Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Something's up! [08.07.2024]

Episode Date: August 7, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. Last I looked, it's Wednesday.

It's, uh, I was going to say August 8th, but it's August 7th. And it's 2024. Hope you're having a good day. As always, this is Investor's Edge. Serious talk on everything that affects you. Hardly anybody knows us, but we're so much more important that anybody, the people with the podcast with 4 million people listening, we are here to defend you, be with you, protect you, guide you,

through the markets, the economy, jobs, your industry, taxes, deficit spending, shams, scams, corruptions, the Morlocks in D.C., go look up Morlocks. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post up GaryK.com also on a Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should, we'll put it on podcast apps also. And if you'd like to email me, all you've got to do is be nice. No, it's pretty simplistic. Nice! Ladies and gentlemen, we don't pull any punches here.

Right? we tell you exactly what we think we tell you what's leading what's lagging if it's bad if it's good and as you know those that have been listened to the show quite carefully know we think the market sucks right now

we think it's speaking loud and clear we think the market has a voice we listen you know today I heard somebody say to they all as well I heard somebody say, buying the XLK, which is technology. I heard another one say, it's Christmas in summer. I heard another one say, all my big cap tech favorites are on sale. And I'm sitting here saying, boy, are they going to lose a bunch of money?

The market's under distribution. What distribution means is big institutional selling. How do we know this? Well, we measure it. Every minute of every day, we don't leave our screens. Yeah, sure, at 1 o'clock we turn on the match game from 40 years ago and watch Gene Rayburn and watch General Hospital from 2 to 3. We never miss General Hospital. But we can do both. We're ambidextrous, and we're dead serious about what we do. And there's nobody better in this world. In this world, in the real. In the real. In the recognition of bare markets, let alone the bull side. And how did that come about? My second

meeting that I ever had with the great William O'Neill, God bless him, may he rest in peace. I used to steal his time during the two-day seminars they used to have in California. And when we'd go to lunch, I would run and make sure I was at his table. And one of the things he said to me stuck out like the biggest freaking sore thumb in history, he said, become the person that knows what bare markets looks like and more importantly how to stay out of them. And you're headed 99.999.999% of the people out there. So I went on a voyage. A lot of time sweat toil. 50,000 charts I've looked at.

I got 10,000 printed out. Separated by folders, bull and bare markets, and what I constantly do is go back to them. I show it in our webcasts of what bear markets look like, what bearish markets look like. We have studied, I can't tell you how many hours the 87 crash. We've gone back to 1910, and we just know what they look like. And we're not just talking to the market. We're talking about sectors,

stocks, countries, commodities. And we also know when something is up. What do we mean by something is up? Well, there's something called the tone of the drop. How vicious was it? if I was to put myself in the shoes of these big institutions selling, are they selling viciously, timidly, quietly, and I must tell you that since the July 11th top that we called for you. And as we told you, we sold most of our technology that day. We sold the rest of our technology the next Wednesday. That was Apple and Amazon. We did not know what it would lead to, but all we can tell you, it's kind of vicious.

And then what we try to do is you take a step back and you go through what's happening, and there's another sore thumb sticking out for me. I wouldn't say it scares the living heck out of me, but it's a big, noteworthy thought. Japan is the third largest country GDP-wise. They raised rates a quarter point and watched their market drop 25%, which made them come back and say, we're not going to raise rates. In fact, we may just go print more money again and buy bonds.

And it comes back to their market dropped 25% on a one little quarter point raise, which of course caused some nightmarish action, which led to a big gap up when it was found out that they're going to roll things back. But I'm not in the back of my mind, but in the front of my mind, wait, a quarter point raise? 25% for the index?

Well, it tells me what I always thought about printing money and keeping rates too long at zero. You are basically, you're holding back a title wave potentially. Remember our inflation? That was the title wave brought to you by J. Powell in printing to $9 trillion bucks in 0% rates. And then there's the other part of the equation. Artificial Intelligence.

You have been inundated about how artificial intelligence is going to be as popular as hostess twinkies and yodels as a kid I loved hostess twinkies but namely yodels and I just want to make sure you know with the yodels you're supposed to take or eat the sides

the outer and then roll it unroll it and then eat it dunk it and milk if you like and I'm watching them unwind a lot of the artificial intelligence stocks while the pundits as usual are out there saying don't worry micron in artificial intelligent play has gone from 157 to 87 don't worry I heard that today

you know what Gary says freaking worry another AI play huge AI play supermicke was down $126 today. The high was 1229. It's $4.92 now. And they said now their margins are being squeezed. Somebody said, don't worry. And I'm like, what are you smoking? If margins are being squeezed, that means demand is coming down.

