Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - Strength Day

Episode Date: August 29, 2023

garyK.com or https://garykaltbaum.com/Considered one of the finest radio shows on the markets, the business world and everything that affects them, Investor’s Edge with Gary Kaltbaum, a Fox News Channel Business Contributor, brings his in-depth take every day. If you want fluff, this is not the place. Gary is a hard hitting and pull-no-punches host especially when it comes to people in power affecting you and your money. His daily in-depth analysis on the markets is second to none.

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Tuesday, the 29th, I believe. Am I right? Yeah, I think so. So, 2023, hope you're having a good day. We start off the show by number one stating, if you are in the cross hairs of the hurricane, get the hell out of the way.

Life, family first, possessions, screw it. need to let you know that these hurricanes have no bias. You can be rich, you can be poor, you can be young, you can be old. They will come and get you. Prepare. Get out of its way. I still remember, I think I've told the story when Andrew hit, I think that was 04 maybe. I lived in Boca Raton.

We weren't touched. 50 miles south, about 50-60 is homestead. I went down there to help out, and it turned out a bunch of people went down there to help out. Little did we know. The place was leveled. You would have thought an Adam bomb went off. We drove around with the National Guard, and the only words that were spoken were, my goodness.

And we thought there had to be a zillion people dead. There were only, I think, from Andrew, 50 or 60 maybe, and some not directly, which tells you people did prepare, they got the heck out of their way. And that one was pretty much a surprise how bad it was at the time. And I remember when it came through. Anyway, my point is, just don't play around with it. That's my only point. It doesn't care. I'm always amazed when I see people hanging out at the beach and some people surfing the waves.

What's with that, as they say? Anyway, just get out of the way. Ladies and gentlemen, when we are starting the show, at 3.30 p.m. today because I got lots going on. But I want to do some explaining on what's going on today and what the potential for today is. That's all. Lessons, if you will. As you know, I have studied under the tutelage of people like William O'Neill, Stan Weinstein. I have other great technicians other great people in the business. On a fundamental front, I've tried to learn from Warren Buffett,

but he's Warren Buffett. But when all is said and done, we live by certain rules in the marketplace. As we've said to you on this show, certain rules. Things like, it's easiest to isolate weakness when everything is strong. why they stick out like sore thumbs it's easiest to isolate strength

when everything is weak again the sore thumbs in bare phases surprises happen to the downside in both phases surprises happen to the upside in bare phases good news gets sold off and bare news

gets crushed in both phases bad news are Teflon and good news skyrockets. What are the rules? Well, just by history, the greatest winners are those companies with the strongest earnings and revenue growth. The stronger the better and the longer the better. stocks will top out on the strongest of numbers. Why?

Because the market starts to feel out that the numbers are going to peak. And once they peak, the stocks usually had a gargantuan move and typically can be over. On the sentiment front, when you're able to read it, well and everybody is bullish it usually means everybody's bought in and the market's already had the big move and you're getting close to the party being over when everybody is bearish you're getting close and usually when everybody gets bearish you've already had big drops in the market and that means you usually getting close to the worst being over I still remember

remember, really one of the most vicious sentiment times we've had on the downside was 08. I went to the bank and took money out of the bank to put in my house. I was so worried about the banking industry. Market bottomed in three months. Within three, it was about that. And then, of course, there was 1999-2000 where certain people put out the leaders of the new world. They went down 99%. And that was put out after they already soared like crazy.

And everybody had to own internet stocks. Here's another sentiment front. Oh, the meme stocks. Yeah, just own GameStop. It's going up forever. Just own the marijuana stocks. It's going up forever. You get my point.

So that's the sentiment front. And then there are things that O'Neill came out that I want to explain a little bit because I think people don't get it very well because they just read and act without really going neck deep into the market. So there is something called the follow-through day, the confirmation day. they call it it is something O'Neill didn't actually come up with but learn from others and he caught I believe he coined that term so let me explain what that simply means it is a day

that turns the market from correction to potentially a bullish phase Notice the word potentially. What it is is after you hit a low in the market, a low, within a certain amount of days, and I'm not going to give you the number of days because those numbers of days have changed throughout the years. But I think it started in the fourth through seventh day. You get a day where the markets up. It used to be 1%. Then because of how crazy markets was, it was changed to 1.5%.

let's just say whatever it is 1% 1 and a half and volume is heavier that day than the day before hopefully very heavy now here's the problem where most people don't get

because they really don't do their homework number one just because one of those day occurs does not mean markets ready for lift-off. Why? Because a part of that rule is if in the first few days, all of a sudden they start distributing the market again, heavy volume selling, typically it's going to fail.

