Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Stagflation [03.18.2026]

Episode Date: March 18, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. Hey, thanks for being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.

It is the 18th of March, 2006. Hope you having a good day. because the things I'm going to be describing is probably going to harsh your buzz today. What can I tell you? It's not my fault. Very simply, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. The markets, the economy, your job, your industry, war tariffs, stagflation, inflation, recession, and whatever else. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll post on our X feed. And if you don't follow us on X, you should.

Just go there, put our name in. And if you like to email us, just be nice and respectful. We can disagree 1,000% but respectful. Nothing wrong with that, right? I've always wondered how people argue and argue and get mad, mad, and mad, If I'm to have an opinion on something, I've got to respect your opinion anyway. And we'll have some things to say today. Well, Dow is down 768, S&P 91, NASDAQ 327, NASDAQ 135.

I'm not sure the Trump lovers are going to be happy what I have to say, but I have to echo my father. My father always said, whatever happens, whoever's running the country gets the credit or gets the opposite. That's all. today, a big inflation number came out. Now, it's only one number, but it was very high, much higher than expected. It's the producer price numbers.

And I'm going to do this for you. Producer Price Index. What is it? measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It measures inflationary pressures. It came in very hot. So now we have a trifecta. GDP was just revised to 0.7 percent, less than 1. The job market sucks. The last year's job market is the worst in years.

And now inflation picking up. Oh, and by the way, this inflation number is before the war and oil prices. Under President Donald Trump, while he was out again today saying we are in a golden age of economy and economics. we say it's the opposite. We warned you months and months and months ago and nobody believed us that we could have an outcome

that's not so good and let me be specific and to the point for all you conservatives out there, conservative Republicans, you loathed, I loathed that Kamala Harris, I have it still on my wall here. Some of her proposals was to take long-term capital gains up to 44%, possibly unrealized capital gains, maybe a wealth tax. Let the Trump tax cuts expire.

I think it was Reagan who once said, what was his line? If it moves tax it, well, that was Kamala Harris. So in comes Trump, the breath of fresh air. We are going to extend the tax cuts, and we got a few more up our sleeve. Remember that, right? What is it? No tax on tips, amongst some other things. But then what happened?

What happened? Tariffs. Tariffs are just raising taxes. And as I have told you, raising taxes is bad for the economy. And the more you raise taxes, the worse it is for the economy. And the president has been out there, given out the numbers that they have collected and also BSing about who pays for them, but we all know who pays for them.

He's admitted a few times, and then he had a lie again. Tariffs. And then the word uncertainty, when you change your stance 300 times on tax policy, well, there you have it. We now have potential.

I'm an optimist. So I'll say potential. Stagflation. That's a stagnant economy and still have inflation. Where was the president wrong again today? He was yelling, Jay Powell needs to lower interest rates. Jay Powell kept interest rates the same today. They had their meeting.

Well, Jay Powell is at 3.5%. The 10 year is at 4.26%. And the 30 years 4.88%. What have we told you about too much easy money? It creates more inflation. We nailed it for you what Jay Powell did when he printed up to $9 trillion and then rigged the whole freaking bond market distorting the whole housing market. So the president's wrong on that.

So we're just letting you know There is An opportunity for stagflation now At least I think we're near there And these numbers are before the war And I think the president Needs to come to a realization If I had his ear

I would be in his ear right now And say to him, you know, Mr. President War is also economic War is also economic. And now oil prices are at 97 bucks. They're up 50%. I think average at the pump was 388 yesterday, up from 290. You know what that is?

A sharp stick in the eye to the consumer. We're right. They're wrong. Should be lower taxes less regulations get the hell out of the way but as you know They are injecting themselves into everything Which is also a little bit of a problem that said Outcomes everything outcome and right now the outcome is not very good Job market is not good at all GDP not good and not good and now in

inflation picking up? What? And by the way, before the war. This inflation number is before the war. So we'll keep our fingers crossed. Things better. But the market really reflected it today. We've had that S&P since last April.

We're getting close to knocking that bad boy out. It's right on the bubble now. Hit it a couple of times and bounced. not so sure it's going to bounce this time, we'll see. Tomorrow will be another day. But I just want to let you know I'm just sticking with my father's mantra, whoever's the president. And by the way, they were out blaming Biden today.

