Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Still broad based [12.04.2023]
Episode Date: December 4, 2023https://garykaltbaum.com/...
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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum.
Straight talk about you and your money.
Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
I'm Gary Colbaum, your host.
A thanks for being with us today.
Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen.
Happy that you are listening.
It's Monday, December 4th, 2020,
as we head into the end of the year.
Hope you had a great weekend.
I didn't have a great weekend.
First off, my wife is not around,
so it's never a great weekend or a good weekend when she's not around.
She's driving back from the Northeast as I speak right now.
For Florida State University,
where both my sons went to school,
not a great weekend as they got ripped off,
as the NCAA football committee is now nothing more than a figure scale.
bunch of judges that took a group of men who went undefeated third string quarterback and still
ran the table and they made the decision that, well, you know, we need the best teams.
How are you not the best team when you win with your third string quarterback after running the
table?
Anyway, you know where I stand on that.
I just had to start with that.
I hope you had a good weekend.
All right.
Where would we want to start?
I've got a lot of little things I want to cover in no particular order.
But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com.
We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X.
And if you want to follow us on Twitter, you go to X, put our name in or press the button at garyk.com.
And if you'd like to email us at garyk.com, go ahead.
Just be nice.
We got an email today, and it was respectful, but kind of tweaked us.
And you know, as somebody that always looks over their shoulder, you always want to answer your critics.
You don't have to answer people that compliment you.
You thank them, but we answer our critics.
and we haven't had a lot.
In case you don't know, this show, radio show, we're in a bunch of stations.
We used to have a lot more, but radio is changed and they're talking about AM going by, who the hell knows?
Anyway, we're on all these podcastings, and we have a pretty solid number of people that listen to the show.
And what we think we do best, first and foremost, we listen back to the show.
that's number one. Number two is we think we have a good eye for the markets. And we think our mantra,
which was taught to us by others, really is important. That is when wrong, be wrong, fast, be wrong,
small, when right, try to let them run. And as we've stated to you in the markets, the toughest part
is letting them run. I have to tell you, I owned a bunch of mega-cap tech stocks in the last weeks.
I sold a bunch last week a couple of more today.
don't want to sell them, but the market at a given point in time makes you. That's how markets
work for us. And we've been right about the ones we sold last week. Boy, we saved a ton of money.
We sold AVGO. It's 670 something. It's like 620 something now. But that's besides the point.
So we got an email from somebody that kind of said that we never say we're wrong and we're
always right, kind of said that it's all stale, that we're not specific.
And I'm thinking to myself, what show is this guy listening to?
And I respectfully answered him.
So let me do a little description of this show as I see it.
Number one, there is nobody more specific than us out there.
what other person will say to you
avoid these areas
these are the leading areas
from July to the end of October
we were telling you 80% of the market was in downtrends
avoid
what you can own is some of the oils
and some of the mega cap tech but that was it
on November 1st we said we think things have changed
and we think the market may turn up from here
and broaden out, and it's exactly what happened.
And we have highlighted financials, airlines, cruise lines, transports,
or a list of areas, gold recently, which we'll go through in a minute.
How much more specific does somebody want us to be?
Who else is doing that out there?
Who else is stating to you, these are the bare markets, stay out.
In the last month, it flip-flop to the point where we would be.
We can tell you, now avoid the oils, except for the pipelines and a couple of stragglers that act better than the oils as a whole.
Who else is doing that?
So we respectfully disagree with that.
We don't know where people come from, but this is what we believe about ourselves.
We don't think there's anybody more direct out there and specific.
And when wrong, be wrong, fast, be wrong, small, when right, try to let them run.
Which, again, ain't easy, especially when you have markets like we've had the last two, three years.
I know everybody's talking about the big November, but what if December gets trashed?
What, you don't think that can happen?
The good news is, so far so good.
Except last week we started telling you, oh, we don't like the way some of these mega-cap techs are, and guess what's been under pressure?
The Mega Cap text.
So we just wanted to answer that email.
And it was pretty respectful.
A little zingy here.
You know, a little zing.
And that's okay.
At least the guy didn't call me a Nazi or something like that,
which I get every now and then from some weirdos
that don't have their email.
Boy, oh boy, you should see some of people out there.
So anyway, we just wanted to start with that.