So what we have been told is every bullish phase had one of these follow-through days. days starting it off. But not every follow-through day turned into a bullish phase. That's number one. But there is a number two because in bare markets, you will get multiple follow-through days that fail. And how do we know they're going to fail? It's quite simple. There's nothing to buy. people that really haven't studied it well don't realize in order to have a real good one you got to be able to go into your scans and say hey i've got these oath these first 10 names these big leaders ready to break out oh and i have another 20 that are in good sound trading ranges

that can potentially and oh look at this i have another 30 on my list. So I got 60 names. So there's potential in that follow-through day. Now, why are we bringing this up today? Because as we head into the close, we may be getting one. I'll explain more. Up next, on this, the one-only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living. specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services,

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Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives,

and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast. might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

So. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. So it's a little bit of lesson day. As I speak, it's 3.41 p.m. And I can safely tell you, if nothing changes in the last 19 minutes, we will have one of these, what they call follow-through days on the NASDAQ. I'm not so sure about the S&P. I'd rather have the follow-through day on the NASDAQ because that's what we call the risk-on,

is, you know, we love NASDAQ. But the next question is, is it going to work? Is it going to have legs? Are we going to get rolling? Because just so you know, we've been correcting for a few weeks. We've kind of sort of drifted up for a few days. And then we get today. Well, how are we going to know?

Well, what's leading? Where's the strength? We know Amazon gapped up and has been filling the gap. But hanging in there. Held a 50 day. I wouldn't call that strength, but it's hanging in there. Adobe. Looks pretty darn good.

Hasn't broken out, but looks good. Volume very light today. I'm going to not sweat that too much, but it's something of note. Google, with the big gap to the upside. and Google's actually at a yearly high as I speak, though off of today's high, has a little extra volume today. NVIDIA. What I consider to be the number one stock in this whole scenario, up another 19 today, volume 28% better, and now back above the old highs of July and in the midst of the ugly reversal of last Thursday.

Oracle, moving above a range today, volume only 12% better, and then you got a bunch of names that are still below this all-important 50-day, even though, listen carefully, backtrack a little bit, the NASDAQ is back above the 50-day moving average, which is very necessary, as I speak. Apple may be turning the corner in its correction today I think there's a chance there volume 26% light Tesla probably turning the corner and almost back above the 50 day today

volume flat and that's versus its average Facebook these are all names that we follow closely right back at the 50 day volume 28% lighter than normal. How about Broadcom, one of the AI stocks,

back above the 50-day, volume 15% less than normal, but back above that all-important, 50-day moving average. And then there are a few others, but for me, those are the big ones that I think are meaningful. And also, to the good news, I got a bunch of names that are now breaking back above.

Break below, break back above. That's what you need to see. So may I state for the record, definitely better. Follow through day, but nothing is ever baked in the cake. And we'll still wake up every morning with big focus on the leaders. And if they start breaking out of range and mass with volume, that's the other clue. That's the other clue. That's when you know you're on.

to something so definitely a better day today a what they call a follow-through on the NASDAQ a confirmation day but before getting all yay here we go we're a little bit different what do they say about Missouri show me I believe the markets need to show up on a daily basis but I have have my list of importance. I have my list of names. And we'll see what happens. Remember, just because we get one of these days, a characteristic does not mean it works.

Again, bullish phases. And when we use the word phase, we're not saying 10 years, five years, three years, we'll take a month. We'll take two months. three we're just saying it provides the opportunity for better the semiconductor index another part of my equation very strong move today and has gotten back almost to the 50-day moving average and remember last thursday i mean hell it's only tuesday that was one of the most vicious one of the most vicious

reversals to the downside I have seen in a very long time. In a very long time we'll see if there's follow-through. Simple as that, we'll see if there's follow-through. So if you start reading tonight

about this, that, and the other thing and follow-through days and yay, yeah, yeah, Just remember, tomorrow's Wednesday, tomorrow's another day. Markets need to prove themselves, in my opinion, daily. And we'll know in time. Do you know how we'll know in time? The new yearly high list gets larger.

More and more names hit my screen. More and more important names breaking out of range. When I mean important, important to me is great growth companies that did $3 billion last year in revenues, but we'll do $5 billion this year. Earned $5 a share last year, but going to do $8,000 this year. That their product is so hot and in such demand, they can't make enough of them. And of course, you got to babysit it. Because as I've said, some of the best stocks will top out on their best numbers. So we're always on our guard.

So I wanted to do that today. It's $3.49 because notwithstanding a trashing into the close, we're going to end up where the NASDAQ is up a certain percentage. right now the NASDAQ 100 is 2%. The NASDAQ is about 1.7. That would qualify. And then we see what happens tomorrow. And do we have follow through?