D. And of course, now, Nvidia's gone from 140-something to 99. and all this so much money is in these areas that I'm like the semiconductor index has gone from 5931 to 4426 from the high we called on July 11th and we'll get in today in a second so we're just letting you know the big picture besides a lot of defensive stuff

some earnings reactions that good earnings reactions projections, market really worsened today, big picture wise. Tomorrow I have no clue. I had no clue they'd gap it up big today. I had no clue that they would kick the living crap out of it by the clothes today. That's the short term. That's the trees. The forest, ick.

And the best way I can explain this is not giving you out the final numbers. It's given you out the opening numbers. The Dow is at 39-478. That's some music. Up next, we'll give out the numbers. And lots more. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum,

hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review.

The number to call is 888-422-559. That's 888-4-22-55-9. That's 888-4-2-4-2-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Colbaum Capital Management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw-fly is a game-changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker.

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might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investor's Edge.

The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. Hi, welcome once again to Investors. So overnight we had found out that Japan was, you ever see the movie Airplane with a guy in the control tower pulls the plug and the lights go out and he says, just kidding. Well, Japan overnight said just kidding. When they said that they would raise rates just a quarter point and watch their market crumble. So right near the open today, the Dow hit 39,478. It drops 715 points from the open.

It finished down 234. You got that? Do you know what's 715 minus 234 is? 481 points the Dow is up on the open. By the way, ran right into the 50-day moving out. and sold off today, just like it did yesterday. The Dow was up 481 points, closed down 234. What is that defined for you?

Well, we're thinking people here. It means the institutions were thanking. Thank you. We're selling. Not Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob. The big institutions. The NASDAQ today, right near the open, hit 16,710 closed at 16195 almost the lows of the day it closed down 171.

Why don't you add 515 points the NASDAQ was up 344 in the morning. Obviously the NASDAQ 100 did the same. and I told my peeps early in the day that it felt like the semiconductors did not have a bid and if they started bringing the market down they're going to hit the semis the socks the Philadelphia Semiconductor index hit 4739 early closed at 4426

313 points off the highs. It was up 172 early. What did I just say? The big institutions continued their distribution. I had no idea we'd gap up today. I really didn't have any deal we'd gap down. We'd get smoked. I don't know what's going to happen overnight.

Here's what I do know. the big picture still sucks, except for relative strength in some earnings reactions, though there's some that have been blasted, utilities, food, drugs, beverage, tobacco, household products, but not Eli Lilly or Novo Nodisk. Novo Nordisk. Get it right, Gary. said something about their uh yeah Wagovi or whatever not going good really thought everybody was on that that was down 8% today

I would say some of the real estate investment trusts are hanging in there but the rest as George Costanza once said the seas were angry that day my friend like an old man trying to return soup at a deli

I think that's what he said if not I'm paraphrasing. Close, though. I don't know what else to tell you. It's worrisome to me that Japan could drop 25% on a measly quarter point. It's worrisome to me that the leading group in the market's getting shellacked. What's the leading group? These semis.

It's worrisome to me that the financials that were holding up so well are now getting kicked in the teeth to a certain extent. do I have to go further? As I always say, I have no clue what they do overnight. I have no clue how we open tomorrow. But buy the book, and I'm not saying B-U-Y buy the book, I'm saying B-Y the book. The NASDAQ trades well below the 50-day moving average, held the 200-day on Monday, still above it decently,

and we'll need to. The S&P 500's in between the 50 and the 200 day, but safely below the 50 day, not good. The Dow, the same as the S&P, a little bit stronger, as every time it tries to rally, goes up to it and then fails like two days in a row. The transports act like the south end of a northbound jackass. The nascent rally in the Russell 2000, no. And the mid-cap 400, no. Crypto keeps going lower.

you that you know they're kind of quieting down you know the crypto people I saw one girl on TV yesterday just close your eyes and buy and I'm thinking of myself damn I would love to be interviewing this young lady and why because the last Bitcoin bear market dropped 74% and I would just simply ask her did you tell people just close their eyes and by from March of 21 to December 22 when it went down 74%. 100,000 would have been $26,000. It's amazing some of the crap that comes out of people's mouths with no care of who's listening or watching. Everything we say is not by accident, not by happenstance. And to make sure you realize Wall Street is always,

a fully invested vehicle even when things go awry, and they will continue to tell you, don't worry everything's okay. I saw some reiterate by recommendations on some semiconductors that are down 35% in the last month. How's 35%. Would you be happy with that? I wouldn't be.

So just letting you know, I wish I had better news today. They opened it hot, and the big money said, Have a nice day. Up next. What else? And then Harris.

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code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination, Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is, Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. We're listening to America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. All right. Anyway, we gave you today. That's the trees.