Next, what I want to bring up,
and this is an Investor's Edge Alert.
I've got to unabashedly praise Hillary Clinton.
As you know what's going on with Israel,
and there is a select minority of people that are the loudest that are out there
that are acting like psychopathic, crazy, antisocial, Jew-hating scumbags.
And Hillary Clinton's been front and center about Hamas,
and today, in front of the UN, I think she video.
I knowed it in about how the women, the women's organizations suck the raping of the Israeli women.
And I'm not going to go into the descriptions today.
But the women's organizations have flat out showed who they are more Jew haters.
I mean, life is simplistic about raping women.
There's no gray areas.
So good on Hillary Clinton.
She gets my praise.
And just so you know, there's really nothing I've liked about her.
You know I blasted her, and especially her husband.
But she's still an influence out there.
And I love what she did today.
Praise to her.
Next.
On the other side, you got this.
to name Pramila Jaya Pal or whatever.
She's a Congresswoman.
She was on one of the Sunday shows and asked about the rapes.
Well, you know, but, but, but, anti-Israel, anti-Jew, anti-Jewish scum.
That's all.
She's not about protecting Palestinians.
She's about destroying and the murder of every Jew.
And have showed it.
She still have not condemned.
Nothing.
This is these leftist Marxist squad ass clowns.
And she's luckily, I didn't do the interview.
We'll next.
There have been protests.
A Jewish restaurant in Philadelphia protests.
Nazi flags.
Yelling, screaming, violent, vile, dirt bags.
And the governor comes out and blasts them.
But nobody's arrested for hate crimes.
nobody's doing anything about it.
And I'm thinking to myself,
and you know I have to be careful here,
you do know we watch every word we say here
because you know everybody's listening to every word,
and if you say it the wrong way,
ooh, the police are going to show up.
So I'm going to say it in a general fashion.
Imagine if this was being done to another group
that
will get defended.
You get where I'm going with this, right?
Where's Biden?
Where is the leader of this country
the President of the United States
to tamp down these ass clowns
protesting in the streets?
The murder of Jews.
They are not protesting for Palestinians.
The murder of Jews.
Up next.
We'll put a bow on it.
than the markets. This is the one
only Investor's Edge.
Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum,
hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.
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advisory services offered through
Colbaum Capital Management.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands,
and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than
you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% of
your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John,
comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers
the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you
expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step
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Terms apply.
Lounge access is subject to change.
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It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain sense.
working. You're listening to.
Hey, this promises
to be fun. Investors Edge.
The last bastion of quality
programming. With Gary called
bomb. It doesn't get better than this.
So,
I'm looking
at video in Brooklyn right now
and these same scumbags
are out there
calling for the murder of Jews, not
the defending of Palestinians,
but the murder of Jews, the death of
Jews. And there's no
president. How is he not out there saying, if you are inciting terror, if you are destroying,
we are going to arrest you, we're going to charge you with hate crimes. So keep at it.
Not a freaking word. Where is the leadership? Oh, that's right. It's the wrong group it's being
done too. Do you
remember
the George Floyd
the Black Lives Matter
and a bunch of
riots,
riots,
destruction.
Do you remember how they were defended?
Defended up the
wazoo. Where's the right
and wrong? Where's
the legalities?
Just like we talk about
the shoplifting. What's going
on here? I read the other
day they let a murderer
out.
Manslaughter, a second degree
murder. No bail.
I forgot which state, whatever, it doesn't matter.
I just have to keep making these points
because
you know I missed the logic.
You know somebody's going to try
and walk into a synagogue soon
and pull another
Pittsburgh.
You know that's what's going to happen.
And not until then.
When we get a freaking president out in force,
there's a group of people that are now being attacked every single day,
led by a few crumbs in D.C.
And then I wake up this morning, NBC has some reporter quoting Hamas on how many people are dead,
and how many dead Palestinians are.
They're quoting the people.
that murdered and raped.
We're upside down.
Okay, we move on.
That's what we do.
We segue.
Or do I?
We'll do Biden corruption tomorrow because they have all kinds of checks now.
Boy, what a corrupt slees.
I got to mention that Hawaiian Airlines, a stock I don't own a share of, was up 192% today to $14.22 because Alaska Air is buying them.
The stock was under five.