And do we have more follow through? And do we have more follow through? And as always, how we work is very simplistic. very simplistic. If wrong, be wrong fast and be wrong small. If right, try to let them run as far as the eyes can see. Simple as that. So there's a little explanation for you.

For those of you who really follow the O'Neill, some extra rules. Much more up next on Investors' Edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the, the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition. known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,

explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify,

and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monitor your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one-stead

Step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Coltbaum. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Now, as we get towards the close, a question that may be asked, hey, Gary, you've been telling us like 60% of the market looks like crap.

Has that changed? Nope. Heck no. City group looks like crap. Wells Fargo looks like crap. A ton of the software names that just blown up, blown up. Some are bouncing today, some decently. But a lot of them look like crap.

That's where the scans come in. That's where the measuring stick comes in. Strength versus weakness. And one of the great things I love that O'Neill came up with on his charts is a relative strength line and a relative strength number. That is, how is that stock acting versus all else? And we follow that stuff kind of judiciously. Why? We believe markets are in a race. We believe there's strength and there's weakness.

And we measure that in the chart patterns, relative strength, and we measure it in sectors, names in individual sectors, and names versus the rest. And that's how we're also able to say to you, avoid this sector. avoid that sector. This one's starting to come on. This one's dead. We had a list of names that we put out in our webcast of stocks that are holding the 50-day moving average.

This all-important area. By the way, one of our biggest rules. Below the 50-day moving average, bad. Above the 50-day moving average, good. But you got to add a word. word to both, potentially bad or potentially good. And interesting enough, most of the 50-day moving average holds have popped off of it nicely. Popped off of it nicely. And you know what? How weak the market has been is because it was very, very narrow. So many stocks bludgeoned in bad

shape. Now there are some names today that fell below and now have broken back above. Guess what? They go from no potential to, hey, we can watch them from here and see what happens. But we want cream of the crop, the big strength, the relative strength. That's why we tell you daily, the greatest list you can have is this new yearly high list. Because, Because here's another rule. If a stock is going to double, triple, quadruple. If you're going to beat Gil Morales, my buddy, in 99 when he made 3 bazillion percent, you know where he found those stocks?

You know why they made bazillions of percent? Went at the new high ground and soared. That is why. So today, specifically, I already made the list of what's at new yearly highs, but then the next list will be what's within a few percent of new yearly highs. I already know which ones those are. And guess what we do next? We watch the market close, we scan, and we prepare for the next day in hopes that it's the start of something big. in hopes of start of something good.

So there are some rules for you. I wasn't sure how I wanted to do this show, but I think I did it well. Some good news today. I think part of today, the 10-year yield, what have we been telling you about that? It tanked today. That's great.

And as it tanked, the market lifted. 10 years down to 4122, hit 4358 recently. That's good news. The 10-year yield. Remember, down good, up bad. And I think that was part of the equation today. The semiconductors want to see that the socks get above the 50-day moving average, though a couple of the ETFs have. And then we repeat, all the 50-day moving averages is you take the last 50 days, add up the closes, divide by 50, and you have a smoothed outline.

And throughout history, it is a place that got defended as it ascends in a bullish phase, gets defended on pullbacks, or in bare markets, it gets sold off as it's descending. That's all. And we don't buy anything that's in descending. We buy into what we call the launching pad that hopefully turns into strong uptrends. But I repeat, the market doesn't hand you anything. You've got to work at it. You've got to be focused and you're going to be on top of it. And I know.

I know you here. Just think of a long time. Yeah, that's Wall Street. when you drop 56% in 08, did you think long term? Were you crapping in your pants? What if you were able to get out before that started? How about the 87 crash? How about before COVID hit?

How about the latest destruction of the growth stock market? What if you were able to get out beforehand because of rules, focus, hard work. They don't tell you that. Just making sure you know that. So as we draw to a close, a good day. Hopefully, it's the start. If I was to find some flies in the ointment, and I hate cliches,

so I don't know why I said flies in the ointment, because I really don't even know what that means. A lot of the movers today were on no volume, though the NASDAQ was up on volume. So we'll give it that But I repeat Tomorrow's another day And let's hope it continues

The other part that's pretty damn good There remains just a lot of doubt in this market If it wants to go higher End of the world type talk From many outlets And just remember Market doesn't give a crap about talk market doesn't give a crap about a pundit's opinion

the market's what big institutions are doing with their money and where they're placing it or we're taking where they're taking it out of our job here is to read them and then close our eyes hold our nose and pray yeah i've tried that though doesn't work no really so that's a little bit of a template for you on how we think what we do and it still ain't easy.