What? And as you know, we think Biden sucked. Hey, up next, a little bit more on these markets, what's sticking out? and why government really dislikes us. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living,

specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs. all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be,

call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-422-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Coltbaum Capital Management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun.

Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. do not forget I don't give a hoot who's the president

I have no allegiance except a good sound policy that's all I'm interested in we don't see R we don't see D and people actually get mad at that you got to have a side no my side is with the American people

and they are all tiresome by the way in the last year $2.8 trillion in deficit what happened to Doge huh what happened to Doge

my recommendation to the president right now would be get that war done yesterday I still don't understand how they told us months ago they knocked out

they used the word obliterated their nuclear and now they're saying, oh, they were a couple of weeks away. Okay. We know they lie. Fine. Fast forward to today. If I had his ear, Mr. President, war is also economic. You say you have destroyed everything there. You've taken them out. Take the big win and get the hell out of there. Let him open up the straits again. The problem will be, I can tell you this, oil prices aren't going back to where they came from. They'll go about halfway back. Do you know why? There will be a premium to oil prices based on

uncertainty. Just letting you know, that would be my message to him. And unfortunately, I don't think any of his advisors are given him any good ideas. Or he'd be out of there by now. Or maybe he's not listening. I don't know. Anyway, crappy day. A few other things of note. We told you recently that the gold miners, once it broke the 50, it was over. Silver is an avoid also for right now. Our thought process of that climactic move. And gold, though, was still hanging in there.

Well, gold broke the 50-day moving average today on volume. Gold miners and silver worsens. they are a voids now. We're not telling you to sell, buy short cover. If you own them long term, God bless you. We're just letting you know we don't believe there should be any new commitments to gold and silver right now.

For that matter, a lot. I look at the platinum, the palladium, and some of the other stuff that ends in eum. They're a voids. They've all broken down below me. moving averages, below resistance, and they're just plain old avoids now. So that happened. What else am I saying?

I have to mention, I did yesterday, but I have to mention again today, back in, I believe it was September, when all those no-sale stuff skyrocketed and a bunch of jackasses were touting you on them. I remember one person calling a no-sales nuclear company a growth stock. Anyway, back then, we just warned you, and we have this simple line that's been lasting years for us, and that is, if nothing changes, and they continue to have no sales, eventually they're going to go back to where they came from. Well, yesterday we mentioned, again, how bad they are, where some are down 50, 60, 70 percent. Our poster child was OKLO. It's gone from 194 to 56 and change. Well, we're just letting you know they worsened again today. And I mean, a lot of these things are now

getting ripped apart where I'm seeing some things now. Here's one that was $11.50. It is now three. We hope you listened. We hated the fact they were touting you on this crap. By the way, I'm just looking at a couple right now that I haven't looked at yet. Here's one lithium Americas. That's down 65%.

65. And remember the rare earth stuff? The rare earth, got to own that. How about what's $11.30. down to $3.5.5. That's one I'm looking at right now. And then there's the drones. You know what I'm talking about.

So just letting you know, I was just noticing them today, beat red, all of them down. And then I'm also noticing a bunch of them are now at two and three bucks. That were $10, $15. And I'm noticing some at 14 bucks that were at 40. They're all going back to where they came from. And the next time it occurs, we'll warn you again. But right now, they are gone bye-bye.

And every now and then we get asked, well, what do you think? What do you stay away? How about this one? 57 down to 12. New scale power. develops small nuclear modular reactor technology, 57 down to 12. Hmm.

What is that, about 75%. And it still has a $3.6 billion market cap at 12 bucks with very little sales and lose a ton of money. So we weren't going to bring this up today, but as I was perused. using my screens. I just noticed a lot of them are now single digits. They weren't used to be single digits. Again, we hope you listen.

By the way, you know what else? The Trump media that we warned you about. And again, because very little in sales, it just broke 10 today. $9.13. That sucker was 60. That is not a rib on him. It was just talking about.

Companies got hardly any sales. You all got to be careful with your money. By the way, that is a $2.5 billion market cap still. Wow. Didn't even realize that. I saw that in the side of my eye. So gold, silver avoids. I got another area now to avoid.

drugs. First off, drugs are bad for you. But they're breaking down AbVee, Eli Lilly, Glaxo, Abbott, AstraZeneca, even Merck that's been strong in the down looks like it's breaking the 50 day today.

