. Rated A-plus by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five-star trust pilot reviews. On-Dec delivers funding you can count on. Apply in minutes at on-deck.com. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by On-Dec or Celtic Bank.

On-Dec does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval. You're listening to... America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with... The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy.

With Gary Colbub. It becomes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. I feel like some things bear repeating. So let me repeat. Please be careful. You got that? Just want you to be careful.

If you are on the wrong side, even one day on the wrong side, actually even one hour on the wrong side. side of some of these moves. They're holy crap moments. Again, we are not telling you what to do. We're just advising, be smart. Go look where something has come from. Go see how far it has gone. Go see where it is in comparison to the norm. If you don't know what that means, you may not want to be playing this. I want to remind you that the number one rule of the markets should be protect your capital first, advance your capital second. Because if you don't protect your capital first, you may not have any capital to advance. And I have to make sure you know while the market's good,

we will have another bare market again. Overall bare market. We are not in an overall bare market, but we may have just seen a big top on a lot of software names, if not worse. Notwithstanding, hey, crowd strikes up big in the after market.

And the AI stuff finished well today. Let me repeat again. micro strategy which is one of these it's almost like a hedge fund for bitcoin now was down $283 today 21% after going up strong recently remember I said it was up 60 bucks in the

aftermarket it's now only up 42 it just dropped $18 in minutes the Bitcoin itself which will not trade as much I'm going to give you an ET called iBit reflects the price of bitcoin hit a high today of 3969 a low of 3403 last i looked what is that 14 15 percent maybe a little more 39 69 and dropped five dollars fifty seven oh 13 14 14 15 and is up

3% in the aftermarket and we're not telling you it's not going much higher it can I watch somebody on TV today that was actually logical on the Bitcoin that said

who knows where it can go I certainly don't because there's no valuation you can put to it that's correct so why not go to 100,000. If somebody's willing to pay $99,99,999.99 cents, just be careful. I think I could say that a thousand times. And I remember during the GameStop days, I don't think I was vociferous enough

about all the things that were going on at the time. I'm not going to mention name, but there's this famous guy right now. He's in this sports business and he just sold his company and got it back and got it back for a dollar. He was headlining the buying of the meme stocks and actually came out and said, I'm never going to sell until he got his arse beat and then he sold and then told everybody. Just want you to be careful. I want to remind you that the biggest day in GameStop the day it actually topped that big gigantic needle I got a call in my office from an elderly lady she had to be in her 80s should I buy GameStop and I said do you know where it came from well she said oh I know it's at a big movie I said to her it went from 20 it's now 300 and that was three weeks ago you still want to buy something that's up 15fold she said what if it goes to 400 and as I was speaking to her, it went up

20 bucks, and she said, I got to go and hung up like that. Obviously, she went and bought it and probably lost her arse. Hopefully she didn't. Why did she call? Why?

Because it was hot and people were making an unbelievable amount of money in a short period of time. And people want to change their lives. they want financial security and here's the market providing some sort of opportunity

and the problem with the opportunity is the loudest noise is usually nearest the top because it's already had a gargantuan move that's the psychology that's the emotions that you've got to harness or again you could lose your arse and we don't want that happening. And I'm going to repeat

maybe for the fourth or fifth time. We're not telling you it's not going much higher. It certainly could. We're just letting you know micro strategy dropped 21% today. Today. 21%. 21%.

I bought yesterday. I'm down 21%. Today. How's your sleep? whatever you all do I hope it works out for the best just be smart don't lose 21% in anything the market's tough it's not easy our success has been coming from arduous work and time spent and success and failure. But one rule stands. When wrong, be wrong fast and be wrong small. Another rule, know what you're getting into, know the characteristics of what you're buying

into. Are you buying into a slow motion mover or a monster mover crazy like heck? Are you buying at the Bitcoin that trades overnight and on weekends. Two very important rules. And if you can't sleep, you own too much. A third important rule. That's our lesson of the day. Our little preach of the day. We're a little preachy today. Why? The most talked about asset today was down 15% today on a reversal. 15. And the noise has been deafening. You ever be front row at a rock concert like I go to? I can't even hear for three days.

Ring it in the ear. The noise on the Bitcoin has been deafening. You know what I also heard? I heard some of the crap coins even woke up. Could be a signal. Up next, what else do I got for you? I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Dr. Jake Goodman, host of Beyond the Script,

the podcast where I sit down with pharmacists to answer the health questions you didn't even know you could ask at the pharmacy counter. In this episode, we are diving into gut health with CVS pharmacist, Victoria Motola, who explains why so many of us live with stomach issues we should not accept as normal. A lot of what I see is just like chronic bloating, chronic stomach aches. Like, I get a stomach ache every time that I eat.

And it just becomes like a lifestyle where, oh, yeah, you know, I just, I have a stomachache every day. Or I'm constantly feeling like gassy. And all of those things are not something that generally, if you have a healthy gut, you should be living with. So that's when we deep dive. We deep dive into your medication. We deep dive into your OTC medication.