They're buying them for like triple.
Why would they pay that much on a company that's losing a ton of money?
Beats the hell out of me.
Just want to let you know.
I have flown Hawaiian the sweetest nicest people.
You live in Hawaii.
You're nice.
Jay Powell is one of the candidates to be person of the year from Thai magazine.
I was one of the candidates for Sexiest Man Alive from People magazine.
It's amazing a man that played God with markets, screwed savers, created all kinds of bubbles that crashed, all kinds of distortions, inflation, and was completely wrong about it.
We have a distortion now where nobody wants to sell their 3% mortgage to get an 8th.
That's all him.
Has lost a trillion bucks on his own bond buying of fake money.
They announced that he's a candidate on his fight on inflation that he created.
We're topsy-turvy kids.
We're in bizarro world.
I, I, blah.
Blah.
I don't even know what to say.
It's stunning. It's stunning. The absolute destruction of what this man is going. And I keep hearing people on TV, has Jay Powell engineered a soft landing. No, the economy has nothing to do with 150 million of us that work our asses off every day to do better for ourselves and our family. It's engineered by one man who's been wrong on everything.
I mean, what is going on?
It's so weird.
And I just try to be logical.
What happened to us?
Is everything emanating out of that nightmarish place called Washington, D.C.,
that's run us to $34 trillion of debt?
And corruption run amok?
You know, this Santos guy is gone.
He's dropping down.
on everybody else.
It's so funny to watch.
Some woman, congressman,
Maya Lelakis, whatever,
bought a crap load of New York
City Bank or whatever the day
before they were bought out.
How the hell is that not
the number one news today?
And how is she not
in front of the SEC today?
I mean, this is what's going on.
And I hate to be whining and complaining,
but they're giving us every opportunity.
I move on.
Crypto, I don't own any.
It was up big again over the weekend.
The stocks that are involved,
first micro strategy,
which is nothing more than Bitcoin,
up another 35 bucks today to 5.63.
6%.
That coin thing was up 5%.
Even the crappier ones that traded 10 bucks
were up like 5 to 10% today.
And I'm asked, well, what do you think?
Well, I will tell you what I've said for years.
90% of the coins would go down 90% with most going to zero.
And there's 30,000 coins that are at zero.
Don't ask me why Bitcoin is...
Well, there's a few coins left standing and some real strong.
And Bitcoin's on the move.
So is Ethereum.
There is no fundamental reason.
why, but the people that are in it will tell you why. Whatever. They were crapping in their pants
while it was getting trashed into last, a year ago, and now they're geniuses again. And you know what?
I hope they make zillions. For the life of me, whatever. Have fun. That's all I can say. Technically
strong, acting well. So crypto. Oils. We continue to avoid most oils except the pipelines and a couple of stragglers.
Oils. Gold. Well, on Friday, the GLD hit a new high. Closing high. Got smacked today.
Failed the move. What's going on? Well, it's kind of simple today. Up next, we'll explain.
Get more in depth in the market.
Serenity now. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off.
The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less.
Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first.
order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium
benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer
to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One
Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See
Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a
rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't
need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now,
I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is
Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes
it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the
next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast
might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because
if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
Harkin.
Investors Edge.
He's got to be pleased with that.
The crowd is just on his feet here.
He's a Cinderella boy.
With Gary Coltbaum.
It comes highly recommended.
You're going to feel better if you talk to him.
And welcome once again to Investors Edge.
So very simple.
The dollar goes up.
Gold comes down.
The dollar comes down.
Gold goes up and the dollar is bouncing now.
That's all.
Gold got hit today because the dollar's bouncing a little bit today.
I still think the dollar trend is down.
So after the bounce, probably going to retest coming down.
And that should help gold.
So there's the gold.
Next thing.
When you have a, I'm doing a bunch of tidbits today, kids.
When you have a chance, there was a segment on 60 minutes on quantum computing.
Now, to be fair, I'd have a clue what they were saying and how it works.
But I do know what it means is computers are going to be able to do a ton more going forward.
If you have a chance, find the segment from 60 minutes on quantum computing.