Psychology, physicality, the central banks, the morons in Washington, D.C. There's a litany of d'O-L-T-S, look up the word, if you don't know it,

that keep interfering in what we call free markets. Four o'clock. Markets closed. Market wrap, brought to you by investment dash models.com that's Jim Morback one of the great market timers no gray areas with the man you're either in or out of the market was proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models.com NASDAQ 238 NASDAQ 138 NASDAQ 100324. There's that follow-through

day confirmation day we'll see what comes of it. Dow is up 292 s and p 64 transports still lag in 136 the socks up a juicy 91. Advanced declines, probably as good as can be, on the New York and NASDAQ. Up next, we'll wind you up. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card.

Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.

See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster.

The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousins swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at Spreker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge Access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! Investors Edge. With Gary Culpa. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. You know, I may have to listen back to myself.

I think I did a darn good job. job the first three segments of the show ladies and gentlemen we mean business here as i look at my screens my stuff screen let's take a look good day for economically sensitive stocks how can that be consumer confidence down job number's not so good interest rates down ladies and gentlemen financials bounce today gonna look them over strong semiconductor day and i got news for you pretty much everything green defense stocks were kind of red were you do. Oils were green. They were weak early, but green. Retail, better, but I got to tell you, a lot of retail stocks are just in the toilet. Housing bounce still under the 50-day, though.

Airlines were up, but they've been trashed. Commodities bounce. Things like Reliance Steel RS right off the 50-day. Why? Guess what happens when interest rates come down? Oh, that's right, the dollar comes down. And guess what the dollar did here today? Maybe top. And as we tell you, if the dollar comes down, if the dollar comes down, if interest rates come down, it just feels like there's one heck of a cause and effect right now between the two. And therein lies today.

A very good day. In the Dow, let's see what I got to. in the Dow here before I depart. And by the way, Adam will be doing the show tomorrow. I will be on a flight, an all 12-hour flight, I believe it is. Apple up almost four. Not above the 50 day, but above the last few days, maybe turning the corner. American Express weak name, only up one.

Amgen 3, been weak. Caterpillar 5, one of the stronger names, DuPont 1, Goldman Sachs, a weaker financial. Home Depot, up three. Microsoft up foreign change. On the weak side compared to other big ones. Merck 3M, United Health, Visa Verizon, Walmart, a buck, and Nike up two, and man oh man.

Speaking a week, Nike stock has been pretty much decimated over the last, I don't know, since April. Yikes. News of the day. You know, big stories again. Just big stories. Stay well. Take care of yourself.

There'd be a hurricane. Maui's still going on. That's off the front page for a day because of the hurricane. We cannot forget that. Just take care of yourself. Take care of your family. Don't screw around. That's all.

Don't screw around. These are killers. And no hurricanes are not caused by climate change. I've been in since 1970 something. But this one's gaining strength in the Gulf. And kind of sort of looks like a direct hit into the kind of sort of little ralph of the panhandle. Hopefully it speeds up. It's going to be another one of those doozies.

And I'm trying to think what year in Orlando we had three come through in a matter of weeks. It was stunning. And one of them did like a straight right turn. Go up to midnight and make a right turn towards three o'clock. That's what happened with one of them. Was that Charlie? I'm not, hmm,

not sure. But you get my point. Back on markets. I've been saying, just watch the 10-year yield. It tanked today. Markets ripped today. Tomorrow is another day.

If you notice, I'm not excited. I'm not jumping for joy. I'm happier. earth. And I do know this. If this will get legs, it'll show me. Everything we do is what the market shows us.

Not what somebody believes. I saw an article from somebody famous today. Oh, the next few months are going to be terrible. Not exactly the most perfect day to come out with that. And then, of course, you got the perm of bulls. Didn't somebody write Dow 100,000 in the year 2000? Let me finish off by saying, I don't know what happened today, except there was some lawsuit with crypto, and Bitcoin and Ethereum went ape, you know what, to the upside today. And things like Coinbase and micro strategy, 10% moves on that lawsuit.

It had something to do with the exchange. I don't know if it's an exchange trade, a note or not. fund the GBT but that sucker was up three bucks today to 20 and a half and it's been dead money so just let you know that also woke up today how long that last beats the hell out of us and again we just think those are trading vehicles most of the 23,000 coins that were being that were tried to be foisted upon you are zero and are going to stay that way with some very fun funky names they came out with, if I do recall. And if you don't believe me, there are websites that have all 23,000 names.

Hopefully you didn't get caught. All right. Adam Tamar, we'll have some notes for him from the airplane. You have a great evening drive carefully. Stay safe. And when you get home, do like what you do, it's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Hug your children.

They'll feel better. You'll feel better. And again, stay. safe. Have a good one, everybody. Take care. Bye-bye. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.