And then at that point, we can probably identify something that we can change. Hear the full conversation, plus some fast, fascinating facts about how gut health affects so much more than just your stomach on Beyond the Script, a podcast from CVS Pharmacy and IHeart Radio. Listen now wherever you get your podcasts. Reese's peanut buttercups. They go perfectly with music. Podcasts. And welcome back to the show. Even nature sounds. Oh, and the thing where someone crinkles tissue and whispers at you. Hello. Look, I'm not here to judge what you listen to.

I'm here to judge you for not eating Reese's while you listen to it. Rees. Ashley, go back to the nature sounds. Nice. Yeah, that's really nice. Cashflow crunch? On-Deck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat with flexible draws, transparent pricing, and control. over repayment. Get funded quickly and confidently. Apply today at on deck.com. Funds could be available as soon as tomorrow. Depending on certain loan attributes, your business loan may be issued by OnDec or

Celtic Bank. OnDak does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amount subject to lender approval. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the guesters edge. With Gary Culper. Aren't we quite purposeful today? Quite purposeful on this Super Tuesday. I've got to tell you. So Joe Biden is putting out this truth squad or something to go after businesses for charging too much money for products. I have to tell you, I know he's the president, but he's just a man.

If I met him, I would look him straight in the face and say, what are you freaking crazy? You want price controls? You want to go to McDonald's CEO and tell them, oh, you're charging four for that, now you're charging $3.50? This guy who has never worked a day in his life in the business world is telling businesses

what they're doing and what they're doing wrong just so he can get elected for another four years so he can put us into more debt and deficits. I got news for you. Business should be ripping the stuffings out of him. Do you know I'm reading, and I've yet to confirm, but it came from a few different. Our debt's going up a trillion every hundred days.

That's what I'm being told, and we'll continue. Is that possible? We're going to do three and a half trillion bucks in deficit going forward a year? We know it was two seven in the last year. This is all Joe Biden. I take it back. This is a lot of Joe Biden. This is the cherry on top.

This is him taking federal spending from 4-4 to 7 from the year before COVID all debt. And for what? I'm going to give $350 billion to John Podesta so he can give it out for climate. Slush fund. And at the same time, while he's ripping business, is he's telling the wealthy and the successful your tax cheats were coming after you.

Who the hell are you? Your family's the one that's freaking corrupt. They're now admitting he was the big guy. They said for two years he wasn't. They're now admitting, oh, he knew there's some business. They're admitting all kinds of things that they said no before. Oh, but now. Yet he's telling others their cheats?

and they're gouging? What do they say about the pot calling the kettle? And by the way, I'd say it straight to his face. Just like I'd say to Trump's face, you're going to lose again. Keep calling people's names. Keep acting like a 12-year-old at gym class. Anyway, it's Super Tuesday. And the Ebola virus versus the bubonic plague stands.

and whoever wins we'll just have to deal with it. We'll just have to deal with it, my friends. Oh, and by the way, you're now finding out that Biden has never spoken to the Border Patrol chief. You know, they were on top of the border. You know, the border is secure. That's what we were told for three years. And now we're finding out more and more and more. and more and more.

As you can see, you know where I stand. Money flew out of software today, just letting you know it was really jumping into some regional banks today. If you go look at the KRE today, regional banks. And I must tell you, if you go look at Fifth Third Bank Corps, almost new yearly high PNC coming up the right side

Kee Corp coming up the right side what's going on regional's better rates tanked today again the quasi bond fund remember these regional banks the perception or reality

as they own a lot of long-dated bonds and if the bond yields come down helps their balance sheets. Bond yields go up the opposite. And you can see a direct correlation in their action versus yields. So good day. We're down to 4.137 on the 10 year.

So that happened today. Little flows into oils again. Oil's definitely acting better. Got a few oil names at new yearly highs. So that's a little bit. China, not making it. When Alibaba and Baidu were acting like the south end of a northbound jackass, not making it. And we have a little hope there.

Because you know what we love. If we can catch a bare market area turning before it gets the institutions on it, you make some good coin. Just don't think it's happening yet. There was a nascent, notice the big word, move, looks like it just got kicked in the teeth. Tomorrow will be of interest. With software getting cracked today, want to see if this crowd strike saved the day? Seeing most of the software names bouncing in the aftermarket because of it, but you're going to need a lot more. because a lot of patterns

blasted turning down getting ugly whether or not it turns into a disaster is another story tomorrow is a Wednesday right

not short TV so potlock but until tomorrow you'll have a great evening drive carefully when you get home to like we do quite simple make sure you hug your family make sure you hug your children they will feel better you will feel better. I promise. Have a great one, everybody. It's super Tuesday. Yay. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get

in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Struggling to see up close, make it visible with Viz. Viz is a once daily prescription eye drop to treat blurry near vision for up to 10 hours. The most common size, The effects that may be experienced while using Viz include eye irritation, temporary dimmer, dark vision, headaches and eye redness. Talk to an eye doctor to learn if Viz is right for you. Learn more at Viz.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

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