We would avoid the drugs. And up next, what else in health care seems to be an issue? I'm Gary. This is the one only Investors Edge. We're listening to America is talking. Investors ads.

He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So we've already been on the void with all the medical products, research, and the like.

I mean, just a big avoid. Throw in the drugs now. Oh, managed care. That's medical. Add some biotech. Go look at the IBB or the BBA, they look like big tops in place. So just letting you know the whole healthcare complex. Yeah, go look at the XLV also.

Total big top. XLV. That would be the health care. Another area to avoid. You know what that means. we're running out of areas to avoid. That means we've got to be watching things carefully from here. What's still strong is another good day.

Until the end of the day, the semis had a great relative bid today. The optical storage data memory was having a good day. But when the market had that last leg down today, they came in two. but Sandisk was up 25, L-I-T-E, up 50. So that was still good. By the way, Micron reported in the aftermarket, it's down two bucks.

That's pretty darn good after the move it's had. I haven't looked at their numbers. I said earlier, boy, our government continues to show us, they hate us. Have you ever wondered why our tax code is so, complicated, convoluted, and a pain in the rear? Have you ever just taken a step back and just said to yourself and asked the question, why don't they just make it, here's your tax rate, here's the three things you can write off, and that's it, home interest, charity, those are two good write-offs, and retirement.

accounts. Good write-offs. And that's it. No, no, we got to complicate everything. How many pages in the tax code? 70,000 pages. 2600 pages of statutority law to over 70,000 pages when including IRS regulations, rulings, and case law. They hate us. Have you ever got one of those things from Social Security? Try understanding that.

And by the way, don't you dare add up how much you've put into Social Security and then say to yourself, what if I just got 5% on my money since day one? Where would I be right now if it wasn't in Social Security?

Why do I bring this up? Because as you know, I went on Medicare. And if you thought the tax code was complicated, try reading the crap they sent to you on Medicare. I got a thing today that says your Medicare Part D explanation of benefits. I will tell you Stephen Hawking and Albert Einstein can't figure some of this crap out. It's amazing. And I got bills and all kinds of, I don't know what you call it.

It's a nightmare. They really do hate us. You have to hate the people to do what they're doing. And as you know, they've taken us the $39 trillion of debt. They're corrupt with their insider trading. They're becoming multi-millionaires through a lot of weird crap in D.C. I'm just letting you know, I looked at this whole Medicare thing. That's government run.

And I'm a pretty smart guy. I really am a pretty smart guy I don't know what the hell this thing says and then it says learn more Medicare made the rules about which types of payments count towards out-of-pocket costs and total drug costs for more detail see really

they really do hate us $2.8 trillion of debt in the last year under Trump. The guy who said, no, we're not going to do that. Nah. Not at all. Anyway, go look up the word stagflation. The numbers coming in right now pretty much define it. But these numbers could be fleeting. They could be one-offs. I don't think the job market is one-offs. Six months out of the last year, we lost jobs. Do not believe when he says we're the hottest country in the world. That's a BS. Golden Age, that's BS. We make our own golden age, by the way. They all think too highly of themselves. And let's hope they get it right.

By the way, Mike runs down 15 bucks now. That's not going to be a big help. But by the way, five below. Have you ever been one of those stores? I've never. You know what I have to do? Go into one of their stores. Stocks up 14 bucks in the aftermarket near all-time highs. The stock has gone from looking at the monthly. Came public in 2012 to 26 bucks.

It's now 200. They must be doing something right. 1771 targeted discount retail stores in 44 states. Open 227 new stores. I'm going to have to check that out. In a sea of retail stocks in bare markets, five below and raw stores stand out big time. We're talking stocks, which usually means good things, stand out big time. I'm going to have to check this five below out.

You know what else? Have you ever heard of this place called El Pollo Loco Holdings? I guess that's El Pollo Tropical restaurants. That sucker just broke out on big volume up for four days in a row. I've got to see what's going on there. It's down big from 2014, but much better now. I don't think I've ever been to one. El Pollo in Spanish is chicken, right?

I think. Don't quote me on that. I'm pretty sure, though. Anyway, what else? Crypto. So there's been a nascent, notice the big word, bounce slash rally in the crypto. I have to tell you,

it may already be over, and you know where it's over at? Right near the declining 50-day moving average, which keeps it in vicious bare market territory. So the prediction of 1.5 million by 2030, we may have to put that off. Do you know we have to go up 40% just to get 100,000 now? I think we're at 70,000, right? More than 40% just to get to 100,000, let alone 1.5 million.