The big picture is just not good. That's all I can tell you. When things change, I'll let you know. They worsen today. And you know one of our little mantras. So we've got a few. One of them is in bull markets, they open them down and close them hot. In bear markets or bearish phases or bullish phases,

they open it hot and they sell it off. And all we're trying to do is measure institutional buying and selling and the patterns that are made from their buying and selling. And we're damn good at it. Anybody who would enter my lair, you would see a couple of huge boxes that are now in these plastic things I got from Home Depot to keep them better. And there's just chart after chart after chart after chart. And I'm watching all these people being paraded out there and telling you it's not bearish. And I have to say they're sick in the mind.

They're insane because the indices are only down what? 10 to 15. I can name you hundreds of stocks down 20, 25, 30. What I say about Micron, 157 to 87? Let's see, 157 to 87 is 70, right? On 157, that's in the 40s. In the 40s, highly touted stock. Hopefully, tomorrow is better.

Which gives me my last point, and this is not, hmm, I'm going to take a step back to how I want to phrase this. Bear with me. Okay. I am very worried about how this is being sold, the tone of it and how it's sold, the complacency and the reaction of how it is sold. And the thought process that everything's just fine. While on a daily basis, I have been telling you, they keep cutting another credit card with a higher credit limit for the last one. Two trillion dollar yearly deficits.

And they look in the face and lie out their arse. A trillion of our dollars going towards interest every year. And they're trying to tell us how great of a job they've done. what's my favorite two words to them up yours and then there's j powell my oft-mentioned favorite person and again nothing personal he doesn't know what he's doing he doesn't have a grip on things he's been telling you the economy is sound that everything's a-okay while little old me that don't have 800 analysts going out telling you, wait a minute. Mr. Logic is telling you that retailers don't just cut prices 25 to 50% because things are good. McDonald's doesn't do $5 meals and

then somebody comes out with $4 meals and undercuts them if things are good. Credit card, you should skyrocketing. It shouldn't be happening if things are good. Oh wait a minute, yeah, that is good because they use them. No, it is. isn't and now the job market worsening and as we have stated to you we thought the economy would stay fine nothing spectacular but fine unless we lose the job market well i think we fell off a little ledge hopefully it's not a ledge that don't have another ledge underneath hopefully 10-year yield backed up a little bit today, whoopi-do. Gold down a little bit today, whoopi-do.

They smacked the hell out of the housing stocks, the retailers, the financials were strong early, finished in the red, the restaurant stocks got hit, economically sensitive stocks were upper. Remember, we were up 400 and tanked. And by the way, they kind of tanked it into the close. We were hit pretty hard. We rallied up a little bit.

And like in the last five minutes, they smacked a heck out of it. What happens next? I wish I can tell you. Last five minutes, the Dow dropped. 38925, 150 points. Two words, something's up. We'll see what the outcome is. I just think something's up.

I know commercial real estate stinks. in many places, with all the things I've mentioned to you. But something's up. I hope that's wrong. I hope we don't find out. But something's up. There's some gremlins eating at this thing right now. And let me repeat something.

I do not like the way the semiconductors are acting here in the face of all that hype on artificial intelligence. What do I say about the bloom coming off the rose? Well, let's look at it for a second, just so you know. NVIDIA, 141 to 98 and change. Broadcom, 185 to 136. Micron, 157 to 87. Applied materials, 255 to 178.

Arm holdings, 189 to 107. KLA 10 Corps, 896 to 697. Lamb Research, 1130 to 748. Taiwan Semiconductor, 193 to 155. micro, 1229 to 492. Yet they're telling you, don't worry. Oh yeah, AMD, 227 to 128. But don't worry. We hit the top for you July 11th. That was one of the best looking cell signals I have seen a long time. Remember, We're looking at a photo album for familiar faces, and this one's a doozy. This one's a doozy.

Now, I do want to tell you we're still focused. We're still on top of it. If it worsens, they usually get them all. We're hoping it doesn't, and the cream rises to the top. We're paying attention to the companies that have the great earnings reactions because they're doing great things. but I repeat again if it worsens they pretty much come after everything to a certain

extent I'm just a little worried that something's up just a little and that's not the biggest the reaches when Japan drops 25% because they raised a quarter of a point up next

what would I ask Kamala Harris that won't be asked of her This is the one only investor's edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer.

With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Lawlet. Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading

condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. In The Bester's Edge with Gary Kaltba. Well, as you know, the election, as you know, it did not matter who Donald Trump picked.

If he picked Mother Teresa, the media would have picked her bones also. That's how it works. The media sucks. They've lost all credit. ability whatsoever. So J.D. Vance is now the Antichrist. Just letting you know. It does not matter.