I absolutely positively recommend it.
to watch. It had my interest. Next. So last week, we started to tell you that the mega-cap tech
was losing relative strength versus the broad market that was coming on. Another rough day
today, though off the lows. Nasdaq down 119, NASDAQ 100, 157. I think the NASDAQ was down 240 at one time.
today. Envidia finished down another 12 and a half today. And since so many ask about it,
what has me, gargantuan earnings and revenue growth the past two quarters and pretty much the stock
has now done nothing the past two quarters. Now we posed the reason why,
We're not saying it is, but we understand the semiconductor industry.
We do have the question on whether companies panicked.
The AI thing.
Oh, we need to buy a crap load of these chips now or it is not going to be enough.
And the thought process market believing double ordering, over ordering.
and if that is the case, oh, there's going to be less ordering going forward.
We are not saying that is the case.
We're posing the thought that that could be the case as we have seen it in the past in the semiconductor industry.
And what we go by, stock price performance.
You got a company that earnings up 429 and 593, revenues up $4.99,000, revenues up $4.953,
Revenue is up 101 and 206 year over year.
These are gargantuan.
So we keep that in our file manager.
The stock finished today sitting right on the 50-day moving average within a point or two.
It's probably a little oversold, but it is weak and losing relative strength.
We'll see what happens.
You get where we're going with this?
Facebook was down another five today.
was down 12. Mark Zuckerberg is selling stock and the market reacted to that.
Microsoft was down another five. The good news is it was down. Geez, you didn't realize this.
It was down another six bucks. It was down 11. So good comeback there. But Netflix was down 13 and that had been strong, but that stock's rolling over.
You get what we're saying here?
So Mega CapTech is under some distribution here of unknown price and time.
We're not reaching past what we're seeing, but we started telling you about it last week,
and it was not a good day again today.
That's all.
Whether or not it turns into something worse, don't know.
But we do know, historical, we've never seen.
such a concentration of power in the markets than these seven to ten names ever and the technology
percentage of the s and p is by far blows away year 2000 that in itself does not mean end of the world it does
mean, if it ever goes back to the norm, oh, these things will get hit.
And just remember, I don't care what anybody tells you.
The market doesn't give a crap about any of us.
We can go back to the year 2000, and I can tell you the 10 stocks to own for the next
decade, the next 20 years, the next 25 years, this, that they all got crushed.
Some went to Z.
Remember Lucent?
Zero. As John Vernon said in Animal House, zero point zero. So you never know. And it doesn't matter what it is. You got to remember back then, it was Intel, it was Cisco, it was Lucent, it was Nortel, it was WorldCom, it was AOL. So pay attention to your stocks. There are no laws that says
something is forever, except maybe Hershey's, which, by the way, the stock has been
trashed. So rough sledding for the mega caps, what is interesting is, as we said last Friday,
on Friday we said small and mid caps took another leg to the upside, the stair step.
With the Dow down 41, the S&P down 24, which is like the equivalent of 200 Dow points,
and the NASDAQ down 119 and the NASDAQ 100 down 157.
The Russell 2000 was up the equivalent of 360 Dow points
and the mid-cap 400 was up the equivalent of 275 Dow points.
So some of that's going on.
We mentioned to you the regional banks broke above a little range.
Regional banks are up one point something percent today.
The big banks mostly up, though down early.
We said the transports broke above range.
Transport's up 61 today.
So just letting you know, changing of the gar.
We have a changing of the guard near term.
Not necessarily saying one's going to be trashed and one's going to go big time.
What we're saying relative to each other, changing of the guard.
3M is rallying up
and Viti is croaking
How's that
3M a comatose
Dow stock is rallying
and Vidi is croaking
That's what we mean
On a relative basis
I've yet to do my scans
I did want at noon today
I got to do another one after the close
Looks okay
And the small and midcaps
keep in mind small caps leave no doubt there's a bunch of regional banks in there there have to be
it's been directing traffic for the russell 2000 both up and down i don't even have to look
you can just see it and just a lot of beaten up stuff that we told you the floor had lifted
still going on cruise lines another good day royal caribbean is in a new yearly high
the other's not even close
airlines better
and of course you know what happened with Hawaiian Air today
Alaska Air was down six bucks for the purchase
I don't get why they paid so much
but then again I don't run the joint
and they keep talking about Alaska Air
I flew it once no TV no legroom
the people were nice
up next
what else we got for you
We'll figure it out. I'm Gary. This is the one on the investor's edge.
Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.
Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.
Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer.
With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code comfort.
That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort.
Tommy John, comfort perfected.
This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.
Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,
like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.
Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase,
bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.
Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.
The Capital One Venture X card,
What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.
This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.
Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.
If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.
Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.
Start your show today at spreeker.com.
Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.
You're listening to...
What are we waiting for?
Well, what are you waiting for?
One, two, ready, go.
Action!
In The Wester's Edge.
With Gary Culpa.
So, just so you know, I'm sure it will not get to him, but I prepared an email that I am sending to the White House
that the president needs to come out in prime time to defend.
The Jewish community.
The reason why he won't?
The Muslim community came out in the last day and said,
we're not voting for you because you're not defending Palestinians.
But we're still going to send the email.
What do they say about?
We live in interesting times.
Here's what I'm watching.
On this pullback here, the semiconductor index held the 21-day moving average.
Why the 21 day?
Well, it's because it just works on a short-term basis.
The 50-day is the big macha.
That needs to hold. The good news is the losses were cut in half today.
The NASDAQ 100, the 21-day moving average, was at 15-716.
It hit within 15 points today and bounced.
The NASDAQ, the 21-day moving average is 14-014.
hit a low of 14.058.
You know what we know right now?
That's your important support.
If at any time it gets taken out,
whatever's going on in these areas that I've been mentioning,
we'll get a little bit worse.
Simple as that.
And what we do now is we gauge.
Okay, so we're getting a pullback in the mega caps and a bunch of tech,
but other tech is not pulling back and actually
was up today.
And then there's other tech that looks like
it topped.
I can tell you
something like a
simple SMCI,
maybe even a Dell.
Not Adele the singer,
Dell computer.
Well, it's now Dell Tech.
Or a rambus.
Names we think may have topped.
And the more we see of that
that indeed becomes topped, the more we know, things are getting sloppier.
But we're not there yet.
So just one rough day today for tech and NASDAQ, but definitely off the lows, which counts for something.
But then again, on the other end, the rails that have terrible earnings, terrible sales growth,
They turned the corner last week with the transports up another stair step.
They were up again today.
Some of the big financials were weak early, up again.
Regional banks, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, PNC Bank.
The housing stocks broke above range on Friday.
More today.
Let's hope it continues.
Some housing-related stuff.
like a restoration hardware, better, you know, hand in hand.
So we are in close contact with all these areas.
We're in the end of the year.
Everybody's saying rally.
We couldn't give a crap what they say.
We'll just pay attention to the market.
I know some very smart people that think this is the last hurrah
that the Russell's still down 24% from two years ago and that all the leading economic indicators are heading big time south and the market's going to start reacting to it.
Well, I got news for you.
It hasn't yet.
And I can promise you, absolutely promise you, if the market starts deciding, here comes the recession, here comes the economic downturn.
the transports aren't going to go up the economically sensitive stocks aren't going up right now they are
so just like we did on november first when we said we think things are changing and last week
when we said issues with the mega cap we're in no way shape or form thinking anything untoward just yet on an
overall basis. If that occurs, you'll know it. Because we'll tell you it. But as always,
it's your money. You get to decide what to do with it. We don't tell you what to do.
We tell you what we think. And then close our eyes, hold our nose and pray. Nope, that doesn't
work. We've tried. We've tried with our New York football giants.
We've tried with the Mets.
We've tried with the NICs since what year?
God knows how long.
Met since 86.
Nicks since 72.
Now the Giants have given us a few good years.
We can forgive them a little bit.
Yields were up today.
Just oversold.
Bouncing.
Oil was down today.
You know what we think of most oils?
And the dollar, because yields were up, was up.
to be watched.
Another area we just almost completely avoid is China.
If you look at the FXI, it's the China 50 Index.
New Yearly Low, because some of the big names,
but some of the other names, symbol PDD, symbol EDU, act well.
But something like a net tease, gross, breaks down.
Baidu and Alibaba, very important names to the index.
Trashed.
So just another area and we'll keep letting you know.
You all have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do.
Quite simple.
Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better.
You will feel better.
I promise.
Have a great evening, everybody.
Thanks for joining.
Until tomorrow.
Peace out.
Bye bye-bye.
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Gary K.
That's garyk.com
That's garyk.com
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