I loathe those people who make those predictions. They're such BS. They're liars. how's that they're liars they're BS artists they're trying to talk their book and talk you into getting some anyway not a good look today for the

crypto and do not forget what I told you 32,000 coins were tried and there's still a bunch trading that nobody even talks about and while bitcoins down what 40 some odd percent from the highs, there are a bunch of others down 75 and 80. Do not forget that. And every time I see somebody smiling on TV, oh, we're fine.

Yeah, we know it's down 45%. But that happens all the time. Sure. I just love them. What else? I only have now seven of the 30 Dow stocks with bullish trends. And two of them look like they're topping,

and that is Verizon and Walmart. Just letting you know. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, this is the one only Investor's Edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go.

Investers Edge. With Gary Culpa. Oh yeah, we're getting close to rush. Strengthen the market. Defense stocks still for obvious reasons. Oils. For obvious reasons. The fertilizers.

Not all for obvious reasons. And in case you don't know, there's a bottleneck for them also. at the Straits of Hormuz. There's some smattering of other areas. Of course, strength in still the optical data, storage, memory stuff, and still a bunch of semiconductors. But after that, I have to tell you, my little proprietary count of how many,

any stocks are in good versus bad shape, we are getting towards a very low number. I think we're at like 30, 35 percent, and that is not good numbers. Just letting you know. And also when your best stocks are oils and defense, I'm not so sure that's good news either. Again, for obvious reasons, software stocks we had said to you know they're acting better but they were so stretched extended to the downside

it may just be a bearish market bounce slash rally well so far that's all it is one look at the IGV starting to roll over right near the declining 50-day moving average and all-important Microsoft starting to roll over again.

And it was trying, but it ain't working now. So software, not so great. Mega caps, you know that stuff? All pretty much yuck. You know what the best name is in there? Dell. But guess what what happened with Dell. It broke above a little range and tucked its head in like a frightened turtle. Nvidia is just still in that range. But Tesla, Siemens, SAP, Qualcomm, Oracle, Meta, Microsoft. Google's been trying to do better, but nah. Salesforce.com, booking holdings, Apple, Adobe, Amazon, AMD, Broadcom, all look crappy. Netflix, one of them, is better. Why? Because they were buying somebody and now they're not. So that got a nice little boost. The first move up is now sitting. We'll see what happens in the weeks ahead to see if it decides to take another move up. I have no clue if it does that

or not. I wish I had better things to tell you. I love coming out here and telling you about the leadership. And again, you still have it in the areas mentioned. They're not the greatest areas. Because if oils are up, cruise lines are down. Hotels are down. Casinos are down. Airlines are down. By the way, speaking of your government hating you, you see what the hell's happening in the airports? They really hate us. But you know what they all know? They'll still be elected. Imagine it's 2026 and they cannot get TSA people paid.

So I heard 350 have just quit and a bunch of them aren't even showing up and there's three and four hour lines at some of these airports. They really do hate us. It should be the number one story. There's talk that maybe they have to shut an airport or two. One of the smaller airports. Boy, oh boy.

What do they call them town halls? We should all go to all the town halls that they have towards the election. And we should all give them a nice little piece of the mind. Respectfully, they hate us. And the line to us on a daily basis is, wow, wow, wow. just look at the Epstein crap redacted they hate us

they hover over us isn't it tiresome what else economically sensitive stocks not good financials we're trying today not good and just avoids

and I notice Mastercard and Visa getting busted today Mastercard right at new yearly lows Visa is at new yearly lows amazing those are two very important stocks which leads me to look at Capital One financial

same and American Express under pressure too not so sure it's good news when financials are doing what they're doing so kids it's bumpy It's bumpy. And if, in fact, we do have a bout of stagflation for a while,

market's going to go lower. Do you know why? Profits go south to a certain extent, which means valuations go up and then they come down. So stay tuned. pay attention. Do not pay attention to the permibuls just in case. That all said, you have a good day.

Good evening. Drive carefully when you get home to like we do. It's simple. Make sure you hug your family and you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise stay well. Be well.

Always thanks for joining us. Good night all. Bye bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Garykai.com. That's GaryKK.com.