If he's the sweetest, nice, his best, doesn't matter. They're picking him apart. And of course, it's lovey-dovey. Kamala Harris, and they pick this guy from Minnesota. But I don't really care about J.D. Vance or the guy from Minnesota because they're just vice presidents right now.

We'd have to care if something happens. but the important thing is Trump versus Harris now Trump is getting a colonoscopy 24-7 by the media so we really don't have to delve deep into him we already know everything but they don't care about Harris because tough questions are bad for their peeps remember when Biden went in front of

the NBC person for an interview that used to be from CNBC and she's a brilliant financial mind and Biden said he lowered the deficits and she sat there like a mannequin and didn't just come back with a little follow-up with running $2 trillion deficits. How did you lower the deficit?

No, she didn't say a word. Do you know why? Because they suck. When it's their side, there, hey, how you doing? When it's the other side, yeah, yeah, yeah, but. So what would I ask, Kamala Harris, being that, she should be asked these things. Number one, you called for defunding the police. It's on video, many videos. Do you still want to defund the police? No, I do not. So why did you back then say you wanted to? What changed?

and we all know what happened. Back then it was, you know, the cool thing, you know, the BLM and everything. That would be number one. Number two, you have called for a 35% corporate tax. Are you still for 35%? And why? And what do you think that will do to corporations and they're hiring because you are now confiscating profits? What about Joe Biden's proposals, which happened to be yours because it's the Biden Harris?

Do you believe long-term capital gains should go from 20 to 44.6 percent? Meaning, you would be disincentivizing people from holding more than a year. And explain yourself. What about unrealized capital gains? In other words, after a year, I did not sell the asset, but I'm up 100 grand. do you still want me to pay taxes even though I did not sell it? And what happens if I can't afford to pay those taxes because I didn't sell it? And doesn't that make me forced to sell it?

Where do you stand? And of course, I would not let her off because we do follow-ups. What is the highest tax rate you want? The highest. What is the highest tax rate? What do you tell the people when you let the Trump, tax cut sunset, what do you tell the people that make $50,000 a year that you are now raising their taxes? Because you cannot carve out a bill. You have proposed a wealth tax. Is that off the table?

You were part of the proponents of the $949 let people off from shoplifting law. In other words, if people shoplifting, And only shoplift $949, you're okay. But at $950, oh, we're going to charge you. Do you still think that was a logical law and you do know it's still in place? Should we get rid of that law? And then the most important part of the equation would be when she BS is with the answers, not let her get away until she gets up and leaves. and if she got up and leaves, that means we did our job. Notice I didn't even touch upon other things.

I'm touching upon the things that matter to you most. You, the people, and your families, and that is your safety, the police. Are they there for you? Will they answer the call? Do you know in Oakland, they don't answer emergency calls right now because there's not enough of them? Do you know that? Do you know in Washington, D.C., they're sending out flyers to the innocent victims and families there about how to protect themselves from carjacking because they don't do anything about the carjackers? So that would be number one.

Number two would be how much do they want their greasy, grimy, sleazy, slimy hands in our pockets and on top of industries? because the more they are into the industries, the less the industries are making, the less the industries hiring, and the less of the economy. And of course, the big matzabal at the end, before she gets up, you are part of $2 trillion a year deficits. While you and Joe Biden said, you cut the deficits, let me show you the poster. Here are the numbers. This is the Congressional Budget Office. This is their poster.

This is their chart. Two trillion a year, but you said you cut them. You want to explain that, and what are you going to do about it specifically, to make sure we don't run $2 trillion deficits each year? And last, you gave $350 billion of our tax dollars to John Podesta for climate. Please tell us what he's spending it on, and who is he given the money to? And he's given any money away to the donors, your donors, your friends, your relatives, and how many corporations, just started up in Delaware from all your donors and all for climate, startup companies. How many of those out there?

Do you think any media is going to ask any of these vital questions of somebody that would be running this country? Hell no. They are going to kiss her butt from now to November whatever date it is. they're already laying off of her. She's not doing any interviews. And that's that. And again, Trump, he's getting a colonoscopy 24-7, and we've ripped them to shreds any out here so many times.

I can't even begin to tell you. And as you know, we'd rather have two people who else, but it's binary. And as you know, I'm so pissed at myself that I didn't run. I'd eat them all up. Why? We the people. Ladies and gentlemen, you have a good evening.

Drive carefully. wish I'd better news on the market, but it's not my fault. Until tomorrow, peace out. When you get home, make sure you hug your family, hug your children. They will feel better. You'll feel better. Same time tomorrow. Serenity now. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen

to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear Refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands

of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One. One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.